{"id":54368,"date":"2024-12-15T20:08:29","date_gmt":"2024-12-15T12:08:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=54368"},"modified":"2024-12-15T20:08:29","modified_gmt":"2024-12-15T12:08:29","slug":"%e4%bb%8e%e7%bb%9f%e8%ae%a1%e7%89%a9%e7%90%86%e5%88%b0%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%ef%bc%9a%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e4%bb%8e%e5%be%ae%e8%a7%82%e6%8e%a8%e5%af%bc%e5%87%ba%e5%ae%8f%e8%a7%82%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=54368","title":{"rendered":"\u4ece\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u5b8f\u89c2\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\uff1f\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u578b\u8bd5\u56fe\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1a\u662f\u627e\u5230\u6570\u5b66\u516c\u5f0f\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u6784\u5efa\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\uff1f\u662f\u5bfb\u627e\u7edd\u5bf9\u771f\u7406\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u6027\u63cf\u8ff0\uff1f\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u5b8f\u89c2\uff1f\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u5982\u4f55\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\uff1f<\/span>Journal of Physics: Complexity <\/span><\/em>\u6742\u5fd7\u8fd1\u671f\u53d1\u8868\u8457\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud \u5728\u6cd5\u5170\u897f\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u5c31\u804c\u6f14\u8bb2\uff0c\u6587\u4e2d\u4ee5\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u552f\u8c61\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u9690\u55bb\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u73a9\u5177\u6a21\u578b\uff09\u4e09\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u662f\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7b80\u5316\u8868\u5f81\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u975e\u6096\u8bba\u6027\u8868\u5f81\uff1a\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u5f02\u5e38\u3001\u6096\u8bba\u3001\u4f8b\u5916\u548c\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u201d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u6700\u540e\u547c\u5401\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u6548\u5730\u878d\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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Jean-Philippe Bouchaud<\/span> <\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f6d\u6668<\/span> <\/span>| \u8bd1\u8005<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aFrom statistical physics to social sciences: the pitfalls of multi-disciplinarity <\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1ahttps:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2632-072X\/ad104a\/meta<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u57282021\u5e74\u4e8e\u6cd5\u5170\u897f\u5b66\u9662<\/span>\uff08Coll\u00e8ge de France\uff09<\/span>\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u5c31\u804c\u6f14\u8bb2\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u7248\u672c\u3002\u5728\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u53cd\u601d\u4e86\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u56f0\u96be\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u56f0\u96be\u5f80\u5f80\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5173\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u79d1\u5b66\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u7ec8\u8bd5\u56fe\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e34\u65f6\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\uff1f\u662f\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\u771f\u7406\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u6027\u63cf\u8ff0\uff1f\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6d8c\u73b0\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e0d\u66fe\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u610f\u5916\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u5371\u673a\u3001\u6050\u614c\u3001\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u9006\u8f6c\u3001\u8c23\u8a00\u6216\u4fe1\u4ef0\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u65f6\u5c1a\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u65f6\u4ee3\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3001\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u8303\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u901a\u8fc7\u96c6\u4f53\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u4fe1\u4efb\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u4fe1\u4efb\u8981\u4e48\u901a\u8fc7\u4e92\u52a8\u81ea\u6211\u7ef4\u6301\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u8fc5\u901f\u5d29\u584c\u3002\u9644\u5f55\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u6211\u5728\u201c\u591a\u8005\u5f02\u4e5f\u201d<\/span>\uff08More is Different\uff09<\/span>\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u4e0a\u7684\u5f00\u573a\u81f4\u8f9e\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u81f4\u656c Phil Anderson\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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2. \u4ece\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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L\u00e9vy<\/strong> <\/strong>\u578b<\/strong>\u53cd<\/strong>\u5e38\u6269\u6563<\/strong>\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u719f\u6089\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u5176\u6269\u6563\u662f\u7531\u5927\u91cf\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u7d2f\u79ef\u800c\u6210\u3002\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u662f\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u4f4d\u79fb\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b26\u5408\u9ad8\u65af\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u201cL\u00e9vy\u98de\u884c\u201d<\/span>\uff08L\u00e9vy flight\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u7531\u5927\u5c0f\u4e0d\u4e00\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u6b65\u4f10\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u5219\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u89c2\u5bdf\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u603b\u662f\u5c11\u6570\u51e0\u4e2a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8df3\u8dc3\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e86\u603b\u4f4d\u79fb\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u53d7\u5230\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\uff0c\u4f46 L\u00e9vy\u98de\u884c\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u81ea\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684[1]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8fd9\u79cd\u53cd\u5e38\u6269\u6563\u73b0\u8c611990\u5e74\u9996\u6b21\u5728\u6cd5\u56fd\u9ad8\u7b49\u5e08\u8303\u5b66\u9662<\/span>\uff08ENS\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4<\/span>\uff08Laboratoire de Physique Statistique de l\u2019ENS\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u5de8\u578b\u201d\u80f6\u675f\u6eb6\u6db2[2]\u3002\u6211\u6709\u5e78\u80fd\u591f\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e5f\u662f\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6211\u9010\u6e10\u8f6c\u5411\u73b0\u5728\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66<\/strong>\u201d<\/span>\uff08econophysics\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5951\u673a\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u548c\u201c\u751f\u7269\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u201d<\/span>\uff08biophysics\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u201c\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u201d<\/span>\uff08geophysics\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6784\u6210\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u201d\u4e5f\u662f\u4e2a\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u65b0\u8bcd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u524d\u76841987\u5e749\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b0\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u5dde\u5723\u5854\u83f2<\/span>\uff08Santa Fe\uff09<\/span>\u4e3e\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u805a\u96c6\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e0e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae Phil Anderson<\/span>\uff081977\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\uff09<\/span>\u3001Ken Arrow<\/span>\uff081972\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\uff09<\/span>\u548c David Pines<\/span>\uff08\u7814\u7a76\u91cf\u5b50\u6d41\u4f53\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\uff09<\/span>\u5171\u540c\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u662f\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u201d<\/span>\uff08The Economy as an Evolving Complex System\uff09<\/span>[3]\uff0c\u5176\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u5c06\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b0\u9896\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5f15\u5165\u7406\u8bba\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5177\u6709\u8bbd\u523a\u610f\u5473\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c31\u57281987\u5e74\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u4f1a\u8bae\u7ed3\u675f\u51e0\u5468\u540e\u768410\u670819\u65e5\uff0c\u9053\u743c\u65af\u6307\u6570\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u5355\u65e5\u66b4\u8dcc22.6%\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u7684\u7f55\u89c1\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u9ad8\u65af\u5e02\u573a\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4efb\u4f55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65b0\u95fb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u6b64\u6b21\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5d29\u76d8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u9762\u5bf9\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u6beb\u65e0\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u53cd\u5e94\u662f\u60f3\u5230\u4e00\u79cd\u5185\u751f\u7684\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7531\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u56de\u8def\u751f\u6210\u7684\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u62e5\u6709\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f7c\u6b64\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\u2026\u2026\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\u4e0e\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u73b0\u5728\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u7406\u6027\u4e3b\u4f53<\/span>\uff08rational agent\uff09<\/span>\uff0c<\/strong>\u76f8\u53bb\u751a\u8fdc\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u65e0\u9650\u667a\u6167\u80fd\u591f\u8ba9\u5e02\u573a\u59cb\u7ec8\u663e\u793a\u201c\u771f\u5b9e\u201d\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u57fa\u672c\u201d\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ec5\u5f53\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\u624d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u6709\u6548\u4e14\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5b83\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u81ea\u53d1\u5730\u5931\u63a7\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e0\u6839\u636e\u7684\u6050\u614c\u800c\u52a8\u6447\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u63d0\u4f9b\u5173\u4e8e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u201c\u4f60\u4eec\u771f\u7684\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5417\uff1f\u201d <\/em>\u8fd9\u662f Phil Anderson \u57281987\u5e74\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u542c\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u540e\u76f4\u63a5\u800c\u6beb\u4e0d\u7559\u60c5\u7684\u53cd\u5e94[3]\u3002\u51e0\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u9605\u8bfb\u7406\u8bba\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6709\u5173\u8457\u540d\u7684\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af-\u9ed8\u987f<\/span>\uff08Black-Scholes-Merton\uff09<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u6709\u540c\u6837\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u8fd9\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u79d1\u5b66\u6587\u5316\u4e4b\u95f4\u9e3f\u6c9f\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u7f8e\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u8ba9\u6211\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u6df1\u5165\u8ba8\u8bba\u201c\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0d\u540c\u89e3\u91ca\u95f4\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6765\u6e90\uff1ahttps:\/\/bouchaud.substack.com\/p\/what-is-a-good-model<\/span><\/p>\n


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3. \u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u8303\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af-\u9ed8\u987f\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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1995\u5e74\uff0cFisher Black \u4e0d\u5e78\u53bb\u4e16\u3002\u4e24\u5e74\u540e\uff0cMyron Scholes \u548c Robert Merton \u56e0\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08theory of option pricing\uff09<\/span>\u800c\u83b7\u5f97 1997\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956[4]\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba9\u5176\u672c\u8d28\u66f4\u6613\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u6211\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u6b64\u7b80\u8981\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u671f\u6743\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u5408\u7ea6\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u4e3a\u4f60\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6295\u4fdd\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5373\u4f7f\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u4e5f\u627f\u8bfa\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u56de\u8d2d\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u6709\u6743\u6536\u53d6\u591a\u5c11\u4fdd\u8d39\uff1f\u4ece\u73b0\u5728\u8d77\u5230\u672a\u6765\u67d0\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\uff0c\u6bd4\u59821\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u5e94\u91c7\u53d6\u600e\u6837\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u624d\u80fd\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u4f4e\u5176\u627f\u62c5\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af-\u9ed8\u987f\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u540c\u65f6\u660e\u786e\u5730\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0e\u6211\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u770b\u6765\u975e\u5e38\u81ea\u7136\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u6311\u6218\u4e86\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\u5374\u53ef\u80fd\u6666\u6da9\u751a\u81f3\u503c\u5f97\u6000\u7591\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u6b67\u65e2\u53ef\u80fd\u50ac\u751f\u65b0\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u5bfc\u81f4\u76f8\u4e92\u7684\u4e0d\u4fe1\u4efb<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4fdd\u9669\u8d39\u7387\u5e76\u4e0d\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5e74\u5185\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff1b\u65e0\u8bba\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u9488\u5bf9\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u4ef7\u683c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u62a5\u4f5c\u4efb\u4f55\u5047\u8bbe\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u6216\u8bb8\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u60ca\u8bb6\u662f\uff0c\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u53ef\u4ee5\u91c7\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u5bf9\u51b2\u201d<\/span>\uff08hedging\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5b8c\u5168\u907f\u514d\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u660e\u786e\u5047\u8bbe\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ec0\u4e48\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u5931\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7b54\u6848\u5728\u4e8e\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af-\u9ed8\u987f\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u8fd0\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u8fde\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4e4b\u524d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u65e0\u6570\u4e2a\u6781\u5176\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u7684\u53e0\u52a0\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u4ee5\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u8df3\u8dc3\uff1b\u968f\u673a\u6027\u662f\u201c\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u201d\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u6d88\u5931\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e8b\u60c5\u751a\u81f3\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u7cdf\u3002\u4efb\u610f\u4f7f\u7528\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af-\u9ed8\u987f\u6a21\u578b\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u7834\u574f\u6027\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u56de\u8def\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u76841987\u5e74\u80a1\u707e\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u5b8c\u5168\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6096\u8bba\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u5047\u5b9a\u5d29\u76d8\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u5d29\u76d8\u7684\u53d1\u751f\uff01\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u672c\u8eab\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6211\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u521d\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e Christian Walter\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bfb\u8fc7\u6211\u5173\u4e8e\u5de8\u578b\u80f6\u675f\u4e2d L\u00e9vy \u98de\u884c\u7684\u6587\u7ae0[2]\u3002\u4ed6\u5efa\u8bae\u6211\u5c06\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af-\u9ed8\u987f\u6a21\u578b\u63a8\u5e7f\u5230\u201c\u72c2\u91ce\u968f\u673a\u6027\u201d<\/span>\uff08wild randomness\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\u2014\u2014\u6b63\u5982 Beno\u00eet Mandelbrot \u6240\u79f0\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u5373\u968f\u673a\u6027\u5448\u73b0\u539a\u5c3e\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u8868\u57281995\u5e743\u670814\u65e5\u7684\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u62a5\u300b<\/span>\uff08Le Monde\uff09<\/span>\u4e0a\uff0c\u9898\u4e3a\u300a\u884d\u751f\u5e02\u573a\uff1a\u98ce\u9669\u6559\u80b2\u5b66\u300b<\/span>\uff08Les march\u00e9s d\u00e9riv\u00e9s, pour une p\u00e9dagogie du risque<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6700\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u5e76\u672a\u4fc3\u6210\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u6570\u5b66\u754c\u7684\u51b7\u9759\u5bf9\u8bdd\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86 Science & Finance \u7684\u521b\u5efa\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u4e0e Capital Fund Management \u5408\u5e76\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u5c55\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u66ff\u4ee3\u6027\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u201d\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3002\u56de\u987e\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u6211\u4ecd\u7136\u65e0\u6cd5\u786e\u5b9a\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u5bf9\u6297\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u52a0\u901f\u521b\u65b0\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1a\u7a00\u91ca\u751a\u81f3\u627c\u6740\u539f\u521b\u601d\u60f3\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u6b63\u662f\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u96be\u70b9\u6240\u5728\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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4. \u552f\u8c61\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


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\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af-\u9ed8\u987f\u6a21\u578b\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6211\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u552f\u8c61\u201d\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08phenomenological models\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u4e0e\u201c\u57fa\u7840\u201d\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08foundational models\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u201c\u9690\u55bb\u201d\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08metaphorical models\uff09<\/span>\u533a\u5206\u5f00\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u5728\u540e\u6587\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u201c\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u7684\u591a\u4e49\u6027\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u969c\u788d\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f7f\u5b83\u5177\u6709\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u7ec8\u8bd5\u56fe\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1a\u662f\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e34\u65f6\u6027\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\uff1f\u662f\u7edd\u5bf9\u771f\u7406\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u6027\u63cf\u8ff0\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u201c<\/strong>\u552f\u8c61<\/strong>\u201d\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u8bd5\u56fe\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u672f\u8bed\u6765\u8868\u5f81\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u4e9b\u516c\u5f0f\u6216\u201c\u5b9a\u5f8b\u201d\u6765\u603b\u7ed3\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u5de5\u5177\u968f\u540e\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u5404\u79cd\u903b\u8f91\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u4ece\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u5de5\u5177\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6b64\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u63cf\u8ff0\u975e\u725b\u987f\u6d41\u4f53<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u86cb\u9ec4\u9171\u3001\u7389\u7c73\u6dc0\u7c89\u6d46\u6216\u7259\u818f\uff09<\/span>\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3002\u5b83\u89c4\u5b9a\u65bd\u52a0\u7684\u5e94\u529b \u03c3 \u7b49\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e94\u529b\u9608\u503c \u03c3c<\/sub> \uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u526a\u5207\u901f\u7387 \u03b3  \u7684\u5e42\u5f8b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u5b9a\u5f8b\u4ee3\u5165\u63cf\u8ff0\u6db2\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u901a\u7528\u65b9\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7ba1\u9053\u4e2d\u7684\u538b\u964d\uff0c\u5373\u6cf5\u9001\u8fd9\u79cd\u6d41\u4f53\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u89e3\u91ca\u6240\u5047\u5b9a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5b9a\u5f8b\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6b63\u5982 Ren\u00e9 Thom \u66fe\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7406\u89e3<\/strong>\u3002\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b\u5145\u5176\u91cf\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u7ecf\u9a8c\u89c2\u5bdf\u6765\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u53ef\u53d8\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u4e0e\u8be5\u5b9a\u5f8b\u76f8\u5339\u914d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u662f\u51fa\u4e8e\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u65b9\u4fbf\u6027\u800c\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u552f\u8c61\u6a21\u578b\u603b\u662f\u5305\u542b\u4e00\u5b9a\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u53ef\u8c03\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u88ab\u9009\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u201c\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u597d\u201d\u5730\u8868\u793a\u6240\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6a21\u578b\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e5f\u603b\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u503c\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ece\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u5b8c\u5168\u80cc\u79bb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u51e0\u4e2a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u5883\u5730\uff1a\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4e00\u5929\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5730\u8c03\u6574\u89c2\u5bdf\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7cbe\u786e\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u884d\u751f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7b26\u53f7\u4e0a\u5b8c\u5168\u51fa\u9519\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u91cf\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5b83\u4eec\u5374\u5728\u51cf\u5c11\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u901a\u5e38\u7f3a\u4e4f\u57fa\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\u7684\u5408\u7406\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u4ece\u4e2d\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u4e0e\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u6240\u6709\u89c2\u6d4b\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\u6216\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u56de\u5230\u975e\u725b\u987f\u6d41\u4f53\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u591f\u5b8c\u5168\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ec4\u6210\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6d41\u4f53\u7684\u5206\u5b50\u8fd0\u52a8\u6765\u63a8\u5bfc\u6d41\u53d8\u5b66\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/span>\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u5206\u5b50\u8fd0\u52a8\u53d7\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u652f\u914d\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u673a\u5236\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e94\u529b\u9608\u503c \u03c3c \u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5982\u679c\u65bd\u52a0\u7684\u5e94\u529b\u4e0d\u8db3\u591f\u5f3a\uff0c\u6db2\u4f53\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u6d41\u52a8\uff1f\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u5373\u5c06\u5c55\u5f00\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u5b8f\u89c2\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u5fae\u89c2\u201d\u5408\u7406\u89e3\u91ca\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9002\u7528\u8303\u56f4\u53ca\u5176\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u88ab\u63a8\u5230\u5e38\u89c4\u64cd\u4f5c\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5916\u65f6\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5426\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u6548\uff1f\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4f20\u7edf\u5de5\u7a0b\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u7a0b\u4e2d\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5e94\u5bf9\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4e2d\u540c\u6837\u5982\u6b64[6]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af-\u9ed8\u987f\u6a21\u578b\u6b63\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edd\u4f73\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u667a\u529b\u4e0a\u5408\u7406\u7684\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u6570\u5b66\u5de5\u5177\u4f18\u96c5\u3001\u9ad8\u6548\u4e14\u79cd\u7c7b\u4e30\u5bcc\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u5177\u8ba1\u7b97\u5404\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u660e\u663e\u7684\u975e\u9ad8\u65af\u4e8b\u4ef6\u89c6\u800c\u4e0d\u89c1\u3002\u572890\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u6821\u51c6\u65f6\u53bb\u9664\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u786e\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u96f6\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8303\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e00\u8303\u5f0f\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e861987\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u707e\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u6b21\u80a1\u707e\u6b63\u597d\u4e0e\u5176\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u76f4\u63a5\u77db\u76fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4e4b\u524d\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u8303\u5f0f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4e0d\u53ef\u4f4e\u4f30\uff1a\u5b83\u4eec\u5f71\u54cd\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\uff0c\u5e76\u5851\u9020\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u5fae\u89c2\u201d\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5177\u6709<\/strong>\u8868\u8ff0\u6027<\/strong>\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5371\u9669\u6027\u4f1a\u88ab\u653e\u5927<\/strong>\uff1b\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u6a21\u578b\u672c\u8eab\u6210\u4e3a\u67d0\u4e9b\u4e13\u4e1a\u6216\u5236\u5ea6\u5b9e\u8df5\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4ee5\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af-\u9ed8\u987f\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f3a\u5931\u4f46\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5bf9\u51b2\u7b56\u7565\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u53cd\u9988<\/strong>\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u672c\u8eab\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u67cf\u62c9\u56fe\u5f0f\u89c2\u70b9\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u4e5f\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u751a\u81f3\u81f3\u4eca\u4ecd\u76f8\u4fe1\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4e70\u5356\u53cc\u65b9\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u53cd\u9988\u56de\u8def\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982[6]\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u52a0\u201c\u5fae\u89c2\u201d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5f62\u6210\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u51ed\u7a7a\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u6216\u8bb8\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u65e9\u53d1\u73b0\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af-\u9ed8\u987f\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5185\u5728\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u7ed3\u8bba\u5fc5\u987b\u5bf9\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u5c0f\u5e45\u53d8\u5316\u5177\u6709\u7a33\u5065\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u5f88\u5c11\u5b8c\u5168\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7b80\u5316\u8868\u5f81\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u5f15\u5bfc\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u662f\u73b0\u5b9e\uff08The map is not the territory\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u786e\u4fdd\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b80\u5316\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8fdd\u80cc\u521d\u8877\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u975e\u6096\u8bba\u6027\u8868\u5f81\uff1a\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u5f02\u5e38\u3001\u6096\u8bba\u3001\u4f8b\u5916\u548c\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u201d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5b58\u5728<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/h1>\n

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<\/section>\n

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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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5. \u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u201c\u9690\u55bb\u201d\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u552f\u8c61\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u4e0e\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u79cd\u76ee\u6807\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7c7b\u578b\u5e76\u5b58\uff0c\u4e14\u5e38\u5e38\u4e92\u76f8\u8865\u5145\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span>\uff08foundational models\uff09<\/span>\u66f4\u5177\u96c4\u5fc3\uff1a\u5b83\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u63d0\u51fa\u63cf\u8ff0\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u4e34\u65f6\u65b9\u7a0b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5c1d\u8bd5\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u7406\u5316\u3001\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u548c\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u901a\u8fc7\u5404\u79cd\u903b\u8f91\u548c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba<\/strong>\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u73bb\u5c14-\u62c9\u585e\u798f\u5fb7<\/span>\uff08Bohr-Rutherford\uff09<\/span>\u6c22\u539f\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u539f\u5b50\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e26\u6b63\u7535\u7684\u539f\u5b50\u6838\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d7\u9650\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u8f68\u9053\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u7535\u5b50\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c\u800c\u8f68\u9053\u662f\u6839\u636e\u89d2\u52a8\u91cf\u91cf\u5b50\u5316\u6761\u4ef6\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u96cf\u5f62\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u7406\u6027\u4e3b\u4f53\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u96c4\u5fc3\u52c3\u52c3\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8d77\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u6709\u5173\u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u5404\u79cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e3b\u4f53\u8ba4\u77e5\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u4f17\u591a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bc1\u636e\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5f3a\u70c8\u8d28\u7591\uff1a\u9664\u975e\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6216\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u4f1a\u88ab\u5e73\u5747\u5316\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u6765\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u4e8b\u60c5\u5c31\u201c\u5982\u540c\u201d\u4e3b\u4f53\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u9644\u52a0\u5047\u8bbe\u771f\u7684\u5408\u7406\u5417\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u8fd9\u518d\u6b21\u5f15\u51fa\u4e86\u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u5230\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fd9\u4e00\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u5927\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u4f1a\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u5728\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u504f\u5dee\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u88ab\u653e\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u88ab\u5e73\u5747\u5230\u96f6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u8c08\u8c08\u4e00\u4e9b\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\u7279\u522b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6211\u5efa\u8bae\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u9690\u55bb\u201d\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span>\uff08metaphorical models\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e5f\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u73a9\u5177\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u201d<\/span>\uff08toy-models\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5e76\u4e0d\u8bd5\u56fe\u8be6\u7ec6\u89e3\u91ca\u67d0\u4e00\u89c2\u5bdf\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8bd5\u56fe\u7a81\u51fa\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u7cbe\u786e\u6570\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u96be\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u673a\u5236\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5316\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u751a\u81f3\u770b\u4f3c\u8352\u8c2c\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5374\u5e76\u975e\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\uff0c\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5f88\u96be\u5f97\u5230\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4f3c\u4e4e\u80fd\u591f\u89e3\u91ca\u67d0\u79cd\u771f\u5b9e\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9690\u55bb\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u60f3\u8c61\u529b\u7684\u50ac\u5316\u5242\uff0c\u662f\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u62d0\u6756<\/strong>\u3002\u5b83\u901a\u8fc7\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u60c5\u5883\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u601d\u8003\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u5b83\u542f\u53d1\u6211\u4eec\u53bb\u8fdb\u884c\u5176\u4ed6\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u6216\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5426\u5b9a\u6216\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u673a\u5236\u3002\u9690\u55bb\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u9010\u6b65\u88ab\u4e30\u5bcc\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53d8\u5f97\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u9645\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u539f\u59cb\u7248\u672c\u4e2d\uff0c\u9690\u55bb\u6a21\u578b\u5e76\u975e\u65e8\u5728\u6839\u636e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8fdb\u884c\u201c\u6821\u51c6\u201d\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6982\u5ff5\u6027\u7684\u63d0\u8bae\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u9996\u5148\u5728\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u5f97\u5230\u786e\u8ba4\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u6839\u636e\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u5728\u5b9a\u91cf\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8fd9\u79cd\u6e10\u8fdb\u5f0f\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u5b66\u79d1\u4e2d\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b66\u79d1\u4e2d\u5374\u88ab\u5f3a\u70c8\u62d2\u7edd\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u4e0e\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u5bf9\u7167\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5f31\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd9\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4e0d\u6025\u4e8e\u63a8\u8fdb\u7814\u7a76\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u613f\u671b\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u9996\u5148\u786e\u8ba4\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u76f8\u5173\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5168\u529b\u8c03\u6574\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u610f\u5473\u7740\u534a\u9014\u653e\u5f03\u8fd9\u4e00\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u72af\u9519\u7684\u81ea\u7531\uff0c\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u6536\u83b7\u5bcc\u6709\u6210\u679c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u9690\u55bb\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u7ec8\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u8303\u5f0f\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c31\u662f Hopfield \u6a21\u578b<\/strong> [7]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u6781\u5176\u7b80\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u63cf\u8ff0\u795e\u7ecf\u5143\u96c6\u5408\u5982\u4f55\u80fd\u591f\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u8bb0\u5fc6\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5355\u72ec\u7684\u795e\u7ecf\u5143\u5f53\u7136\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u7684\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u795e\u7ecf\u5143\u201d\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u964b\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u795e\u7ecf\u7ec6\u80de\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u5f88\u96be\u63a5\u53d7\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8868\u5f81\u548c\u73b0\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u5173\u8054\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cHopfield \u6a21\u578b\u5e76\u975e\u65e8\u5728\u57fa\u4e8e\u795e\u7ecf\u751f\u7406\u5b66\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u201c\u6821\u51c6\u201d\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0cHopfield \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u8bba\u6587\u622a\u81f32023\u5e74\u5df2\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7 26,000 \u6b21\u5f15\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e00\u95e8\u65b0\u5b66\u79d1\u2014\u2014\u8ba1\u7b97\u795e\u7ecf\u79d1\u5b66<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b66\u79d1\u6b63\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u771f\u5b9e\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u5927\u8111\u5de5\u4f5c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u8457\u540d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u7ef4\u683c\u7eb3\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Wigner model\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0\u542b\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u6838\u5b50<\/span>\uff08\u8d28\u5b50\u548c\u4e2d\u5b50\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u539f\u5b50\u6838[8]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u54c8\u5bc6\u987f\u91cf\u8fc7\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u7ea7\u7684\u89e3\u6790\u89e3\u3002Eugene Wigner \u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u7684\u77e9\u9635\u66ff\u4ee3\u6838\u5b50\u7684\u52a8\u80fd\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u80fd\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u77e9\u9635\u5143\u7d20\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u9009\u62e9\u7684\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u9075\u5b88\u521d\u59cb\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u3002\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u968f\u673a\u77e9\u9635\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u503c\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0e\u91cd\u6838\u7684\u80fd\u8c31\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6df7\u6c8c\u91cf\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u543b\u5408\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u7cbe\u786e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

Wigner \u8fd9\u4e00\u57fa\u4e8e\u76f4\u89c9\u800c\u975e\u6f14\u7ece\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u6fc0\u8fdb\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ff7\u4eba\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u5206\u652f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff1a\u968f\u673a\u77e9\u9635\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Random Matrix Theory\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u5982\u4eca\u62e5\u6709\u4f17\u591a\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528[9]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

Wigner \u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u8fd8\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6548\u4eff\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 Robert May <\/strong>\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>[10]\u3002Robert May \u5047\u8bbe\u7269\u79cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u4ed6\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5f53\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u65f6\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u6b64\u524d\u4eba\u4eec\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u9ad8\u751f\u6001\u591a\u6837\u6027\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u66fe\u8ba4\u4e3a\u94f6\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5206\u6563\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u6563\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4e5f\u52a9\u957f\u4e86\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e27\u5931\u7684\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u4f8b\u59822008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3002May \u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e8e1972\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u4e00\u7bc7\u6807\u9898\u4e3a\u300a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u5417\u300b<\/span>\uff08Will a complex system be stable<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4ec5\u4e00\u9875\u534a\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d[10]\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5047\u8bbe\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5316\u751a\u81f3\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5374\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\u2014\u2014\u7406\u8bba\u751f\u6001\u5b66<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f Bernard Derrida \u7684\u968f\u673a\u80fd\u91cf\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Random Energy Model\uff09<\/span>[11]\u3002Derrida \u5047\u8bbe\u6db2\u4f53\u4e2d\u5206\u5b50\u6784\u578b\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6784\u578b\u90fd\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\u51e0\u4e4e\u8352\u8c2c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u4ec5\u6539\u53d8\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u5b50\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6240\u5f97\u6784\u578b\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u5e94\u4e0e\u521d\u59cb\u6784\u578b\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5fb7\u91cc\u8fbe\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u73bb\u7483\u76f8\u53d8\uff0c\u5176\u7279\u6027\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002Derrida \u4e8e1980\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u7ed3\u6784\u73bb\u7483\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u968f\u673a\u4e00\u9636\u76f8\u53d8\u201d<\/span>\uff08Random First Order Transition\uff09<\/span>\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u9886\u57df\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u5e94\u7528<\/span>\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\u4f8b\u5982[12]\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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6. \u4ece\u4e2a\u4f53\u5230\u96c6\u4f53<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u7279\u522b\u60f3\u63d0\u75312005\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b Thomas Schelling \u53d1\u660e\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u9690\u55bb\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u57ce\u5e02\u9694\u79bb\u73b0\u8c61<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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Schelling \u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5bf9\u6211\u4eca\u5929\u4ee5\u53ca\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u60f3\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u5c24\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u5fae\u89c2\u52a8\u673a\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u884c\u4e3a\u300b<\/span>\uff08Micromotives and Macrobehavior<\/em>\uff09<\/span>[13]\u2014\u2014\u4e66\u540d\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u6807\u9898\u2014\u2014\u6b63\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u6211\u591a\u6b21\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u5230\u5b8f\u89c2\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u8fd9\u6761\u8def\u5f84\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u8d21\u732e\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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Schelling \u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u57fa\u4e8e<\/strong>\u4e3b\u4f53<\/strong>\u7684\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span>\uff08agent-based models\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u8bd5\u56fe\u57fa\u4e8e\u5927\u91cf\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u3001\u5f02\u8d28\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u53ca\u5176\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u6765\u91cd\u5efa\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5373\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u90fd\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u4f53\u8a00\u884c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u65e0\u8bba\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5206\u6790\u662f\u5426\u7406\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3001\u76f8\u53d8\u548c\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73b0\u8c61\u5bf9\u7406\u89e3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u4ecd\u672a\u88ab\u5145\u5206\u8003\u8651\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u8fd9\u4e00\u6838\u5fc3\u4e3b\u9898\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u56de\u5230 Schelling \u8bd5\u56fe\u7528\u5176\u7b80\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u4ed6\u5047\u8bbe\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u7b49\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u793e\u533a\u4e2d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u7b49\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u793e\u533a\u751f\u6d3b\u8d28\u91cf\u4f18\u4e8e\u8fc7\u4e8e\u62e5\u6324\u6216\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7a00\u758f\u7684\u793e\u533a\u3002\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u6240\u6709\u793e\u533a\u90fd\u8fbe\u5230\u4e2d\u7b49\u5bc6\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u4e2a\u4f53\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u611f\u5230\u6ee1\u610f\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u533a\u6bd4\u76ee\u524d\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u793e\u533a\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u7406\u60f3\u5bc6\u5ea6\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5c45\u6c11\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u642c\u8fc1\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u51b3\u7b56\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u7684\uff1a\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u540e\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u793e\u533a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u62e5\u6324\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u5219\u5b8c\u5168\u88ab\u5e9f\u5f03\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u793e\u533a\u90fd\u8fbe\u5230\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u89c1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u5b8c\u5168\u8fdd\u53cd\u76f4\u89c9\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u65e0\u610f\u7684\u201d\u9694\u79bb\u662f\u4e3b\u4f53\u81ea\u6211\u4e2d\u5fc3\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u4e2d\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6db2-\u6c14\u76f8\u53d8\u7c7b\u6bd4\u5f97\u5230\u4e25\u683c\u8bc1\u660e<\/strong> <\/strong>[15]\u3002Schelling \u7684\u9694\u79bb\u73b0\u8c61\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u6db2-\u6c14\u76f8\u5206\u79bb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cSchelling \u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e9a\u5f53\u00b7\u65af\u5bc6\u201c\u770b\u4e0d\u89c1\u7684\u624b\u201d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u4f8b\uff1a\u4e2a\u4f53\u8ffd\u6c42\u81ea\u8eab\u5229\u76ca\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u96c6\u4f53\u798f\u5229\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\uff01\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5178\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6216\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u7406\u6027\u4e2a\u4f53\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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Schelling \u7684\u6a21\u578b\u548c Hopfield \u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u7684\u201c\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u201d\uff1a\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5b8c\u5168\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u6b63\u5982 Phil Anderson \u5728\u4ed61972\u5e74\u90a3\u7bc7\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u300a\u591a\u8005\u5f02\u4e5f\u300b<\/span>\uff08More is Different<\/em>\uff09<\/span>[16]\u4e2d\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff1a\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u53e0\u52a0<\/strong>[9]\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u7684<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u53c2\u89c1[17]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u76f8\u53d8\uff1a\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c34\u5206\u5b50\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u4f460\u00b0C\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u51b0\u548c0\u00b0C\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6db2\u6001\u6c34\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5374\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u6db2\u6001\u6c34\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u7684\u3001\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u51b0\u662f\u767d\u8272\u7684\u3001\u575a\u786c\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6211\u4eec\u975e\u5e38\u719f\u6089\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u5e38\u5e38\u5ffd\u7565\u5b83\u8fdd\u53cd\u76f4\u89c9\u3001\u8fd1\u4e4e\u5947\u8ff9\u822c\u7684\u672c\u8d28\uff1a\u5206\u5b50\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bfc\u81f4\u771f\u6b63\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8d85\u6d41\u6027\u6216\u8d85\u5bfc\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u6781\u5176\u58ee\u89c2\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u9690\u55bb\u6a21\u578b\u5c24\u5176\u5177\u6709\u542f\u53d1\u6027\uff1a\u5b83\u4eec\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u7406\u89e3\u90a3\u4e9b\u8d85\u51fa\u60f3\u8c61\u529b\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8bb0\u5fc6\uff0c\u5982\u540c\u610f\u8bc6\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u96c6\u4f53\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u5355\u4e2a\u795e\u7ecf\u5143\u7684\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c Hopfield \u6a21\u578b\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u73b0\u8c61\u4e5f\u4f1a\u81ea\u53d1\u5730\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u52a8\u7269\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u533a\u4e2d\uff1a\u6bd4\u5982\u6210\u7fa4\u7684\u690b\u9e1f[18]\u6216\u9c7c\u7fa4\u3001\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u540c\u6b65\u95ea\u70c1\u7684\u8424\u706b\u866b\u3001\u4f53\u80b2\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u4eba\u6d6a\u201d<\/span>\uff08Ola\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u96c6\u4f53\u6027\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u75be\u75c5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u5728\u9ea6\u52a0\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u81f4\u547d\u4eba\u7fa4\u62e5\u6324\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u540e\u8005\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u4eba\u7fa4\u5bc6\u5ea6\u8db3\u591f\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f1a\u6d88\u5931\u5e76\u878d\u5408\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7269\u8d28\u201d\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5f39\u6027\u4ecb\u8d28\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u538b\u529b\u6ce2\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f20\u64ad[20]\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u5728\u5bc6\u5ea6\u8fc7\u4f4e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u4ec5\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u51e0\u4eba\u3002\u6ce2\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u8d85\u8d8a\u67d0\u4e2a\u5bc6\u5ea6\u9608\u503c\u65f6\u624d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8fd9\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5835\u585e<\/strong>\u76f8<\/strong>\u53d8<\/strong><\/span>\uff08jamming transition\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb20\u5e74\u91cc\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76[21]\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e0e\u4e4b\u524d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u975e\u725b\u987f\u6d41\u4f53\u4e2d\u4e34\u754c\u5e94\u529b\u7684\u51fa\u73b0<\/span>\uff08\u89c1\u516c\u5f0f1\uff09<\/span>\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u538b\u529b\u6ce2\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u4f1a\u805a\u96c6\u5e76\u6781\u7aef\u5730\u538b\u7f29\u4eba\u7fa4\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u65e0\u6cd5\u9003\u8131\u3002\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e0d\u518d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u60c5\u613f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f9d\u7136\u4f20\u64ad\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6ce2\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6ce2\u53c8\u662f\u7531\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u8fd0\u52a8\u6240\u751f\u6210\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6ce2\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b80\u5316\u4e3a\u57fa\u672c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u76f8\u52a0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u3002\u4eba\u7fa4\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5916\u63a8\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e2a\u4f53\u5411\u96c6\u4f53\u7684\u201c\u8f6c\u5316\u201d\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u662f\u7406\u89e3\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u6839\u672c\u8981\u7d20<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73b0\u8c61\u5728\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7528\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u65f6\u662f\u6beb\u65e0\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6a21\u4eff\u548c\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684<\/strong>\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4f55\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u6216\u793e\u4f1a\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u6324\u5151\uff0c\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u9006\u8f6c\uff0c\u8c23\u8a00\u6216\u4fe1\u4ef0\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u65f6\u5c1a\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u65f6\u4ee3\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u4e43\u81f3\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3001\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u8303\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u4ece\u96c6\u4f53\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\/\u6216\u4fe1\u4efb\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u4fe1\u4efb\u53ef\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u4e92\u52a8\u81ea\u6211\u7ef4\u6301\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5feb\u901f\u5d29\u584c\u3002\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u7406\u89e3\u67d0\u4e9b\u653f\u515a\u5728\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u9738\u6743\u4e4b\u540e\u7a81\u7136\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6587\u5316\u8868\u5f81\u7684\u5f7b\u5e95\u8f6c\u53d8\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5c31\u50cf\u5fd2\u4fee\u65af\u4e4b\u8239\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6240\u6709\u90e8\u4ef6\u9010\u6e10\u88ab\u66ff\u6362\uff0c\u5b83\u4f9d\u7136\u4fdd\u6301\u5176\u8eab\u4efd\u3002\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6587\u5316\u3001\u4e60\u4fd7\u548c\u60ef\u4f8b\u5c5e\u4e8e\u96c6\u4f53\u800c\u975e\u4e2a\u4f53\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u624d\u5f97\u4ee5\u4f20\u627f\u548c\u5ef6\u7eed\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2a\u4f53\u672c\u8eab\u5df2\u7ecf\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/strong>\u4f46\u4e5f\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u96c6\u4f53\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u548c\u5171\u8bc6\u6709\u65f6\u7a81\u7136\u4f1a\u88ab\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u518d\u88ab\u63a5\u53d7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u9690\u55bb\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u96c6\u4f53\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3001\u4fe1\u4efb\u6216\u4e0d\u4fe1\u4efb\u662f\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ea\u5728\u6709\u9650\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u6c34\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u624d\u4f1a\u53d8\u4e3a\u51b0\u4e00\u6837[17]\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6761\u4ef6\u6216\u5bf9\u5176\u611f\u77e5\u7684\u5fae\u5c0f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7cfb\u7edf\u9677\u5165\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u96c6\u4f53\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u7834\u574f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9690\u55bb\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f18\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u6784\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u89c6\u5176\u4e3a\u7406\u6240\u5f53\u7136\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u73af\u5883\u5e76\u975e\u7531\u5916\u90e8\u529b\u91cf\u51b3\u5b9a\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u7531\u5171\u8bc6\u5851\u9020\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5171\u8bc6\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u81ea\u53d1\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u5f3a\u52a0\u7684\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u51b0\u5728\u52a0\u70ed\u52300\u00b0C\u4ee5\u4e0a\u65f6\u4f1a\u878d\u5316\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5f53\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u6211\u4eec\u5c1a\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u96c6\u4f53\u7684\u201c\u8bed\u8a00\u201d\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u5146\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7a81\u7136\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c2008\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u88ab\u8bb8\u591a\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e3a\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u4fe1\u4efb\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u5f53\u65f6\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d Ben Bernanke [23]\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u5ba2\u89c2\u201d\u7269\u8d28\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u4e4b\u524d\u63d0\u5230\u76841987\u5e74\u80a1\u707e\u7c7b\u4f3c\u3002\u5df4\u62c9\u514b\u00b7\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c<\/span>\uff08Barack Obama\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u5c31\u804c\u6f14\u8bf4\u4e2d\u4e5f\u8868\u73b0\u4e86\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u731b\u70c8\u7a0b\u5ea6\u611f\u5230\u56f0\u60d1\u548c\u9707\u60ca\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5de5\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6bd4\u5371\u673a\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u66f4\u4f4e\uff1b\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u521b\u9020\u529b\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u51cf\u9000\uff1b\u6211\u4eec\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u4e5f\u5e76\u4e0d\u6bd4\u4e0a\u5468\u4f4e\u2026\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6210\u529f\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u5de5\u7a0b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u53c2\u4e0e\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u5efa\u7acb\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u6050\u614c\uff1f\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u96c6\u4f53\u73b0\u8c61\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u673a\u5236\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u4ee5\u53ca\u5065\u5eb7\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u66f4\u662f<\/strong>\u81ea\u6211<\/strong>\u653e\u5927\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u4eba\u7fa4\u975e\u7406\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6e29\u5e8a<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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7. \u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u76f8\u53d8\u8303\u5f0f\u4e3a\u89e3\u91ca\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u3001\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u6bd4\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5185\u751f\u6027\u800c\u975e\u5916\u751f\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u67d0\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6559\u8bad\uff1a\u5bf9\u6700\u4f18\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d8\u5f97\u8106\u5f31<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u6253\u7b97\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u8bb2\u5ea7\u4e2d\u63a2\u8ba8\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u9898\u4e3a\u300a\u591a\u8005\u5f02\u4e5f\u300b<\/span>\uff08More is Different<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5411 Anderson \u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u81f4\u656c<\/span>\uff08\u89c1\u9644\u5f55\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728 Anderson \u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u8005\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u5f71\u5b50\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728 John Maynard Keynes \u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b\u548c\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u601d\u8003\u603b\u662f\u8ba9\u6211\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\u3002Keynes \u65e9\u5df2\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u9884\u89c1\u4e86\u96c6\u4f53\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u4ed6\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u2026\u2026\u6709\u673a\u7edf\u4e00\u3001\u79bb\u6563\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u603b\u548c\uff0c\u2026\u2026\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5747\u5300\u548c\u540c\u8d28\u8fde\u7eed\u4f53\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9 Keynes \u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u201c\u6709\u673a\u7684\u201d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u96c6\u4f53\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4e0e\u201c\u539f\u5b50\u7684\u201d\u76f8\u5bf9\u3002\u540e\u8005\u6307\u7684\u662f\u4e2a\u4f53\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u53e0\u52a0\uff0c\u4e0d\u6d89\u53ca\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u65b0\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u7ad9\u5728\u5de8\u4eba\u7684\u80a9\u8180\u4e0a\uff0c\u547c\u5401\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8fdb\u884c\u6709\u6548\u878d\u5408\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56de\u5230\u6211\u5f00\u7bc7\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u5e76\u975e\u5fc5\u7136\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u7684\u9009\u62e9<\/strong>\u3002\u6211\u60f3\u5f15\u7528\u4e00\u7bc7\u65f6\u4efb\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6 Andy Haldane \u7684\u6587\u7ae0[26]\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u53d8\u5f97\u5c01\u95ed\u7684\uff1f\u201d\u7684\u6bb5\u843d\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c\u5f53\u57282006\u5e74\u88ab\u95ee\u53ca\u662f\u5426\u540c\u610f\u2018\u603b\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f18\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u5b66\u79d1\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u2019\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u65f6\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd160%\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\u5f3a\u70c8\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u3002\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4ecd\u7136\u56f0\u96be\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u81ea2008\u5e74\u5371\u673a\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5371\u673a\u5c06\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u91cd\u65b0\u63a8\u5230\u4e86\u524d\u9762\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u6b63\u5f0f\u548c\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u5df2\u7ecf\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7ecf\u5408\u7ec4\u7ec7<\/span>\uff08OECD\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c<\/span>\uff08Bank of England\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u5185\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eab\u6709\u76db\u8a89\u7684\u673a\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bb2\u5ea7\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5951\u673a\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5f3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u50ac\u751f\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9879\u76ee\u5e76\u53d1\u660e\u65b0\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u4eca\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bb2\u5e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u552f\u8c61\u7684\u3001\u9690\u55bb\u7684\u8fd8\u662f\u57fa\u7840\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5b83\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u54ea\u6015\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5c1d\u8bd5\u9632\u6b62\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u707e\u96be\u518d\u6b21\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u6216\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5904\u7406\u90a3\u4e9b\u65e0\u7591\u5c06\u518d\u6b21\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u707e\u96be\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u9644\u5f55\uff1a\u591a\u8005\u5f02\u4e5f<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6211\u5728\u6cd5\u5170\u897f\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u7cfb\u5217\u8bb2\u5ea7\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3a\u671f\u4e24\u5929\u7684\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u201cMore is Different\u201d<\/span>\uff08\u591a\u8005\u5f02\u4e5f\uff09<\/span>\u5706\u6ee1\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u6c47\u805a\u4e86\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u56f4\u7ed5\u5371\u673a\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u5c55\u5f00\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u6211\u5728\u8fd9\u6b21\u96be\u5fd8\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e2d\u7684\u7b80\u77ed\u5f00\u573a\u81f4\u8f9e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6b22\u8fce\u6765\u5230\u201cMore Is Different\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6d3b\u52a8\u65e2\u662f\u5bf9 Phil Anderson \u53ca\u51761972\u5e74\u90a3\u7bc7\u540c\u540d\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u81f4\u656c\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u6211\u5728\u5185\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u5728\u8bb2\u5ea7\u4e2d\u8bd5\u56fe\u4f20\u8fbe\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u4f53\u73b0\uff1a\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e24\u5929\u9080\u8bf7\u4e86\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e0d\u540c\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u8bb2\u8005\uff1a\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5173\u4e8e Phil Anderson\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e8e2020\u5e743\u6708\u53bb\u4e16\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e3e\u529e\u8fd9\u6b21\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4ed6\u5e76\u4e0d\u50cf\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u3001\u8d39\u66fc\u3001\u56fe\u7075\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed620\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5929\u624d\u90a3\u6837\u4e3a\u516c\u4f17\u6240\u719f\u77e5\uff0c\u4f46 Anderson \u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u82f1\u96c4\u3002\u4ece\u6211\u5f00\u59cb\u653b\u8bfb\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u5e76\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u4ed6\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u4e4b\u4e00\u2014\u2014\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\u5c40\u57df\u5316<\/span>\uff08Anderson\u2019s localization\uff09<\/span>\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u6211\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u5b9e\u8df5\uff0c\u4e5f\u6b63\u56e0\u6b64\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u4ed6\u5f97\u5230\u4e861977\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8bf4\u4ed6\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u8d62\u5f97\u81f3\u5c11\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u9879\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u5e76\u4e0d\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u4e00\u9879\u662f\u4e3a\u7ea6\u745f\u592b\u68ee\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08Josephson effect\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u662f\u4e3a\u5e0c\u683c\u65af\u73bb\u8272\u5b50<\/span>\uff08Higgs boson\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee-\u5e0c\u683c\u65af\u673a\u5236<\/span>\uff08Anderson-Higgs mechanism\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u4e86\u89e3\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u4e8e\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u8d21\u732e\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u6211\u5f3a\u70c8\u63a8\u8350 Andrew Zangwill \u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8457\u4f5c A Mind Over Matter<\/em><\/span>\uff08\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5185\u5bb9\u90e8\u5206\u501f\u9274\u4e86\u8be5\u4e66\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\u4f20\u8bb0  A Mind Over Matter<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4ed6\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5174\u8da3\u4e4b\u5e7f\u5b9e\u5728\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u53f9\u30021991\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u4e0e\u7c92\u5b50\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6 Steven Weinberg \u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u8fa9\u8bba\u4e2d\u8fd9\u6837\u63cf\u8ff0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5174\u8da3\uff1a\u201c\u751f\u547d\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8d77\u6e90\u7684\uff1f\u5927\u8111\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\uff1f\u514d\u75ab\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728<\/em>\u5173\u4e8e<\/em>\u7ecf\u6d4e<\/em>\u5b66<\/em>\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\uff1f\u201d<\/em>\u4f60\u4f1a\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3b\u9898\u663e\u7136\u90fd\u4e0e\u672c\u6b21\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u606f\u606f\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u63a5\u7740\uff0c\u4ed6\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u5728\u300a\u591a\u8005\u5f02\u4e5f\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\uff1a\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5171\u540c\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u662f\u7269\u8d28\u57fa\u672c\u6210\u5206\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7269\u8d28\u590d\u6742\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u4f53\u73b0\u3002<\/strong><\/em>\u4ed6\u4e00\u8d2f\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0e\u7406\u89e3\u57fa\u672c\u7269\u7406\u5b9a\u5f8b\u548c\u7ec4\u6210\u5355\u5143\u4e00\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4ed6\u53cd\u5bf9\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u6784\u5efa\u5355\u5143\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4ed6\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u5c06\u4e00\u5207\u7b80\u5316\u4e3a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5b9a\u5f8b\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u80fd\u591f\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u51fa\u53d1\u91cd\u5efa\u5b87\u5b99\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/em>\uff08\u53c2\u770b\u300a\u591a\u8005\u5f02\u4e5f\uff1a\u7834\u7f3a\u7684\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u5c42\u7ea7\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u672c\u8d28 | \u7ecf\u5178\u56de\u987e<\/a>\u300b\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u300a\u591a\u8005\u5f02\u4e5f\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u6211\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u70ed\u60c5\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5951\u5408\uff0c\u5373\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u60ca\u5947<\/span>\uff08emerging surprises\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4e2a\u4f53<\/em><\/span>\uff08\u6216\u7c92\u5b50\uff09<\/em><\/span>\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u901a\u8fc7\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2a\u4f53<\/em><\/span>\uff08\u6216\u7c92\u5b50\uff09<\/em><\/span>\u7279\u6027\u7684\u5916\u63a8\u6765\u7406\u89e3<\/em>\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u65b0\u9896\u4e14\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u800c\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u4e3a\u9700\u8981\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1 Anderson \u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u672a\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u65e9\u572850\u5e74\u524d\u5c31\u88ab\u82f1\u56fd\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6 C.D. Broad \u7528\u51e0\u4e4e\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u63aa\u8f9e\u8868\u8ff0\u8fc7\uff1a\u201c\u6d8c\u73b0\u662f\u6307\u6574\u4f53\u65e0\u6cd5\u4ece\u5176\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6700\u5168\u9762\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e2d\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8fd9\u4e2a\u601d\u60f3\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5ef6\u4f38\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u3002Anderson \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5177\u4f53\u673a\u5236\u80fd\u591f\u4ea7\u751f\u6d8c\u73b0\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5373\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u96be\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7279\u6027\uff1a\u5e7f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u7834\u7f3a\u201d<\/strong><\/span>\uff08symmetry breaking\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bfc\u81f4\u660e\u663e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u76f8\u6001\uff0c\u5373\u53c2\u6570\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u5176\u5b8f\u89c2\u884c\u4e3a\u5728\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u53c2\u6570\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u5176\u4ed6\u533a\u57df\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4ee5\u6db2\u6001\u6c34\u548c\u51b0\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u7834\u7f3a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u4f53\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f6c\u6298\uff1a\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u65e0\u6cd5\u4ece\u57fa\u672c\u6784\u5efa\u5355\u5143\u4e2d\u9884\u6d4b\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c5e\u6027\u4f1a\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u7ec4\u6210\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4f3c\u4e4e\u53ea\u6709\u5c11\u6570\u51e0\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u7279\u6027\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u7279\u6027\u5728\u805a\u5408\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6d88\u5931\u4e86\uff0c\u805a\u5408\u53ea\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u51e0\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c5e\u6027\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5efa\u6a21\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u6d88\u606f\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u7cbe\u786e\u6355\u6349\u5355\u4e2a\u5206\u5b50\u3001\u5355\u4e2a\u795e\u7ecf\u5143\u6216\u5355\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u518d\u73b0\u5927\u91cf\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u7c97\u7565\u63cf\u8ff0\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u8db3\u591f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ecd\u80fd\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u4ea7\u751f\u51fa\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u5947\u7684\u7279\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5f53\u7136\uff0cPhil Anderson \u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u601d\u60f3\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u79d1\u5b66\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5145\u6ee1\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ed6\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u57281987\u5e74\u5171\u540c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u201d\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5f53\u65f6\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u540d\u79f0\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u6807\u9898\u9887\u5177\u542f\u53d1\u6027\uff1a\u201c<\/strong>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u201d<\/strong> [3]\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u662f\u4e09\u6b21\u7cfb\u5217\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u5b83\u5bf9\u4e3b\u6d41\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7684\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u60c5\u51b5\u6b63\u5728\u6162\u6162\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u4ecd\u7136\u542c\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8bf4\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u505a\u8fc7\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u8fc7\u65f6\u7684\u6f6e\u6d41\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5411\u524d\u8fc8\u8fdb\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6211\u548c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982 Alan Kirman\uff0c\u5bf9\u6b64\u5e76\u4e0d\u8ba4\u540c\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u8d21\u732e\u5c1a\u672a\u5230\u6765<\/span>\uff08\u53c2\u8003 [14, 17, 27, 28]\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u81f3\u5c11\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u5728\u6cd5\u5170\u897f\u5b66\u9662\u8bb2\u5ea7\u4e2d\u6240\u62b1\u6709\u7684\u5e0c\u671b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u5728\u6b64\u4e0e\u4ece\u4e8b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bfe\u9898\u7684\u6700\u6770\u51fa\u5934\u8111\u4eec\u4e00\u8d77\u805a\u96c6\u8fd9\u77ed\u77ed\u4e24\u5929\u7684\u5e0c\u671b\u6240\u5728\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6216\u8bb8\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u7f3a\u5c11\u7684\u662f\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u53c2\u4e0e\u3002\u4ec5\u4ec5\u8bf4\u770b\u770b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5f88\u68d2\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u80fd\u5e2e\u4f60\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7684\u662f\u957f\u671f\u7684\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u5408\u4f5c\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u4e5f\u8bb81986\u5e74\u9ad8\u6e29\u8d85\u5bfc\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5bf9\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u5931\u8d25\u8d1f\u6709\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6 Phil Anderson \u5bf9\u6b64\u611f\u5230\u975e\u5e38\u5174\u594b\uff0c\u5e76\u6df1\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u4ed6\u653e\u5f03\u4e86\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u80fd\u53c2\u4e0e\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6211\u51e0\u4e4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u4ed6\u4f1a\u518d\u6b21\u53d1\u660e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u4f46\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u73a9\u5177\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u5438\u5f15\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bfe\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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[1] Bouchaud J-P and Georges A 1990 Anomalous diffusion in disordered media: statistical mechanisms, models and physical applications Phys. Rep. 195 127\u2013293<\/span><\/p>\n

[2] Ott A, Bouchaud J-P, Langevin D and Urbach W 1990 Anomalous diffusion in \u2018living polymers\u2019: a genuine Levy flight? Phys. Rev. Lett. 65 2201<\/span><\/p>\n

[3] Anderson P W, Arrow K and Pines D 2018 The Economy as an Evolving Complex System (CRC Press)<\/span><\/p>\n

[4] Black F and Scholes M 1973 The pricing of options and corporate liabilities J. Polit. Econ. 81 637\u201354<\/span><\/p>\n

[5] Dupire B 1994 Pricing with a smile Risk 7 18\u201320<\/span><\/p>\n

[6] Bouchaud J-P 2011 The endogenous dynamics of markets: price impact, feedback loops and instabilities Lessons from the 2008 Crisis ed A Berd (Risk Books) pp 57\u2013156<\/span><\/p>\n

[7] Hopfield J J 1982 Neural networks and physical systems with emergent collective computational abilities Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 79 2554\u20138<\/span><\/p>\n

[8] Wigner E P 1967 Random matrices in physics SIAM Rev. 9 1\u201323<\/span><\/p>\n

[9] Potters M and Bouchaud J-P 2020 A First Course in Random Matrix Theory: For Physicists, Engineers and Data Scientists (Cambridge University Press)<\/span><\/p>\n

[10] May R M 1972 Will a large complex system be stable? Nature 238 413\u20134<\/span><\/p>\n

[11] Derrida B 1981 Random-energy model: an exactly solvable model of disordered systems Phys. Rev. B 24 2613<\/span><\/p>\n

[12] Biroli G and Bouchaud J-P 2012 The random first-order transition theory of glasses: a critical assessment Structural Glasses and Supercooled Liquids: Theory, Experiment and Applications ed V Lubchenko and P G Wolynes (Wiley) pp 31\u2013113<\/span><\/p>\n

[13] Schelling T C 2006 Micromotives and Macrobehavior (WW Norton & Company)<\/span><\/p>\n

[14] Gualdi S, Tarzia M, Zamponi F and Bouchaud J-P 2015 Tipping points in macroeconomic agent-based models J. Econ. Dyn. Control 50 29\u201361<\/span><\/p>\n

[15] Grauwin S, Bertin E, Lemoy R and Jensen P 2009 Competition between collective and individual dynamics Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 106 20622\u20136<\/span><\/p>\n

[16] Anderson P W 1972 More is different: broken symmetry and the nature of the hierarchical structure of science Science 177 393\u20136<\/span><\/p>\n

[17] Bouchaud J-P 2013 Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges J. Stat. Phys. 151 567\u2013606<\/span><\/p>\n

[18] Ballerini M et al 2008 Interaction ruling animal collective behavior depends on topological rather than metric distance: Evidence from a field study Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 105 1232\u20137<\/span><\/p>\n

[19] Strogatz S H 2012 Sync: How Order Emerges From Chaos in the Universe, Nature and Daily Life (Hachette)<\/span><\/p>\n

[20] Johansson A, Helbing D, Al-Abideen H Z and Al-Bosta S 2008 From crowd dynamics to crowd safety: a video-based analysis Adv. Complex Syst. 11 497\u2013527<\/span><\/p>\n

[21] Charbonneau P, Kurchan J, Parisi G, Urbani P and Zamponi F 2017 Glass and jamming transitions: from exact results to finite-dimensional descriptions Annu. Rev. Condens. Matter Phys. 8 265\u201388<\/span><\/p>\n

[22] Shiller R J 2017 Narrative economics Am. Econ. Rev. 107 967\u20131004<\/span><\/p>\n

[23] Bernanke B S, Geithner T F and Paulson H M 2019 Firefighting: the Financial Crisis and its Lessons (Penguin)<\/span><\/p>\n

[24] Cochrane J H 1994 Shocks Carnegie-Rochester Conf. Series on Public Policy vol 41 (Elsevier) pp 295\u2013364<\/span><\/p>\n

[25] Moran J, Pijpers F P, Weitzel U, Bouchaud J-P and Panja D 2023 Temporal criticality in socio-technical systems (arXiv:2307.03546)<\/span><\/p>\n

[26] Haldane A G and Turrell A E 2019 Drawing on different disciplines: macroeconomic agent-based models J. Evol. Econ. 29 39\u201366<\/span><\/p>\n

[27] Kirman A 2010 Complex Economics: Individual and Collective Rationality (Routledge)<\/span><\/p>\n

[28] Dosi G and Roventini A 2019 More is different… and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics J. Evol. Econ. 29 1\u201337<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff08\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u53ef\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52a8<\/strong>\u67e5\u770b\uff09<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4f34\u968f\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6280\u672f\u65e5\u6e10\u6210\u719f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u3001ABM\u7b49\uff0c\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5bf9\u201c\u5747\u8861\u201d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u591f\u89e3\u91ca\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3001\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u65b0\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6a21\u5f0f\u7b49\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5f00\u59cb\u91cd\u89c6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u201c\u975e\u5747\u8861\u201d\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u628a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u770b\u505a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5e76\u529b\u56fe\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5185\u6162\u6162\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u66f4\u52a0\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u8def\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u3002<\/span>\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/a>\u7531\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u674e\u7ea2\u521a\u3001\u738b\u6709\u8d35\u3001\u5f20\u6c5f\u3001\u9648\u6e05\u534e\u8001\u5e08\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u5c71\u5927\u5b66\u8881\u5148\u667a\u8001\u5e08\u8054\u5408\u53d1\u8d77\uff0c\u56f4\u7ed5\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5185\u6db5\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u666e\u9002\u89c4\u5f8b\u3001\u5e94\u7528\u573a\u666f\u56db\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u63a2\u8ba8\u3002<\/span>\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5df2\u5b8c\u7ed3\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u62a5\u540d\u53ef\u52a0\u5165\u793e\u7fa4\u5e76\u89e3\u9501\u56de\u653e\u89c6\u9891\u6743\u9650\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u672c\u5b63\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u8be6\u60c5\u4e0e\u62a5\u540d\u65b9\u5f0f\u8bf7\u53c2\u8003\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
\u76f4\u9762\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u91cd\u8bc6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u5f8b\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u542f\u52a8<\/strong><\/a><\/section>\n

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\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n
1. <\/strong>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b6630\u5e74\uff1a\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u80fd\u591f\u62ef\u6551\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u5371\u673a\u5417\uff1f<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
2. <\/strong>\u591a\u8005\u5f02\u4e5f\uff1a\u7834\u7f3a\u7684\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u5c42\u7ea7\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u672c\u8d28 | \u7ecf\u5178\u56de\u987e<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
3. <\/strong>\u6d8c\u73b0\uff1a21\u4e16\u7eaa\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7edf\u4e00\u4e3b\u9898<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
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4. <\/strong><\/span>\u5f20\u6c5f\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u57fa\u7840\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u53ef\u5fae\u5206\u7f16\u7a0b\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406 | \u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\u5168\u65b0\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/strong>5.<\/strong> \u9f99\u5e74\u5927\u8fd0\u8d77\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u6b63\u5f53\u65f6\uff01\u89e3\u9501\u96c6\u667a\u5168\u7ad9\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5f00\u542f\u65b0\u5e74\u5b66\u4e60\u8ba1\u5212<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n

6. <\/strong>\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n


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<\/p>\n

\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/mp-style-type><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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