{"id":38632,"date":"2022-11-21T21:27:12","date_gmt":"2022-11-21T13:27:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=38632"},"modified":"2022-11-21T21:27:12","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T13:27:12","slug":"scott-page%ef%bc%9a%e5%85%b3%e4%ba%8e%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e6%80%a7%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%ef%bc%8c%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e7%9f%a5%e9%81%93%e8%bf%99%e4%ba%9b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=38632","title":{"rendered":"Scott Page\uff1a\u5173\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u9700\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e9b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u76f4\u5230\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\uff08Complexity Sciences\uff0c\u6216\u8bd1\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\uff09\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u95e8\u5b66\u79d1\u51fa\u73b0\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u63a2\u7d22\u9053\u8def\u59cb\u7ec8\u5d0e\u5c96\u8270\u96be\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684Scott E. Page\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u64b0\u5199\u4e86\u672c\u7bc7\u7efc\u8ff0\uff0c\u68b3\u7406\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\uff08complexity sciences\uff09\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u5de5\u5177\u548c\u601d\u8def\u3002\u672c\u6587\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3001\u6b63\u5728\u84ec\u52c3\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4ee5\u53ca\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f17\u591a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e4b\u5f02\u540c\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u80fd\u591f\u4ea7\u751f\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u591a\u6837\u6027 (diversity)\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u5316\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u7ed3\u6784 (networked interactions)\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u884c\u4e3a  (interdependent behavior) \u4ee5\u53ca\u9002\u5e94\uff08adaptation\uff09\u3002\u63a5\u7740\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u68b3\u7406\u4e86\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u6700\u6709\u5171\u9e23\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6210\u679c\u5206\u4e3a\u56db\u79cd\u7c7b\u522b\uff1a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66 (dynamics)\u3001\u805a\u96c6 (aggregation)\u3001\u5206\u5e03 (distributions) \u4ee5\u53ca\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u5c5e\u6027\uff08functional properties of structure and diversity\uff09\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5c06\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7eb3\u5165\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u9700\u8981\u5f15\u5165\u65b0\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u63a2\u7d22\u66f4\u52a0\u5e7f\u9614\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u800c\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u5438\u6536\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5927\u6709\u88e8\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff0c\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c \u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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Scott E. Page<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5355\u4fca\u6770<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5218\u57f9\u6e90<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| <\/strong><\/span>\u5ba1\u6821<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/span>What Sociologists Should Know About Complexity<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u5c06\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u89c6\u4f5c\u4e00\u79cd\u5177\u6709\u53d8\u9769\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u201c\u65b0\u79d1\u5b66\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u65b0\u79d1\u5b66\u201d\u5c06\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5b9e\u8df5<\/span> (Wolfram 2002) <\/span>\u3002\u800c\u6211\u5219\u6301\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u4e3a\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u66fe\u7ecf\u65e0\u4eba\u95ee\u6d25\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5f53\u524d\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u8865\u5145\u3002\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u53ea\u7bad<\/span>  (Castellani & Hafferty 2009) <\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u652f\u7bad\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6539\u5584\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4ee5\u53ca\u6307\u5bfc\u548c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u9009\u62e9<\/span> (Colander & Kupers 2014) <\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e3a\u4e86\u660e\u786e\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u6211\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u53d1\u73b0\u3001\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e2a\u4eba\u5316<\/span>\uff08\u800c\u4e14\u6709\u70b9\u7279\u7acb\u72ec\u884c\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u6709\u9009\u62e9\u5730\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5df2\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8bd5\u56fe\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4ea4\u96c6\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u9762\u7684\u6587\u732e\u56de\u987e\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u8981\u6c42\u628a\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u5bf9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u56de\u987e\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u66f4\u4e3a\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u6587\u732e\u56de\u987e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7684\u5173\u8054\u59cb\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u5171\u9e23\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5c40\u5916\u4eba\u770b\u5230\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u8fd9\u95e8\u5b66\u79d1\u8bd5\u56fe\u5408\u7406\u5316\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e0e\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u4f53\u2014\u2014\u7fa4\u4f53\u3001\u9636\u7ea7\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u2014\u2014\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e92\u52a8\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5fc3\u7406\u3001\u6587\u5316\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u6b63\u5f0f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6240\u5f62\u5851\u3002\u7b80\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4f53<\/span>\uff08agents\uff09<\/span>\u8eab\u5904\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u7fa4\u7c7b\u548c\u5730\u57df\u7b49\u73af\u5883\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73af\u5883\u6216\u573a\u57df\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u6838\u5fc3\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08Bourdieu 1984, 1993\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u62e5\u62b1\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u5047\u5b9a\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u751f\u6d3b\u90fd\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u2014\u2014\u5141\u8bb8\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3001\u7fa4\u7c7b\u548c\u6280\u672f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u521b\u65b0\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u590d\u6742\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u975e\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u90e8\u5206\u7814\u7a76\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u5176\u6210\u5458\u800c\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u6027\u8d28<\/span>\uff08Byrne & Callaghan 2014, Little 2012, Sawyer 2005\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u7f1c\u5bc6\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5360\u636e\u4e86\u6838\u5fc3\u5730\u4f4d<\/span>\uff08Xie 2007\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7b80\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7531\u5d4c\u5165\u7684\u3001\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u3001\u591a\u6837\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u6784\u6210\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u66f4\u9ad8\u9636\u7684\u7ed3\u6784<\/span>\uff08\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u529f\u80fd<\/span>\uff08\u6d8c\u73b0\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u6240\u5438\u5f15\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u5417\uff1f\u884c\u4e3a\u5982\u4f55\u805a\u96c6\uff1f\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u7ed3\u6784\uff1f\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u54ea\u4e9b\u8de8\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff1f\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u662f\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u5417\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u5417\uff1f\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6240\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u4ee4\u4eba\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\u4f46\u53c8\u5931\u4e4b\u7247\u9762\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u63cf\u8ff0\u548c\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5bb9\u6613\u6536\u5230\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5bb9\u6613\u4ea7\u751f\u8de8\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u957f\u5c3e\u5206\u5e03<\/span> (Miller & Page 2007, Mitchell 2009) <\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u628a\u63e1\u5730\u5ba3\u79f0<\/span>\uff08\u4f7f\u7528\u7ef4\u6069\u56fe\u672f\u8bed\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u5b50\u96c6\u76f8\u91cd\u5408\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5185\u5bb9\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u90fd\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5305\u62ec\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u5185\u5bb9\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e0d\u592a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u6a21\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08Nagel & Paczuski 1995\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5d29\u6e83<\/span>\uff08Goldin & Mariathasan 2014\uff09<\/span>\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb<\/span>\uff08Jervis 1998\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u7c7b\u3002\u5b83\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u7269\u7406\u3001\u751f\u7269\u548c\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u78c1\u94c1\u3001\u795e\u7ecf\u5143\u3001\u871c\u8702\u3001\u68ee\u6797\u706b\u707e\u548c\u96ea\u5d29\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u601d\u8003\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4ea4\u96c6\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5728\u83b7\u53d6\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6781\u5927\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u8bf4\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u6c99\u76d8\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u95f4\u63a5\u5730\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5982\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5e73\u8861\u3001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6216\u968f\u673a\u6027<\/span>\uff08Page 2008\uff0cHidalgo et al. 2014\uff0cWolfram 2002\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6216\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5982\u4f55\u53d7\u5230\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784<\/span>\uff08Newman 2010\uff0cWatts 2004\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56<\/span>\uff08Durlauf & Ioannides 2010\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u591a\u6837\u6027<\/span>\uff08Page 2007\uff0c2010\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u5b66\u4e60<\/span>\uff08Epstein 2014\uff0cVriend 2000\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u7a7a\u95f4\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u6570\u636e\u76f8\u8fde\u63a5\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7<\/span>\uff08Helbing 2010\uff09<\/span>\u5230\u6587\u5316\u3001\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad<\/span>\uff08Tassier 2013\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u8bf8\u591a\u4e3b\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u628a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u79f0\u4e3a\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e00\u5bf9\u591a\u7279\u6027\u3002\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u4e3a\u5355\u4e00\u76ee\u7684\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u76ee\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u63a2\u7d22\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u800c\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u72af\u7f6a<\/span>\uff08Akers & Lanier 2009\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u80a5\u80d6<\/span>\uff08Akers & Lanier 2009\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u6b4c\u661f\u8d3e\u65af\u6c40\u00b7\u6bd4\u4f2f<\/span>\uff08Tweedle & Smith 2011\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5e94\u7528\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u4e00\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6269\u6563<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0b\u8f7d\u6bd4\u4f2f\u7684\u6b4c\u66f2\uff09<\/span>\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u6765\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u670b\u53cb\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed9\u4f60\u5e26\u6765\u9ebb\u75b9\uff0c\u5979\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed9\u4f60\u5e26\u6765\u6bd4\u4f2f\u70ed\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6bd4\u4f2f\u70ed\u662f\u5728\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u4e0a\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u9ebb\u75b9\u662f\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u901a\u8fc7\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fd1\u4f3c\u5730\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u7ae0\u8282\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u63cf\u8ff0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3001\u60f3\u6cd5\u548c\u6d1e\u89c1\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60f3\u6cd5\u88ab\u5f52\u5c5e\u4e8e\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u805a\u96c6\u3001\u5206\u5e03\u4ee5\u53ca\u591a\u6837\u6027\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u5c5e\u6027\u7b49\u7c7b\u522b\u3002\u6211\u5c06\u4f9d\u6b21\u8ba8\u8bba\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u7c7b\u522b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8bc4\u8bba\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5185\u90e8\u8981\u5438\u6536\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6210\u679c\u9700\u8981\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c06\u65b0\u7684\u3001\u5927\u7684\u6570\u636e\u7528\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f7f\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u5176\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u6613\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u6211\u9996\u5148\u7b80\u8981\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u542b\u4e49\uff0c\u5e76\u4ecb\u7ecd\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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2. \u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u590d\u6742\u6027\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u5927\u8111\u3001\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7a0e\u6536\u7801\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u4e2d\u5b66\u3001\u86cb\u767d\u8d28\u6298\u53e0\u3001\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u8682\u8681\u7fa4\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u800c\u4e14\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u671f\u671b\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u6216\u7edf\u8ba1\u6765\u6355\u6349\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u672c\u8d28<\/span>\uff08Mitchell 2009, Page 2010\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u8981\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u4ece\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\u5bb6 Michael Cohen \u66fe\u7ecf\u8bf4\u8fc7\u7684\u201c\u9690\u55bb\u7684\u8282\u5e86\u201d\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u4e00\u95e8\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u548c\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9700\u8981\u6d4b\u91cf\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d4b\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u5230\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u65e0\u6570\u542b\u4e49\u548c\u7ec6\u5fae\u5dee\u522b\u3002\u800c\u673a\u4f1a\u5219\u5728\u4e8e\u5404\u79cd\u6d4b\u91cf\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u6325\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u6d4b\u91cf\u90fd\u80fd\u6355\u6349\u5230\u201c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u201d\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u542b\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6d4b\u91cf\u65e2\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4e94\u82b1\u516b\u95e8\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u5404\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u96c6\u5408\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u90fd\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u540e\u4e00\u79cd\u63cf\u8ff0\u66f4\u4e3a\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u63a5\u53d7\u591a\u79cd\u5b9a\u4e49\u5e76\u63a2\u7d22\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u70b9\u548c\u72ec\u7279\u6027\u6765\u83b7\u5f97\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u51fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u9996\u5148\u5bf9\u591a\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u7b80\u8981\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6709\u4e86\u4e00\u7ec4\u6570\u636e\u5c31\u80fd\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6d4b\u91cf\u3002\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u7ec4\u5e76\u53d1\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14500\u6307\u6570\u4e2d\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u4ef7\u683c\u96c6\u5408\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5dde\u5b89\u5a1c\u5821\u5e02\u5854\u6f58\u4e2d\u5b66\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u667a\u80fd\u624b\u673a\u4e0a\u6bcf\u5929\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u64ad\u653e\u5217\u8868\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5404\u79cd\u6d4b\u91cf\uff0c\u6bcf\u7ec4\u6570\u636e\u90fd\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7684\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u90fd\u5f88\u96be\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u5f88\u591a\u6587\u5b57\u6765\u8868\u8fbe\u3002\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u8bed\u8a00\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u957f\u5ea6\u6216\u79d1\u5c14\u83ab\u6208\u7f57\u592b\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u64ad\u653e\u5217\u8868\u65e2\u4e0d\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684<\/span>\uff08Wolfram 2002\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u65e2\u8574\u542b\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u53c8\u7f3a\u4e4f\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u8bc6\u522b\u5e76\u53bb\u9664\u6bcf\u7ec4\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\uff0c\u7cbe\u5999\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u5c31\u4f1a\u4fdd\u7559\u4e0b\u6765\u3002\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53bb\u6389\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u6027\u800c\u5f97\u4ee5\u4fdd\u7559\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u79f0\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u4fe1\u606f\u6216\u8d85\u989d\u71b5<\/span>\uff08\u89c1 Prokopenko et al. 2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8d85\u989d\u71b5<\/span>\uff08excess entropy\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u975e\u968f\u673a\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f60\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u975e\u968f\u673a\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u660e\u767d\u3002\u800c\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u71b5\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u503c\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u91c7\u7528\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fd8\u662f\u81ea\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u7ec4\u5e8f\u5217\u90fd\u5f88\u96be\u91cd\u73b0\u3002\u80fd\u591f\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u65e0\u5dee\u522b\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u96c6\u5408\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u6a21\u578b\u5fc5\u987b\u5305\u542b\u8bb8\u591a\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u72b6\u6001[\u6ce81]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7edf\u8ba1\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u5305\u542b\u5927\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f<\/span>\uff08Adami 2002\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u64ad\u653e\u5217\u8868\u6765\u8bf4\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u505a\u51fa\u9009\u62e9\u65f6\u6240\u5904\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d1e\u89c1\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u6765\u8bf4\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u719f\u6089\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u79d1\u6765\u8bf4\u5374\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b0\u9896\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6ce81\uff1a\u6211\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u72b6\u6001\u662f\u6307\u8be5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4ee5\u975e\u5fae\u5f31\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bbf\u95ee\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0a\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u5177\u6709\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u6784\u53ef\u80fd\u8574\u542b\u7740\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u5b9a\u4e49\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u89e3\u91ca\u3001\u6784\u5efa\u6216\u6f14\u5316\u3002\u66f4\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u8bf4<\/span>\uff08Page 2010\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f BOAR<\/span>\uff08\u4ecb\u4e8e\u6709\u5e8f\u548c\u968f\u673a\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0cbetween ordered and random\uff09<\/span>\u4ee5\u53ca DEEEP<\/span>\uff08\u96be\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u3001\u6f14\u5316\u3001\u6784\u5efa\u6216\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c(difficult to explain, evolve, engineer, or predict)\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5173\u4e8e\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u90fd\u88ab\u786e\u5b9a\u4e3a\u6570\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u76f4\u89c2\u6982\u5ff5\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5373\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b80\u5355\u3002\u5b83\u5f88\u96be\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6b63\u5982\u521a\u624d\u6240\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5177\u6709\u73b0\u8c61\u5b66\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5f15\u51fa\u4e86\u5b83\u5982\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u7531\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f80\u5f80\u6709\u56db\u79cd\u5c5e\u6027\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5305\u542b\u591a\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u591a\u6837\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e0e\u751f\u4ff1\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u7269\u79cd\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5728\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u4ece<\/span>\uff08\u51e0\u4e4e\uff09<\/span>\u76f8\u540c\u7684DNA\u94fe\u5206\u5316\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7ec6\u80de\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5b9e\u4f53\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e92\u52a8\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u6784\u6700\u597d\u88ab\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5c42\u6b21\u4e2d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u662f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u52a0\u77ed\u6682\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u5929\u5b9e\u9645\u63a5\u89e6\u5230\u7684\u4eba\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u3001\u6c38\u6052\u7684\u65b0\u7f51\u7edc\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u6216\u884c\u4e3a\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5165\u4fb5\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u591a\u79cd\u5373\u65f6\u53cd\u5e94\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u66f4\u5fae\u5999\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u964c\u751f\u4eba\u7684\u65b0\u53d1\u578b\u6216\u8863\u670d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5bf9\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u5b9e\u4f53\u80fd\u591f\u9002\u5e94\u6216\u5b66\u4e60\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9e\u4f53\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u8054\u7ed3\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u9002\u5e94\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u5728\u5b9e\u4f53\u81ea\u8eab\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e24\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u5728\u5b66\u4e60\u6216\u9002\u5e94\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e5f\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u9002\u5e94<\/span>\uff08\u5426\u5219\u5b83\u4eec\u5c06\u4e0d\u80fd\u957f\u671f\u751f\u5b58\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u5b66\u4e60\uff1f\u5c1d\u8bd5\u3001\u6a21\u4eff\u548c\u9009\u62e9\u90fd\u662f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08Vriend 2000\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u800c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u53c8\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5<\/span>\uff08Golman & Page 2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5177\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u6027\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u88ab\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u548c\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u80fd\u591f\u4ea7\u751f\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u201d\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\u4f1a\u66f4\u51c6\u786e<\/span>\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5f88\u8fc2\u8150\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e0a\u8ff0\u89c2\u70b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u4e3a\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u8868\u8fbe\u4e3a\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u7531\u8682\u8681\u3001\u516c\u53f8\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fd8\u662f\u8de8\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u591a\u7c7b\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a\u5747\u8861\u3001\u591a\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u968f\u673a\u6027<\/span>\uff08Wolfram 2002\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u65e2\u5305\u62ec\u5468\u671f\u6027\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5982\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5982\u72af\u7f6a\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\u3001\u5bf9\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u65e5\u76ca\u63a5\u53d7\uff0c\u6216\u793e\u4f1a\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u51cf\u5c11<\/span>\uff08Putnam 2000\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u591a\u7c7b\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u4e0b\u4e16\u754c\u77f3\u6cb9\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb60\u5e74\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u751f\u4ea7\u56fe\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u8d8b\u52bf<\/span>\uff08\u6d77\u6e7e\u6218\u4e89\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u504f\u5dee\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u77f3\u6cb9\u751f\u4ea7\u7d27\u8ddf\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5b83\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u800c\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u56fe\u5219\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4ecb\u4e8e\u6709\u5e8f\u548c\u968f\u673a\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u5f88\u96be\u63cf\u8ff0\u3001\u89e3\u91ca\u6216\u9884\u6d4b<\/span>\uff08\u89c1\u56fe1\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e00\u53e5\u8bdd\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe1\uff1a\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e0e\u4ef7\u683c\u5386\u5e74\u53d8\u5316<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u7406\u8bba\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u6301\u7eed\u4f46\u6709\u9650\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55<\/span>\uff08Tao 2012\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4f7f\u7528\u590d\u6570\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u770b\u6cd5\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u975e\u5927\u8c61\u95ee\u9898\u201d\u4e0a\uff0c\u5373 John von Neumann \u548c Stanislaw Ulam \u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u8c03\u4f83\uff1a\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u975e\u5927\u8c61\u52a8\u7269\u7684\u96c6\u5408<\/span>\uff08Fisher 1987\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u4e5f\u8bb8\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u80fd\u591f\u5305\u542b\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8ba4\u8bc6\u7684\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4efb\u4f55\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u7406\u8bba\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u5b83\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4f1a\u6307\u51fa\u5728\u5927\u8111\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u3001\u5929\u6c14\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u751f\u6001\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u77e5\u8bc6\u754c\u548c\u8682\u8681\u7fa4\u4e2d\u90fd\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u771f\u7684\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u5417\uff1f\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\u3002\u8682\u8681\u7fa4\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u98d3\u98ce\u6216\u906d\u53d7\u766b\u75eb\u53d1\u4f5c\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u975e\u5927\u8c61\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u5171\u540c\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u805a\u96c6\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e9b\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u65e2\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u7a33\u5065\u6027<\/span>\uff08Jen 2005\uff09<\/span>\u53c8\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span>\uff08Ramo 2009\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f88\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e5f\u4ea7\u751f\u957f\u5c3e\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5373\u975e\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u57ce\u5e02\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u4ea4\u901a\u5835\u585e\u7684\u957f\u5ea6\u3001\u516c\u53f8\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u6218\u4e89\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u3001\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u548c\u5f15\u7528\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u90fd\u6709\u957f\u5c3e\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4f46\u4f3c\u4e4e\u786e\u5b9e\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u3001\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u6211\u5728\u4e0b\u6587\u4e2d\u4f1a\u8be6\u7ec6\u5730\u63d0\u5230\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5171\u540c\u6027\u8d28\u5305\u62ec\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u6d8c\u73b0\u3001\u8fb9\u754c\u548c\u6c34\u5e73<\/span>\uff08Holland 2014\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u3001\u9608\u503c\u73b0\u8c61<\/span>\uff08\u53c8\u79f0\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u4ea7\u751f<\/span>\uff081955\u5e74\u8d22\u5bcc500\u5f3a\u4e2d\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u670910%\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u81f3\u4eca\u4ecd\u5728\u8be5\u540d\u5355\u4e0a\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e73\u8861\u63a2\u7d22\u4e0e\u5229\u7528\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5f20\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73b0\u8c61\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7a7a\u95f4\u3001\u751f\u7269\u3001\u751f\u6001\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u865a\u62df\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u3002\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5177\u6709\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u63d0\u4f9b\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u7f3a\u4e4f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u4ecd\u7136\u5305\u542b\u5927\u91cf\u8fde\u8d2f\u548c\u5173\u8054\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u6784\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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3. \u56fe\u89e3\u6d8c\u73b0<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6211\u91c7\u7528\u56fe\u5f62\u8868\u8fbe\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c<\/span>\uff08\u56fe2\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8be5\u56fe\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u5373\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u5411\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u9014\u5f84\u662f\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u7684<\/span>\uff08Iwasa et al. 1987\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5206\u6790\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5355\u4f4d\u662f\u4e3b\u4f53\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08Macy & Willer 2002\uff09<\/span>\u3002[\u6ce82] \u7f6e\u8eab\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u88ab\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e86\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u53d7\u7ea6\u675f<\/span>\uff08Epstein 2014, Miller & Page 2007\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u805a\u96c6\u884c\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6216\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u6027\u6216\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002\u8bbe\u60f3\u628a\u5b69\u5b50\u9001\u5230\u8425\u5730\uff0c\u628a\u5b69\u5b50\u7684\u88c5\u5907\u5b89\u6392\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u5c4b\u91cc\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5f00\u8f66\u79bb\u5f00\uff0c\u8ba9\u4e00\u5207\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6ce82\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u4e3b\u4f53\u653e\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d (Wellman 2014) \uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u5c06\u5176\u4e0e\u4f9d\u8d56\u603b\u4f53\u72b6\u6001\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u533a\u5206\u5f00\u6765 (Sterman 2000)\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u56fe2\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u4e3b\u4f53\u5230\u5b8f\u89c2\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8fd9\u5728\u56fe\u4e2d\u663e\u793a\u5982\u4e0b\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9<\/span>\uff08\u56fe\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4t\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e00\u7ec4\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53<\/span>\uff08\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u4eba\u6216\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff09<\/span>\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u5728\u56fe\u4e2d\u7684\u5de6\u4e0b\u89d2\u8868\u793a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u805a\u96c6\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u9ad8\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u73b0\u8c61<\/span>\uff08\u7528Yt\u8868\u793a\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u5728\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ea\u753b\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u5c42\u6b21\uff1b\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u7248\u672c\u5e94\u8be5\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u95f4\u5c42\u6b21<\/span>\uff08Little 2012\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4eba\u805a\u6210\u7fa4\uff0c\u7fa4\u4f53\u805a\u96c6\u5219\u751f\u6210\u793e\u4f1a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8be5\u56fe\u8fd8\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u81ea\u8eab\u8574\u542b\u7740\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u5728\u56fe\u7684\u9876\u90e8\u52a0\u5165\u56e0\u679c\u7bad\u5934\uff0c\u4f7f\u6d8c\u73b0\u56fe\u4e0e\u79d1\u5c14\u66fc\u4e4b\u821f\u533a\u522b\u5f00\u6765<\/span>\uff08Little 2012\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2<\/span>\uff08\u4e2d\u89c2\uff09<\/span>\u5c42\u9762\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u90e8\u5206\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6027\u8d28\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff1a\u4e2d\u89c2\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762<\/span>\uff08Sawyer 2005\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6027\u8d28\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\uff0c\u5982\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u6216\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5982\u5f15\u5bfc\u8239\u53ea\u5230\u6e2f\u53e3<\/span>\uff08Hutchins 1996\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5b66\u8005\u4e0d\u8bf4\u6574\u4f53\u5927\u4e8e\u90e8\u5206\u4e4b\u548c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5f15\u7528\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6 Philip Anderson<\/span>\uff081972\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4ed6\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u591a\u8005\u5f02\u4e5f\u201d<\/span>\uff08More is Different\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u6293\u4f4f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u5373\u5b8f\u89c2\u548c\u5fae\u89c2\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8be5\u56fe\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7528\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e3b\u4f53\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u6027\u8d28\u548c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u5728\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5efa\u7acb\u56e0\u679c\u8054\u7cfb\u6bd4\u8f83\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5355\u4f4d\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u78b3\u539f\u5b50\u6216\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u78c1\u4f53\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5355\u4f4d\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u2014\u2014\u662f\u72ec\u7279\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u5bf9\u805a\u96c6\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u66f4\u52a0\u56f0\u96be\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u5c5e\u6027\u548c\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u7528\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u6765\u8868\u8fbe\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6c34\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u5206\u5b50\u4e0d\u5177\u5907\u7684\u6e7f\u6027\u548c\u7c98\u6027\u7b49\u5c5e\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6c34\u5728\u5ca9\u77f3\u4e0a\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u3002\u7406\u60f3\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6d8c\u73b0\u5c5e\u6027\u53ca\u5176\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u7684\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u6ce2\u6d6a\u7684\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u4eba\u6d41\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u6765\u7684<\/span>\uff08Helbing 2010\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f46\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e76\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u8fd9\u6837\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u4ecd\u7136\u4fdd\u6301\u795e\u79d8\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u610f\u8bc6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4ece\u6d8c\u73b0\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u5bf9\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u73b0\u8c61\u7c7b\u578b\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4efb\u4f55\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a33\u5b9a\u5728\u4e00\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53c8\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u5199\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u6700\u5927\u503c\u6216\u6700\u5c0f\u503c\u7684\u52bf\u80fd\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6bcf\u5f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u5904\u4e8e\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u52bf\u80fd\u81f3\u5c11\u589e\u52a0\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fa\u5b9a\u91cf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u7cfb\u7edf\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230\u5747\u8861\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5305\u62ec\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e24\u65b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\u5c06\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u52bf\u80fd\u51fd\u6570\u5c31\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u503c\u5f97\u89e3\u8bfb\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u96c6\u5e02\u4e0a<\/span>\uff08\u4e00\u4e2a\u7eaf\u7cb9\u7684\u4ea4\u6362\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u624d\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u6ca1\u6709\u53c2\u4e0e\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u4eba\u662f\u4e0d\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u8d38\u6613\u90fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u603b\u6548\u7528<\/span>\uff08\u603b\u798f\u5229\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u52bf\u80fd\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8d38\u6613\u6700\u7ec8\u5fc5\u987b\u505c\u6b62<\/span>\uff08\u8fbe\u5230\u5747\u8861\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u540c\u6837\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u534f\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08<\/span>\uff08Page 1997\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u53cd\u534f\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08<\/span>\uff08Page 2001\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9009\u62e9\u4f55\u65f6\u53bb\u8d2d\u7269\uff0c\u4f55\u65f6\u53bb\u5065\u8eab\u623f\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u6216\u5546\u4e1a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8054\u76df\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7ec4\u6210\u8054\u76df\u7684\u53cc\u65b9\u53d7\u76ca\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u635f\u5bb3\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u3002\u603b\u6548\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4f1a\u505c\u6b62\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8054\u76df\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u666e\u904d\u7684\u6548\u7528\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5fae\u89c2\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u90fd\u8574\u542b\u7740\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6700\u597d\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5219\u4e0d\u7136<\/span>\uff08Shalizi et al. 2004\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c4\u5219\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u3002\u5728\u7ea6\u4f1a\u6216\u914d\u5076\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e3b\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u9075\u5faa\u5bf9\u5c40\u90e8\u548c\u5168\u5c40\u4fe1\u606f\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c4\u5219\u5c06\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u591a\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u968f\u7740\u4e3b\u4f53\u5b66\u4e60\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u76f8\u5e94\u5730\u8c03\u6574\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7ecf\u5e38\u7684\u662f\u4ea7\u751f\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u8fde\u4e32\u7684\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u6027\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5373\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span>\uff08LeBaron 2001\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8fd9\u79cd\u5728\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0a\u5efa\u7acb\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u3001\u968f\u673a\u3001\u4e00\u822c\u3001\u5747\u8861<\/span>\uff08DSGE\uff09<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u5f62\u6210\u9c9c\u660e\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b DSGE \u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u88ab\u5047\u5b9a\u4e3a\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u90fd\u5bfb\u6c42\u8fbe\u5230\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5e76\u5047\u8bbe\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90e8\u5206\u5bfb\u6c42\u5b9e\u73b0\u65b0\u7684\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u901a\u5f80\u5747\u8861\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u800c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e3b\u4f53\u4e0d\u5177\u5907\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u8bba\u5c5e\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u5c06\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u671f\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u505a\u5f97\u5b8c\u7f8e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u4e3b\u4f53\u6240\u9075\u5faa\u7684\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u5b9a\u70b9\u5b9a\u7406\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5747\u8861\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4e00\u7fa4\u5177\u6709\u5b66\u4e60\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u4eec\u5c06\u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u5747\u8861<\/span>\uff08Epstein 2007\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u4eec\u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u53e3\u5934\u7985\u662f\uff1a\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6ca1\u6709\u6f14\u5316\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u8bc1\u660e\u5b83\u3002\u201d\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u591a\u4e2a\u5e73\u8861\u70b9\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u6709\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u54ea\u4e2a\u5e73\u8861\u70b9\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u72b6\u6001\u3001\u4e2a\u4f53\u5982\u4f55\u5b66\u4e60<\/span>\uff08Golman & Page 2009\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u76f8\u4e92\u8fde\u63a5\u7684<\/span>\uff08Jackson 2010\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u5bf9\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d1e\u5bdf\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u5b9e\u8df5\u6709\u5173\u3002\u4f8b\u5982Salganik\u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082006\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u97f3\u4e50\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u4e0b\u8f7d\u97f3\u4e50\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u4e0d\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e0b\u8f7d\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u97f3\u4e50\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e0b\u8f7d\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u97f3\u4e50\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0b\u8f7d\u4e86\u548c\u522b\u4eba\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u97f3\u4e50\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u3002\u800c\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u5219\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u5c3e\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u8fd8\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\uff08Page 2006\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u51fa\u4e8e\u89c4\u8303\u6027\u548c\u6b63\u9762\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u76f8\u5f53\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u5728\u97f3\u4e50\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0b\u8f7d\u91cf\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6b4c\u66f2\u53ef\u80fd\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u8fd0\u6c14\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u6280\u5de7\u3002\u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0c\u4e00\u7bc7\u88ab\u5f15\u7528500\u6b21\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u6210\u529f\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u6216\u8be5\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d28\u91cf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9500\u552e\u4e5f\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u53ef\u80fd\u57fa\u4e8e\u522b\u4eba\u7684\u9009\u62e9<\/span>\uff08Denrell & Liu 2012\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u5bf9\u786e\u5b9a\u5206\u6790\u540c\u6837\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5076\u7136\u6027\u7ed9\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u5bf9\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u6570\u636e\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5ffd\u89c6\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u53ea\u8003\u8651\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u63a8\u8bba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6b4c\u66f2\u548c\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6b4c\u66f2\u548c\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u4e0b\u8f7d\u91cf\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7279\u5f02\u6027\u7684\u3002\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u8feb\u4f7f\u4eba\u4eec\u53bb\u63a2\u7d22\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5076\u7136\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u7ed3\u679c\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bb8\u591a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u54cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u6765\u81ea\u4eba\u53e3\u5c42\u9762\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5a5a\u59fb\u914d\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u914d\u5bf9\u5e76\u4e0d\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u603b\u4f53\u4eba\u53e3\u5c42\u9762\u3002\u672a\u5339\u914d\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u603b\u4f53\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u5269\u4f59\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u914d\u5bf9\u73af\u5883<\/span>\uff08 Xie et al. 2015\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5b50\u7a7a\u95f4\u5efa\u8bbe\u548c\u7834\u574f\u4ea7\u751f<\/span>\uff08Holland 2014\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528 ABM \u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u91cd\u590d\u8fdb\u884c\u56da\u5f92\u56f0\u5883\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4f53\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u8bc6\u522b\u5176\u4ed6\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u884c\u4e3a\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5408\u4f5c\u5b50\u7a7a\u95f4<\/span>\uff08Axelrod 1997\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5b50\u7a7a\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u5f88\u4e45\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u627e\u51fa\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u7834\u574f\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u5b50\u7a7a\u95f4\u5e76\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u4e2a\u80cc\u53db\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u805a\u96c6\u662f\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u7c7b\u522b\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ecf\u5e38\u4ea7\u751f\u53cd\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u805a\u96c6\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u89e3\u5f00\u805a\u96c6\u7684\u5965\u79d8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u5982\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span>\uff08Wolfram 2002\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u4ea7\u751f\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u4ea7\u751f\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u5178\u578b\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5e03\u83b1\u6069\u00b7\u963f\u745f\u7684 El Farol \u9152\u5427\u95ee\u9898<\/span>\uff08Arthur 1994\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u5fc5\u987b\u51b3\u5b9a\u53c2\u52a0\u6bcf\u5468\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u8fd8\u662f\u5446\u5728\u5bb6\u91cc\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u90fd\u613f\u610f\u53c2\u52a0\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u6709\u592a\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u53c2\u52a0\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u4e0d\u518d\u613f\u610f\u53c2\u52a0\u3002\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u4e3b\u4f53\u5c06\u6839\u636e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u51fa\u5e2d\u4eba\u6570\uff0c\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u53c2\u52a0\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u800c\u6700\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u53c2\u52a0\u4eba\u6570\u662f\u6240\u6709\u6d3b\u52a8\u51fa\u5e2d\u4eba\u6570\u603b\u548c\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cbe\u5fc3\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3001\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u6784\u6210\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u800c\u6bcf\u5468\u51fa\u5e2d\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u662f\u56f4\u7ed5\u7740\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5fae\u89c2\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8131\u8282\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u5728\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u6770\u51fa\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u56e2\u961f\u7cbe\u5fc3\u5236\u5b9a\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684<\/span>\uff08LeBaron 2001\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e34\u754c\u503c\u6216\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7a81\u7136\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u73af\u5883\u6027\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u5f71\u54cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u5fae\u5c0f\u53d8\u5316\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u8d70\u5411\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u6216\u4e00\u7c7b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff09\uff08Lamberson & Page 2012\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5f53\u6c11\u4f17\u53d8\u5f97\u8db3\u591f\u6124\u6012\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u8d77\u4e49\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u73af\u5883\u6027\u7684\u63d0\u793a\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u63d0\u793a\u662f\u4f7f\u8d77\u4e49\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5728\u73af\u5883\u6027\u7684\u63d0\u793a\u51fa\u73b0\u540e\uff0c\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u3002\u800c\u628a\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e0d\u5f97\u8981\u9886\u7684<\/span>\uff08Omerod 2012, Watts 2011\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c5e\u6027\u2014\u2014\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3001\u5173\u8054\u6027\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u7387\u2014\u2014\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5e76\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u4efb\u610f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u3002\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u666e\u904d\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u786e\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u6700\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u70b9\u3002\u590d\u6742\u6027\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ecb\u4e8e\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u533a\u57df<\/span>\uff08Miller & Page 2007\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe3\uff1a\u94f6\u884c\u5012\u95ed\u6982\u7387\u968f\u7740\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u7a0b\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u53d8\u5316<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e0e\u6b64\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u6a21\u578b\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u5728\u56da\u5f92\u56f0\u5883\u6e38\u620f\u4e2d\u73a9\u56fa\u5b9a\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u5feb<\/span>\uff08\u590d\u5236\u5b50\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5f53\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3b\u4f53\u88ab\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u7ef4\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u65f6\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u5728\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u6216\u66f4\u591a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u4f1a\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff1b\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e2d\uff0c\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7684\u3002\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u4e0a\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u590d\u73b0<\/span>\uff08Kerr et al. 2002\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u53c8\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\u5730\u5e26\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8c03\u6574\u591a\u6837\u6027\u8868\u76d8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u90fd\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u589e\u52a0\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u6307\u7684\u662f\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u53d8\u5f97\u590d\u6742\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u90fd\u662f\u72ec\u4e00\u65e0\u4e8c\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5c06\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u5927\u6570\u6cd5\u5219\u903b\u8f91\u5c06\u9002\u7528\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5c06\u5f88\u96be\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u8868\u76d8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6539\u53d8\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4f53\u73b0<\/span>\uff08Durlauf & Ioannides 2010\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u7ec4\u6392\u5217\u5728\u957f\u65b9\u5f62\u7f51\u683c\u4e0a\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u4e24\u4e2a\u884c\u52a8\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5411\u4e0a\uff08+1\uff09\u548c\u5411\u4e0b\uff08-1\uff09\u3002\u5728\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u4ee3\u8868\u9009\u62e9\u662f\u5426\u91c7\u53d6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u5b66\u6821\u52aa\u529b\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u5438\u6bd2\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u542f\u52a8\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u90fd\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u521d\u59cb\u884c\u52a8\u5f00\u59cb\u2014\u2014\u5411\u4e0a\u6216\u5411\u4e0b\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u76f8\u540c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u90bb\u5c45\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u8005\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u5317\u3001\u5357\u3001\u4e1c\u3001\u897f\u56db\u4e2a\u90bb\u5c45<\/span>\uff08\u4f0a\u8f9b\u6a21\u578b\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u6574\u4e2a\u7f51\u683c<\/span>\uff08\u5c45\u91cc-\u9b4f\u65af\u6a21\u578b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u4e3b\u4f53\u6539\u53d8\u5176\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u884c\u4e3a\u89c4\u5219\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u6709\uff08S\uff09\u6982\u7387<\/span>\uff08\u9762\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u538b\u529b\uff09<\/span>\u9009\u62e9\u4e0e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u90bb\u5c45\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u6709\u6982\u7387\uff081-s\uff09\uff0c\u4e3b\u4f53\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u5982\u679c s \u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c06\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u9009\u62e9\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u534a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u5411\u4e0b\u3002\u968f\u7740\u793e\u4f1a\u538b\u529b\uff08s\uff09\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u63d0\u793a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u4e3b\u4f53\u9009\u62e9\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u4e3b\u4f53\u9009\u62e9\u5411\u4e0b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e34\u754c\u503c\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u52a8\u529b\u548c\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u518d\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\u503c\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002\u4f4e\u793e\u4f1a\u538b\u529b\u5bfc\u81f4\u6ca1\u6709\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u6bcf\u4e2a\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u76f8\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u9ad8\u793e\u4f1a\u538b\u529b\u5bfc\u81f4\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u3002\u4ecb\u4e8e\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u662f\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u8003\u8651\u6539\u53d8\u9002\u5e94\u6216\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e3b\u4f53\u9075\u5faa\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e00\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u590d\u6742\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Wolfram 2002\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u9488\u5bf9\u7cbe\u5fc3\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u96c6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u8f6c\u76d8\u88ab\u8bbe\u7f6e\u5f97\u65e0\u9650\u9ad8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u662f\u5047\u5b9a\u4e3b\u4f53\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u6027\u5730\u9884\u671f\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e3b\u4f53\u5c06\u603b\u662f\u91c7\u53d6\u6700\u4f73\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u5c06\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u5047\u8bbe\u7406\u6027\u9884\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u5747\u8861\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\uff0c\u5f53\u4e3b\u4f53\u4ee5\u66f4\u9002\u5ea6\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u9002\u5e94\u548c\u5b66\u4e60\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u603b\u4f53\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u7136\u540e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5b66\u4e60\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u5f0f\u5e76\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u805a\u96c6\uff1a\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u6d8c\u73b0<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u7684\u805a\u96c6\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u6216\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u529f\u80fd\u548c\u7279\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u6d8c\u73b0\u3002\u5927\u8111\u4e2d\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff09<\/span>\u6c34\u7684\u6e7f\u5ea6\uff0c\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u7531\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u6765\u7ef4\u6301\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c34\u5206\u5b50\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6e7f\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6d8c\u73b0\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\u3002\u5d4c\u5165DNA\u548c\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u7ed3\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u5206\u5316\u7684\u7ec6\u80de\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ec6\u80de\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u5f62\u6210\u5668\u5b98\u548c\u5668\u5b98\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5c42\u6b21\u90fd\u6709\u5728\u5176\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u5c42\u6b21\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u4e5f\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4eba\u3001\u7fa4\u4f53\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u3002\u6bcf\u79cd\u805a\u805a\u96c6\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u90fd\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u80fd\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u8bb2\u5bf9\u6d8c\u73b0\u548c\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u533a\u5206\u3002\u524d\u8005\u662f\u6307\u5c5e\u6027\u548c\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u8005\u662f\u6307\u6a21\u5f0f\u6216\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u9e1f\u7c7b\u7684\u6210\u7fa4\u7ed3\u961f\uff0c\u79cd\u65cf\u7684\u9694\u79bb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u89c2\u4f17\u5e2d\u4e0a\u4e2a\u4eba\u6709\u8282\u594f\u7684\u9f13\u638c\u90fd\u662f\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u610f\u8bc6\u3001\u6587\u5316\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u8ba4\u77e5\u662f\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u5728\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u529f\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728<\/span>\uff08Hutchins 1996\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u5fae\u89c2\u89c4\u5219<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u5bf9\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u8bc4\u4f30\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u5c24\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4ece Schelling<\/span>\uff081971\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u9694\u79bb\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0e\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u504f\u597d\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0cSchelling<\/span>\uff081971\uff09<\/span>\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u540c\u8d28\u7684\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u9608\u503c\u7684\u642c\u5bb6\u884c\u4e3a\u89c4\u5219\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u90bb\u5c45\u4e2d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u540c\u4e00\u79cd\u65cf\u7fa4\u4f53\u6216\u6536\u5165\u9636\u5c42\u7684\u4eba\u5c11\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u642c\u8fc1\u3002\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a<\/span>\uff08\u76f8\u5bf9\uff09<\/span>\u5bbd\u5bb9\u7684\u9608\u503c\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e5f\u4f1a\u81ea\u6211\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6210\u9694\u79bb\u7684\u793e\u533a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8fd9\u91cc\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fae\u89c2\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8131\u8282\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u5ea6\u975e\u5199\u5b9e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u8c22\u6797\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u540c\u8d28\u7684\u9608\u503c\u89c4\u5219\u548c\u4e24\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u4ee5\u540c\u7b49\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4ed6\u6ca1\u6709\u52aa\u529b\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u6821\u51c6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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Bruch & Mare<\/span>\uff082006\uff09<\/span>\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5408\u7406\u7684\u5e26\u6709\u6982\u7387\u6210\u5206\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u89c4\u5219<\/span>\uff08\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u6548\u7528\u6a21\u578b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u5c06\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u5e95\u7279\u5f8b\u5730\u533a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u504f\u597d\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6821\u51c6\u3002Bruch & Mare \u7684\u539f\u59cb\u5206\u6790\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u9694\u79bb\u73b0\u8c61\u8fdc\u6bd4 Schelling \u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8981\u5c11\u3002Bruch & Mare \u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53d7\u5230\u4e86 van de Rijt \u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082009\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f16\u7801\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u5728\u6709\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u89c4\u5219\u4e0b\u9694\u79bb\u66f4\u52a0\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u660e\u5982\u679c\u968f\u673a\u6210\u5206\u8db3\u591f\u5927\uff0c\u9694\u79bb\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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Bruch & Mare<\/span>\uff082012\uff09<\/span>\u968f\u540e\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u9694\u79bb\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5982\u4f55\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7ebf\u6027\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u659c\u7387\u548c\u8bef\u5dee\u9879\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u76f8\u5173\uff0cXie & Zhou<\/span>\uff082012\uff09<\/span>\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u9694\u79bb\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u88ab\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u524a\u5f31\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u66f4\u5bbd\u5bb9\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c06\u79cd\u65cf\u6df7\u6742\u7684\u793e\u533a\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6211\u505a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b80\u77ed\u800c\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u56de\u987e\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\uff1a\u628a\u8c22\u6797\u6a21\u578b\u53ca\u5176\u524d\u8eab\u4f5c\u4e3a\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u9608\u503c\u89c4\u5219\u6539\u4e3a\u7ebf\u6027\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6216\u964d\u4f4e\u968f\u673a\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u4e3b\u4f53\u5f02\u8d28\u5316\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c06\u4ea7\u751f\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u9694\u79bb<\/span>\uff08Bruch 2014\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u642c\u8fc1\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e24\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5b83\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u65e7\u793e\u533a\u4e2d\u4e0e\u642c\u8fc1\u8005\u76f8\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u60f3\u8981\u642c\u8fc1\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5b83\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u65b0\u793e\u533a\u4e2d\u4e0e\u642c\u8fc1\u8005\u76f8\u53cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u60f3\u8981\u642c\u8fc1\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u653e\u5927\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u653e\u5927\u4f5c\u7528\u8868\u73b0\u5728\u9694\u79bb\u4e0a\uff0c\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u504f\u597d\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u6240\u80fd\u8868\u660e\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6d8c\u73b0 V.S. \u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u79cd\u65cf\u9694\u79bb\u662f\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u5982\u610f\u8bc6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u529f\u80fd\u662f\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u800c\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u6d8c\u73b0\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u533a\u522b\u6bd4\u4eba\u4eec\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u8981\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u529f\u80fd\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u5c5e\u6027<\/span>\uff08Watts 2004\uff09<\/span>\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8def\u5f84\u957f\u5ea6\u5f88\u4f4e\uff0c\u4fd7\u79f0\u516d\u5ea6\u5206\u9694\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5efa\u7acb\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5728\u4e94\u4e2a\u6b65\u9aa4\u5185\u8fde\u63a5\u5230\u97f3\u4e50\u5bb6\u6e29\u987f-\u9a6c\u8428\u5229\u65af<\/span>\uff08Wynton Marsalis\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5141\u8bb8\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u6709\u610f\u4e3a\u4e4b\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u5728\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u91cd\u70b9\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e24\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\uff1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u548c\u7fa4\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5927\u8111\u3001\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8eab\u4f53\u3001\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Bednar 2008\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u90fd\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u663e\u8457\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u52a8\u673a\u4e0d\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e3a\u667a\u80fd\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u9664\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6709\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8005\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u90a3\u4e9b\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8005\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u80fd\u529b\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u9650\u3002[\u6ce83]\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u6ca1\u6709\u5efa\u9020\u84dd\u56fe\uff0c\u5927\u8111\u540c\u6837\u6ca1\u6709\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6ce83\uff1a\u5173\u4e8e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u6587\u732e\u7740\u91cd\u4e8e\u521b\u5efa\u5177\u6709\u6709\u6548\u4e14\u5747\u8861\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002(Page 2012, Reiter 1977).<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5404\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u3002\u4e3b\u4f53\u62e5\u6709\u6216\u6f14\u5316\u51fa\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5bf9\u5185\u90e8\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u523a\u6fc0\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u80fd\u529b<\/span>\uff08Jen 2005\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u4fdd\u6301\u6d3b\u529b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4fdd\u6301\u6d3b\u529b\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u5177\u5907\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u5177\u5907\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3002\u884c\u4e3a\u53ef\u5851\u6027\u5728\u96c6\u5408\u4f53\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u547c\u5e94\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u4f53\u7684\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u95f4\u79fb\u52a8<\/span>\uff08DeLanda 2006\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u96c6\u5408\u4f53\u53ef\u4ee5\u6267\u884c\u5404\u79cd\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u3002\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u96c6\u5408\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u56e0\u9002\u5e94\u800c\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5b83\u4e0d\u5e94\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c06\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u4e0e\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u533a\u5206\u5f00\u6765\u3002\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u8fd4\u56de\u5230\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u70b9\u3002\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u9002\u5e94\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u7684\u53cd\u9762\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08\u89c1Centeno et al. 2015\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5927\u578b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u3002\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ecf\u5e38\u4ea7\u751f\u5927\u91cf\u5c0f\u89c4\u6a21\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5076\u5c14\u4e5f\u6709\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u7f3a\u4e4f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u592e\u8ba1\u5212\u8005\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5e76\u4e0d\u4fdd\u8bc1\u662f\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u7fa4\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u3002\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u7fa4\u4f53\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u96c6\u5408\u4f53\uff0c\u800c\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u533a\u522b\u4e8e\u5e76\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u5c5e\u6027<\/span>\uff08Sawyer 2005\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u5927\u8111\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u6210\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc7\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u795e\u7ecf\u5143\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u3002Hutchins<\/span>\uff081996\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5982\u4f55\u5f15\u5bfc\u4e00\u8258\u8239\u5165\u6e2f\u7684\u8bf4\u660e\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u80fd\u529b\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7531\u4e2a\u4eba\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u4ea4\u6d41\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u3002\u7ba1\u7406\u4efb\u4f55\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6216\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u540c\u6837\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u7ba1\u7406\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u6216\u5931\u8d25\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u52a8\u805a\u96c6\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d8c\u73b0\u5c5e\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6d8c\u73b0\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u7684\u591a\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u805a\u96c6\u4e2d\u3002\u7235\u58eb\u4e50\u4e09\u91cd\u594f\u7684\u5353\u8d8a\u8868\u6f14\u3001\u8fd0\u52a8\u961f\u7684\u7cbe\u5f69\u6f14\u51fa\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ee4\u4eba\u5c4f\u606f\u7684\u838e\u58eb\u6bd4\u4e9a\u620f\u5267\u90fd\u662f\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u662f\u5404\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u548c\u6cbf\u7740\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8054\u7cfb\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4ea4\u6d41<\/span>\uff08Sawyer 2005\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u5b9e\u4f53\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5206\u6790\u65e2\u8981\u6ce8\u91cd\u63cf\u8ff0\u8fd9\u79cd\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff0c\u53c8\u8981\u8003\u8651\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6211\u9996\u5148\u8ba8\u8bba\u5206\u5e03\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8ba8\u8bba\u591a\u6837\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5373\u4f7f\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u90fd\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b66\u4f1a\u91c7\u53d6\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u591a\u6837\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u5c06\u662f\u5185\u751f\u7684\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ecf\u5e38\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u662f\u5230\u8fbe\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u8fdb\u884c\u89c4\u8303\u7684\u548c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u7ecf\u5e38\u6bd4\u8f83\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5747\u8861\u3002\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5206\u5e03\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u975e\u6b63\u6001\u7684<\/span>\uff08Weaver 1948\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u7406\u89e3\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u548c\u53d8\u5f02\u503c\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u5206\u6790\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u884c\u4e3a\u3001\u7ed3\u679c\u8fd8\u662f\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u957f\u5c3e\u7684\u3002\u4e0e\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5c0f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u5bf9\u957f\u5c3e\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5305\u62ec\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u548c\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u3002\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u4ea7\u751f\u957f\u5c3e\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u660e\u663e\u3002\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u4ea7\u751f\u957f\u5c3e\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5219\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u8bf7\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u957f\u5c3e\u662f\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6574\u4f53\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u8a00\u7684\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u51cf\u5c11\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u53d8\u5f02\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5c3e\u5df4\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u957f\u5ea6\u3002\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u6216\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u90fd\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u8005\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u65f6\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5927\u578b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u5f53\u540e\u8005\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u65f6\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5c0f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u5728\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u90fd\u662f<\/span>\uff08\u76f8\u5bf9\uff09<\/span>\u957f\u5c3e\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u4e8e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u800c\u957f\u5c3e\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u5219\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u56db\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u957f\u5c3e\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u662f\u4e58\u6cd5\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5982\u679c\u968f\u673a\u51b2\u51fb\u88ab\u76f8\u4e58\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u76f8\u52a0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5c06\u662f\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u590d\u5236\u8005\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u79cd\u7fa4\u4e2d\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u6570\u91cf\u4e0e\u8be5\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u5065\u5eb7\u5ea6\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u589e\u957f\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e58\u6cd5\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u5c3e\u3002[\u6ce84]<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6ce84\uff1a\u51e0\u4e4e\u5728\u6240\u6709\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u4e30\u5ea6\u90fd\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u957f\u5c3e\u5206\u5e03\u3002(Hubbell 2001).<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u6bd4\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u8bb8\u591a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u4e2a\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5373\u5e42\u5f8b\u3002[\u6ce85<\/span>]<\/span>\u5e42\u5f8b\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u6700\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a<\/span>\uff08Newman 2005\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6ce85\uff1a\u5728\u5e42\u5f8b\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u5c0f\u4e3ax\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u9891\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u5199\u6210x\u7684\u8d1f\u5e42\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u4f18\u5148\u8fde\u63a5\uff0c\u5b83\u6355\u6349\u5230\u4e86\u9a6c\u592a\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08Merton 1968\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u5bcc\u4eba\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5bcc\uff0c\u4f7f\u7a77\u4eba\u53d8\u5f97\u76f8\u5bf9\u66f4\u7a77\u3002\u5728\u4f18\u5148\u8fde\u63a5\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u4f9d\u6b21\u5230\u8fbe\u3002\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u540e\u6765\u8005\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u4ee5\u63a5\u8fd11\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\uff1b\u4ee5\u5269\u4f59\u7684\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u7279\u5b9a\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0e\u8be5\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u4eba\u53e3\u6210\u6b63\u6bd4<\/span>\uff08\u8d8a\u591a\u8d8a\u597d\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e42\u5f8b\u3002<\/span>[\u6ce86<\/span>]<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6ce86\uff1a\u56de\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\u5173\u4e8e\u97f3\u4e50\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u65e0\u6cd5\u975e\u5e38\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7c7b\u578b\u5728\u8be5\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u642c\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u57ce\u5e02\u6216\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0e\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6216\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u6210\u6b63\u6bd4\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u57ce\u5e02\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u89c4\u6a21\u5c06\u670d\u4ece\u5e42\u5f8b\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u4e4d\u4e00\u770b\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u662f\u5e42\u5f8b\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5b66\u672f\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u5f15\u7528\u6b21\u6570\u3001\u7f51\u7ad9\u94fe\u63a5\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u4e2d\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u548c\u56fe\u4e66\u9500\u552e\u90fd\u662f\u662f\u5982\u6b64<\/span>\uff08Bettencourt & West 2010, Newman 2003\uff09<\/span>[\u6ce87<\/span>]<\/span>\u3002\u57ce\u5e02\u3001\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u548c\u5f15\u6587\u90fd\u88ab\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u6db5\u76d6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u975e\u5927\u8c61\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6ce87\uff1a\u53c2\u89c1Shalizi\uff082013\uff09\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u62df\u5408\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u4ece\u5206\u7c7b\u548c\u8fde\u7eed\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u6765\u6355\u6349\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3002\u524d\u8005\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5305\u62ec\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9636\u5c42\u3001\u79cd\u65cf\u3001\u6c11\u65cf\u6216\u6027\u522b\u7684\u533a\u522b\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5305\u62ec\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08Xie & Zhou 2012\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u5e74\u9f84\u6216\u62b5\u5fa1\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u548c\u4eba\u53e3\u5b66\uff0c\u6bd4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u66f4\u5f3a\u8c03\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u6b23\u8d4f\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u4e9b\u6d1e\u89c1\uff0c\u5373\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u591a\u79cd\u529f\u80fd\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6b63\u5982\u591a\u6837\u6027\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u529f\u80fd\u4f5c\u7528\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u7ed3\u6784\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u6587\u732e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u5982\u4f55\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u83b7\u5f97\u6743\u529b\u3001\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u8d44\u672c<\/span>\uff08Burt 1992, 2005\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7ecf\u5e38\u5206\u6790\u6574\u4e2a\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span>\uff08Omerod 2012\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cGolub & Jackson<\/span>\uff082012\uff09<\/span>\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e00\u7bc7\u5f88\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0cCentola & Macy<\/span>\uff082007\uff09<\/span>\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u957f\u7ebd\u5e26\u5728\u76f4\u89c9\u4e0a\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f1a\u52a0\u901f\u521b\u65b0\u6269\u6563\uff0c\u5f53\u521b\u65b0\u9700\u8981\u5f3a\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0cLloyd-Smith\u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082005\uff09<\/span>\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8d85\u7ea7\u4f20\u64ad\u8005\u6216\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u4e00\u79cd\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u6bd4\u5047\u8bbe\u968f\u673a\u6df7\u5408\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8981\u5feb\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u591a\u6837\u6027\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\u4e5f\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u3002Padgett & Powell<\/span>\uff082012\uff09<\/span>\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u8be6\u7ec6\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u4e3b\u4f53\u5982\u4f55\u6784\u5efa\u5173\u7cfb\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5173\u7cfb\u5982\u4f55\u521b\u9020\u5229\u57fa\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5229\u57fa\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u53c8\u4e3a\u65b0\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u7b80\u5316\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6848\u4f8b\uff0cPadgett\u548cPowell\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4eba\u5982\u4f55\u521b\u9020\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u5982\u4f55\u521b\u9020\u4eba\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u591a\u6837\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u800c\u7ed3\u6784\u53ef\u4ee5\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5927\u6570\u636e\u7684\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u610f\u5473\u7740\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u6709\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u6570\u636e\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6570\u636e\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u8981\u6536\u96c6\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u5207\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u89c2\u5bdf\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u8fdb\u884c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u751a\u81f3\u6a21\u4eff\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/span>\uff08\u89c1Watts 2011\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u8bc4\u8bba\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e0e\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u89c2\u5bdf\u76f8\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u5927\u6570\u636e\u6b63\u65e5\u76ca\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u8bf8\u5982\u8d2d\u7269\u3001\u7ea6\u4f1a\u3001\u53d1\u8868\u610f\u89c1\u3001\u63a2\u7d22\u60f3\u6cd5\u548c\u4eab\u53d7\u4e50\u8da3\u7b49\u6d3b\u52a8\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e3b\u8981\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\u3002\u5927\u6570\u636e\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u73b0\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6d3b\u52a8\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u6355\u6349\u5230\u4ee5\u521b\u9020\u5927\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6240\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u5438\u6536\u5c06\u662f\u5bb9\u6613\u7684\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u65b0\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u5fc5\u987b\u7b26\u5408\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u8fd9\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u662f\u62df\u5408\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u628a\u8fd9\u770b\u6210\u662f\u5bf9\u805a\u96c6\u56fe\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u66f4\u4e3a\u6070\u5f53\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u9884\u6d4b\u4e5f\u5fc5\u987b\u4e0e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5fc5\u987b\u5f97\u5230\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u6570\u636e\u62d2\u7edd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c(a)\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u5047\u8bbe\u5fc5\u987b\u7b26\u5408\u5fae\u89c2\u6570\u636e\uff0c(b)\u5fae\u89c2\u884c\u4e3a\u5fc5\u987b\u4ea7\u751f\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c5e\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u8fd9\u91cc\u4eba\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca(c)\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c5e\u6027\u5fc5\u987b\u7b26\u5408\u5b8f\u89c2\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u9ad8\u96be\u5ea6\u7684\u969c\u788d\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u6210\u529f\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u4e09\u9879\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6<\/span>\uff08\u89c1Bruch & Mare 2006, 2012; Centola & Macy 2007\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6240\u6599\u5730\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u8be5\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u8ba4\u53ef\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u8fd8\u8fdc\u8fdc\u79f0\u4e0d\u4e0a\u5b8c\u6574\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u4e14\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6709\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u89c1\u89e3\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u6765\u81ea\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u4ece\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5230\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u6765\u81ea\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u751f\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5<\/span>\uff08May\u7b49\u4eba\uff0c2008\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u4e0d\u5e38\u8d70\u7684\u8def\u3002\u4f46\u5e94\u8be5\u6709\u4eba\u6765\u8d70\u8fd9\u6761\u8def\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u53c2\u4e0e\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u66f4\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u6269\u5927\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u770b\u5f85\u793e\u4f1a\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u955c\u5934\uff0c\u5e76\u6539\u5584\u5b66\u79d1\u3002\u603b\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e94\u8be5\u503e\u542c\uff0c\u201c\u623f\u95f4\u91cc\u7684\u5927\u8c61\u201d<\/span>\uff08\u6c89\u9ed8\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\uff09<\/span>\u6709\u8bdd\u8981\u8bf4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u3010<\/span>\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\u3011\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u7531\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u7f57\u5bb6\u5fb7\u6559\u6388\u9886\u8854\uff0c\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u5339\u5179\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u591a\u4f4d\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u8054\u5408\u53d1\u8d77\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e8612\u5468\u7684\u5206\u4eab\u548c\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u4e00\u6b21\u95ed\u95e8\u8336\u8bdd\u4f1a\uff0c\u4e24\u6b21\u5706\u684c\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u672c\u5b63\u8bfb\u4e66\u805a\u7126\u8ba8\u8bbaGraph\u3001Embedding\u3001NLP\u3001Modeling\u3001Data collection\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u5176\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5e76\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u8ba8\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u79fb\u52a8\u3001\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7b49\u8bfe\u9898\u3002\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u8be6\u60c5\u89c1\u6587\u672b\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u4ece\u4e8b\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u6216\u5bf9\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u53c2\u4e0e\u5b66\u4e60\u3002<\/span>
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