{"id":38177,"date":"2022-10-27T20:58:40","date_gmt":"2022-10-27T12:58:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=38177"},"modified":"2022-10-27T20:58:40","modified_gmt":"2022-10-27T12:58:40","slug":"%e6%8b%93%e5%b1%95%e5%af%b9%e7%94%9f%e6%80%81%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e4%b8%b4%e7%95%8c%e7%82%b9%e7%9a%84%e8%ae%a4%e8%af%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=38177","title":{"rendered":"\u62d3\u5c55\u5bf9\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Sonia K\u00e9fi, Camille Saade, Eric L. Berlow, Juliano S. Cabral, Emanuel A. Fronhofer<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5218\u5fd7\u822a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5218\u57f9\u6e90<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u5ba1\u6821<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9093\u4e00\u96ea<\/span> <\/span>| <\/strong><\/span>\u7f16\u8f91<\/strong><\/p>\n


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Scaling up our understanding of tipping points<\/span><\/p>\n

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https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rstb.2021.0386<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u56fe1. \u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u901f\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6d0b\u6d41\u3002| \u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/global-warming-speeding-earth-s-massive-ocean-currents<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u8db3\u4e4b\u5904\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5230\u7269\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7f51\u7edc\u8fdc\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u5bf9\u7fa4\u843d\u7684\u52a8\u6001\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u5f88\u91cd\u8981<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982[21,23,29]\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u98df\u7269\u7f51<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u7531\u6444\u98df\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7f51\u7edc\uff09<\/span>\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6210\u533a\u5757[29]\uff0c\u5373\u4f18\u5148\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u800c\u8f83\u5c11\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u7f51\u7edc\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u7fa4\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u533a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u51cf\u5c11\u6270\u52a8\u7684\u6269\u6563\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5c06\u6270\u52a8\u63a7\u5236\u5728\u5206\u533a\u5185[29]\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u5c3a\u5ea6<\/strong>\u4e0a\u51fa\u73b0\u66ff\u4ee3\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u4f46\u89c1\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u5728\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u66ff\u4ee3\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\u5c5e\u6027\u77e5\u4e4b\u751a\u5c11\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\uff08c\uff09\u5bf9\u57fa\u672c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u63d0\u793a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u5f88\u65e9\u5c31\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5f3a\u5316\u53cd\u9988\u5bf9\u66ff\u4ee3\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027[14,15]\u3002\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u53cd\u9988\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u7531\u7269\u79cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ee5\u53ca\u7269\u79cd\u4e0e\u975e\u751f\u7269\u73af\u5883\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u6784\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u662f\u7531\u6240\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4ea7\u751f\u7684[30] \u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e3a\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u5bfc\u81f4\u751f\u6001\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u66ff\u4ee3\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0cKaratayev \u7b49\u4eba[19]\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4e0e\u8d44\u6e90\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u591a\u7269\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u4e13\u95e8\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u4e00\u5bf9\u7269\u79cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u7269\u79cd\u53cd\u9988\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u7efc\u5408\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u4e0d\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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3. \u6269\u5c55\u5230\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1a\u7a7a\u95f4<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\uff08a\uff09\u9690\u6027\u7a7a\u95f4<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\uff08b\uff09\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e0a\u660e\u786e\u7684\u5143\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e0e\u7269\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\u76f8\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u95ee\uff0c\u5728\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u8fc7\u7269\u79cd\u8fd0\u52a8\u548c\u7269\u8d28\u901a\u91cf\u5728\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e0a\u76f8\u4e92\u8fde\u63a5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7a7a\u95f4\u7f51\u7edc\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u6269\u6563\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u8303\u5f0f\u4e0b\u660e\u786e\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u7a7a\u95f4\u7ed3\u6784\uff1a\uff08i\uff09\u8fde\u7eed\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5b83\u7f3a\u4e4f\u660e\u786e\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u6591\u5757\uff0c\u751f\u5883\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u76f8\u5bf9\u5747\u5300\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u89c1\u6587\u732e[41]\u4e2d Veluwe \u6e56\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff09<\/span>\uff1b\uff08ii\uff09\u79bb\u6563\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u4e8e\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u751f\u5883\uff0c\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u6591\u5757\u88ab\u4e2a\u4f53\u6563\u5e03\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u6d41\u52a8\u8fde\u63a5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\uff08i\uff09\u8fde\u7eed\u7a7a\u95f4<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e2a\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u5c40\u90e8\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7ecf\u8c03\u67e5\u4e86\u5f53\u8fd9\u79cd\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u8fde\u7eed\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u88ab\u8fde\u63a5\u65f6\uff0c\u5c40\u90e8\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u5982\u4f55\u6269\u6563\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e24\u79cd\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u4e2d\u6700\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u5f80\u5f80\u652f\u914d\u7740\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\uff1a\u4ece\u652f\u914d\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u8f6c\u79fb\u4f1a\u6062\u590d\uff0c\u800c\u5411\u652f\u914d\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u8f6c\u79fb\u4f1a\u4ee5\u6052\u5b9a\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u5728\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u4f20\u64ad<\/span>\uff08\u884c\u8fdb\u6ce2\uff09<\/span>[41,42]\u3002\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e00\u822c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5728\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u751f\u5883\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u201c\u7a7a\u95f4\u53cc\u7a33\u6001\u201d<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u4e24\u79cd\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u5728\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u5171\u5b58\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u9884\u8ba1\u4f1a\u5728\u5b8c\u5168\u5360\u9886\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u7a7a\u65f7\u72b6\u6001\u4e4b\u95f4\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u5c16\u9510\u7684\u8fc7\u6e21<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u533a\u57df\u53cc\u7a33\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6ede\u540e\u73b0\u8c61\u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u666f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u5927\u5927\u51cf\u5c11[41]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\uff08ii\uff09\u79bb\u6563\u7a7a\u95f4<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u79bb\u6563\u548c\u8fde\u7eed\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u73b0\u6709\u51e0\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u666f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u5b8c\u5168\u5360\u7528\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u7a7a\u65f7\u72b6\u6001\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fc7\u6e21\u53d8\u5f97\u5e73\u6ed1\u3002\u4eba\u53e3\u968f\u673a\u6027[44]\u3001\u73af\u5883\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5f02\u8d28\u6027[44,45]\u6216\u6563\u5e03\u7387[41]\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u7a7a\u95f4\u53cc\u6001\u6027\u548c\u5e73\u6ed1\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8fc7\u6e21\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\uff08c\uff09\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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4. \u4fc3\u8fdb\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u673a\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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