{"id":6045,"date":"2017-04-07T01:00:00","date_gmt":"2017-04-06T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/swarma.org\/%swarma-paper%\/"},"modified":"2018-12-05T22:32:48","modified_gmt":"2018-12-05T14:32:48","slug":"%e3%80%90-%e6%b7%b1%e5%ba%a6-%e3%80%91%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e4%bc%a0%e6%9f%93%e5%8a%a8%e5%8a%9b%e5%ad%a6%ef%bc%9a%e9%98%88%e5%80%bc%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e5%8f%8a%e5%85%b6%e6%89%a9%e5%b1%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=6045","title":{"rendered":"\u3010 \u6df1\u5ea6 \u3011\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u67d3\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff1a\u9608\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u53ca\u5176\u6269\u5c55"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u9608\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5386\u53f2<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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  • \n

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  • \n

    \u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u8282\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u90a3\u4e9b\u03d5>1\/k\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u80fd\u5426\u5f15\u53d1\u5168\u5c40\u7ea7\u8054\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u5c31\u7b49\u4ef7\u4e8e\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u7684\uff08\u8ddf\u7cfb\u7edf\u5927\u5c0f\u76f8\u5f53\uff09\u8fde\u901a\u96c6\u56e2\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u96c6\u56e2\u5168\u7531\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u6240\u7ec4\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8be5\u96c6\u56e2\u4e2d\u7684\u4efb\u4e00\u8282\u70b9\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a1\u6001\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u7ee7\u800c\u5f15\u8d77\u96c6\u56e2\u4e2d\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u8282\u70b9\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a1\u6001\uff08\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8282\u70b9\u5747\u6ee1\u8db3\u03d5\u22641\/k\uff09\u3002\u8f6c\u6362\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u9759\u6001\u7ed3\u6784\u95ee\u9898\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u751f\u6210\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u89e3\u6790\u6c42\u89e3\uff0c\u56fe1\u663e\u793a\u7406\u8bba\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u62df\u57fa\u672c\u543b\u5408\uff08\u5176\u4e2d\u865a\u7ebf\u662f\u7406\u8bba\u89e3\u6790\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u70b9\u662f\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n

    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

    \u56fe1\uff1a\u9608\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u76f8\u56fe\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8eER\u968f\u673a\u7f51\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    (z,\u03d5)\u53c2\u6570\u7a7a\u95f4\u88ab\u5206\u9694\u4e3a\u4e24\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u5728\u865a\u7ebf\u5305\u56f4\u7684\u5185\u90e8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u5168\u5c40\u7ea7\u8054\u4f20\u64ad\u73b0\u8c61\uff1b\u800c\u5728\u865a\u7ebf\u5916\u90e8\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u5168\u5c40\u7ea7\u8054\u4f20\u64ad\u73b0\u8c61\u3002Watts\u79f0\u7531\u865a\u7ebf\u56f4\u6210\u7684\u533a\u57df\u4e3a\u201c\u7ea7\u8054\u7a97\u53e3\u201d\u3002\uff08\u56fe\u5f15\u81ea\u6587\u732e[1]\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u9608\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u7684<\/span><\/strong>\u65b0<\/span><\/strong>\u7a81\u7834<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    <\/strong>
    <\/p>\n

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    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

    \u56fe2\uff1a\u51e0\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u5728\u7ebf\u670d\u52a1\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u91c7\u7eb3\u5e74\u6700\u5927\u76f8\u5bf9\u589e\u957f\u7387<\/span><\/p>\n

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    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

    \u56fe3\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u53c2\u6570\u4e0b\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u7a97\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    (a)\u548c(b) r=0\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684p\u503c\u5bf9\u7ea7\u8054\u7a97\u53e3\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

    (a)\uff0c(c)\u548c(d) p=0\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684r\u503c\u5bf9\u7ea7\u8054\u7a97\u53e3\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

    \u56fe4\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u53c2\u6570\u4e0b1\u6001\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u5bc6\u5ea6\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u66f2\u7ebf<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u5176\u4e2dp=5\u00d7\u301610\u3017^(-4)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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    \u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5730\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e34\u754c\u503cr_c\u6765\u533a\u5206\u5feb\u901f\u4f20\u64ad\u4e0e\u6162\u901f\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u5373\u5f53r<r_c\u65f6\uff0c\u201c\u8bf1\u53d1\u201d\u673a\u5236\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u4f20\u64ad\uff1b\u800c\u5f53r>r_c\u65f6\uff0c\u81ea\u53d1\u8f6c\u53d8\u673a\u5236\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u53d8\u5f97\u7f13\u6162\u3002\u4ece\u56fe4\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8f6c\u53d8\u8fc7\u7a0b\u662f\u6781\u5176\u5e73\u7f13\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u786e\u5b9ar_c\u7684\u503c\uff1a\u4f8b\u5982\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u7a33\u6001\u540e\u521b\u65b0\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u968fr\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u03c1(t)\u6f14\u5316\u66f2\u7ebf\u7531\u51f9\u53d8\u51f8\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u53c8\u6216\u8005\u662f\u7a33\u6001\u65f6\u201c\u8bf1\u5bfc\u201d\u96c6\u56e2\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u968fr\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5173\u7cfb\u7b49[3]\u3002\u4ee5ER\u968f\u673a\u7f51\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f53\u53d6\u53c2\u6570z=7,\u03d5=0.2,p=0.0005,N=\u301610\u3017^4\u65f6\uff08N\u4e3a\u7f51\u7edc\u5927\u5c0f\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230r_c\u22480.74\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u514d\u75ab\u6001\u6bd4\u4f8br\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fd8\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e17\u6d41\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff1a\u5373\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u9608\u503cr_\uff0c\u5f53r>r_\u65f6\uff0c\u75310\u6001\u8282\u70b9\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u96c6\u56e2\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u652f\u79bb\u7834\u788e\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u96c6\u56e2\uff08\u56e0\u800c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b9e\u73b0\u5168\u5c40\u7ea7\u8054\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u901f\u5ea6\u7f13\u6162\uff09\u3002\u7531\u6e17\u6d41\u7406\u8bba\u53ef\u77e5\uff0cr_=1-1\/z=0.857\uff08\u5f53\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u4ee5\u6bd4\u4f8br\u968f\u673a\u5904\u5728\u514d\u75ab\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u5e73\u5747\u5ea6\u4e3az-zr\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u76f8\u53d8\u70b9\u5728z-zr=1\u5904\uff09\u3002r_c=0.74<r_\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5373\u4f7f\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u75310\u6001\u8282\u70b9\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u96c6\u56e2\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7f13\u6162\u7684\uff08\u5373\u7f13\u6162\u4f20\u64ad\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u7eaf\u7531\u7f51\u7edc\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u5316\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

    [1] D. J. Watts, A simple model of global cascades on random networks, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99, 5766 (2002).<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

    [2] M. Granovetter and R. Soong, Threshold models of diffusion and collective behavior, J. Math. Sociol 9, 165 (1983).<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

    [3] Z. Ruan, G. Iniguez, M. Karsai, and J. Kertesz, Kinetics of social contagion, Phys. Rev. Lett. 115, 218702 (2015).<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

    [4] M. Karsai, G. Iniguez, R. Kikas, K. Kaski and J. Kertesz, Local cascades induced global contagion: How heterogeneous thresholds, exogenous effects, and unconcerned behavior govern online adoption spreading. Sci. Rep. 6, 27178 (2016).<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

    \n

     <\/p>\n

    \n

    \"\u96c6\u667a\"
    <\/p>\n<\/section>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n

    \u96c6\u667aQQ\u7fa4\uff5c292641157
    \u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\uff5czhangqian@swarma.org
    \u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cwangting@swarma.org<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    \u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong>
    <\/h1>\n

    \u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \u82f1\u6587\u540d\uff1a Swarma Club \uff0c<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u6210\u7acb\u4e8e 2008 \u5e74 \uff0c <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ece\u4e8b\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u3001<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u4eab\u53d7\u79d1\u5b66\u4e50\u8da3\u7684\u63a2\u7d22\u8005\u7684\u56e2\u4f53 \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u529b\u56fe\u642d\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684<\/span><\/p>\n

     \u201c \u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240 \u201d\u3002<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u641c\u7d22\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n

    \"\u96c6\u667a\"
    <\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \u957f\u6309\u8bc6\u522b\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\uff0c\u5173\u6ce8\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\uff0c<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u79bb\u79d1\u5b66\u63a2\u7d22\u66f4\u8fd1\u4e00\u6b65\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \n

    \u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a \u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8 <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u6458\u8981\uff1a \u672c\u6587\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u4e00\u9608\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6839\u636e\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u5728\u7ebf\u670d\u52a1\u4ea7\u54c1\u91c7\u7eb3\u884c\u4e3a\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u9608\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u9608\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5f15\u5165\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6210\u529f\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u73b0\u5b9e\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002 \u4f5c\u8005\u7b80\u4ecb \u962e\u4e2d\u8fdc \u6d59\u6c5f\u5de5\u4e1a\u5927\u5b66\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u5b66\u9662\u8bb2\u5e08\u3002 2…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6046,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[22],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6045"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6045"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6045\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6060,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6045\/revisions\/6060"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6045"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=6045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}