{"id":49036,"date":"2024-03-20T20:24:30","date_gmt":"2024-03-20T12:24:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=49036"},"modified":"2024-03-20T20:24:30","modified_gmt":"2024-03-20T12:24:30","slug":"%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e3%80%81%e8%87%aa%e7%bb%84%e7%bb%87%e4%b8%8e%e6%b6%8c%e7%8e%b0%ef%bc%9a%e4%bb%8e%e4%bb%a3%e7%90%86%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e5%88%b0%e9%98%b4%e9%98%b3%e5%93%b2%e5%ad%a6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=49036","title":{"rendered":"\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0e\u6d8c\u73b0\uff1a\u4ece\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5230\u9634\u9633\u54f2\u5b66"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u672c\u6587\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\uff08delegated causality\uff09\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5fae\u5999\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u5e72\u9884\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5bf9\u5076\u3002\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u63ed\u793a\u51fa\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u201c\u6df7\u6c8c\u8fb9\u7f18\u201d\u5904\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u9610\u660e\u4e86\u5411\u4e0b\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u4e0e\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5907\u5b9a\u7406\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u8fd8\u5728\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u54f2\u5b66\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u660e\u663e\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u3002\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u8fdb\u5316\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

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Raimundas Vidunas (Osaka University)<\/span> <\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
\u8881\u51b0<\/span> <\/span>| <\/strong><\/span>\u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/section>\n
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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aDelegated Causality of Complex Systems<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1ahttps:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10516-018-9377-3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u6846\u67b6\u90fd\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u81ea\u7136\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1a\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7<\/span>\uff08Ashby 1962; Depew and Weber 1999\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Miller and Page 2007; Horgan 1995\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u81ea\u521b\u751f<\/a><\/span>\uff08Maturana and Varela 1980\uff09\uff08\u53c2\u770b\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u6761\uff1ahttps:\/\/wiki.swarma.org\/index.php\/\u81ea\u521b\u751f\u7406\u8bba\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8017\u6563\u7ed3\u6784<\/span>\uff08Prigogine and Nicolis 1977\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e34\u754c\u6027<\/span>\uff08Bak 1996; Watkins et al. 2015\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u901a\u5e38\u57fa\u4e8e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u5438\u5f15\u5b50\u3001\u975e\u5e73\u8861\u70ed\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\uff08England 2013; Kondepudi et al. 2015\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u76f8\u53d8<\/span>\uff08Brochini et al. 2016\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\u5206\u6790<\/span>\uff08West 2017\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u5143\u80de\u81ea\u52a8\u673a<\/span>\uff08Wolfram 2002; Langton 1990\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u53d8\u5f02\u548c\u9009\u62e9\u673a\u5236<\/span>\uff08Heylighen 2000; Vijver et al. 1998\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bba<\/span>\uff08von Bertalanffy 1968; Capra and Luisi 2014\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u53d1\u5c55\u6846\u67b6<\/span>\uff08Salthe 1993; Coffman 2011\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Lerner 2007\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u73b0\u8c61\u5b66\u6240\u805a\u7126\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5305\u62ec\u6709\u5e8f\u6027\u7684\u81ea\u53d1\u589e\u52a0<\/span>\uff08Holland 1995; Kauffman 1993\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ece\u5c40\u90e8\u4e92\u52a8\u4e2d\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u5168\u5c40\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u884c\u4e3a<\/span>\uff08Popkin 2016\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u73af\u5883\u6270\u52a8\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u3002De Wolf\u548cHolvoet<\/span>\uff082005\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u6d8c\u73b0\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5b9e\u7528\u6027\u533a\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u81ea\u6cbb\u3001\u5206\u6563\u63a7\u5236\u3001\u4e92\u52a8\u5c01\u95ed\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u7279\u5f81\u4e4b\u4e00<\/span>\uff08Maturana and Varela 1980; Moreno and Mossio 2015\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8003\u8651\u5b9e\u9645\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u8c61\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u81ea\u6cbb\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7684\u53cd\u601d\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5c06\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u7ec4\u5408\u6210\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u884c\u4e3a\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5171\u4eab\u6216\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u90a3\u90e8\u5206\u884c\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u5177\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8fd9\u91cc\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u6bd4\u5404\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u4e92\u52a8\u591a\u5c11\u4ee5\u53ca\u7cfb\u7edf\u6210\u5206\u5747\u5300\u6027\u7684\u4e8c\u7ef4\u8c31\u56fe\u4e0a\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6f84\u6e05\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u89c1\u56fe1\u3002\u751f\u7269\u4f53\u662f\u9ad8\u5ea6\u975e\u5747\u5300\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7ecf\u5386\u6765\u81ea\u73af\u5883\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u538b\u529b<\/span>\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u81ea\u6211\u9020\u6210\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u751f\u7269\u548c\u7269\u7406\u7ec4\u7ec7\u662f\u5d4c\u5957\u7684\u5206\u5c42\u7684<\/span>\uff08Salthe 2012\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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[ \u751f\u7269 [ \u5668\u5b98 [ \u5668\u5b98 [ \u7ec6\u80de [ \u751f\u7269\u5206\u5b50 [ \u539f\u5b50 [ \u2026 ] ] ] ] ] ] ]\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u540c\u65f6\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5d4c\u5957\u5c42\u6b21\u7ed3\u6784\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

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[ [ [ [ [ [ [ \u751f\u7269 ] \u79cd\u7fa4 ] \u6816\u606f\u5730 ] \u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf ] \u751f\u7269\u5708 ] \u661f\u7403 ] \u2026 ]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e3b\u8981\u6309\u7167Simon<\/span>\uff081962\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u4ee5\u5c42\u6b21\u5316\u65b9\u5f0f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u5c42\u7ea7\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5bc6\u96c6\u3001\u591a\u6837\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u589e\u957f\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u5728\u8c31\u7cfb\u56fe\u7528\u5de6\u4e0a\u89d2\u7684P\u4ee3\u8868\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u89d2\u843dQ\u5904\u4e8e\u56fe\u4e2d\u548c\u89d2\u843dP\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u5747\u5300\u7269\u8d28\u76f8\u53d8\u662f\u5426\u53d1\u751f\u4e8e\u6b64\u5904\uff1f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b8f\u89c2\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u5982\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u73af\u5883\u88ab\u7eb3\u5165\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u73af\u5883\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u6df7\u6c8c\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u6270\u52a8\u975e\u5e38\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u6709\u4e00\u70b9\u6270\u52a8\uff0c\u4ece\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8f68\u8ff9\u504f\u79bb\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u3002\u6709\u9650\u65f6\u95f4\u5947\u70b9\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Johansen\u548cSornette 2001\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u5947\u70b9\u4e4b\u524d\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4e5f\u65e9\u665a\u4f1a\u88ab\u8fb9\u754c\u6240\u9650\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe1. \u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u6027\u548c\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u4e8c\u7ef4\u8c31<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u4ec5\u65e0\u6cd5\u6446\u8131\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u770b\u4f3c\u662f\u88ab\u8c03\u6559\u6210\u53ef\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u542b\u4e49\u5462\uff1f\u8fd9\u79cd\u53ef\u611f\u77e5\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u662f\u5426\u5141\u8bb8\u6d8c\u73b0\u5b9e\u4f53\u771f\u6b63\u5177\u5907\u5411\u4e0b\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u5462\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u89d2\u843dQ\u9644\u8fd1\u662f\u5426\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5f97\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\uff1f\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fdd\u8bc1\u628a\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u8fd8\u539f\u4e3a\u57fa\u672c\u7269\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5f00\u59cb\u63a2\u8ba8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7269\u7406\u8fd8\u539f\u5728P\u89d2\u843d\u9644\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e4e\u65e0\u6548\u3002\u8457\u540d\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u5bb6Mayr<\/span>\uff082004, Ch. 4\uff09<\/span>\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u5728\u8fdb\u5316\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u751f\u7406\u5316\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u65e0\u6548\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u4ea7\u751f\u6709\u7528\u7684\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u624d\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u5411\u4e0b\u5206\u6790\u201d\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cMayr\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u6ce2\u666e\u5c14<\/span>\uff08Popper, 1974, pp. 269, 281\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4e25\u5389\u6279\u8bc4\uff1a\u201c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u54f2\u5b66\uff0c\u8fd8\u539f\u4e3b\u4e49\u662f\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u2026\u2026\u6211\u4eec\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u9896\u6027\u4e0d\u65ad\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\uff1b\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u9896\u6027\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u8fd8\u539f\u4e3a\u4efb\u4f55\u524d\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u201d\u5982\u679c\u7269\u7406\u8fd8\u539f\u4e3b\u4e49\u6700\u7ec8\u5728P\u9644\u8fd1\u7ad9\u5f97\u4f4f\u811a\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u4e5f\u4e00\u5b9a\u88ab\u63a9\u85cf\u5f97\u6781\u6df1\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5c06\u5176\u5c42\u5c42\u63a9\u76d6\u7684\u6b63\u662f\u591a\u5c42\u7ea7\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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3. \u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


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\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u5b9a\u4e49\u6765\u786e\u8ba4\u91cd\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9a\u4e49\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u975e\u8fd8\u539f\u8bba\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u4e2a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u5f62\u8c61\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9a\u4e49\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u201c\u51c6\u5907\u88ab\u6270\u52a8\u201d\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08\u8fde\u7eed\u6216\u79bb\u6563\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u3001\u5206\u5c94\u3001\u4e34\u754c\u76f8\u3001\u201c\u6df7\u6c8c\u8fb9\u7f18\u201d\u6761\u4ef6<\/span>\uff08Waldrop 1993; Kauffman 1993\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5b9a\u4e491<\/strong>\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u5176\u72b6\u6001\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u8fb9\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\u9002\u5ea6\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u80fd\u591f\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u590d\u6742\u4e14\u6709\u6f5c\u5728\u6548\u7528\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u9884\u6fc0\u6001<\/strong>\u201d<\/span>\uff08primed\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e2d\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e3b\u89c2\u503e\u5411\u8bcd\u8bed\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u591f\u4ee4\u4eba\u6ee1\u610f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e3b\u89c2\u6027\u7684\u6697\u793a\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u53c2\u8003\u6070\u6070\u662f\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5b9a\u4e49\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u5b64\u7acb\u8003\u8651\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u73af\u5883\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f7c\u6b64\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\u88ab\u8003\u8651\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u88ab\u52a8\u5730\u3001\u53cd\u5e94\u6027\u5730\u9075\u5faa\u7269\u7406\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3001\u8fb9\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u6270\u52a8\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u8db3\u591f\u4e30\u5bcc\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u662f\u5904\u4e8e\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u3002\u6df7\u6c8c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6216\u5904\u4e8e\u70ed\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5219\u660e\u786e\u5730\u4e0d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e00\u65e6\u5404\u79cd\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u6240\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u9519\u7efc\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u5173\u7cfb\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u4e86\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cbe\u7ec6\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u8bba\u6216\u8fdb\u5316\u8bba\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9690\u55bb\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\u3001\u5173\u7cfb\u578b\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u8c31\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5b9a\u4e492<\/strong>\uff1a\u5e7f\u4e49\u5e02\u573a<\/strong><\/span>\uff08broad market\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08primed dynamical system\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u96c6\u5408\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e92\u52a8\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5ef6\u4f38\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9690\u55bb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5c5e\u6027\u79f0\u4e3a\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5c06\u9a71\u52a8\u6548\u5e94\u79f0\u4e3a\u4f9b\u7ed9\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e7f\u4e49\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u6784\u5efa\u6210\u5206\u5c42\u6a21\u5757<\/span>\uff08Simon 1962; Salthe 2012\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u8005\u63a7\u5236\u6a21\u5757\uff0c\u5176\u6784\u5efa\u65b9\u5f0f\u88ab\u4f9b\u9700\u5173\u7cfb\u683c\u5c40\u6240\u652f\u914d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5b9a\u4e493<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u72b6\u6001\u4f1a\u88ab\u5916\u90e8\u3001\u6d8c\u73b0\u6216\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0e\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ea4\u4e92\u7684\u9002\u5ea6\u4f5c\u7528\u529b\u6240\u9a71\u52a8\uff0c\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/strong><\/span>\uff08delegated causation\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u201c\u9002\u5ea6\u4f5c\u7528\u529b\u201d\u662f\u6309\u7167\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u80fd\u529b\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u91cd\u70b9\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7684\u8fd0\u8425\u7279\u5f81\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u8425\u9500\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u4e2d\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7531\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u81ea\u8eab\u5b9e\u4f53\u6240\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u6211\u5728\u7b2c6\u8282\u7684\u672b\u5c3e\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u9a71\u52a8\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6027\u8d28\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9a\u4e49\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8c31\u7cfb\u56fe1\u4e2dP\u89d2\u843d\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6700\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u5728Q\u89d2\u843d\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5e7f\u4e49\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u7279\u6b8a\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u786c\u4ef6\u548c\u667a\u80fd\u624b\u673a\u5c4f\u5e55\u4e2d\u6240\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u5185\u90e8\u540c\u8d28\u7684\u201c\u5e02\u573a\u201d\u4e2d\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u4ee3\u7406\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u8282\u4e2d\u7b80\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5e94\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u5e94\u7eb3\u5165\u5efa\u6a21\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u3002\u5176\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u6027<\/span>\uff08Chu 2011\uff09<\/span>\u4e0d\u9f13\u52b1\u901a\u8fc7\u5355\u4e00\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u8c61\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5141\u8bb8\u9610\u660e\u63a7\u5236\u94fe\u8def\u3001\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u548c\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u65b9\u6cd5\u6b65\u9aa4\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u4ee3\u7406\u4ea4\u4e92\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u5355\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
[M1] \u8bc6\u522b\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u786e\u5b9a\u5176\u5bf9\u6270\u52a8\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
[M2] \u8bc6\u522b\u6270\u52a8\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\uff1b\u63cf\u8ff0\u5176\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

[M3] \u63cf\u8ff0\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u548c\u5e7f\u4e49\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5728\u7b2c5\u8282\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u4f8b\u5b50\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u3002\u56e0\u7d20[M2]\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u5b9a\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5e72\u9884\u6027\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u6211\u5c06[M1]\u548c[M2]\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u5bf9\u5206\u522b\u4ee3\u8868\u4ee3\u7406\u5c5e\u6027\u548c\u5e72\u9884\u5c5e\u6027\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5728\u901a\u4fd7\u8bed\u8a00\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u4ee3\u7406\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5408\u7406\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0[M1]\u6bd4\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u800c\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u5219\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86[M2]\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6211\u5728\u62bd\u8c61\u548c\u6cdb\u5316\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee3\u7406\u4e00\u8bcd\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u4efb\u4f55\u4ea4\u4e92\u4e2d\u7684[M1]\u56e0\u679c\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u591a\u5c42\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u53ef\u8868\u793a\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u52a8\u6001\u6df1\u5ea6\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Deacon and Koutroufinis 2014\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u79d1\u5c14\u83ab\u54e5\u6d1b\u592b\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span>\uff08Kolmogorovian sophistication, Mota et al. 2013\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u91cf\u5316\u7cfb\u7edf\u590d\u6742\u6027\u662f\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u3002\u6211\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u5efa\u8bae\u5bf9\u52a8\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u5ea6\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u5e72\u6270\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u88681 \u751f\u7269\u5b66\u4e2d\u4ee3\u7406\u2014\u2014\u5e72\u9884\u5206\u6790\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5982\u7b2c3\u8282\u6982\u6240\u8ff0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

[M1]<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

[M2]<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

[M3]<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u7ec6\u80de(Cell)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5fc3\u8840\u7ba1\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u6c27\u6c14\u3001\u8425\u517b\u7269\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u5fc3\u8840\u7ba1\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5fc3\u810f<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u8840\u6db2\u5faa\u73af<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u5668\u5b98<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5185\u5206\u6ccc\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u6fc0\u7d20\u534f\u8c03<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u611f\u67d3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u514d\u75ab\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u9632\u75ab\u4fdd\u62a4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u88ab\u6355\u98df\u8005<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u6355\u98df\u8005<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u98df\u7269\u94fe<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5165\u4fb5\u7269\u79cd<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u751f\u6001\u7834\u574f<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u6816\u606f\u5730<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\u5efa\u6784<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5bf9\u73af\u5883\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u6539\u53d8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u7269\u79cd\u79cd\u7fa4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5c71\u5730\u5730\u5f62<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5730\u7406\u7269\u79cd\u5f62\u6210<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u9057\u4f20\u53d8\u5f02<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5dee\u5f02\u7e41\u6b96<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u81ea\u7136\u9009\u62e9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u57fa\u56e0\u5e93<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u6709\u6027\u7e41\u6b96<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u9057\u4f20\u53d8\u5f02<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u9057\u4f20\u6f02\u53d8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u95f4\u65ad\u5e73\u8861<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u5316\u5b66\u5316\u5408\u7269<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u9176<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u50ac\u5316\u53cd\u5e94<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u6838\u9178<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u6838\u7cd6\u4f53<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u86cb\u767d\u8d28\u53cd\u5e94<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u53d8\u6784\u9176<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u6291\u5236\u6027\u7684\u6fc0\u6d3b\u4ee3\u8c22\u7269<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u4ee3\u8c22\u9014\u5f84\u7684\u8c03\u63a7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u5177\u6709\u4e92\u8865\u4f4d\u70b9\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u7269<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u975e\u5171\u4ef7\u952e<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u591a\u529f\u80fd\u7acb\u4f53\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u9274\u522b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u5be1\u805a\u86cb\u767d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u7acb\u4f53\u7279\u5f02\u6027\u952e\u5408<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u81ea\u53d1\u81ea\u7ec4\u88c5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u7acb\u4f53\u9009\u62e9\u6027<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5316\u5b66\u52bf<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u4fe1\u606f\u653e\u5927<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u53d7\u7cbe\u5375<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u57fa\u56e0\u7ec4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u4e2a\u4f53\u53d1\u80b2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u57fa\u56e0\u7ec4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u57fa\u56e0\u8c03\u63a7\u7f51\u7edc<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5f62\u6001\u53d1\u751f<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u5e72\u7ec6\u80de<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u53ef\u53d8\u57fa\u56e0\u8868\u8fbe<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u7ec6\u80de\u5206\u5316<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u80da\u5c42<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u7ec6\u80de\u5206\u9009\uff0cEMT<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5206\u79bb<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5176\u5b9e\u524d\u4eba\u5df2\u7ecf\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e0e\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Deacon<\/span>\uff08Deacon, 2011\uff09<\/span>\u5c06\u7279\u5b9a\u7f3a\u5931<\/span>\uff08specific absence\uff09<\/span>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u201c\u62c9\u201d\u529b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u6848\u4f8b<\/span>\uff08\u53c2\u89c1Clayton and Davies 2006, p. 119\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u53d7\u9650\u7f3a\u5931<\/span>\uff08constrained absences\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u865a\u62df\u9700\u6c42<\/span>\uff08virtual demands\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u201c\u5b55\u80b2\u201d\u673a\u4f1a<\/span>\uff08\u201cpregnant\u201d opportunities\uff0cSalthe 2012\uff0c\u7b2c9\u8282\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u89d2\u8272\u503c\u5f97\u8d5e\u8d4f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\u53d7\u5230\u7eba\u7ec7\u3001\u94c1\u77ff\u548c\u91c7\u77ff\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5927\u529b\u63a8\u52a8<\/span>\uff08Deane 1979\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5b9a\u5f8b\u548c\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5730\u4f4d\u4e5f\u53d7\u5230\u5c0a\u91cd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6df7\u6c8c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u4ee3\u7406\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u65e0\u8bba\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u90fd\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5438\u5f15\u5b50\u3001\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e73\u8861\u70b9\u6216\u8005\u4e00\u4e2a\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u54ea\u91cc\u8fd8\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u56e0\u679c\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n


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4. \u7269\u7406\u8fd8\u539f\u4e3b\u4e49<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u6027\u4e0ePearl<\/span>\uff082000\uff09<\/span>\u5173\u4e8e\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u76f8\u543b\u5408\u3002\u5e72\u9884\u662f\u201c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5916\u90e8\u5b9e\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u53d1\u8d77\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u7406\u8bba\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u67d0\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d<\/span>\uff08Pearl 1999\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u5e72\u9884<\/span>\uff08\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u6545\u969c\u7684\u9006\u5411\u5e72\u9884\uff09<\/span>\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5173\u952e\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6211\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u8bba\u70b9\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/strong>\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u89e3\u91ca\u5fae\u89c2\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7<\/span>Pearl\uff082000\uff09\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6f14\u7b97<\/a>\u548c Hoel\uff082017\uff09\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0<\/a>\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e3b<\/span>\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u5f15\u53d1\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6027\u56e0\u679c<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u662f\u7528\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u672f\u8bed\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u903b\u8f91\u8868\u8ff0\uff1a\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u901a\u5e38\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u66f4\u52a0\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u4e00\u6392\u5012\u4e0b\u7684\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u9aa8\u724c\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u5c06\u5fae\u89c2\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\u548c\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f<\/span>\uff08Hoel 2017\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e0e\u67d0\u4e2a\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u201c\u5e73\u7a33\u201d\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u5f88\u6709\u542f\u53d1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5411\u4e0b\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5f80\u5f80\u6d89\u53ca\u73af\u5883\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u901a\u8fc7\u73af\u5883\u4ea4\u4e92\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5411\u4e0b\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u662f\u5b9e\u8df5\u751f\u6210\u5faa\u73af<\/span>\uff08practopoietic cycle, Nicoli\u0107 2015\uff0c\u7b2c2.6\u8282\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6211\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u8bba\u70b9\u6d89\u53ca\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u7684\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5907\u6027\u5b9a\u7406<\/span><\/strong>\uff08G\u00f6del, 1931\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u8bed\u8a00\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u81ea\u76f8\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u6096\u8bba\u7684\u5473\u9053<\/span>\uff08Humphries 1979\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u6270\u4e71\u4e86\u7269\u7406\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u5219<\/span>\uff08Kim 2005\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53caKim<\/span>\uff081998\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u975e\u8fd8\u539f\u7269\u7406\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8bba\u8bc1\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u5c01\u95ed\u539f\u5219\u6307\u51fa<\/span>\uff08Clayton and Davies 2006, p. 199\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7269\u7406\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6709\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u7269\u7406\u539f\u56e0\uff1b\u56e0\u679c\u6392\u4ed6\u539f\u5219\u6307\u51fa<\/span>\uff08Kim 2005, p. 41\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u80fd\u5145\u5206\u89e3\u91ca\u4e00\u4e2a\u7269\u7406\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u9700\u8981\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0<\/span>\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u5fc3\u7406\u539f\u56e0\uff09<\/span>\u3002Kim\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u975e\u7269\u7406\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u56e0\u679c\u529b\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u8bd5\u56fe\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u5916\u90e8\u4e3b\u4f53<\/span>\uff08agent\uff09<\/span>\u4ee5\u53ca\u6d8c\u73b0\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u54ea\u6015\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4ee3\u7406\u5e76\u975e\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u7684\u3002\u4ece\u800c\u5bf9\u7269\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u5145\u5206\u6027\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u9610\u660e\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u5bf9\u7b49<\/span>\uff08causal parity\uff0cWeber 2018\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u591a\u5c42\u7ea7\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\u6027\u3002\u5b83\u652f\u6491\u4e86\u5c42\u6b21\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u91cd\u65b0\u6fc0\u6d3b\u4e86\u4e9a\u91cc\u58eb\u591a\u5fb7\u5173\u4e8e\u8d28\u6599\u3001\u5f62\u5f0f\u3001\u6548\u679c\u548c\u76ee\u7684\u7684\u56db\u56e0\u8bf4<\/span>\uff08Coffman 2011; Salthe 2012\uff0c\u7b2c9\u8282\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u987a\u4fbf\u63d0\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u6ce2\u666e\u5c14<\/span>\uff08Popper 1974\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u53cd\u5bf9\u8fd8\u539f\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u7684\u5b9a\u7406\u3002Rosen<\/span>\uff081991\uff09<\/span>\u901a\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\u5f15\u7528\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u7684\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5907\u6027\u6765\u5426\u5b9a\u5bf9\u751f\u547d\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8eKim\u5173\u4e8e\u526f\u73b0\u8c61\u8bba\u7684\u8bba\u8bc1\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u5e72\u9884\u8bba\u8bc1<\/span>\uff08Shapiro and Sober 2007\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bba\u8bc1<\/span>\uff08List and Menzies 2009\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u53cd\u9a73\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u548c\u8fd8\u539f\u901a\u5e38\u4ee5\u968f\u9644\u6027<\/span>\uff08supervenience\uff0cButterfield 2012; Stalnaker 1996; Clayton and Davies 2006, pp. 189\u2013243\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u5373\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u5fae\u89c2\u5c5e\u6027\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u5c06\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c5e\u6027\u3002\u968f\u9644\u6027\u901a\u5e38\u7531\u4ece\u7269\u7406\u5fae\u89c2\u72b6\u6001\u5230\u6d8c\u73b0\u5b8f\u89c2\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u7c97\u7c92\u5316\u6620\u5c04\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6d89\u53ca\u5916\u90e8\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5916\u90e8\u4e3b\u4e49\u503e\u5411<\/span>\uff08Clark and Chalmers 1999; Menary 2010\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5b83\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u968f\u9644\u6027\u5bf9\u5fae\u89c2\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5355\u7eaf\u8bb0\u5fc6\u548c\u8868\u5f81\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u503e\u5411\u5728\u63a5\u8fd1P\u89d2\u843d\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u5b8c\u7f8e\u4f53\u73b0\uff0c\u7531\u4e4b\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5bf9\u968f\u9644\u6027\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6000\u7591\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u52a8\u7269\u4f1a\u4e60\u60ef\u6027\u9075\u5faa\u540c\u4f34\u7fa4\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u6216\u201c\u4e13\u5bb6\u201d\u7b49\u5916\u90e8\u7ebf\u7d22\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\uff0c\u4ea6\u6216\u5728\u5176\u65e5\u5e38\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u795e\u7ecf\u751f\u7406\u57fa\u7840\u4f1a\u4e3b\u52a8\u5730\u201c\u6e34\u671b\u201d\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u8fd9\u90fd\u662f\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u3001\u5177\u8eab\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50<\/span>\uff08Wilson 20<\/span>02\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u610f\u5fd7\u662f\u6700\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u6bcb\u5eb8\u7f6e\u7591\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5df2\u77e5\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5dc5\u5cf0<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4ece\u5b9e\u7528\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u610f\u8bc6\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u884c\u4e3a\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u80fd\u591f<\/span>\uff08\u6709\u65f6\u7279\u522b\u5b89\u9759\u5730\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u60c5\u7eea\u548c\u8eab\u4f53\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u8fdb\u884c\u5e72\u9884\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe1\u4e2dQ\u89d2\u843d\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u201c\u6e34\u671b\u201d\u63a5\u53d7\u5916\u90e8\u5f71\u54cd\u5417\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u77e5\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89d2\u843d\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u5fae\u4e0d\u8db3\u9053\u7684\uff1f\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u76f8\u53d8\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u59d4\u6258\u7ed9\u5c18\u57c3\u7c92\u5b50\u3001\u7269\u8d28\u7684\u4e0d\u89c4\u5219\u6027\u3002\u6700\u620f\u5267\u6027\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\u5c06\u6574\u4e2a\u5b87\u5b99\u89c6\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u5916\u90e8\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u5426\u5728\u5bfb\u6c42\u5c06\u5176\u7edf\u8ba1\u53c2\u6570\u3001\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\u201c\u529b\u201d<\/span>\uff08Onsager 1931\uff09<\/span>\u5916\u90e8\u5316\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6ee1\u8db3\u9a6c\u8d6b\u539f\u7406<\/span>\uff08Jannes and Volovik 2015\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u91cd\u6574\u5316\u7fa4\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Batterman 2000; Mainwood 2006\uff0c\u7b2c3\u7ae0\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u6d77\u68ee\u5821\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u8fb9\u754c\u201d\u4e0a\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u5462\uff1f\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u65b0\u5947\u6027\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u968f\u9644\u6027\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u6548\u6269\u5c55\uff1f\u6d8c\u73b0\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u5426\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u8ba9\u6e21\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1f\u81f3\u5c11\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63a8\u6d4b\u53ef\u4ee5\u7c7b\u6bd4\u4e3a\uff1a\u5c3d\u7ba1\u968f\u9644\u6027\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u3001\u5206\u5f62\u7684\u6216\u96be\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u62d3\u6251\u6620\u5c04\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5b8f\u89c2\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u53ef\u7528\u5e73\u6ed1\u51fd\u6570\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u7684\u91cd\u6574\u5316\u7fa4\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4e2d\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u4e86\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08Wolchover 2014; Mehta and Schwab 2014\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5de5\u4f5c\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u5c06\u201c\u6d8c\u73b0\u201d\u89c6\u4e3a\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff1b\u6211\u5728\u7b2c7\u8282\u4e2d\u8be6\u7ec6\u9610\u8ff0\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e0a\u8ff0\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u970d\u91d1\u4e07\u7269\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u5e94\u8be5\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u63d0\u53ca<\/span>\uff08Hawking 2005\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u7ed9\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5907\u5b9a\u7406\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e86\u660e\u663e\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u54c1\u5473<\/span>\uff08Jaki 1966; Dyson 2004; Hawking 2002\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5907\u5b9a\u7406\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd0\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u672f\u8bed\u91cd\u65b0\u8868\u8ff0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u5904\u4e8e\u201c\u6df7\u6c8c\u8fb9\u7f18\u201d\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6240\u626e\u6f14\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u975e\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u653e\u5f03\u8fd8\u539f\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u8fd8\u539f\u4e3b\u4e49\u8303\u5f0f\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u4f3c\u653e\u4efb\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5b8c\u5168\u88ab\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5b89\u6392\u6240\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u4f46\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u5b9e\u73b0\u5f62\u5f0f\u5219\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6765\u81ea\u73af\u5883\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u6270\u52a8\u6216\u8f93\u5165\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u662f\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u89e3\u91ca\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u7edd\u4f73\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u8be6\u5b9e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u8bf1\u53d1\u56e0\u7d20\u5b9e\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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Mayr<\/span>\uff081961\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u751f\u7269\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u8fd1\u56e0<\/span>\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u751f\u7406\u5b66\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u8fdc\u56e0<\/span>\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u8fdb\u5316\u5b66\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e0e\u8fd8\u539f\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6a21\u677f\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u8fd9\u4e9b\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u201c\u76ee\u7684\u8bba\u201d\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u65b0\u8fbe\u5c14\u6587\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u73b0\u4ee3\u7efc\u5408\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Modern Synthesis\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u66f4\u52a0\u57fa\u672c\u3002\u751f\u7406\u53d1\u80b2\u53d7\u9057\u4f20\u5bc6\u7801\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\uff0c\u800c\u9057\u4f20\u5bc6\u7801\u53c8\u53d7\u5230\u81ea\u7136\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u73b0\u4ee3\u7efc\u5408\u8bba\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u89e3\u8bfb\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4ece\u8fdb\u5316\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u51fa\u53d1\u624d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u7406\u89e3\u751f\u7269\u529f\u80fd\u548c\u6709\u673a\u4f53\uff0c\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u53bb\u7406\u89e3\u4e2a\u4f53\u53d1\u80b2\u3002\u4e2a\u4f53\u53d1\u80b2\u5c06\u751f\u7269\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u8fd8\u539f\u4e3a\u7edf\u8ba1\u8868\u578b\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u9057\u4f20\u9002\u5e94\u548c\u6f02\u53d8\uff0c<\/span>\uff08\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4f53\u53d1\u80b2\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff09<\/span>\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5bf9\u73b0\u4ee3\u7efc\u5408\u8bba\u6301\u7eed\u6279\u8bc4\u7684\u6df1\u5c42\u539f\u56e0<\/span>\uff08Laland et al. 2014; Welch 2017; Gould and Lewontin 1978; Pigliucci and Muller 2010; Vijver et al. 1998\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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Laland\u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082011, 2013\uff09<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1Mayr\u7684\u8fd1\u56e0-\u8fdc\u56e0\u4e8c\u5206\u6cd5\u4ecd\u7136\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u6f14\u5316\u548c\u53d1\u80b2\u7684\u9002\u5f53\u6574\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u8fdb\u5316\u65b0\u5947\u6027\u5177\u6709\u591a\u91cd\u6765\u6e90\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3b\u5f20\u53d1\u80b2\u548c\u8fdb\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u901a\u8fc7\u8868\u578b\u53ef\u5851\u6027<\/span>\uff08phenotypic plasticity\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u53d1\u80b2\u504f\u501a<\/span>\uff08developmental bias\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u8868\u89c2\u9057\u4f20<\/span>\uff08epigenetic inheritance\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u53d8\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5982\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\u6784\u5efa<\/span>\uff08niche construction\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u751f\u6001\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5bf9\u6f14\u5316\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u521a\u597d\u662f\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u6982\u5ff5\u79d1\u5b66\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6e05\u5355\u3002\u57fa\u56e0\u662f\u751f\u7269\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u56e0\u679c\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u4e3b\u5bb0\uff0c\u4eab\u6709\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u751f\u5316\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u6765\u81ea\u53d1\u80b2\u548c\u751f\u6001\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6548\u679c\u5728\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u673a\u5236\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4f53\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7b2c3\u8282\u4e2d\u7528[M1]\u2013[M3]\u65b9\u6cd5\u9610\u660e\u4e86\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u7a81\u51fa\u4e86\u5e72\u9884\u529b[M2]\u548c\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528[M3]\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u88681\u4e2d\u901a\u8fc7\u751f\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u3001\u8fdb\u5316\u5b66\u3001\u751f\u7269\u5316\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Monod 1972\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u53d1\u80b2\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Fagotto 2014; Nieto et al. 2016\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u3002\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u529b\u91cf\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u5904\u4e8e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\u624d\u662f\u4ee3\u7406\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u4e2d\u67a2\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u6211\u5c06\u5728\u7b2c7\u8282\u4e2d\u518d\u6b21\u53d9\u8ff0\u3002\u5728\u751f\u7269\u5316\u5b66\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5217[M1]\u3001[M2]\u5206\u522b\u52fe\u52d2\u4e86Rosen<\/span>\uff081991\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u4e9a\u91cc\u58eb\u591a\u5fb7\u8d28\u6599\u56e0\u548c\u6548\u679c\u56e0\u7684\u8be0\u91ca\u3002\u751f\u7269\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Moreno and Mossio 2015; Maturana and Varela 1980\uff09<\/span>\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95ed\u5408\u3002\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7279\u5f02\u6027\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b<\/span>\uff08Calcott 2017; Woodward 2010\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u56e0\u7d20[M1]\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u63d0\u4f9b\u7279\u5f02\u6027\uff0c\u800c[M2]\u5219\u63d0\u4f9b\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u5bbd\u5bb9\u6027\u3002[M1]\u2013[M3]\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5fc5\u987b\u6bd4<\/span>\uff08Laland et al. 2011, 2013\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08reciprocal causation\uff09<\/span>\u672f\u8bed\u66f4\u52a0\u6e05\u6670\u3002Mayr\u7684\u8fd1\u56e0\u548c\u8fdc\u56e0\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u533a\u5206\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u5f97\u4ee5\u4fdd\u7559\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5176\u4ed6\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u8fdb\u884c\u660e\u786e\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u7528\u7684\u9886\u57df\u5305\u62ec\u5fae\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u3001\u5171\u751f\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Margulis and Fester 1991\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u6c9f\u901a\u5b66<\/span>\uff08d\u2019Ettorre and Hughes 2008\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7fa4\u4f53\u9009\u62e9<\/span>\uff08Wilson\u548cSober 1994\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u591a\u5c42\u6b21\u9009\u62e9<\/span>\uff08Okasha 2006\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u53ef\u8fdb\u5316\u6027<\/span>\uff08Crutchfield and Schuster 2003\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u5408\u4f5c<\/span>\uff08Nowak 2006\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u5229\u4ed6\u4e3b\u4e49<\/span>\uff08Sober and Wilson 1988\uff09<\/span>\u4ee5\u53ca\u957f\u671f\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u7b49\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u91c7\u7eb3\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u6539\u53d8\u3002Wynne-Edwards<\/span>\uff081962\uff09<\/span>\u5173\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u9886\u5730\u548c\u5c42\u6b21\u5316\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53ef\u4ee5\u8c03\u8282\u79cd\u7fa4\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u4f46\u968f\u7740\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u89e3\u91ca<\/span>\uff08Dawkins 1976\uff0c\u7b2c7\u7ae0\uff09<\/span>\u6210\u4e3a\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u79cd\u7fa4\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u201c\u7ec8\u6781<\/span>\uff08\u8fdc\u56e0\uff09<\/span>\u201d\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u7684\u8fd1\u56e0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u53ef\u4fe1\u3002Mayr<\/span>\uff082004\uff0c\u7b2c8\u7ae0\uff09<\/span>\u8ba4\u53ef\u5bf9\u5177\u6709\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u6240\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u9002\u5e94\u5ea6\uff0c\u8981\u6bd4\u6309\u6bd4\u4f8b\u653e\u5927\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u9002\u5e94\u5ea6\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u5927\u4e8e\u90e8\u5206\u4e4b\u548c\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u539f\u7406\u76f8\u5f97\u76ca\u5f70\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e2d\u56fd\u54f2\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e5f\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u548c\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u4ea7\u751f\u5171\u9e23\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5c55\u793a\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u5f15\u5bfc\u8bfb\u8005\u505a\u67d0\u79cd\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6027\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u4e9b\u8868\u610f\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u610f\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u67d0\u4e9b\u6587\u5316\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e4b\u5904\u8fc5\u901f\u5f15\u53d1\u5171\u9e23\u3002\u5728\u8bfb\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\uff0c\u9f13\u52b1\u8bfb\u8005\u6452\u9664\u793e\u4f1a\u6027\u548c\u60c5\u611f\u4e0a\u7684\u504f\u89c1\uff0c\u8c28\u614e\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u53e4\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u9634\u9633\u6982\u5ff5\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u6765\u786e\u8ba4\u5bf9\u7acb\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u4e92\u8865\u6027\u3002\u8f83\u5c11\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u9634\u9633\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u4e92\u8865\u539f\u5219<\/span>\uff08Oxford 2010\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u9053\u6559\u66f4\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e92\u8865\u7684\u548c\u8c10<\/span>\uff08Capra 1975\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u5112\u5bb6\u66f4\u5f3a\u8c03\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u6027<\/span>\uff08Rosenlee 2007\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5f88\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u5728\u548c\u9634\u9633\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u4e86\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u6574\u4f53\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08Chung 2016\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Zhang and Zhang 2007\uff1bBenetatou 2016\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u8f6c\u5316\u6027\u53d8\u5316<\/span>\uff08transformational change, Klein and Wong 2012\uff1bLi et al. 2012\uff09<\/span>\u751a\u81f3\u5fae\u751f\u7269\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Zhang 2014\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5206\u5b50\u751f\u7269\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Gordon et al. 2006\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e92\u8865\u6027\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\uff0c\u9634\u662f\u88ab\u52a8\u3001\u60f0\u6027\u7684\u62bd\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u9633\u662f\u4e3b\u52a8\u3001\u751f\u6210\u6027\u7684\u539f\u5219\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u6027\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u6355\u6349\u4e86\u673a\u68b0\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5b9a\u4e491<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u52a8\u7684\u3001\u53cd\u5e94\u6027\u7684\u9634\uff0c\u800c\u6839\u636e\u5b9a\u4e493<\/strong>\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u662f\u9633\u3002\u91c7\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bed\u8a00\u4f3c\u4e4e\u65e2\u6070\u5f53\u53c8\u65b9\u4fbf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6539\u8ff0\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u9648\u8ff0\uff0c\u9633\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5b9e\u73b0\u662f\u6b21\u8981\u7684\u3002\u9633\u662f\u65b0\u5947\u7684\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e8e\u9634\u7684\u9886\u5730\u4e4b\u5916\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5904\u4e8e\u5e95\u5c42\u7684\u9634\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u9633\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u82f1\u96c4<\/span>\uff08Campbell 1968\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u5e08\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u8d85\u7684\u9b54\u672f\u5e08\u3002\u9633\u662f\u8fbe\u6210\u534f\u540c\u6027\u7684\u9b54\u6cd5\u3002\u9633\u901a\u8fc7\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u201c\u5bf9\u6297\u201d\u71b5\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e0d\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u51b3\u5b9a\u52a8\u4f5c\u7684\u8f6c\u5411\uff0c\u5e76\u5b9a\u4e49\u6c9f\u901a\u8bed\u8a00\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e00\u65e6\u9634\u6027\u8d44\u6e90\u5145\u88d5\uff0c\u80fd\u5229\u7528\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u9633\u5c31\u4f1a\u7ade\u76f8\u6d8c\u73b0\u3002\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u8c01\u5728\u9a7e\u9a6d\u8c01\uff1f\u5728\u9634\u9633\u7684\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u4e92\u52a8\u4e2d\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u6743\u7684\u5f52\u5c5e\u662f\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\u3002\u9634\u9633\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u79cd\u4ee5\u592a\u6781\u56fe\u6807\u4e3a\u8c61\u5f81\u76f8\u4e92\u5305\u5bb9\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u611f\u77e5\u673a\u5236\u662f\u5904\u4e8e\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u7684\u9634\u6027\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u73af\u5883\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f46\u9633\u540c\u6837\u5e94\u5177\u5907\u611f\u77e5\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u9634\u6027\u540c\u4f34\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u9700\u6c42\u5e76\u52a0\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5916\u90e8\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u9633\uff0c\u5176\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u673a\u5236\u662f\u968f\u673a\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u9634\u5141\u8bb8\u673a\u9047\u6765\u6307\u6325\u5b83\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u53e4\u4ee3\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\uff0c\u5360\u535c\u4eea\u5f0f\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5546\u671d\u65f6\u671f<\/span>\uff08\u516c\u5143\u524d1600\u5e74\u81f3\u516c\u5143\u524d1046\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u725b\u6216\u9f9f\u7684\u7532\u9aa8\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528<\/span>\uff08Keightley 1978\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u9633\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u673a\u5236\u662f\u7ade\u4e89\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u9634\u8bbe\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6bd4\u8d5b\uff0c\u770b\u8c01\u6700\u80fd\u6ee1\u8db3\u6216\u5047\u88c5\u6ee1\u8db3\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u9633\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u8868\u73b0\u5f62\u5f0f\u662f\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u76ee\u7684\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u65f6\u5730\u627e\u5230\u9633\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u68c0\u67e5Mayr<\/span>\uff082004\uff0c\u7b2c3\u7ae0\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u4e94\u79cd\u76ee\u7684\u8bba\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u662f\u6709\u542f\u53d1\u6027\u7684\uff1a\u201c\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u76ee\u7684\u8bba\u7684\u4e94\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u56db\u79cd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u7528\u79d1\u5b66\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u800c\u7b2c\u4e94\u79cd\uff0c\u5b87\u5b99\u76ee\u7684\u8bba\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u3002\u201d Ellis<\/span>\uff082012; 2016\uff0c\u7b2c4\u7ae0\uff09<\/span>\u5173\u4e8e\u4e94\u79cd\u5411\u4e0b\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5217\u8868\u4e5f\u4e0e\u4e4b\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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7. \u603b\u4f53\u6982\u89c8<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7b2c4\u8282\u4e2d\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u8bba\u9898\u5206\u522b\u5c06\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u8054\u5230\u6d8c\u73b0\u548c\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u7684\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5907\u5b9a\u7406\u3002\u5728\u6587\u732e\u4e2d<\/span>\uff08Requardt 1991\uff09<\/span>\u6d8c\u73b0\u548c\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u7684\u5b9a\u7406\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u88ab\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cJorgensen\u548cSvirezhev\uff082004\uff0c\u7b2c8\u9875\uff09\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u6839\u636e\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u7684\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u79e9\u5e8f\u548c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u90e8\u89c2\u5bdf\u548c\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u7531\u5916\u90e8\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002<\/strong>\u201d\u8003\u8651\u5c06\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u548c\u9009\u62e9\u6a21\u5f0f\u89c6\u4e3a\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5907\u6027\u5728\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u6216\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Prechter 2003\uff09<\/span>\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0cMonod<\/span>\uff081972\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2cIV\u7ae0\uff09<\/span>\u5173\u4e8e\u65e0\u507f\u6027\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5373\u5316\u5b66\u6027\u8d28\u4e0e\u751f\u7269\u5316\u5b66\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5907\u6027\u5b9a\u7406\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u5206\u5c42\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5c42\u7ea7\u878d\u5408\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u201c\u5173\u8282\u201d<\/span>\uff08Salthe 2012\uff0c\u7b2c4\u8282\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u5c42\u7ea7\u5c06\u8fb9\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\u3001\u7ea6\u675f\u548c\u9009\u62e9\u673a\u5236\u65bd\u52a0\u4e8e\u8f83\u4f4e\u5c42\u7ea7\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Juarrero 1999\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8f83\u4f4e\u5c42\u6b21\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e2d\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u6001\u3001\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u4f7f\u5f97\u5411\u4e0b\u56e0\u679c\u5f97\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u5728\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5206\u5c42\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u95f4\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u201c\u5b50\u6574\u4f53<\/span>\uff08sub-wholes\uff09<\/span>\u201d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u79d1\u65af\u7279\u52d2<\/span>\uff08Koestler 1978\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u8bf4\u7684holons\u2014\u2014\u5373\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u6574\u5408\u3001\u76f8\u5bf9\u81ea\u6cbb\u4f46\u53c8\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u65e2\u662f\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5e72\u9884\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u80fd\u91cf\u7684\u6d88\u8017\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5c40\u90e8\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5206\u5c42\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u5404\u4e2a\u5b50\u6574\u4f53\u5f7c\u6b64\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u503e\u5411\u6027\u3001\u529f\u80fd\u548c\u201c\u884c\u4e3a\u51c6\u5219\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6700\u8fd1Mehta and Schwab<\/span>\uff082014<\/span>\uff09<\/span>\u548cWolchove<\/span>r\uff082014\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u51dd\u805a\u6001\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u6574\u5316\u6280\u672f\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u95f4\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b49\u4ef7\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e86\u5fae\u89c2\u76f8\u53d8\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5373\u76f8\u53d8\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u50cf\u8d1d\u7eb3\u5fb7\u7ec6\u80de<\/span>\uff08B\u00e9nard\u2019s cells\uff09<\/span>\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8017\u6563\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Goldhirsch and Procaccia 1981; Swenson 1997, 22\u9875\u201325\u9875\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u4ee5\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u201c\u63a2\u7d22\u201d\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fb9\u754c\u3002\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u7c92\u5b50\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u81ea\u7531\u7a0b\u548c\u5f1b\u8c6b\u65f6\u95f4\u505a\u597d\u51e0\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u7684\u5ef6\u5c55\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u5230\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u3002\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u6210\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u201c\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u201d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u66ff\u4ee3\u8868\u8ff0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u9690\u55bb\u80cc\u666f\u547c\u5e94\u4e86\u5723\u5730\u4e9a\u54e5\u5b66\u6d3e\u5c06\u751f\u547d\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c6\u4e3a\u8ba4\u77e5\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Maturana and Varela 1980\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u610f\u4e49\u751f\u6210\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Thompson 2007\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53caHeylighen<\/span>\uff082011\uff09<\/span>\u5c06\u8fdb\u5316\u548c\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u89c6\u4e3a\u8ba4\u77e5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u884c\u52a8\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u672c\u4f53\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Heylighen 2011\uff09<\/span>\u5c06\u610f\u56fe\u7acb\u573a<\/span>\uff08Dennett 1987\uff09<\/span>\u8d4b\u4e88\u6b63\u5728\u63d0\u5347\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5c06\u5e72\u9884<\/span>\uff08\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\uff09<\/span>\u89c6\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u4f46\u88ab\u52a8\u3001\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u8ba4\u53ef\u3002Deacon<\/span>\uff082011\uff09<\/span>\u5173\u4e8e\u610f\u5411\u6027\u7684\u795e\u79d8\u6982\u5ff5\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u662f\u76f8\u5173\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5b83\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u4e3a\u5b9e\u73b0\u67d0\u79cd\u529f\u80fd\u800c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u751f\u6210\u8ba4\u77e5<\/span>\uff08Varela et al. 1991\uff0c\u7b2c8\u7ae0\uff09<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u548c\u201c\u9884\u671f\u201d\u7684\u5143\u7d20\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u201c\u9884\u671f\u201d\u7684\u7126\u70b9\u5219\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u8ba4\u77e5\u76ee\u6807\u6216\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u89e6\u53d1\u5668\u88ab\u671f\u671b\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u548c\u5173\u8054\u6027<\/span>\uff08Yablo 2014\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u6240\u6709\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6d8c\u73b0\u6216\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u548c\u5b9e\u4f53\u4e2d\u88ab\u8fa8\u522b\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d3b\u7ec6\u80de\u5728\u5176\u53d1\u80b2\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5c06\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u534f\u8c03\u5de5\u4f5c\u4ee3\u7406\u7ed9\u4e86\u57fa\u56e0\u3002\u7ec6\u80de\u8d28\u4e2d\u7684\u751f\u5316\u53cd\u5e94\u7531\u6838\u9178\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\u8fdb\u884c\u7f16\u6392\uff0c\u4f46\u8868\u89c2\u9057\u4f20\u5f00\u5173\u3001\u7ebf\u7c92\u4f53\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u8f93\u5165\u548c\u8425\u517b\u6d41\u52a8\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4ee3\u8c22\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u5668\u5b98\u7684\u6392\u5217\u518d\u6b21\u7531\u57fa\u56e0\u534f\u8c03\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u673a\u201c\u8f7d\u4f53\u201d\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u547d\u8fd0<\/span> \uff08Dawkins 1976, \u7b2c12\u8282\uff09<\/span>\u5219\u4ee3\u7406\u7ed9\u4e86\u795e\u7ecf\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u6027\u3001\u90e8\u843d\u4e60\u4fd7\uff0c\u6216\u6700\u7ec8\u4ee3\u7406\u7ed9\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u3002\u81ea\u7136\u3001\u5171\u751f\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u548c\u6587\u5316\u9009\u62e9\u878d\u5408\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5f53\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u9ad8\u6548\u56e0\u679c\u8c31\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u901a\u8fc7\u53cd\u601d\u8bb8\u591a\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08Hoover 2001; Morck and Yeung 2011; Varian 2016; Joffe 2017\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e34\u754c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u96ea\u5d29\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027<\/span>\uff08Bak 1996; Watkins et al. 2015\uff09<\/span>\u4e5f\u5f88\u503c\u5f97\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d<\/span>\uff08\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\uff09<\/span>\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u5e03\u5177\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5728\u56fe1\u4e2dP\u89d2\u843d\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u52a8\u673a\u5728\u5404\u4e2a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u81ea\u6211\u5f3a\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u9634\u9633\u6982\u5ff5\u6070\u5982\u5176\u5206\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u3002\u9633\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\u4e0e\u9634\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u80fd\u4e3a\u76f8\u5173\u71b5\u7684\u5206\u89e3\u4e2d\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u533a\uff0c\u5e76\u5b9a\u4e49\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u8bed\u4e49\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u9633\u7684\u5076\u53d1\u6027\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6216\u975e\u5e73\u8861\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u666e\u904d\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u5982\u6700\u5927\u71b5\u4ea7\u751f\u6cd5\u5219\u5047\u8bf4<\/span>\uff08Swenson 1997\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u63cf\u8ff0\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6f5c\u80fd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8fc7\u5ea6\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u3001\u707e\u96be\u3001\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5d29\u6e83\u3001\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45<\/span>\uff08Taleb 2007\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u4e0e\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u76f8\u543b\u5408\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u9633\u529b\u201d\u3002\u5bf9\u9633\u529b\u540e\u679c\u7684\u9006\u6765\u987a\u53d7\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u8bed\u8a00\u4e2d\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u4f1a\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u4ee3\u7406\u201d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5ffd\u89c6\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u8d8b\u52bf<\/span>\uff08\u751a\u81f3\u8fde\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65f6\u673a\u548c\u65b9\u6848\u90fd\u662f\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u5374\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e\u4ee3\u7406<\/span>\uff08\u627f\u53d7\uff09<\/span>\u4e86\u4ea7\u751f\u540e\u679c\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f1a\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5730\u52aa\u529b\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316<\/span>\uff08Zhang et al. 2011\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u679c\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c<\/span>\uff08\u5b83\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\uff09<\/span>\u707e\u96be\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5176\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5e38\u8bc6\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u751f\u7269\u5b66<\/span>\uff08Mayr 2004\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08Pearl 2000\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span>\uff08Hoel 2017\uff1bTononi and Sporns 2003\uff09<\/span>\u90fd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5411\u4e0b\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u663e\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5c06\u53e4\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u9634\u9633\u6982\u5ff5\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u9634\u201d\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u9884\u6fc0\u6001\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u4e86\u5411\u4e0b\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u79cd\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\u5927\u3001\u51e0\u4e4e\u673a\u68b0\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u786e\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4e0e\u5176\u8bf4\u662f\u201c\u66f4\u9ad8\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4ece\u8f83\u4f4e\u5c3a\u5ea6\u593a\u53d6\u4e86\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u201d<\/span>\uff08Wolchover 2017\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u8bf4\u8f83\u4f4e\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u8fd0\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5c06\u76f8\u5f53\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u8ba9\u6e21\u7ed9\u4e86\u90a3\u4e9b\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u9896\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u8fd8\u539f\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8303\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08Kuhn 1970\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u548c\u5e72\u9884\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u6027\u5728\u9634\u9633\u54f2\u5b66\u4e2d\u88ab\u5de7\u5999\u5730\u51f8\u663e\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u8ba9\u4e8b\u7269\u6309\u7167\u5e73\u8861\u5339\u914d\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53d1\u5c55\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e8c\u5143\u6027\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e13\u4e1a\u672f\u8bed\u7ffb\u8bd1\u5bf9\u7167<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

delegated causality\uff1a\u4ee3\u7406\u56e0\u679c<\/span><\/p>\n

emergent phenomena\uff1a\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61<\/span><\/p>\n

autopoiesis\uff1a\u81ea\u521b\u751f<\/a>\uff08\u53c2\u770b\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u6761\uff1ahttps:\/\/wiki.swarma.org\/index.php\/\u81ea\u521b<\/span>\u751f\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

primed\uff1a\u9884\u6fc0\u6001<\/span><\/p>\n

b<\/span>road market\uff1a<\/span>\u5e7f\u4e49\u5e02\u573a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

causal caculus\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u6f14\u7b97<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

causal emergence\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0<\/a>\uff08\u53c2\u770b\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u6761\uff1ahttps:\/\/wiki.swarma.org\/index.php\/\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0<\/span>\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

causal closure principle\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u5c01\u95ed\u539f\u5219<\/span><\/p>\n

causal exclusion principle\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u6392\u4ed6\u539f\u5219<\/span><\/p>\n

Modern Synthesis\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u7efc\u5408\u8bba<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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1.  <\/strong>\u96c6\u667a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u91cd\u78c5\u7efc\u8ff0\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u548c\u6d8c\u73b0<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
2. <\/strong>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6d8c\u73b0\uff1f\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7ed9\u4f60\u7b54\u6848<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
3. <\/strong>\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u8de8\u5c42\u7ea7\u6d8c\u73b0\u4e0e\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5b58\u50a8\u65b9\u5f0f<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
4. <\/strong>\u79d1\u5b66\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u81ea\u7531\u610f\u5fd7\u5417\uff1f<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
5. <\/strong><\/span>\u5f20\u6c5f\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u57fa\u7840\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u53ef\u5fae\u5206\u7f16\u7a0b\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406 | \u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\u5168\u65b0\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
6.<\/strong> \u9f99\u5e74\u5927\u8fd0\u8d77\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u6b63\u5f53\u65f6\uff01\u89e3\u9501\u96c6\u667a\u5168\u7ad9\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5f00\u542f\u65b0\u5e74\u5b66\u4e60\u8ba1\u5212<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
7. <\/strong>\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/section>\n


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\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

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