{"id":54659,"date":"2024-12-25T22:53:22","date_gmt":"2024-12-25T14:53:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=54659"},"modified":"2024-12-25T22:53:22","modified_gmt":"2024-12-25T14:53:22","slug":"%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e4%b8%8e%e7%94%9f%e5%ad%98%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%ef%bc%9a%e7%a8%b3%e5%ae%9a%e5%ad%a6%e4%b9%a0%e7%90%86%e8%ae%ba%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%8a%a9%e5%8a%9b%e7%94%9f%e5%91%bd%e5%8c%bb%e5%ad%a6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=54659","title":{"rendered":"\u56e0\u679c\u4e0e\u751f\u5b58\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u7406\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u52a9\u529b\u751f\u547d\u533b\u5b66\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/span>Stable Cox Regression for Survival Analysis under Distribution Shifts <\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u751f\u5b58\u5206\u6790\u5904\u7406\u7684\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u5230\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span>\uff08time-to-event\uff09<\/span>\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5b83\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u6d4b\u91cf\u4ece\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u8d77\u70b9<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u6cbb\u7597\u5f00\u59cb\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u8bca\u65ad\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u91cd\u8981\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff09<\/span>\u5230\u67d0\u4e00\u5173\u952e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\uff0c\u662f\u751f\u5b58\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u201c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201d\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u590d\u53d1\u3001\u6cbb\u7597\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6216\u5931\u8d25\u7b49\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u6790\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5173\u6ce8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd8\u5173\u6ce8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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Cox\u98ce\u9669\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Cox Proportional Hazards Model\uff09<\/span>[1]\uff0c\u53c8\u79f0Cox\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\uff0c\u7531\u82f1\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6David Cox\u4e8e1972\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u751f\u5b58\u7ed3\u5c40\u548c\u751f\u5b58\u65f6\u95f4\u4e3a\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u53ef\u540c\u65f6\u5206\u6790\u4f17\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u751f\u5b58\u671f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u80fd\u5206\u6790\u5e26\u6709\u622a\u5c3e\u751f\u5b58\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4e14\u4e0d\u8981\u6c42\u4f30\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u5206\u5e03\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u56e0\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4f18\u70b9\uff0cCox\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u8fc5\u901f\u6210\u4e3a\u751f\u5b58\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u548c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u3001\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u3001\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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Stable Cox\uff1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u751f\u5b58\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Stable Learning\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5 [2, 4]\uff0c\u5b83\u65e8\u5728\u5728\u4fdd\u8bc1\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u672a\u77e5\u6d4b\u8bd5\u96c6\u4e0a\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u7279\u522b\u5173\u6ce8\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u591a\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u73af\u5883\u6216\u5206\u5e03\u65f6\u7684\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b<\/strong>\u3002\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u548c\u5229\u7528\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u4fdd\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u9ad8\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9c81\u68d2\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d7\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u542f\u53d1\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u8bc6\u522b\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u5982\u4f55\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0d\u56e0\u73af\u5883\u6216\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u5728\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u539f\u5219\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u73af\u5883\u6216\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u90fd\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u4e0e\u7ed3\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u8054\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u800c\u975e\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e5f\u53d7\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u6d88\u9664\u6df7\u6742\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u5728\u5173\u952e\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0a\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u6bd4\u6027\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u901a\u8fc7\u6837\u672c\u91cd\u52a0\u6743\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u73af\u5883\u6216\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5e73\u8861\u6837\u672c\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
Stable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u5728\u751f\u5b58\u5206\u6790\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e94\u7528\u5b9e\u4f8b\uff0c\u5b83\u7ee7\u627f\u4e86\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7406\u5ff5\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u751f\u5b58\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u8bc6\u522b\u548c\u5229\u7528\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u60a3\u8005\u7fa4\u4f53\u6216\u4e0d\u540c\u533b\u7597\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u7684\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span>\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f7f\u5f97\u751f\u5b58\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u53d7\u865a\u5047\u76f8\u5173\u5f71\u54cd\u8bc6\u522b\u7a33\u5b9a\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\uff0cStable Cox\u63d0\u51fa\u53d1\u73b0\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u9884\u540e\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u5728\u4e8e\u6d88\u9664\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0e\u751f\u5b58\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u865a\u5047\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5b66\u4e60\u5230\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ee3\u8868\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u751f\u5b58\u6982\u7387\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u5fc3\u662f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0cStable Cox \u6a21\u578b\u7531\u4e24\u9636\u6bb5\u7ec4\u6210\uff1a\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u6837\u672c\u52a0\u6743\u548c\u52a0\u6743Cox\u56de\u5f52\u3002\u5728\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u6837\u672c\u52a0\u6743\u9636\u6bb5<\/strong>\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u5b66\u4e60\u4e00\u5957\u6837\u672c\u6743\u91cd\u5bf9\u6837\u672c\u8fdb\u884c\u91cd\u52a0\u6743\u4f7f\u5f97\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb<\/span>\uff08\u56fe2 a\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u52a0\u6743\u7684Cox\u56de\u5f52\u9636\u6bb5<\/strong>\uff0cCox\u6a21\u578b\u635f\u5931\u4e2d\u7684\u6837\u672c\u88ab\u4e4b\u524d\u5b66\u5230\u7684\u6837\u672c\u6743\u91cd\u8fdb\u884c\u91cd\u52a0\u6743\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u52a0\u6743\u540e\u7684\u6837\u672c\u635f\u5931\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5206\u79bb\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u4e8e\u751f\u5b58\u8f93\u51fa\u7684\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08\u56fe2 b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u9519\u4f30\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0cStable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u7a33\u5b9a\u53d8\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0a\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u60f3\u8c61\u6709\u4e00\u6279\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u75c5\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u4e60\u60ef\u3001\u57fa\u56e0\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u540c\u7b49\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4f46Stable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u566a\u97f3\u6216\u8005\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6837\u672c\u91cd\u52a0\u6743\u7684\u6b65\u9aa4\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u7ed9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u4fe1\u4efb\u5ea6\u201d\u8bc4\u5206\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u90fd\u80fd\u7a33\u5b9a\u9884\u6d4b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u90a3\u4e9b\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4fe1\u4efb\u5ea6\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bc4\u5206\u8fc7\u7a0b\u901a\u8fc7\u6837\u672c\u52a0\u6743\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8ba9\u6240\u6709\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u6574\u4f53\u4e0a\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u3002\u5728\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u91cd\u52a0\u6743\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u5165\u52a0\u6743Cox\u56de\u5f52\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b65\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u9884\u6d4b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u4e4b\u524d\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u5ea6\u6765\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4fe1\u4efb\u5ea6\u9ad8\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4fe1\u4efb\u5ea6\u4f4e\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\u8f83\u5c0f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe2 Stable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u6846\u67b6<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4e09\u7c7b\u764c\u75c7\u7ec4\u5b66\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/span>\uff08\u809d\u764c\u3001\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u3001\u9ed1\u8272\u7d20\u7624\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u4e24\u7c7b\u764c\u75c7\u4e34\u5e8a\u751f\u5b58\u6570\u636e<\/span>\uff08\u80ba\u764c\u3001\u4e73\u817a\u764c\uff09<\/span>\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u591a\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7fa4\u4f53\u548c\u5b50\u7fa4\u4f53\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u6b64\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5f3a\u5927\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b<\/span>\uff08\u5e73\u5747\u63d0\u53476.5%-13.9%\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cStable Cox\u5b66\u4e60\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u7cfb\u6570\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u53d1\u73b0\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\uff0c\u5e76\u533a\u5206\u751f\u5b58\u98ce\u9669\u663e\u8457\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e9a\u578b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6307\u5bfc\u6cbb\u7597\u51b3\u7b56\u548c\u9776\u5411\u836f\u7269\u7814\u53d1\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe3 \u5728\u6a21\u62df\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u79fb\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u591a\u79cd\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u636e\u4e0b\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u7684Cox PH\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0cStable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u79fb\u65f6\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u4fdd\u6301\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u548c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u4e0e\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u65f6\uff0cStable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u4f18\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cStable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u7279\u5f81\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u5bf9\u751f\u5b58\u9884\u6d4b\u6700\u5173\u952e\u7684\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5b9e\u7528\u6027\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe4 \u5728\u809d\u764c\u3001\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u3001\u2fca\u2f8a\u7d20\u7624\u4e0aStable Cox\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u6d4b\u8bd5\u96c6\u4e0a\u7684C-index\u6bd4\u8f83<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u809d\u764c\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\uff0cStable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e09\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u961f\u5217\u4e0a\u5747\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u6bd4Cox PH\u6a21\u578b\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5e73\u5747C-index\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5176\u5728\u672a\u89c1\u8fc7\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u9c81\u68d2\u6027\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5728\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u548c\u9ed1\u8272\u7d20\u7624\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\uff0cStable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u4f18\u8d8a\u7684\u6027\u80fd\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u8f83\u5c11\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86Stable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u8bc6\u522b\u8de8\u4e0d\u540c\u60a3\u8005\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e00\u81f4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u9884\u540e\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6307\u5bfc\u4e34\u5e8a\u6cbb\u7597\u51b3\u7b56\u548c\u5f00\u53d1\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u7597\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe5 Stable Cox\u7684\u9884\u540e\u4e9a\u578b\u4eba\u7fa4\u5206\u7ec4\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u4e2d\u5fc3\u9884\u540e\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u7edf\u8ba1<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u56fe5\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b50\u56fea\u5229\u7528Kaplan-Meier\u751f\u5b58\u66f2\u7ebf\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u7531\u4e24\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\u5206\u7ec4\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u4e9a\u7fa4\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86Stable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u961f\u5217\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684P\u503c\u548c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6bd4<\/span>\uff08HR\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5176\u5728\u60a3\u8005\u9884\u540e\u5206\u5c42\u4e0a\u66f4\u4e3a\u7cbe\u786e\u3002\u5b50\u56feb\u901a\u8fc7\u5355\u53d8\u91cfCox\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5173\u952e\u4e34\u5e8a\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u5e74\u9f84\u3001ER\u72b6\u6001\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\u4e9a\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684HR\u503c\uff0c\u663e\u793aStable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4e9a\u7ec4\u4e2d\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8HR\u503c\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5176\u5728\u9884\u540e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u66f4\u4f18\u3002\u5b50\u56fec\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u548c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u961f\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u540e\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0Stable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u961f\u5217\u4e2d\u4fdd\u6301\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u9884\u540e\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u800cCox PH\u6a21\u578b\u5219\u6709\u90e8\u5206\u57fa\u56e0\u9884\u540e\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86Stable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u8bc6\u522b\u8de8\u961f\u5217\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u9884\u540e\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe6 \u5728\u80ba\u764c\u3001\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u4e34\u5e8a\u6307\u6807\u4e0aStable Cox\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u4eba\u7fa4\u3001\u72ec\u7acb\u6d4b\u8bd5\u96c6\u4e0a\u7684C-index\u6bd4\u8f83<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u56fe6\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b50\u56fea\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u80ba\u764c\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e9a\u7fa4\u4e2d\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u751f\u5b58<\/span>\uff08OS\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u65e0\u75c5\u751f\u5b58<\/span>\uff08DFS\uff09<\/span>\u6027\u80fd\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660eStable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5404\u4e2a\u4e9a\u7fa4\u4e2d\u5747\u663e\u8457\u4f18\u4e8e\u57fa\u7ebf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728OS\u548cDFS\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u5206\u522b\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e864.5%\u548c17.7%\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5b50\u56feb\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0cStable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u961f\u5217\u4e2d\u5747\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u5bf9Cox PH\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662fOS\u8fd8\u662f\u65e0\u590d\u53d1\u751f\u5b58<\/span>\uff08RFS\uff09<\/span>\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u5747\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002\u5b50\u56fec\u901a\u8fc7Kaplan-Meier\u751f\u5b58\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u76f4\u89c2\u5c55\u793a\u4e86Stable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\u5bf9\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\u4e9a\u7fa4\u7684\u533a\u5206\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e0eCox PH\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0cStable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u7ec4\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e9a\u7fa4\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u5dee\u5f02\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86Stable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u4e34\u5e8a\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u7684\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u9c81\u68d2\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u5904\u7406\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u7fa4\u4f53\u65f6\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\u548c\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4ece\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u672a\u77e5\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u7528\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9645\u533b\u7597\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u548c\u96be\u9898\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u8bc6\u522b\u6280\u672f\u7684\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b\u8f83\u5dee\uff0c\u4ec5\u5728\u4e0e\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u73af\u5883\u6837\u672c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u4f7f\u5f97\u4f20\u7edf\u6280\u672f\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u96be\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5bfc\u81f4\u7814\u53d1\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6d6a\u8d39\uff0c\u8fd8\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u533b\u836f\u9886\u57df\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u5f00\u53d1\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7cbe\u786e\u8bc6\u522b\u5e76\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u7684\u65b0\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u51c6\u786e\u8bca\u65ad\uff0c\u6ee1\u8db3\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5065\u5eb7\u4fdd\u969c\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u53ca\u5176\u884d\u751f\u7684Stable Cox\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u751f\u5b58\u5206\u6790\u9886\u57df\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u548c\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u4ee5Stable Cox\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u751f\u5b58\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u65e8\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u53d8\u91cf\u72ec\u7acb\u4f7f\u5f97\u53d1\u73b0\u7a33\u5b9a\u9884\u540e\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\uff0c\u8fd8\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u3002\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u547c\u5524\u7814\u7a76\u754c\u91cd\u89c6\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u533b\u7597\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u9886\u57df\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u9760\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u968f\u7740\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6df1\u5165\uff0c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u6709\u671b\u5728\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u73b0\u548c\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u4e3a\u6784\u5efa\u66f4\u52a0\u7a33\u5065\u548c\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u575a\u5b9e\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
[1]  Cox, David R (1972). “Regression Models and Life-Tables”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. 34 (2): 187\u2013220.<\/span><\/section>\n
[2] Peng Cui, Susan Athey. Stable Learning Establishes Some Common Ground Between Causal Inference and Machine Learning. Nature Machine Intelligence, 2022.<\/span><\/section>\n
[3] Renzhe Xu, Zheyan Shen, Xingxuan Zhang, Tong Zhang, Peng Cui. A Theoretical Analysis on Independence-driven Importance Weighting for Covariate-shift Generalization. ICML, 2022.<\/span><\/section>\n
[4] https:\/\/wiki.swarma.org\/index.php\/%E7%A8%B3%E5%AE%9A%E5%AD%A6%E4%B9%A0<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8054\u5408\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u5927\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u535a\u58eb\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u674e\u660a\u8f69\u3001\u4f26\u6566\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u535a\u58eb\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u6768\u68a6\u6708\uff0c\u5361\u8010\u57fa\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u7a46\u7f55\u9ed8\u5fb7\u00b7\u672c\u00b7\u624e\u8036\u5fb7\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u540e\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u9648\u5e7f\u4e49\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u8d77\u300c\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66+\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u300d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7cfb\u5217\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7684\u7b2c\u4e94\u5b63\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u63a2\u8ba8\u5728\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u540e\u4e3a\u4f55\u4ecd\u9700\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u201d\uff1f\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u5982\u4f55\u63a8\u52a8\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u5c55\uff1f\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u80fd\u5426\u5728\u63a8\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u4fe1\u6027\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u542f\u53d1\u66f4\u4f18\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff1f\u4ee5\u53ca\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8fdb\u5c55\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u5e94\u7528\u548c\u843d\u5730\uff1f\u5e0c\u671b\u6c47\u805a\u76f8\u5173\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u63a2\u8ba8\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u5b66\u79d1\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/span>\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5df2\u5b8c\u7ed3\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u62a5\u540d\u53ef\u52a0\u5165\u793e\u7fa4\u5e76\u89e3\u9501\u56de\u653e\u89c6\u9891\u6743\u9650\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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1. <\/strong>\u5d14\u9e4f\u56e2\u961f\uff1a\u4e07\u5b57\u957f\u6587\u68b3\u7406\u300c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u300d\u5168\u666f\u56fe<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
2. <\/strong>\u5d14\u9e4f\uff1a\u63a8\u8350\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5916\u6cdb\u5316 | \u56e0\u679c\u6d3e\u8bba\u575b\u56de\u987e<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
3. <\/strong>\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u4e0e\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u79cd\u5b50\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u6846\u67b6<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
4. <\/strong><\/span>\u5f20\u6c5f\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u57fa\u7840\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u53ef\u5fae\u5206\u7f16\u7a0b\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406 | \u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\u5168\u65b0\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/strong>5.<\/strong> \u9f99\u5e74\u5927\u8fd0\u8d77\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u6b63\u5f53\u65f6\uff01\u89e3\u9501\u96c6\u667a\u5168\u7ad9\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5f00\u542f\u65b0\u5e74\u5b66\u4e60\u8ba1\u5212<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n

6. <\/strong>\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n


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\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/mp-style-type><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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