{"id":37614,"date":"2022-10-01T21:41:50","date_gmt":"2022-10-01T13:41:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=37614"},"modified":"2022-10-01T21:41:50","modified_gmt":"2022-10-01T13:41:50","slug":"%e4%bb%8e%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e9%80%82%e5%ba%94%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e8%a7%86%e8%a7%92%ef%bc%8c%e6%80%bb%e7%bb%93%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%8c%96%e6%97%b6%e4%bb%a3%e7%9a%84%e6%96%87%e6%98%8e%e5%b4%a9%e6%ba%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=37614","title":{"rendered":"\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u5168\u7403\u5316\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u6587\u660e\u5d29\u6e83\u6210\u56e0"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n

\u5bfc\u8bed<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n

\u6280\u672f\u65e5\u76ca\u5148\u8fdb\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\u5168\u7403\u5316\u6587\u660e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6784\u5efa\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5176\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u673a\u5236\u5374\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u3002\u4e4d\u4e00\u770b\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u5904\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5316\u65f6\u4ee3\u4e0e\u53e4\u4ee3\u6587\u660e\u4e4b\u95f4\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6587\u660e\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4ee5\u6765\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u8bf8\u5982\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u3001\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u3001\u4f20\u67d3\u3001\u7ea7\u8054\u3001\u540c\u6b65\u6545\u969c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u5468\u671f\u7b49\u673a\u5236\u662f\u90fd\u662f\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5171\u540c\u70b9\uff0c\u4ece\u4e2d\u68c0\u67e5\u5404\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u4e3b\u5f20\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7279\u5f81\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u5386\u53f2\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5171\u540c\u673a\u5236\u5c06\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u9610\u660e\u548c\u63ed\u793a\u5386\u53f2\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5e0c\u671b\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u6587\u660e\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u8ba9\u73b0\u4ee3\u5236\u5ea6\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e0e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5931\u8d25\u6559\u8bad\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c1\u89e3\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5177\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n


<\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bba\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5316\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u8106\u5f31\u6027<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

Miguel Centeno, Peter Callahan, Paul Larcey & Thayer Patterson<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5218\u5fd7\u822a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5218\u57f9\u6e90<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u5ba1\u6821<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9093\u4e00\u96ea<\/span> <\/span>| <\/strong><\/span>\u7f16\u8f91<\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n

\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

Globalization as Adaptive Complexity: Learning from Failure<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
https:\/\/link.springer.com\/chapter\/10.1007\/978-3-030-94137-6_6<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\u76ee\u5f55<\/strong><\/section>\n
\n
1. \u4ecb\u7ecd<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
2. \u56de\u987e\u5386\u53f2<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
3. \u5b9a\u4e49\u5d29\u6e83<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
4. \u786e\u5b9a\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u539f\u56e0<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
5. \u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u673a\u5236<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
6. \u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

1. \u4ecb\u7ecd<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e7d\u7075\u56f0\u6270\u7740\u5168\u7403\u5316\u548c\u73b0\u4ee3\u751f\u6d3b\uff1a\u6587\u660e\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u53cd\u4e4c\u6258\u90a6\u5c0f\u8bf4\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u672b\u65e5\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u6545\u4e8b\u4ece\u672a\u5982\u6b64\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\uff0c\u89c2\u4f17\u7eb7\u7eb7\u6d8c\u5411\u5927\u9884\u7b97\u707e\u96be\u7535\u5f71<\/span>\uff08Roberts 2020\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5b58\u5728\u7126\u8651\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u611f\u89c9\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8f68\u8ff9\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684<\/span>\uff08Ord 2020\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u8fdb\u6b65\u6700\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6211\u4eec\u96c6\u4f53\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u7e41\u8363\u3002911\u4e8b\u4ef6\u30012008 \u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4ee5\u53ca\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5168\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u65e5\u76ca\u5168\u7403\u5316\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e86\u89e3\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u4ee3\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8c03\u67e5\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u5931\u8d25\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u68c0\u67e5\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u83b7\u5f97\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5386\u53f2\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/strong>\u67d0\u79cd\u76ee\u7684\u8bba\u7684\u80dc\u5229\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u80dc\u5229\u8005\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u4e66\u5199\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u800c\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u7684\u504f\u89c1\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4ecd\u7136\u5c79\u7acb\u4e0d\u5012\u7684\u6587\u660e\u4e0a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u4ece\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u6587\u660e\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u6765\u5c1d\u8bd5\u626d\u8f6c\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63a5\u89e6\u5230\u8fc7\u53bb\u6ce8\u5b9a\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u6240\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u2014\u2014\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u8d70\u5411\u6bc1\u706d\u7684\u8f68\u8ff9\u6709\u81ea\u77e5\u4e4b\u660e\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u5bfc\u81f4\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bfb\u627e\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u63d0\u4f9b\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u6210\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u8b66\u793a\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u672c\u6587\u9996\u5148\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u201c\u50b2\u6162\u201d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u9898\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5316\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u603b\u7ed3\u3002\u63a5\u7740\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5d29\u6e83\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8f6c\u5411\u5176\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5012\u6570\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8282\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u51cf\u8f7b\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u73b0\u5728\u548c\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\u654c\u4eba\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u3002<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u654c\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u201d\uff08Kelly 1971\uff09<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7eb5\u89c2\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u50b2\u6162\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u795e\u8bdd\u3001\u6587\u5b66\u548c\u5b97\u6559\u7684\u8b66\u793a\u4e3b\u9898\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e60\u60ef\u4e8e\u5c06\u4e00\u4e9b\u6210\u529f\u89c6\u4e3a\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u548c\u672a\u6765\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\uff0c\u5e76\u7ecf\u5e38\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6210\u529f\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u89c6\u4e3a\u7edd\u5bf9\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u597d\u6bd4\u6c99\u6ee9\u4e0a\u7684\u5927\u53a6\u3002\u8fea\u62dc\u7684\u54c8\u5229\u6cd5\u5854\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5f53\u4ee3\u5df4\u522b\u5854<\/span>\uff08\u5723\u7ecf\u4e2d\u7684\u901a\u5929\u5854\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7269\uff0c\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5efa\u9020\u4e0e\u81ea\u7136\u73af\u5883\u5982\u6b64\u4e0d\u534f\u8c03\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u5e76\u88ab\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u57ce\u90a6\u5305\u56f4\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u50b2\u6162\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u5df2\u7ecf\u638c\u63a7\u4e86\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u660e\u5929\u4f1a\u50cf\u4eca\u5929\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u521b\u9020\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5374\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5efa\u7acb\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u548c\u97e7\u6027\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u5e78\u5b58\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u9700\u8981<\/span>\uff08Pastor-Satorras et al. 2015; Taleb 2007\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5178\u578b\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u4e5f\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u7279\u5f81<\/span>\uff08Brauer 2018\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5168\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5141\u8bb8\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u91d1\u94b1\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u548c\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u6d41\u52a8\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\u7d27\u5bc6\u8026\u5408\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u96c6\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u975e\u5e38\u597d\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u73af\u5883\u5371\u5bb3\u7684\u8bdd\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u81ea 1960 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u9884\u671f\u5bff\u547d\u589e\u52a0\u4e86 20 \u591a\u5e74<\/span>\uff08Roser et al. 2013\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u4eba\u7c7b\u9884\u671f\u5bff\u547d\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f<\/span>\uff08Schwab 2019 \u5e74\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u80fd\u751f\u4ea7\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u98df\u7269\uff0c\u5e76\u4eab\u53d7\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u6280\u672f\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u5b89\u4e1c\u5c3c\u7edf\u6cbb\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u7f57\u9a6c\u4eba\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u73af\u987e\u56db\u5468\uff0c\u60ca\u53f9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u521b\u9020\u7684\u4e1c\u897f<\/span>\uff08Birley 2000\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fdb\u6b65\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u521b\u9020\u6280\u672f\u5148\u8fdb\u3001\u590d\u6742\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u4ee5\u53ca\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6784\u5efa\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u7535\u4fe1\u3001\u8fd0\u8f93\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u519c\u4e1a\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u7b49\u7f51\u7edc\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u548c\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08Manheim 2020; Oughton et al. 2018\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f51\u7edc\u89c6\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08complex adaptive systems\uff0cCAS\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ec4\u4ef6\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u65e0\u6cd5\u7528\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u4e0e\u7ef4\u62a4\u590d\u6742\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f88\u96be\u9884\u6d4b<\/span>\uff08Helbing 2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e2a\u7ec4\u4ef6\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u5c31\u590d\u6742\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdc\u8fdc\u5927\u4e8e\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u5c06\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c6\u4e3a\u5176\u5404\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u603b\u548c\u65f6\u7684\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08Crucitti et al. 2004\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5404\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u534f\u8c03\u7684\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u201d\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f9d\u9760\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u8d38\u6613\u3001\u6c34\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u7535\u529b\u3001\u8fd0\u8f93\u4ee5\u53ca\u901a\u4fe1\u7b49\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5316\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u6709\u6548\u5730\u79cd\u690d\u3001\u751f\u957f\u3001\u6536\u83b7\u3001\u8fd0\u8f93\u548c\u9500\u552e\u98df\u54c1<\/span>\uff08Centeno et al. 2015a\uff0cb\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e0d\u534f\u8c03\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5168\u7403\u5316\u9700\u8981\u4eba\u5458\u3001\u91d1\u94b1\u3001\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u3001\u8d27\u7269\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u6d41\u52a8\u4ee5\u53ca\u5927\u91cf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u5408\u4f5c<\/span>\uff08Danku et al. 2019; Foreman-Peck 2007\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5411\u6211\u4eec\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u9694\u7edd\u3002\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u578b\u75c5\u6bd2\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fc5\u901f\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u62d6\u57ae\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u524a\u5f31\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u9884\u5148\u7684\u8b66\u544a\u548c\u5efa\u8bae\u7684\u7f13\u89e3\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u548c\u60f3\u8c61\u529b\u7684\u7f3a\u5931\u6700\u7ec8\u8fd8\u662f\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u5c40\u9762<\/span>\uff08Cambridge Global Risk Index 2019: Executive Summary 2018; Epstein 2009; Nuzzo et al. 2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u6027\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6574\u4e2a\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u707e\u96be\u3002\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u5e7f\u5ea6\u8981\u6c42\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8fdb\u884c\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5bf9\u4f18\u5316\u548c\u6548\u7387\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u77ed\u671f\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u4e3a\u957f\u671f\u707e\u96be\u57cb\u4e0b\u4e86\u9690\u60a3<\/span>\uff08Centeno et al. 2015a, b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5168\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u8fea\u62dc\u7684\u54c8\u5229\u6cd5\u5854\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u770b\u7684\u5947\u8ff9\uff0c\u4f46\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u7d27\u5bc6\u8026\u5408\u4f7f\u5f97\u201c\u6b63\u5e38\u4e8b\u6545\u201d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u4e5f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5371\u9669<\/span>\uff08Perrow 1984; Ledwoch et al. 2018\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u98ce\u9669\u72b6\u51b5<\/span>\uff08Wildavsky and Dake 1990\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u5bf9\u6b64\u8d1f\u8d23\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c06\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u5e0c\u671b\u62bc\u5728\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u50b2\u6162\u4e0e\u72c2\u5984\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u65e5\u76ca\u53d8\u5f97\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u8fd8\u5728\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u768421\u4e16\u7eaa\u6587\u660e\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5815\u843d\u793e\u4f1a\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u60b2\u60e8\u547d\u8fd0\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u53ca\u5176\u6240\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u8303\u56f4\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8fdc\u8fdc\u5927\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5931\u8d25\u548c\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u673a\u5236\u4ecd\u7136\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e0e\u57fa\u672c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7279\u5f81\u6709\u5173\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6559\u8bad\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u4ecd\u7136\u5177\u6709\u73b0\u5b9e\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5f53\u4ee3\u6f5c\u5728\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u96be\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\uff0c\u6d1e\u5bdf\u8fc7\u53bb\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u66f4\u52a0\u7d27\u8feb\u548c\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

2. \u56de\u987e\u5386\u53f2<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6709\u8bb0\u8f7d\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53d8\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u6700\u660e\u663e\u5f3a\u5927\u548c\u6700\u6210\u529f\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e00\u904d\u53c8\u4e00\u904d\u5730\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b9a\u5f8b\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u521b\u9020\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u9003\u8131\u71b5\u589e<\/span>\uff08\u81ea\u53d1\u7684\u7531\u6709\u5e8f\u5411\u65e0\u5e8f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff09\uff08Meyer and Ponthiere 2020\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u79e9\u5e8f\u662f\u6c38\u6052\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u51e0\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08risk.princeton.edu\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span>\uff08Holovatch et al. 2017\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u7f51\u7edc\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Barabasi and Frangos 2002\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u6c72\u53d6\u89c1\u89e3\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff0c\uff082\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u79cd\u5168\u7403\u590d\u6742\u6027\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u5f88\u5feb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5206\u6790\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u8bc6\u522b\u5173\u952e\u5411\u91cf\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u60f3\u8c61\u5b83\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5206\u89e3\u7684<\/span>\uff08Vespignani 2010\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e5\u76ca\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u6ce8\u5b9a\u8d70\u5411\u706d\u4ea1\u7684\u6587\u660e\u7684\u5171\u540c\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u63d0\u4f9b\u9884\u8b66\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u4e0e\u5b66\u8005\u4e3e\u884c\u4e86\u4e24\u6b21\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u89c2\u70b9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u5d29\u6e83<\/span>\uff08risk.princeton.edu\/collapse\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5305\u62ec\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u5efa\u6a21\u5e08\u3001\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u53cd\u4e4c\u6258\u90a6\u6563\u6587\u548c\u5c0f\u8bf4\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u7ec4\u5efa\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bfb\u6c42\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u73b0\u4ee3\u4e16\u754c\u53ca\u5176\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u5386\u53f2\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/span>\uff08seshatdatabank.info\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u533a\u5206\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5916\u751f\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u5185\u751f\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u201c\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u8870\u843d\u201d\u6559\u4f1a\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u6700\u597d\u5730\u4e3a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5371\u9669\u672a\u6765\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907<\/span>\uff08Taleb 2012\uff09<\/span>\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u5168\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6c72\u53d6\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u5386\u53f2\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\u548c\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5728\u672c\u7ae0\u4e2d\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u9610\u660e\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\u673a\u5236\u6df1\u53d7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

3. \u5b9a\u4e49\u5d29\u6e83<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u5b9a\u4e49\u5f00\u59cb\uff1a\u201c\u4e00\u7ec4\u6709\u89c4\u5f8b\u5730\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u6216\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u5355\u5143\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u201d<\/span>\uff08Merriam-Webster\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5982\u4f55\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\u8870\u843d\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u201d\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6216\u89c4\u6a21\u4e0a\u7f29\u5c0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8f74\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u672c\u8eab\u79fb\u52a8\u5230\u5176\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5982\u679c\u5d29\u6e83\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u9898\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u201c\u5d29\u6e83\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5206\u6b67<\/span>\uff08Middleton 2013; Yoffee 2005; Yoffee and Cowgill 1988\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u9886\u57df\u662f\uff0c\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u4e00\u79cd\u6279\u8bc4\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u70b9\u5f80\u5f80\u6709\u591a\u91cd\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u89c1\u2014\u2014\u6587\u5316\u504f\u89c1\u3001\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u504f\u89c1\u4ee5\u53ca\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u89c1\u7b49\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u6279\u8bc4\u662f\uff0c\u4ec5\u8c08\u8bba\u5d29\u6e83\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u6587\u660e\u5728\u8270\u96be\u56f0\u82e6\u548c\u51b2\u51fb\u4e2d\u5e78\u5b58\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u7c7b\u4f3c\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63a9\u76d6\u6216\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u786e\u5b9a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u548c\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5143\u7d20<\/span>\uff08Nicoll and Zerboni 2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5fc5\u987b\u89e3\u51b3\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5d29\u6e83\u4e86\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6587\u660e\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u3001\u63a7\u5236\u3001\u534f\u8c03\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08Renfrew 1973; Tainter 1988\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u63a7\u5236\u6c34\u5e73\u6216\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7ee9\u6548\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5982\u8425\u517b\u6216\u9884\u671f\u5bff\u547d<\/span>\uff08van Zanden et al. 2014\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u201c\u5d29\u6e83\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u6709\u4e9b\u542b\u7cca\u4e0d\u6e05\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u5b66\u79d1\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u9879\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5efa<\/span>\u8bae\u501f\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u5d29\u6e83\u201d\u672f\u8bed\u7684\u7528\u6cd5\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\uff0c\u5d29\u6e83\u6307\u7684\u662f\u8fde\u63a5\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5206\u89e3\u548c\u5206\u88c2\u3002\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5206\u89e3\u6216\u5206\u88c2\u6210\u66f4\u5c0f\u7684\u5355\u5143\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u987a\u5e8f\u3001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3001\u534f\u8c03\u548c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6765\u8fd0\u884c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u3002<\/span>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\uff1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u5426\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u5176\u805a\u5408\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u90e8\u5206<\/strong>\uff08Hern\u00e1ndez-Lemus and Siqueiros-Garc\u00eda 2013\uff09<\/span>\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u6216\u6587\u660e\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6846\u67b6<\/span>\uff08Yoffee 2005; Kauffman 1993\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u739b\u96c5\u665a\u671f\u57ce\u90a6\u5206\u6563\u5e76\u6210\u4e3a\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u519c\u6c11\u805a\u96c6\u5730\uff0c\u4f46\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u739b\u96c5\u201c\u6587\u660e\u201d\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u534a\u5f84\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6574\u4e2a\u73b0\u72b6\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u897f\u7f57\u9a6c\u5e1d\u56fd\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u5f97\u591a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u8981\u5c11\u5f97\u591a\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u4e1c\u7f57\u9a6c\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u8eab\u4efd\u5728\u4e00\u5343\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\u4fdd\u6301\u7740\u539f\u6765\u7684\u6837\u5b50<\/span>\uff08Mango 2002\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u77ed\u671f\u5230\u957f\u671f\u7684\u805a\u96c6\u548c\u5206\u88c2\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f7f\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u88c2\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5b83\u5fc5\u987b\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u957f\u671f\u540e\u679c\u6216\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u5fc5\u987b\u6d89\u53ca\u57fa\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u6216\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u4e27\u5931\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u8425\u517b\u3001\u9884\u671f\u5bff\u547d\u6216\u5e73\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u3002 Ibn Khald\u00fbn \u7684\u672f\u8bed asabiyyah\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u201c\u7fa4\u4f53\u611f\u89c9\u201d\u6216\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u201d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u5bf9\u7acb\u9762\u3002<\/strong>\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c1377 \u5e74\uff0cIbn Khald\u00fbn \u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u300a\u7a46\u5361\u8fea\u739b\u300b<\/span>\uff08Muqaddimah<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u8870\u843d\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684<\/span>\uff08Khald\u00fbn 2015\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u533a\u5206\u5174\u8870\u7684\u6e10\u8fdb\u5faa\u73af\u548c\u8fc5\u901f\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5173\u4e8e\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u620f\u5267\u6027\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6216\u5173\u952e\u7684\u6307\u6807\u89e6\u53d1\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u51fa\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5d29\u6e83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u7684\u62d0\u70b9\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6761\u4ef6\u660e\u663e\u4e0b\u964d<\/span>\uff08Haldon et al. 2020 pp. 3\u20137\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u533a\u5206\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5371\u673a\u548c\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1 2008 \u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5f15\u53d1\u6574\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u5d29\u6e83<\/span>\uff08Coggan 2020,338-47\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u201c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b2130\u5e74\u6218\u4e89\u201d<\/span>\uff081914-1945\uff09<\/span>\u786e\u5b9e\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u5d29\u6e83<\/span>\uff08Ferguson 2006\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c19 \u4e16\u7eaa\u6b96\u6c11\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u54c0\u60bc\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u5374\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u5e86\u795d\u30026500 \u4e07\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u4e00\u9897\u5c0f\u884c\u661f\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u6700\u4e3a\u620f\u5267\u6027\u7684\u5d29\u584c\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u6050\u9f99\u6765\u8bf4\u65e0\u7591\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4e3a\u54fa\u4e73\u52a8\u7269\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u751f\u6001\u5f00\u7aef\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u4e3a\u8870\u843d\u548c\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u751f\u6001\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u5d29\u6e83\u201d\u6216\u201c\u91ca\u653e\u201d\u662f\u5468\u671f\u6027\u518d\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5b83\u5141\u8bb8\u65b0\u7684\u91cd\u7ec4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u548c\u7ade\u4e89\u5141\u8bb8\u65b0\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u7279\u5f81\u968f\u7740\u518d\u751f\u800c\u51fa\u73b0<\/span>\uff08Gunderson and Holling 2002\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

4. \u786e\u5b9a\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u539f\u56e0<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u9274\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u5386\u53f2\u6587\u660e\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u96be\u4ee5\u5c31\u5404\u79cd\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u8fbe\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e9a\u5386\u5c71\u5927\u00b7\u5fb7\u68ee\u7279<\/span>\uff08Alexander Demandt\uff0c1984\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u7f57\u9a6c\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86210\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89e3\u91ca<\/span>\uff08Demandt 1984\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f57\u9a6c\u5e1d\u56fd\u4ece\u672a\u771f\u6b63\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5206\u88c2\u5e76\u6162\u6162\u6d88\u5931<\/span>\uff08Brown 1976\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u6216\u5931\u8d25\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u67d0\u4e9b\u590d\u6742\u793e\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u5e38\u89c1\u89e3\u91ca<\/span>\uff08Middleton 2017\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e0e\u4efb\u4f55\u60b2\u60e8\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5931\u53bb\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u201d\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u9519\u8bef\u548c\u6311\u6218\u4e32\u8054\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u65f6\u523b\u6216\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u533a\u5206\u4e24\u5927\u7c7b\u5bf9\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff1a\u5916\u751f\u6027\u548c\u5185\u751f\u6027\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u5916\u751f\u6027\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0<\/span>\uff08\u6765\u81ea\u7cfb\u7edf\u5916\u90e8\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u662f\u9020\u6210\u7cfb\u7edf\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u3002\u706b\u5c71\u7206\u53d1\u3001\u5730\u9707\u548c\u7a81\u7136\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u901a\u5e38\u4e0e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\u6709\u5173<\/span>\uff08Bostrom and Circovic 2008; Ord 2020\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5185\u5bb9\u90fd\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u5165\u4fb5\u3001\u5f81\u670d\u548c\u6b8b\u66b4\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u88ab\u5f81\u670d\u7684\u6587\u660e\u90fd\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6545\u4e8b\u89c6\u4e3a\u5916\u751f\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4ece15\u4e16\u7eaa\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u201c\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u201d<\/span>\uff08Hoffman 2015\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u4e16\u754c\u90fd\u610f\u5473\u7740\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5bfc\u81f4\u970d\u91d1\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4ed6\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u201c\u5982\u6b64\u7684\u5916\u661f\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u5f81\u670d\u548c\u6b96\u6c11\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5230\u8fbe\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u884c\u661f\u201d<\/span>\uff08Stephen Hawking\u2019s Universe 2010\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5916\u751f\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u867d\u7136\u7a81\u51fa\u4e14\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u8bef\u5bfc\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u5ffd\u89c6\u5185\u90e8\u7cfb\u7edf\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5386\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5916\u751f\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c48\u670d\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5e78\u5b58\u5e76\u7e41\u8363\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6bd4\u5916\u751f\u51b2\u51fb\u672c\u8eab\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e0d\u540c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u95f4\u8d28\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u6765\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c06\u5d29\u6e83\u4ec5\u4ec5\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u5916\u751f\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u540e\u679c\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u6ee1\u610f\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5<\/span>\uff08Bailey 2011\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5185\u751f\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\uff08\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u9020\u6210\u7cfb\u7edf\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b<\/strong>\u3002\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u6700\u76f8\u5173\u539f\u56e0\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u542f\u52a8\u8be5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5141\u8bb8\u6270\u52a8\u548c\u4f20\u67d3\u901a\u8fc7\u7cfb\u7edf\u653e\u5927\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u5316\u5b66\u53cd\u5e94\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5d29\u6e83\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u7531\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e2a\u7ec4\u4ef6\u7684\u6545\u969c\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u610f\u5916\u6270\u52a8\u4ea4\u4e92\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u3002\u4e0e\u5176\u5173\u6ce8\u4e2a\u522b\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u597d\u628a\u91cd\u70b9\u653e\u5728\u5173\u6ce8\u5c06\u5c40\u90e8\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0a\u5347\u4e3a\u751f\u5b58\u5371\u673a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e0e\u8bb8\u591a\u5916\u751f\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u548c\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5185\u751f\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\uff1a\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5931\u8d25\u5305\u62ec\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u4e27\u5931\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u3001\u5938\u5f20\u7684\u8d34\u73b0\u3001\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f7f\u7528\u8d44\u6e90\u3001\u5bf9\u5148\u8fdb\u6280\u672f\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u6548\u7387\u7684\u8fc7\u5206\u5f3a\u8c03\u3002<\/strong>\u4eba\u7c7b\u80fd\u52a8\u6027\u548c\u53d7\u6258\u9886\u5bfc\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u90e8\u62b5\u5fa1\u51b2\u51fb<\/span>\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5916\u751f\u548c\u5185\u751f\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4e0b\u9762\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

5. \u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6240\u6709\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u4eba\u9020\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u6709\u5171\u540c\u7684\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206<\/span>\uff08Siskin 2016\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5141\u8bb8\u751f\u957f\u6216\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u884c\u4e3a<\/span>\uff08Kauffman 2013\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u53d8\u6210\u764c\u7ec6\u80de\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u7ec6\u80de\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u66fe\u7ecf\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6f14\u53d8\u6210\u6700\u7ec8\u7834\u574f\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba8\u8bba\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e34\u754c\u70b9<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6bcf\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u793e\u4f1a\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u7684\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5f53\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u65f6\uff0c\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u5feb\u901f\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u65b0\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u6216\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u6216\u793e\u4f1a\u4ece\u4e8b\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u7a81\u7136\u4ea7\u751f\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u540e\u679c\u7684\u65f6\u523b\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u60ef\u6027\u3001\u529b\u3001\u5e94\u529b\u6216\u52a8\u91cf\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u76f8\u53d8\uff0c\u4f7f\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u7ed3\u6784\u6216\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5e73\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u95e8\u6237\u6216\u901a\u5f80\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u8def\u5f84<\/span>\uff08Milkoreit et al. 2018\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5177\u6709\u8d1f\u9762\u540e\u679c\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5305\u62ec\u538b\u65ad\u9a86\u9a7c\u80cc\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6839\u7a3b\u8349\u6216\u8005\u62c9\u4f38\u5230\u65ad\u70b9\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u6a61\u76ae\u7b4b\uff1a\u5728\u8f7b\u5fae\u7684\u989d\u5916\u538b\u529b\u540e\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u5931\u53bb\u5176\u529f\u80fd\u3002\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u7fa4\u4f53\u514d\u75ab\u529b\u2014\u2014\u5728\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u63a5\u79cd\u6c34\u5e73\u540e\uff0c\u7fa4\u4f53\u514d\u53d7\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u5728\u6240\u6709\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e34\u754c\u662f\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u6027\u6216\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u6027<\/span>\uff08Dakos et al. 2019; Bentley et al. 2014\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u6216\u7fa4\u4f53\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4f1a\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6001\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08Bossomaier et al. 2013\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u989d\u5916\u538b\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u540e\u679c\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u5b8c\u5168\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5411\u65b0\u72b6\u6001\u8fc7\u6e21\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u6216\u793e\u4f1a\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u76d1\u63a7\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u91c7\u53d6\u4ec0\u4e48\u63aa\u65bd\u6765\u907f\u514d\u5b83\u2014\u2014\u5168\u7403\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5c31\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u4e8b\u540e\u786e\u5b9a\u5b83\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u5730\u5236\u5b9c\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u624d\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4f8b\u5b50\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u627e\u5230\uff0c\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u6297\u3001\u6050\u60e7\u548c\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u4e0d\u516c\u6b63\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5728\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u5bf9\u65af\u5df4\u8fbe\u548c\u96c5\u5178\u4e4b\u95f4\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e2d\uff0c\u79d1\u6797\u65af\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9<\/span>\uff08Robinson 2017\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6216\u8005\u8003\u8651\u50cf\u300a\u5947\u7231\u535a\u58eb\u300b<\/span>\uff08Dr. Strangelove<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\u90a3\u6837\u7684\u672b\u65e5\u6b66\u5668\u5b83\u6070\u6070\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u516c\u5171\u201c\u7ea2\u7ebf\u201d\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u8d8a\u8fc7\u5b83\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u65e0\u6cd5\u963b\u6b62\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u51ef\u6492\u6e21\u8fc7\u5362\u6bd4\u5b54\u6cb3\u53ef\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6559\u8bad\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u5f88\u5c0f\u7684\u6270\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f15\u53d1\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5728\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u5408\u4f5c\u548c\u4e92\u60e0\u7684\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u529b\u901a\u8fc7\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u52a0\u5f3a<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u7834\u574f\uff09<\/span>\u8fd9\u79cd\u793e\u4f1a\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u6784\u662f\u5229\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u8f93\u51fa\u91cf\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u968f\u540e\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u91cf\uff0c\u5e76\u56de\u5230\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u8d77\u70b9<\/span>\uff08Martin 1997\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5173\u952e\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u6216\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u7531\u5176\u5148\u524d\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c34\u9f99\u5934\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u6216\u76d1\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u6c34\u6e29\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u91cd\u65b0\u6821\u51c6\u968f\u540e\u7684\u6d41\u91cf\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u6fc0\u52b1\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u662f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\uff1a\u7531\u4e8e\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u5956\u52b1\u6216\u60e9\u7f5a\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u795e\u7ecf\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Lessard 2009\uff09<\/span>\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u75db\u82e6\u6216\u5feb\u4e50\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u6765\u9f13\u52b1\u6216\u963b\u6b62\u67d0\u4e9b\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u8303\u751a\u81f3\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u90fd\u662f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u201c\u9ed1\u5323\u5b50\u201d\u5185\u8fd0\u884c\u2014\u2014\u9690\u85cf\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8db3\u591f\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u4e0d\u662f\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9884\u5148\u7f16\u7a0b\u7684\u4e00\u7ec4\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u5e73\u8861\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4f9b\u7ed9\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u65ad\u8fed\u4ee3\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u548c\u8f93\u51fa\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u76f8\u4e92\u53cd\u9988\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fdc\u79bb\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u800c\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u53ef\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u6270\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f7f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6062\u590d\u5230\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u52a0\u5f3a\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u7a33\u6001\u6765\u4fc3\u8fdb\u884c\u4e3a\u6216\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6539\u8fdb\u3002\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5956\u52b1\u4e00\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u76f4\u5230\u8be5\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0d\u518d\u5408\u9002\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af<\/span>\uff08Kolmes 2008\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5f53\u67d0\u4e9b\u4eba\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u4e0e\u96c6\u4f53\u5229\u76ca\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u5386\u53f2\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u5b9e\u4f8b\u65f6\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u662f\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u5bfc\u81f4\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u9677\u5165\u6df7\u4e71\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u662f\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u4f7f\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u80fd\u591f\u5438\u6536\u5176\u4ed6\u707e\u96be\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4f20\u67d3<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
COVID-19 \u4f7f\u4f20\u67d3\u73b0\u8c61\u53d8\u5f97\u8fc7\u4e8e\u719f\u6089\uff0c\u5e76\u6d8c\u73b0\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u5316\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u963b\u6321\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08Smil 2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ece\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4f20\u67d3\u6d89\u53ca\u901a\u8fc7\u63a5\u89e6\u6216\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fde\u63a5\u5c06\u5bf9\u8c61\u3001\u6548\u679c\u6216\u7279\u5f81\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u4f20\u9012\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u54b3\u55fd\u611f\u67d3\u4e00\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u5927\u558a\u201c\u7740\u706b\u4e86\uff01\u201d\u53ef\u80fd\u89e6\u53d1\u8b66\u62a5\u6216\u6050\u614c\u7684\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7cfb\u7edf\u67d0\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6545\u969c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u751a\u81f3\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6545\u969c\u3002\u4e0e\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u548c\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f20\u67d3\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u6216\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u3002\u6280\u672f\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u53d1\u660e\u53ca\u5176\u968f\u540e\u7684\u201c\u75c5\u6bd2\u5f0f\u201d\u4f20\u64ad\u662f\u6709\u76ca\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u6216\u662f\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u9aa8\u724c\u6548\u5e94\u662f\u4f20\u67d3\u548c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u673a\u5236\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u5e38\u8c03\u8282\u7684\u6d41\u91cf\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u63a5\u53d7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u90bb\u8fd1\u8282\u70b9\u4e0d\u582a\u91cd\u8d1f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5f53\u9010\u6e10\u8513\u5ef6\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u7ec4\u4ef6\u6216\u533a\u57df\u5f15\u53d1\u6545\u969c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u50ac\u751f\u4e00\u8fde\u4e32\u7684\u6545\u969c\u2014\u2014\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6545\u969c\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8db3\u4ee5\u5f15\u53d1\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u76f8\u90bb\u6545\u969c\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u6760\u6746\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7ea7\u8054\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u6545\u969c\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u4ee3\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u6545\u969c\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8026\u5408\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u4e2d<\/span>\uff08Korkali et al. 2017\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c1914 \u5e74\u5f17\u6717\u8328\u00b7\u6590\u8fea\u5357\u9047\u523a\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u81ed\u540d\u662d\u8457\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u901a\u8fc7\u8054\u76df\u7d27\u5bc6\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u63d0\u9ad8\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7cfb\u7edf\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u4e3a\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u5931\u8d25\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u4e00\u5f20\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u9aa8\u724c\u5012\u4e0b\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u6539\u53d8\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5168\u7403\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u540c\u6b65\u6545\u969c<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u867d\u7136\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e3a\u80fd\u591f\u627f\u53d7\u5355\u4e2a\u5c40\u90e8\u6545\u969c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u5b9a\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u6b64\u7c7b\u540c\u65f6\u6545\u969c\u5f80\u5f80\u4f7f\u4efb\u4f55\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u582a\u91cd\u8d1f\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u201c\u5b8c\u7f8e\u98ce\u66b4\u201d\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u540c\u6b65\u6545\u969c\u3002\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u6216\u5730\u70b9\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd1\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6545\u969c\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u805a\u96c6\uff0c\u6216\u591a\u4e2a\u6545\u969c\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u548c\u534f\u540c\u4ea4\u4e92\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4eba\u5458\u65e0\u6cd5\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7cfb\u7edf\u6ca1\u6709\u51c6\u5907\u597d<\/span>\uff08Homer-Dixon et al. 2015\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
Charles Perrow \u7684\u201c\u6b63\u5e38\u4e8b\u6545\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u770b\u4f3c\u65e0\u5bb3\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6c47\u5408\u5982\u4f55\u5bfc\u81f4\u707e\u96be\u6027\u540e\u679c<\/span>\uff08Perrow 1984\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u7d27\u5bc6\u8026\u5408\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u7279\u522b\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u540c\u65f6\u6d89\u53ca\u5404\u79cd\u793e\u4f1a\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u67d0\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6545\u969c\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u53e6\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u51fa\u73b0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u540c\u6b65\u6545\u969c\u5c24\u5176\u5177\u6709\u5a01\u80c1\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4efb\u4f55\u4e2a\u4eba\u6216\u793e\u4f1a\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e3a\u65e0\u6570\u7684\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7ec4\u5408\u548c\u540e\u679c\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907<\/span>\uff08West 2017\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6216\u8bb8\u80fd\u591f\u521b\u5efa\u5904\u7406\u4e2a\u522b\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4f46\u9762\u5bf9\u591a\u91cd\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u8d44\u6e90\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u5f81\u7528\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u6781\u9650\u3002\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6545\u969c\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6bcf\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u6545\u969c\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6599\u5230\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002\u88ab\u65b0\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u6253\u4e24\u573a\u6218\u6597\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u3002\u867d\u7136\u611f\u67d3\u6216\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u672c\u8eab\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u4f46\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u878d\u5408\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u81f4\u547d\u4e00\u51fb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5468\u671f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6587\u660e\u6216\u751f\u7269\u5468\u671f\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u6b7b\u4ea1\u548c\u751f\u547d\u7684\u6709\u673a\u5faa\u73af\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u661f\u7403\u7684\u4e3b\u5bb0<\/span>\uff08Walker et al. 2017\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u6b7b\u4ea1\u548c\u5206\u89e3\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u751f\u7269\u751f\u547d\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u534a\u4e2a\u591a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u8c03\u8282\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u3001\u7e41\u8363\u548c\u8427\u6761\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u4e3a\u6307\u5bfc\u3002\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u8d22\u653f\u5e72\u9884\u6765\u907f\u514d\u5468\u671f\u7684\u6df1\u8c37\u3002\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ecf\u5386\u57fa\u4e8e\u6355\u98df\u8005-\u88ab\u6355\u98df\u8005\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u79cd\u7fa4\u589e\u957f\u548c\u51cf\u5c11\u7684\u632f\u8361\u5468\u671f\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u8fc7\u592a\u9633\u9ed1\u5b50\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u5929\u6587\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7ecf\u5386\u81ea\u7136\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6e29\u5ea6\u6ce2\u52a8\u548c\u5e72\u65f1\u3002\u73af\u5883\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5468\u671f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u610f\u5916\u88ab\u5265\u593a\u98df\u7269\u6216\u6c34\u7684\u6587\u660e\u6765\u8bf4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684<\/span>\uff08Parker 2013\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u8bb8\u591a\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u4eba\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u5174\u8870\u7684\u65e5\u5386\u6765\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u3002\u6587\u5316\u548c\u5b97\u6559\u5df2\u7ecf\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u8f6e\u56de\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u8fd9\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u6b7b\u4ea1\u548c\u91cd\u751f\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\u6027\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u4ef0\u3002\u81f3\u5c11\u81ea\u542f\u8499\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u793e\u4f1a\u90fd\u8bd5\u56fe\u6446\u8131\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u7ebf\u6027\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d85\u8d8a\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u6e34\u671b\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6d3b\u529b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff08Sweezy 1943\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8870\u9000\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5a01\u80c1\u6027\u7684\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/strong>\u5c31\u50cf\u96ea\u83b1\u7684\u300a\u5965\u5179\u66fc\u8fea\u4e9a\u65af\u300b<\/span>\uff08Ozymandias<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u6587\u660e\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u671f\u671b\u6c38\u8fdc\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u6587\u660e\u6700\u7ec8\u4e5f\u4f1a\u8870\u843d\u3001\u8f6c\u53d8\u6216\u5d29\u6e83<\/span>\uff08Shelley 1818\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u97e7\u6027\u548c\u7f13\u89e3\u63aa\u65bd<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4ece\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u97e7\u6027\u662f\u6307\u4efb\u4f55\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08\u4eba\u4f53\u3001\u5efa\u7b51\u7269\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u3001\u70ed\u5e26\u68ee\u6797\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u51b2\u51fb\u548c\u7834\u574f\u4e2d\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u80fd\u529b<\/span>\uff08Walker and Cooper 2011\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ece\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u548c\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u7814\u7a76\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6240\u6709\u5b66\u79d1<\/span>\uff08Evans and Reid 2013\uff1bLevin and Lubchenco 2008\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u5728\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u548c\u97e7\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u533a\u5206\uff0c\u4f46\u51fa\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672c\u6b21\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u97e7\u6027\u4e00\u8bcd\u6765\u6db5\u76d6\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\uff0c\u97e7\u6027\u662f\u4e24\u79cd\u4e00\u822c\u54c1\u8d28\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\uff1a\u6297\u51b2\u51fb\u6027\u548c\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u80fd\u529b<\/span>\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u79f0\u4e3a\u7a33\u5065\u6027\uff09<\/span>\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u3001\u53ef\u6062\u590d\u6027\u6216\u8db3\u4ee5\u5728\u4e2d\u65ad\u540e\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u80fd\u529b<\/span>\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u79f0\u4e3a\u97e7\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u62b5\u5fa1\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u5efa\u9020\u6c34\u575d\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u6d2a\u6c34\uff1b\u540e\u8005\u662f\u5728\u6d2a\u6c34\u6765\u4e34\u65f6\u63d0\u4f9b\u8239\u53ea\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5bf9\u97e7\u6027\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u533a\u522b\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u53ef\u80fd\u662f: \u4e00\u4e2a\u4f53\u7cfb\u9632\u8303\u5371\u673a\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u4ece\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u53cd\u6062\u590d\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5728\u76d1\u7ba1\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bd5\u56fe\u9632\u6b62\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7269\u7406\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6216\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u51fa\u73b0\u6545\u969c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5206\u6d41\u65b9\u6848\u3001\u5e94\u6025\u63aa\u65bd\u548c\u6062\u590d\u8ba1\u5212\u6765\u51cf\u8f7b\u635f\u5bb3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u5173\u6ce8\u9884\u9632\u548c\u7f13\u89e3\uff1f\u62b5\u6297\u529b\u548c\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u54c1\u8d28\u662f\u76f8\u8f85\u76f8\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4ee3\u8868\u7740\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u6743\u8861\uff1b\u5b83\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u53d8\u5f97\u5f3a\u5927\u548c\u7075\u6d3b\uff0c\u4f46\u63d0\u9ad8\u97e7\u6027\u9700\u8981\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u6700\u5927\u5316\u4e24\u8005\u3002\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6216\u6f14\u8fdb\u5c06\u6839\u636e\u504f\u597d\u548c\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u4e00\u4e9b\u201c\u4e2d\u5eb8\u4e4b\u9053\u201d\u6743\u8861\u3001\u5e73\u8861\u548c\u7ed3\u5408\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u54c1\u8d28\u3002\u6b63\u662f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6743\u8861\u548c\u5e73\u8861\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u6700\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u56f0\u5883\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7cfb\u7edf\u97e7\u6027\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u516c\u5171\u4ea7\u54c1\u201d\uff0c\u4f1a\u56e0\u7ba1\u7406\u5931\u8bef\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5931\u8bef\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u5185\u751f\u673a\u5236\u5bfc\u81f4\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u4e00\u79cd\u589e\u52a0\u7cfb\u7edf\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u7ba1\u7406\u5931\u8d25\u662f\u5173\u6ce8\u4e0d\u65ad\u63d0\u9ad8\u7684\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6210\u672c\u8282\u7ea6\u548c\u53ca\u65f6\u7ba1\u7406\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e86\u5197\u4f59\u3001\u677e\u5f1b\u548c\u50a8\u5907\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6548\u7387\u901a\u8fc7\u589e\u52a0\u5bf9\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u548c\u76f8\u90bb\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u4f7f\u73b0\u4ee3\u7cfb\u7edf\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u5185\u751f\u5d29\u6e83\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5a01\u80c1\u97e7\u6027\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ba1\u7406\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u7ecf\u5e38\u5173\u6ce8\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4eba\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u65e0\u6cd5\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u5185\u751f\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8fd9\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u8d1f\u5916\u90e8\u6027\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u201c\u516c\u5730\u60b2\u5267\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u81ea\u8eab\u5229\u76ca\u2014\u2014\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u534f\u8c03\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u2014\u2014\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5d29\u6e83<\/span>\uff08Hardin 1968\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5236\u5b9a\u6cbb\u7406\u7b56\u7565\u65f6\u5fc5\u987b\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5d29\u6e83\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u5236\u5a01\u80c1\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u4ee3\u7cfb\u7edf\u751f\u5b58\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4fdd\u969c\u3001\u76d1\u63a7\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u6cd5\u89c4\u548c\u6807\u51c6\u6765\u4f18\u5148\u8003\u8651\u97e7\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

6. \u7ed3\u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5168\u7403\u5316\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u50b2\u6162\u201d\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u7248\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u5176\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u673a\u5236\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u6280\u672f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5148\u8fdb\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c06\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u5bfc\u81f4\u5185\u751f\u6027\u6545\u969c\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u98ce\u9669<\/strong>\u3002\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u7814\u7a76\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5e76\u6fc0\u53d1\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u4e86\u89e3\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e4d\u4e00\u770b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u53e4\u4ee3\u6587\u660e\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u4ee3\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u4e4b\u95f4\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6587\u660e\u89c6\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f00\u59cb\u8bc6\u522b\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u3001\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u3001\u4f20\u67d3\u3001\u7ea7\u8054\u3001\u540c\u6b65\u6545\u969c\u548c\u5468\u671f\u7b49\u673a\u5236\u53ef\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u5236\u662f\u4efb\u4f55\u590d\u6742\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u7528\u7684\u5171\u540c\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u4ece\u4e2d\u68c0\u9a8c\u5404\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u5386\u53f2\u5d29\u6e83\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5171\u540c\u673a\u5236\u5c06\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u9610\u660e\u548c\u63ed\u793a\u5386\u53f2\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u6587\u660e\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u4eab\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u6559\u8bad\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c1\u89e3\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u77e5\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5f31\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5177\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n

\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n

Bailey  M (2011) Risk and natural catastrophes: the long view. In: Skinns L,  Scott M, Cox M (eds) Risk. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Barabasi  A-L, Frangos J (2002) Linked: the new science of networks science of  networks, 1st edn. Perseus Books Group, Cambridge, Mass<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Bentley  et al., 2014 Bentley RA, Maddison EJ, Ranner PH, Bissell J, Caiado CCS,  Bhatanacharoen P, Clark T et al (2014) Social tipping points and earth  systems dynamics. Front Environ Sci 2. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fenvs.2014.00035<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Birley  AR (2000) Hadrian to the Antonines. In: Bowman AK, Rathbone D, Garnsey P  (eds) The Cambridge Ancient History: Volume 11: The High Empire, AD  70\u2013192, edited by, 2nd ed, 11:132\u201394. The Cambridge Ancient History.  Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/CHOL9780521263351.004<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Bossomaier  T, Barnett L, Harr\u00e9 M (2013) Information and phase transitions in  socio-economic systems. Complex Adapt Syst Model 1. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/2194-3206-1-9<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Bostrom N, Cirkovic MM (2008) Global catastrophic risks, Illustrated. Oxford University Press, Oxford<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Brauer  D (2018) Theory and practice of historical writing in times of  globalization. In: Brauer D, Rold\u00e1n C, Rohbeck J (eds) Philosophy of  globalization, pp 397\u2013408. De Gruyter. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1515\/9783110492415-029\/html<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Brown P (1976) The making of late antiquity. 5th Printing edition. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Cambridge Global Risk Index 2019: Executive Summary (2018) University of Cambridge: Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. https:\/\/www.jbs.cam.ac.uk\/faculty-research\/centres\/risk\/publications\/managing-multi-threat\/cambridge-global-risk-index\/cambridge-global-risk-index-2019-executive-summary\/<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Centeno  MA, Nag M, Patterson TS, Shaver A, Jason Windawi A (2015a) The  emergence of global systemic risk. Ann Rev Sociol 41(1):65\u201385. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1146\/annurev-soc-073014-112317<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Centeno  M, Callahan P, Patterson T (2015b) Systemic risk in global agriculture:  conference report. PIIRS Global Systemic Risk & Agriculture and  Food Security Center, Princeton, New Jersey. https:\/\/risk.princeton.edu\/img\/Princeton-Columbia_Agriculture_Conf_Report_2014-10-24_(v2016-09-27).pdf<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Coggan P (2020) More: the 10,000-year rise of the world economy. Main edition. Economist Books<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Crucitti  P, Latora V, Marchiori M (2004) Model for cascading failures in complex  networks. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlinear Soft Matter Phys 69:045104. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1103\/PhysRevE.69.045104<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Dakos  V, Matthews B, Hendry AP, Levine J, Loeuille N, Norberg J, Nosil P,  Scheffer M,<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

De Meester L (2019) Ecosystem tipping points in an evolving  world. Nat Ecol Evolut 3(3):355\u2013362. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41559-019-0797-2<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Danku Z, Perc M, Szolnoki A (2019) Knowing the past improves cooperation in the future. Sci Rep 9(1):262. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-018-36486-xADSCASCrossRefPubMedPubMed Central<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Demandt A (1984) Der Fall Roms: Die Aufl\u00f6sung des r\u00f6mischen Reiches im Urteil der Nachwelt. Beck, M\u00fcnchen<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Epstein JM (2009) Modelling to contain pandemics. Nature 460(7256):687\u2013687. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/460687aADSCASCrossRefPubMedPubMed Central<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Evans B, Reid J (2013) Dangerously exposed: the life and death of the resilient subject. Resilience 1(2):83\u201398. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/21693293.2013.770703<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Ferguson N (2006) The war of the world: history\u2019s age of hatred. Allen Lane, London<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Foreman-Peck J (2007) European historical economics and globalisation. J Philos Econ 1(1):23\u201353<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Gunderson LH, Holling CS (2002) Panarchy: understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Island Press<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Haldon  J, Chase A, Eastwood W, Medina-Elizalde M, Izdebski A, Ludlow F,  Middleton<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

G, Mordechai L, Nesbitt J, Turner BL (2020) Demystifying  collapse: climate, environment, and social agency in pre-modern  societies. Millennium 17(November):1\u201333. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1515\/mill-2020-0002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Hardin G (1968) The tragedy of the commons. Science 162(3859):1243\u20131248. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.162.3859.1243ADSCASCrossRefPubMed<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Helbing D (2009) Managing complexity in socio-economic systems*. Europ Rev 17(2):423\u2013438. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/S1062798709000775<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Hern\u00e1ndez-Lemus  E, Siqueiros-Garc\u00eda J (2013) Information theoretical methods for  complex network structure reconstruction. Complex Adapt Syst Model  1(April):8. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/2194-3206-1-8<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Hoffman PT (2015) Why did europe conquer the world?, 1st edn. Princeton University Press, Princeton<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Holovatch Y, Kenna R, Thurner S (2017) complex systems: physics beyond physics. Eur J Phys 38(2):023002.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1361-6404\/aa5a87<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Homer-Dixon  T, Walker B, Biggs R, AS Cr\u00e9pin, Folke C, Lambin E, Peterson G et al  (2015) Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global  crisis. Ecol Soc 20(3). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5751\/ES-07681-200306<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Kauffman  S (2013) Evolution beyond Newton, Darwin, and Entailing Law: the origin  of complexity in the evolving biosphere. In: Lineweaver CH, Davies PCW,  Ruse M (eds)<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Complexity and the arrow of time. Cambridge University  Press, Cambridge. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/CBO9781139225700<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Kauffman SA (1993) The origins of order: self-organization and selection in evolution. Oxford University Press, New York<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Kelly W (1971) Pogo cartoon. Ink and blue pencil on paper<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Khald\u00fbn I (2015) The Muqaddimah. Dawood NJ (ed) Translated by Franz Rosenthal. Princeton University Press, Princeton N.J<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Kolmes SA (2008) The social feedback loop. Environ Sci Policy Sustain Dev 50(2):57\u201358. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3200\/ENVT.50.2.57-58<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Korkali  M, Veneman JG, Tivnan BF, Bagrow JP, Hines PDH (2017) Reducing  cascading failure risk by increasing infrastructure network  interdependence. Sci Rep 7(1):44499. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/srep44499ADSCASCrossRefPubMedPubMed Central<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Ledwoch  A, Brintrup A, Mehnen J, Tiwari A (2018) Systemic risk assessment in  complex supply networks. IEEE Syst J 12(2):1826\u20131837. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1109\/JSYST.2016.2596999ADS<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Lessard  C (2009) Basic feedback controls in biomedicine: synthesis lectures on  biomedical engineering, 1st edn. Morgan and Claypool Publishers, San  Rafael, Calif.<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Levin SA, Lubchenco J (2008) Resilience, robustness, and marine ecosystem-based management. Bioscience 58(1):27\u201332. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1641\/B580107<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Mango C (ed) (2002) The oxford history of byzantium. Oxford University Press, Oxford<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Manheim D (2020) The fragile world hypothesis: complexity, fragility, and systemic existential risk. Futures 122:102570.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.futures.2020.102570<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Martin LA (1997) An introduction to feedback. Massachusetts Institute of Technology<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Merriam-Webster. n.d. System. In Mirriam-Webster. https:\/\/www.merriam-webster.com\/dictionary\/system<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Meyer  P, Ponthiere G (2020) Human lifetime entropy in a historical  perspective (1750\u20132014). Cliometrica J Hist Econ Econ Hist 1:129\u2013167<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Middleton G (2013) That old devil called collapse. E-International Relations (blog). https:\/\/www.e-ir.info\/2013\/02\/06\/that-old-devil-called-collapse\/<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Middleton GD (2017) Understanding collapse: ancient history and modern myths. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Milkoreit  M, Hodbod J, Baggio J, Benessaiah K, Calder\u00f3n-Contreras R, Donges JF,<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Mathias JD, Rocha JC, Schoon M, Werners SE (2018) Defining tipping  points for social-ecological systems scholarship: an interdisciplinary  literature review. Environ Res Lett 13(3):033005.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/aaaa75<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Nicoll  K, Zerboni A (2019) Is the past key to the present? Observations of  cultural continuity and resilience reconstructed from geoarchaeological  records. Quaternary International. https:\/\/agris.fao.org\/agris-search\/search.do?recordID=US201900215845<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Nuzzo  JB, Mullen L, Snyder M, Cicero A, Inglesby TV (2019) Preparedness for a  high-impact respiratory pathogen pandemic. The Johns Hopkins Center for  Health Security. https:\/\/www.centerforhealthsecurity.org\/our-work\/publications\/preparedness-for-a-high-impact-respiratory-pathogen-pandemic<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Ord T (2020) The precipice: existential risk and the future of humanity. Hachette Books<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Oughton  EJ, Usher W, Tyler P, Hall JW (2018) Infrastructure as a complex  adaptive system. Research article. Complexity. Hindawi. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1155\/2018\/3427826<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Parker  G (2013) global crisis: war, climate change and catastrophe in the  seventeenth century. Yale University Press, New Haven. http:\/\/www.yalebooks.com\/book.asp?isbn=9780300153231<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Pastor-Satorras  R, Castellano C, Van Mieghem P, Vespignani A (2015) Epidemic<\/span><\/p>\n

processes  in complex networks. Rev Mod Phys 87(3):925\u2013979. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1103\/RevModPhys.87.925ADSMathSciNet<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Perrow C (1984) Normal accidents: living with high-risk technologies. Basic Books, New York<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Renfrew C (1973) Explanation of culture change: models in prehistory. University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Roberts A (2020) It\u2019s the end of the world: but what are we really afraid of? Elliott & Thompson<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Robinson  E (2017) Thucydides on the causes and outbreak of the peloponnesian  war. In: Forsdyke S, Foster E, Balot R (eds) The oxford handbook of  thucydides. Oxford University Press. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/oxfordhb\/9780199340385.001.0001<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Roser M, Ortiz-Ospina E, Ritchie H (2013) Life expectancy. Our world in data. https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/life-expectancy<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Schwab K (2019) Globalization 4.0: a new architecture for the fourth industrial revolution. Foreign Affairs. https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/world\/2019-01-16\/globalization-40<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Shelley PB (1818) Ozymandias. Poem<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Siskin C (2016) System: the shaping of modern knowledge, 1st edn. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Smil V (2019) Growth: from microorganisms to megacities, Illustrated. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Stephen Hawking\u2019s Universe (2010)<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Sweezy PM (1943) Professor Schumpeter\u2019s theory of innovation. Rev Econ Stat 25(1):93\u201396. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/1924551<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Tainter J (1988) The collapse of complex societies. Cambridge University Press<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Taleb N (2007) The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable, 1st edn. Random House, New York<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Taleb NN (2012) Antifragile: things that gain from disorder. Random House<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Vespignani A (2010) The fragility of interdependency. Nature 464(7291):984\u2013985. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/464984aADSCASCrossRefPubMed<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Walker  J, Cooper M (2011) Genealogies of resilience: from systems ecology to  the political economy of crisis adaptation. Secur Dialogue  42(2):143\u2013160. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0967010611399616<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Walker  SI, Packard N, Cody GD (2017) Re-Conceptualizing the origins of life.  Philos Trans Royal Soc Math Phys Eng Sci 375(2109):20160337. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsta.2016.0337ADSCAS<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

West  G (2017) Scale: the universal laws of life, growth, and death in  organisms, cities, and companies. Reprint edition. Penguin Books<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Wildavsky A, Dake K (1990) Theories of risk perception: who fears what and why? Daedalus 119(4):41\u201360<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Yoffee  N (2005) Myths of the archaic state: evolution of the earliest cities,  states, and civilizations. Cambridge University Press, New York<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Yoffee N, Cowgill GL (1988) The collapse of ancient states and civilizations. University of Arizona Press<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Zanden  JL, Baten J, Mira d\u2019Ercole M, Rijpma A, Smith C, Timmer M eds (2014)  How was life?: Global well-being since 1820. OECD Publishing, Paris. https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/statistics\/how-was-life-9789264214262-en.htm<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n

\uff08\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u53ef\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52a8<\/strong>\u67e5\u770b\uff09<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n

\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587\u901f\u9012\u680f\u76ee\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u6536\u5f55\u6765\u81eaNature\u3001Science<\/span>\u7b49\u9876\u520a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u63a8\u51fa\u8ba2\u9605\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u53f7\u300c\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u300d\u63a8\u9001\u8bba\u6587\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u626b\u63cf\u4e0b\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u5373\u53ef\u4e00\u952e\u8ba2\u9605\uff1a<\/span>
<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n