{"id":49503,"date":"2024-04-06T21:57:40","date_gmt":"2024-04-06T13:57:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=49503"},"modified":"2024-04-06T21:57:40","modified_gmt":"2024-04-06T13:57:40","slug":"pnas%ef%bc%9a%e7%bb%bc%e5%90%88%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e3%80%81%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%92%8c%e7%a2%b3%e7%9a%84%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e6%88%90%e6%9c%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=49503","title":{"rendered":"PNAS\uff1a\u7efc\u5408\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u8bc4\u4f30\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u78b3\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u672c"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aPolicies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8bba\u6587\u671f\u520a\uff1aPNAS<\/em>
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\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2312030121<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u4f17\u591a\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u90fd\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c06\u8bb8\u591a\u7269\u7406\u6216\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u7ebd\u5e26\u8fde\u63a5\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u73af\u5883\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u6bd4\u5982\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u2014\u2014\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5c24\u4e3a\u7a81\u51fa\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u95ee\u9898\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u6df1\u690d\u4e8e\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9700\u6c42\u6211\u4eec\u8fd0\u7528\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u79d1\u5b66\u6765\u5bfb\u627e\u6709\u6548\u4e14\u9ad8\u6548\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u968f\u7740\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u77e5\u8bc6\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u8054\u7ed3\u5404\u4e2a\u533a\u5757\u4ee5\u5f62\u6210\u5168\u9762\u6d1e\u89c1\u5e76\u5236\u5b9a\u9ad8\u6548\u653f\u7b56\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u5206\u6790\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u626e\u6f14\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u6574\u5408\u591a\u9886\u57df\u77e5\u8bc6\u81f3\u4e00\u4e2a\u5185\u90e8\u8fde\u8d2f\u6846\u67b6\u5185\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5f3a\u5927\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\u80fd\u591f\u7528\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5bfb\u627e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6709\u6548\u6027\u9ad8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5e76\u8bc4\u4f30\u53d6\u820d\u4e0d\u540c\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u52a8\u6001\u7efc\u5408\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08DICE\uff09<\/span>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6700\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6574\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5df2\u88ab\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u5e9c\u7528\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u78b3\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u81f4\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u8868\u4e8ePNAS\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u52a8\u6001\u7efc\u5408\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7248\u672c\u2014\u2014DICE-2023\u3002DICE-2023\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4fee\u8ba2\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u5904\u7406\u3001\u78b3\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5757\u3001\u975e\u5de5\u4e1a\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u5904\u7406\u4ee5\u53ca\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u7b49\u91cd\u5927\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u4e14\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u7ec4\u4ef6\u90fd\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u66f4\u65b0\u3002\u663e\u8457\u7684\u4fee\u6539\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u6700\u4f18<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u6700\u9ad8\uff09<\/span>\u6e29\u5ea6\u8def\u5f84\u76ee\u6807\u660e\u663e\u4e0b\u8c03\uff1b\u5b9e\u73b02\u00b0C\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u6210\u672c\u51cf\u5c11\uff1b\u5206\u6790\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5f71\u54cd\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u78b3\u6210\u672c\u4f30\u7b97\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fee\u6539\u57fa\u4e8e\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u62c9\u59c6\u9f50\u589e\u957f\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u6269\u5c55\u5176\u8303\u56f4\u81f3\u5305\u542b\u6c14\u5019\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u907f\u514d\u6c14\u5019\u635f\u5bb3\u6765\u63d0\u9ad8\u672a\u6765\u798f\u7949\u3002\u62c9\u59c6\u9f50\u589e\u957f\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u6700\u4f18\u5316\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u79ef\u7d2f\u8d44\u672c\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u793e\u4f1a\u603b\u798f\u5229\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002DICE-2023\u6a21\u578b\u6574\u5408\u4e86\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0e\u6392\u653e, \u5230\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u635f\u5931\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u5b9a\u7b49\u6240\u6709\u73af\u8282\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6839\u636e\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u63a8\u6f14\u5f97\u5230\u4e09\u4e2a\u6c14\u5019\u653f\u7b56\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u653f\u7b56<\/span>\uff08\u57fa\u51c6\u60c5\u666f\uff09<\/span>\u8fd8\u662f\u6269\u5c55\u540e\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u90fd\u672a\u80fd\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u63a7\u5236\u57282\u00b0C\u6216\u8005\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u6700\u4f18\u6c34\u5e73\u4e4b\u5185\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u653f\u7b56\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5229\u76ca\u6781\u4e3a\u91cd\u5927\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5b9e\u65bd\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u6700\u4f18\u653f\u7b56\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u7ea6\u4e3a120\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5728\u8003\u8651\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u5dee\u5f02\u540e\uff0cDICE-2023\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u78b3\u6210\u672c<\/span>\uff082020\u5e74\u4e3a\u6bcf\u5428\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b366\u7f8e\u5143\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u57fa\u7ebf\u4f30\u7b97\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u8fd1\u671f\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u6570\u503c\u76f8\u5f53\u63a5\u8fd1<\/span>\uff0828-30\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe1 \u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u7684CO2<\/sub> \u6392\u653e\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u51c6\u7ebf\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u5c06\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u73b0\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807\u6240\u9700\u7684\u51cf\u6392\u5f62\u6210\u9c9c\u660e\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u542f\u52a8\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u4e0e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u4ea4\u53c9\u524d\u6cbf<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u200d<\/span>\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
1. <\/strong>Nature\uff1a\u9884\u77e5\u672a\u6765\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u8f68\u8ff9\uff0c\u4e14\u770b\u6c14\u5019-\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u590d\u5408\u53cd\u9988<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
2. <\/strong>PNAS\u901f\u9012\uff1a\u4f4e\u78b3\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
3.<\/strong> \u73af\u4fdd\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u6df7\u6c8c\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u4e1c\u65b9\u667a\u6167\u2014\u2014\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u81ea\u6ee1\u7684\u56de\u5e94<\/a><\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
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4. <\/strong><\/strong><\/span>\u5f20\u6c5f\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u57fa\u7840\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u53ef\u5fae\u5206\u7f16\u7a0b\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406 | \u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\u5168\u65b0\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/strong><\/strong>5.<\/strong> \u9f99\u5e74\u5927\u8fd0\u8d77\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u6b63\u5f53\u65f6\uff01\u89e3\u9501\u96c6\u667a\u5168\u7ad9\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5f00\u542f\u65b0\u5e74\u5b66\u4e60\u8ba1\u5212<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
6. <\/strong>\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/section>\n


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\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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