{"id":39289,"date":"2022-12-19T20:31:09","date_gmt":"2022-12-19T12:31:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=39289"},"modified":"2022-12-19T20:31:09","modified_gmt":"2022-12-19T12:31:09","slug":"%e7%a4%be%e4%ba%a4%e5%aa%92%e4%bd%93%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e8%ba%ab%e4%bb%bd%e6%95%88%e5%ba%94%ef%bc%9a%e5%86%b3%e5%ae%9a%e4%bd%a0%e7%82%b9%e8%b5%9e%e7%9a%84%e6%98%af%e5%86%85%e5%ae%b9%e8%bf%98%e6%98%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=39289","title":{"rendered":"\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\uff1a\u51b3\u5b9a\u4f60\u70b9\u8d5e\u7684\u662f\u5185\u5bb9\u8fd8\u662f\u4eba\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Sean J. Taylor, Lev Muchnik, Madhav Kumar, Sinan Aral<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5218\u57f9\u6e90\u3001\u5218\u5fd7\u822a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Identity effects in social media<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8fd1\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u6e90\u5934\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08source effects\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u8bf4\u670d\u548c\u6001\u5ea6\u6539\u53d8\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528[5,6,7]\u3002\u5bf9\u865a\u62df\u5de5\u4f5c\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4e3a\u5a92\u4ecb\u7684\u4ea4\u6d41\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea4\u6362\u4e2a\u4eba\u8eab\u4efd\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u56e2\u961f\u6574\u4f53\u6210\u679c\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u63d0\u5347[8,9]\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u4fe1\u606f\u4e3a\u4eba\u9645\u4fe1\u4efb[10,11]\u548c\u516c\u5171\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/span>\uff08\u5b83\u4eec\u5171\u540c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u534f\u8c03\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u540c\u884c\u53cd\u9988\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e5f\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u63d0\u9ad8\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ea4\u6d41\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4[12]\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u52a0\u5f3a\u5728\u7ebf\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u8054\u7cfb\u6765\u9f13\u52b1\u77e5\u8bc6\u8d21\u732e[13]\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u8bf4\u670d\u7684\u6587\u732e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u4fe1\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u4e0e\u89c2\u70b9\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u8868\u8fbe\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u63a5\u53d7\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\u88ab\u5f52\u7c7b\u4e3a\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u76f8\u5173\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u786e\u4fdd\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u548c\u6709\u5229\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u8bc4\u4ef7\uff0c\uff082\uff09\u5efa\u7acb\u548c\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\uff083\uff09\u51c6\u786e\u8bc4\u4f30\u5916\u90e8\u73b0\u5b9e[14,15,16]\u3002\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u81f3\u5c11\u4e24\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5b83\u4e3a\u5efa\u7acb\u548c\u7ef4\u6301\u5173\u7cfb\u4ee5\u53ca\u5224\u65ad\u4ed6\u4eba\u6240\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u548c\u6709\u6548\u6027\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/strong>\u8eab\u4efd\u4fe1\u606f\u4f7f\u4eba\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u884c\u4e3a\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8ddf\u968f\u4e92\u60e0\u548c\u5229\u4ed6\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u6821\u51c6\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u573a\u5408\u548c\u79c1\u4eba\u573a\u5408\u7684\u8bf4\u670d\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u8bf8\u5982\u5728\u7ebf\u8bba\u575b\u4e4b\u7c7b\u7684\u516c\u5171\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u53ef\u80fd\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5e0c\u671b\u63a5\u7eb3\u4ed6\u4eba[17,18]\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8bc6\u522b\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u60f3\u63a5\u7eb3\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e09\uff0c\u8bf4\u670d\u7684\u53cc\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u7279\u522b\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u6240\u6fc0\u52b1\u6216\u5206\u5fc3\u65f6\uff1b\u6001\u5ea6\u5224\u65ad\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bb9\u6613\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\uff0c\u5982\u8bf4\u670d\u8005\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5904\u7406\u7b56\u7565\u6216\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30[16,19]\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u540e\u6587\u5c06\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u80fd\u591f\u76f4\u63a5\u68c0\u9a8c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bf4\u670d\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u8ba4\u540c\u7406\u8bba[20,21]\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u8ba4\u540c\u4f1a\u589e\u5f3a\u4e3b\u89c2\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5171\u540c\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5916\u90e8\u73b0\u5b9e\u548c\u5ba2\u89c2\u771f\u7406\u3002\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7fa4\u4f53\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u5bf9\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u7c7b\u548c\u8bc6\u522b\u6765\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u4e0e\u5728\u7ebf\u793e\u533a\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u884c\u4e3a\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u9057\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u540c\u5316\u6027\u3001\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u548c\u6392\u65a5\u6027\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u6bd4\u7686\u662f\uff0c\u4f46\u5173\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u7ebf\u7d22\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u6548\u5e94\u8fd9\u4e00\u72ed\u5c0f\u5b50\u96c6\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8bc1\u636e\u5374\u5f88\u5c11[22]\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u5728\u7ebf\u5b9e\u5730\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff08Online field experiments\uff09<\/strong>\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u793e\u4f1a\u7ebf\u7d22\u548c\u7279\u5f81\u5bf9\u75c5\u6bd2\u5f0f\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u8bc4\u7ea7\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u4f5c\u7528[4,23,24]\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u53d1\u9001\u8005\u548c\u63a5\u53d7\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u7279\u5f81\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u7f13\u548c\u540c\u4faa\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08peer effect\uff09<\/span>[25,26]\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u5728\u8bf8\u5982\u6148\u5584\u6350\u8d60[27]\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u5171\u4eab[28]\u548c\u4f18\u8d28\u670d\u52a1\u91c7\u7528[29]\u7b49\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u70b9\u51fb\u7387\u548c\u8f6c\u6362\u7387\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u63a8\u5e7f\u5b66\u672f\u8bba\u6587\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u5f15\u7528\u7387[30]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6587\u732e\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u7ebf\u7d22\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u5bf9\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u9488\u5bf9\u5728\u7ebf\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5f15\u6587[31,32]\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6587\u732e\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u89e3\u51b3\u9650\u5236\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u6311\u6218<\/strong>\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7528\u89c2\u5bdf\u6570\u636e\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5bf9\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5185\u5bb9\u521b\u9020\u548c\u89c2\u70b9\u5f62\u6210\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5185\u751f\u7684[33,34,35]\u3002\u5e73\u53f0\u901a\u8fc7\u9009\u62e9\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53c2\u4e0e\u8be5\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u7528\u6237\uff0c\u5411\u540c\u884c<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7231\u597d\u8005\uff09<\/span>\u5c55\u793a\u793e\u4ea4\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u5185\u5bb9\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7279\u5f81\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u540c\u65f6\u5f71\u54cd\u8eab\u4efd\u548c\u5185\u5bb9\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u548c\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u96be\u786e\u5b9a\u662f\u58f0\u8a89\u9a71\u52a8\u7740\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\u9a71\u52a8\u7740\u58f0\u8a89\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u5185\u5bb9\u8d28\u91cf\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e24\u8005<\/strong>\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u4e2a\u4eba\u6548\u5e94\u5dee\u5f02\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6548\u5e94\u662f\u5426\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u8fd9\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u76ee\u524d\u5173\u6ce8\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u3002\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e86\u6539\u53d8\u6c42\u804c\u8005[36]\u6216 Airbnb \u5ba2\u4eba[37]\u7684\u79cd\u65cf\u8eab\u4efd\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6b67\u89c6\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7a81\u51fa\u6027\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8003\u8651\u8fc7\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u533f\u540d\u6027\uff08\u6216\u8eab\u4efd\u5b58\u5728\uff09\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9\u7ebf\u4e0a\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u4f30\u8ba1\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5bf9\u89c2\u70b9\u548c\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u65b0\u95fb\u805a\u5408\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u7eb5\u5411\u7684\u5b9e\u5730\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e861200\u4e07\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u66dd\u5149\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u89c2\u4f17\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6bcf\u7bc7\u5185\u5bb9\u90fd\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u52305%\u7684\u201c\u533f\u540d\u201d\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u89c2\u4f17\u65e0\u6cd5\u770b\u5230\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u7684\u7528\u6237\u540d\uff0c\u6216\u800595%\u7684\u201c\u8eab\u4efd\u201d\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u7f51\u7ad9\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u89c2\u4f17\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u5e76\u70b9\u51fb\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5728\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e0a\u65b9\u7684\u7528\u6237\u540d\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bbe\u8ba1\u901a\u8fc7\u540c\u65f6\u6536\u96c6\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u5185\u5bb9\u4f5c\u8005\u8eab\u4efd\u5143\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7528\u6237\u548c\u4e0d\u53d7\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7528\u6237\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u5185\u5bb9\u751f\u4ea7\u548c\u8bc4\u4ef7\u7684\u5185\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u4e24\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e866,415\u540d\u89c2\u4f17\u5bf93,725\u540d\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684346,559\u6761\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u5728\u8eab\u4efd\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u67091190\u4e07\u6761\u8bc4\u8bba\u66dd\u5149\uff0c\u5728\u533f\u540d\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u6709632,000\u6761\u8bc4\u8bba\u66dd\u5149\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6bcf\u6761\u8bc4\u8bba\u6536\u5230\u4e8636\u6b21\u89c2\u4f17\u66dd\u5149\u30011.54\u6b21\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u548c0.40\u6b21\u53cd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5927\u7ea630%\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u81f3\u5c11\u6536\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u56de\u590d\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u6027\u3002\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u662f\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u7684\u56db\u500d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u5728\u6b64\u524d\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1[4,38]\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u6570\u636e\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u9700\u8981\u805a\u7c7b\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b0\u6211\u4eec\u89e3\u91ca\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u800c\u975e\u7b80\u5355\u4f30\u8ba1\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5927\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u5927\u81f4\u5141\u8bb8\u6211\u4eec\u68c0\u6d4b\u5230\u7ed3\u679c\u7387\u76f8\u5bf9\u53d8\u5316\u7ea61%\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5bf9\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u548c\u56de\u590d\u8bc4\u8bba\u6709\u7740\u6b63\u9762\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6700\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u5728\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u548c\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5185\u90e8\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u3002\u6b64\u524d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u4eba\u6216\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u566a\u97f3\u4f1a\u88ab\u62b5\u6d88\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e73\u5747\u6548\u679c\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6<\/strong>[39]\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u89c2\u4f17\u7ed9\u5176\u5185\u5bb9\u70b9\u8d5e\u548c\u56de\u590d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5927\u5927\u589e\u52a0<\/strong>\u3002\u800c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5219\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong>\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u53cd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\uff0c\u5e76\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u56de\u590d\u7387\u3002\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5e2e\u52a9\u7528\u6237\u50a8\u5b58\u4e86\u5185\u5bb9\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u51e0\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u201c<\/span>\uff08\u793e\u4f1a\uff09<\/span>\u8d44\u672c\u201d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u901a\u8fc7\u9891\u7e41\u548c<\/span>\uff08\u4e3b\u9898\uff09<\/span>\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u751f\u4ea7\u6240\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u6587\u5316\u8d44\u672c<\/span>\uff08cultural capital\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5bf9\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u548c\u56de\u590d\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u8c03\u8282\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u201c\u6587\u5316\u8d44\u672c\u201d\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u6982\u5ff5\u5316\u4e86\uff0c\u5e03\u8fea\u5384<\/span>\uff08Pierre Bourdieu\uff09<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6587\u5316\u8d44\u672c\u4ee3\u8868\u4e00\u79cd\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u5730\u4f4d\u6587\u5316\u4e2d\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u662f\u5ba2\u4f53\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u201c\u56fe\u7247\u3001\u4e66\u7c4d\u3001\u5b57\u5178\u3001\u5de5\u5177\u3001\u673a\u5668\u201d\u7b49\u6587\u5316\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5177\u8eab\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u5b66\u5386<\/span>\uff08\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u201c\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u201c\uff09<\/span>\u201d\u3002\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u65e0\u5f62\u6587\u5316\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0cThrosby\u5c06\u5176\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u4e00\u5957\u601d\u60f3\u3001\u5b9e\u8df5\u3001\u4fe1\u4ef0\u3001\u4f20\u7edf\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8bc6\u522b\u5e76\u5c06\u7279\u5b9a\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e0e\u8be5\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u4f20\u7edf\u53ca\u5176\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u5316\u7ed3\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u201d<\/span>\uff08\u89c1[41]\u7b2c7\u9875\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8bed\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6587\u5316\u8d44\u672c\u4f53\u73b0\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u5e16\u5b50\u548c\u8bc4\u8bba\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u793e\u533a\u8868\u8fbe\u5185\u5bb9\u3001\u60f3\u6cd5\u548c\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4e2d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9891\u7e41\u548c\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5e16\u5b50\u548c\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e3a\u793e\u533a\u8d21\u732e\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u65e0\u5f62\u6587\u5316\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ece\u8eab\u4efd\u66b4\u9732\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u9891\u7e41\u548c\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u5219\u53d7\u5230\u8eab\u4efd\u8bc6\u522b\u66b4\u9732\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u793e\u4f1a\u8d44\u672c<\/span>\uff08social capital\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u79ef\u7d2f\u201c\u4e0e\u62e5\u6709\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u8ba4\u8bc6\u548c\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u7f51\u7edc\u6709\u5173\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u201d<\/span>\uff08\u89c1[40]\u7b2c249\u9875\uff09<\/span>\u800c\u88ab\u5efa\u7acb\u548c\u88ab\u8861\u91cf\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u79ef\u6781\u5730\u8c03\u8282\u4e86\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5bf9\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u548c\u56de\u590d\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8bed\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u8d44\u672c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6295\u7968\u548c\u56de\u590d\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4e92\u60e0\u6027\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e92\u60e0\u6027\u662f\u5bf9\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4f53\u73b0\u548c\u627f\u8ba4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7531\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u8d44\u672c<\/strong>\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u534f\u8c03\u548c\u5408\u4f5c[42]\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5728\u667a\u529b\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u6216\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u79ef\u7d2f\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u624b\u6bb5[43]\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8eab\u4efd<\/strong>\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e2a\u4f53\u501f\u52a9\u5176\u7ec4\u7ec7\u534f\u8c03\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u4e3a\u667a\u529b\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u6216\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u4ea4\u6362\u5206\u914d\u4fe1\u7528\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5e94\u8be5\u80fd\u591f\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e92\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u66dd\u5149\u786e\u5b9e\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e92\u60e0\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u548c\u56de\u590d\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u5bcc\u8005\u6108\u5bcc\u201d\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u90a3\u6837[44,45]\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u5177\u6709\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u793e\u533a[46]\u4e2d\u5c55\u5f00\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u58f0\u8a89\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u79ef\u7d2f\u3002\u58f0\u8a89\u65b9\u4fbf\u5730\u50a8\u5b58\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u533a\u8fc7\u53bb\u5bf9\u793e\u533a\u6210\u5458\u5185\u5bb9\u751f\u4ea7\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u8ba4\u540c\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u58f0\u8a89\u4e0e\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4eba\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u968f\u7740\u793e\u533a\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6570\u548c\u8bc4\u7ea7\u79ef\u7d2f\u5728\u7ebf\u6570\u5b57\u58f0\u8a89\u6458\u8981\uff0c\u7528\u6237\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f9d\u9760\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u5904\u7406\u6765\u57fa\u4e8e\u5185\u5bb9\u5236\u4f5c\u8005\u5148\u524d\u58f0\u8a89\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u5185\u5bb9\u88ab\u66f4\u7ecf\u5e38\u70b9\u8d5e\u7684\u7528\u6237\uff0c\u5176\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5bf9\u540e\u7eed\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u548c\u56de\u590d\u6709\u79ef\u6781\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u5bcc\u8005\u6108\u5bcc\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u4f1a\u589e\u5f3a\u58f0\u8a89\uff0c\u800c\u58f0\u8a89\u4f1a\u589e\u5f3a\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u76f8\u5bf9\u5c40\u90e8\u7684\u5904\u7406\u53ea\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u7684\u957f\u671f\u58f0\u8a89\u79ef\u7d2f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u4e0b\u9762\u6f84\u6e05\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5c06\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u540e\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5373\u5c55\u793a\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u5982\u4f55\u968f\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u800c\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u4f30\u8ba1\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u2014\u2014\u4e86\u89e3\u54ea\u7c7b\u7528\u6237\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u6700\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff0c\u5bf9\u54ea\u4e9b\u89c2\u4f17\u6700\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u4e3a\u7406\u8bba\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u968f\u7740\u7406\u8bba\u52a8\u673a\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u7528\u6237\u5728\u6295\u7968\u6216\u56de\u590d\u524d\u6240\u82b1\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4f5c\u4e3a\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5904\u7406\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u4f1a\u8feb\u4f7f\u89c2\u4f17\u8fdb\u5165\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5904\u7406\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u7968\u548c\u56de\u590d\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u601d\u8003\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u89c2\u4f17\u7528\u6765\u5e2e\u52a9\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u6295\u7968\u548c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u968f\u7740\u8d28\u91cf\u671f\u671b\u548c\u5730\u4f4d\u4e0e\u8eab\u4efd\u7d27\u5bc6\u5730\u4ea4\u7ec7\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u4f1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u8c01\u5728\u5236\u4f5c\u6216\u5206\u4eab\u5185\u5bb9\u6765\u63a8\u52a8\u5bf9\u5728\u7ebf\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5360\u4e0e\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u3001\u58f0\u8a89\u548c\u4e92\u60e0\u6295\u7968\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6295\u7968\u53d8\u5316\u768428%\u523061%\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u72b6\u6001\u533a\u5206\u63d0\u4f9b\u811a\u624b\u67b6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5e73\u53f0\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8005\u548c\u5e7f\u544a\u5546\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u5176\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ee5\u638c\u63e1\u89c2\u70b9\u805a\u5408\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5982\u4f55\u53cd\u6620\u5185\u5bb9\u8d28\u91cf\u4e0e\u7528\u6237\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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2. \u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7f51\u7ad9\u7684\u5b9e\u5730\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5177\u6709\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u504f\u5dee\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u5355\u4f4d\u662f\u5bf9\u4e00\u6761\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u66dd\u5149\uff0c\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u3001\u53cd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\u6216\u56de\u590d\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u5bf9\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u548c\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u4e92\u60e0\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005-\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5bf9\uff09<\/span>\u5177\u6709\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u201c\u57fa\u7ebf\u6a21\u578b\u89c4\u8303\u201d<\/span>\uff08baseline model specification\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u548c\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5c42\u9762\u3002\u5728\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u201d<\/span>\uff08identity effect\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5b83\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5f53\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u66dd\u5149\u4e2d\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0e\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u671f\u671b\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5bf9\u89c2\u4f17\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u66f4\u5f3a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u6bcf\u6b21\u66dd\u5149\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4<\/span>\uff08pp\uff09<\/span>\u4e3a\u5355\u4f4d\u5c55\u793a\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u671f\u671b\u5728\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684100\u6b21\u66dd\u5149\u4e2d\u4e92\u52a8<\/span>\uff08\u6295\u7968\u3001\u56de\u590d\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8bc4\u8bba\u6536\u523036\u6b21\u66dd\u5149\uff0c1.54\u6b21\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\uff0c\u5e73\u57470.4\u6b21\u53cd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\uff0c0.34\u6b21\u56de\u590d\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u79cd\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7f29\u653e\u7684\u89c6\u91ce\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe0.500 pp\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u572836\u6b21\u66dd\u5149\u4e2d\u662f\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u8bc4\u8bba\u76840.18\u4e2a\u989d\u5916\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u6570\u589e\u52a012%\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u6570\u589e\u52a045%\u6216\u56de\u590d\u589e\u52a053%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6548\u5e94\u5728\u66dd\u5149\u4e2d\u7684\u76f8\u52a0\u653e\u5927\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\u65e0\u6cd5\u68c0\u6d4b\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u6301\u7eed\u5730\u5c06\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u672a\u6765\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u589e\u52a0[4]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5e73\u5747\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e26\u6709\u5bf9\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u548c\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u6709\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5927\u5927\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968<\/span>\uff08P=0.196 pp\uff0c95%\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4(CI)=(0.018,0.374), P=0.031\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5bf9\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u56de\u590d<\/span>\uff08P=0.066 pp, 95% CI=(0.041,0.091), P<0.001\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e0e\u533f\u540d\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u66dd\u5149\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5df2\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u66dd\u5149\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u548c\u56de\u590d\u5206\u522b\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u7ea65%\u548c7%\u3002\u5bf9\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u6b63\u9762\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u610f\u4e49<\/span>\uff08P=0.054 pp, 95% CI=(-0.013, 0.121), P=0.112\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u5229\u7528\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u7eb5\u5411\u6027\u8d28\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u8c03\u8282\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6d4f\u89c8-\u8bc4\u8bba\u6837\u672c\u5bf9\uff0c\u90fd\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u4e09\u79cd\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8bf4\u670d\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7406\u8bba\u4ee5\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u8d44\u672c\u548c\u6587\u5316\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u2014\u2014<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

(1) \u751f\u4ea7\u91cfProduction\uff1a\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5728\u89c2\u4f17\u63a5\u89e6\u5230\u67d0\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e4b\u524d\u7684L\u5929\u5185\u6240\u5199\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8eL=3\u5373\u524d\u4e09\u5929\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bc4\u8bba\u751f\u4ea7\u91cf\u901a\u5e38\u57280\u5230100\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u751f\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u8fbe200\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u957f\u5c3e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(2) \u58f0\u8a89\u91cfReputation\uff1a\u5728\u89c2\u4f17\u63a5\u89e6\u5230\u67d0\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e4b\u524d\u7684L\u5929\u5185\uff0c\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5728\u5176\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e0a\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u6570<\/span>\uff08\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u51cf\u53bb\u53cd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4ecb\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u7684\u8d1f\u503c<\/span>\uff08\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5199\u8fc7\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u4e8e10\u7684\u4e2d\u7b49\u7684\u6b63\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(3) \u4e92\u60e0\u6027Reciprocity\uff1a\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5728\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u63a5\u89e6\u5230\u67d0\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e4b\u524d\u7684L\u5929\u5185\uff0c\u5bf9\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u6240\u7ed9\u4e88\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u6570<\/span>\uff08\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u51cf\u53bb\u53cd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u5728[-1, 1]\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u6700\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u914d\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u88681\uff1a\u5404\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5728\u88681\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u62a5\u544a\u4e86\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u6b63\u5f0f\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e86\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u548c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u8c03\u8282\u5668\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8865\u5145\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u5728\u56fe1\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\u5206\u7ec4\u5e76\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ec4\u5185\u6548\u5e94\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u4ee5\u56fe\u5f62\u65b9\u5f0f\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u8c03\u8282\u5668\u548c\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u8054\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9\u53ef\u7531\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u4e24\u4e2a\u5c0f\u8282\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe1\uff1a\u8c03\u8282\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u503c\u4e0e\u8eab\u4efd\u5bf9\u4ea4\u4e92\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u8054\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a y \u523b\u5ea6\u90fd\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u70b9\u90fd\u662f\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5206\u7bb1\u503c\uff08binned value\uff09\uff0cy \u8f74\u8868\u793a\u8be5\u5206\u7bb1\u5185\u7684\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c\u3002\u5206\u7bb1\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6837\u672c\u5927\u5c0f\u5dee\u5f02\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u6700\u4f73\u62df\u5408\u7ebf\u7531\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5206\u7bb1\u6709\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u52a0\u6743\uff0c\u5927\u81f4\u4e0e\u8868 1 \u4e2d\u663e\u793a\u7684\u659c\u7387\u76f8\u540c\uff08\u4f46\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\uff09\u3002N =12,583,408 \u7528\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0\u4ea7\u91cf\u548c\u58f0\u8a89\u3002N =1,094,177 \u8868\u793a\u4e92\u60e0\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u4ea7\u91cf\u548c\u58f0\u8a89<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u5176\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u6295\u7968\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5728\u6b63\u5411\u8fd8\u662f\u8d1f\u5411\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u751f\u4ea7\u91cf\u6bcf\u589e\u52a01%\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u589e\u52a00.127%<\/span>\uff0895% CI=(0.047, 0.207), P<0.001\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\u589e\u52a00.064%<\/span>\uff0895% CI=(-0.005, 0.133), P=0.067\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e0e\u5c0f\u4f46\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6536\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6295\u7968\u3002\u56de\u590d\u4e5f\u67090.019%<\/span>\uff0895% CI=(-0.041, 0.003), P=0.085\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u56fe1\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u79bb\u7fa4\u503c\u9a71\u52a8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u58f0\u8a89\u662f\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u8c03\u8282\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u58f0\u8a89\u6307\u6807\u4e0e\u8f83\u9ad8\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u67090.163%<\/span>\uff0895% CI=(0.061, 0.265), P < 0.001\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u4e0e\u8f83\u4f4e\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u6709-0.199%<\/span>\uff0895% CI=(-0.332, -0.066), P < 0.001\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u5728\u7edd\u5bf9\u91cf\u7ea7\u4e0a\u662f\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5177\u6709+1\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u7684\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u6570\u589e\u52a0\u76840.163\/(0.163+0.424)=28%\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u6570\u51cf\u5c11\u76840.199\/(0.199 + 0.129)=61%\u3002\u56fe1\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u6b63\u9762\u548c\u8d1f\u9762\u58f0\u8a89\u5206\u6570\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8f7b\u5fae\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u660e\u58f0\u8a89\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u503c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u66f4\u5f3a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56de\u590d\uff0c\u58f0\u8a89\u548c\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u65e2\u4e0d\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u8c03\u7684\u3002\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u4f46\u56fe1\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\u548c\u9ad8\u7684\u58f0\u8a89\u6d4b\u91cf\uff0c\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e92\u60e0\u6027<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e92\u60e0\u6027\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u5f88\u7a00\u5c11\uff0c\u53ea\u67098%\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005-\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u5bf9\u5728\u4e4b\u524d\u7684L=3\u5929\u5185\u6709\u4e92\u60e0\u7684\u6295\u7968\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u6837\u672c\u8981\u5c0f\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u4e92\u60e0\u6295\u7968\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5929\u91cc\u5bf9\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u7684\u6240\u6709\u8bc4\u8bba\u90fd\u6295\u4e86\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u989d\u5916\u76842.495%<\/span>\uff0895% CI=[0.68, 4.31], P = 0.007\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5982\u679c\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u6295\u4e86\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u5c31\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c112.495%\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u5bf9\u53cd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4e92\u60e0\u63aa\u65bd\u5448\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u6700\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u4e92\u60e0\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\u7684-1.183%<\/span>\uff0895% CI = [-1.904, -0.462], P < 0.001\uff09<\/span>\u6548\u5e94\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u56fe1\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ec6\u5fae\u7684\u5dee\u522b\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8d1f\u9762\u7684\u4e92\u60e0\u5173\u7cfb\uff08<\/span>\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u7ecf\u5e38\u7ed9\u89c2\u4f17\u6295\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\uff09<\/span>\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u6700\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u4e00\u5bf9\u5173\u7cfb\u5728\u8eab\u4efd\u4fe1\u606f\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\u4e2d\u589e\u52a0\u4e8680%\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7531\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u89c4\u8303\uff0c\u8be5\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u6765\u81ea\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7528\u6237\u5bf9\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u7eb5\u5411\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5176\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5f00\u542f\u6216\u5173\u95ed\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u7528\u6237\u4e4b\u95f4\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5728\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u56fe\u5f62\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e92\u60e0\u548c\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u5bf9\u56de\u590d\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5177\u6709\u5173\u8054\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6295\u7968\u524d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5bf9\u4e8e5.3%\u7684\u4ee5\u6295\u7968\u4e3a\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u66dd\u5149\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u6295\u7968\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u2014\u2014\u7528\u6237\u82b1\u4e86\u591a\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u9605\u8bfb\u8bc4\u8bba\u5e76\u5bf9\u5176\u6295\u7968\u3002\u56fe2a\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u6295\u7968\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u622a\u65ad\u4e3a10\u5206\u949f\u3002\u5728\u533f\u540d\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0e\u786e\u5b9a\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u66dd\u5149\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u57281-10\u79d2\u5185\u7684\u6295\u7968\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\u8f83\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe2\uff1a\u6295\u7968\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u548c\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u3002a\uff0c\u4ee5\u6295\u7968\u53d1\u751f\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u6295\u7968\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6838\u5bc6\u5ea6\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u3002b\uff0c\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u6d4b\u91cf\u8eab\u4efd\u4e8c\u5143\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6295\u7968\u662f\u5426\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u9608\u503c\u5185\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u5f53\u8eab\u4efd\u4fe1\u606f\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\uff0c\u89c2\u4f17\u57285\u79d2\u5185\u6295\u7968\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u589e\u52a00.1%\uff0c\u57287\u79d2\u5185\u6295\u7968\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u8fd10.2%\uff08\u7edd\u5bf9\u503c\uff09\u3002\u8bef\u5dee\u6761\u4ee3\u886895%\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4CI\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\u805a\u96c6\u5728\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u5c42\u9762\u3002N=672,464.<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u62df\u5408\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u7ebf\u6027\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u8eab\u4efd\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\u662f\u5426\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u9608\u503c\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6761\u4ef6\u662f\u6295\u7968\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u7528\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u6295\u7968\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u5c42\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u5206\u7ec4\u3002\u56fe2b\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9S\u79d2\u5185\uff08S=1, 2,\u2026\u2026,15\uff09\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u5bf9\u8bc4\u8bba\u6295\u7968\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9608\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u6548\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\u662f\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u2014\u2014\u5f53\u8eab\u4efd\u4fe1\u606f\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\uff0c\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u57285\u79d2\u5185\u6295\u7968\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u589e\u52a00.1%\uff0c\u57287\u79d2\u5185\u6295\u7968\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u8fd10.2%\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u89c2\u4f17\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u3002\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u6295\u7968\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u6548\u5e94\u5b8c\u5168\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u4ee5\u8bc4\u8bba\u83b7\u5f97\u6295\u7968\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u8bc4\u8bba\u83b7\u5f97\u6295\u7968\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u672a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bc1\u636e\u4e0e\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5141\u8bb8\u89c2\u4f17\u5728\u6295\u7968\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u5185\u5bb9\u8fdb\u884c\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u5904\u7406\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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3. \u5e73\u53f0\u542f\u793a <\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5bcc\u8005\u6108\u5bcc\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u4ea7\u91cf\u548c\u58f0\u8a89\u201d\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005<\/span>\uff08\u90a3\u4e9b\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u4ea7\u91cf\u548c\u9ad8\u58f0\u8a89\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\uff09<\/span>\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u548c\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u58f0\u8a89\u91cf\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u66dd\u5149\u7684\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u6570\u90fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5176\u8bc4\u8bba\u5f97\u5206\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u989d\u5916\u7684\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u6570\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd[4]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6548\u5e94\u7ed3\u679c\u53ea\u6355\u6349\u5230\u4e86\u6bcf\u6b21\u66dd\u5149\u7684\u6b63\u5411\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5728\u5b58\u5728\u81ea\u6211\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6301\u7eed\u6536\u5230\u6bd4\u5176\u6f5c\u5728\u8d28\u91cf\u66f4\u597d\u6216\u66f4\u5dee\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u5927\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u89c2\u4f17\u4e0d\u53d7\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u6839\u636e\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u6765\u8bc4\u5206[48]\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u4f1a\u4ece\u58f0\u8a89\u8c03\u8282\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4ece\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u8f83\u9ad8\u5206\u6570\u4e2d\u653e\u5927\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u504f\u5dee[4]\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8bed\u5883\u4e2d\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u5185\u5bb9\u8fdb\u884c\u6392\u540d\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u8bc4\u8bba\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u6392\u540d\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u88ab\u6295\u7968\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u66dd\u5149\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6295\u7968[49]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u201c\u8d28\u91cf\u201d\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u5728\u533f\u540d\u66dd\u5149\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u7968\u6570\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5bcc\u8005\u6108\u5bcc\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\uff08\u572895%\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u4e0b\uff09<\/span>\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u7684\u5185\u5728\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u7968\u6570\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5747\u8861\u3002\u8865\u5145\u7ae0\u8282A.8\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d149\u4e2a\u6700\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u81f3\u5c11\u670916,210\u6b21\u66dd\u5149\uff0c\u5c31\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u662f\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u8db3\u4ee5\u68c0\u6d4b\u51fa\u57282%\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0b\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\u67091%\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5229\u75285%\u7684\u533f\u540d\u6837\u672c\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5185\u5728\u201c\u8d28\u91cf\u201d\uff0c\u5229\u752895%\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u6837\u672c\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u5728\u7f51\u7ad9\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u5747\u8861\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0149\u4e2a\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u4e2d\u768428\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8eab\u4efd\u5bf9\u8d5e\u6210\u6295\u7968\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fbe\u52305%\u7684\u663e\u8457\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5927\u5927\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5076\u7136\u9884\u671f<\/span>\uff08P=0.0006\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u52a0\u5165\u8fd9\u4e2a\u793e\u533a\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5e73\u53f0\u662f\u5047\u540d\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u4e92\u60e0\u6295\u7968\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u58f0\u8a89\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4f30\u8ba1\u53ea\u6709\u5927\u7ea68-13%\u7684\u66dd\u5149\u662f\u5728\u6709\u4e92\u60e0\u6295\u7968\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u8f83\u957f<\/span>\uff0822\u4e2a\u6708\uff09<\/span>\uff0c \u8868\u660e\u5bf9\u4e8e\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u5747\u8861\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7531\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u53ea\u67095%\u7684\u533f\u540d\u66dd\u5149\uff0c\u5728\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005-\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u957f\u671f\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u805a\u7c7b\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bc4\u4f30\u5728\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u7a81\u51fa<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u54ea\u79cd\u52a8\u529b\u5b66[50]\u3002\u8865\u5145\u7ae0\u8282A.8\u4e2d\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u8eab\u4efd\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5f15\u6587[47]\u4e2d\u5f00\u521b\u7684\u201c\u591a\u91cd\u4e16\u754c\u201d\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8865\u5145\u3002\u5728\u7262\u8bb0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6ce8\u610f\u4e8b\u9879\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u5c40\u90e8\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5f3a\u70c8\u5730\u8868\u660e\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u6548\u5e94\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u5bcc\u8005\u66f4\u5bcc\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u7684<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6765\u81ea\u533f\u540d\u66dd\u5149\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u6392\u540d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7528\u6237\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u5e73\u53f0<\/span>\uff08UGC\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u65b0\u95fb\u7f51\u7ad9\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u7528\u6237\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6295\u7968\u5bf9\u5185\u5bb9\u8fdb\u884c\u7b97\u6cd5\u6392\u540d\uff0c\u5e76\u4f18\u5148\u8003\u8651\u6536\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u6b63\u9762\u548c\u66f4\u5c11\u8d1f\u9762\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e3a\u5185\u5bb9\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5206\u6570\u6216\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5206\u6570\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5206\u6570\u53ef\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u5230\u7528\u6237\u901a\u5e38\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u6295\u7968\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u540e\u7eed\u6295\u7968\u8005\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8a\u7fa4\u6548\u5e94<\/strong>[4]\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u73af\u5883\u662f\u6309\u65f6\u95f4\u987a\u5e8f\u663e\u793a\u8bc4\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u5e73\u53f0\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e00\u4e2a\u6392\u540d\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u89c2\u4f17\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u8303\u6765\u63d0\u9ad8\u7528\u6237\u751f\u6210\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u8d28\u91cf<\/strong>[49]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5728\u672c\u8282\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u6839\u636e\u5148\u524d\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u6295\u7968\u5bf9\u8bc4\u8bba\u8fdb\u884c\u6392\u540d\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u62df\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u4f18\u5316\u533f\u540d\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u6b63\u9762\u6295\u7968\u548c\u66f4\u5c11\u8d1f\u9762\u6295\u7968\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u57fa\u4e8e\u5df2\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u66dd\u5149\u7684\u6295\u7968\u7684\u6392\u540d\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u57fa\u4e8e\u533f\u540d\u66dd\u5149\u7684\u6295\u7968\u7684\u6392\u540d\u6240\u6539\u8fdb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5047\u8bbe\u8bc4\u8bba\u662f\u7531\u7528\u6237\u7ed9\u8bc4\u8bba\u6295\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u6216\u6295\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u6982\u7387\u7684\u51f8\u7ec4\u5408\u6765\u8bc4\u5206\u7684\uff1a\u03b1Pr(\u8d5e\u6210\u7968 | \u8bc4\u8bba\u8005) – (1-\u03b1)Pr(\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968 | \u8bc4\u8bba\u8005)\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f30\u8ba1\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5728\u5176\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e0a\u6536\u5230\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee5\u03b1\u4e3a\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u58f0\u8a89\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u4f30\u8ba1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u7279\u5b9a\u6982\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u7528\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5728\u5df2\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u66dd\u5149\u4e0a\u6536\u5230\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u6295\u7968\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u6216\u53ea\u4f7f\u7528\u533f\u540d\u66dd\u5149\u3002\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u6a21\u62df\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b97\u6cd5\u9605\u8bfb\u524d50\u3001100\u548c200\u6761\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002\u5728\u56fe3\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7ed8\u5236\u4e86\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u03b1\u503c\u4e0b\u4ece\u6a21\u62df\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u6bcf\u6761\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u8d5e\u6210\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u03b1\u503c\u63a7\u5236\u7740\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u6570\u91cf\u591a\u4e8e\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe3\uff1a\u7b97\u6cd5\u6392\u540d\u6a21\u62df\u3002\u5782\u76f4\u9762\u677f\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u7528\u6237\u6839\u636e\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u671f\u95f4\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u5bf9\u6392\u540d\u9760\u524d\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u524d 50\u3001100 \u548c 200 \u6761\u8bc4\u8bba\u751f\u6210\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u533f\u540d\u53cd\u9988\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u8bbe\u7f6e\u53c2\u6570 \u03b1 \u2208 [0, 1] \u6765\u6743\u8861\u63d0\u9ad8\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u548c\u9650\u5236\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\uff0c\u8be5\u53c2\u6570\u6cbf\u56fe\u7684 x \u8f74\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5728\u6bcf\u6761\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u548c\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u5df2\u8bc6\u522b\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u6295\u7968\u8fdb\u884c\u6392\u540d\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\uff08\u4e0a\u56fe\uff09\u540c\u6837\u5177\u6709\u4fe1\u606f\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u533f\u540d\u8bc4\u8bba\u4f7f\u7528\u8bc4\u7ea7\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9650\u5236\u6536\u5230\u533f\u540d\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\uff08\u4e0b\u56fe\uff09\u66f4\u5177\u4fe1\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\u5728\u56fe3\u4e2d\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u533f\u540d\u66dd\u5149\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8ba9\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e0a\u6d6e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u8ba9\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e0a\u6d6e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u4e00\u81f4\u5730\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u5c0f\u8282\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u201d\u4e2d\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u662f\u7531\u88ab\u8bc6\u522b\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u9a71\u52a8\u7684<\/strong>\u5728\u8eab\u4efd\u4fe1\u606f\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u5c06\u5173\u4e8e\u5185\u5bb9\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u53cd\u9988\u4e0e\u57fa\u4e8e\u5148\u524d\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u4fe1\u53f7\u6df7\u4e3a\u4e00\u8c08\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5982\u679c\u5e73\u53f0\u63d0\u4f9b\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5bf9\u533f\u540d\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u771f\u76f8\u2014\u2014\u5bf9\u5185\u5bb9\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u8f83\u5c11\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u4e48\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e9b\u89c2\u4f17\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u8fdb\u884c\u533f\u540d\uff0c\u5e76\u6355\u6349\u5176\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u8d1f\u9762\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u6765\u83b7\u5f97\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u6392\u540d\u548c\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u88682\uff1a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6c47\u603b\u7edf\u8ba1\u3002\u865a\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u5904\u7406\u72b6\u6001\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be5\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u8ba8\u8bba\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u88682\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u6c47\u603b\u7edf\u8ba1\u3002\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u5e73\u8861\u68c0\u67e5\u201d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u5316\u68c0\u67e5\uff0c\u56fe4\u4e2d\u68c0\u67e5\u4e86\u65b0\u9896\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u5728\u56fe5\u4e2d\u88ab\u68c0\u67e5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe4. \u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c\u3002\u56fa\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8ba1\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u671f\u95f4\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6708\u5bf9\u8d5e\u6210\u3001\u53cd\u5bf9\u548c\u56de\u590d\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c\u3002\u7ebf\u6761\u8868\u793a 95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4CI\u3002\u6807\u51c6\u8bef\u5dee\u805a\u96c6\u5728\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005-\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5c42\u9762\u3002N = 12,583,408\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe5. \u56e0\u679c\u56fe\uff0c\u6307\u793a\u6211\u4eec\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5047\u8bbe\u6392\u9664\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u72b6\u6001Dj1\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002\u9996\u5148\u662fYij1<\/sub>\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u5b9e\u7ebf\uff09\u548c\u672c\u6587\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u70b9\u3002\u5176\u6b21\u662fYi’j2<\/sub>\uff0c\u5bf9\u89c2\u4f17\u5bf9\u540c\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u76f8\u90bb\u8bc4\u8bba\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u865a\u7ebf\uff09\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5173\u4e8eYi’j3<\/sub>\uff0c\uff08\u66f4\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\uff09\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u865a\u7ebf\uff09\u5bf9\u89c2\u4f17\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5e72\u6270\u90e8\u5206\u7528\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u5047\u8bbe\u7b2c\u4e09\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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4. \u8ba8\u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u4f20\u8fbe\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u5185\u5bb9\u521b\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u4e30\u5bcc\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u5904\u7406\u4ed6\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u968f\u540e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u6295\u7968\u548c\u662f\u5426\u56de\u590d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e09\u4e2a\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6807\u51c6\u662f\u7531\u4ee5\u524d\u5173\u4e8e\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u548c\u5176\u4e0e\u8bc4\u8bba\u89c2\u4f17\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6587\u732e\u6240\u6fc0\u53d1\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u53c2\u4e0e\u793e\u533a\u7684\u4e09\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u64b0\u5199\u8bc4\u8bba\uff08\u751f\u4ea7\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u64b0\u5199\u83b7\u5f97\u8f83\u9ad8\/\u8f83\u4f4e\u5f97\u5206\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\uff08\u58f0\u8a89\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u6295\u7968\uff08\u4e92\u60e0\uff09<\/strong>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4e0e\u5bf9\u8bc4\u7ea7\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u6709\u5173\u3002\u89c2\u4f17\u7684\u6295\u7968\u51b3\u5b9a\u7531\u4e8e\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u7684\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u800c\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f71\u54cd\u663e\u7136\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u7684\u4e86\u89e3<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u6295\u7968\u901f\u5ea6\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u6295\u7968\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u4f7f\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u5904\u7406\u53d6\u4ee3\u9ad8\u8ba4\u77e5\u6210\u672c\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u8bc4\u4f30\u65b9\u5f0f\u76f8\u4e00\u81f4<\/strong>\u3002\u7efc\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u63cf\u7ed8\u4e86\u4e00\u5e45\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5728\u793e\u533a\u5185\u4f5c\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u652f\u67b6\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u753b\u9762\uff0c\u4e3a\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u6700\u8fd1\u6d3b\u52a8\u3001\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u6295\u7968\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u6295\u7968\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u9690\u6027\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u53c8\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u6d4f\u89c8\u8005\u5bf9\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u7edf\u4e00\u63d0\u4f9b\u6216\u9690\u85cf\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u7684\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u7a81\u51fa\u54ea\u4e9b\u548c\u591a\u5c11\u5173\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5e73\u53f0\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u65e2\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u5b9e\u9645\u4ef7\u503c[51]\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5206\u79bb\u51fa\u4e86\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5851\u9020\u89c2\u70b9\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6d8c\u73b0\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4f46\u5404\u79cd\u53cd\u9988\u56de\u8def\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u4f7f\u5f97\u5c06\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u63a8\u65ad\u5230\u5e73\u53f0\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u5b9e\u540d\u5236\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u6548\u679c\uff09<\/span>\u5177\u6709\u6311\u6218\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u88ab\u666e\u904d\u63d0\u4f9b\u6216\u9690\u85cf\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u4ecb\u5bfc\u7684\u201c\u9a6c\u592a\u6548\u5e94\u201d\u5927\u4f53\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u4e0e\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u8f83\u5f31\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d<\/strong>\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u6709\u9ad8\u7968\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u6536\u5230\u7684\u9ad8\u7968\u660e\u663e\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5f97\u77e5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u5206\u6570\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u6570[4]\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8bc4\u8bba\u88ab\u7b97\u6cd5\u6392\u540d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bc4\u8bba\u8005\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u6536\u5230\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u53cd\u9988\u800c\u4eab\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u77e5\u540d\u5ea6<\/strong>[49]\u3002\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u8eab\u4efd\u4fe1\u606f\u7a81\u663e\u65f6\uff0c\u6709\u5bcc\u8005\u6108\u5bcc\u6548\u5e94<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5728\u7f51\u4e0a\u65e0\u5904\u4e0d\u5728\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u5bf9\u5176\u5bf9\u89c2\u70b9\u548c\u793e\u533a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7f3a\u4e4f\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u7a81\u51fa\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u793e\u4ea4\u5e73\u53f0\u5df2\u7ecf\u63a8\u884c\u4e86\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u201c\u5b9e\u540d\u5236\u201d\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u904f\u5236\u7f51\u4e0a\u7684\u6709\u5bb3\u8a00\u8bba<\/strong>\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5982\u5fb7\u56fd\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u88c1\u5b9a\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bc6\u522b\u653f\u7b56\u8fdd\u53cd\u4e86\u9690\u79c1\u6cd5\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u52aa\u529b\u89e3\u51b3\u7f51\u4e0a\u8eab\u4efd\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u4e86\u89e3\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u5bf9\u89c2\u70b9\u548c\u793e\u533a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\u3002\u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\u5360\u4e0e\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6295\u7968\u53d8\u5316\u768428-61%\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u5185\u5bb9\u8bc4\u4ef7\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u5bf9\u5185\u5bb9\u8fdb\u884c\u6392\u540d\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u3002\u672c\u5de5\u4f5c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5728\u5e73\u53f0\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u51b3\u5b9a\u4f55\u65f6\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u8bc6\u522b\u5728\u7ebf\u4e92\u52a8<\/strong>\uff0c\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u4e86\u89e3\u8eab\u4efd\u7ebf\u7d22\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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