{"id":57299,"date":"2025-03-24T18:26:57","date_gmt":"2025-03-24T10:26:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=57299"},"modified":"2025-03-24T18:26:57","modified_gmt":"2025-03-24T10:26:57","slug":"%e7%94%9f%e6%80%81%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%b4%e7%95%8c%e7%82%b9%e8%af%86%e5%88%ab%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95%e5%8f%8a%e5%85%b8%e5%9e%8b%e4%b8%b4%e7%95%8c%e7%82%b9%e4%bb%8b%e7%bb%8d%ef%bd%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=57299","title":{"rendered":"\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u8bc6\u522b\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u5178\u578b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff5c\u5468\u4e8c\u76f4\u64ad \u00b7 \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a"},"content":{"rendered":"
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    \u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff08Tipping Points\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

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    \u6591\u56fe\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/pattern.swarma.org\/study_group_issue\/878<\/span><\/p>\n


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    Berdugo, M., Delgado-Baquerizo, M., Soliveres, S., Hern\u00e1ndez-Clemente, R., Zhao, Y., Gait\u00e1n, J. J., Gross, N., Saiz, H., Maire, V., Lehman, A., Rillig, M. C., Sol\u00e9, R. V., & Maestre, F. T. (2020). Global ecosystem thresholds driven by aridity. Science, 367(6479), 787\u2013790. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.aay5958<\/span><\/p>\n

    Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esqu\u00edvel-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., Nobre, C. A., Oliveira, R. S., Borma, L. S., Nian, D., Boers, N., Hecht, S. B., ter Steege, H., Arieira, J., Lucas, I. L., \u2026 Hirota, M. (2024). Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature, 626(7999), 555\u2013564. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-023-06970-0<\/span><\/p>\n

    Hughes, T. P., Kerry, J. T., Baird, A. H., Connolly, S. R., Dietzel, A., Eakin, C. M., Heron, S. F., Hoey, A. S., Hoogenboom, M. O., Liu, G., McWilliam, M. J., Pears, R. J., Pratchett, M. S., Skirving, W. J., Stella, J. S., & Torda, G. (2018). Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages. Nature, 556(7702), 492\u2013496. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-018-0041-2<\/span><\/p>\n

    Moinat, L., Kasparian, J., & Brunetti, M. (2024). Tipping detection using climate networks. March 2022. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1063\/5.0230848<\/span><\/p>\n

    Panahi, S., Kong, L. W., Moradi, M., Zhai, Z. M., Glaz, B., Haile, M., & Lai, Y. C. (2024). Machine learning prediction of tipping in complex dynamical systems. Physical Review Research, 6(4), 43194. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1103\/PhysRevResearch.6.043194<\/span><\/p>\n

    Deb, S., Dutta, P.S. Deep learning at the forefront of detecting tipping points. Nat Mach Intell 6, 1433\u20131434 (2024). https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s42256-024-00957-w<\/span><\/p>\n

    Dakos, V., Matthews, B., Hendry, A.P. et al. Ecosystem tipping points in an evolving world. Nat Ecol Evol 3, 355\u2013362 (2019). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41559-019-0797-2<\/span><\/p>\n

    David I. Armstrong McKay et al., Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377, eabn7950 (2022). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.abn7950<\/span><\/p>\n

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    \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \u4e16\u754c\u6c14\u8c61\u7ec4\u7ec7\u300a2023\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u72b6\u51b5\u300b\u62a5\u544a\u786e\u8ba42023\u5e74\u662f\u6709\u89c2\u6d4b\u8bb0\u5f55\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u6696\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6b63\u5728\u4ee5\u9ad8\u6e29\u3001\u5e72\u65f1\u3001\u6d2a\u6c34\u3001\u91ce\u706b\u548c\u6c99\u5c18\u66b4\u7b49\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8bba\u575b\u300a2024\u5168\u7403\u98ce\u9669\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u5c06\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9996\u8981\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5730\u7403\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u8981\u7d20\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u8981\u7d20\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5173\u7cfb\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u7275\u4e00\u53d1\u800c\u52a8\u5168\u8eab\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u7406\u89e3\u5e76\u6709\u6548\u5e94\u5bf9\u6b63\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7b49\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e0e\u5730\u7403\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    \u4e3a\u4e86\u80fd\u591f\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5404\u8981\u7d20\u4e4b\u95f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0e\u6f14\u5316\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5e94\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u5957\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8054\u5408\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u8bb2\u5e2d\u6559\u6388\u9648\u5fb7\u4eae\u3001\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u6a0a\u4eac\u82b3\u3001\u4e1c\u839e\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7279\u8058\u526f\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u9648\u7231\u82b3\u3001\u5357\u5f00\u5927\u5b66\u526f\u6559\u6388\u6234\u542f\u7acb\u8001\u5e08\u548c\u7231\u5c14\u5170\u90fd\u67cf\u6797\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u73ed\u5d2d\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u8d77\u300c\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u300d\u7cfb\u5217\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/a>\uff0c\u5c06\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5927\u5bb6\u4ece\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u51fa\u53d1\u68b3\u7406\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u5e76\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u8bfb\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


    <\/strong><\/p>\n

    \"\u56fe\u7247\"<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

    \n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u89c1\uff1a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u65b0\u8303\u5f0f\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4ea4\u53c9\u524d\u6cbf | \u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u542f\u52a8<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n
    \u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/section>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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