{"id":58341,"date":"2025-04-09T20:42:23","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T12:42:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=58341"},"modified":"2025-04-09T20:42:23","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T12:42:23","slug":"prl%ef%bc%9a%e6%a0%bc%e6%9e%97%e5%87%bd%e6%95%b0%e7%94%a8%e4%ba%8e%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e6%a3%80%e6%b5%8b%e4%b8%8e%e5%bd%92%e5%9b%a0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=58341","title":{"rendered":"PRL\uff1a\u683c\u6797\u51fd\u6570\u7528\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e0e\u5f52\u56e0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aDetecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Green\u2019s Functions, and Nonlinear Fingerprints <\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1ahttps:\/\/journals.aps.org\/prl\/abstract\/10.1103\/PhysRevLett.133.244201<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u6700\u4f18\u6307\u7eb9\u6cd5<\/span>\uff08Optimal Fingerprinting Method, OFM\uff09<\/span>\u8d77\u6e90\u4e8e Hasselmann <\/span>(1979) <\/span>\u7684\u6700\u521d\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u7531 Hegerl et al. <\/span>(1996)<\/span>\uff0cAllen and Tett<\/span> (1999) <\/span>\u4ee5\u53ca Allen and Stott <\/span>(2003) <\/span>\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a IPCC \u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8bc4\u4f30\u4eba\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5f00\u59cb\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7528<\/span><\/span>\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6765\u89e3\u6790\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u501f\u9274\u4e86<\/span><\/span>\u4fe1\u53f7\u68c0\u6d4b\u7406\u8bba\uff08Signal Detection Theory\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u5c06\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u591a\u4e2a\u6c14\u5019\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u201c\u6307\u7eb9\u201d\u8fdb\u884c\u5339\u914d\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6700\u4f18\u6307\u7eb9\u6cd5\u81ea\u63d0\u51fa\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u548c\u4f18\u5316\u30021990 \u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u9996\u6b21\u5728 IPCC \u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u91cf\u5316\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span>\uff08Santer et al., 1996)<\/span>\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u5982\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6216\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5230\u4e86 2000 \u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4ec5\u9760\u5355\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u65e0\u6cd5\u51c6\u786e\u63cf\u8ff0\u771f\u5b9e\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u591a\u56e0\u5b50\u5f52\u56e0\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c06\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u3001\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u6392\u653e\uff09<\/span>\u4e0e\u81ea\u7136\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u706b\u5c71\u55b7\u53d1\u3001\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\uff09<\/span>\u5206\u5f00\u8ba8\u8bba<\/span> (Hegerl et al., 2007)<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u6700\u4f18\u6307\u7eb9\u6cd5\u5f00\u59cb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u533a\u57df\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6b27\u6d32\u3001\u5317\u7f8e\u548c\u4e9a\u6d32\u7684\u6c14\u6e29\u3001\u964d\u6c34\u548c\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790\u3002\u8fdb\u5165 2010 \u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5f00\u59cb\u5173\u6ce8\u6700\u4f18\u6307\u7eb9\u6cd5\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u5f15\u5165\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u65ad\u3001\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u6a21\u62df\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u91cf\u5316\u7edf\u8ba1\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790\u66f4\u52a0\u7cbe\u7ec6\u5316<\/span> (Ribes et al., 2017)<\/span>\u30022021 \u5e74\uff0cKlaus Hasselmann \u548c Syukuro Manabe \u56e0\u5176\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u5efa\u6a21\u4e0e\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u8363\u83b7\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6210\u5c31\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u786e\u7acb\u4e86\u6700\u4f18\u6307\u7eb9\u6cd5\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\u4e0e\u5c40\u9650\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n


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\u5f53\u524d\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ecd\u7136\u662f<\/span><\/span>\u6700\u4f18\u6307\u7eb9\u6cd5\uff08Optimal Fingerprinting Method, OFM\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u601d\u8def\u662f\u5c06\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u62c6\u89e3\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u5f3a\u8feb\u6307\u7eb9\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u7ec4\u5408\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/section>\n


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\u5176\u4e2d\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n