{"id":60072,"date":"2025-05-26T22:54:18","date_gmt":"2025-05-26T14:54:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=60072"},"modified":"2025-05-26T22:54:18","modified_gmt":"2025-05-26T14:54:18","slug":"%e6%9e%81%e7%ab%af%e5%a4%a9%e6%b0%94%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e7%9a%84%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95%e4%b8%8e%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=60072","title":{"rendered":"\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n

\u5bfc\u8bed<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n

\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u6c14\u8c61\u3001\u6c34\u6587\u548c\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u707e\u5bb3\uff0c\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6784\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u5728\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u9891\u7387\u3001\u5f3a\u5ea6\u548c\u5371\u5bb3\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u52302030\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5c06\u6709\u7ea64\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u6570\u4ebf\u4eba\u9762\u4e34\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u9884\u8b66\u548c\u707e\u5bb3\u7ba1\u7406\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u672c\u6587\u9996\u5148\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u76ee\u524d\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u4e0e\u5c40\u9650\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\uff1a<\/span>\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6a21\u62df\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60<\/span>
<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\"\u56fe\u7247\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

Z\u4e28\u4f5c\u8005<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9648\u7231\u82b3\u4e28\u5ba1\u6821<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u4e00\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u6307\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u7a7a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3001\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u6c14\u5019\u72b6\u6001\u5177\u6709\u663e\u8457\u5f02\u5e38\u6027\u3001\u6982\u7387\u6781\u4f4e\u4f46\u7834\u574f\u6027\u6781\u5f3a\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u3001\u5bd2\u6f6e\u3001\u66b4\u96e8\u3001\u5e72\u65f1\u3001\u53f0\u98ce\u3001\u66b4\u96ea\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u98ce\u66b4\u3001\u51b0\u96f9\u548c\u70ed\u6d6a\u7b49\u3002\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f4d\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u91cf\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\uff0c\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u53ef\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u8d85\u51fa\u7279\u5b9a\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u503c[1]\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6210\u56e0\u590d\u6742\u591a\u6837\uff0c\u662f\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6c14\u5019\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3001\u5c40\u5730\u5730\u5f62\u6761\u4ef6\u3001\u4e0b\u57ab\u9762\u7279\u5f81\u53ca\u4eba\u4e3a\u56e0\u7d20\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4ece\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e38\u4e0e\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u5f02\u5e38\u3001\u6d77\u6c14\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3001\u5b63\u98ce\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u9065\u76f8\u5173\u73b0\u8c61\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u4e8b\u4ef6\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u591a\u5730\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u3001\u5e72\u65f1\u548c\u70ed\u6d6a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u663e\u8457\u589e\u9ad8[1]\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u9646\u9762\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3001\u5c40\u5730\u5730\u5f62\u7b49\u4e5f\u4f1a\u8c03\u8282\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55[2-3]\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u56fe1. \u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6709\u5229\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u72b6\u6001\u3001\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3001\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u4ee5\u53ca\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff08\u566a\u58f0\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u56e0\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u51b5\u800c\u5f02\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u6d41\u98ce\u66b4\u7b49\u77ed\u671f\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u84dd\u8272\uff09\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u901a\u5e38\u4e0e\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u800c\u70ed\u6d6a\u6216\u5e72\u65f1\u7b49\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u8f83\u957f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u7ea2\u8272\uff09\u901a\u5e38\u6d89\u53ca\u571f\u58e4\u6c34\u5206-\u5927\u6c14\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7b49\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u8f83\u6696\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u4f1a\u589e\u5f3a\u5bf9\u6d41\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u8868\u9762\u84b8\u53d1\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u653e\u5927\u70ed\u6d6a\u548c\u5e72\u65f1\u3002(Sillmann et al., 2017)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u53d8\u7387\u4f53\u73b0\uff0c\u4e5f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u53d7\u5230\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5176\u9891\u7387\u3001\u5f3a\u5ea6\u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u663e\u8457\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u201c\u589e\u591a\u3001\u589e\u5f3a\u3001\u52a0\u5267\u201d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a<\/span>\uff08IPCC\uff09<\/span>\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u591a\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u81ea20\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u540e\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u9891\u7387\u663e\u8457\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u6781\u7aef\u4f4e\u6e29\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u9891\u7387\u5219\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u5448\u73b0\u589e\u5f3a\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5e72\u65f1\u548c\u70ed\u6d6a\u7b49\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u8303\u56f4\u4e5f\u5728\u6269\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5bf9\u81ea\u7136\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u9020\u6210\u7834\u574f\uff0c\u66f4\u5bf9\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u3001\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u201c\u590d\u5408\u6027\u201d\u7279\u5f81\u4e5f\u65e5\u76ca\u51f8\u663e\uff0c\u8fd9\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u707e\u5bb3\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u96be\u5ea6[3]\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u673a\u5236\u3001\u6f14\u53d8\u89c4\u5f8b\u53ca\u5176\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4e5f\u5bf9\u707e\u5bb3\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u56fe2. 2011-2013\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u4f1a\u516c\u62a5\u4e2d\u8003\u8651\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\uff08Stott et al., 2016\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\u4e0a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

2.1 \u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e0e\u76d1\u6d4b\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u9632\u707e\u51cf\u707e\u9886\u57df\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u5e76\u8ffd\u8e2a\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u7a7a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u80cc\u666f\u548c\u53d8\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u8fdb\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u3001\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u770b\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u8d56\u591a\u79cd\u89c2\u6d4b\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5730\u9762\u6c14\u8c61\u7ad9\u70b9\u89c2\u6d4b\u3001\u9065\u611f\u536b\u661f\u8d44\u6599\u3001\u518d\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u7c7b\u4e13\u4e1a\u76d1\u6d4b\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u5730\u9762\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u56e0\u5176\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u957f\u3001\u7cbe\u5ea6\u9ad8\uff0c\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u964d\u6c34\u3001\u98ce\u901f\u7b49\u6307\u6807\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u53ef\u66ff\u4ee3\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u9ad8\u5c71\u3001\u6781\u5730\u3001\u6c99\u6f20\u7b49\u6570\u636e\u7a00\u7f3a\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u66b4\u96e8\u3001\u98ce\u66b4\u3001\u51b0\u96ea\u8986\u76d6\u7b49\u7a7a\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\uff0c\u536b\u661f\u9065\u611f\u548c\u518d\u5206\u6790\u4ea7\u54c1\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u8865\u5145[4]\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u68c0\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4e3b\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u9608\u503c\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8bc6\u522b\u3002\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ee5\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5206\u4f4d\u6570<\/span>\uff08\u598290%\u300195%\u300199%\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u6781\u7aef\u9608\u503c[1]\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u53ef\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u5355\u65e5\u6216\u591a\u65e5\u7d2f\u8ba1\u964d\u6c34\u8d85\u8fc7\u5386\u53f2\u7279\u5b9a\u767e\u5206\u4f4d\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u533a\u57df\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u76f8\u5bf9\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u9762\u4e34\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u5b8c\u6574\u6027\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u9650\u5236\u3002\u7edd\u5bf9\u9608\u503c\u6cd5\u5219\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u6570\u503c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u754c\u5b9a\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6c14\u8c61\u9884\u62a5\u548c\u707e\u5bb3\u5e94\u6025\u4e2d\u5e94\u7528\u8f83\u591a\uff0c\u4fbf\u4e8e\u516c\u4f17\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6c14\u5019\u533a\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u9002\u7528\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0eAI\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u805a\u7c7b\u5206\u6790\u3001\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u667a\u80fd\u5316\u68c0\u6d4b\u6280\u672f\u9010\u6e10\u6d8c\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u590d\u6742\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e2d\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

2.2 \u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f52\u56e0\u662f\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u5206\u652f\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u786e\u5b9a\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u81ea\u7136\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u706b\u5c71\u6d3b\u52a8\u3001\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u53d8\u5316\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u6216\u6c14\u5019\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u6216\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5f53\u524d\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u5927\u7c7b\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u957f\u671f\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9891\u7387\u3001\u5f3a\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u5355\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u201c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f52\u56e0\u201d\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u7279\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7a0b\u5ea6[5]\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u707e\u5bb3\u65f6\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f52\u56e0\u53ef\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u56de\u5e94\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u201c\u662f\u5426\u56e0\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6240\u81f4\u201d\u7684\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc5\u901f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f53\u7cfb\u5927\u81f4\u53ef\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u7c7b\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u7c7b\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u4e0e\u957f\u671f\u6c14\u5019\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ece\u4e2d\u63a8\u65ad\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bf9\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u65b9\u6cd5\u64cd\u4f5c\u7b80\u4fbf\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u6027\u5f3a\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u5b8c\u6574\u6027\u3001\u5e8f\u5217\u957f\u5ea6\u8981\u6c42\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e14\u96be\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u89e3\u91ca\u7269\u7406\u673a\u5236\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7c7b\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u63a7\u5236\u6a21\u62df\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u8fd0\u884c\u5305\u542b\u4e0e\u4e0d\u5305\u542b\u4eba\u4e3a\u5f3a\u8feb<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u3001\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u6392\u653e\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u4e24\u7ec4\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f3a\u8c03\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\uff0c\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u5f52\u56e0\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\u7c7b\u662f\u7ed3\u5408\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0e\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u201c\u591a\u65b9\u6cd5\u96c6\u6210\u201d\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u591a\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u591a\u6570\u636e\u3001\u591a\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u5f52\u56e0\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u91cf\u5316\u6c34\u5e73[6]\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790\u4e5f\u9762\u4e34\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6311\u6218\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u5bf9\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u80fd\u529b\u5b58\u5728\u5c40\u9650\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u533a\u57df\u5c3a\u5ea6\u3001\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6c14\u5019\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8f83\u5927\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5b9a\u4e49\u3001\u5206\u6790\u533a\u57df\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u7a97\u53e3\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5f52\u56e0\u7ed3\u679c\u9020\u6210\u5f71\u54cd[5]\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

2.3 \u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\u65e8\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u3001\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\u3001\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6f14\u53d8\u7b49\u8fdb\u884c\u79d1\u5b66\u9884\u4f30\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u7406\u89e3\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7269\u7406\u673a\u5236\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u66f4\u4e3a\u9632\u707e\u51cf\u707e\u3001\u5e94\u6025\u54cd\u5e94\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u6258\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08Climate Models\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Numerical Weather Prediction Models\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u533a\u57df\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u62df\u4e0d\u540c\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u3001\u6d77\u6c14\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3001\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u7b49\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u3001\u5e72\u65f1\u3001\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u7b49\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u9ad8\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u9891\u7387\u548c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5c06\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5728\u591a\u6570\u5730\u533a\u4e5f\u5448\u73b0\u589e\u5f3a\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u6a21\u578b\u5219\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u77ed\u671f<\/span>\uff08\u5c0f\u65f6\u81f3\u5468\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff09<\/span>\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u9884\u62a5\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6a21\u5f0f\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u548c\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u73b0\u4ee3\u6570\u503c\u9884\u62a5\u5df2\u80fd\u8f83\u4e3a\u51c6\u786e\u6a21\u62df\u53f0\u98ce\u8def\u5f84\u3001\u66b4\u96e8\u5206\u5e03\u3001\u5f3a\u5bf9\u6d41\u5929\u6c14\u7b49\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7cbe\u786e\u9884\u62a5\u4ecd\u9762\u4e34\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u590d\u6742\u5730\u5f62\u3001\u5c40\u5730\u5bf9\u6d41\u548c\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7b49\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u4ecd\u6709\u9650[1,5]\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9664\u4f20\u7edf\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u5916\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60<\/span>\uff08Machine Learning, ML\uff09<\/span>\u4e0e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60<\/span>\uff08Deep Learning, DL\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6a21\u62df\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u5feb\u901f\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u3001\u518d\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u548c\u6a21\u5f0f\u8f93\u51fa\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u3001\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u77ed\u65f6\u4e34\u8fd1\u9884\u62a5\u6216\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u8f93\u51fa\u8fdb\u884c\u540e\u5904\u7406\u4fee\u6b63\u3002\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u501f\u52a9\u590d\u6742\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u5377\u79ef\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u5faa\u73af\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u4ece\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u591a\u6e90\u5f02\u6784\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u81ea\u52a8\u63d0\u53d6\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u5728\u6a21\u5f0f\u7cbe\u7ec6\u5316\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u6316\u6398\u3001\u6a21\u5f0f\u964d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u8def\u5f84\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\u91cd\u5efa\u7b49\u4efb\u52a1[7]\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u56fe3. \u4f7f\u7528AI\u8fdb\u884c\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff08\u5e72\u65f1\u3001\u70ed\u6d6a\u3001\u91ce\u706b\u548c\u6d2a\u6c34\uff09\u3002\uff08Camps-Valls et al., 2025\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1-\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u964d\u5c3a\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling\uff09<\/span>\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6a21\u62df\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7ed3\u5408\u7edf\u8ba1\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5c06\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u7c97\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u8f93\u51fa\u7ec6\u5316\u4e3a\u533a\u57df\u6216\u5c40\u5730\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u5c0f\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6c14\u5019\u4e2d\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9664\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b<\/span>\uff08Probabilistic Forecasting\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u96c6\u5408\u9884\u62a5<\/span>\uff08Ensemble Forecasting\uff09<\/span>\u4e5f\u9010\u6e10\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u89c6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u591a\u6b21\u8fd0\u884c\u4e0d\u540c\u521d\u503c\u6216\u53c2\u6570\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8f93\u51fa\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u6216\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u4e3a\u51b3\u7b56\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u8bc6\u522b\u548c\u5e94\u6025\u54cd\u5e94\u4e2d\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u6027\u4fe1\u606f\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5e73\u8861\u9632\u707e\u6295\u5165\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

2.4 \u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\u65e8\u5728\u91cf\u5316\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u635f\u5bb3\uff0c\u4e3a\u707e\u5bb3\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u63aa\u65bd\u63d0\u4f9b\u79d1\u5b66\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u9891\u7387\u3001\u5f3a\u5ea6\u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5316\u3001\u7efc\u5408\u5316\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u9700\u6c42\u4e5f\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\u901a\u5e38\u91c7\u7528\u201c\u98ce\u9669=\u5371\u9669\u6027\u00d7\u66b4\u9732\u6027\u00d7\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u201d\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u5371\u9669\u6027\u6307\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u548c\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u66b4\u9732\u6027\u53cd\u6620\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u5219\u8861\u91cf\u66b4\u9732\u5bf9\u8c61\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u7684\u6297\u51b2\u51fb\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u636e\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7edf\u8ba1\u3001\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5206\u5e03\u7b49\u591a\u6e90\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u6574\u5408\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u5bf9\u533a\u57df\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u5316\u3001\u7a7a\u95f4\u5316\u8868\u8fbe[1,8-9]\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\u9010\u6e10\u4ece\u9759\u6001\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u5411\u52a8\u6001\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u9664\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u3001\u5730\u7406\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u6790\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u60c5\u666f\u6a21\u62df\u3001\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u5206\u6790\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u591a\u60c5\u666f\u3001\u591a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u6a21\u62df\u6280\u672f\u5f97\u5230\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u597d\u6355\u6349\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u4e09\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

3.1 \u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\u3001\u5f52\u56e0\u3001\u6a21\u62df\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e2d\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63ed\u793a\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7279\u5f81\u3001\u53d8\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e3a\u540e\u7eed\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5efa\u6a21\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u7528\u63d0\u4f9b\u91cd\u8981\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6781\u503c\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Extreme Value Theory, EVT\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6700\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u62ec\u5e7f\u4e49\u6781\u503c\u5206\u5e03<\/span>\uff08Generalized Extreme Value Distribution, GEV\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5e7f\u4e49\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u5206\u5e03<\/span>\uff08Generalized Pareto Distribution, GPD\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u53ef\u5206\u522b\u7528\u4e8e\u5757\u6781\u503c<\/span>\uff08block maxima\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u8d85\u9608\u503c\uff08peak over threshold, POT\uff09\u5206\u6790[4,10]\u3002EVT\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u6982\u7387\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u91cd\u73b0\u671f\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u503c\u5206\u5e03\u548c\u8d85\u9608\u503c\u6982\u7387\u3002\u901a\u8fc7EVT\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u201c50\u5e74\u4e00\u9047\u201d\u201c100\u5e74\u4e00\u9047\u201d\u7b49\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3001\u9632\u707e\u51cf\u707e\u63d0\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u5b50\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u591a\u5143\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u3001\u5e7f\u4e49\u52a0\u6027\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Generalized Additive Model, GAM\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a2\u7a76\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0e\u6d77\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001ENSO\u6307\u6570\u3001\u5317\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6d9b\u52a8<\/span>\uff08NAO\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6c14\u5019\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5173\u8054\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u5f3a\u8c03\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u5206\u6790\u63d0\u4f9b\u521d\u6b65\u7ebf\u7d22\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6846\u67b6\u901a\u8fc7\u5f15\u5165\u5148\u9a8c\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e0e\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u5316\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u53ef\u91cf\u5316\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4e5f\u88ab\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u6570\u636e\u6709\u9650\u3001\u6837\u672c\u7a00\u7f3a\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u5148\u9a8c\u5206\u5e03\u501f\u529b\u5916\u90e8\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u63d0\u5347\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u5df2\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u70b9\u68c0\u6d4b\u3001\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f52\u56e0\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u9884\u6d4b\u7b49\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u901a\u8fc7\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5c42\u6b21\u6a21\u578b\u68c0\u6d4b\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u70b9\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9891\u7387\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\u6027\u53d8\u5316[1,11]\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

3.2 \u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u5927\u6c14\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u9646\u9762\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8fdb\u884c\u6570\u5b66\u63cf\u8ff0\u548c\u6570\u503c\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5bf9\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u3001\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u8d56\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u5f3a\u8c03\u4ece\u57fa\u672c\u7269\u7406\u5b9a\u5f8b\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u662f\u63cf\u8ff0\u5927\u6c14\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8d28\u91cf\u5b88\u6052\u65b9\u7a0b\u3001\u52a8\u91cf\u5b88\u6052\u65b9\u7a0b\u3001\u80fd\u91cf\u5b88\u6052\u65b9\u7a0b\u548c\u72b6\u6001\u65b9\u7a0b\u7b49\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u504f\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\u79bb\u6563\u5316\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408\u521d\u59cb\u573a\u548c\u8fb9\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\u6c42\u89e3\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u5168\u7403\u6216\u533a\u57df\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u6a21\u62df\u3002\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u533a\u57df\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u62df\u5168\u7403\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u6d77\u6c14\u8026\u5408\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3001\u8f90\u5c04\u5e73\u8861\u3001\u80fd\u91cf\u8f93\u9001\u7b49\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u81f3\u767e\u5e74\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0b\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u3001\u53f0\u98ce\u9891\u7387\u548c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7b49\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf[1,4]\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6a21\u5f0f\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u7684\u63d0\u5347\uff0cGCMs\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6a21\u62df\u4e2d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u5230\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\uff09<\/span>\u6a21\u62df\u4e0a\u66f4\u4e3a\u53ef\u9760\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u533a\u57df\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u5219\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u533a\u57df\u7684\u9ad8\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u597d\u6355\u6349\u590d\u6742\u5730\u5f62\u3001\u5c40\u5730\u73af\u6d41\u548c\u5c0f\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5bf9\u6d41\u5bf9\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u52a8\u6001\u964d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u533a\u57df\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u80cc\u666f\u4fe1\u606f\u5d4c\u5957\u5230\u66f4\u9ad8\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u7684\u533a\u57df\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5bf9\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7ec6\u81f4\u6a21\u62df\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u6a21\u5f0f\u901a\u8fc7\u5b9e\u65f6\u540c\u5316\u89c2\u6d4b\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5c0f\u65f6\u81f3\u6570\u5929\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c\u9ad8\u65f6\u6548\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u968f\u7740\u8d85\u7ea7\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u589e\u5f3a\u548c\u6a21\u5f0f\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e0d\u65ad\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u5df2\u80fd\u8f83\u4e3a\u51c6\u786e\u6a21\u62df\u53f0\u98ce\u8def\u5f84\u3001\u5f3a\u964d\u6c34\u5206\u5e03\u3001\u5f3a\u5bf9\u6d41\u5929\u6c14\u7b49\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c40\u5730\u7a81\u53d1\u6027\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0e\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\uff09<\/span>\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u5f0f\u8f93\u51fa\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u4fee\u6b63\u3001\u8bef\u5dee\u8ba2\u6b63\u3001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4f18\u5316\u7b49\u65b9\u5f0f\u63d0\u5347\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6a21\u62df\u80fd\u529b[2,7]\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5\u5bf9\u6a21\u5f0f\u8f93\u51fa\u8fdb\u884c\u504f\u5dee\u6821\u6b63\uff0c\u6216\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316\u6280\u672f\u589e\u5f3a\u6a21\u5f0f\u5bf9\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

3.3 \u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u968f\u7740\u6570\u636e\u91cf\u7684\u6025\u5267\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60<\/span>\uff08Machine Learning, ML\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60<\/span>\uff08Deep Learning, DL\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u9010\u6e10\u6210\u4e3a\u7ee7\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u6280\u672f\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u3001\u518d\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u8f93\u51fa\u7b49\u591a\u6e90\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u80fd\u591f\u53d1\u73b0\u590d\u6742\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\u3001\u6a21\u62df\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u5f52\u56e0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u68c0\u6d4b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u5df2\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u5f02\u5e38\u503c\u68c0\u6d4b\u7b49\u4efb\u52a1\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u652f\u6301\u5411\u91cf\u673a<\/span>\uff08SVM\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u968f\u673a\u68ee\u6797<\/span>\uff08RF\uff09<\/span>\u3001K\u8fd1\u90bb<\/span>\uff08KNN\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8f93\u5165\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u6c14\u8c61\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u3001\u5f3a\u5bf9\u6d41\u3001\u70ed\u6d6a\u7b49\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4f20\u7edf\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7279\u5b9a\u5206\u5e03\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7684\u9ad8\u7ef4\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u81ea\u52a8\u63d0\u53d6\u6709\u6548\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u68c0\u6d4b\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u548c\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u56e0\u5176\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u8868\u8fbe\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u65f6\u7a7a\u5efa\u6a21\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u5377\u79ef\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08CNN\uff09<\/span>\u5df2\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u3001\u5f3a\u98ce\u3001\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u7b49\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u591a\u5c42\u5377\u79ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u63d0\u53d6\u7a7a\u95f4\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u7cbe\u7ec6\u5316\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5faa\u73af\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08RNN\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u53ca\u5176\u53d8\u4f53<\/span>\uff08\u5982LSTM\u3001GRU\uff09<\/span>\u5219\u64c5\u957f\u5904\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u6a21\u62df\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6f14\u53d8\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408CNN\u548cRNN\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u56fe\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08GNN\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u65b0\u5174\u67b6\u6784\u4e5f\u9010\u6e10\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u66f4\u4f18\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u56fe4. \u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u7528\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5178\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a(a) CNN, (b) RNN\u3002(Salcedo-Sanz et al., 2024)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9664\u4e86\u76d1\u7763\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u65e0\u76d1\u7763\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u751f\u6210\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u805a\u7c7b\u5206\u6790\u3001\u81ea\u7f16\u7801\u5668\u3001\u751f\u6210\u5bf9\u6297\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08GAN\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u53d1\u73b0\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u8fdb\u884c\u6570\u636e\u589e\u5f3a\u3001\u5408\u6210\u865a\u62df\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u60c5\u666f\u6784\u5efa\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u8bad\u7ec3\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cGAN\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u751f\u6210\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u5f25\u8865\u89c2\u6d4b\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e2d\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6837\u672c\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u5347\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u201c\u5c3e\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201d\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e2d\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u4e5f\u88ab\u7528\u4f5c\u591a\u6e90\u6570\u636e\u878d\u5408\u4e0e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5efa\u6a21\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u6c14\u5019\u56e0\u5b50\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u3001\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u4fe1\u606f\u7b49\u591a\u7ef4\u6570\u636e\u8f93\u5165\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u80fd\u591f\u6784\u5efa\u7efc\u5408\u98ce\u9669\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u91cf\u5316\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u98ce\u9669\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6a21\u578b\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5feb\u901f\u9002\u5e94\u4e0d\u540c\u533a\u57df\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u5de8\u5927\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u6311\u6218\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u201c\u9ed1\u7bb1\u6027\u201d\u95ee\u9898\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u63ed\u793a\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u7269\u7406\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u201c\u5c3e\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201d\uff0c\u6837\u672c\u6570\u91cf\u7a00\u5c11\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u4e0e\u7279\u5f81\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5728\u6570\u636e\u504f\u5dee\u3001\u89c2\u6d4b\u7f3a\u5931\u7b49\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u9884\u6d4b\u504f\u8bef\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86 \u201c\u7269\u7406\u5f15\u5bfc\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u201d<\/span>\uff08Physics-informed Machine Learning\uff09<\/span><\/span>\u3001<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u201c\u6df7\u5408\u5efa\u6a21\u201d<\/span>\uff08Hybrid Modeling\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u7269\u7406\u5f15\u5bfc\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u7269\u7406\u7ea6\u675f\u5d4c\u5165\u635f\u5931\u51fd\u6570\u6216\u6a21\u578b\u67b6\u6784\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u4e0e\u7269\u7406\u673a\u5236\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u63d0\u5347\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7269\u7406\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u4e0e\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u3002\u6df7\u5408\u5efa\u6a21\u5219\u5c06\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u8f93\u51fa\u4f5c\u4e3a\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bef\u5dee\u6821\u6b63\u3001\u4e0b\u6e38\u53d8\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4f18\u5316\u7b49\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u517c\u987e\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u4e0e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u56db\u3001\u603b\u7ed3<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u7cfb\u7edf\u6784\u6210\u65e5\u76ca\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u63a8\u52a8\u5176\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u6301\u7eed\u6df1\u5165\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7cfb\u7edf\u68b3\u7406\u4e86\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7a81\u51fa\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u878d\u5408\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u672a\u6765\u968f\u7740\u9ad8\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4ee5\u53ca\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3001\u673a\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u6c34\u5e73\u6709\u671b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u6784\u5efa\u7efc\u5408\u6027\u3001\u667a\u80fd\u5316\u3001\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5c06\u662f\u5b9e\u73b0\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7cbe\u7ec6\u5316\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Kafi, K.M., Ponrahono, Z. (2024). Advances in weather and climate extreme studies: a systematic comparative review. <\/span><\/span>Discov Geosci<\/span><\/span><\/em>2<\/span><\/span><\/strong>, 66.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Stott, P.A., Christidis, N., Otto, F.E.L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J.-P., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P. and Zwiers, F.W. (2016).  Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events. WIREs Clim Change, 7: 23-41.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Walsh, J.E., Ballinger, T.J., Euskirchen, E.S., Hanna, E., M\u00e5rd, J., Overland, J.E., et al., (2020). Extreme weather and climate events in northern areas: a review. Earth Sci. Rev. 209, 103324.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Zhai, P., Zhou, B. & Chen, Y. (2018). A Review of Climate Change Attribution Studies. <\/span><\/span>J Meteorol Res<\/span><\/span><\/em>32<\/span><\/span><\/strong>, 671\u2013692.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Salcedo-Sanz, S., P\u00e9rez-Aracil, J., Ascenso, G., Del Ser, J., Casillas-P\u00e9rez, D., Kadow, C., … & Castelletti, A. (2024). Analysis, characterization, prediction, and attribution of extreme atmospheric events with machine learning and deep learning techniques: a review. <\/span><\/span>Theoretical and Applied Climatology<\/span><\/span><\/em>, <\/span><\/span>155<\/span><\/span><\/em>(1), 1-44.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Sura, P., (2011). A general perspective of extreme events in weather and climate. Atmos Res. 101 (1\u20132), 1\u201321.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Chu, P.S., Zhao, X., 2011. Bayesian analysis for extreme climatic events: a review. Atmos. Res. 102 (3), 243\u2013262.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Sillmann, J., Thorarinsdottir, T., Keenlyside, N., Schaller, N., Alexander, L.V., Hegerl, G., Seneviratne, S.I., Vautard, R., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F.W., (2017). Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: challenges and opportunities. Weather Clim. Extrem. 18, 65\u201374.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Camps-Valls, G., Fern\u00e1ndez-Torres, M\u00c1., Cohrs, KH. <\/span><\/span>et al.<\/span><\/span><\/em> (2025). Artificial intelligence for modeling and understanding extreme weather and climate events. <\/span><\/span>Nat Commun<\/span><\/span><\/em>16<\/span><\/span><\/strong>, 1919.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Simona Meiler et al., (2025). Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates. Sci. Adv. 11, eadn4607.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/section>\n
-\u76f4\u64ad\u9884\u544a-<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e16\u754c\u6c14\u8c61\u7ec4\u7ec7\u300a2023\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u72b6\u51b5\u300b\u62a5\u544a\u786e\u8ba42023\u5e74\u662f\u6709\u89c2\u6d4b\u8bb0\u5f55\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u6696\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6b63\u5728\u4ee5\u9ad8\u6e29\u3001\u5e72\u65f1\u3001\u6d2a\u6c34\u3001\u91ce\u706b\u548c\u6c99\u5c18\u66b4\u7b49\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8bba\u575b\u300a2024\u5168\u7403\u98ce\u9669\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u5c06\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9996\u8981\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5730\u7403\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u8981\u7d20\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u8981\u7d20\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5173\u7cfb\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u7275\u4e00\u53d1\u800c\u52a8\u5168\u8eab\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u7406\u89e3\u5e76\u6709\u6548\u5e94\u5bf9\u6b63\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7b49\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e0e\u5730\u7403\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\uff1f<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u80fd\u591f\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5404\u8981\u7d20\u4e4b\u95f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0e\u6f14\u5316\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5e94\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u5957\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8054\u5408\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u8bb2\u5e2d\u6559\u6388\u9648\u5fb7\u4eae\u3001\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u6a0a\u4eac\u82b3\u3001\u4e1c\u839e\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7279\u8058\u526f\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u9648\u7231\u82b3\u3001\u5357\u5f00\u5927\u5b66\u526f\u6559\u6388\u6234\u542f\u7acb\u8001\u5e08\u548c\u7231\u5c14\u5170\u90fd\u67cf\u6797\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u73ed\u5d2d\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u8d77\u300c\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u300d\u7cfb\u5217\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/a>\uff0c\u5c06\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5927\u5bb6\u4ece\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u51fa\u53d1\u68b3\u7406\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u5e76\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u8bfb\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\u56fe\u7247\"<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n


<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u89c1\uff1a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u65b0\u8303\u5f0f\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4ea4\u53c9\u524d\u6cbf | \u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u542f\u52a8<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n


<\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
<\/strong><\/section>\n
1. Nature\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u653e\u5927\u672a\u6765\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6210\u672c<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
2. \u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5927\u8111\uff1f\u795e\u7ecf\u79d1\u5b66\u52a9\u529b\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
3. \u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u9065\u76f8\u5173\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u4e8b\u4ef6\u540c\u6b65\uff0c\u6d41\u6d6a\u5730\u7403\u79bb\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u8fdc\u5417\uff1f<\/span><\/a><\/span>
<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
<\/strong><\/section>\n
4. <\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u6e38\u620f\u5316\u79d1\u7814\u2014\u2014\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u7a81\u7834\u5185\u5377\u3001\u5171\u7814\u6d8c\u73b0<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/strong>5. <\/span><\/strong>\u63a2\u7d22\u8005\u8ba1\u5212 | \u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e82025\u5185\u5bb9\u56e2\u961f\u62db\u52df\uff08\u5168\u804c&\u517c\u804c\uff09<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

6. \u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u73a9\u8f6c\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u5171\u521b\u6591\u56fe\uff01\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u7ebf\u4e0b\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u62db\u52df<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5bfc\u8bed \u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u6c14\u8c61\u3001\u6c34\u6587\u548c\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u707e\u5bb3\uff0c\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6784\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u5728\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u9891\u7387\u3001\u5f3a\u5ea6\u548c\u5371\u5bb3\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u52302030\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5c06\u6709\u7ea64\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u6570\u4ebf\u4eba\u9762\u4e34\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u9884\u8b66\u548c\u707e\u5bb3\u7ba1\u7406\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u672c\u6587\u9996\u5148\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":60062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60072"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60072"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60072\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/60062"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60072"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=60072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}