{"id":47718,"date":"2024-01-15T20:57:20","date_gmt":"2024-01-15T12:57:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=47718"},"modified":"2024-01-15T20:57:20","modified_gmt":"2024-01-15T12:57:20","slug":"%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e7%bb%88%e5%b1%80%e4%b9%8b%e6%88%98%ef%bc%9a%e6%8e%a2%e7%b4%a2%e7%81%be%e9%9a%be%e6%80%a7%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e6%83%85%e6%99%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=47718","title":{"rendered":"\u6c14\u5019\u7ec8\u5c40\u4e4b\u6218\uff1a\u63a2\u7d22\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u60c5\u666f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Luke Kemp , Chi Xu, Joanna Depledge, Timothy M. Lenton<\/span><\/span> | \u4f5c\u8005<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
\u5218\u57f9\u6e90<\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/span>| \u8bd1\u8005<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aClimate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2108146119<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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1. \u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

2. \u4e3a\u4f55\u63a2\u7d22\u6c14\u5019\u707e\u96be\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

3. \u6c14\u5019\u707e\u96be\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u6027
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5. \u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\u7684\u5173\u952e\u7814\u7a76<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

6. \u6c14\u5019\u7ec8\u5c40\u8bae\u7a0b\uff1a\u6781\u7aef\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u72b6\u6001\u3001\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u4e0e\u7efc\u5408\u6c14\u5019\u707e\u96be\u8bc4\u4f30
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7. \u5173\u4e8e\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684IPCC\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

8. \u7ed3\u8bba
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https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1029\/2022EF002876<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u6c14\u5019\u7ec8\u5c40\u201d<\/span>\uff08Climate Endgame\uff09<\/span>\u7814\u7a76\u8bae\u7a0b\u65e8\u5728\u5f15\u5bfc\u5bf9\u4eba\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6700\u6781\u7aef\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u63a2\u7d22<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u603b\u7ed3\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u9610\u8ff0\u4e3a\u4f55\u63a2\u7d22\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u5bf9\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u5b9a\u4e49\u5173\u952e\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u5e76\u89e3\u91ca\u7814\u7a76\u8bae\u7a0b\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u9762\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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1. \u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u300a\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6846\u67b6\u516c\u7ea6\u300b<\/span>\uff08UNFCCC\uff09<\/span>\u4e0b\u52aa\u529b\u4e8630\u5e74\uff0c\u5e76\u53d6\u5f97\u4e00\u4e9b\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u4eba\u4e3a\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53<\/span>\uff08greenhouse gas, GHG\uff09<\/span>\u6392\u653e\u4ecd\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u6700\u574f\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8f68\u8ff9\uff0c\u52302100\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u5c06\u4e0a\u53472.1\u00b0C-3.9\u00b0C[11]\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6240\u67092030\u5e74\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u4e3b\u8d21\u732e\u90fd\u5f97\u5230\u5168\u9762\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u52302100\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5c06\u5347\u6e292.4\u00b0C<\/span>\uff081.9\u00b0C-3.0\u00b0C\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5b9e\u73b0\u6240\u6709\u957f\u671f\u627f\u8bfa\u548c\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u624d\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u5347\u6e29\u964d\u81f32.1\u00b0C\uff081.7\u00b0C-2.6\u00b0C\uff09<\/strong>[12]\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e50\u89c2\u5047\u8bbe\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u8d70\u5411\u5371\u9669\u7684\u8f68\u9053\u3002\u81ea\u66f4\u65b0\u4e16<\/span>\uff08260\u4e07\u5e74\u524d\uff09<\/span>\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u8868\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6\u4ece\u672a\u6301\u7eed\u8d85\u8fc7\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u524d\u6e29\u5ea6\u76842\u00b0C\u4ee5\u4e0a[13]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5373\u4f7f\u4eba\u4e3a\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u5f88\u5feb\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5e76\u4e0d\u6392\u9664\u672a\u6765\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u9ad8\u6216\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u57282100\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u3002\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u5347\u9ad8[14]\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565<\/strong>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5317\u6781\u6c38\u4e45\u51bb\u571f\u878d\u5316\u91ca\u653e\u7532\u70f7\u548c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3[15]\uff0c\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u5730\u533a\u5f3a\u70c8\u5e72\u65f1\u548c\u706b\u707e\u5bfc\u81f4\u78b3\u635f\u5931[16]\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u81ea\u7136\u78b3\u6c47\u80fd\u529b\u51cf\u5f31\u7684\u963b\u5c3c\u53cd\u9988\u660e\u663e\u51cf\u7f13[17, 18]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0e\u5347\u6e29\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u6709\u65f6\u662f\u88ab\u5047\u8bbe\u4e3a\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6e29\u5ea6\u9608\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u7a81\u7136\u548c\/\u6216\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7684\u5730\u8d28\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e2d\u662f\u660e\u663e\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4f1a\u5728\u8026\u5408\u7684\u6c14\u5019-\u751f\u6001-\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94[19]\u3002\u7279\u522b\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u662f\u201c\u9608\u503c\u7ea7\u8054\u201d<\/span>\uff08tipping casca<\/span>de\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u591a\u4e2a\u9608\u503c\u8981\u7d20\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u89e6\u53d1\u4e00\u4e2a\u9608\u503c\u540e\uff0c\u89e6\u53d1\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u9608\u503c\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0[20]\u3002\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4eba\u4e3a\u6392\u653e\u8f68\u8ff9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4eba\u4e3a\u6392\u653e\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u51fa\u73b0\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u548c\u66f4\u9ad8\u6d53\u5ea6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u8026\u5408\u6a21\u5f0f\u6bd4\u8f83\u8ba1\u5212\u7b2c\u516d\u9636\u6bb5<\/span>\uff08CMIP6\uff09<\/span>\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u5f02\u6027\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u666f\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u91cd\u53e0\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u201c\u4e2d\u95f4\u8def\u7ebf\u201d\u60c5\u666f<\/span>\uff08\u5171\u4eab\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8def\u5f843-7.0\uff0c\u5373SSP3-7.0\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6700\u9ad8<\/span>\uff08\u767e\u5206\u4f4d75\uff09<\/span>\u7ed3\u679c\u6bd4\u6700\u9ad8\u6392\u653e<\/span>\uff08SSP5-8.5\uff09<\/span>\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u6700\u4f4e<\/span>\uff08\u767e\u5206\u4f4d25\uff09<\/span>\u7ed3\u679c\u8981\u70ed\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u533a\u57df\u6e29\u5dee\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d85\u8fc75\u00b0C\u81f36\u00b0C\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5404\u79cd\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u6781\u5730\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u751a\u81f3\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u53cd\u9988\u56de\u8def\u662f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u653e\u5927\u6210\u4e3a\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u201c\u6e29\u5ba4\u5730\u7403\u201d<\/span>\uff08Hothouse Earth\uff09<\/span>\u72b6\u6001[21]<\/span>\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7f13\u51b2\u7684\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u56de\u8def\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e91\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u4e0d\u8db3\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u7a81\u7136\u4e14\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696[22]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6548\u5e94\u4ecd\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u88ab\u53d1\u6398\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u672a\u88ab\u5145\u5206\u63a2\u7d22\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5927\u591a\u662f\u63a8\u6d4b\u6027\u7684\u201c\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053<\/strong>\u201d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c42\u79ef\u4e91\u5c42\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u63a5\u8fd1\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u672bCO2<\/sub><\/span>\u9884\u671f\u6d53\u5ea6\u4e0b\u7a81\u7136\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ea68\u00b0C\u989d\u5916\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696[23]\u3002\u5371\u9669\u610f\u5916\u60c5\u51b5\u5b58\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u4f18\u5148\u8003\u8651\u800c\u975e\u5ffd\u89c6\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6700\u8fd1\u5173\u4e8e\u5e73\u8861\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u6027\uff08equilibrium climate sensitivity, ECS\uff09<\/strong>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c[14, 24]\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u672a\u6765\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u6839\u636eIPCC\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9ECS\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4f30\u8ba1\u662f\uff0cCO2<\/sub><\/span>\u6d53\u5ea6\u6bcf\u7ffb\u4e00\u500d\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29\u5c06\u5347\u9ad83\u00b0C\uff0c\u5176\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u201d\u8303\u56f4<\/span>\uff0866%\u81f3100%\u6982\u7387\uff09<\/span>\u4e3a2.5\u00b0C\u81f34\u00b0C\u3002\u867d\u7136ECS\u4f4e\u4e8e1.5\u00b0C\u51e0\u4e4e\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u5728\u5916\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u670918%\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0cECS\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u4e8e4.5\u00b0C[14]\u3002ECS\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5448\u201c\u91cd\u5c3e\u201d\u5f62\u6001\uff0c\u9ad8ECS\u503c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5927\u4e8e\u4f4eECS\u503c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u4e3a\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e5f\u76f8\u5f53\u663e\u8457\u3002\u5728IPCC\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u662f\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u6d53\u5ea6\u8def\u5f848.5<\/span>\uff08RCP8.5\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u79f0\u4e3aSSP5-8.5\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0e\u8fc4\u4eca\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u51b5\u6700\u4e3a\u543b\u5408[25]\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u54cd\u5e94\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c[26]\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u9700\u4fdd\u6301\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7fRCP8.5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u589e\u52a035%[27]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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2. \u4e3a\u4f55\u63a2\u7d22\u6c14\u5019\u707e\u96be\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4e3a\u4f55\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u9700\u4e86\u89e3\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\uff1f\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u7a33\u59a5\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u90fd\u8981\u6c42\u6211\u4eec\u4e86\u89e3\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6700\u5c0f\u6700\u5927\u51c6\u5219<\/span>\uff08minimax criterion\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u6839\u636e\u6700\u574f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u8fdb\u884c\u6392\u5e8f[28]\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c24\u5176\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u548c\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u9886\u57df\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u6392\u653e\u8f68\u8ff9\u3001\u672a\u6765\u6d53\u5ea6\u3001\u672a\u6765\u5347\u6e29\u8fd8\u662f\u672a\u6765\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u90fd\u5145\u6ee1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5ba2\u89c2\u5730\u5206\u914d\u6982\u7387[29]\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u635f\u5bb3\u5c5e\u4e8e\u201c\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u8303\u7574\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3001\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u786e\u5207\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e43\u81f3\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3001\u65f6\u673a\u6216\u53ef\u53d6\u6027\uff0c\u5747\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5[30]\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8fd8\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u90fd\u5e94\u5f15\u53d1\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8b66\u89c9\u548c\u9884\u9632\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u81ea\u6ee1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u6784\u5efa\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u53cd\u5e94\u5177\u6709\u6df1\u8fdc\u610f\u4e49[31, 32]\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u5347\u6e29\u53ca\u5176\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u7684\u635f\u5bb3\u53ef\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bf9\u78b3\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u9884\u6d4b[31]\u3002\u4e86\u89e3\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u548c\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u63d0\u4f9b\u6307\u5bfc\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u8303\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5371\u673a\u3002\u5173\u952e\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6307\u6807\u53ef\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9884\u8b66\u4fe1\u53f7[33]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4e86\u89e3\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u80fd\u6fc0\u53d1\u4eba\u4eec\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5c31\u5982\u540c1983\u5e74\u201c\u6838\u51ac\u5929\u201d\u7684\u89c2\u5ff5\u66fe\u5f15\u53d1\u516c\u4f17\u8b66\u89c9\u548c\u6838\u88c1\u519b\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u4e25\u91cd\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u66f4\u9ad8\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u80fd\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u91cd\u65b0\u575a\u5b881.5\u00b0C\u81f32\u00b0C\u7684\u9632\u62a4\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u6240\u6709\u9009\u62e9\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8def\u5f84\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u201c\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u597d\u201d\u7684\u65b9\u5411[34]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7406\u89e3\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u60c5\u666f\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u653f\u7b56\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u8fd8\u6d89\u53ca\u4e00\u4e9b\u7d27\u6025\u7684\u6700\u540e\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u5982\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u7ba1\u7406<\/span>\uff08SRM\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5411\u5e73\u6d41\u5c42\u6ce8\u5165\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u4ee5\u53cd\u5c04\u9633\u5149\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5[35]\u3002\u91c7\u53d6\u6b64\u7c7b\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u7ba1\u7406\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7279\u5f81\u6709\u5173\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5e73\u6d41\u5c42\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u6ce8\u5165<\/span>\uff08SAI\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u707e\u96be\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u76f4\u63a5\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u5c1a\u672a\u5f97\u5230\u5145\u5206\u7814\u7a76[36]\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5371\u9669\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6e90\u4e8e\u201c\u7ec8\u6b62\u51b2\u51fb\u201d\uff1a\u5982\u679cSAI\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d7\u5230\u5e72\u6270\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7a81\u7136\u800c\u8fc5\u901f\u5730\u5347\u6e29\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cSAI\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u5e03\uff1a\u867d\u7136\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f18\u4e8e\u5176\u6240\u62b5\u6d88\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u5347\u6e29\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e25\u91cd[36]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u91c7\u53d6\u5176\u4ed6\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5236\u5b9a\u4e00\u9879\u540d\u4e3a\u201c\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u6761\u7ea6\u201d\u7684\u534f\u8bae\uff1a\u4e00\u65e6\u6f5c\u5728\u7a81\u53d1\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9884\u8b66\u6307\u6807\u88ab\u89e6\u53d1\uff0c\u8be5\u534f\u8bae\u6216\u6761\u7ea6\u5c06\u542f\u52a8\u66f4\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u548c\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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3. \u6c14\u5019\u707e\u96be\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u707e\u96be\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5a01\u80c1\u6709\u56db\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u8b66\u793a\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316<\/span>\uff08\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u533a\u57df\u6027\u8fd8\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u6216\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\u90fd\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528[37]\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5bd2\u6b66\u7eaa\u4ee5\u6765\u5730\u7403\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u4e94\u6b21\u5927\u706d\u7edd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u90fd\u6709\u6240\u4f53\u73b0[38]\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u6b63\u5728\u4ee5\u7a7a\u524d\u7684\u5730\u8d28\u901f\u5ea6\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5230\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8fc7\u89e6\u53d1\u4ee5\u5f80\u5927\u706d\u7edd\u7684\u9608\u503c[39, 40]\u3002IPCC\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u523022\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u6e29\u5ea6\u5c06\u56de\u5230\u65e9\u59cb\u65b0\u4e16\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u5185\u9006\u8f6c\u4e865000\u4e07\u5e74\u7684\u5bd2\u51b7\u6c14\u5019\u8d8b\u52bf[41]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u5c24\u5176\u5f15\u4eba\u8b66\u89c9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u662f\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\u4e2d\u9010\u6e10\u9002\u5e94\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u3002\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u519c\u4e1a\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u59cb\u4e8e\u7ea612000\u5e74\u524d\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u7a33\u5b9a\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u5f62\u6210[42]\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ed\u7a84\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u5747\u6e29\u7ea6\u4e3a13\u00b0C\u3002\u76f4\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u751f\u4ea7\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4f9d\u7136\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u533a\u95f4[43]\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u6548\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8d85\u51fa\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u89e6\u53d1\u5176\u4ed6\u707e\u96be\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u52a0\u5267\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u548c\u6ea2\u51fa\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u653e\u5927\u5668\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u5267\u5404\u79cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u5f15\u53d1\u591a\u91cd\u95f4\u63a5\u538b\u529b<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\u3001\u571f\u5730\u6d41\u5931\u3001\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u98df\u54c1\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u538b\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u6c47\u805a\u6210\u7cfb\u7edf\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u540c\u6b65\u6545\u969c\u3002\u8fd9\u4fbf\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8d70\u5411\u3002\u5168\u7403\u5371\u673a\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u5f3a\u5316\u7684\u201c\u540c\u6b65\u6545\u969c\u201d\u5728\u5404\u56fd\u548c\u5404\u7cfb\u7edf\u95f4\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf2007-2008\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a[44]\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u89e6\u53d1\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6545\u969c\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u74e6\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5371\u9669\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\uff1a\u5728\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u9010\u6e10\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6700\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u793e\u533a\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u906d\u53d7\u6700\u6c89\u91cd\u7684\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u52a0\u5267\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u56fe1\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6781\u7aef\u5e74\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08MAT\uff09<\/span>\u8d85\u8fc729\u00b0C\u7684\u5730\u533a\u7684\u4ea4\u96c6<\/span>\uff08\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u76ee\u524d\u4ec5\u5360\u5730\u7403\u9646\u5730\u9762\u79ef\u76840.8%\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4e2d\u9ad8\u6392\u653e\u548c\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u7684\u60c5\u666f<\/span>\uff08SSP3-7.0\u6392\u653e\u548cSSP3\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u52302070\u5e74\uff0c\u5927\u7ea6\u5c06\u670920\u4ebf\u4eba\u5c45\u4f4f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u5730\u533a\u3002\u800c\u73b0\u4eca\uff0c\u4ec5\u67093000\u4e07\u4eba\u5c45\u4f4f\u5728\u9ad8\u6e29\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u5e03\u5728\u6492\u54c8\u62c9\u6c99\u6f20\u548c\u6d77\u6e7e\u6cbf\u5cb8[43]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/p>\n

\u56fe1 \u672a\u6765\u4eba\u53e3\u5206\u5e03\u4e0e\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u91cd\u53e0\u3002\u4f7f\u7528CMIP6\u6a21\u578b\u6570\u636e[\u6765\u81eaWorldClim\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e2d\u7684\u4e5d\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b[45]\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u5728SSP3-7.0\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u7ea6\u57282070\u5e74\uff082060-2080\u5e74\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u5171\u4eab\u7684SSP3\u4eba\u53e3\u9884\u6d4b\u5230\u5927\u7ea62070\u5e74[46]\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u6e29\u5ea6\uff08MAT\uff09\u3002\u9634\u5f71\u533a\u57df\u8868\u793aMAT\u8d85\u8fc729\u00b0C\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u800c\u5f69\u8272\u5730\u5f62\u5219\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u65e0\u53ef\u633d\u56de\u5730\u635f\u5bb3\u4eba\u7c7b\u4ece\u5176\u4ed6\u707e\u96be<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u6838\u6218\u4e89\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u6062\u590d\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08\u89c1\u88681\uff09<\/span>\uff1a\u5728\u7a33\u5b9a\u65f6\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5728\u707e\u96be\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u548c\u6062\u590d\u9636\u6bb5\u53ef\u80fd\u53d8\u5f97\u6781\u4e3a\u4e25\u91cd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u707e\u96be\u6027\u5173\u5207\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u7684\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u7efc\u5408\u8003\u8651\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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4. \u5b9a\u4e49\u5173\u952e\u672f\u8bed<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u79d1\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u5bf9\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5c1a\u672a\u5145\u5206\u63a2\u8ba8\uff0c\u4f46\u5c06\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u707e\u96be\u6027\u201d\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u5e76\u4e0d\u5c11\u89c1\u3002\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u79d8\u4e66\u957f\u5b89\u4e1c\u5c3c\u5965\u00b7\u53e4\u7279\u96f7\u65af\u5c06\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u751f\u5b58\u5a01\u80c1\u201d\u3002\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u6e29\u5ea6\u5347\u9ad8\u8d85\u8fc75\u00b0C\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u201c\u8d85\u51fa\u707e\u96be\u7684\u8303\u7574\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u5347\u9ad8\u8d85\u8fc76\u00b0C\u5219\u6784\u6210\u201c\u65e0\u53ef\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u5168\u7403\u707e\u96be\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5f53\u524d\u5173\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u707e\u96be\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u53d7\u5230\u672f\u8bed\u4e0d\u660e\u786e\u7684\u524a\u5f31\u3002\u672f\u8bed\u201c\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u201d<\/span>\uff08atastrophic climate change\uff09<\/span>\u5e76\u672a\u88ab\u660e\u786e\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u5b58\u5728\u6027\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08existential risk\uff09<\/span>\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u957f\u671f\u4eba\u7c7b\u6f5c\u529b\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u548c\u91cd\u5927\u635f\u5931\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5f53\u524d\u5b9a\u4e49\u6df1\u5177\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u793e\u4f1a\u8ba8\u8bba\u548c\u660e\u786e\u957f\u671f\u4eba\u7c7b\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6c11\u4e3b\u63a2\u7d22\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u662f\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u7406\u89e3\u4eba\u7c7b\u707e\u96be\u6216\u706d\u7edd\u9014\u5f84\u6240\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u5b9a\u4e49\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u63a2\u7a76\u7684\u575a\u5b9e\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u88681\u4e2d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u672f\u8bed\u7684\u660e\u786e\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e3a\u521b\u5efa\u5168\u7403\u707e\u96be\u8bcd\u6c47\u8868\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6784\u6210\u201c\u5408\u7406\u201d\u98ce\u9669\u6216\u201c\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u8005\u201d\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5fc5\u7136\u662f\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4ee5\u5168\u7403\u4eba\u53e3\u768410%\u621625%\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9608\u503c\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4efb\u610f\u7684<\/span>\uff0810%\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u6709\u5148\u4f8b\u7684\u635f\u5931\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\uff0c25%\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u51cf\u5c11<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6765\u7cbe\u786e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u5168\u7403\u707e\u96be\u548c\u51cf\u5458\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u9608\u503c\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u542f\u793a\u6027\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u6570\u503c\u754c\u9650\u3002\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u53d1\u75c5\u7387\u3001\u6587\u5316\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u201c\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u6216\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u9020\u6210\u7684\u4e0d\u5229\u540e\u679c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5728\u300a\u6c14\u5019\u7ec8\u5c40\u300b\u8bae\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7279\u522b\u5173\u6ce8\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u7531\u56db\u4e2a\u8981\u7d20\u6784\u6210\uff1a\u5371\u9669\u3001\u66b4\u9732\u3001\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u548c\u54cd\u5e94[3]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u8fbe\u52303\u00b0C\u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u9009\u62e9\u57fa\u4e8e\u56db\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\uff1a\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u8fdc\u8d85\u56fd\u9645\u5171\u8bc6\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\uff0cIPCC\u5bf92\u00b0C\u52303\u00b0C\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u6240\u6709\u201c\u5173\u5207\u56e0\u7d20\u201d\u5747\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u201c\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u6216\u201c\u6781\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u201d\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u6709\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u5f3a\u5316\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5c06\u6e29\u5347\u9650\u5236\u57283\u00b0C\u5185\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\uff1b\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5347\u6e29\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0e\u5bf9\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5173\u8054\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u672f\u8bed<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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\u6f5c\u5728\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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\u98ce\u9669\u7ea7\u8054<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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\u7cfb\u7edf\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u6216\u6545\u969c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u6545\u969c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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\u52302100\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53473\u00b0C\u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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\u706d\u7edd\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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\u706d\u7edd\u5a01\u80c1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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\u5bf9\u603b\u706d\u7edd\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e14\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u8005\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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\u793e\u4f1a\u8106\u5f31\u6027<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

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\n

\u793e\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u663e\u8457\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u88c2\u548c\/\u6216\u56fd\u5bb6\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u5bf9\u8fc5\u901f\u3001\u6301\u4e45\u548c\u663e\u8457\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u635f\u5931\uff1b\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u548c\u53d1\u75c5\u7387\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u5168\u7403\u707e\u96be\u6027\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff08\u5e74\u6216\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4eba\u53e3\u635f\u593125%\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u5173\u952e\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08\u5982\u98df\u54c1\uff09\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7834\u574f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u5168\u7403\u707e\u96be\u6027\u5a01\u80c1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5168\u7403\u707e\u96be\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e14\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff1b\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u707e\u96be\u6027\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u4ee5\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u5168\u7403\u706d\u7edd\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff08\u5e74\u6216\u5341\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4eba\u53e3\u635f\u593110%\uff08\u6216\u66f4\u591a\uff09\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u5173\u952e\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08\u5982\u98df\u54c1\uff09\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7834\u574f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u5168\u7403\u6bc1\u706d\u5a01\u80c1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5168\u7403\u706d\u7edd\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e14\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u7ec8\u5c40\u9636\u6bb5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u88ab\u5224\u65ad\u4e3a\u8db3\u591f\u53ef\u80fd\u6784\u6210\u706d\u7edd\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u6c34\u5e73\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u5347\u6e29<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u7ecf\u9a8c\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u53ef\u884c\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u88681 \u300a\u6c14\u5019\u7ec8\u5c40\u300b\u8bae\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u5173\u952e\u672f\u8bed<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

5. \u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\u7684\u5173\u952e\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/section>\n

\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u63a2\u8ba8\u6216\u5168\u9762\u89e3\u91ca\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5982\u4f55\u5bfc\u81f4\u4eba\u7c7b\u706d\u7edd\u6216\u5168\u7403\u707e\u96be\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u5982\u300a\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u5730\u7403\u300b[53]\u548c\u300a\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6700\u540e\u8b66\u544a\u300b[10]\u7b49\u79d1\u666e\u56fe\u4e66\u3002\u540e\u8005\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0b\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7efc\u8ff0\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53476\u00b0C\u201c\u751a\u81f3\u5371\u53ca\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u201d[10]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n


<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

6. \u6c14\u5019\u7ec8\u5c40\u8bae\u7a0b\uff1a<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong>\u6781\u7aef\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u72b6\u6001\u3001<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u4e0e\u7efc\u5408\u6c14\u5019\u707e\u96be\u8bc4\u4f30<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bae\u7a0b\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u5173\u6ce8\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56db\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u5411\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
    \n
  • \n
    \u957f\u671f\u7406\u89e3\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\uff1b<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    \u63a2\u8ba8\u6c14\u5019\u89e6\u53d1\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u53d1\u75c5\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u9014\u5f84\uff1b<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    \u8c03\u67e5\u793e\u4f1a\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff1a\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u5c42\u53e0\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u54cd\u5e94\uff1b<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n

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    <\/p>\n

    \u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bae\u7a0b\u501f\u9274\u5e76\u6784\u5efa\u4e8e\u6b63\u5728\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u8bc4\u4f30\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5371\u5bb3\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9[58-60]\uff0c\u5176\u6548\u679c\u4ece\u670910%\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u4f7f\u78b3\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u7ffb\u500d[61]\uff0c\u5230\u6700\u4f18\u78b3\u4ef7\u683c\u589e\u52a08\u500d[60]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0e\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u76f8\u547c\u5e94\uff0c\u5373\u798f\u5229\u4f30\u8ba1\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669[31]\u3002\u8bf8\u5982\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u3001\u5916\u751f\u589e\u957f\u7387\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u548c\u635f\u5bb3\u51fd\u6570\u7b49\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u4e5f\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

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    <\/p>\n

    \u6781\u7aef\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u72b6\u6001<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u7a76\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0b\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u957f\u671f\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9700\u8981\u63cf\u7ed8\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u201c\u6e29\u5ba4\u5730\u7403\u201d\u573a\u666f[21]\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u6781\u7aef\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u5982\u66ff\u4ee3\u7684\u73af\u6d41\u6a21\u5f0f\u6216\u51b0\u76d6\u548c\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u9700\u8981\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u957f\u671f\u6c14\u5019\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u661f\u7ea7\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u706d\u7edd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u53ef\u80fd\u8d8a\u8fc7\u7684\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u4e2d\u7684\u9608\u503c\u6548\u5e94\u800c\u53d1\u751f[40, 63]\u3002\u4ee5\u5f80\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u706d\u7edd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6d77\u6d0b\u7f3a\u6c27\u548c\u65e0\u6c27\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u957f\u671f\u5185\u52a0\u5267[40, 64]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u7814\u7a76\u751f\u6001\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u7684\u201c\u5df2\u786e\u5b9a\u201d\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5357\u6781\u51b0\u76d6\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u663e\u793a\u5b58\u5728\u51e0\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6ede\u540e\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9[65]\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7ea62\u00b0C\u65f6\u4f1a\u89e6\u53d1\u897f\u5357\u6781\u51b0\u76d6\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6e29\u5ea6\u6062\u590d\u5230\u73b0\u4eca\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u91cd\u65b0\u83b7\u5f97\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u51b0\u76d6\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u5f53\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53476\u00b0C\u81f39\u00b0C\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u4e1c\u5357\u6781\u51b0\u76d6\u7684\u7f13\u6162\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\u8d85\u8fc740\u7c73[65]\u3002\u5bf9\u683c\u9675\u5170\u51b0\u76d6\u3001\u6c38\u4e45\u51bb\u571f\u548c\u9646\u5730\u690d\u88ab\u7b49\u533a\u57df\u7684\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u5c06\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u8bc6\u522b\u6240\u6709\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e34\u754c\u5143\u7d20\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u3002\u8fd9\u5e94\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u5c06\u5f71\u54cd\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u884c\u661f\u8fb9\u754c\u7684\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027[66]\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d85\u8d8a\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u548c\u4e34\u754c\u5143\u7d20\u5982\u4f55\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u7528[67]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u75be\u75c5\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u5c3d\u7ba1\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u75be\u75c5\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u6f5c\u5728\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f46\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u201c\u672b\u65e5\u56db\u9a91\u58eb\u201d\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u662f\u9965\u8352\u548c\u8425\u517b\u4e0d\u826f\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u6218\u4e89\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u866b\u5a92\u4f20\u64ad\u75be\u75c5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u5c06\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u7a7a\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3\u548c\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\u7b49\u989d\u5916\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u800c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6076\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u8fd9\u4e9b\u6f14\u53d8\u8def\u5f84\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u63a2\u7d22\u3002\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56e0\u70ed\u5e94\u6fc0\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4f30\u8ba1\u88ab\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86[68]\u3002\u5bf91985\u5e74\u81f32013\u5e74<\/span>\uff08\u5e76\u5bf92017\u5e74\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\u56de\u987e\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6587\u732e\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u7efc\u8ff0\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u57282143\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709189\u7bc7<\/span>\uff089%\uff09<\/span>\u4e13\u95e8\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u66f4\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u5f71\u54cd\u6216\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u4e0e\u8fc1\u79fb\u3001\u9965\u8352\u6216\u51b2\u7a81\u6709\u5173\uff09<\/span>[69]\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u5f88\u5c11\u5305\u62ec\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u54cd\u5e94\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u603b\u4f53\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4f30\u8ba1\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u5982\u4f55\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u4f30\u7b97\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u75be\u75c5\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff1f1\uff09\u901a\u8fc7\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u5efa\u6a21\u6765\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u5408\u98ce\u9669[70]\uff0c\u5e76\u4e25\u683c\u8fdb\u884c\u5e94\u6025\u51c6\u5907\u7684\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5[71]\u30022\uff09\u5c06\u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u66f4\u9ad8\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u573a\u666f\u548c\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u30023\uff09\u5c06\u98ce\u9669\u7ea7\u8054\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\u4e0b\u4e00\u8282\uff09<\/span>\u6574\u5408\u5230\u5065\u5eb7\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7eb3\u5165\u7531\u6c14\u5019\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u51b2\u51fb\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u75be\u75c5\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u793e\u4f1a\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff1a\u6613\u635f\u6027\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u7ea7\u8054\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u5e94\u5bf9<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u66f4\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u901a\u5e38\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5305\u62ec\u5371\u9669\u3001\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u548c\u66b4\u9732\uff0c\u8fd8\u6d89\u53ca\u54cd\u5e94[3, 72]\u3002\u5168\u9762\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u9700\u8003\u8651\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u66b4\u9732\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8de8\u56fd\u754c\u548c\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u6548\u5e94[73]\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5371\u673a\u3002\u5728\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u9aa8\u724c\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u6216\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u6076\u6027\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u4f7f\u521d\u59cb\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u65ad\u6076\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u793e\u4f1a\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u6d89\u53ca\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u53d8\u9769\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u5df2\u6709\u79cd\u65cf\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u5730\u533a[74, 75]\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u548c\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u4eba\u517d\u5171\u60a3\u75c5\u7684\u6269\u6563\u548c\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6[76]\uff0c\u4e3a\u65b0\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u548c\u611f\u67d3\u521b\u9020\u6761\u4ef6[6, 77]\u3002\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u8fde\u9501\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5982COVID-19\u6240\u8868\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u751f\u6001\u538b\u529b\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u7684\u66b4\u9732\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u793e\u4f1a\u6587\u5316\u201c\u4e25\u683c\u6027\u201d<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u6267\u884c\u3001\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u575a\u6301\u548c\u60e9\u7f5a\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20[78]\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u5c3e\u90e8\u6781\u7aef\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8f83\u5c11\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u53ef\u4ee5\u501f\u9274\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6765\u63a2\u8ba8\u793e\u4f1a\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u533a\u57df\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u8fc7\u53bb\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u751a\u81f3\u5d29\u6e83\u6709\u5173[79, 80]\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u548c\u4e34\u754c\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u7684\u5230\u6765\u3002\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5728\u5d29\u6e83\u4e4b\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e34\u754c\u51cf\u901f\u73b0\u8c61[81, 82]\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ece\u524d\u73b0\u4ee3\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\u9700\u8c28\u614e\u3002\u5e94\u7814\u7a76\u53f2\u524d\u548c\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u786e\u5b9a\u8fc7\u53bb\u793e\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u53d7\u5230\u7279\u5b9a\u6c14\u5019\u707e\u5bb3\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u5982\u4f55\u968f\u7740\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u3001\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u548c\u6cbb\u7406\u4f53\u5236\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u5c06\u4f7f\u8fc7\u53bb\u548c\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u80fd\u591f\u7eb3\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4f53\u7cfb[37]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u53ef\u4ee5\u501f\u9274\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6765\u63a2\u8ba8\u793e\u4f1a\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u533a\u57df\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u8fc7\u53bb\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u751a\u81f3\u5d29\u6e83\u6709\u5173[79, 80]\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u4e0b\u964d\u548c\u4e34\u754c\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5728\u5d29\u6e83\u4e4b\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e34\u754c\u51cf\u901f\u73b0\u8c61[81, 82]\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ece\u524d\u73b0\u4ee3\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\u9700\u8c28\u614e\u3002\u5e94\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u53f2\u524d\u548c\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u8fc7\u53bb\u793e\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u53d7\u5230\u7279\u5b9a\u6c14\u5019\u707e\u5bb3\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u4e86\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u5982\u4f55\u968f\u7740\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u3001\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u548c\u6cbb\u7406\u4f53\u5236\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u5c06\u4f7f\u8fc7\u53bb\u548c\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u80fd\u591f\u7eb3\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4f53\u7cfb[37]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u73b0\u4ee3\u5168\u7403\u5316\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7279\u8d28\u548c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u793e\u4f1a\u654f\u611f\u6027\u65f6\u4e88\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u8fd0\u8f93\u5206\u914d\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u521b\u4f24\u7684\u7f13\u51b2\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e9e\u5927\u3001\u4e92\u8054\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5f53\u7f51\u7edc\u76f8\u5bf9\u540c\u8d28\u5316\uff0c\u4e14\u5c11\u6570\u67a2\u7ebd\u8282\u70b9\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u8282\u70b9\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u8fde\u65f6[83]\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u91cd\u8981\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u9519\u8bef\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u865a\u5047\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u8fc5\u901f\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8ba4\u77e5\u98ce\u9669\u5bf9\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u5371\u673a[84]\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5e76\u5df2\u7ecf\u59a8\u788d\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u56fe3\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u7ea7\u8054\u53ef\u80fd\u5982\u4f55\u5c55\u5f00\u7684\u9ad8\u5c42\u6b21\u548c\u7b80\u5316\u63cf\u7ed8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \u56fe3 \u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u8fde\u9501\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u5faa\u73af\u56fe\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u7ebf\u4ee3\u8868\u6b63\u6781\u6027\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u653e\u5927\u53cd\u9988\uff1b\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5728\u6807\u51c6\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u662f\u79ef\u6781\u7684\uff09\uff0c\u865a\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u8d1f\u6781\u6027\uff08\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6291\u5236\u53cd\u9988\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u7efc\u5408\u707e\u96be\u8bc4\u4f30<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5c06\u5728\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6280\u672f\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u5c55\u5f00\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u201c\u6e29\u6696\u6218\u4e89\u201d\u2014\u2014\u901a\u8fc7\u6280\u672f\u589e\u5f3a\u7684\u5927\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u4e8e\u51cf\u5c11\u78b3\u9884\u7b97\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\u6216SRM\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u4ee5\u5168\u9762\u4e86\u89e3\u6c14\u5019\u5371\u9669\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u5267\u5176\u4ed6\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u52a0\u5267\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u538b\u529b\u3001\u865a\u5047\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u65b0\u578b\u7834\u574f\u6027\u6b66\u5668\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u661f\u8fb9\u754c\u7684\u8d85\u8d8a[85]\u3002\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u81ea\u7136\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5982\u592a\u9633\u8000\u6591\u548c\u9ad8\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u706b\u5c71\u55b7\u53d1\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u540c\u6b65\u6027[86]\u3002\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u4e9b\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u201c\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u707e\u96be\u60c5\u666f\u201d\u5c06\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u4e13\u5bb6\u8be2\u95ee\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ed8\u56fe\u548c\u53c2\u4e0e\u5f0f\u573a\u666f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7406\u89e3\u6b64\u7c7b\u7ea7\u8054\u7684\u6709\u524d\u666f\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5[73]\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u8fd8\u5b58\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u73b0\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u8bae\u7a0b[87]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u6574\u5408\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u591a\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5143\u5206\u6790\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7efc\u5408\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7ed8\u5236\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u7528\u6570\u636e\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u56e0\u679c\u6620\u5c04\u3001\u4e13\u5bb6\u8be2\u95ee\u4ee5\u53ca\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u6216\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u6001\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u5b8c\u6210\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u9879\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\u524d41\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b0\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u7ed8\u5236\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u7cae\u98df\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u3001\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\uff09<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u57fa\u7840[88]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u522b\u6709\u6f5c\u529b\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u91cd\u65b0\u5229\u7528\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7ea7\u8054\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u7684\u707e\u96be\u573a\u666f\u8fdb\u884c\u201c\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u4f30\u8ba1\u54ea\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34\u5173\u952e\u6027\u7684\u77ed\u7f3a\u6216\u4e2d\u65ad\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u91c7\u53d6\u5267\u70c8\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5982\u98df\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u7981\u4ee4\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u4f8b\u59822007-2008\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a[89]\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cd\u65b0\u7528\u4e8e\u63a2\u8ba8\u672a\u6765\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u5404\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\uff1b\u5b83\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4ece\u5730\u533a\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u9010\u7ea7\u6269\u5c55\u3002\u867d\u7136\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7814\u7a76\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u5408\u5730\u533a\u635f\u5931\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u5fc5\u4e0d\u53ef\u5c11\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u707e\u96be\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u96be\u4ee5\u91cf\u5316\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4efb\u4f55\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u5e94\u589e\u8fdb\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u98ce\u9669\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u4f9b\u7c97\u7565\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6307\u5bfc\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u8bba\u8bc1\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u5960\u5b9a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u8bc4\u4f30\u707e\u96be\u6027\u540e\u679c\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u6027[90]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e94\u7eb3\u5165\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u3001\u5ba1\u8bae\u6027\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5e73\u3001\u5305\u5bb9\u548c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u9014\u5f84[91]\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u501f\u9274\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6700\u5c0f\u6700\u5927\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6309\u7167\u5176\u6700\u4f73\u548c\u6700\u5dee\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u52a0\u6743\u548c\u5bf9\u51b3\u7b56\u8fdb\u884c\u6392\u5e8f\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u8fbe\u65af\u53e4\u666e\u5854\u5bf9\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u5ba1\u67e5\u6240\u5efa\u8bae\u7684[92]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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    <\/section>\n

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    <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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    7. \u5173\u4e8e\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684IPCC\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    <\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


    <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    IPCC\u5c1a\u672a\u805a\u7126\u5173\u6ce8\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5df2\u53d1\u5e03\u4e8614\u4efd\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4f46\u5747\u672a\u6d89\u53ca\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u6216\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u7b2c\u4e03\u6b21IPCC\u8bc4\u4f30\u5468\u671f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u201d\u7684\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5efa\u8bae\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6240\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7ef4\u5ea6\u3002\u9274\u4e8eIPCC\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u6846\u67b6[93]\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u624d\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a2\u8ba8\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u53cd\u9988\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u53d8\u6e29\u5ea6\u8f68\u8ff9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u5426\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u4e00\u4efd\u5173\u4e8e\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u300a\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u66961.5\u00b0C\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u300b[94]\u6240\u505a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u3002\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u8fd8\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u516c\u4f17\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8f83\u4f4e\u6e29\u5ea6\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u5f71\u54cd\u4e25\u91cd\u6027\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u4eba\u4eec\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u5728\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6709\u591a\u5927\u3002\u5bf9\u707e\u96be\u6027\u548c\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ecf\u8d39\uff0c\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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    82. M. Scheffer, Anticipating societal collapse; Hints from the Stone Age. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 113, 10733\u201310735 (2016).<\/span><\/o:p><\/p>\n

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    <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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    \uff08\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u53ef\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52a8<\/strong>\u67e5\u770b\uff09<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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    \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \n


    <\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \u4ece\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u6781\u7aef\u70ed\u6d6a\uff0c\u5230\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u6d2a\u707e\uff0c\u4ece\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u68ee\u6797\u5927\u706b\uff0c\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u6cb3\u5357\u7684\u7279\u5927\u66b4\u96e8\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u5e38\u6001\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6b63\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u80fd\u611f\u77e5\u7684\u6001\u52bf\u53d1\u751f\u7740\u30022021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u88ab\u6388\u4e88\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\uff0c\u201c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5efa\u6a21\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u53ef\u9760\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u201d\uff0c\u8868\u8fbe\u4e86\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u5173\u5207\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c6\u89d2\u7814\u7a76\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u73af\u5883\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/span>
    <\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u91cd\u70b9\u63a2\u8ba8\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7b49\u5b66\u79d1\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u4e0e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u5171\u8bfb\u524d\u6cbf\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u79d1\u7814\u7075\u611f\u3002\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5df2\u5b8c\u7ed3\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u62a5\u540d\u53ef\u52a0\u5165\u793e\u7fa4\u5e76\u89e3\u9501\u56de\u653e<\/span>\u89c6\u9891\u6743\u9650\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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    \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

    1. <\/strong>\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u9065\u76f8\u5173\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u4e8b\u4ef6\u540c\u6b65\uff0c\u6d41\u6d6a\u5730\u7403\u79bb\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u8fdc\u5417\uff1f<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
    2.<\/strong> \u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0e\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
    3. <\/strong><\/strong>\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\uff1a\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u8bfa\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u8c08\u8d77<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
    4. <\/strong><\/strong><\/span>\u5f20\u6c5f\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u57fa\u7840\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u53ef\u5fae\u5206\u7f16\u7a0b\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406 | \u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\u5168\u65b0\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
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    5.<\/strong><\/strong> \u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56edVIP\uff0c\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u83b7\u53d6\u96c6\u667a\u5e73\u53f0\u6240\u6709\u5185\u5bb9\u8d44\u6e90<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
    6. <\/strong>\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/section>\n


    <\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

    <\/mp-style-type><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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