{"id":37137,"date":"2022-09-08T23:06:11","date_gmt":"2022-09-08T15:06:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=37137"},"modified":"2022-09-08T23:06:11","modified_gmt":"2022-09-08T15:06:11","slug":"%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e6%80%a7%ef%bc%8c%e4%ba%92%e8%81%94%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%8e%e9%9f%a7%e6%80%a7%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e8%8c%83%e5%bc%8f%e8%bd%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=37137","title":{"rendered":"\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u4e92\u8054\u6027\u4e0e\u97e7\u6027\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u9700\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8303\u5f0f\u8f6c\u79fb\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b0\u51a0\u6d41\u884c\u548c\u672a\u6765\u51b2\u51fb"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4eba\u9020\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u52a0\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u51b2\u51fb\u548c\u4e2d\u65ad\u65f6\u7684\u97e7\u6027\uff08Resilience\uff09\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u5728\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u5f88\u96be\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u76f8\u534f\u8c03\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e5\u76ca\u590d\u6742\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u805a\u5408\u73b0\u8c61\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u65e2\u4e0d\u5904\u5728\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5411\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u9760\u62e2\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u8303\u5f0f\u6765\u6784\u5efa\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u66f4\u5177\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c06\u5206\u6790\u7f6e\u4e8e\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u7f51\u7edc\u89c6\u89d2\u4e2d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u65e2\u9700\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5de5\u5177\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u5728\u5206\u6790\u3001\u4fee\u8f9e\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b9e\u8df5\u6574\u5408\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u3001\u5de5\u7a0b\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u5173\u952e\u9886\u57df\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4f4d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n


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William Hynes, Benjamin D. Trump, Alan Kirman, Clara Latini & Igor Linkov<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5218\u57f9\u6e90<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9093\u4e00\u96ea<\/span> <\/span>| <\/strong><\/span>\u7f16\u8f91<\/strong><\/p>\n


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Complexity, Interconnectedness and Resilience: Why a Paradigm Shift in Economics is Needed to Deal with Covid 19 and Future Shocks<\/span><\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/link.springer.com\/chapter\/10.1007\/978-3-030-71587-8_5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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Covid-19\u75ab\u60c5\u6270\u4e71\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7f51\u7edc\u5230\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u5a31\u4e50\u3001\u9152\u5e97\u548c\u96f6\u552e\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6d88\u8d39<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020a\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4eba\u9020\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u5185\u751f\u538b\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7834\u574f\u53ef\u80fd\u6765\u81ea\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u90e8\uff0c\u59822008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u6216\u5916\u90e8\uff0c\u5982Covid-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u884c\u4e3a\u53d1\u751f\u6839\u672c\u6027\u548c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6027\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6216\u5371\u673a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u4e8e\u673a\u6784\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d85\u51fa\u56fd\u5bb6\u76d1\u7ba1\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u5883\u5185\u548c\u8de8\u5883\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u800c\u88ab\u653e\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u4f55\u4e3a\u6b63\u7edf\u89c2\u5ff5\u5e76\u4e0d\u50cf\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u90a3\u6837\u660e\u786e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b66\u754c\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u548c\u8ffd\u6c42\u7740\u591a\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d9\u4e8b\u7ecf\u5e38\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5728\u4e0a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u30021929\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u5d29\u76d8\u548c\u5927\u8427\u6761\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6d3e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7edf\u6cbb\u6027\u7684\u8303\u5f0f\u3002\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5c06\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u4e1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5e76\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u201c\u798f\u5229\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u798f\u5229\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u8fdb\u884c\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u57281970\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u6ede\u80c0\uff0c\u5373\u7ecf\u6d4e\u505c\u6ede\u548c\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u65e2\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u63d0\u4f9b\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e3a\u77f3\u6cb9\u5371\u673a\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u51b2\u51fb\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b66\u6d3e\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u6027\u65b0\u8303\u5f0f\u3002\u5728\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5b66\u6d3e\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u652f\u6301\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u5173\u6ce8\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u653e\u677e\u5bf9\u5546\u4e1a\u7684\u7ba1\u5236\u548c\u51cf\u7a0e\u3002\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u6469\u64e6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7ade\u4e89\u662f\u8d8a\u201c\u5b8c\u7f8e\u201d\u8d8a\u597d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u6ca1\u6709\u5145\u5206\u8003\u8651\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u73af\u5883\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u6216\u793e\u4f1a\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u4ece1970\u5e74\u4ee3\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\u6240\u8bc1\u660e\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u6781\u7aef\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4eba\u4e3a\u6392\u653e\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6b63\u5728\u4ea7\u751f\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u8ffd\u6c42\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u5145\u5206\u8003\u8651\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u57282008\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u8bb8\u591a\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u663e\u8457\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u52a8\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u548c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u653e\u677e\u7ba1\u5236\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9f13\u52b1\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u5f53\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u601d\u60f3\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9ad8\u6548\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ee1\u8d1f\u8377\u8fd0\u8f6c\uff0c\u5728\u6062\u590d\u5e73\u8861\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e72\u6270\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u52a8\u6001\u968f\u673a\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\uff08dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, DSGE\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u9690\u55bb\u5730\u5c06\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6784\u5efa\u4e3a\u4e00\u53f0\u673a\u5668\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u4e14\u76f8\u5bf9\u6052\u5b9a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u4e0e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u6027<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020a\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u548c\u65b0\u51a0\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5d29\u574f\uff0c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e86\u5747\u8861\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u673a\u6784\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7cfb\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u7b80\u5316\u7684\u3002Richard Bookstaber \u7684\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u672b\u65e5\u56db\u9a91\u58eb\u201d<\/strong>\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u5047\u8bbe\u7f3a\u9677\uff1a\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e0d\u53ef\u7ea6\u6027\u3001\u6d8c\u73b0\u6027\u3001\u975e\u904d\u5386\u6027\u548c\u6839\u672c\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Bookstaber 2017\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u6307\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u793a\u4e2d\u7684\u9057\u6f0f\u548c\u672a\u80fd\u9884\u89c1\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u6216\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c4\u6a21\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u8fd8\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u73b0\u5b9e\u5fc5\u987b\u5b58\u5728\u624d\u80fd\u88ab\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e0d\u53ef\u7ea6\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Computationally irreducible systems\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u8fd0\u52a8\u65b9\u7a0b\u6765\u6982\u62ec\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u88ab\u88ab\u68c0\u6d4b\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u9010\u671f\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u4ee5\u627e\u51fa\u5b9e\u9645\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66 Doyne Farmer \u628a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0e\u5bb6\u5ead\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff0820 \u4ebf\u5bb6\u5ead\u300133 \u4ebf\u5de5\u4eba\u548c\u53ca\u5176\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u4ea7\u54c1\u95f4\u7684\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u94fe\u63a5\uff09<\/span>\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u5168\u7403\u751f\u4ea7\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff085000\u4e07\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7269\u7406\u94fe\u63a5\uff09<\/span>\uff1b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u94fe\u63a5\u7684\u5951\u7ea6\u4e4b\u7f51\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u79cd\u5c11\u6570\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u51e0\u4e4e\u62e5\u6709\u4e00\u5207\u7684\u6240\u6709\u6743\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7528\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\u6765\u8868\u793a\u8fd9\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61<\/span>\uff08Emergent phenomena\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u5176\u4e2d\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4ea7\u751f\u504f\u79bb\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f1a\u62b5\u6d88\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u751a\u81f3\u7ed9\u5b83\u4eec\u5e26\u6765\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u8e29\u8e0f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u5728\u53d7\u5230\u5916\u6765\u51b2\u51fb\u504f\u79bb\u8f68\u9053\u65f6\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u80fd\u591f\u81ea\u6211\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u9519\u7efc\u590d\u6742\u4e14\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e2a\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u7279\u6027\u548c\u5185\u751f\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u975e\u904d\u5386\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Non-ergodic systems\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e25\u91cd\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u548c\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u90fd\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0e\u6b64\u524d\u76f8\u4f3c\u60c5\u5f62\u9aa4\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\uff08Fullenkamp 2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4e0e\u8fc7\u53bb\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/span>\uff08radical uncertainty\uff0c\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3a\u672b\u65e5\u56db\u9a91\u58eb\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9a91\u58eb\uff09<\/span>\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5404\u79cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c\u5e72\u6270\u7684\u6982\u7387\u672a\u77e5\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7a7a\u95f4\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u5df2\u77e5\u7684<\/span>\uff08Fullenkamp 2019\uff09<\/span>\u30022018\u5e74\uff0c\u524d\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u7279\u91cc\u8c22<\/span>\uff08Trichet 2010\uff09<\/span>\u56de\u5fc6\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4ed6\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u5de5\u5177\u5bf9\u89e3\u51b3\u5176\u673a\u6784\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u6311\u6218\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u7528\u5904<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020a\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5173\u4e8e\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9700\u8981\u91cd\u5927\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u4f46\u4e3b\u8981\u5e94\u8be5\u901a\u8fc7\u6269\u5c55\u548c\u4fee\u6539\u73b0\u6709\u6846\u67b6\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5747\u8861\u4f53\u7cfb\u201d\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u4fdd\u7559\uff0c\u4f46\u5e94\u5f15\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u8003\u8651\u5404\u79cd\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u7075\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u5e94\u8be5\u91cd\u65b0\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u5229\u7528<\/span>\uff08Beinhocker & Hanauer 2014\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u8bb8\u591a\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u91cd\u6784\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u5e94\u8be5\u653e\u5f03\u5747\u8861\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u8f6c\u800c\u652f\u6301\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u3001\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u3001\u53cd\u8eab\u6027\u548c\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u9ad8\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08\u7b26\u5408\uff09<\/span>\u884c\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u91c7\u7528\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5982\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u6a21\u62df\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5927\u6570\u636e\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bb8\u591a\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ee7\u7eed\u4f9d\u8d56\u52a8\u6001\u968f\u673a\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08DSGE\uff09<\/span>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u6267\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5efa\u6a21\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u8bf8\u5982\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u3001\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u73b0\u5728\u90fd\u666e\u904d\u63a5\u53d7\uff1a\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u4eba\u3001\u9897\u7c92\u8fd8\u662f\u5206\u5b50\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0e\u5b64\u7acb\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e73\u5747\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u90a3\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020a\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b66\u79d1\u5982\u4eca\u90fd\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u7531\u76f8\u5173\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u590d\u6742\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u4f46\u8bb8\u591a\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u4ecd\u7136\u6c89\u6d78\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u201c\u7406\u8bba\u683c\u8a00\u201d\u4e2d\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7406\u6027\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f18\u5316\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5b64\u7acb\u4e00\u8eab\u6216\u5904\u4e8e\u4eba\u7fa4\u7686\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ece\u5176\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u63a8\u6f14\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8303\u5f0f\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u826f\u597d\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u00b7\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee<\/span>\uff08Andersen 1972\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u201c\u591a\u8005\u5f02\u4e5f\u201d\uff08More is Different\uff09\u3002\u968f\u7740\u4e92\u52a8\u5355\u4f4d\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86<\/strong>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u5ffd\u7565\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d70\u5411\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u97e7\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u7b80\u79f0\u4e3a<\/span>\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u97e7\u6027\uff0csystem resilience\u201d<\/strong><\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5e94\u5bf9 Covid-19 \u6240\u5e26\u6765\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u540e\u679c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5ffd\u89c6\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c5e\u6027\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u3001\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u5728\u6784\u5efa\u97e7\u6027\u7cfb\u7edf\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7edd\u975e\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6b21\u8981\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf<\/strong>\u3002\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u62e5\u62b1\u8de8\u90e8\u95e8\u3001\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u6070\u5f53\u5730\u8003\u8651\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u94fe\u63a5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u4e13\u4e1a\u7684\u3001\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u3001\u673a\u6784\u7684\u201c\u5b64\u5c9b\u201d\u5185\u88ab\u5355\u72ec\u89e3\u51b3<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020b\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u7cfb\u7edf\u601d\u7ef4\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5355\u72ec\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c6\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u90e8<\/span>\uff08\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u8fde\u63a5\uff0c\u6765\u5145\u5206\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4e92\u8054\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u548c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5f00\u53d1\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4ea4\u53c9\u6548\u5e94\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u5185\u751f\u5730\u518d\u73b0\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u53d7\u4f9b\u5e94\u6216\u9700\u6c42\u51b2\u51fb\u7b49\u5916\u90e8\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u8303\u5f0f\u8f6c\u79fb\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u673a\u4f1a\uff1a\u4ee5\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u201d\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u8303\u5f0f\u8f6c\u79fb<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u5957\u80fd\u591f\u53cd\u6620\u5f53\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u8def\u5f84\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u62d3\u5c55\u5de5\u5177\u7bb1\uff0c\u5e76\u5141\u8bb8\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u5236\u5b9a\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u653f\u7b56<\/span>\uff08Ramos et al. 2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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3. \u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c6\u89d2\u770b\u65b0\u51a0\u5927\u6d41\u884c<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5728\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u725b\u987f\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd0\u52a8\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u7531\u73af\u5883\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7cfb\u6240\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0d\u65ad\u91cd\u65b0\u914d\u7f6e\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u5f71\u54cd\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u6270\u52a8\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u6765\u4f20\u64ad\u548c\u653e\u5927\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u51fa\u6700\u521d\u6270\u52a8\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u5730\u70b9\u548c\u89c4\u6a21\u30022007-2008\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u5347\u7ea7\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u94f6\u884c\u4f53\u7cfb\u30022008\u5e74\u5371\u673a\u7684\u540e\u679c\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u540e\u4ecd\u6709\u4f53\u611f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u8361<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020b\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

Covid-19\u5371\u673a\u662f<\/span>\uff08\u5b50\uff09<\/span>\u7cfb\u7edf\u95f4\u5982\u4f55\u76f8\u4e92\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u8bc1\u3002\u4e0e\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u7206\u53d1\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u75c5\u6bd2\u4ece\u52a8\u7269\u4f20\u64ad\u7ed9\u4eba\u7c7b\u3002\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u8be6\u7ec6\u5730\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u5e2e\u52a9\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4eba\u755c\u5171\u60a3\u75c5\u53ef\u80fd\u53d8\u5f97\u5982\u6b64\u5177\u6709\u7834\u574f\u6027\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\u5bf9\u571f\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u60ef\u4f8b\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u6b62\u6b65\u4e8e\u5373\u65f6\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e89\u8fa9\uff0c2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4f7f2020\u5e74\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u5371\u673a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u662f\u7d27\u7f29\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u4f7f\u8bb8\u591a\u536b\u751f\u7cfb\u7edf\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e94\u5bf9\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u91cf\u7a81\u7136\u610f\u5916\u6fc0\u589e\u6240\u9700\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u5982\u9632\u62a4\u670d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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Covid-19\u5371\u673a\u8fd8\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\uff0c\u4e3b\u89c2\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5bf9\u673a\u6784\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u4ee5\u53ca\u9075\u5faa\u5176\u5efa\u8bae\u548c\u6307\u793a\u7684\u610f\u613f\uff0c\u6216\u793e\u533a\u5f52\u5c5e\u611f\uff09<\/span>\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u707e\u96be\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u8981\u5145\u5206\u4e86\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u7efc\u5408\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u9014\u5f84\u2014\u2014\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u63cf\u7ed8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7cfb\u5982\u4f55\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u56fe\u666f\uff0c\u5e76\u5e2e\u52a9\u5851\u9020\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08system of systems\uff09\u201d<\/strong>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u601d\u7ef4\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u786e\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u8bd5\u56fe\u5851\u9020\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u73af\u5883\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5173\u952e\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u7684\u3001\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u627e\u5230\u5e72\u9884\u70b9\u3002\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5f3a\u8c03\u7cfb\u7edf\u9762\u5bf9\u5404\u79cd\u51b2\u51fb\u548c\u538b\u529b\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u2014\u2014\u7cfb\u7edf\u97e7\u6027\u4f7f\u7cfb\u7edf\u80fd\u591f\u4ece\u529f\u80fd\u4e27\u5931\u4e2d\u6062\u590d\uff0c\u5e76\u9002\u5e94\u6709\u5173\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u65b0\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u98ce\u9669<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020b\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u5b66\u4f1a\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587<\/span>\uff08Johnson et al. 2020\uff09<\/span>\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u65b0\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u7531\u6765\u81ea\u52a8\u7269\u5bbf\u4e3b\u7684\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u3002\u800c\u52a8\u7269\u7269\u79cd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u2014\u2014\u4e0d\u4ec5\u52a8\u7269\u6570\u91cf\u5728\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u901a\u8fc7\u9002\u5e94\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u751f\u6001\u73af\u5883\u6765\u6269\u5927\u5176\u4f20\u64ad\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u53d8\u5316<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5f15\u5165\u96c6\u7ea6\u519c\u4e1a\uff09<\/span>\u800c\u5bf9\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5728\u9020\u6210\u6216\u52a0\u5267\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u98ce\u9669\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e00\u9879\u9488\u5bf9\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u51fa\uff0c\u81ea 1940 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u96c6\u7ea6\u519c\u4e1a\u4e0e25% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u4ee5\u53ca\u534a\u6570\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u7531\u52a8\u7269\u4f20\u67d3\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6709\u5173<\/span>\uff08Rohr et al. 2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

Ferguson\u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082020\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5bf9 Covid-19 \u6269\u6563\u7684\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5982\u679c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u536b\u751f\u670d\u52a1\u5c06\u4e0d\u582a\u91cd\u8d1f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34 500000 \u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u9650\u5236\u3002<\/span>\uff08\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u671f\uff09<\/span>\u4f7f\u7528\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5c06\u6709 220 \u4e07\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u5728\u5b66\u8005\u4e0e\u767d\u5bab\u5206\u4eab\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u793e\u4ea4\u8ddd\u79bb\u7684\u65b0\u6307\u5357\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6 Joshua Epstein \u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u91cd\u70b9\u662fCovid-19\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u611f\u67d3\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\uff08\u7531\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u4ea7\u751f\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\uff08\u7531\u6050\u60e7\u4ea7\u751f\uff09<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u8026\u5408\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff1a\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u548c\u5bf9\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u6050\u60e7<\/span>\uff08\u5f71\u54cd\u5065\u5eb7\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u884c\u4e3a\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5982\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u4e2a\u4eba\u901a\u8fc7\u63a5\u89e6\u75be\u75c5\u611f\u67d3\u8005<\/span>\uff08\u75c5\u4eba\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u6050\u60e7\u611f\u67d3\u8005<\/span>\uff08\u6050\u60e7\u8005\uff09<\/span>\u4ee5\u53ca\u90a3\u4e9b\u540c\u65f6\u611f\u67d3\u6050\u60e7\u548c\u611f\u67d3\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u4eba<\/span>\uff08\u75c5\u4eba\u548c\u6050\u60e7\u8005\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u611f\u67d3\u6050\u60e7\u3002\u53d7\u6050\u60e7\u60ca\u6270\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u2014\u2014\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u751f\u75c5\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6982\u7387\u9000\u51fa\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u75be\u75c5\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e2a\u4f53\u4ece\u6050\u60e7\u4e2d\u6062\u590d\u5e76\u6062\u590d\u8fdb\u5165\u4f20\u64ad\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u75be\u75c5\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u4e30\u5bcc\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u591a\u6b21\u611f\u67d3\u6ce2\uff0c\u4f8b\u59821918\u5e74\u6d41\u611f\u5927\u6d41\u884c<\/span>\uff08Epstein 2014\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\u52a8\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bba\u70b9\u3002\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u548c\u5bf9\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u5fc3\u6001\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u201c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u201d\u662f\u534f\u540c\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e5f\u968f\u4e4b\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316<\/strong>\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u53d8\u5316\u6240\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u65e2\u4e0d\u53d7\u75c5\u6bd2\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53d7\u5bf9\u75c5\u6bd2\u6050\u60e7\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u3002<\/strong>\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7a7a\u524d\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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4. \u7cfb\u7edf\u601d\u7ef4\u4e0e\u97e7\u6027\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fc3\u8fdb\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u6574\u5408\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u798f\u7949\u4ee5\u53ca\u6280\u672f\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u601d\u7ef4\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5e76\u6539\u8fdb\u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u5e72\u9884\u540e\u679c\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u6027\u4f7f\u5404\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u5e7f\u6cdb\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u548c\u7ea7\u8054\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6545\u969c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020b\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

\u5e94\u5bf9\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u4ece\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u7740\u624b\uff1a\u89e3\u51b3\u773c\u524d\u7684\u5173\u5207\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u65b9\u6cd5\u89e3\u51b3\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u7a81\u51fa\u7684\u957f\u671f\u95ee\u9898<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u786e\u5b9a\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u548c\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u5e2e\u52a9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u4ed6\u4eba\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u8c03\u5728\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u76ee\u6807\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u8270\u96be\u7684\u6743\u8861\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u3002\u4ece\u957f\u8fdc\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u653f\u7b56\u8981\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u79cd\u5bf9\u91cd\u5927\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8d77\u6e90\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u4f5c\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002Covid-19 \u5371\u673a\u8fd8\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u610f\u5916\u52a8\u8361\u963b\u6b62\u5176\u6b63\u5e38\u8fd0\u884c\u65f6\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u8d44\u6e90\u50a8\u5907\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u91cd\u8981<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5236\u5ea6\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\uff0c\u6b64\u6b21\u75ab\u60c5\u8fd8\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u52a0\u5f3a\u56fd\u9645\u5408\u4f5c\u4ee5\u8bc1\u636e\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5a01\u80c1\u5e76\u907f\u514d\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728 Covid-19 \u5927\u6d41\u884c\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u97e7\u6027\/\u7cfb\u7edf\u590d\u539f\u529b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u90fd\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u91c7\u53d6\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u3001\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u589e\u5f3a\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u5982\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u3001\u5168\u7403\u79fb\u6c11\u548c\u6570\u5b57\u5316\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u7834\u574f\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7cfb\u7edf\u5e76\u4ea7\u751f\u6301\u4e45\u540e\u679c\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u800c\u6b63\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e3b\u8981\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u5f3a\u5316\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u7834\u574f\u4e4b\u524d\u6d88\u5316\u6389\u5a01\u80c1<\/strong>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u5fc5\u987b\u5904\u7406\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4e0d\u5408\u9002\u7684\u3001\u6210\u672c\u6602\u8d35\u7684\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e24\u8005\u517c\u800c\u6709\u4e4b\u3002\u867d\u7136\u57fa\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u5f3a\u5316\u201d\u6765\u51cf\u5c11\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u66b4\u9732\uff0c\u4f46\u97e7\u6027\u65b9\u6cd5\u5047\u5b9a\u51b2\u51fb\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\uff08\u6301\u7eed\uff09\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u8c03\u6062\u590d\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u8c03\u6574<\/strong><\/span>\uff08J\u00fcttner & Maklan 2011; Trump et al. 2018; Linkov et al. 2018a, b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u65e2\u4e0d\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u8868\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5145\u5206\u5f3a\u5316\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u514d\u53d7\u524d\u65b9\u5371\u673a\u8513\u5ef6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020a\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u57fa\u4e8e\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u7403\u8870\u9000\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\u4f20\u67d3\u8303\u56f4<\/strong>\uff0c\u5e76\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e 2008 \u5e74\u5371\u673a\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u9ad8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89c4\u6a21\u672c\u00b7\u4f2f\u5357\u514b<\/span>\uff08Ben Bernanke\uff09<\/span>\u540c\u610f\u8fd9\u4e00\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u6807\u51c6\u6a21\u578b\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u201d\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u96be\u4ee5\u5145\u5206\u9884\u6d4b\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u786e\u4fdd\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u5177\u6709\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u591a\u7684\u81ea\u52a8\u9632\u6545\u969c\u88c5\u7f6e\u548c\u5907\u4efd\u5b89\u6392\u201d<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Bernanke 2010\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u7cfb\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4fc3\u8fdb\u8de8\u90e8\u95e8\u3001\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\uff1a\u5b83\u6253\u901a\u201c\u5b64\u5c9b\u201d\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u94fe\u63a5\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fc3\u8fdb\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u6574\u5408\u591a\u79cd\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u798f\u5229\u4ee5\u53ca\u6280\u672f\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u601d\u7ef4\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5e76\u6539\u8fdb\u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u5e72\u9884\u540e\u679c\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

Covid-19\u7b49\u4e25\u91cd\u75be\u75c5\u7206\u53d1\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u7279\u6027\u3002\u6d8c\u73b0\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8bb8\u591a\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u8005\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6709\u610f\u521b\u9020\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002<\/strong>Helbing<\/span>\uff082013\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u4eba\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u672a\u80fd\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u5168\u7403\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b0\u6700\u5927\u6548\u7387\u548c\u6700\u4f18\u5316\uff0c\u6b64\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u62b5\u5fa1\u5e72\u6270\u7684\u80fd\u529b<\/span>\uff08Marchese et al., 2012; Linkov et al. 2020\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6765\u5e72\u6270\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u516c\u4f17\u548c\u73af\u5883\u5904\u4e8e\u865a\u5f31\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u5de5\u4e1a\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u5411\u66f4\u5c0f\u3001\u66f4\u9ad8\u6548\u7684\u90e8\u95e8\u96c6\u4e2d\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u56fd\u9645\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5229\u6da6\u4e30\u539a\u4f46\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea4\u6d41\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e2d\u65ad\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u9886\u57df\u4ea7\u751f\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/strong>\u867d\u7136\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u805a\u96c6\u548c\u4f18\u5316\u4f9b\u4e86\u76f8\u5f53\u591a\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u6240\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u56fd\u9645\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff09<\/span>\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u7a81\u53d1\u610f\u5916\u4e2d\u65ad\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6216\u4e24\u8005\u7ed3\u5408<\/span>\uff08J\u00fcttner & Maklan 2011; OECD & FAO 2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c2011 \u5e74\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u5730\u9707\u548c\u6d77\u5578\u66b4\u9732\u4e86\u5373\u65f6\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u3001\u591a\u6837\u5316\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u7684\u91cd\u8981<\/span>\uff08Fujimoto 2011; Golan et al. 2020\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u81ea 2007 \u5e74\u81f3 2009 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e3b\u6d41\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5145\u5206\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u6b64\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u5728\u62bd\u8c61\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Andrew Haldance\u5728 2009 \u5e74\u786e\u5b9e\u8fa9\u79f0\u201c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u4ee5\u53ca\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u89e3\u4f53\u2014\u2014\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u90fd\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u7f51\u7edc\u5bb6\u65cf\u6811\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5206\u652f\u201d<\/span>\uff08Haldane 2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u9996\u5148\u5173\u6ce8\u54ea\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u7834\u574f\u4f1a\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5f15\u53d1\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u8fde\u4e32\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al.\uff0c2020b\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e94\u53d8\u80fd\u529b\u707e\u96be\u5e94\u53d8\u80fd\u529b\uff08\u5373\u97e7\u6027\uff09\u76f4\u662f\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u95e8\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u90e8\u95e8\u3002<\/strong>\u97e7\u6027\u5fc5\u987b\u6210\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7406\u5ff5\u548c\u5206\u6790\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u50cf Covid-19 \u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e2d\u65ad\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7ee7\u7eed\u8fd0\u4f5c\u3002\u97e7\u6027\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4f9d\u9760\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fd0\u8425\u5546\u9884\u9632\u3001\u907f\u514d\u3001\u627f\u53d7\u548c\u5438\u6536\u4efb\u610f\u548c\u6240\u6709\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5f3a\u8c03\u6062\u590d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u4e2d\u65ad\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u6f5c\u529b<\/strong><\/span>\uff08<\/strong>Linkov et al. 2021\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u97e7\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5145\u5206\u9884\u6d4b\u8861\u91cf\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u97e7\u6027\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4e2d\u65ad\u53ef\u80fd\u800c\u4e14\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u7cfb\u7edf\u5fc5\u987b\u5177\u5907\u6062\u590d\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u8003\u8651\u52a0\u5f3a\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u8003\u8651\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5173\u952e\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5982\u4f55\u5438\u6536\u548c\u51cf\u8f7b\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u5b83\u4eec\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u9002\u5e94<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Linkov et al. 2018a, b; Ganin et al. 2016, 2017\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

Covid-19 \u7206\u53d1\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u7ed9\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u4e5f\u7ed9\u5730\u7403\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6765\u4e86\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u6b63\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u5438\u6536\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u4f46\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5c06\u53ca\u4f1a\u65f6\u514b\u670d\u5371\u673a\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u590d\u82cf\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u610f\u5916\u52a8\u8361\u963b\u6b62\u5176\u6b63\u5e38\u8fd0\u4f5c\u65f6\uff0c\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u6e90\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u91cd\u8981<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u907f\u514d\u8017\u5c3d\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u2014\u2014\u9700\u8981\u52a0\u5f3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5408\u4f5c<\/span>\uff08\u4ee5\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u5e94\u6025\u51c6\u5907\u6846\u67b6\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4ee5\u589e\u5f3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u97e7\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u51fa\u5efa\u7acb\u7cfb\u7edf\u97e7\u6027\u4ee5\u904f\u5236\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\uff081\uff09\u786e\u4fdd\u5305\u62ec\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3001\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u548c\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u5185\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e3a\u5177\u6709\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u6062\u590d\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\uff082\uff09\u5236\u5b9a\u91cf\u5316\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u660e\u786e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6548\u7387\u548c\u97e7\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6743\u8861\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u5bfc\u91d1\u878d\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\uff083\uff09\u901a\u8fc7\u89e3\u8026\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u94fe\u63a5\u5e76\u4f7f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u94fe\u63a5\u53ef\u63a7\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u7cfb\u7edf\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u5730\u51cf\u5c11\u610f\u5916\u4e2d\u65ad\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u6545\u969c\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\uff084\uff09\u901a\u8fc7\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8de8\u4e92\u8fde\u57fa\u7840\u67b6\u6784\u7684\u9002\u5f53\u8fde\u63a5\u548c\u901a\u4fe1\uff0c\u6765\u7ba1\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\uff085\uff09\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u5173\u952e\u7ec4\u4ef6\u4e2d\u6dfb\u52a0\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u5197\u4f59\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u529f\u80fd\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

\uff086\uff09\u5f00\u53d1\u96c6\u6210\u6570\u636e\u548c\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u51b3\u7b56\u652f\u6301\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5e76\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b9e\u65f6\u660e\u786e\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6743\u8861\u9009\u62e9\u66ff\u4ee3\u7ba1\u7406\u65b9\u6848\u3002\uff08Hynes et al. 2020a, b\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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5. \u7ed3\u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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2015\u5e74\uff0c\u6bd4\u5c14\u00b7\u76d6\u8328\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u75ab\u60c5\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u201d<\/span>\uff08Gates 2015\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u8bae\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u652f\u7531\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u4e13\u5bb6\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u961f\u4f0d\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u5371\u673a\u6216\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u30022700\u4e07\u4eba\u89c2\u770b\u4e86\u4ed6\u53d1\u8868\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2\uff0c\u4f46\u6b63\u5982\u4ed6\u57282020\u5e74\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u5f53\u6743\u8005\u542c\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u573a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u52a8\u8361\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u672c\u7740\u76d6\u8328\u53f7\u53ec\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u51b3\u7b56\u5e94\u8005\u7740\u773c\u4e8e\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u51c6\u5907\u548c\u5efa\u7acb\u5e94\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5371\u673a\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6839\u672c\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f7f\u5f97\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u5371\u673a\u5c06\u6765\u81ea\u54ea\u91cc\uff1b\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u5e94\u963b\u6b62\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u4e3a\u4eca\u540e\u5236\u5b9a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002Covid-19\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6559\u8bad\u662f\uff0c\u5371\u673a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ee5\u539f\u6765\u7684\u6837\u5b50\u91cd\u6f14\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u904f\u5236\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u5982SARS\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5bfc\u81f4\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u9884\u81ea\u8eab\u9632\u4efb\u4f55\u672a\u6765\u5371\u673a\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u611f\u5230\u81ea\u6ee1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u5bf9\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e25\u91cd\u5371\u673a\u2014\u2014\u2014\u6c14\u5019\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u4e5f\u611f\u5230\u81ea\u6ee1\u3002\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u2014\u2014\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7a81\u7136\u548c\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\uff0c\u800c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u538b\u529b\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u5206\u6790\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5e94\u529b\u662f\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u5730\u6b63\u5e38\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ea\u662f\u7f13\u6162\u9000\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e0\u6cd5\u6062\u590d\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5d29\u6e83\u5f97\u53ef\u80fd\u975e\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6839\u672c\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f7f\u5f97\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u5371\u673a\u5c06\u6765\u81ea\u54ea\u91cc\uff1b\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u5e94\u963b\u6b62\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u4e3a\u4eca\u540e\u5236\u5b9a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002Covid-19\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6559\u8bad\u662f\uff0c\u5371\u673a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u91cd\u6f14\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u904f\u5236\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u5982SARS\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5bfc\u81f4\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u9884\u81ea\u8eab\u9632\u4efb\u4f55\u672a\u6765\u5371\u673a\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u611f\u5230\u81ea\u6ee1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u5bf9\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e25\u91cd\u5371\u673a\u2014\u2014\u2014\u6c14\u5019\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u4e5f\u611f\u5230\u81ea\u6ee1\u3002\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u2014\u2014\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7a81\u7136\u548c\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\uff0c\u800c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u538b\u529b\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u5206\u6790\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5e94\u529b\u662f\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u5730\u6b63\u5e38\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ea\u662f\u7f13\u6162\u9000\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e0\u6cd5\u6062\u590d\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5d29\u6e83\u5f97\u53ef\u80fd\u975e\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u57fa\u4e8e\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u589e\u5f3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5438\u6536\u3001\u6062\u590d\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u5404\u79cd\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u5305\u62ec\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e2a\u4eba\u3001\u793e\u533a\u548c\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u5e94\u5bf9\u9006\u5883\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4ee5\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u9002\u5e94\uff0c\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u4e2d\u65ad\/\u5e72\u6270\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u5206\u6790\u9886\u57df\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u53ef\u7528\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u4e2d\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u505a\u597d\u5e94\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7834\u574f\u7684\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u5e76\u5e2e\u52a9\u907f\u514d\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u4e0e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u653f\u5e9c\u76ee\u524d\u53ef\u7528\u7684\u3001\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u51fa\u8fc7\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u5de5\u5177\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u52aa\u529b\u5b9e\u73b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u97e7\u6027\u5c06\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7e41\u8363\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u7075\u654f\u548c\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020a\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u6ce8\u91cd\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u548c\u6218\u7565\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u51cf\u8f7b\u672a\u6765\u5371\u673a\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5145\u5206\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u51c6\u5907\u548c\u5f3a\u5316\u5168\u7403\u548c\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u4eba\u9020\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4f46\u4ee5\u7cfb\u7edf\u6062\u590d\u4e3a\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u7684\u3001\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u89c4\u907f\u635f\u5931\u540e\u5bfb\u6c42\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65b9\u65b9\u9762\u9762\uff0c\u5176\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u6210\u672c\u6548\u5e94\u8981\u9ad8\u5f88\u591a\u30022020 \u5e74\u7684 Covid-19 \u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6027\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5d29\u6e83\u53ef\u80fd\u968f\u65f6\u7531\u5404\u79cd\u50ac\u5316\u5242\u5f15\u8d77\uff0c\u5e76\u4ea7\u751f\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4e14\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ee5\u97e7\u6027\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u50cf 2008 \u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u90a3\u6837\u7f13\u6162\u7684\u5168\u7403\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u5e2e\u52a9\u7ef4\u6301\u751a\u81f3\u63d0\u9ad8\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u96be\u4ee5\uff08\u5982\u679c\u5e76\u975e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8bdd\uff09\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u76f8\u534f\u8c03\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e5f\u5fc5\u987b\u6539\u53d8\u3002<\/strong>\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u80fd\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u63a8\u65ad\u6216\u5bf9\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u5206\u6790\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u5fc5\u987b\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u6574\u5408\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u5f02\u8d28\u6027<\/span>\uff08Hynes et al. 2020b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8868\u5f81\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u5e76\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u53ca\u5176\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u6574\u5408\u6765\u81ea\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u7684\u73b0\u6709\u5efa\u6a21\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5c06\u73af\u5883\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u6a21\u578b\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u6269\u5c55\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u5e76\u5141\u8bb8\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5e72\u9884\u4e2d\u8bc4\u4f30\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8d85\u8d8a\u73b0\u6709\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u96c6\u6210\u53ef\u80fd\u6d89\u53ca\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u5e94\u7528\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9690\u6027\u6c61\u67d3\u7684\u6838\u7b97\u3001\u5177\u6709\u7b56\u7565\u4ea4\u4e92\u7684\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u4eff\u771f\u3001\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6d88\u8d39\u504f\u597d\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u9009\u62e9\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5904\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6839\u672c\u6027\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e94\u5bf9\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u662f\u5c06\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u673a\u6784\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u4e14\u7ecf\u5e38\u76f8\u4e92\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u3001\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u3002\u53e0\u52a0\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u7684\u662f\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u660e\u786e\u7684\u94fe\u6761\u6216\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u4e0e\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u97e7\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5a01\u80c1\u65e0\u6cd5\u5145\u5206\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u610f\u5473\u7740\u91cd\u65b0\u8003\u8651\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f18\u5148\u4e8b\u9879\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4f18\u5316\u548c\u6548\u7387\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u5de5\u7a0b\u79d1\u5b66\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u8bd5\u56fe\u4f18\u5316\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7834\u574f\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u6ce8\uff1a\u672c\u6587\u6536\u5f55\u4e8eSpringer\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300aCovid-19\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u97e7\u6027\u300b\u7279\u520a<\/span> <\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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Linkov I, Carluccio S, Pritchard O, N\u00ed Bhreasail \u00c1, Galaitsi S, Sarkis J, Keisler JM (2020) The case for value chain resilience. Manage Res Rev 43(12).  https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1108\/MRR-08-2019-0353<\/span><\/section>\n
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Linkov I, Trump BD, Golan M, Keisler JM (2021) Enhancing resilience in post-COVID societies: by design or by intervention? Environ Sci Technol Article ASAP. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1021\/acs.est.1c00444<\/span><\/section>\n
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Marchese K, Paramasivan S, Held M (2012) Bouncing back: supply chain risk management lessons from post-tsunami Japan. Industry Week, 1\u20133. https:\/\/www.industryweek.com\/theeconomy\/article\/21949237\/bouncing-back-supply-chainrisk-management-lessons-from-posttsunami-japan<\/span><\/section>\n
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OECD\/FAO (2019) Background notes on sustainable, productive and resilient agro-food systems: value chains, human capital, and the 2030 Agenda. OECD Publishing, Paris. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1787\/dca82200-en<\/span><\/section>\n
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Ramos G, Hynes W, M\u00fcller J-M, Lees M (2019) Systemic thinking for policy making\u2014the potential of systems analysis for addressing global policy challenges in the 21st Centuary. OECD Conference Centre. https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/naec\/averting-systemic-collapse\/SG-NAEC(2019)4_IIASA-OECD_Systems_Thinking_Report.pdf<\/span><\/section>\n
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Rohr JR, Barrett CB, Civitello DJ, Craft ME, Delius B, DeLeo GA, \u2026 , Remais JV (2019) Emerging human infectious diseases and the links to global food production. Nat Sustain 2(6):445\u2013456.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41893-019-0293-3<\/span><\/section>\n
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Trichet J-C (2010) Reflections on the nature of monetary policy non-standard measures and finance theory. Speech by President of the ECB, Opening address at the ECB Central Banking Conference Frankfurt. https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/key\/date\/2010\/html\/sp101118.en.html. Accessed 2 Step 2020<\/span><\/section>\n
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Trump BD, Florin M, Linkov I (2018) IRGC resource guide on resilience, vol 2. Lausanne (Switzerland): International Risk Governance Center (IRGC)<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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