{"id":39397,"date":"2022-12-22T21:44:40","date_gmt":"2022-12-22T13:44:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=39397"},"modified":"2022-12-22T21:44:40","modified_gmt":"2022-12-22T13:44:40","slug":"pnas%ef%bc%9a%e5%9c%a8covid-19%e5%a4%a7%e6%b5%81%e8%a1%8c%e6%9c%9f%e9%97%b4%ef%bc%8c%e7%96%ab%e6%83%85%e7%96%b2%e5%8a%b3%e5%8a%a0%e5%89%a7%e4%ba%86%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e4%b8%8d%e6%bb%a1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=39397","title":{"rendered":"PNAS\uff1a\u5728COVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u5728 COVID-19 \u5927\u6d41\u884c\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u52a8\u8361\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\u4e0e\u201c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u201d\uff08pandemic fatigue\uff09 \u6709\u5173\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u75b2\u52b3\u201d\u968f\u7740\u53d7\u9650\u5236\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u800c\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u968f\u7740\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5ef6\u957f\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5b83\u52a9\u957f\u4e86\u5bf9\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u4e0d\u4fe1\u4efb\u3001\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u5bf9\u6297\u8bae\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u573a\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u5df2\u7ecf\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u5373\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7834\u574f\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5c06\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7eb3\u5165\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u7f13\u51b2\u75b2\u52b3\u548c\u62b5\u5236\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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Frederik J\u00f8rgensen, Alexander Bor, Magnus Storm Rasmussen\u7b49<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5218\u5fd7\u822a\u3001\u5218\u57f9\u6e90<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u7ffb\u8bd1<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Pandemic fatigue fueled political discontent during the COVID-19 pandemic<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u536b\u751f\u90e8\u95e8\u5f3a\u8c03\u201c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u201d\u662f COVID-19 \u5927\u6d41\u884c\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fc3\u7406\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\u201c\u75b2\u52b3\u201d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u9075\u5b88\u536b\u751f\u76f8\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u6027\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56e0\u9075\u5b88\u5f53\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u75b2\u52b3\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u51fa\u5065\u5eb7\u9886\u57df\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5df2\u7ecf\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u548c\u611f\u77e5\u6210\u672c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u653f\u6cbb\u673a\u6784\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\u60c5\u7eea\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u536b\u751f\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u65e0\u6cd5\u201c\u6301\u7eed\u4fdd\u6301\u201d\u5404\u79cd\u9650\u5236\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u4e2d\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u662f\u5426\u52a9\u957f\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u60c5\u7eea\u3002\u5229\u75282020\u5e749\u6708\u81f32021\u5e747\u6708\u5728\u516b\u4e2a\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u7eb5\u5411\u548c\u9762\u677f\u8c03\u67e5<\/span>\uff08N = 49,116\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u4e86\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u75b2\u52b3\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u548c\u4e0d\u6ee1\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u8054\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\uff083\uff09\u4f7f\u7528\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\u63a8\u65ad\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u800c\u660e\u663e\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u8870\u9000\u800c\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u5f53\u88ab\u89e6\u53d1\u65f6\uff0c\u75b2\u52b3\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6297\u8bae\u652f\u6301\u548c\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u601d\u7ef4\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u5065\u5eb7\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5e76\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u793e\u4f1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u53d1\u751f\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u793e\u4f1a\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u5404\u79cd\u77db\u76fe\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\u641e\u5f97\u5f88\u7d27\u5f20\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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2. \u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u6750\u6599<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5728\u8fd9\u516b\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u516c\u53f8 Epinion \u4f7f\u7528\u5728\u7ebf\u9762\u677f\u5bf9\u6210\u5e74\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u62bd\u6837\u3002\u5728\u88ab\u9080\u8bf7\u53c2\u52a0\u6211\u4eec\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u5c0f\u7ec4\u6210\u5458\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6837\u672c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u56de\u590d\u7387\u5728 15%<\/span>\uff08\u5308\u7259\u5229\uff09<\/span>\u523060%<\/span>\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\uff09<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u5bf9\u8c03\u67e5\u5bf9\u8c61\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5b9a\u989d\u62bd\u6837\uff0c\u4ee5\u7b26\u5408\u516b\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u5e74\u9f84\u3001\u6027\u522b\u548c\u5730\u7406\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u6837\u672c\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u540e\u5206\u5c42\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ee5\u5339\u914d\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u8fb9\u9645<\/span>\uff08\u5173\u4e8e\u6837\u672c\u4e0e\u4eba\u53e3\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6982\u8ff0\uff0c\u89c1SI\u9644\u5f55\uff0c\u8868S4-S11\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u9664\u5c0f\u7ec4\u5206\u6790\u5916\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u90fd\u91c7\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u540e\u5206\u5c42\u52a0\u6743\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u6bcf\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u88ab\u91cd\u65b0\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3a\u6570\u636e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u53ea\u53c2\u52a0\u4e86\u4e24\u6b21\uff0c\u800c\u6709\u4e9b\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5219\u53c2\u52a0\u4e86\u591a\u8fbe\u4e94\u6b21\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5728\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5c3d\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u9762\u677f\u6570\u636e\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e2d\u7ea6\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u6765\u81ea\u4e39\u9ea6\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4f59\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5728\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u6bd4\u8f83\u5e73\u5747<\/span>\uff08SI\u9644\u5f55\uff0c\u8868S2\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728SI\u9644\u5f55\u7684\u8868S3\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u663e\u793a\u5c0f\u7ec4\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u4e0e\u5355\u6ce2\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
2.2 \u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\uff081\uff09\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u5bf9\u4ee5\u4e0b\u9648\u8ff0\u7684\u540c\u610f\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u4fdd\u6301\u5bf9\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd|\u201d\u3002\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u4ee55\u5206\u5236\u56de\u7b54\uff0c\u8303\u56f4\u4ece\u201c\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u201d\u5230\u201c\u5b8c\u5168\u540c\u610f\u201d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u56de\u7b54\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u91cd\u65b0\u5212\u5206\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u57280\u548c1\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6570\u503c\u8d8a\u9ad8\u8868\u793a\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002SI\u9644\u5f55\uff0c\u56feS1\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u5404\u56fd\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u56de\u7b54\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u8be5\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u63aa\u8f9e\u65e8\u5728\u7528\u65e5\u5e38\u7684\u3001\u5177\u6709\u9762\u90e8\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u6765\u6355\u6349\u75b2\u60eb\u611f\u7684\u8868\u8fbe\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ddf\u4e0a\u8dd1\u6b65\u8005\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u6216\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u611f\u89c9\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e00\u63aa\u65bd\u786e\u5b9e\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\uff0c\u5b83\u5e94\u8be5\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u9075\u5b88\u75ab\u60c5\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u611f\u77e5\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u964d\u4f4e\u9075\u5b88\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u62c5\u5fc3\u611f\u67d3\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5931\u53bb\u9075\u5b88\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6784\u6210\u75b2\u52b3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\u8be5\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u5efa\u6784\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0cSI\u9644\u5f55\u56feS2\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u4e0e\u75ab\u60c5\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u9075\u5b88\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u6210\u672c\u2014\u2014\u5b64\u72ec\u611f[18-20]\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u6f5c\u5728\u6df7\u6dc6\u56e0\u7d20\u2014\u2014\u52a8\u673a<\/span>\uff08\u79ef\u6781\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u8054\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5b64\u72ec\u611f\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6050\u60e7\u611f\u3001\u81ea\u6211\u6548\u80fd\u611f\u3001\u81ea\u6211\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u4eba\u53e3\u5b66\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u89c1\u4e0b\u6587\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba8\u8bba\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5206\u6790\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u5b64\u72ec\u611f\u548c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u3001\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u5f3a\u5173\u8054\u3002\u5b64\u72ec\u611f\u589e\u52a0\u4e24\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u4e0e\u75b2\u52b3\u611f\u589e\u52a023.4%\u70b9\u6709\u5173<\/span>\uff0895%CI\uff1a19.9\uff0c26.8\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5173\u8054\u6bd4\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5f3a\u7684\u5173\u8054\u59273.3\u500d\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\u5f53\u524d\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u6d4b\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u8d8b\u540c\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0c2022\u5e743\u6708\u5728\u5fb7\u56fd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u5355\u72ec\u7684\u7814\u7a76[40]\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u5f53\u524d\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u8fc7\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u91cf\u8868[7]\u548c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u201c\u65b0\u51a0\u75b2\u52b3\u201d\u91cf\u8868[29]\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u652f\u6301\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u6536\u655b\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u4e0e\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u91cf\u8868<\/span>\uff08r = 0.48\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e0e\u5b83\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u75b2\u52b3\u5b50\u90e8\u5206<\/span>\uff08r = 0.52\uff09<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e0e\u65b0\u51a0\u75b2\u52b3\u91cf\u8868<\/span>\uff08r = 0.30\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u53ef\u89c2<\/span>\uff08SI \u9644\u5f55\uff0cS1.5\u8282\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\uff082\uff09\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u7d20<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u4e09\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66COVID-19\u653f\u5e9c\u53cd\u5e94\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5668<\/span>\uff08OxCGRT\uff09<\/span>[41]\u8861\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6COVID-19\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u9488\u5bf9\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u516c\u5171\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u63aa\u65bd<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5b66\u6821\u548c\u5de5\u4f5c\u573a\u6240\u5173\u95ed\u3001\u5bb5\u7981\u548c\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u65c5\u884c\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u767b\u8bb0\u7684\u4eba\u5747\u65e5\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570<\/span>\uff08\u7531OxCGRT\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u62a5\u544a\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u7279\u5b9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u5bf9\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5f00\u59cb\u4ee5\u6765\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u8861\u91cf[26]\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4e3a0\uff0c\u5355\u4f4d\u4e3a2\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\uff0c\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u7cfb\u6570\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f8\u4e92\u6bd4\u8f83[42]\u3002\u4e24\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5927\u7ea6\u534a\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6bcf\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u4e2d\u670910.4\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u75c5\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca100\u5206\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\u768425.5\u5206\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\uff083\uff09\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u540e\u679c<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u52a9\u957f\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u4e0e\u516d\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\u6307\u6807\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\uff081\uff09\u53cd\u5bf9COVID-19\u7684\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\uff082\uff09\u6297\u8bae\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\uff083\uff09\u76f8\u4fe1COVID-19\u7684\u9634\u8c0b\uff0c\uff084\uff09\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u6743\u5229\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\uff085\uff09\u5bf9\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u4e0d\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\uff086\uff09\u5bf9\u5f3a\u52bf\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u9009\u62e9\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f17\u591a\u6307\u6807\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u53cd\u6620\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u6f5c\u5728\u9762\u8c8c\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u7b56\u53cd\u5bf9\u3001\u4e0d\u4fe1\u4efb\u3001\u6297\u8bae\u884c\u4e3a\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u4e3b\u5bfc\u8005\u3001\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u63a8\u5d07[2]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6211\u4eec\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u53e3\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\uff1a\u6027\u522b\u3001\u5e74\u9f84\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u548c\u6536\u5165\u3002\u6027\u522b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff080\u4ee3\u8868\u5973\u6027\uff1b1\u4ee3\u8868\u7537\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5e74\u9f84\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u5e73\u5747\u503c0\u548c2\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u7684\u5355\u4f4d\u6765\u91cd\u65b0\u5212\u5206\u3002\u6559\u80b2\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u6807\u51c6\u6559\u80b2\u5206\u7c7b\u7684\u6307\u6807\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff080\u4ee3\u8868\u975e\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\uff1b1\u4ee3\u8868\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6536\u5165\u662f\u4ee5\u56fd\u5bb6\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u5341\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6536\u5165\u4fe1\u606f\u91cd\u65b0\u7f16\u7801\u4e3a\u4e09\u7c7b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u3001\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u548c\u672a\u62a5\u544a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6b63\u5982\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u662f\u5426\u88ab\u4e0e\u52a8\u673a\u6216\u673a\u4f1a\u6709\u5173\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u6240\u6df7\u6dc6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u989d\u5916\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5305\u62ec\u5148\u524d\u7814\u7a76\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u52a8\u673a\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6050\u60e7\u4ee5\u53ca\u81ea\u6211\u6548\u80fd\u611f<\/span>\uff08\u89c1\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e[22]\u548c[36]\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u9075\u7eaa\u5b88\u6cd5\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u5c06\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u7d20\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u5bf9\u6536\u5165\u548c\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a7\u5236\u5c06\u51cf\u5c11\u6765\u81ea\u8fd9\u4e00\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u63a7\u5236\u5176\u4ed6\u63a7\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u6240\u4e0d\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u81ea\u6211\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6539\u53d8\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u6d4b\u91cf\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u4f20\u64ad\u611f\u67d3<\/span>\uff08\u5373\uff0c\u884c\u4e3a\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\uff0c\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e[22]\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u5b64\u72ec\u611f\u548c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u5173\u8054\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5b64\u72ec\u611f\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5c06\u5b64\u72ec\u611f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u75b2\u52b3\u548c\u4e0d\u6ee1\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u8054\u7684\u865a\u5047\u6027\u3002\u6240\u6709\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7f16\u7801\u8be6\u89c1SI\u9644\u5f55S1.7\u8282\u3002\u4e0e\u5e74\u9f84\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u5747\u503c0\u548c\u5355\u4f4d2\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u6765\u91cd\u65b0\u8861\u91cf\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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3. \u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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 <\/span><\/section>\n
3.1 \u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u662f\u7531\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u7684<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u9996\u5148\u5173\u6ce8\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u56fe1\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u8c03\u67e5\u671f\u95f4<\/span>\uff082020\u5e749\u6708-2021\u5e747\u6708\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u75b2\u52b3\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u56fe1\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u8fd911\u4e2a\u6708\u4e2d\uff0c8\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u67097\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3<\/span>\uff08\u5b9e\u7ebf\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u9010\u6e10\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u589e\u52a0\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u57282021\u5e74\u6625\u5929<\/span>\uff082021\u5e744\u6708\u5de6\u53f3\uff09<\/span>\u8d8b\u4e8e\u5e73\u7f13\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u5728\u5fb7\u56fd\u548c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u6700\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e39\u9ea6\u3001\u745e\u5178\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5728\u6cd5\u56fd\u53d1\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n

\u56fe1. \u75b2\u52b3\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548cCOVID-19\u6bcf\u65e5\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u60c5\u51b5\uff082020\u5e749\u6708-2021\u5e747\u6708\uff09\u3002\u5b9e\u7ebf\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u7684\u75b2\u52b3\u5ea6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528 lowes \u5e73\u6ed1\u5668\u3002\u865a\u7ebf\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9COVID-19\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u725b\u6d25\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\uff09\u3002\u7ea2\u8272\u533a\u57df\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u5185\u6838\u5e73\u6ed1\u5668\u7684COVID-19\u6bcf\u65e5\u767e\u4e07\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u603b\u4f53\u6a21\u5f0f\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08\u865a\u7ebf\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u65b9\u9762\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u5e73\u884c\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u671f\u7684\u524d\u534a\u6bb5\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u90fd\u5728\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u76f4\u52302021\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u8fd9\u7b26\u5408\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u666e\u904d\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u57282021\u5e74\u7684\u5934\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u52302021\u5e744\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u610f\u5927\u5229\u548c\u5fb7\u56fd\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u56fe1\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u4e0e\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08\u7ea2\u8272\u533a\u57df\uff09<\/span>\u5448\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u5728\u516b\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8be5\u56fe\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5f53\u6bcf\u5929\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570<\/span>\uff08\u4eba\u5747\uff09<\/span>\u51cf\u5c11\u65f6\uff0c\u75b2\u52b3\u611f\u8d8b\u4e8e\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u56fe1\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5f53\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\u65f6\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8be5\u56fe\u4e5f\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5728\u56fe2\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u62c6\u5206\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0e\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u9ed1\u8272\u7684\u70b9\u662f\u57fa\u7ebf\u591a\u5c42\u6b21\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u84dd\u8272\u7684\u70b9\u662f\u5e26\u6709\u989d\u5916\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u6c34\u5e73\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u3002\u56fe2\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u75b2\u52b3\u611f\u4e5f\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u57288\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u5ea6\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u671f\u95f4\u6bcf6\u4e2a\u6708\u589e\u52a0\u7ea65.8%\u70b9<\/span>\uff0895% CI: 4.1, 7.6\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u76f8\u5e94\u5730\uff0c\u4e0e\u4f7f\u7528\u65f6\u95f4\u4f5c\u4e3a\u75b2\u52b3\u6307\u6807\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u4f46\u901f\u5ea6\u7f13\u6162\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe2. \u56fd\u5bb6\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u52a0\u6743\u591a\u5c42\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u548c95%\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff08n = 49,116\uff09\u3002\u57fa\u51c6\u591a\u5c42\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u9ed1\u8272\uff09\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u5c06\u75b2\u52b3\u611f\u56de\u5f52\u5230\u653f\u7b56\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3001\u65b0\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u968f\u673a\u622a\u8ddd\u3002\u5e26\u6709\u989d\u5916\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u84dd\u8272\uff09\u4ee3\u8868\u6765\u81ea\u5305\u62ec\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u6050\u60e7\u3001\u6548\u80fd\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u5b64\u72ec\u611f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u989d\u5916\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u8f6c\u5411\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u6027\uff0c\u56fe2\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u5f53\u67d0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u66f4\u52a0\u4e25\u683c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u9075\u4ece\u7684\u6210\u672c\u66f4\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u75b2\u52b3\u611f\u66f4\u5c11\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u5f53\u653f\u7b56\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6536\u7d272\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u65f6\uff0c\u75b2\u52b3\u611f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u7ea63.3%\u70b9<\/span>\uff0895%CI\uff1a1.6\uff0c5.1\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5f53\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u65f6\uff0c\u516c\u6c11\u4f3c\u4e4e\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u8f83\u5c11\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53COVID-19\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u589e\u52a02\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u5ea6\u5e73\u5747\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86\u7ea6-2.2%\u70b9<\/span>\uff0895%CI\uff1a-3.9\uff0c-0.3\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e25\u91cd\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4ece\u9075\u5b88\u4e00\u5957\u6052\u5b9a\u7684\u9650\u5236\u4e2d\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u75b2\u60eb\u611f\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u5728SI\u9644\u5f55\uff0c\u56feS7\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4e25\u683c\u6027\u548cCOVID-19\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4e0e\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u5173\u8054\u662f\u5426\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5e76\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u6027\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u6027\u5728\u4e0e\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u5173\u8054\u4e2d\u4e3b\u8981\u4e0d\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5f88\u5c11\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4ee4\u4eba\u6b23\u6170\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u7d20\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u5e26\u6709\u989d\u5916\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u8ddf\u8e2a\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4e0e\u75b2\u60eb\u611f\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u8bf8\u5982\u5bf9\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u7b49\u52a8\u673a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u8bc4\u4f30\u75b2\u60eb\u611f\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4e25\u683c\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6210\u672c\u79ef\u7d2f\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5728SI\u9644\u5f55\uff0c\u56feS6\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u989d\u5916\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u5c06\u540e\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u5f53\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u5b9a\u6c34\u5e73\u65f6\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u662f\u5426\u4e0e\u75b2\u52b3\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u5173\u8054\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570<\/span>\uff08\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c2020\u5e743\u6708\u81f32021\u5e747\u6708\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u56fd\u522b\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u5929\u6570\u4e0e\u75b2\u52b3\u6709\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u4e25\u683c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u5173\u8054\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u6f2b\u957f\u65f6\u671f\u5bf9\u516c\u4f17\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u7279\u522b\u7d2f\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
3.2 \u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u4e2a\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u60c5\u7eea<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8f6c\u5411\u4e86\u89e3\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u662f\u5426\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u3002\u56fe3\u62a5\u544a\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u591a\u5c42\u6b21\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u4e0d\u6ee1\u60c5\u7eea\u56de\u5f52\u5230\u75b2\u52b3\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u4e0a\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u7740\u91cd\u4e8e\u57fa\u7ebf\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08\u9ed1\u8272\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u611f\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u6709\u5173\u3002\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u628a\u75b2\u52b3\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u4e0e\u75b2\u52b3\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6700\u4f4e\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u65f6\uff0c\u57fa\u7ebf\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u793a\u53cd\u5bf9\u65b0\u51a0\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u589e\u52a0\u4e8639.5%-\u70b9<\/span>\uff0895%CI\uff1a34.6\uff0c44.4\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u6297\u8bae\u65b0\u51a0\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u589e\u52a0\u4e8627. 6%\u70b9<\/span>\uff0895%CI\uff1a21.4\uff0c31.8\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u65b0\u51a0\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u589e\u52a0\u4e8629.1%\u70b9<\/span>\uff0895%CI\uff1a23.3\uff0c35.0\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u6743\u5229\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u589e\u52a0\u4e8636.2%\u70b9<\/span>\uff0895%CI\uff1a30.1\uff0c42.2\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u4e0d\u4fe1\u4efb\u589e\u52a0\u4e8614.2%\u70b9<\/span>\uff0895%CI\uff1a7.2\uff0c21.2\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u60a3\u6709\u8f83\u9ad8\u75b2\u52b3\u75c7\u7684\u4eba\u5bf9\u5f3a\u52bf\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u652f\u6301\u5ea6\u964d\u4f4e\u4e863.7%\u70b9<\/span>\uff0895%CI\uff1a-6.7\uff0c-0.7\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

\u56fe3. \u56fe\u4e2d\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u75b2\u52b3\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u548c95%\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u6765\u81ea\u52a0\u6743\u7684\u591a\u5c42\u56de\u5f52\uff08n = 46,222-48,714\uff09\u3002\u57fa\u51c6\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u9ed1\u8272\u5706\u5708\uff09\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u5728\u75b2\u52b3\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a7\u5236\uff08\u6027\u522b\u3001\u5e74\u9f84\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u548c\u6536\u5165\uff09\u7684\u89c4\u8303\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u3002\u989d\u5916\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u84dd\u8272\u5706\u5708\uff09\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u662f\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u989d\u5916\u63a7\u5236\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u6050\u60e7\u3001\u6548\u529b\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u548c\u5b64\u72ec\u611f\u7b49\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u6240\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u5305\u62ec\u968f\u673a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u8c03\u67e5\u6ce2\u6bb5\u7684\u622a\u8ddd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u4ece\u57fa\u7ebf\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u5f88\u5c0f\u3002\u5e26\u6709\u989d\u5916\u63a7\u5236\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08\u84dd\u8272\uff09<\/span>\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u660e\u52a8\u673a\u548c\u673a\u4f1a\u56e0\u7d20\u5e76\u4e0d\u5f3a\u70c8\u5e72\u6270\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u75b2\u52b3\u548c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e0d\u6ee1\u6307\u6807\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5728\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002\u5728SI\u9644\u5f55\uff0c\u56feS8\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u653e\u5bbd\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u591a\u5c42\u6b21\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u75b2\u52b3\u659c\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u53d6\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u548c\u516d\u4e2a\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7ed3\u679c\u6307\u6807\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56fd\u522b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u56fd\u522b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u672c\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u7ed3\u8bba\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
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<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

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4. \u8ba8\u8bba\u4e0e\u7ed3\u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n
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\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5f15\u8d77\u5bf9\u5f3a\u52bf\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u662f\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5bf9\u6743\u5a01\u4eba\u7269\u7684\u6d88\u6781\u670d\u4ece<\/span>\uff08\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u533a\u522b\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u89c1\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e[2]\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ece\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u5f53\u75b2\u52b3\u662f\u7531\u9075\u5b88\u56fd\u5bb6\u89c4\u5b9a\u7684\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u6210\u672c\u9020\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u88ab\u6fc0\u52b1\u53bb\u670d\u4ece\u6743\u5a01\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53bb\u6297\u8bae\u6743\u5a01\u3002\u867d\u7136\u7ed3\u679c\u56e0\u6b64\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u75b2\u60eb\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6fc0\u6d3b\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4e3b\u52a8\u548c\u88ab\u52a8\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u533a\u522b[9]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u73b0\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5bf9\u8bb8\u591a\u897f\u65b9\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u672a\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7[1]\u3002\u5f53\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u57282020\u5e743\u6708\u88ad\u51fb\u897f\u65b9\u4e16\u754c\u65f6\uff0c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u65e5\u76ca\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u3001\u6587\u5316\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u5f04\u5f97\u5f88\u7d27\u5f20\u3002\u75ab\u60c5\u75b2\u52b3\u5bf9\u53cd\u4f53\u5236\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u52a0\u6df1\u8fd9\u79cd\u88c2\u75d5\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4fb5\u8680\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6311\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u7279\u522b\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u4ed6\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u5982\u6c14\u5019\u5371\u673a\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u53d6\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u79c1\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u8d77\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8eCOVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u671f\u95f4\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u4e0d\u826f\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5c31\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u6c9f\u901a\u548c\u652f\u6301\u8ba1\u5212\u6765\u6700\u6709\u6548\u5730\u7f13\u51b2\u516c\u5171\u5e72\u9884\u9020\u6210\u7684\u75b2\u52b3\u611f\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u5faa\u8bc1\u89c1\u89e3\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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[1] P. Turchin, Ages of discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (Beresta Books, Chaplin Connecticut, 2016).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[2] M. B. Petersen, M. Osmundsen, A. Bor \u201cBeyond populism: the psychology of status-seeking and extreme political discontent\u201d in The Psychology of Populism: The Tribal Challenge to Liberal Democracy, J. P. Forgas, W. D. Crano, K. Fiedler, Eds. (Routledge, 2021), pp. 62\u201380.<\/span><\/p>\n


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[3] H.  Bartusevi\u010dius, A. Bor, F. J\u00f8rgensen, M. B. Petersen, The Psychological  burden of the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with antisystemic  attitudes and political violence. Psycholog. Sci. 32, 1391\u20131403 (2021).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[4] J. Zarocostas, How to fight an infodemic. Lancet 395, 676 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[5] S. Obradovi\u0107, S. A. Power, J. Sheehy-Skeffington, Understanding the psychological appeal of populism. Curr. Opin. Psychol. 35, 125\u2013131 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[6] World Health Organization, Pandemic  fatigue: reinvigorating the public to prevent COVID-19: Policy  framework for supporting pandemic prevention and management: Revised  version November 2020 (Technical report, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, 2020).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[7] L.  Lilleholt, I. Zettler, C. Betsch, R. B\u00f6hm, Pandemic fatigue:  measurement, correlates, and consequences. PsyArxiv [Preprint] (2020). https:\/\/psyarxiv.com\/10.31234\/osf.io\/2xvbr (Accessed 2 November 2022).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[8] S. Michie, R. West, N. Harvey, The concept of \u201cfatigue\u201d in tackling covid-19. BMJ 371, m4171 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[9] S. Passini, Different ways of being authoritarian: The distinct effects of authoritarian dimensions on values and prejudice. Political Psychol. 38, 73\u201386 (2017).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[10] R.  Bromme, N. G. Mede, E. Thomm, B. Kremer, R. Ziegler, An anchor in  troubled times: Trust in science before and within the COVID-19  pandemic. PloS One 17, e0262823 (2022).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[11] R. S. Foa et al., The Great Reset: Public Opinion, Populism, and the Pandemic (Centre for the Future of Democracy, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2022).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[12] A.  Haktanir, N. Can, T. Seki, M. F. Kurnaz, B. Dilma\u00e7, Do we experience  pandemic fatigue? Current state, predictors, and prevention. Curr. Psychol. 41, 7314\u20137325 (2021).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[13] N. Harvey, Behavioral fatigue: Real phenomenon, na\u00efve construct, or policy contrivance? Frontiers in Psychol. 11, 2960 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[14] S. Reicher, J. Drury, Pandemic fatigue? How adherence to covid-19 regulations has been misrepresented and why it matters. BMJ 372, n137 (2021).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[15] C. Christodoulou, \u201cThe assessment and measurement of fatigue\u201d in Fatigue as a Window to the Brain, J. DeLuca, Ed. (MIT Press, 2005), pp. 19\u201335.<\/span><\/p>\n


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[16] C. R. Figley, \u201cCompassion fatigue: Toward a new understanding of the costs of caring\u201d in Secondary Traumatic Stress: Self-Care Issues for Clinicians, Researchers, and Educators, B. H. Stamm, Ed. (The Sidran Press, 1995), pp. 3\u201328.<\/span><\/p>\n


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[17] J.  L. Ford, S. R. Ivancic, Surviving organizational tolerance of sexual  harassment: An exploration of resilience, vulnerability, and harassment  fatigue. J. Appl. Commun. Res. 48, 186\u2013206 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[18] T. J. Hwang, K. Rabheru, C. Peisah, W. Reichman, M. Ikeda, Loneliness and social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Int. Psychogeriatrics 32, 1217\u20131220 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[19] Y.  Palgi et al., The loneliness pandemic: Loneliness and other  concomitants of depression, anxiety and their comorbidity during the  COVID-19 outbreak. J. Affective Disord. 275, 109\u2013111 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[20] J.  M. Groarke et al., Loneliness in the uk during the COVID-19 pandemic:  Cross-sectional results from the COVID-19 Psychological Wellbeing Study.  PloS One 15, e0239698 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[21] C.  A. Harper, L. P. Satchell, D. Fido, R. D. Latzman, Functional fear  predicts public health compliance in the COVID-19 pandemic. Int. J. Mental Health Addict. 19, 1875\u20131888 (2021).<\/span><\/p>\n


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[22] F.  J\u00f8rgensen, A. Bor, M. B. Petersen, Compliance without fear:  Individual-level protective behaviour during the first wave of the  COVID-19 pandemic. British J. Health Psychol. 26, 679\u2013696 (2021).<\/span><\/p>\n


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