{"id":46904,"date":"2023-12-01T17:32:45","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T09:32:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=46904"},"modified":"2023-12-01T17:32:45","modified_gmt":"2023-12-01T09:32:45","slug":"%e4%bd%a0%e7%9a%84%e5%85%ac%e5%8f%b8%e6%9c%89%e6%b2%a1%e6%9c%89%e5%81%8f%e7%a6%bb%e8%a7%84%e6%a8%a1%e6%b3%95%e5%88%99%ef%bc%9f%e4%b8%ad%e7%be%8e%e5%af%b9%e6%af%94%e3%80%81%e4%bc%81%e4%b8%9a%e8%af%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=46904","title":{"rendered":"\u4f60\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u504f\u79bb\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\uff1f\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0e\u751f\u957f\u9884\u6d4b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4ece\u751f\u547d\u7cfb\u7edf\u5230\u7e41\u590d\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u793e\u533a\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u4e43\u81f3\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u8868\u9762\u770b\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6beb\u65e0\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5404\u81ea\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4f46\u6df1\u5165\u6316\u6398\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u53d1\u73b0\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u6a2a\u8d2f\u5176\u95f4\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u201c\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\u201d\u4ee5\u5176\u7b80\u6d01\u800c\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u8131\u9896\u800c\u51fa\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5b8f\u89c2\u53d8\u91cf\u5982\u4f55\u968f\u7740\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6269\u5927\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b80\u5355\u6570\u91cf\u5173\u7cfb\u80cc\u540e\u9690\u542b\u7740\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u666e\u904d\u9002\u7528\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

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\u5f20\u6c5f<\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/span>| \u8bb2\u8005<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
\u7ba1\u6851\u7530<\/span><\/span> <\/span>| \u6574\u7406<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
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0. \u5f15\u8a00<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

1. \u4f01\u4e1a\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

2. \u4f01\u4e1a\u4e2d\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u89c4\u5f8b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n

    – \u9f50\u592b\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/span><\/p>\n

    – \u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219<\/span><\/p>\n

    – \u516c\u53f8\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\u53ca\u5176\u504f\u79bb<\/span><\/p>\n<\/ul>\n

    3. \u516c\u53f8\u7684\u751f\u957f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n

      – Gibrat \u5047\u8bf4\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u751f\u957f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span><\/p>\n

      – Stanley \u7684\u63a8\u5e7f\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u5b66<\/span><\/p>\n

      – \u4ece\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\u5f97\u5230\u751f\u957f\u65b9\u7a0b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/ul>\n

      4. \u5947\u70b9
      <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      5. \u7ed3\u8bed
      <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/p>\n


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      <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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      0. \u5f15\u8a00<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

      \n

      <\/section>\n

      <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


      <\/p>\n

      \u5728\u827e\u8428\u514b\u00b7\u963f\u897f\u83ab\u592b\u7b14\u4e0b\u7684\u300a\u57fa\u5730\u300b\u7cfb\u5217\u4e2d\uff0c\u94f6\u6cb3\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u6062\u5f18\u56fe\u666f\u4ee4\u4eba\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\uff1a\u7586\u57df\u6a2a\u4e98\u6574\u4e2a\u94f6\u6cb3\u7cfb\uff0c\u96c4\u8e1e2500\u4e07\u9897\u5b9a\u5c45\u884c\u661f\uff0c\u9996\u90fd\u6709\u7740\u8d85\u8fc7400\u4ebf\u4eba\u5b9a\u5c45\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76db\u6781\u4e00\u65f6\u3001\u98ce\u5934\u65e0\u4e24\u7684\u5b87\u5b99\u5e1d\u56fd\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5fc3\u7406\u53f2\u5b66<\/span> (Psychohistory)<\/span>\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u79cd\u878d\u5408\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4e07\u7269\u7edf\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u5b9e\u73b0\u5bf9\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4eba\u7c7b\u7fa4\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u7cbe\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u56e0\u6b64\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u5176\u8f89\u714c\u7684\u9876\u5cf0\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u662f\u79d1\u5e7b\uff01<\/span>
      <\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \u300a\u57fa\u5730\u300b\u7cfb\u5217\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8bf4<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/section>\n
      \u800c\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u5174\u5b66\u79d1\uff0c\u6b63\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7740\u8ffd\u5bfb\u5982\u540c\u5fc3\u7406\u53f2\u5b66\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u4e07\u7269\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u73b0\u5b9e\uff01\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u4e07\u7269\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5176\u6e0a\u6e90\u4e0e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u672c\u6e90\u601d\u60f3\u6709\u7740\u5bc6\u4e0d\u53ef\u5206\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      <\/section>\n

      \u7b2c\u8c37\uff0c\u5f00\u666e\u52d2\u4e0e\u725b\u987f<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/section>\n
      \u540c\u662f\u63a2\u5bfb\u4e8b\u7269\u8fd0\u884c\u666e\u904d\u89c4\u5f8b\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\uff0c\u4ece\u7b2c\u8c37\u7684\u661f\u8868\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u5f00\u666e\u52d2\u7684\u884c\u661f\u8fd0\u52a8\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u725b\u987f\u7684\u529b\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u81ea\u5e95\u800c\u4e0a\u63a2\u7d22\u7269\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7c7b\u6bd4\u4f5c\u4e00\u79cd\u5bf9\u201c\u786c\u4ef6\u201d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7c7b\u6bd4\u4e3a\u4e00\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\u201c\u8f6f\u4ef6\u201d\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\u3002\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u5c06\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ece\u8fd8\u539f\u8bba<\/span> (reductionism) <\/span>\u8f6c\u5411\u4e86\u6574\u4f53\u8bba<\/span> (holism)<\/span>\uff0c\u5c06\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u70b9\u4ece\u7269\u8d28\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u8f6c\u5411\u4e86\u7531\u7269\u8d28\u6784\u6210\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u63ed\u793a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u666e\u904d\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u201c\u5f00\u666e\u52d2\u5b9a\u5f8b\u201d\uff0c\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219<\/span> (scaling laws) <\/span>\u6700\u65e9\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b66\u8005Geoffrey West\u8fdb\u884c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5f53\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fdb\u884c\u89c4\u6a21\u7f29\u653e\u65f6\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u7684\u5bf9\u89c4\u6a21\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u5e42\u5f8b\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\u7684\u9002\u7528\u8303\u56f4\u6781\u4e3a\u5e7f\u6cdb\uff0c\u4ece\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u5230\u57ce\u5e02\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u5b83\u7684\u8eab\u5f71\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \u4ee5\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u514b\u83b1\u4f2f\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/span> (Kleiber’s law) <\/span>\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u8be5\u5b9a\u5f8b\u7684\u666e\u9002\u8303\u56f4\u60ca\u4eba\u5730\u56ca\u62ec\u4e86\u8de8\u8d8a27\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u751f\u7269\u4f53\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u751f\u7269\u4f53\u4ee3\u8c22\u7387\u4e0e\u4f53\u91cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5e42\u5f8b\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7cbe\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u6570\u5341\u79cd\u54fa\u4e73\u7c7b\u52a8\u7269\u7684\u751f\u957f\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      <\/section>\n

      \u514b\u83b1\u4f2f\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/section>\n
      \u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u57ce\u5e02\u89c4\u5212\u9886\u57df\u3002\u5c06\u89c4\u6a21\u6362\u505a\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u201c\u4ee3\u8c22\u7387\u201d\u7c7b\u6bd4\u4e3a\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c<\/span> (GDP) <\/span>\u540e\uff0c\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\u5c06\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u523b\u753b\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u751f\u957f\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u540c\u65f6\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e3a\u4f55\u201c\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u96c6\u805a\u673a\u4f1a\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      <\/section>\n

      \u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/section>\n
      \u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u589e\u957f\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u968f\u673a\u6027\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6548\u679c\u5e76\u4e0d\u7406\u60f3\u3002\u672c\u6b21\u8bb2\u5ea7\uff0c\u5f20\u6c5f\u8001\u5e08\u5e26\u6211\u4eec\u7a7f\u8d8a\u4f01\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/span> (stochastic)<\/span>\uff0c\u501f\u7531\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\u63a2\u7a76\u4f01\u4e1a\u751f\u957f\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/span> (deterministic)<\/span>\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u5458\u5de5\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u603b\u8d44\u4ea7<\/span> (total asset) <\/span>\u8fd9\u4e24\u7c7b\u5173\u952e\u89c4\u6a21\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\uff0c\u5f97\u4ee5\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u4f01\u4e1a\u89c4\u6a21\u751f\u957f<\/span> (growth) <\/span>\u7684\u5185\u5728\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u63d0\u4f9b\u65b0\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u548c\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/section>\n

      <\/section>\n
      \n
      <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n

      1. \u4f01\u4e1a\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

      \n

      <\/section>\n

      <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


      <\/p>\n

      \u4f01\u4e1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5176\u7279\u5f81\u548c\u8fd0\u4f5c\u673a\u5236\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u5546\u4e1a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u51e0\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u89c6\u89d2\u8fdb\u884c\u89c2\u5bdf\u548c\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4ece\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u4eba\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u4f53\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c6\u89d2\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u67b6\u6784\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c42\u7ea7\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u51b3\u7b56\u6548\u7387\u4e0a\u6709\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u800c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6241\u5e73\u5316\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u80fd\u6fc0\u53d1\u5458\u5de5\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u548c\u53c2\u4e0e\u611f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c6\u89d2\u7684\u6311\u6218\u5728\u4e8e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6587\u5316\u548c\u4eba\u9645\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u96be\u4ee5\u91cf\u5316\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5176\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u96be\u4ee5\u7528\u6570\u5b57\u7cbe\u786e\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      <\/section>\n

      \u4ece\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u5206\u6790\u516c\u53f8<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/section>\n
      \n
      Lera SC, Sornette D (2019) A theory of discrete hierarchies as optimal cost-adjusted productivity organisations. PLoS ONE 14(4): e0214911. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0214911<\/span><\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u89c6\u89d2\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8d22\u52a1\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u6d41<\/span> (Money Flow<\/span>) \u6765\u8003\u5bdf\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5229\u7528\u8d22\u52a1\u6570\u636e\u548c\u4f1a\u8ba1\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u5c06\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8fd0\u8425\u6d3b\u52a8\u91cf\u5316\u4e3a\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u7cbe\u786e\u63cf\u8ff0\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u51b5\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u5229\u6da6\u8868\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a<\/span> (Liabilities) <\/span>\u8868\u548c\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u91cf\u8868\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u72b6\u51b5\u548c\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      <\/section>\n

      \u4ece\u8d27\u5e01\u6d41\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u8003\u5bdf\u516c\u53f8<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/section>\n
      \u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u89c6\u89d2\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u5916\u90e8\u73af\u5883\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6807\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5c40\u52bf\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u73af\u5883\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u800c\u653f\u6cbb\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u7684\u7ecf\u8425\u73af\u5883\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      <\/section>\n

      \u4ece\u5916\u90e8\u73af\u5883\u51fa\u53d1\u89c2\u5bdf\u516c\u53f8<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \u7b2c\u56db\u4e2a\u89c6\u89d2\u5219\u7740\u773c\u4e8e\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u80a1\u6743\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5730\u4f4d\u548c\u8fd0\u8425\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u62e5\u6709\u5f3a\u5927\u4e14\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5c11\u6570\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u66f4\u5177\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u548c\u6297\u98ce\u9669\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      <\/section>\n

      \u4ece\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u7406\u89e3\u516c\u53f8<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6bcf\u79cd\u89c6\u89d2\u90fd\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u6d1e\u89c1\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7814\u7a76\u4ecd\u7136\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5355\u4e2a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u7fa4\u4f53\u6574\u4f53\u7279\u6027\u7684\u8003\u91cf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u7279\u5b9a\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u5177\u6709\u666e\u904d\u9002\u7528\u6027\u3002\u5f53\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u4e0d\u518d\u6267\u7740\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u8f6c\u5411\u5173\u6ce8\u4f01\u4e1a\u751f\u957f\u65f6\uff0c\u66f4\u5bcc\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u751f\u957f\u89c4\u5f8b\u4fbf\u5f00\u59cb\u6d6e\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/section>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/section>\n

      <\/section>\n
      \n
      <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n

      2. \u4f01\u4e1a\u4e2d\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u89c4\u5f8b<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

      \n

      <\/section>\n

      <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


      <\/p>\n

      \u5728\u672c\u6b21\u8bb2\u5ea7\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f20\u8001\u5e08\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u6d89\u53ca\u5927\u91cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u975e\u5e38\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u4f17\u591a\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u8d22\u52a1\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5018\u82e5\u4ec5\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u603b\u8d44\u91d1\u91cf\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u76f4\u63a5\u5bf9\u6bd4\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u6240\u5f97\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u4e0a\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u521d\u6b65\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u4eba\u89c9\u5f97\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u968f\u673a\u7684\u3001\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      <\/section>\n

      \u6df7\u6c8c\u6291\u6216\u662f\u6709\u5e8f\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/section>\n
      \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f20\u8001\u5e08\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u79cd\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u7528\u89c4\u6a21\u8fd9\u628a\u201c\u5c3a\u5b50\u201d\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u4f01\u4e1a\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6316\u6398\u666e\u9002\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u548c\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n

      2.1 \u9f50\u592b\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

      <\/section>\n
      \u9f50\u592b\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/span> (Zipf’s law)<\/span>\uff0c\u7531\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6George Kingsley Zipf\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u662f\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u6587\u672c\u65f6\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u4ed6\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bcd\u8bed\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u9891\u7387\u662f\u4e0d\u5747\u7b49\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u628a\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u8bcd\u8bed\u6309\u7167\u51fa\u73b0\u9891\u7387\u4ece\u9ad8\u5230\u4f4e\u6392\u5e8f\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff1a\u6700\u5e38\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u8bcd\u6c47\u6570\u91cf\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bcd\u9891\u5206\u5e03\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \u9f50\u592b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u751f\u957f\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5c06\u4f01\u4e1a\u6309\u7167\u96c7\u5458\u6570\u91cf\u4ece\u591a\u5230\u5c11\u6392\u5217\u5728\u6a2a\u5750\u6807\u4e0a\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7528\u7eb5\u5750\u6807\u8868\u793a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u96c7\u5458\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u5c55\u793a\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6a2a\u7eb5\u5750\u6807\u90fd\u53d6\u4e86\u5bf9\u6570\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5c31\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u4e24\u7ec4\u53cd\u6620\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u5c31\u4e1a\u5f02\u8d28\u6027<\/span> (heterogeneity)<\/span> \u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      <\/section>\n

      \u5e94\u7528\u9f50\u592b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u5206\u6790\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/section>\n
      \u8fd9\u4e9b\u66f2\u7ebf\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u659c\u7387\u8d8a\u9661\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u66f4\u52a0\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u5373\u5c11\u6570\u5927\u4f01\u4e1a\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u96c7\u5458\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u800c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a\u53ea\u80fd\u5206\u5230\u5f88\u5c11\u7684\u96c7\u5458<\/strong>\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fe\u8868\u4e2d\u4e0d\u96be\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u524d20%\u7684\u5927\u4f01\u4e1a\u62e5\u670991%\u7684\u5458\u5de5\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5927\u4f01\u4e1a\u5784\u65ad\u73b0\u8c61\u66f4\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u9075\u5faa\u7740\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u4e8c\u516b\u51c6\u5219\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5373\u524d20%\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u62e5\u6709\u5927\u7ea680%\u7684\u96c7\u5458\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \u8fd9\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u9f50\u592b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5229\u7528\u5458\u5de5\u6570\u91cf\u8fd9\u4e00\u5355\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u63ed\u793a\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5c31\u4e1a\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u5229\u7528\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u6240\u5728\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u6d01\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6d1e\u5bdf\u4f01\u4e1a\u7fa4\u4f53\u548c\u6574\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u8d8b\u52bf\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n

      2.2 \u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \u5728\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u4f01\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f20\u6c5f\u6559\u6388\u56e2\u961f\u8fd0\u7528\u4e86\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\u6765\u63a2\u7d22\u8425\u4e1a\u989d\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u5e74\u4efd\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u96c7\u5458\u6570\u91cf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6a2a\u8f74\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u603b\u9500\u552e\u989d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7eb5\u8f74\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6570\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u5f20\u53cd\u6620\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0a\u5e02\u4f01\u4e1a\u201c\u5458\u5de5\u6570-\u603b\u9500\u552e\u989d\u201d\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6563\u70b9\u56fe\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      <\/section>\n

      \u57fa\u4e8e\u96c7\u5458\u6570\u76ee\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/section>\n

      \u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u7528\u76f4\u7ebf\u62df\u5408\u540e\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u4e24\u6761\u5c55\u793a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4f01\u4e1a\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\u7684\u76f4\u7ebf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u62df\u5408\u76f4\u7ebf\u7684\u659c\u7387\u548c\u622a\u8ddd\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5206\u6790\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n