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\u6a21\u62df\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7231\u5c14\u6cd5\u9c81\u9152\u5427\u6bcf\u5468\u7684\u5230\u573a\u7387\u4e28\u56fe\u6e90\uff1aArthur W B. Complexity in economic theory: Inductive reasoning and bounded rationality[J]. The American Economic Review, 1994, 84(2): 406-411.<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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1999\u5e74\uff0c\u963f\u745f\u5728\u300a\u79d1\u5b66\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u201d\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u81f3\u4eca\u3002\u800c\u968f\u7740\u963f\u745f\u7b49\u4eba\u4ee5\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u9488\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c55\u5f00\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u540d\u53f7\u4e5f\u6108\u53d1\u54cd\u4eae\u3002\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5750\u843d\u5728\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u57ce\u90ca\u5916\u7684\u5c0f\u5c71\u4e0a\uff0c\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a\u201c\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5723\u5730\u201d\u3002\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6781\u5c11\u6709\u957f\u8058\u7814\u7a76\u5458\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ee5\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\u8bbf\u95ee\u5b66\u8005\u4e3a\u4e3b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6d89\u53ca\u9886\u57df\u6781\u5176\u5bbd\u5e7f\u4e14\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5f3a\u3002\u4e00\u7fa4\u53c8\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e0d\u540c\u5b66\u79d1\u9886\u57df\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6765\u5230\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u5728\u4e0b\u5348\u8336\u65f6\u6bb5\u4e8e\u5496\u5561\u5385\u548c\u9152\u5427\u76f8\u805a\uff0c\u795e\u804a\u751a\u6b22\u3001\u610f\u72b9\u672a\u5c3d\u4e4b\u4f59\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u56de\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u5927\u7684\u529e\u516c\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u7ee7\u7eed\u4f0f\u6848\u6df1\u601d\u3001\u55d2\u55d2\u51fb\u952e\u3002\u963f\u745f\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u7fa4\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u3002
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\u8fd9\u4e00\u522b\u5177\u4e00\u683c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\u7684\u8bde\u751f\uff0c\u6e90\u4e8e1984\u5e74\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u8003\u6e29<\/span>\uff08George Cowan\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u4e24\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u300280\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u8003\u6e29\u88ab\u9080\u8bf7\u5728\u767d\u5bab\u79d1\u5b66\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4efb\u804c\uff0c\u4ed6\u6df1\u611f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u51b7\u6218\u3001\u827e\u6ecb\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u673a\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7b49\u590d\u6742\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65e0\u529b\u3002\u8003\u6e29\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5206\u5316\u6210\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u9635\u8425\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u76f8\u4e92\u5ffd\u89c6\uff0c\u800c\u548c\u89e3\u7684\u91cd\u62c5\u843d\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0e\u540c\u4e8b\u8eab\u4e0a\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u7531\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e3b\u52a8\u586b\u8865\u8fd9\u9053\u88c2\u9699\u3002\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u4f1a\u8bae\u4ee5\u201c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u7efc\u5408\u4f53\u201d\u4e3a\u4e3b\u9898\uff0c\u9080\u8bf7\u6765\u81ea\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u7406\u8bba\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7b49\u4e0d\u540c\u5b66\u79d1\u9886\u57df\u7684\u591a\u4f4d\u5b66\u8005\u53c2\u4e0e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5c31\u5305\u62ec\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u00b7\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee<\/span>\uff08Philip Anderson\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u9ed8\u91cc\u00b7\u76d6\u5c14\u66fc<\/span>\uff08Murray Gell-Mann\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u80af\u5c3c\u65af\u00b7\u963f\u7f57<\/span>\uff08Kenneth Arrow\uff09<\/span>\u4e09\u4f4d\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u91cd\u78c5\u53d1\u8d77\u4eba\u3002\u5728\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u653e\u4e0b\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u8d85\u8d8a\u4f20\u7edf\u548c\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u6fc0\u70c8\u601d\u60f3\u78b0\u649e\uff0c\u5b66\u79d1\u754c\u9650\u88ab\u6e10\u6b21\u6253\u7834\u3002
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George Cowan in “The Mother Superior’s Office”\u4e28<\/span>\u56fe\u6e90\uff1aSanta Fe Institute<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5e26\u52a8\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5e76\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u7279\u8272\u9c9c\u660e\u7684\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u5b66\u6d3e\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u9646\u7eed\u63d0\u70bc\u51fa\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u9020\u5c31\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span>\uff08Adaptation Builds Complexity\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u9690\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4ee5\u7231\u5c14\u6cd5\u9c81\u9152\u5427\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u573a\u666f\u5efa\u6784\u590d\u6742\u5206\u6790\u57fa\u51c6\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08CAS\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u6f14\u5316\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u548c\u57fa\u4e8e\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u9057\u4f20\u7b97\u6cd5\u7b49\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u6280\u672f\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u805a\u7126\u5e38\u6001\u56e0\u679c\u548c\u5f02\u8c61\u6d8c\u73b0\uff0c\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e0e\u7fa4\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u5173\u7cfb\u8fd9\u4e00\u591a\u79d1\u4ea4\u6c47\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u7814\u53d1\u63a8\u51fa\u4eba\u5de5\u80a1\u5e02\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u5927\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edfASPEN\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u5e73\u53f0Swarm\u7b49\u3002
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\u2022 \u4e2a\u4f53\u559c\u597d<\/span>\uff08\u6df1\u5165\u5dee\u522b\u5316\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5185\u6838\u4e0e\u5173\u952e\u7279\u5f81\u4e2d\uff09<\/span>\u3002
\u2022 \u7fa4\u5185\u4ea4\u4e92<\/span>\uff08\u5173\u8054\u4e3b\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u73af\u5883\uff09<\/span>\u3002
\u2022 \u603b\u4f53\u5f62\u6001<\/span>\uff08\u5206\u7c7b\u8003\u5bdf\u7531\u5fae\u89c2\u5230\u5b8f\u89c2\u3001\u7531\u4e2a\u91cf\u751f\u6210\u603b\u91cf\u7684\u52a0\u603b\u6a21\u5f0f\uff09<\/span>\u3002
\u2022 \u53cc\u5411\u53cd\u9988<\/span>\uff08\u5fae\u89c2\u6210\u56e0\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u81ea\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b\u4e0e\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u6784\u5efa\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2a\u4f53\u5bf9\u8f6c\u57fa\u56e0\u548c\u75ab\u82d7\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u8f6c\u53d8\uff08belief change\uff09\u4e28\u56fe\u6e90\uff1aDalege J, van der Does T. Using a cognitive network model of moral and social beliefs to explain belief change[J]. Science advances, 2022, 8(33): eabm0137.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5bf9\u5fae\u89c2\u4e3b\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u523b\u753b\u4e0e\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u79d1\u5b66\u53ef\u884c\u3001\u9ad8\u6548\u4fbf\u5229\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66<\/span>\uff08computational social science\uff09<\/span>\u5feb\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5229\u7528\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u6280\u672f\u7b49\uff0c\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u8fd0\u884c\u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5165\u3001\u7cbe\u7ec6\u7684\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u5316\u201d\u662f\u4eba\u6587\u793e\u4f1a\u9886\u57df\u957f\u671f\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u5b66\u79d1\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5982\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u201d\u4ecd\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u4e89\u8bae\u3002\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6570\u636e\u7684\u91c7\u96c6\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u590d\u6742\u7684\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u5efa\u6a21\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u66f4\u4e3a\u8d34\u8fd1\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u201d\u7684\u8303\u5f0f\u3002
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The Quark and the Jaguar<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Murray Gell-Mann<\/span><\/p>\n

St Martin’s Griffin, 1995<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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