{"id":3709,"date":"2017-11-14T01:00:00","date_gmt":"2017-11-13T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/swarma.org\/%swarma-paper%\/"},"modified":"2018-12-07T09:42:37","modified_gmt":"2018-12-07T01:42:37","slug":"%e5%b7%b4%e9%bb%8e%e5%a4%a7%e5%ad%a6%e7%89%a9%e7%90%86%e5%ad%a6%e6%95%99%e6%8e%88%e9%82%80%e8%af%b7%e4%bd%a0%e5%81%9a%e5%8e%86%e5%8f%b2%e6%af%94%e8%be%83%e5%ad%a6%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=3709","title":{"rendered":"\u5df4\u9ece\u5927\u5b66\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u9080\u8bf7\u4f60\u505a\u5386\u53f2\u6bd4\u8f83\u5b66\u7814\u7a76"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/div>\n


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\u5927\u5bb6\u597d\uff1a
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\u6211\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u6cd5\u56fd\u5df4\u9ece\u5927\u5b66<\/span><\/strong>(Pierre and Marie Curie)\u7684\u7c92\u5b50\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6Bertrand Roehner\u3002\uff08\u70b9\u51fb\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u53ef\u4ee5\u53bb\u5230\u6211\u7684\u4e3b\u9875\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n


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\u81ea\u4ece2008\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u6211\u90fd\u4f1a\u5230\u5317\u5e08\u5927\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u8bbf\u95ee\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u3002\u6211\u7ed9\u5927\u5bb6\u5199\u4fe1\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u505a\u4e00\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5929\u6587\u5b66\u548c\u5929\u4f53\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7528\u5230\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u3002<\/strong><\/span>\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u5929\u6587\u6216\u5929\u4f53\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u6307\u4e0b\u9762\u6240\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7269\u4f53\uff1a\u6052\u661f\u3001\u884c\u661f\u3001\u536b\u661f\u3001\u5f57\u661f\u3001\u4e2d\u5b50\u661f\u3001\u9ed1\u6d1e\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u6bcb\u5eb8\u7f6e\u7591\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6cd5\u5c06\u6052\u661f\u548c\u4e2d\u5b50\u661f\u653e\u5230\u4e00\u8d77\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7269\u4f53\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5229\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/span>\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u6052\u661f\u5c31\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u4e0d\u540c\u989c\u8272\u548c\u5c3a\u5bf8\u7684\u6052\u661f\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u533a\u5206\u3002\u5927\u7684\u9ec4\u8272\u7684\u6052\u661f\u4e0e\u5c0f\u7684\u84dd\u8272\u7684\u6052\u661f\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n


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\u540c\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u591a\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5206\u95e8\u522b\u7c7b\u3002\u5728\u5929\u6587\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4efb\u52a1\u8017\u8d39\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u6570\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u82b1\u8d39\u81f3\u5c11\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u672c\u4e2d\u6587\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u674e\u777f\u742a\u535a\u58eb\u548c\u6211\u5171\u540c\u5408\u4f5c\u5f00\u59cb\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f52\u7c7b\u3001\u6bd4\u8f83\u548c\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u627e\u5230\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8de8\u8d8a\u5e74\u5ea6\u548c\u56fd\u5ea6\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027\u3002<\/strong><\/span>\u8fd9\u4e00\u5de5\u4f5c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u52301993\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u8fd9\u4e00\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u66f4\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u7528\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66 USA-China: cooperation or confrontation? 
An illustration of how to conduct a scientific analysis of historical events \u300a\u79d1\u5b66\u770b\u5386\u53f2–\u5982\u4f55\u79d1\u5b66\u5730\u5206\u6790\u5386\u53f2\u4e8b\u4ef6\u300b<\/strong><\/span> \u5df2\u7ecf\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7f51\u4e0a\u514d\u8d39\u83b7\u53d6\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u6587\u7248<\/span><\/strong> (\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u6210):<\/span><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.lpthe.jussieu.fr\/~roehner\/prch.php<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u82f1\u6587<\/strong>\u7248<\/strong> <\/span>(\u57fa\u672c\u5b8c\u6210):<\/span><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.lpthe.jussieu.fr\/~roehner\/compet.pdf<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u76ee\u5f55\u5927\u7eb2 <\/span><\/p>\n


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Contents and Preface \u76ee\u5f55\u548c\u524d\u8a00 (\u521d\u7a3f\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a\u6b66\u56fd\u5b87)<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Part 1: Case studies about US vs. PRC <\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u5173\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790 <\/p>\n

Ch. 1: What motivated the attack of 11 September 2001? <\/p>\n

\u7b2c1\u7ae0\uff1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u9a71\u52a8\u4e869\/11\u6050\u6016\u88ad\u51fb\uff1f (\u521d\u7a3f\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a\u5f90\u58ec\u6377) <\/p>\n

Ch. 3: National activation in China and other countries <\/p>\n

\u7b2c3\u7ae0\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6fc0\u6d3b (\u521d\u7a3f\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a\u5218\u4f69\u4f69) <\/p>\n

Ch. 5: “The Pacific as an American lake” <\/p>\n

\u7b2c5\u7ae0\uff1a\u89c6\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5185\u6e56 (\u521d\u7a3f\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a\u5218\u4f69\u4f69) <\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Part 2: Scientific analysis of historical events: concepts <\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u6982\u5ff5 <\/p>\n

Ch. 7: Analytical history: Where history and sociology meet <\/p>\n

\u7b2c7\u7ae0\uff1a\u5386\u53f2\u5206\u6790\u5b66\uff1a\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e4b\u5408\u74a7 (\u521d\u7a3f\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a\u79e6\u5809\u6717\u3001\u5f90\u58ec\u6377\u3001\u5218\u4f69\u4f69) <\/p>\n

Ch. 8: What is to be done? <\/p>\n

\u7b2c8\u7ae0\uff1a\u8fd8\u8981\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6211\u975e\u5e38\u613f\u610f\u4e0e\u4f60\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ed9\u6211\u5199email\uff1aroehner@lpthe.jussieu.fr<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bfe\u9898\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u8bf7\u5e2e\u5fd9\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2aURL\u8f6c\u53d1\u7ed9TA\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u90fd\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u5174\u3002\u4e2d\u6587\u8bf7\u56de\u590d\u7ed9\u674e\u535a\u58eb\uff08ricklee3380@gmail.com\uff09\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5199\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u627e\u5230\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u5fd7\u8da3\u76f8\u6295\u7684\u4eba\u4ece\u800c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5de5\u4f5c\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u8d44\u52a9\uff09\u3002\u674e\u535a\u58eb\u5f88\u9ad8\u5174\u6765\u56de\u7b54\u4efb\u4f55\u548c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u6709\u5173\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u611f\u8c22\u5927\u5bb6\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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Good afternoon,<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

A researcher at the University of Paris (Pierre and Marie Curie), I have been educated as a particle physicist.<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Every year since 2008 I have been visiting the Department of Systems Science of BNU for a few months. You may wonder for what reason I’m writing to you.<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

We have developed a project concerning social systems which uses the same scientific approach as astronomy and astrophysics.<\/span><\/p>\n


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By ”<\/span>same scientific approach” I mean the following.<\/span><\/p>\n


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In the universe there are many different objects: stars, planets, satellites, comets,neutron stars, black holes and so on. Needless to say, it would make no sense to study stars and neutron stars together for these are fairly different objects.<\/span><\/p>\n


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On the contrary, it makes sense to study stars in a comparative way for this will lead to further distinctions between stars of different colors and sizes.The big yellow stars are not the same as small blue stars.<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

In the same way, there are many kinds of historicaland social events. Before they can be compared in any meaningful way, one needs to put together those which belong to the same category. In astronomy, this task took centuries, so one should expect that for social events it will also require many decades.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/div>\n

9.11\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span><\/p>\n

In a recent book written in Chinese, Dr. Ruiqi Li and myself have tried to start such a program of categorization, comparison and analysis. The goal is to find regularities which hold across time and across countries. Ever since this work started back in 1993 a number of regularities have emerged but this is only the beginning of the story. It needs to be continued.<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

In order to make such a study more interesting for our readers we have applied this methodology to the study of US-PRC relations.<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

The book is completely available on line at the following addresses.<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Chinese version<\/strong><\/span> (not yet completely finished):<\/span><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.lpthe.jussieu.fr\/~roehner\/prch.php<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

English version<\/span><\/strong> (almost finished): http:\/\/www.lpthe.jussieu.fr\/~roehner\/compet.pdf<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

(if these webpages do not open, please let us know; for the first one must wait a few seconds for the download)<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

I would be happy to have further discussions at any moment at your best convenience. You can email me at: roehner@lpthe.jussieu.fr.<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

If you have friends who might be interested don’t hesitate to forward the URLs to them. Needless to say, we would be quite interested in any feedback. Feedback in Chinese should of course be sent to Dr. Li (rickylee3380@gmail.com).<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Actually, with this book our main goal is to find a few persons who are sufficientlyconvinced by this approach to continue the work that we have started (some funding is available to start this project). Dr. Li would be happy to answer any question about this project.<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

With all my best wishes,<\/span><\/p>\n

Bertrand Roehner<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\u7684\u9057\u4ea7\uff1a\u5bfb\u627e\u4eba\u5de5\u751f\u547d\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6839\u6e90<\/strong><\/a>
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Google AutoML\u9879\u76ee\uff1a\u81ea\u521b\u751f\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5<\/a><\/strong>
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\u767e\u8bcd\u65a9\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u601d\u7ef4 | \u5f20\u6c5f<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5f15\u529b\u3001\u91cf\u5b50\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u5bf9\u8bdd | \u5c24\u4ea6\u5e84<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span>
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\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7f16\u7a0b<\/strong><\/a>
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\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60<\/a><\/strong>
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\u7528\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u89e3\u8bfb\u91cf\u5b50\u5b87\u5b99\u5965\u79d8<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\uff0d\u672a\u6765\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u5b66\u79d1\uff1f<\/strong><\/a>
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\u8bed\u8a00\u4e2d\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u51e0\u4f55 | \u5f20\u6c5f<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7edf\u4e00\u4e4b\u8def\uff1a\u91cf\u5b50\u7ea0\u7f20\u3001\u65f6\u7a7a\u51e0\u4f55\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u3001\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7684\u78b0\u649e <\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u96c6\u667aQQ\u7fa4\uff5c292641157<\/span><\/strong>
<\/p>\n

\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\uff5czhangqian@swarma.org<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cwangting@swarma.org<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/section>\n

\u641c\u7d22\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u52a0\u5165\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a \u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8 <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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