{"id":53352,"date":"2024-11-02T18:03:27","date_gmt":"2024-11-02T10:03:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=53352"},"modified":"2024-11-02T18:03:27","modified_gmt":"2024-11-02T10:03:27","slug":"%e5%bd%93%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e9%81%87%e8%a7%81%e5%9c%b0%e7%90%83%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%ef%bc%9a%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e3%80%81%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%8e%e4%ba%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=53352","title":{"rendered":"\u5f53\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u9047\u89c1\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Complexity Science Meets Earth System<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<\/span>https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S2095927324007564?via%3Dihub<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u7ecf\u5411\u7ffb\u8f6c\u73af\u6d41<\/span>\uff08AMOC\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7528\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6c14\u5019\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u3002AMOC\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u70ed\u91cf\u5e76\u5f71\u54cd\u6c14\u5019\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u81ea20\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u53f6\u4ee5\u6765AMOC\u6709\u6240\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u957f\u671f\u6c14\u5019\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u8fde\u901a\u6027\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u8bc6\u522b\u6f5c\u5728AMOC\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5b9d\u8d35\u7684\u6d1e\u5bdf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u8fd8\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u96e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u5168\u7403\u964d\u96e8\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u5bfc\u81f4\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u96e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u8fdc\u7a0b\u8fde\u63a5\u6a21\u5f0f<\/strong><\/span>\uff08teleconnections\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u96e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u548c\u5176\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u673a\u5236\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6d1e\u89c1\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u5e2e\u52a9\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u51c6\u5907\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u633d\u6551\u751f\u547d\u5e76\u51cf\u5c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u6c14\u5019\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u662f\u6307\u90a3\u4e9b\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u6270\u52a8\u5c31\u80fd\u4f7f\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u6216\u53d1\u5c55\u53d1\u751f\u8d28\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5173\u952e\u9608\u503c\u3002\u8bc6\u522b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u68c0\u6d4b\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u4fe1\u53f7\u5e76\u7406\u89e3\u4e0d\u540c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u53ca\u5176\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u53ef\u80fd\u89e6\u53d1\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u96e8\u6797\u3001\u9752\u85cf\u9ad8\u539f\u548c\u897f\u5357\u6781\u51b0\u76d6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u9762\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c1979\u5e74\u81f32022\u5e74\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u5f02\u5e38\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u9752\u85cf\u9ad8\u539f\u3001\u5317\u6781\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e1c\u90e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe1. \u590d\u6742\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u95f4\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790<\/span><\/section>\n

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2. \u6574\u5408\u73b0\u4ee3\u4e0e\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u8981\u5168\u9762\u7406\u89e3\u6c14\u5019\u5728\u672c\u5730\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u6df1\u8fdc\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u662f\u5c06\u73b0\u4ee3\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\u4e0e\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u65f6\u4ee3\u8bb0\u5f55\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u4e30\u5bcc\u80cc\u666f\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5982\u536b\u661f\u6d4b\u91cf\u548c\u4eea\u5668\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u6d1e\u5bdf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u6784\u5efa\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u73b0\u4ee3\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u8986\u76d6\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u6355\u6349\u957f\u671f\u53d8\u5f02\u6027\u548c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5168\u65b0\u4e16<\/span>\uff08Holocene\uff09<\/span>\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6e90\u81ea\u51b0\u82af\u3001\u6811\u8f6e\u548c\u6c89\u79ef\u5c42\u7b49\u53e4\u6c14\u5019\u4ee3\u7406\u7269\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8fc7\u53bb\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5173\u952e\u957f\u671f\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u91cd\u5efa\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u964d\u6c34\u548c\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u8de8\u5ea6\u8fbe\u6570\u5343\u5e74\u3002\u6574\u5408\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u6570\u636e\u4f7f\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u80fd\u591f\u6355\u6349\u957f\u671f\u6c14\u5019\u52a8\u6001\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u5173\u952e\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u63a2\u7d22\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u5343\u5e74\u7684\u9065\u76f8\u5173<\/strong><\/span>\uff08\u957f\u8ddd\u79bb\u6c14\u5019\u8054\u7cfb\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6f14\u53d8<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5c06\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u6570\u636e\u6574\u5408\u5230\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u68c0\u6d4b\u5230\u4f20\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u52a8\u6001\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f20\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u901a\u5e38\u57fa\u4e8e\u77ed\u671f\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6574\u5408\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5f02\u6027\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u6c14\u5019\u60c5\u666f<\/span>\uff08\u4ece\u51e0\u5929\u5230\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u89c1\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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3. \u7efc\u5408\u6846\u67b6\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong>\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e\u3001<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u6b63\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u5c06\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\uff09<\/span>\u76f8\u6574\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u6df1\u5316\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6e90\u81ea\u8de8\u8d8a\u5343\u5e74\u7684\u5730\u8d28\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8fc7\u53bb\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5f02\u6027\u548c\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5173\u952e\u89c1\u89e3\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5386\u53f2\u80cc\u666f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u89e3\u6790\u81ea\u7136\u6c14\u5019\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u590d\u6742\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5b83\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u6c14\u5019\u60c5\u666f<\/span>\uff08\u4ece\u51e0\u5929\u5230\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7b49\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u8fde\u63a5\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u6846\u67b6<\/strong>\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u6574\u5408\u7f51\u7edc\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u5b83\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u52a8\u6001\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c1\u89e3\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5148\u8fdb\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5229\u7528\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u6570\u636e\u6765\u5b8c\u5584\u6a21\u62df\u5e76\u5728\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u60c5\u666f\u4e2d\u63d0\u9ad8\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5\u6765\u5904\u7406\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u80fd\u591f\u8bc6\u522b\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5173\u7cfb\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u5411\u91cf\u673a\u548c\u968f\u673a\u68ee\u6797\u7b49\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7528\u4e8e\u901a\u8fc7\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u6765\u5206\u7c7b\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u6c14\u5019\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b97\u6cd5\u4f7f\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u80fd\u591f\u68c0\u6d4b\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u533a\u57df\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5fae\u5999\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u6d1e\u5bdf\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9065\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u63ed\u793a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f7f\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u5730\u7406\u4e0a\u76f8\u8ddd\u9065\u8fdc\u7684\u5730\u533a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u9664\u4e86\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bc6\u522b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u805a\u7c7b\u548c\u964d\u7ef4\u5728\u5185\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5de5\u5177\u5728\u63ed\u793a\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u5185\u7684\u9690\u85cf\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u6839\u636e\u5b83\u4eec\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u5bf9\u533a\u57df\u6216\u8282\u70b9\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u7ec4\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u5148\u9a8c\u77e5\u8bc6\u6216\u6807\u8bb0\u6570\u636e\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u805a\u7c7b\u6280\u672f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7ecf\u5386\u540c\u6b65\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u533a\u57df\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u7ec4\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u964d\u7ef4\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u5982\u53d8\u5206\u81ea\u7f16\u7801\u5668\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5173\u6ce8\u6700\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u6765\u7b80\u5316\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c\u4f7f\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u80fd\u591f\u8bc6\u522b\u901a\u8fc7\u4f20\u7edf\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\u6216\u91cd\u5927\u6c14\u5019\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u957f\u77ed\u671f\u8bb0\u5fc6<\/span>\uff08LSTM\uff09<\/span>\u7f51\u7edc\u7b49\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u6280\u672f\u7279\u522b\u9002\u5408\u5904\u7406\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u52a8\u6001\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f51\u7edc\u53ef\u4ee5\u6a21\u62df\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u548c\u5e8f\u5217\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cLSTM\u5df2\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u6570\u636e\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\u65e9\u671f\u548c\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u9884\u8b66\u3002LSTM\u6240\u5177\u6709\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u590d\u6742\u4e14\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u53ef\u589e\u5f3a\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u6c14\u5019\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u5efa\u6a21\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u7f51\u7edc\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u548c\u9c81\u68d2\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u539f\u6587\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u7406\u89e3\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u5728\u63a8\u8fdb\u6c14\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u6574\u5408\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u65b9\u6cd5\u2014\u2014\u5982\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u2014\u2014\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u5730\u7403\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6574\u5408\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u65f6\u671f\u5230\u73b0\u4ee3\u89c2\u6d4b\u5168\u9762\u4e86\u89e3\u5404\u4e2a\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u533a\u57df\u548c\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u3002\u5c06\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u6280\u672f<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\uff09<\/span>\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53d1\u5c55\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u5236\u5b9a\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u660e\u667a\u7b56\u7565\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u534f\u540c\u4f5c\u7528\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e3a\u51cf\u7f13\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u63d0\u4f9b\u79d1\u5b66\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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[1] Steffen W, Richardson K, Rockstr\u00f6m J, et al. The emergence and evolution of <\/span>Earth system science. Nat Rev Earth Environ 2020;1:54\u201363. <\/span><\/section>\n
[2] Fan J, Meng J, Ludescher J, et al. Statistical physics approaches to the complex <\/span>Earth system. Phys Rep 2021;896:1\u201384. <\/span><\/section>\n
[3] Schellnhuber HJ. Earth system\u2019 analysis and the second Copernican revolution. <\/span>Nature 1999;402:19\u201323. <\/span><\/section>\n
[4] Meng J, Fan J, Ludescher J, et al. Complexity-based approach for El Ni\u00f1o <\/span>magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2020;117:177\u201383. <\/span><\/section>\n
[5] Ludescher J, Martin M, Boers N, et al. Network-based forecasting of climate <\/span>phenomena. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2021;118:e1922872118. <\/span><\/section>\n
[6] Ludescher J, Gozolchiani A, Bogachev M, et al. Improved El Ni\u00f1o forecasting by <\/span>cooperativity detection. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2013;110:11742\u20135.<\/span><\/section>\n
[7] Fan J, Meng J, Ludescher J, et al. Network-based approach and climate change <\/span>benefits for forecasting the amount of Indian monsoon rainfall. J Clim <\/span><\/section>\n
2022;35:1009\u201320. <\/span><\/section>\n
[8] Caesar J, Rahmstorf S, Robinson A, et al. Observed fingerprint of a weakening <\/span>Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature 2018;556:191\u20136. <\/span><\/section>\n
[9] Mheen M, Dijkstra H, Gozolchiani A, et al. Interaction network based early <\/span>warning indicators for the Atlantic MOC collapse. Geophys Res Lett 2013;40:2714\u20139. <\/span><\/section>\n
[10] Boers N, Goswami B, Rheinwalt A, et al. Complex networks reveal global <\/span>pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections. Nature 2019;566:373\u20137. <\/span><\/section>\n
[11] Lenton T, Held H, Kriegler E, et al. Tipping elements in the Earth\u2019s climate <\/span>system. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2008;105:1786\u201393. <\/span><\/section>\n
[12] Liu T, Chen D, Yang L, et al. Teleconnections among tipping elements in the <\/span>Earth system. Nat Clim Chang 2023;13:67\u201374. <\/span><\/section>\n
[13] Chen D, Xu B, Yao T, et al. Assessment of past, present and future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau. Chin Sci Bull 2015;60:3025\u201335. <\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
[14] Jiang J, Zhou T, Qian Y, et al. Precipitation regime changes in High mountain Asia driven by cleaner air. Nature 2023;623:544\u20139.<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
[15] Chen F, Yu Z, Yang M, et al. Holocene moisture evolution in arid central Asia and its out-of-phase relationship with Asian monsoon history. Quat Sci Rev 2008;27:351\u201364.<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n


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\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4ece\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u6781\u7aef\u70ed\u6d6a\uff0c\u5230\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u6d2a\u707e\uff0c\u4ece\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u68ee\u6797\u5927\u706b\uff0c\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u6cb3\u5357\u7684\u7279\u5927\u66b4\u96e8\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u5e38\u6001\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6b63\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u80fd\u611f\u77e5\u7684\u6001\u52bf\u53d1\u751f\u7740\u30022021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u88ab\u6388\u4e88\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\uff0c\u201c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5efa\u6a21\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u53ef\u9760\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u201d\uff0c\u8868\u8fbe\u4e86\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u5173\u5207\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c6\u89d2\u7814\u7a76\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u73af\u5883\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/span>
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\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\uff0c\u91cd\u70b9\u63a2\u8ba8\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7b49\u5b66\u79d1\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u4e0e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u5171\u8bfb\u524d\u6cbf\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u79d1\u7814\u7075\u611f\u3002\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5df2\u5b8c\u7ed3\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u62a5\u540d\u53ef\u52a0\u5165\u793e\u7fa4\u5e76\u89e3\u9501\u56de\u653e\u89c6\u9891\u6743\u9650\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n


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\u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u542f\u52a8\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u4e0e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u4ea4\u53c9\u524d\u6cbf<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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<\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>
<\/section>\n
1. <\/strong>\u5730\u7403\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u7684\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff1a\u4ece\u4e34\u754c\u7ea7\u8054\u5230\u5efa\u7acb\u97e7\u6027<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
2. <\/strong>\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7b80\u53f2\uff1a\u7406\u89e3\u5730\u7403\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u63a2\u7d22\u5386\u7a0b<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
3. <\/strong>Physics Reports\u91cd\u78c5\u7efc\u8ff0\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u63a2\u7d22<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
4. <\/strong><\/span>\u5f20\u6c5f\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u57fa\u7840\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u53ef\u5fae\u5206\u7f16\u7a0b\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406 | \u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\u5168\u65b0\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/strong>5.<\/strong> \u9f99\u5e74\u5927\u8fd0\u8d77\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u6b63\u5f53\u65f6\uff01\u89e3\u9501\u96c6\u667a\u5168\u7ad9\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5f00\u542f\u65b0\u5e74\u5b66\u4e60\u8ba1\u5212<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n

6. <\/strong>\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/mp-style-type><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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