{"id":52138,"date":"2024-08-19T16:43:29","date_gmt":"2024-08-19T08:43:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=52138"},"modified":"2024-08-19T16:43:29","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T08:43:29","slug":"prx-%e5%89%8d%e6%b2%bf%ef%bc%9a%e5%ae%9a%e9%87%8f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%b4%e7%95%8c%e7%82%b9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=52138","title":{"rendered":"PRX \u524d\u6cbf\uff1a\u5b9a\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aEarly Predictor for the Onset of Critical Transitions in Networked Dynamical Systems<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/journals.aps.org\/prx\/abstract\/10.1103\/PhysRevX.14.031009<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u56fe3. Wilson-Cowan\u795e\u7ecf\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u4e34\u754c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\uff08a\uff09\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d8\u5316\u89c4\u5f8b\u53ca\u8868\u5f81\u4e34\u754c\u7684\u6307\u6807\u5c55\u793a\u3002\uff08b\uff09\u4e0d\u540cLead Distance\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u5c55\u793a\u3002\uff08c\uff09\u5168\u90e8\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e73\u5747\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u968fLead Distance\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe3(a)\u548c\u56fe3(b)\u662f\u4eceWilson-Cowan\u7cfb\u7edf\u6d4b\u8bd5\u96c6\u4e2d\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6837\u4f8b\uff0c\u56fe3(b)\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4ece\u4e0d\u540c\u73af\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u5f00\u59cb\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ea2\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u7740\u5b9a\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ece\u989c\u8272\u6761\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u5f88\u5c0f\u3002\u56fe3(c)\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e86\u968f\u7740\u5f00\u59cb\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u73af\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0e\u4e34\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb<\/span>\uff08Lead Distance\uff09<\/span>\u51cf\u5c0f\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u4e34\u754c\u8f6c\u53d8\u9644\u8fd1\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u9ad8\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u968f\u7740Lead Distance\u9010\u6e10\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e73\u5747\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u8d8b\u4e8e\u5e73\u7a33\uff0c\u5e76\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u5408\u7406\u6c34\u5e73\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u89c2\u6d4b\u566a\u58f0\u662f\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u6240\u6709\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5728\u6240\u6709\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0b\u90fd\u54cd\u5e94\u5230\u5e73\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6587\u4e2d\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e86GIN-GRU\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u6570\u636e\u3001\u89c2\u6d4b\u566a\u58f0\u548c\u77ac\u6001\u6570\u636e\u7684\u9c81\u68d2\u6027<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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    <\/span>\u56fe4. GIN-GRU\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u4ee5\u53ca\u89c2\u6d4b\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u9c81\u68d2\u6027\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4ece\u56fe4\u770b\u51fa\u5373\u4f7f81%\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u88ab\u9690\u85cf\u6216\u8005\u89c2\u6d4b\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u4fe1\u566a\u6bd4\u8fbe\u523035dB\uff0cGIN-GRU\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f9d\u7136\u4fdd\u6301\u7740\u4e0e\u5b8c\u6574\u4e0d\u52a0\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u6570\u636e\u76f8\u5f53\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe5. GIN-GRU\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u4e8e\u77ac\u6001\u6570\u636e\u7684\u9c81\u68d2\u6027\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002\uff08a\uff09\u3001\uff08b\uff09\u7f29\u77ed\u7cfb\u7edf\u6f14\u5316\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\uff08d\uff09\u3001\uff08e\uff09\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u54cd\u5e94\u3002\uff08c\uff09\u3001\uff08f\uff09\u9884\u6d4b\u5e73\u5747\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u968fLead Distance\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe6.\u771f\u5b9e\u975e\u6d32\u690d\u88ab\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\uff08a\uff09\u7528\u6765\u5fae\u8c03\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u3002\uff08b\uff09\u3001\uff08c\uff09\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b9e\u9645\u6811\u6728\u8986\u76d6\u7387\u5c55\u793a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5b9a\u91cf\u4e34\u754c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd8\u6709\u8bf8\u591a\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6ed1\u52a8\u7a97\u53e3\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u76ee\u524d\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e3a20\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u5df2\u7ecf\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\uff0c\u4f46\u503c\u5f97\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u662f\u5728\u4ecd\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u591a\u5c0f\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u5927\u5c0f\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5386\u591a\u6b21\u4e34\u754c\u8f6c\u53d8[8]\uff0c\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e34\u754c\u8f6c\u53d8\u524d\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u6240\u6709\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u6311\u6218\u6027\u4f46\u5f88\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u8282\u70b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u9636\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7f51\u7edc\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8[9]\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c06\u65b9\u6cd5\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u9884\u6d4b\u66f4\u9ad8\u9636\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u5b9e\u9645\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e34\u754c\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u7406\u8bba\u7cfb\u7edf\u6574\u5408\u4ee5\u589e\u52a0\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9002\u7528\u6027\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u672a\u6765\u8003\u8651\u548c\u52aa\u529b\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
[1] M. Scheffer, S. Carpenter, J. A. Foley, C. Folke, and B. Walker, Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems, Nature (London) 413, 591 (2001).<\/span><\/section>\n
[2] M. Scheffer, Critical Transitions in Nature and Society (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2020), Vol. 16.<\/span><\/section>\n
[3] D. Eroglu, M. Tanzi, S. van Strien, and T. Pereira, Revealing dynamics, communities, and criticality from data, Phys. Rev. X 10, 021047 (2020).<\/span><\/section>\n
[4] T. M. Bury, R. Sujith, I. Pavithran, M. Scheffer, T. M. Lenton, M. Anand, and C.T. Bauch, Deep learning for early warning signals of tipping points, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 118, e2106140118 (2021).<\/span><\/section>\n
[5] M. He\u00dfler and O. Kamps, Bayesian on-line anticipation of critical transitions, New J. Phys. 24, 063021 (2022).<\/span><\/section>\n
[6] H. Fan, L.-W. Kong, Y.-C. Lai, and X. Wang, Anticipating synchronization with machine learning, Phys. Rev. Res. 3, 023237 (2021).<\/span><\/section>\n
[7] M. Schr\u00f6der, M. Timme, and D. Witthaut, A universal order parameter for synchrony in networks of limit cycle oscillators, Chaos 27, 073119 (2017).<\/span><\/section>\n
[8] J. J. Lever, I. A. van de Leemput, E. Weinans, R. Quax, V. Dakos, E.H. van Nes, J. Bascompte, and M. Scheffer, Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse, Ecol. Lett. 23, 2 (2020).<\/span><\/section>\n
[9] F. Battiston, E. Amico, A. Barrat, G. Bianconi, G. Ferraz de Arruda, B. Franceschiello, I. Iacopini, S. Ke \u0301fi, V. Latora, Y. Moreno et al., The physics of higher-order interactions in complex systems, Nat. Phys. 17, 1093 (2021).<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u201c\u590d\u6742\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u89c4\u5219\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u89c1\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
1. <\/strong>PNAS\u524d\u6cbf\uff1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f55\u65f6\u8d70\u5411\u5d29\u6e83\uff1f\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5\u5e2e\u52a9\u9884\u8b66\u4e34\u754c\u70b9<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
2. <\/strong>\u62d3\u5c55\u5bf9\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
3. <\/strong>\u300a\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u300b\uff1a\u5173\u4e8e\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e34\u754c\u6027\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\uff5c\u6c64\u8d85\u9662\u58eb\u4f5c\u5e8f\u63a8\u8350<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
4. <\/strong><\/span>\u5f20\u6c5f\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u57fa\u7840\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u53ef\u5fae\u5206\u7f16\u7a0b\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406 | \u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\u5168\u65b0\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/strong>5.<\/strong> \u9f99\u5e74\u5927\u8fd0\u8d77\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u6b63\u5f53\u65f6\uff01\u89e3\u9501\u96c6\u667a\u5168\u7ad9\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5f00\u542f\u65b0\u5e74\u5b66\u4e60\u8ba1\u5212<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n

6. <\/strong>\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/mp-style-type><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5bfc\u8bed \u8bb8\u591a\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u4eba\u4e3a\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e34\u754c\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u5373\u73af\u5883\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u7f13\u6162\u53d8\u5316\u5f15\u53d1\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8f6c\u53d8\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e25\u91cd\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5fc5\u987b\u63d0\u524d\u9884\u6d4b\u4e34\u754c\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u30027\u670815\u65e5\uff0c\u300a\u7269\u7406\u8bc4\u8bbaX\u300b\uff08Physical Review X\uff09\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u540c\u6d4e\u5927\u5b66\u7269\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u9662\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u81ea\u4e3b\u667a\u80fd\u65e0\u4eba\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e25\u94a2\u6559\u6388\u56e2\u961f\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u65e9\u671f\u5b9a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":52129,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52138"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=52138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52138\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/52129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=52138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=52138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=52138"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=52138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}