{"id":56409,"date":"2025-02-25T20:13:52","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T12:13:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=56409"},"modified":"2025-02-25T20:13:52","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T12:13:52","slug":"%e9%87%8d%e7%a3%85%e7%bb%bc%e8%bf%b0%ef%bc%9a%e5%9c%b0%e7%90%83%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e7%ae%80%e5%8f%b2%e4%b8%8e%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e5%85%ab%e5%a4%a7%e6%8c%91%e6%88%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=56409","title":{"rendered":"\u91cd\u78c5\u7efc\u8ff0\uff1a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7b80\u53f2\u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u516b\u5927\u6311\u6218"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b(ESMs)\u662f\u7528\u4e8e\u5168\u9762\u6a21\u62df\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5404\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7269\u7406\u3001\u5316\u5b66\u548c\u751f\u7269\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u672c\u6587\u56de\u987e\u4e86ESMs\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u65f6\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u4e2d\u590d\u6742\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\u3001\u5ca9\u77f3\u5708\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u548c\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u673a\u9047\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60(ML)\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd(AI)\u7b49\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u65b0\u673a\u9047\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u4e3a\u4e86\u80fd\u591f\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5404\u8981\u7d20\u4e4b\u95f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0e\u6f14\u5316\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5e94\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u5957\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8054\u5408\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u8bb2\u5e2d\u6559\u6388\u9648\u5fb7\u4eae\u3001\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u6a0a\u4eac\u82b3\u3001\u4e1c\u839e\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7279\u8058\u526f\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u9648\u7231\u82b3\u3001\u5357\u5f00\u5927\u5b66\u526f\u6559\u6388\u6234\u542f\u7acb\u8001\u5e08\u548c\u7231\u5c14\u5170\u90fd\u67cf\u6797\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u73ed\u5d2d\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u8d77\u300c\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u300d\u7cfb\u5217\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/a>\uff0c\u5c06\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5927\u5bb6\u4ece\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u51fa\u53d1\u68b3\u7406\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u5e76\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u8bfb\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aEvolution and prospects of Earth system models: Challenges and opportunities<\/span><\/section>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1ahttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.earscirev.2024.104986<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u4e8c\u3001\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6311\u6218<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5927\u6c14\u5708\u3001\u6c34\u5708\u3001\u751f\u7269\u5708\u3001\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u3001\u5ca9\u77f3\u5708\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5708\u7b49\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ee5\u53ca\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u7269\u7406\u3001\u5316\u5b66\u548c\u751f\u7269\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u4e0d\u65ad\u52a0\u6df1\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5168\u9762\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f71\u54cd\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u5927\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u6a21\u62df\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08ESMs\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u57fa\u4e8e\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u9ad8\u6027\u80fd\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u8fdb\u884c\u79bb\u6563\u5316\u7684\u6570\u503c\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1ESMs\u901a\u8fc7\u63d0\u9ad8\u6570\u503c\u6c42\u89e3\u5668\u7684\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u6a21\u5757\u6765\u589e\u5f3a\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u65b9\u6848\u4e0d\u5145\u5206\u4f18\u5316\u6216\u65b0\u5f15\u5165\u7684\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u672a\u80fd\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u5757\u6709\u6548\u8026\u5408\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u53cd\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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ESMs\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u7269\u7406\u3001\u5316\u5b66\u548c\u751f\u7269\u8fc7\u7a0b\u65f6\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u52a9\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7406\u89e3\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u7403\u5708\u5c42\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u6d4b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u4e0e\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08GCMs\uff09<\/span>\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0cESMs\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u590d\u6742\u4e92\u52a8\u8fc7\u7a0b\u65b9\u9762\u5177\u6709\u663e\u8457\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u63d0\u4f9b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u6587\u732e\u56de\u987e\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53ca\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\u4e0a\uff0c\u8f83\u5c11\u5173\u6ce8\u5730\u8d28\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u672c\u7efc\u8ff0\u65e8\u5728\u63a2\u8ba8\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u5708\u5c42\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u6a21\u62df\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u56de\u987e\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u7a0b\u3001\u603b\u7ed3\u4e3b\u8981\u6311\u6218\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c55\u671b\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u673a\u9047\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u4e3a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u5347\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u5e94\u7528\u6027\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u601d\u8def\u548c\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/span>\uff08\u56fe1\uff09<\/span>\u59cb\u4e8e20\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u63cf\u8ff0\u5927\u6c14\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4 <\/span>(Abbe, 1906; Bjerknes, 1906)<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u968f\u540e\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6574\u5408\u5e76\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u3001\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u51b3\u7b56\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u7efc\u5408\u6027ESMs\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/span> (Shepelev, 1965; Checkland, 1976)<\/span>\u300220\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u79d1\u5b66\u5408\u4f5c\u6269\u5927\uff0c1957-1958\u5e74\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u5e74<\/span> (IGY) <\/span>\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5178\u8303<\/span> (Beynon, 2018)<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u7a7a\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u534f\u8c03\u4e8667\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u5730\u7403\u5708\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u5173\u6ce8\u51b0\u5ddd\u5b66\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u5b66\u548c\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u300220\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u751f\u6001\u548c\u73af\u5883\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u53d1\u5c55<\/span> (Warde et al., 2018) <\/span>\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u5730\u5708\u751f\u7269\u5708\u8ba1\u5212 <\/span>(IGBP) (Dutreuil, 2016; Kwa, 2006; Uhrqvist, 2014)<\/span>\u3002\u8be5\u8ba1\u5212\u8865\u5145\u4e861980\u5e74\u542f\u52a8\u7684\u3001\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7269\u7406\u6c14\u5019\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u6c14\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u8ba1\u5212<\/span> (WCRP)<\/span>\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u7269\u7406\u548c\u5316\u5b66\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u5e76\u6574\u5408\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u8868\u9762\u4e0e\u5927\u6c14\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u548c\u7269\u8d28\u4ea4\u6362\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u51fa\u4e86\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684ESMs <\/span>(Dalmedico, 2010; Flato et al., 2013; He et al., 2019)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe1. \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u767e\u5e74\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u7a0b<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4eba\u7c7b\u5708\u2014\u2014ESMs\u4e2d\u4eba\u7c7b\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u65b0\u89c6\u89d2<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u5730\u8d28\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u63d0\u51fa”\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16”\u7684\u6982\u5ff5 <\/strong><\/span>(Waters et al., 2016; Crutzen, 2002)<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u5730\u8d28\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u4e5f\u8868\u660e\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u5728\u504f\u79bb\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001<\/strong><\/span> <\/strong>(Steffen and Pyke, 2004)<\/span>\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u5708\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206 <\/span>(Motesharrei et al., 2016)<\/span>\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6539\u53d8\u78b3\u6c2e\u5faa\u73af\u3001\u5f71\u54cd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7b49\u65b9\u5f0f\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span> (Kuhn and Heckelei, 2010)<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4fc3\u4f7f\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4eba\u7c7b-\u73af\u5883\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5982BNU-HESM<\/span> (Yang et al., 2015) <\/span>\u548cDICE<\/span> (Nordhaus, 1993) <\/span>\u7b49\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u6355\u6349\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u590d\u6742\u53cd\u9988\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u8868\u8fbe\u4eba\u7c7b-\u73af\u5883\u7cfb\u7edf\u53cc\u5411\u8026\u5408\u65b9\u9762\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u5c40\u9650<\/strong><\/span> (Calvin and Bond-Lamberty, 2018)<\/span>\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u793e\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u65b9\u9762 <\/strong><\/span>(Beckage et al., 2020; Peng et al., 2021)<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u8981\u6c42\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u5c55\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span> (Galvani et al., 2016)<\/span>\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b-\u73af\u5883\u7cfb\u7edf\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u7406\u89e3 <\/span>(Moran and Lopez, 2016)<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u6539\u8fdb\u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u6a21\u62df\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u6001\u53d8\u5316<\/span> (Ramanathan et al., 2022)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u5ca9\u77f3\u5708\u2014\u2014\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6f14\u5316<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5ca9\u77f3\u5708\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5316\u5b66\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5708\u5c42\u53d1\u751f\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528<\/span> (Kaufman and Broadman, 2023; Tierney et al., 2020)<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u5730\u8d28\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u677f\u5757\u6784\u9020\u8fd0\u52a8\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u5730\u7403\u8868\u9762\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6f14\u5316<\/span> (V\u00e9rard, 2019)<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u8f83\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u706b\u5c71\u55b7\u53d1\u548c\u5730\u9707\u7b49\u5730\u8d28\u6d3b\u52a8\u5219\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u533a\u57df\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316<\/span> (Knight et al., 2021)<\/span>\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u4f7f\u5f97\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u80fd\u66f4\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u6d4b\u5b9a\u5730\u8d28\u5e74\u4ee3<\/span> (Roberts and Walker, 2016; Mottram et al., 2015)<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u53d1\u51fa\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u677f\u5757\u6784\u9020\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u751f\u7269\u5730\u7403\u5316\u5b66\u5faa\u73af\u6a21\u578b\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u8026\u5408 <\/span>(Kaplan et al., 2003; Follows and Dutkiewicz, 2011)<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u5ca9\u77f3\u5708\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5708\u5c42\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u89c2\u6d4b\u6280\u672f\u4e0d\u65ad\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u666f\u89c2\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u9000\u5316\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4ecd\u672a\u88ab\u5b8c\u5168\u7406\u89e3<\/strong><\/span> (Council, 2010)<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u6765\u63ed\u793a\u5730\u7403\u5404\u5708\u5c42\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u8054\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u2014\u2014\u5168\u7403\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u89d2\u8272<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5173\u952e\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5316\u5b66\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5708\u5c42\u8fdb\u884c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528<\/span> (Steffen et al., 2018)<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u901a\u8fc7\u6539\u53d8\u5730\u8868\u53cd\u7167\u7387\u3001\u91ca\u653e\u50a8\u5b58\u7684\u6709\u673a\u78b3\u3001\u5f71\u54cd\u6c34\u6587\u5faa\u73af\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u9014\u5f84\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf <\/strong><\/span>(Su et al., 2019)<\/span>\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u6b63\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u6539\u8fdb\u5bf9\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u5404\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u96ea\u76d6<\/span> (Krinner et al., 2018)<\/span>\u3001\u51b0\u76d6<\/span> (Madsen et al., 2022) <\/span>\u548c\u591a\u5e74\u51bb\u571f<\/span>(de Vrese et al., 2022)<\/span>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u9650\u5236 <\/span>(Li et al., 2021) <\/span>\u4ee5\u53ca\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5708\u5c42\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u65f6\u4ecd\u9762\u4e34\u8bf8\u591a\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u51c6\u786e\u8bc4\u4f30\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u6548\u5e94\u65b9\u9762<\/span> (Lawrence et al., 2015)<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5b8c\u5584\u89c2\u6d4b\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u66f4\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8026\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u5728\u5168\u7403\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n
<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u4e09\u3001\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u673a\u9047<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n
<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n

\u4eba\u7c7b\u5708\u2014\u2014\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u878d\u5165\u4eba-\u81ea\u7136\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u6709\u6548\u6574\u5408\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0e\u81ea\u7136\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u590d\u6742\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08\u56fe2\uff09(Steffen et al., 2015)<\/span>\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u591a\u79cd\u5de5\u5177\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b<\/span> (IAMs)<\/span>\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ee3\u7406\u7684\u6a21\u578b<\/span> (ABMs)(An, 2012; An et al., 2014) <\/span>\u4ee5\u53ca\u6295\u5165-\u4ea7\u51fa\u5206\u6790\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u6570\u636e\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u8026\u5408\u7814\u7a76\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u9650\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u91cf\u5316\u4eba\u7c7b-\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u5c55\u201c\u65b9\u6cd5\u591a\u6837\u6027\u201d<\/span> (Verburg et al., 2016) <\/span>\u548c\u201c\u6a21\u578b\u4ea4\u53c9\u6bd4\u8f83\u201d <\/span>(Zvoleff and An, 2014)<\/span>\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u786e\u4fdd\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u548c\u6982\u5ff5\u6846\u67b6\u201d <\/span>(Palmer and Smith, 2014)<\/span>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u5408\u4f5c<\/span>(Newell, 2012; Hibbard et al., 2010)<\/span>\u3001\u6539\u8fdb\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u5143\u6570\u636e\u7ba1\u7406 <\/span>(Palmer and Smith, 2014)<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4fc3\u8fdb\u793e\u533a\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u5f00\u653e\u534f\u4f5c <\/span>(Laniak et al., 2013) <\/span>\u90fd\u662f\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe2. \u4eba\u7c7b\u5708\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5708\u5c42\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u5ca9\u77f3\u5708\u2014\u2014\u5c06\u5176\u6f14\u5316\u7eb3\u5165\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u677f\u5757\u6784\u9020\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u5730\u5e54\u70ed\u5bf9\u6d41\u7406\u8bba\uff0cKaban\u7b49\u4eba<\/span> (2016) <\/span>\u901a\u8fc7\u6574\u5408\u91cd\u529b\u3001GPS\u7b49\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u5168\u7403\u5730\u58f3\u548c\u5730\u5e54\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u5ca9\u77f3\u5708\u8fb9\u754c\u4f4d\u7f6e\u548c\u4e3b\u8981\u5c42\u7684\u7269\u7406\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u6df1\u90e8\u5730\u5e54\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7ea6\u675f\u3002\u867d\u7136Hager\u548cO’Connell<\/span> (1981) <\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u6a21\u578b\u5e2e\u52a9\u9610\u660e\u4e86\u677f\u5757\u4e0e\u5730\u5e54\u5bf9\u6d41\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8026\u5408\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5730\u7403\u5185\u90e8\u96be\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u89c2\u6d4b <\/span>(Bergen et al., 2019)<\/span>\uff0c\u51c6\u786e\u6a21\u62df\u677f\u5757\u8fd0\u52a8\u53ca\u5176\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ec4\u5206\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4ecd\u9762\u4e34\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\u3002\u672a\u6765\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d1\u5c55\u7efc\u5408\u5ca9\u77f3\u5708\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8026\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u677f\u5757\u6784\u9020\u8fd0\u52a8\u53ca\u5176\u73af\u5883\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u2014\u2014\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u91cd\u8981\u4f46\u5e38\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u6b63\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u6574\u5408\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span> (Giorgetta et al., 2013)<\/span>\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5c06\u51b0\u76d6\u3001\u6d77\u51b0\u548c\u591a\u5e74\u51bb\u571f\u7b49\u4e3b\u8981\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u7eb3\u5165\u6a21\u578b\u6846\u67b6<\/span>\uff08\u56fe3\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u51b0-\u6c34\u6c7d\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u5c40\u90e8\u51b7\u5374\u6548\u5e94\u51cf\u7f13\u51b0\u5ddd\u6d88\u5931<\/span> (Lin et al., 2021; Salerno et al., 2023) <\/span>\u3002\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8003\u8651\u591a\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53e4\u6c14\u5019\u591a\u5e74\u51bb\u571f\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u89e6\u53d1\u5668\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3001\u6781\u5730\u653e\u5927\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51b0-\u6c34\u6c7d\u4ea4\u6362\u673a\u5236\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u91c7\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c06\u5b9e\u65f6\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u6574\u5408\u5230\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6a21\u62df\u7cbe\u5ea6\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6539\u8fdb\u5c06\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6781\u5730\u548c\u5bd2\u51b7\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe3. \u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5708\u5c42\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6846\u67b6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u6838\u5fc3\u57fa\u4e8e\u6d41\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u9ad8\u7ea7\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6709\u9650\u5dee\u5206\u548c\u6709\u9650\u5143\u65b9\u6cd5\u6a21\u62df\u5730\u5e54\u548c\u5730\u6838\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u590d\u6742\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong>\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u6a21\u578b\u91c7\u7528\u6a21\u5757\u5316\u8bbe\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c06\u4e0d\u540c\u5708\u5c42<\/span>\uff08\u5927\u6c14\u5708\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u5708\u3001\u5ca9\u77f3\u5708\u548c\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\uff09<\/span>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u72ec\u7acb\u6a21\u5757\uff0c\u4fbf\u4e8e\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u66ff\u6362\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u91c7\u7528\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u7f51\u683c\u7ec6\u5316<\/span> (AMR) <\/span>\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u5173\u952e\u533a\u57df\u8fdb\u884c\u9ad8\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u7ed3\u5408\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u6280\u672f\u63d0\u9ad8\u6a21\u62df\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002\u8be5\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\u4e0d\u4ec5\u80fd\u6a21\u62df\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5404\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd8\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u589e\u5f3a\u7684\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u548c\u751f\u7269\u5730\u7403\u5316\u5b66\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6a21\u62df\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5176\u7075\u6d3b\u53ef\u6269\u5c55\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7279\u70b9\u4f7f\u5176\u6613\u4e8e\u4e0e\u5e76\u884c\u8ba1\u7b97\u67b6\u6784\u548c\u9ad8\u6027\u80fd\u8ba1\u7b97\u5e73\u53f0\u96c6\u6210\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u80fd\u591f\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u591a\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u8de8\u65f6\u7a7a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5efa\u6a21<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u591a\u5708\u5c42\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u65f6\u9700\u8981\u5e94\u5bf9\u8de8\u8d8a\u7a7a\u95f4\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6311\u6218<\/strong><\/span>\uff08\u56fe4\uff09(Johnson et al., 2023)<\/span>\u3002\u4e2d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u73b0\u8c61<\/span> (\u5982\u9178\u96e8\u3001\u6d2a\u6c34\u7b49) <\/span>\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6a21\u62df\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u63d0\u9ad8\u7f51\u683c\u5206\u8fa8\u7387<\/span> (Bacmeister et al., 2014) <\/span>\u3001\u91c7\u7528\u65b0\u578b\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u5982\u7403\u5f62\u4e2d\u5fc3Voronoi\u9576\u5d4c<\/span> (Du et al., 1999) <\/span>\u7b49\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd0\u7528\u9ad8\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u964d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u3001\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u548c\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u7b49\u591a\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u6743\u8861\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u4e0e\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u91c7\u7528\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u8026\u5408\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5e76\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u9ad8\u6027\u80fd\u8ba1\u7b97\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u3001\u5927\u6570\u636e\u7b49\u65b0\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5173\u6ce8\u533a\u57df\u7279\u5f81<\/span> (\u5982\u9752\u85cf\u9ad8\u539f) <\/span>\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd <\/span>(Chen et al., 2021)<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u671f\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u6a21\u62df\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u4eba\u4e3a\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe4. \u5404\u79cd\u5730\u7403\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u3002\u7eb5\u8f74\u8868\u793a\u4ece0.1\u79d2\u5230\u767e\u4e07\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u6a2a\u8f74\u8868\u793a\u4ece\u6beb\u7c73\u5230\u5341\u4e07\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u540c\u989c\u8272\u548c\u5f62\u72b6\u7684\u692d\u5706\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5404\u5708\u5c42\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u5c3a\u5ea6<\/span><\/section>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7269\u7406\u4e0e\u6570\u636e\u662f\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53cc\u9a71\u52a8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

\u7b2c\u56db\u8303\u5f0f\u5f3a\u8c03\u5927\u6570\u636e\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\/\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u89c2\u6d4b\u4e0e\u5c40\u90e8\u9ad8\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u6a21\u62df\u6574\u5408<\/span>\uff08\u56fe6\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4f20\u7edf\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b<\/span> (Chen et al., 2020) <\/span>\u5df2\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span> (LeCun et al., 2015) <\/span>\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u9762\u4e34\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u8868\u5f81\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u3002\u4e3a\u63d0\u5347\u6a21\u578b\u6027\u80fd\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u6a21\u578b\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u6301\u7eed\u52aa\u529b<\/span> (Silvern, 2022; Wang et al., 2023)<\/span>\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\/\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u4f18\u5316\u6a21\u62df\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b\u3001\u6539\u8fdb\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u6784\u5efa\u80fd\u591f\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6570\u636e-\u6a21\u578b\u878d\u5408\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span> (Gettelman et al., 2022)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe5. \u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u6a21\u578b\u52a9\u529b\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u53d1\u5c55<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6a21\u578b\u7ec4\u4ef6\u7684\u8026\u5408<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8026\u5408\u7b56\u7565\u9762\u4e34\u591a\u91cd\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6d89\u53ca\u8026\u5408\u9891\u7387\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u53d8\u91cf\u4ea4\u6362\u548c\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u5904\u7406\u3002\u5728\u8026\u5408\u9891\u7387\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5e73\u8861\u7269\u7406\u73b0\u5b9e\u6027\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u5982\u5927\u6c14-\u9646\u5730\u8868\u9762\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u9700\u8981\u9ad8\u9891\u8026\u5408\uff0c\u800c\u6d77\u6d0b\u751f\u7269\u5730\u7403\u5316\u5b66\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u91c7\u7528\u4f4e\u9891\u8026\u5408\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u8026\u5408\u7b56\u7565\u91c7\u7528\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u52a8\u6001\u8c03\u6574\u8026\u5408\u9891\u7387\u5e76\u4f18\u5316\u6570\u636e\u4ea4\u6362\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u9762\u4e34\u6570\u503c\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u74f6\u9888\u548c\u5b88\u6052\u6027\u7ef4\u6301\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u3002\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\u5305\u62ec\u5f00\u53d1\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u8026\u5408\u65b9\u6848\u3001\u6539\u8fdb\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u6570\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5229\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4f18\u5316\u8026\u5408\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u5408\u4f5c\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6a21\u578b\u6548\u7387\u548c\u7269\u7406\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5e73\u8861\u6a21\u578b\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u53ef\u7528\u6027<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u9762\u4e34\u79d1\u5b66\u5168\u9762\u6027\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u6311\u6218\u3002\u4e3a\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u5206\u5c42\u6a21\u578b\u7ed3\u6784\u5141\u8bb8\u7528\u6237\u6839\u636e\u7814\u7a76\u9700\u6c42\u9009\u62e9\u5408\u9002\u7684\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u7ea7\u522b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u7f51\u683c\u7ec6\u5316\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u63d0\u9ad8\u8ba1\u7b97\u6548\u7387\u3002\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u6574\u5408\u677f\u5757\u6784\u9020\u548c\u53e4\u5730\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u6784\u5efa\u4eba\u7c7b-\u73af\u5883\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u8fdc\u8ddd\u79bb\u5f71\u54cd\u3001\u5f15\u5165\u591a\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u8de8\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u63a8\u8fdb\u6a21\u578b-\u6570\u636e\u878d\u5408\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u6539\u8fdb\u7528\u6237\u754c\u9762\u3001\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u6587\u6863\u548c\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u8bca\u65ad\u5de5\u5177\u63d0\u9ad8\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u7528\u6027\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u6a21\u578b\u65e2\u80fd\u6ee1\u8db3\u79d1\u5b66\u9700\u6c42\u53c8\u4fbf\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/h2>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u56db\u3001\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e0e\u5c55\u671b<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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Zvoleff, A., An, L., 2014. The effect of reciprocal connections between demographic decision making and land use on decadal dynamics of population and land-use change. Ecol. Soc. 19 (2), 31.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\uff08\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u53ef\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52a8<\/strong>\u67e5\u770b\uff09<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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-\u6d3b\u52a8\u9884\u544a-<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u9648\u5fb7\u4eae\uff1a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u65b0\u8303\u5f0f\uff5c\u5468\u516d \u00b7 \u5317\u4eac\u7ebf\u4e0b\u8bb2\u5ea7<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
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1. <\/strong>Physics Reports\u91cd\u78c5\u7efc\u8ff0\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u63a2\u7d22<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
2. <\/strong>\u5f53\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u9047\u89c1\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
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4. <\/strong><\/span>\u5f20\u6c5f\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u57fa\u7840\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u53ef\u5fae\u5206\u7f16\u7a0b\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406 | \u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\u5168\u65b0\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/strong>5. <\/strong>\u89e3\u9501\u96c6\u667a\u5168\u7ad9\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5f00\u542f\u65b0\u5e74\u5b66\u4e60\u8ba1\u5212<\/a><\/strong><\/section>\n

6. <\/strong>\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

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