{"id":54765,"date":"2025-01-01T22:23:08","date_gmt":"2025-01-01T14:23:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=54765"},"modified":"2025-01-01T22:23:08","modified_gmt":"2025-01-01T14:23:08","slug":"%e5%8f%a4%e5%b8%8c%e8%85%8a%e6%8e%8c%e7%ae%a1%e6%88%90%e5%8a%9f%e7%9a%84%e7%a5%9e%e5%9c%a8%e5%93%aa%e5%84%bf%ef%bc%9f%e7%8e%8b%e5%a4%a7%e9%a1%ba%e7%ad%89%e4%ba%ba%e7%bb%bc%e8%bf%b0%e6%88%90%e5%8a%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=54765","title":{"rendered":"\u53e4\u5e0c\u814a\u638c\u7ba1\u6210\u529f\u7684\u795e\u5728\u54ea\u513f\uff1f\u738b\u5927\u987a\u7b49\u4eba\u7efc\u8ff0\u6210\u529f\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Collective dynamics behind success<\/span><\/section>\n
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2. \u4e2a\u4eba\u4ece\u96c6\u4f53\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u56db\u79cd\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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van de Rijt, A. Self-correcting dynamics in social influence processes. Am. J. Sociol. 124, 1468\u20131495 (2019)<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08 Theodore Paul Wright \u57281936\u5e74\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u98de\u673a\u603b\u6570\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u751f\u4ea7\u98de\u673a\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6210\u672c\u6309\u7167\u5e42\u5f8b\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u4e4b\u540e\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u8d56\u7279\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5b66\u4e60\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5236\u5b9a\u7b2c n \u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u6240\u9700\u7684\u65f6\u95f4 t<\/span>n  <\/span>\u968f\u7740\u5148\u524d\u5c1d\u8bd5\u6b21\u6570\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u6309\u5e42\u5f8b\u4e0b\u964d\uff1at<\/span>n<\/span>\/t<\/span>1<\/span> ~ n-\u03b3<\/sup>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u03b3\u662f\u5b66\u4e60\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u5f71\u54cd\u6210\u529f\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u4ece\u9519\u8bef\u4e2d\u7ecf\u7531\u5b66\u4e60\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5931\u8d25\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u6bcd<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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Yin, Y., Wang, Y., Evans, J. A. & Wang, D. Quantifying the dynamics of failure across science, startups and security. Nature 575, 190\u2013194 (2019).<\/span><\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u7ae0\uff1a\u300a\u96c6\u667a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6Nature\u520a\u6587\u9610\u91ca\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u673a\u5236\uff1a\u539f\u6765\u80dc\u8d25\u65e9\u6709\u4fe1\u53f7<\/a>\u300b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u201c\u6210\u529f\u5b55\u80b2\u6210\u529f\u201d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06\u8d44\u6e90\u5f15\u5bfc\u5230\u9ad8\u7ee9\u6548\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u4e5f\u4f1a\u57f9\u517b\u201c\u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403\u201d\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u52a0\u5267\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u5931\u8d25\u4e0e\u6210\u5c31\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5bf9\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u6709\u6df1\u8fdc\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5bf9\u57f9\u517b\u548c\u6269\u5927\u6f5c\u5728\u4eba\u624d\u5e93\u4e5f\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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Liu, L. et al. Hot streaks in artistic, cultural, and scientific careers. Nature 559, 396 (2018). <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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6. \u8eab\u4efd\u6548\u5e94\uff1a\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u6027\u522b\u79cd\u65cf\u6210\u89c1<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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Woolley, A. W., Chabris, C. F., Pentland, A., Hashmi, N. & Malone, T. W. Evidence for a Collective Intelligence Factor in the Performance of Human Groups. Science 330, 686\u2013688 (2010).<\/section>\n

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\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u7ae0\uff1a<\/span>\u5987\u5973\u8282\u4e13\u9898\uff1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u6027\u522b\u6a21\u5f0f\u7814\u7a76\u5408\u8f91<\/a><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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7. \u672a\u6765\u6210\u529f\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u8ffd\u6c42\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\u90fd\u662f\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4e86\u89e3\u6210\u529f\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u7fa4\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u4fc3\u6210\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u5143\u5305\u5bb9\u5207\u5145\u6ee1\u6d3b\u529b\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u8ba9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u6709\u4e30\u6c9b\u4e14\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u5fc3\u4e2d\u7684\u6210\u529f\u594b\u6597\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u8be5\u7efc\u8ff0\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u770b\u5f85\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u6210\u529f\u53ef\u89c6\u4e3a\u4ece\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e92\u52a8\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u8be5\u6587\u6700\u540e\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8be5\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u672a<\/span>\u6765<\/span>\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

1. \u6587\u5316\u5dee\u5f02<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u6587\u5316\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u5bf9\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u5c06\u6587\u5316\u56e0\u7d20\u6574\u5408\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u6587\u5316\u591a\u6837\u6027\u5bf9\u56e2\u961f\u521b\u9020\u529b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

2. \u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49<\/strong>\uff1a\u6210\u529f\u4e0e\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ee5\u63a2\u7d22\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u4e2a\u4f53\u56e0\u4e3a\u8eab\u4efd\u53d7\u5230\u4e0d\u516c\u6b63\u7684\u5bf9\u5f85\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

3. \u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd<\/strong>\uff1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e2a\u4eba\u3001\u56e2\u961f\u548c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5e76\u4fc3\u8fdb\u793e\u4f1a\u516c\u5e73\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

4. \u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u88ab\u7b97\u6cd5\u652f\u914d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u793e\u4ea4\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u63a8\u8350\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u7b97\u6cd5\u5bf9\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u516c\u5e73\u6027\u548c\u5305\u5bb9\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

5. \u6210\u529f\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u5f53\u524d\u5bf9\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\u5426\u72ed\u9698\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u53ea\u4f9d\u8d56\u5f15\u7528\u6570\u5224\u65ad\u6210\u529f\u662f\u5426\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u6210\u957f\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5728\u5c06\u6765\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a2\u8ba8\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u4e0e\u4e2a\u4eba\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u76f8\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n

\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u5174\u4ea4\u53c9\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u5728\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u3001\u8206\u8bba\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u6cbb\u7406\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ba1\u7406\u7b49\u793e\u4f1a\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u793e\u79d1\u8bae\u9898\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5927\u5927\u4e30\u5bcc\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5e7f\u6cdb\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u8303\u5f0f\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e0e\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4eff\u771f\u3001\u5927\u6570\u636e\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bc6\u5207\u7ed3\u5408\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u68b3\u7406\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5404\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u7814\u7a76\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u53d1\u8d77\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7cfb\u5217\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u3010<\/span>\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\u3011\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u7531\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u7f57\u5bb6\u5fb7\u6559\u6388\u9886\u8854\uff0c\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u5339\u5179\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u591a\u4f4d\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u8054\u5408\u53d1\u8d77\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e8612\u5468\u7684\u5206\u4eab\u548c\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u4e00\u6b21\u95ed\u95e8\u8336\u8bdd\u4f1a\uff0c\u4e24\u6b21\u5706\u684c\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u672c\u5b63\u8bfb\u4e66\u805a\u7126\u8ba8\u8bbaGraph\u3001Embedding\u3001NLP\u3001Modeling\u3001Data collection\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u5176\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5e76\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u8ba8\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u79fb\u52a8\u3001\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7b49\u8bfe\u9898\u3002<\/span>\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5df2\u5b8c\u7ed3\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u62a5\u540d\u53ef\u52a0\u5165\u793e\u7fa4\u5e76\u89e3\u9501\u56de\u653e\u89c6\u9891\u6743\u9650\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/a><\/section>\n
\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u89c1\uff1a<\/span>\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u8ba1\u7b97\u524d\u6cbf\u65b9\u6cd5\u6574\u5408\uff1a\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u542f\u52a8<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n
1. <\/strong>\u6210\u529f\u4ece\u4f55\u800c\u6765\uff1f\u5df4\u62c9\u5df4\u897f\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u4e2a\u4eba\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5173\u7cfb\u7f3a\u4e00\u4e0d\u53ef<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
2. <\/strong>\u96c6\u667a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6Nature\u520a\u6587\u9610\u91ca\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u673a\u5236\uff1a\u539f\u6765\u80dc\u8d25\u65e9\u6709\u4fe1\u53f7<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
3. <\/strong>2000\u4e07\u4eba\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u63ed\u5f00\u201c\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\u5bf9\u6210\u529f\u7684\u610f\u4e49<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
4. <\/strong><\/span>\u5f20\u6c5f\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u57fa\u7840\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u53ef\u5fae\u5206\u7f16\u7a0b\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406 | \u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\u5168\u65b0\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/strong>5.<\/strong> \u9f99\u5e74\u5927\u8fd0\u8d77\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u6b63\u5f53\u65f6\uff01\u89e3\u9501\u96c6\u667a\u5168\u7ad9\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5f00\u542f\u65b0\u5e74\u5b66\u4e60\u8ba1\u5212<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n

6. <\/strong>\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/mp-style-type><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5bfc\u8bed \u5b66\u672f\u754c\u3001\u4f53\u80b2\u754c\u53ca\u5546\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e2d\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6709\u4f55\u5171\u901a\u4e4b\u5904\uff1f\u6210\u529f\u80fd\u5426\u88ab\u9884\u6d4b\uff1f\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u5df2\u6709\u8bf8\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u8003\u5bdf\u6210\u529f\u4e0e\u5426\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u89c4\u5f8b\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u6280\u672f\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u548c\u827a\u672f\u7b49\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u9884\u6d4b\u6210\u529f\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u897f\u5317\u5927\u5b66\u51ef\u6d1b\u683c\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u548c McCormick \u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388\u738b\u5927\u987a\u7b49\u4eba\u5728 Nature Communication…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":54757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54765"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=54765"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54765\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/54757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=54765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=54765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=54765"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=54765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}