{"id":56773,"date":"2025-02-14T16:43:28","date_gmt":"2025-02-14T08:43:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=56773"},"modified":"2025-02-14T16:43:28","modified_gmt":"2025-02-14T08:43:28","slug":"%e5%9c%b0%e7%90%83%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e6%96%b0%e8%8c%83%e5%bc%8f%ef%bc%9a%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e4%b8%8e%e4%ba%ba%e5%b7%a5%e6%99%ba%e8%83%bd%e4%ba%a4%e5%8f%89%e5%89%8d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=56773","title":{"rendered":"\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u65b0\u8303\u5f0f\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4ea4\u53c9\u524d\u6cbf | \u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u542f\u52a8"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u6a0a\u4eac\u82b3<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u6ce2\u8328\u5766\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u62c5\u4efb\u8bbf\u95ee\u6559\u6388\u3002\u535a\u58eb\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u3002\u66fe\u5728\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u5df4\u4f0a\u5170\u5927\u5b66\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u6ce2\u8328\u5766\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5206\u522b\u4ece\u4e8b\u535a\u58eb\u540e\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u548c\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u8bbf\u95ee\u5b66\u8005\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u4e3a\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5730\u9707\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b\u7b49\u3002\u4ee5\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f5c\u8005\u6216\u901a\u8baf\u4f5c\u8005\u5728Nature Physics\uff0cNature Climate Change, Nature Communications, PNAS<\/em>\u7b49\u5b66\u672f\u671f\u520a\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u658760\u4f59\u7bc7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6234\u542f\u7acb<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5357\u5f00\u5927\u5b66\u526f\u6559\u6388\u3002\u56f4\u7ed5\u7a7a\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3\u6765\u6e90\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4ece\u4e8b\u73af\u5883\u5927\u6570\u636e\u6316\u6398\u3001\u7a7a\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u7814\u53d1\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u8f85\u52a9\u7684\u7a7a\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3\u6210\u56e0\u8bca\u65ad\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u8bc4\u4f30\u6280\u672f\uff08AI4Air\uff09\u3001\u63ed\u793a\u5e76\u89e3\u8026\u201c\u7a7a\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3-\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8-\u5929\u6c14\u6c14\u5019\u201d\u7684\u590d\u6742\u5173\u8054\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u73ed\u5d2d<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u535a\u58eb\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e8e\u7231\u5c14\u5170\u90fd\u67cf\u6797\u5927\u5b66\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u4e3a AI4science\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5305\u62ec\u6d77\u6d0b\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u751f\u7269\u5927\u5206\u5b50\u6db2\u6db2\u76f8\u5206\u79bb\u548c\u5730\u7403\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e00\u4f5c\u6216\u5171\u4e00\u5728nature climate change\u548cpnas\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u8fc7\u8bba\u6587\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5982\u9700\u7528\u652f\u4ed8\u5b9d\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u8bf7\u5728PC\u7aef\u8fdb\u5165\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u9875\u9762\u62a5\u540d\u652f\u4ed8\uff1a<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
https:\/\/pattern.swarma.org\/study_group\/5<\/em>7<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
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PS\uff1a\u4e3a\u786e\u4fdd\u4e13\u4e1a\u6027\u548c\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u805a\u7126\uff0c\u672c\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u8c22\u7edd\u8131\u79bb\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u4e3b\u9898\u548c\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u7a7a\u6cdb\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u548c\u601d\u8fa8\u5f0f\u8ba8\u8bba\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u8ba8\u8bba\u5185\u5bb9\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u8981\u6c42\u3001\u7ecf\u63d0\u9192\u65e0\u6548\u8005\uff0c\u4f1a\u88ab\u79fb\u9664\u7fa4\u804a\u5e76\u5bf9\u672a\u53c2\u4e0e\u90e8\u5206\u9000\u8d39\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


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\u52a0\u5165\u793e\u533a\u540e\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n
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PS\uff1a\u5177\u4f53\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u52a0\u5165\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u540e\u67e5\u770b\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u5171\u521b\u4efb\u52a1\u5217\u8868\uff0c\u9886\u53d6\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4e0e\u8fd0\u8425\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\u6c9f\u901a\u8be6\u60c5\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u89e3\u91ca\u6743\u5f52\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u6240\u6709\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

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\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3 ESM \u5e94\u8be5\u91c7\u7528\u52a8\u6001\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u65f6\u7a7a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u66f4\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u8868\u793a\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u7269\u7406\u548c\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u548c\u8c10\u878d\u5408\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u5b9e\u73b0\u66f4\u9ad8\u7cbe\u5ea6\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u6548\u7387\u7684 ESM\uff0c\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u6355\u6349\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Pan, Xiaoduo, et al. “Evolution and prospects of Earth system models: Challenges and opportunities.” Earth-Science Reviews<\/em> (2024): 104986.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u732e\u5efa\u8bae\u5021\u8bae\u5730\u7403\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u9002\u5e94\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u5e94\u8be5\u8003\u8651\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u3001\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u548c\u5730\u7403\u8fb9\u754c\u7b49\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u751f\u7269\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u6574\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u771f\u6b63\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Steffen W, Richardson K, Rockstr\u00f6m J, Schellnhuber H J, Dube O P, Dutreuil S, Lenton T M, Lubchenco J. The emergence and evolution of Earth System Science[J]. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2020, 1(1): 54\u201363.<\/span><\/section>\n

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Fan, J., Meng, J., Chen, X., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2024). Complexity science meets Earth system. Science Bulletin<\/em>.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u8fd9\u7bc7\u53d1\u8868\u4e8ePNAS\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc72\u00b0C\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9608\u503c\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6fc0\u6d3b\u5176\u4ed6\u4e34\u754c\u7ea7\u8054\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u9aa8\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4f7f\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u5730\u8fbe\u5230\u66f4\u9ad8\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c\u5bf9\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u7834\u574f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Steffen, W., Rockstr\u00f6m, J., Richardson, K., Lenton, T. M., Folke, C., Liverman, D., … & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2018). Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/em>, 115<\/em>(33), 8252-8259.<\/span><\/section>\n
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Chen, X., Liu, T., Ma, X., Xia, Y., Fan, J., & Xie, F. (2024). Eigen Micostate Theory of Complex Systems and its Application in Earth System (No. EGU24-7090). Copernicus Meetings.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u672c\u7efc\u8ff0\u65e8\u5728\u5168\u9762\u6982\u62ec\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\uff08\u5982\u4e34\u754c\u73b0\u8c61\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u6e17\u6ee4\u3001\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u3001\u71b5\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u590d\u6742\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u79d1\u5b66\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6574\u5408\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\u548c\u89c6\u89d2\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5e94\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5efa\u6a21\u548c\u5206\u6790\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u5173\u952e\u7279\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Shang, W. A. N. G., Jun, M. E. N. G., Xiaosong, C. H. E. N., & Jingfang, F. A. N. (2023). An overview of complexity studies on Earth systems. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science)<\/em>, 59<\/em>(5), 796-805.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u7ffb\u8f6c\u8981\u7d20\u662f\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u9608\u503c\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7a81\u7136\u4e14\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u5730\u4ece\u4e00\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7ffb\u8f6c\u4f1a\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u4ed6\u533a\u57df\u6216\u7ffb\u8f6c\u8981\u7d20\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u6c14\u5019\u7f51\u7edc\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u5206\u6790\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u96e8\u6797\u5730\u533a\uff08ARA\uff09\u8fd9\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u7ffb\u8f6c\u8981\u7d20\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u94fe\u63a5\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ea7\u8054\u7ffb\u8f6c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Liu, T., Chen, D., Yang, L., Meng, J., Wang, Z., Ludescher, J., … & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2023). Teleconnections among tipping elements in the Earth system. Nature Climate Change<\/em>, 13<\/em>(1), 67-74.<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9a71\u52a8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u5177\u6709\u6574\u5408\u591a\u6e90\u6570\u636e, \u8bc6\u522b\u6f5c\u5728\u4fe1\u606f, \u5b66\u4e60\u5df2\u6709 \u201c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u201d \u7b49\u4f18\u52bf, \u6709\u671b\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u63d0\u4f9b\u65b0\u7684\u52a9\u529b\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u6f14\u53d8\u673a\u7406, \u6c14\u5019\u670d\u52a1\u4ee5\u53ca\u9884\u4f30\u672a\u6765\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u5316\u60c5\u666f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u9648\u5fb7\u4eae, \u8c2d\u663e\u6625, \u5f6d\u5586, \u95eb\u6d2a\u7855, & \u7a0b\u6c38\u9f99. (2024). \u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684\u673a\u9047\u4e0e\u6311\u6218. \u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u5c55<\/em>, 0.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u5929\u6c14\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9884\u6d4b\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Materia, Stefano, et al. “Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives.” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change<\/em> 15.6 (2024): e914.<\/span><\/section>\n
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Zhao, T., Wang, S., Ouyang, C., Chen, M., Liu, C., Zhang, J., … & Wang, L. (2024). Artificial intelligence for geoscience: Progress, challenges and perspectives. The Innovation<\/em>.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60 \uff08IML\uff09 \u53d1\u5c55\u8fc5\u901f\uff0c\u4e3a\u63d0\u9ad8\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u91cf\u5316\u7279\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u751f\u6210\u6709\u5173\u6f5c\u5728\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u4ee5\u53ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Jiang, Shijie, et al. “How interpretable machine learning can benefit process understanding in the geosciences.” Earth’s Future<\/em> 12.7 (2024): e2024EF004540.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u65ad\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u6bd4\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bef\u5dee\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u4e9a\u7f51\u683c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6216\u672a\u77e5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8868\u793a\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5177\u6709\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u52a0\u901f\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u96c6\u6210\u3001\u5730\u7403\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f7f\u7528\u548c\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Eyring, V., Gentine, P., Camps-Valls, G., Lawrence, D. M., & Reichstein, M. (2024). AI-empowered next-generation multiscale climate modelling for mitigation and adaptation. Nature Geoscience<\/em>, 1-9.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u5efa\u6a21\u548c\u5206\u6790\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u589e\u5f3a\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u65b0\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5f00\u53d1\u4fdd\u771f\u5ea6\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u62df\u5668\u63d0\u4f9b\u65b0\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u5927\u578b\u96c6\u5408\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u589e\u5f3a\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u68c0\u6d4b\u548c\u5f52\u56e0\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u6790\u548c\u57fa\u51c6\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u6f5c\u529b\u9700\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u5173\u952e\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6cdb\u5316\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u91cf\u5316\u3001\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Eyring, V., Collins, W. D., Gentine, P., Barnes, E. A., Barreiro, M., Beucler, T., … & Zanna, L. (2024). Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning. Nature Climate Change<\/em>, 14<\/em>(9), 916-928.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u7efc\u8ff0\u4e2d\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u3002\u8ba8\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u4f7f\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u91cd\u5efa\u3001\u6b21\u7f51\u683c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u73b0\u8c61\u8868\u793a\u548c\u6c14\u5019\uff08\u548c\u5929\u6c14\uff09\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u9762\u957f\u671f\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5229\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7814\u7a76\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u597d\u5904\u548c\u4e3b\u8981\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Bracco, A., Brajard, J., Dijkstra, H. A., Hassanzadeh, P., Lessig, C., & Monteleoni, C. (2024). Machine learning for the physics of climate. Nature Reviews Physics<\/em>, 1-15.<\/span><\/section>\n
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Ham, YG., Kim, JH., Min, SK. et al.<\/em> Anthropogenic fingerprints in daily precipitation revealed by deep learning. Nature<\/em> 622<\/strong>, 301\u2013307 (2023).<\/span><\/section>\n
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Reichstein M, Camps-Valls G, Stevens B, Jung M, Denzler J, Carvalhais N, Prabhat. Nature Publishing Group, 2019. Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science[J]. Nature, 2019, 566(7743): 195\u2013204.<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u89c2\u6d4b\u624b\u6bb5\u4e0e\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u89c2\u6d4b\u662f\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e24\u79cd\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u652f\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u8ffd\u6eaf\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u4e0e\u7406\u6027\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u534f\u540c\u6f14\u8fdb\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5b83\u4e0e\u4f30\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u8bba\u7684\u6e0a\u6e90\uff0c\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u56fd\u5185\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u8fd1\u671f\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u5c55\u671b\u4e86\u8d70\u5411\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u674e\u65b0, \u5218\u4e30, \u65b9\u82d7. \u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u548c\u5f26: \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316[J]. \u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66: \u5730\u7403\u79d1\u5b66, 2020, 50(9): 1 185-1 194 (Li Xin, Liu Feng, Fang Miao. Harmonizing Models and Observations: Data Assimilation in Earth System Science[J].<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u5728\u4fc3\u8fdb\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u201d\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u201c\u5de5\u7a0b\u5de5\u5177\u201d\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u53cc\u91cd\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5168\u9762\u7684\u7efc\u8ff0\uff0c\u9610\u660e\u4e86 LDA \u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u53d1\u5c55\u53ca\u5176\u72ec\u7279\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u89e3\u51b3\u5730\u8868\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u5f3a\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u3001\u63a2\u7d22\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u4e2d\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7a7a\u95f4\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u540c\u65f6\u4f30\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u53c2\u6570\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7a81\u7834\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Li, X., Liu, F., Ma, C., Hou, J., Zheng, D., Ma, H., … & Huang, C. (2024). Land data assimilation: Harmonizing theory and data in land surface process studies. Reviews of Geophysics<\/em>, 62<\/em>(1), e2022RG000801.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u5730\u7403\u6570\u5b57\u5b6a\u751f\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u8bbe\u60f3\u5c06\u5730\u7403\u5927\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u57fa\u4e8e\u7269\u7406\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u878d\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea4\u4e92\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u80fd\u591f\u76d1\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u73af\u5883\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6270\u52a8\uff0c\u4ee5\u7528\u4e8e\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6cbb\u7406\u3002\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u4e3a\u5c06\u9ad8\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7eb3\u5165\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Li, Xin, et al. “Big Data in Earth system science and progress towards a digital twin.” Nature Reviews Earth & Environment<\/em> 4.5 (2023): 319-332.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u548c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u96c6\u6210\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5c06\u591a\u6e90\u89c2\u6d4b\u7eb3\u5165\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u4f30\u8ba1\u84b8\u6563\u91cf\u548c\u603b\u521d\u7ea7\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
He, Xinlei, et al. “Innovative approach for estimating evapotranspiration and gross primary productivity by integrating land data assimilation, machine learning, and multi-source observations.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology<\/em> 355 (2024): 110136.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u9762\u5411\u79d1\u5b66\u6570\u636e\u5168\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5b89\u5168\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21 \u578b\u3001\u5b89\u5168\u6307\u6807\u4f53\u7cfb, \u4ee5\u53ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u65b9\u6cd5, \u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\u6570\u636e\u5b89\u5168\u8bc4\u4f30\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Nie Xiaowei, Pan Xiaoduo, Li Xin, Wang Shouyang, Jin Jing, Yang Yang,\u9762\u5411\u79d1\u5b66\u6570\u636e\u5168\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5b89\u5168\u8bc4\u4f30\u673a\u5236, Chinese Science Bulletin, 2024.<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u4e34\u754c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0e\u610f\u4e49\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u62db\u52df\u5171\u521b\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\u4e34\u754c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6765\u81ea\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f46\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u3001\u751f\u6001\u3001\u5927\u8111\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7b49\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e3b\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u7406\u6e05\u4e34\u754c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u4e34\u754c\u80cc\u540e\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u732e\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u542b\u4e49\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u4eba\u4e3a\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0b\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u76f8\u5173\u4e34\u754c\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u7f16\u7ec7\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u8981\u7d20\u6e05\u5355\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Lenton T M, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall J W, Lucht W, Rahmstorf S, Schellnhuber H J. Tipping elements in the Earth\u2019s climate system[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2008, 105(6): 1786\u20131793.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u4e34\u754c\u9884\u8b66\u4fe1\u53f7\u8bc6\u522b<\/span><\/section>\n
Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock W A, Brovkin V, Carpenter S R, Dakos V, Held H, van Nes E H, Rietkerk M, Sugihara G. Early-warning signals for critical transitions[J]. Nature, 2009, 461(7260): 53\u201359.<\/span><\/section>\n
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Lenton T M, Rockstr\u00f6m J, Gaffney O, Rahmstorf S, Richardson K, Steffen W, Schellnhuber H J. Nature Publishing Group, 2019. Climate tipping points \u2014 too risky to bet against[J]. Nature, 2019, 575(7784): 592\u2013595.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u591a\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u611f\u77e5\u7684\u62bd\u8c61\u6027\u4f7f\u5176\u65e0\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u5730\u89e6\u53d1\u884c\u52a8\u548c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u6cbb\u7406\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6846\u67b6\u8fd8\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u51c6\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7279\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6df7\u6dc6\u3002\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5021\u5bfc\u4f7f\u7528\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\u3001\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u6807\u8bb0\u4e3a\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5e76\u6279\u5224\u6027\u5730\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u662f\u5426\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u53ef\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u79d1\u5b66\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Kopp, R. E., Gilmore, E. A., Shwom, R. L., Adams, H., Adler, C., Oppenheimer, M., … & York, R. (2024). \u2018Tipping points\u2019 confuse and can distract from urgent climate action. Nature Climate Change<\/em>, 1-8.<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u591a\u7cfb\u7edf\u8026\u5408\u7684\u5730\u7403\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


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\u6c14\u5019\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n

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\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u6307\u4e16\u754c\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u957f\u671f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u7bc7\u7efc\u8ff0\u8bba\u6587\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7f13\u89e3\u548c\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u5982\u4eba\u7c7b\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u4f5c\u7269\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7ed3\u8bba\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u76d1\u6d4b\u901a\u8fc7\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u7ba1\u7406\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u957f\u671f\u589e\u957f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Rawat, A., Kumar, D., & Khati, B. S. (2024). A review on climate change impacts, models, and its consequences on different sectors: a systematic approach. Journal of Water and Climate Change<\/em>, 15<\/em>(1), 104-126.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4ee5\u590d\u6742\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u65e9\u671f\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u3001\u9002\u5e94\u548c\u8fdb\u5316\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u7efc\u8ff0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u6709\u5173\u8fc7\u53bb\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u7269\u79cd\u8fdb\u5316\u8f68\u8ff9\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1aTimmermann, A., Raia, P., Mondanaro, A., Zollikofer, C. P., Ponce de Le\u00f3n, M., Zeller, E., & Yun, K. S. (2024). Past climate change effects on human evolution. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment<\/em>, 1-16.<\/span><\/section>\n
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J\u00e9z\u00e9quel, A., Bastos, A., Faranda, D., Kimutai, J., Le Grix, N., Wilson, A. M., … & Zscheischler, J. (2024). Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution. Environmental Research: Climate<\/em>, 3<\/em>(4), 042003.<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u4e2a\u6570\u4e00\u76f4\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u7ea690\u4e2a\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u673a\u5236\u4ecd\u7136\u96be\u4ee5\u6349\u6478\u3002\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u5408\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u53d1\u5c55\u533a\u57df\u3001\u6062\u590d\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u534a\u5f84\u7684\u7406\u60f3\u6a21\u578b\u9610\u91ca\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Zhou, Yufeng, and Yanluan Lin. “A toy model for the global annual number of tropical cyclones.” Earth’s Future<\/em> 12.11 (2024): e2024EF004839.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u9ad8\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u4f1a\u4f7f\u957f\u671f\u70ed\u6d6a\u6025\u5267\u589e\u52a0\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u505c\u7535\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u53d6\u6c14\u5019\u9002\u5e94\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6218\u7565\u6027\u5730\u4e0b\u5316\u914d\u7535\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u5f00\u53d1\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6cbf\u6d77\u7535\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5f39\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Feng, Kairui, Min Ouyang, and Ning Lin. “Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate.” Nature communications<\/em> 13.1 (2022): 4421.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u5929\u6c14\u7cfb\u7edf\u9ad8\u5ea6\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u76f8\u5e72\u6027\uff0c\u5bf9\u5c40\u90e8\u6076\u52a3\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9a\u91cf\u8868\u5f81\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u79f0\u4e3a\u71b5\u573a\u5206\u89e3 \uff08EFD\uff09 \u7684\u65b0\u578b\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5929\u6c14\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u80fd\u591f\u6709\u6548\u5730\u8868\u5f81\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u76f8\u5e72\u65f6\u7a7a\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Frank, L. R., Galinsky, V. L., Zhang, Z., & Ralph, F. M. (2024). Characterizing the dynamics of multi-scale global high impact weather events. Scientific Reports<\/em>, 14<\/em>(1), 18942.<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6d77\u6d0b\u6c14\u5019<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u7814\u7a76\u9996\u6b21\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u7ffb\u8f6c\u73af\u6d41\u5d29\u6e83\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u7269\u7406\u7684\u3001\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684AMOC\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u8b66\u793a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff1a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u5357\u90e8\u8fb9\u754cAMOC\u8bf1\u5bfc\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u6de1\u6c34\u8f93\u9001\u91cf\u3002\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5b9e\u8bc1\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u4eca\u7684AMOC\u6b63\u8d70\u5411\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
van Westen, R. M., Kliphuis, M., & Dijkstra, H. A. (2024). Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Science advances<\/em>, 10<\/em>(6), eadk1189.<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u519c\u4e1a\u6c14\u5019\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u62db\u52df\u5171\u521b\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u964d\u6c34\u548c\u98ce\u901f\u7b49\u73af\u5883\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u95f4\u63a5\u5730\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u4f5c\u7269\u7684\u751f\u957f\u5468\u671f\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u9891\u7387\u4ee5\u53ca\u75c5\u866b\u5bb3\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u4f5c\u7269\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u548c\u54c1\u8d28\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7efc\u8ff0\u4e86\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4ee5\u53ca\u519c\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u672c\u6587\u65e8\u5728\u4e3a\u4fdd\u969c\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u63d0\u4f9b\u79d1\u5b66\u4f9d\u636e\u548c\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u732e\u7efc\u8ff0\u4e86\u8ba4\u77e5\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u76f8\u5173\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u9886\u57df\u5305\u62ec\u98df\u7269\u3001\u6c34\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u548c\u4fdd\u9669\uff0c\u5e76\u7efc\u8ff0\u4e86\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0e\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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Guan, D., Wang, D., Hallegatte, S., Davis, S. J., Huo, J., Li, S., … & Gong, P. (2020). Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures. Nature human behaviour<\/em>, 4<\/em>(6), 577-587.<\/span><\/section>\n

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Sun, Y., Zhu, S., Wang, D., Duan, J., Lu, H., Yin, H., … & Guan, D. (2024). Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk. Nature<\/em>, 627<\/em>(8005), 797-804.<\/span><\/section>\n
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Collier, S. J., Elliott, R., & Lehtonen, T. K. (2021). Climate change and insurance. Economy and Society<\/em>, 50<\/em>(2), 158-172.<\/span><\/section>\n

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Evro, S., Oni, B. A., & Tomomewo, O. S. (2024). Carbon neutrality and hydrogen energy systems. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy<\/em>, 78<\/em>, 1449-1467.<\/span><\/section>\n
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Xu, J., Guan, Y., Oldfield, J., Guan, D., & Shan, Y. (2024). China carbon emission accounts 2020-2021. Applied Energy<\/em>, 360<\/em>, 122837.<\/span><\/section>\n
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Barrage, L., & Nordhaus, W. (2024). Policies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/em>, 121<\/em>(13), e2312030121.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6587\u7ae0\u5c06\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u7eb3\u5165\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u6280\u672f\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u590d\u6742\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u8de8\u8d8a\u4e2a\u4eba\u3001\u793e\u533a\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u3001\u51cf\u6392\u7ed3\u679c\u5177\u6709\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4e0d\u540c\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u8f68\u8ff9\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u51cf\u6392\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6c34\u5e73\u4ee5\u53ca\u78b3\u4e2d\u548c\u6280\u672f\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Moore, F. C., Lacasse, K., Mach, K. J., Shin, Y. A., Gross, L. J., & Beckage, B. (2022). Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate\u2013social system. Nature<\/em>, 603<\/em>(7899), 103-111.<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u751f\u6001-\u5730\u7403\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n

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\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u5c55<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u6587\u7ae0\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u901a\u7528\u7684\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u548c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u975e\u81ea\u4e3b\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u7528\u6765\u81ea\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u9a8c\u8bc1\u8be5\u6846\u67b6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1aPanahi, S., Kong, L. W., Moradi, M., Zhai, Z. M., Glaz, B., Haile, M., & Lai, Y. C. (2024). Machine learning prediction of tipping in complex dynamical systems. Physical Review Research<\/em>, 6<\/em>(4), 043194.<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1aMoinat, L., Kasparian, J., & Brunetti, M. (2024). Tipping detection using climate networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.18727<\/em>.<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u68ee\u6797\u9000\u5316\uff08Amazon forest dieback\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/em><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u68ee\u6797\u780d\u4f10\u548c\u706b\u707e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u96e8\u6797\u53d8\u5f97\u5e72\u71e5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Amigo, Ignacio. “When will the Amazon hit a tipping point?.” Nature<\/em> 578.7796 (2020): 505-508.<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u7a00\u6811\u8349\u539f\u548c\u65f1\u5730\u9000\u5316\uff08savanna and dryland degradation\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/em><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u975e\u6d32\u7a00\u6811\u8349\u539f\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5df2\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u6811\u6728\u5df2\u7ecf\u4fb5\u5165\u4e86\u4ee5\u524d\u4ee5\u8349\u672c\u690d\u7269\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u533a\u57df\u3002\u8be5\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u610f\u5473\u7740\u70ed\u5e26\u8349\u539f\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u5411\u68ee\u6797\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Gillson, Lindsey. “Evidence of a tipping point in a southern African savanna?.” Ecological complexity<\/em> 21 (2015): 78-86<\/span><\/section>\n
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Saco, Patricia M., et al. “Vegetation and soil degradation in drylands: non linear feedbacks and early warning signals.” Current Opinion in Environmental Science & Health<\/em> 5 (2018): 67-72.<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u6e56\u6cca\u5bcc\u8425\u517b\u5316\uff08lake eutrophication\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/em><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u6e56\u6cca\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u91cd\u5927\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u6216\u9884\u9632\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u53cd\u9988\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Hessen, Dag Olav, et al. “Lake ecosystem tipping points and climate feedbacks.” Earth System Dynamics Discussions<\/em> 2023 (2023): 1-34.<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u73ca\u745a\u7901\u548c\u7ea2\u6811\u6797\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff08coral reef and mangrove die-offs\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/em><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u8bba\u6587\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u73ca\u745a\u7901\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fd9\u4e9b\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u654f\u611f\u6027\u9608\u503c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Pearce-Kelly, Paul, et al. “Assessment of warm-water coral reef tipping point thresholds.” Earth System Dynamics Discussions<\/em> 2024 (2024): 1-31.<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u6e14\u4e1a\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\uff08the collapse of fisheries\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/em><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6587\u7ae0\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6355\u635e\u7684\u9c7c\u7fa4\u4e2d\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u6298\u53e0\u5206\u53c9\uff08fold bifurcations\uff09\u7684\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u9c7c\u7fa4\u79cd\u7fa4\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u591a\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u91cf\u80c1\u8feb\u6307\u6570\u4f5c\u56fe\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u72b6\u6001\u8f6c\u53d8\uff08shift mechanism\uff09\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u79cd\u7fa4\u8f6c\u53d8\u662f\u5bf9\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6355\u635e\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7efc\u5408\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u54cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Vasilakopoulos, Paraskevas, and C. Tara Marshall. “Resilience and tipping points of an exploited fish population over six decades.” Global change biology<\/em> 21.5 (2015): 1834-1847.<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6d77\u5cb8\u5e26\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u6e29\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u6d77\u6d0b\u751f\u7269\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/section>\n
Zhang, Wei-Ping, et al. “Elevated temperature as the dominant stressor on the harmful algal bloom-causing dinoflagellate Prorocentrum obtusidens in a future ocean scenario.” Science of The Total Environment<\/em> 952 (2024): 175946.<\/span><\/section>\n
Zhang, Wei-Ping, et al. “Divergent responses of an armored and an unarmored dinoflagellate to ocean acidification.” Harmful Algae<\/em> (2024): 102772.<\/span><\/section>\n
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Chen, Shi, et al. “Functional vertical connectivity of microbial communities in the ocean.” Science Advances<\/em> 10.21 (2024): eadj8184.<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u73af\u5883-\u5730\u7403\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n

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\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u9762\u5411\u672a\u6765\u6c7d\u8f66\u7535\u52a8\u5316\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u73af\u5883\u6548\u76ca\uff1f\u5229\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u8bc4\u4f30\u6d1b\u6749\u77f6\u673a\u52a8\u8f66\u6392\u653e\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u73af\u5883\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Yang, J., Wen, Y., Wang, Y., Zhang, S., Pinto, J. P., Pennington, E. A., … & Seinfeld, J. H. (2021). From COVID-19 to future electrification: Assessing traffic impacts on air quality by a machine-learning model. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/em>, 118<\/em>(26), e2102705118.<\/span><\/section>\n
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Hou, L., Dai, Q., Song, C., Liu, B., Guo, F., Dai, T., … & Feng, Y. (2022). Revealing drivers of haze pollution by explainable machine learning. Environmental Science & Technology Letters<\/em>, 9<\/em>(2), 112-119.<\/span><\/section>\n
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Song, C., Liu, B., Cheng, K., Cole, M. A., Dai, Q., Elliott, R. J., & Shi, Z. (2023). Attribution of air quality benefits to clean winter heating policies in China: combining machine learning with causal inference. Environmental Science & Technology<\/em>, 57<\/em>(46), 17707-17717.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u7f16\u8f91\u793e\u8bba\uff5c\u73af\u5883\u9886\u57df\u9876\u520aES&T\u7cfb\u5217\u4e2d\u5173\u4e8eAI\u548c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u8d4b\u80fd\u5927\u6c14\u5316\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7cbe\u9009\u8bba\u6587\u96c6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
Silva, S. J., Evans, M., Hou, L., Dai, Q., Song, C., Liu, B., … & Minet, L. (2023). Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Atmospheric Chemistry. Environ. Sci. Technol<\/em>, 57<\/em>(46), 18246-18258.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u8bed\uff1a\u5fae\u8f6f\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u5730\u7403\u5927\u6c14AI\u57fa\u7840\u5927\u6a21\u578bAurora \uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5168\u7403\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7a7a\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3\u7269\u6d53\u5ea6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u5feb\u66f4\u9ad8\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

Bodnar, Cristian, et al. “Aurora: A foundation model of the atmosphere.” arXiv preprint arXiv:2405.13063<\/em> (2024).<\/span><\/p>\n


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