{"id":61637,"date":"2025-07-04T17:06:01","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T09:06:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=61637"},"modified":"2025-07-04T17:06:01","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T09:06:01","slug":"%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%95%88%e5%ba%94%e5%ba%a6%e9%87%8f%ef%bd%9c%e9%9b%86%e6%99%ba%e7%99%be%e7%a7%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=61637","title":{"rendered":"\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\uff5c\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff08Causal Effect\uff09\u662f\u6307\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cfX\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cfY\u4e5f\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5c31\u662f\u91cf\u5316X\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9Y\u6709\u591a\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002 \u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u6307\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u539f\u56e0\uff09\u4e0e\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u7ed3\u679c\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0e\u88ab\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u8054\u7cfb\u548c\u5148\u540e\u987a\u5e8f\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u201c\u5438\u70df\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u80ba\u764c\u201d\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5373\u5438\u70df\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u3002 \u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5219\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0\u539f\u56e0\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6216\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5728\u6570\u91cf\u6216\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u8868\u8fbe\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u67d0\u9879\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u5438\u70df\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u60a3\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6bd4\u4e0d\u5438\u70df\u7684\u4eba\u9ad880%\uff0c\u8fd980%\u5c31\u662f\u5438\u70df\u5bf9\u60a3\u80ba\u764c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u91cf\u5316\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u3001\u66f4\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u4eba\u4eec\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u548c\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u660e\u786e\u539f\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f7f\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4ece\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/span>
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\u4e3a\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u68b3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6700\u65b0\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388\u3001\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u5f20\u6c5f\u8001\u5e08\u9886\u8854\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7cfb\u5217\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6301\u7eed\u5230\u300c\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7b2c\u516d\u5b63\u300d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bdd\u9898\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u63a8\u8350\u4f60\u52a0\u5165\u793e\u533a\uff01<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u201c\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u7cbe\u9009\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u671f\u4e13\u680f\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u4e3a\u5927\u5bb6\u63a8\u9001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u7684\u5f00\u6e90\u79d1\u5b66\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u5e0c\u671b\u6253\u9020\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u6700\u5168\u9762\u7684\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u3001\u70ed\u7231\u77e5\u8bc6\u6574\u7406\u548c\u5206\u4eab\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u52a0\u5165\uff0c\u6587\u672b\u53ef\u4ee5\u626b\u7801\u62a5\u540d\u52a0\u5165\u767e\u79d1\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\uff01<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u2191\u2191\u2191\u626b\u7801\u76f4\u8fbe\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u6761<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u8f6c\u79fb\u71b5\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u57fa\u5143<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5218\u6613\u660e <\/span><\/span><\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f20\u6c5f\u3001\u6f58\u6797\u8389\u3001\u67ef\u6797\u5cf0\u3001\u738b\u5fd7\u9e4f <\/span><\/span><\/span>| \u6574\u7406&\u5ba1\u6821<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n


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\u76ee\u5f55<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

1. \u5386\u53f2\u6e0a\u6e90<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

2. \u524d\u63d0\u5047\u8bbe<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

2.1\t\u53d8\u91cf\u5904\u4e8e\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c3a\u5ea6<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

2.2\t\u5171\u56e0\u539f\u7406<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

2.3\t\u72ec\u7acb\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

3. \u57fa\u4e8e\u7ef4\u7eb3\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

3.1\t\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

3.2\t\u8f6c\u79fb\u71b5<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

3.3\t\u538b\u7f29\u590d\u6742\u6027\u56e0\u679c<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

4. \u57fa\u4e8e\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

4.1\t\u4e2a\u4f53\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

4.2\t\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

4.3\t\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5. \u57fa\u4e8e\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5.1\t\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5.2\t\u5e72\u9884\u64cd\u4f5c<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5.3\t\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5206\u6790<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5.4\t\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7b49\u4ef7\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5.5\t\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8868\u8fbe<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5.6\t\u5176\u4ed6\u57fa\u4e8e\u6982\u7387\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5.6.1\tPatrick Suppes\u7684\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u56e0\u679c\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5.6.2\tEllery Eells\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u56e0\u679c\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5.6.3\tPatricia Cheng\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f52\u56e0\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

6. \u57fa\u4e8e\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

6.1\t\u5f62\u5f0f\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

6.2\t\u6709\u6548\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

6.3\t\u7ef4\u5ea6\u5e73\u5747\u7684EI<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

7. \u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u57fa\u5143<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

7.1\t\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

7.2\t\u56e0\u679c\u57fa\u5143\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

7.2.1\t\u5145\u5206\u6027\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

7.2.2\t\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

7.3\t\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u57fa\u5143\u8868\u793a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

7.4\t\u603b\u7ed3<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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1. \u5386\u53f2\u6e0a\u6e90<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


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John Locke\u5728\u4ed61690\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7406\u89e3\u8bba\u300b\u4e2d\u9996\u6b21\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u56e0\u548c\u679c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff1a\u628a\u4ea7\u751f\u89c2\u5ff5\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u53eb\u505a\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u628a\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u53eb\u505a\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u572818\u4e16\u7eaaDavid Hume\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5<\/span><\/span>[1]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e60\u60ef\u6027\u8054\u60f3\u3002\u4ed6\u5f3a\u8c03\u5224\u65ad\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4e09\u6761\u51c6\u5219\uff1a\u7a7a\u95f4\u90bb\u8fd1\u6027\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u3001\u6052\u5e38\u8fde\u7ed3\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

19\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u76ae\u5c14\u900a<\/span>\uff08Karl Pearson\uff09<\/span>\u4ece\u9ad8\u5c14\u987f<\/span>\uff08Francis Galton\uff09<\/span>\u90a3\u91cc\u5b66\u4f1a\u5e76\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u5efa\u7acb\u4e8b\u7269\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/span>[2]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6570\u503c<\/span>\uff08\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u7b80\u5355\u76f4\u89c2\u5730\u544a\u8bc9\u4eba\u4eec\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u7269<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u53d8\u91cf\uff09<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u5728\u53d8\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e0a\u7684\u5173\u8054\u7d27\u5bc6\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u662f\u671d\u7740\u76f8\u540c\u65b9\u5411\u53d8\u5316\u8fd8\u662f\u76f8\u53cd\u65b9\u5411\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u79cd\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u591a\u5927\u3002\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u8db3\u4ee5\u8bf4\u660e\u4e8b\u7269\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5728\u6570\u5b66\u4e2d\u5b9a\u4e49\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u53ea\u662f\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u4f8b\u3002\u968f\u7740\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u7684\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u4ee5\u53ca\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u88ab\u538b\u5236\u4e86\u5c06\u8fd1\u534a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u73b0\u4ee3\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b0\u66d9\u5149\u51fa\u73b0\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa20\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5176\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6770\u897f\u00b7\u5185\u66fc<\/span>\uff08Jery Neyman\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5185\u66fc\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c <\/span>(RCT)<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6307\u51fa\u4ece\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u548c\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u7684\u601d\u60f3<\/span><\/span>[3]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u6216\u4e8b\u7269\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u51b5<\/span>\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u505a\u4e0e\u4e0d\u505a\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u3001\u63a5\u53d7\u4e0d\u540c\u5904\u7406\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\u65f6\u90fd\u6709\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u5e38\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u5b9e\u9645\u53d1\u751f\u60c5\u51b5\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u6ca1\u53d1\u751f\u60c5\u51b5\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u63a8\u65ad\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u51b5\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u7528\u6ce2\u5170\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5f53\u65f6\u5e76\u672a\u5f15\u8d77\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u5185\u66fc\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u88ab\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u9c81\u5bbe<\/span> (DonaldRubin) <\/span>\u4e8e1972\u5e74\u518d\u6b21\u53d1\u73b0<\/span><\/span>[4]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u52a0\u4ee5\u4e30\u5bcc\u548c\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u7684\u201c\u9c81\u5bbe\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u6216\u79f0\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u201d\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u9c81\u5bbe\u4e5f\u9996\u6b21\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\u548c\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u514b\u83b1\u592b\u30fb\u683c\u5170\u6770<\/span>\uff08Clive W.J. Granger\uff09<\/span>\u4e8e 1969 \u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u57fa\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/span>[5]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cfX\u3001Y\uff0c\u82e5\u5728\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u53d8\u91cfX\u3001Y\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u5bf9\u53d8\u91cfY\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6548\u679c\u8981\u4f18\u4e8e\u53ea\u5355\u72ec\u7531Y\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u4fe1\u606f\u5bf9Y\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u5373\u53d8\u91cfX\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u4fe1\u606f\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cfY\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53d8\u91cfX\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u53d8\u91cfY\u7684\u683c\u5170\u6770\u539f\u56e0\uff0cX\u548cY\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u7cfb\u5c31\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Patrick Suppes\u57281970\u5e74\u7684\u8457\u4f5c<\/span><\/span>[6]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u4e2d\u9996\u6b21\u5c06\u6982\u7387\u5f15\u5165\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u5982\u679c\u53d8\u91cfX\u662f\u53d8\u91cfY\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u987b\u6ee1\u8db3X\u5148\u4e8eY<\/span>\uff08\u65f6\u5e8f\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u548cX\u80fd\u63d0\u5347Y\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u3002Suppes\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u4e3a\u540e\u7eed\u7814\u7a76\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u4e25\u683c\u533a\u5206\u5173\u8054\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u3002Eells \u57281991\u5e74\u7684\u8457\u4f5c<\/span><\/span>[7]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6982\u7387\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u9700\u7ed3\u5408\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6\u3002Patricia Cheng\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f52\u56e0\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Causal Attribution Theory\uff09<\/span><\/span>[8]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5e72\u6270\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5f97\u5230X\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u80cc\u666f\u56e0\u7d20\u65f6\u5bf9Y\u7684\u51c0\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6731\u8fea\u4e9a\u30fb\u73c0\u5c14<\/span>\uff08Judea Pearl\uff09<\/span>\u5728 1995 \u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Structural Causal Model\uff0cSCM\uff09<\/span><\/span>[9]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4ee5\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6e05\u6670\u63cf\u7ed8\u53d8\u91cf\u95f4\u56e0\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u8fdb\u884c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u63a8\u7406\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u5e2e\u52a9\u4eba\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u5206\u6790\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u3002\u73c0\u5c14\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u53c8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6<\/span><\/span>[10]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u3001\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u5173\u8054\u3001\u5e72\u9884\u3001\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u7ea7\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u66f4\u52a0\u7cbe\u786e\u548c\u5b9e\u7528\u3002\u6731\u8fea\u4e9a\u30fb\u73c0\u5c14\u901a\u8fc7\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08SCM\uff09<\/span>\u548cDo\u6f14\u7b97\u5c06\u6982\u7387\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316<\/span><\/span>[10]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u6df7\u6742\u504f\u501a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Giulio Tononi \u548c Olaf Sporns \u57282003\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f (EI)\u7684\u6982\u5ff5<\/span><\/span>[11]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\u7ee7\u627f\u4e86SCM\u5bf9\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\uff0c\u5b83\u901a\u8fc7\u5e72\u9884\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6765\u6392\u9664\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6bd4\u8f83\u5e72\u9884\u524d\u540e\u72b6\u6001\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u91cf\u5316\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5230\u4e862013\u5e74\uff0cGiulio Tononi\u7684\u5b66\u751fErik Hoel\u7b49\u4eba\u5c06\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u70bc\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u5ea6\u91cf\u9a6c\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/span>[12]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u7684EI\u4e3b\u8981\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u5177\u6709\u79bb\u6563\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u9a6c\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u94fe\u4e0a\uff0c\u5230\u4e862022\u5e74\uff0c\u5f20\u6c5f\u4e0e\u5218\u51ef\u5a01\u7ed3\u5408Erik Hoel\u7b49\u4eba\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u51e0\u4f55\u7406\u8bba\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86EI\u5728\u8fde\u7eed\u72b6\u6001\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u6620\u5c04\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u5f62\u5f0f<\/span><\/span>[13]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>[14]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>[15]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b83\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5b9e\u6570\u57df\u4e0a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03\u4e25\u683c\u8bb2\u662f\u5b9a\u4e49\u5728\u65e0\u7a77\u5927\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e0a\u7684\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u906d\u9047\u65e0\u7a77\u5927\uff0cEI\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e2d\u5c31\u4f1a\u5e26\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570<\/span><\/span>L<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u533a\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7c97\u7c92\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6bd4\u8f83EI\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u4fbf\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7ef4\u5ea6\u5e73\u5747EI\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u7ef4\u5ea6\u5e73\u5747EI\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u7684EI\uff0c\u5373Eff\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

2022\u5e74Erik hoel\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>[16]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u5404\u7c7b\u56e0\u679c\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u5145\u5206\u6027\u548c\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u540d\u4e3a\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u57fa\u5143<\/span>\uff08Causal Primitive\uff09<\/span>\u201d\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u57fa\u672c\u5c5e\u6027\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u4e0d\u518d\u9700\u8981\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fc5\u987b\u8fbe\u6210\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8bc6\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5c5e\u6027\u7ee7\u7eed\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u679c\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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2. \u524d\u63d0\u5047\u8bbe<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


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\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>[17]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u90fd\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u8bed\u8a00\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u91cf\u5316\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u624d\u80fd\u628a\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5ba2\u89c2\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u90fd\u662f\u4ece\u516c\u7406\u6216\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8bbe\u51fa\u53d1\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e5f\u6709\u7740\u5b83\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u548c\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>2.1 \u53d8\u91cf\u5904\u4e8e\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c3a\u5ea6<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4ece\u91cf\u5b50\u5230\u5b87\u5b99\uff0c\u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u5230\u5b8f\u89c2\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u91cf\u7ea7\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u89c6\u89d2\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u6307\u540c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0b\u4e0d\u540c\u73b0\u8c61\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5bf9\u4e8e\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u822c\u662f\u4ece\u5206\u5b50\u6c34\u5e73\u6216\u8005\u75c5\u83cc\u6c34\u5e73\u8003\u5bdf\u4e0e\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u8bf4\u75be\u75c5\u603b\u662f\u4e0e\u7269\u8d28\u7684\u91cf\u5b50\u884c\u4e3a\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5728\u540c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u7cfb\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u9053\u7406\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e5f\u662f\u5728\u540c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0b\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u8054\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>2.2 \u5171\u56e0\u539f\u7406<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u5171\u56e0\u539f\u7406<\/span> (common cause principle\uff0cCCP)<\/span>:\u5982\u679c\u4e24\u4e2a\u53ef\u89c2\u5bdf\u53d8\u91cfX\u548cY\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u662f\u5173\u8054\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u7ec4\u53d8\u91cfU<\/span> (\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662fX\u6216\u8005Y)<\/span>\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4ea7\u751f\u5171\u540c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6761\u4e5f\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u201c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u8054\u5173\u7cfb\u80cc\u540e\u90fd\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\uff0c\u5982\u201c\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\u9500\u91cf\u9ad8-\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\u9ad8\u201d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5728\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\u9500\u91cf\u9ad8\u548c\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\u9ad8\u5173\u8054\u7684\u80cc\u540e\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u6709\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5373\u6c14\u6e29\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5728\u8868\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u4e24\u4e2a\u6beb\u65e0\u74dc\u845b\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29\u5c31\u662f\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\u9500\u91cf\u548c\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5171\u540c\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5171\u56e0\u539f\u7406\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u662f\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u201d\u4ee5\u53ca\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u7b49\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u9690\u53d8\u91cf\u7406\u8bba\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u5177\u5907\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u5fc5\u7136\u5bfc\u81f4\u679c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bef\u5dee\u6216\u8005\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u662f\u7531\u672a\u77e5\u53d8\u91cf(\u9690\u53d8\u91cf)\u9020\u6210\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e5f\u9075\u5faa\u5171\u56e0\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u5171\u56e0\u539f\u7406\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>2.3 \u72ec\u7acb\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u72ec\u7acb\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236<\/span> (independent causal mechanism\uff0cICM)<\/span> :\u5b83\u662f\u6307\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u53d8\u91cfX\u5bfc\u81f4\u53d8\u91cfY\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53d8\u91cfZ\u5bfc\u81f4\u53d8\u91cfW\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u91cfXY\u548cZW\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u65e0\u8bbaXY\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u600e\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cdZW\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5177\u6709\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3001\u4e0d\u53d8\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u592a\u9633\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u4f1a\u5347\u8d77\u843d\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5c31\u5f88\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eca\u5929\u8def\u4e0a\u8f66\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u5347\u8d77\u843d\u4e0b\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u5c31\u53d8\u4e86\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cICM\u5141\u8bb8\u628a\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u770b\u4f5c\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u9700\u8981\u7684\u6837\u672c\u6570\u91cf\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u5efa\u6a21\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u533b\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u9879\u624b\u672f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e2a\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u4ed6\u60a3\u8005\u63a5\u53d7\u624b\u672f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u800c\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ec6\u5fc3\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u60f3\u5230\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u60a3\u8005\u5728\u770b\u5230\u522b\u7684\u624b\u672f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0d\u826f\u6548\u679c\u65f6\u60c5\u7eea\u4ea7\u751f\u6ce2\u52a8\u3001\u4ece\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u624b\u672f\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6240\u8003\u8651\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u8981\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u5373\u60c5\u7eea\u3002\u5728\u65b0\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u624b\u672f\u7684\u6548\u679c\u8fd8\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684 <\/span>(\u5f53\u7136\u4e0e\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u60c5\u7eea\u662f\u6709\u533a\u522b\u7684)<\/span>\u3002\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u624b\u672f\u6548\u679c\u5b8c\u5168\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u624b\u672f\u672c\u8eab\u3002\u8003\u8651\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u5219\u624b\u672f\u6548\u679c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u624b\u672f\u548c\u60c5\u7eea\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u53d7\u5916\u90e8\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e00\u9879\u6cbb\u7597\u63aa\u65bd\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u53ea\u548c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60a3\u8005\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u60a3\u8005\u4ee5\u53ca\u975e\u60a3\u8005\u90fd\u6ca1\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u65f6\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u6536\u96c6\u548c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60a3\u8005\u6709\u5173\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>
<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

3. <\/span>\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ef4\u7eb3\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u6613\u4e8e\u83b7\u53d6\u4e14\u6570\u91cf\u5e9e\u5927\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u63a8\u65ad\u67d0\u4e9b\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u5e72\u9884\u5b9e\u9a8c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f88\u56f0\u96be\u6216\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6b63\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/span>[18]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u662f\u6839\u636e\u8bfa\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u7ef4\u7eb3<\/span>\uff08Norbert Wiener\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u601d\u60f3<\/span><\/span>[19]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff1a\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bfc\u81f4\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u503c\u5e94\u8be5\u5305\u542b\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u4ec5\u5305\u542b\u5728<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8fc7\u53bb\u503c\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u201d\u3002\u8be5\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4ece\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u5ea6\u91cf\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u800c\u4f18\u96c5\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u4e09\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u9610\u8ff0\u6bcf\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

3.1 \u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c<\/span>\uff08Granger Causality\uff0cGC\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7edf\u8ba1\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u63a5\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ef4\u7eb3\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b83\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u7ef4\u7eb3 – \u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/span>[20]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002\u8981\u68c0\u67e5\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u5426\u683c\u5170\u6770\u5bfc\u81f4\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5efa\u6a21\u4e24\u4e2a\u5355\u72ec\u7684\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4ee5\u4f9b\u8003\u8651\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>\uff081\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\uff082\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

\u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>t<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u4efb\u610f\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\uff0c<\/span><\/span>a<\/span><\/span>\u03c4<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u3001<\/span><\/span>b<\/span><\/span>\u03c4<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u3001<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span>\u03c4<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u662f\u6ede\u540e<\/span><\/span>\u03c4<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u65f6\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u03b5<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u3001<\/span><\/span>\u03b5<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u9879\u3002\u5047\u8bbe<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u534f\u65b9\u5dee\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\uff0c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u5426\u5bfc\u81f4<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u65b9\u5dee\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\u6bd4\u6765\u5224\u65ad\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>\uff083\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5ea6\u91cf\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>F<\/span><\/span><\/span> – \u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7531\u65b9\u7a0b\uff081\uff09\u8868\u793a\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u65b9\u7a0b\uff082\uff09\u66f4\u9002\u5408<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>t<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48<\/span><\/span>v<\/span><\/span>a<\/span><\/span>r<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>\u03b5<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/sub>)<\/span><\/span><<\/span><\/span>v<\/span><\/span>a<\/span><\/span>r<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>\u03b5<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e14<\/span><\/span>F<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/sub>\u2192<\/span><\/span><\/sub>Y<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u5c06\u5927\u4e8e0\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u683c\u5170\u6770\u5bfc\u81f4<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u6982\u5ff5\u4f7f\u7528\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u901a\u7528\u6027\u8d28\u5bf9\u6f5c\u5728\u673a\u5236\u505a\u4e86\u6700\u5c0f\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7528\u5728\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u6570\u636e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5373\u5982\u679c<\/span><\/span>F<\/span><\/span>><\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5219\u5b58\u5728X\u5230Y\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4e14F\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u5373\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>3.2 \u8f6c\u79fb\u71b5<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u8f6c\u79fb\u71b5<\/span>\uff08Transfer Entropy\uff0cTE\uff09<\/span>\u91cf\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u8f6c\u79fb\u6982\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/span>[21]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002\u5b83\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5f53\u524d\u72b6\u6001<\/span><\/span>y<\/span><\/span>n<\/span><\/span><\/sub>+<\/span><\/span><\/sub>1<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u4e0e\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u72b6\u6001<\/span><\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u72ec\u7acb\u65f6\uff08\u5373\u5047\u8bbe\u5176\u5206\u5e03\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u800c\u4e0d\u662f<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\uff09\u9700\u8981\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\u7684\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc<\/span><\/span>k<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>l<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5206\u522b\u8868\u793a<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u72b6\u6001<\/span><\/span>y<\/span><\/span>n<\/span><\/span><\/sub>+<\/span><\/span><\/sub>1<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fc7\u53bb\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\uff0c<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>\uff084\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

\u5982\u679c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6240\u6709<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0a\u8ff0\u72b6\u6001\u6570\u91cf\u5c06\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002\u76f4\u89c2\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c<\/span><\/span>T<\/span><\/span>E<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/sub>\u2192<\/span><\/span><\/sub>Y<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u6355\u6349\u4e86\u4ece\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5230\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6d41\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c<\/span><\/span>T<\/span><\/span>E<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/sub>\u2192<\/span><\/span><\/sub>Y<\/span><\/span><\/sub>\u2260<\/span><\/span>T<\/span><\/span>E<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/sub>\u2192<\/span><\/span><\/sub>X<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>3.3 \u538b\u7f29\u590d\u6742\u6027\u56e0\u679c<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u50cfGC\u548cTE\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u5047\u8bbe\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u201c\u539f\u56e0\u201d\u548c\u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u6837\u672c\u5177\u6709\u5185\u5728\u7684\u53ef\u5206\u79bb\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ea\u80fd\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e4b\u68af\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5c42\u7ea7\u7684\u5173\u8054\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u5757<\/span>\uff08Chunks\uff0c\u6307\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u6570\u636e\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u5355\u4e2a\u6d4b\u91cf\u503c\u4e2d\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u56fa\u6709\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u91c7\u6837\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0d\u540c<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u6d4b\u91cf\u91c7\u96c6\u671f\u95f4\uff09<\/span>\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5173\u8054\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5ea6\u91cf\u662f\u4e0d\u5408\u9002\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u57ce\u5e02\u91cc\u67d0\u6761\u8857\u9053\u7684\u8f66\u6d41\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217 X\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u9644\u8fd1\u505c\u8f66\u573a\u7684\u7a7a\u4f4d\u6570\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217 Y\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5c31\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5047\u5982\u5148\u6709\u8f66\u6d41\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u8fd9\u4e2a \u201c\u539f\u56e0\u201d<\/span>\uff08X \u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u53d8\u5316\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u624d\u4f1a\u6709\u505c\u8f66\u573a\u7a7a\u4f4d\u51cf\u5c11\u8fd9\u4e2a \u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u201d<\/span>\uff08Y \u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u53d8\u5316\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8f66\u6d41\u91cf\u548c\u505c\u8f66\u573a\u7a7a\u4f4d\u6570\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u7edf\u8ba1\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u80fd\u5f88\u660e\u663e\u5730\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u6570\u636e\u91cc\u533a\u5206\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6837\u672c\u5177\u6709\u5185\u5728\u7684\u53ef\u5206\u79bb\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd8\u662f\u62ff\u521a\u624d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6d4b\u91cf\u8f66\u6d41\u91cf\u548c\u505c\u8f66\u573a\u7a7a\u4f4d\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\u4e0d\u5408\u9002\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57ce\u5e02\u4ea4\u901a\u72b6\u51b5\u5f88\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u521a\u597d\u5728\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u8fd9\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u6709\u5927\u578b\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bfc\u81f4\u5f88\u591a\u8f66\u8f86\u540c\u65f6\u5230\u8fbe\u548c\u505c\u653e\uff0c\u90a3\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u5757\u91cc\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d4b\u91cf\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u65e2\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u8f66\u6d41\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u8fd9\u4e2a \u201c\u539f\u56e0\u201d \u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u53c8\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u505c\u8f66\u573a\u7a7a\u4f4d\u51cf\u5c11\u8fd9\u4e2a \u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u201d \u7684\u4fe1\u606f \uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5c31\u91cd\u53e0\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\u5019\u4e5f\u5c31\u6ca1\u529e\u6cd5\u786e\u5b9a\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u8f66\u6d41\u91cf\u53d8\u5316\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u505c\u8f66\u573a\u7a7a\u4f4d\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u540c\u65f6\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u4e24\u8005\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u50cfGC\u548cTE\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4e0d\u5408\u9002\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u538b\u7f29\u590d\u6742\u6027\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08Compression Complexity Causality\uff0cCCC\uff09<\/span>\u662f2019\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/span>[22]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u505a\u5173\u8054\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u5982GC\u548cTE\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u505a\u7684\u53ef\u5206\u79bb\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u3002CCC\u901a\u8fc7\u5047\u60f3\u7684\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a\u5047\u8bbe<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bfc\u81f4<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u5c06<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u4fe1\u606f\u63d2\u5165<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5982\u4f55\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5f53\u65e0\u6cd5\u5bf9\u53d8\u91cf\u5b9e\u65bd\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u60f3\u7684\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u662f\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u80fd\u505a\u7684\u6700\u597d\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cCCC\u5c5e\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e4b\u68af\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\u7ea7<\/span>\uff08\u5e72\u9884\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728CCC\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u5757\u7684\u538b\u7f29\u590d\u6742\u6027\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u538b\u7f29\u96be\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08Effort to Compress\uff0cETC\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684<\/span><\/span>[23]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002ETC\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u57fa\u4e8e\u65e0\u635f\u538b\u7f29\u7b97\u6cd5<\/span>\uff08\u5982Lempel-Ziv-Welch, LZ77\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u5c31\u662f\u8d8a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u968f\u673a\u566a\u58f0\uff09<\/span>\u8d8a\u96be\u88ab\u538b\u7f29\uff0c\u6240\u9700\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u6b65\u9aa4<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u8fed\u4ee3\u6b21\u6570\uff09<\/span>\u8d8a\u591a\uff1b\u800c\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5e8f\u5217<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u5468\u671f\u6027\u4fe1\u53f7\uff09<\/span>\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u538b\u7f29\uff0c\u6240\u9700\u96be\u5ea6\u66f4\u5c0f\uff0cETC\u7684\u503c\u5c31\u662f\u538b\u7f29\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6240\u6709\u8fed\u4ee3\u6b65\u9aa4\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u6b21\u6570\u603b\u548c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u5c06CCC\u4ece<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4f30\u8ba1\u5230<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba1\u7b97<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span><\/sub>a<\/span><\/span><\/sub>s<\/span><\/span><\/sub>t<\/span><\/span><\/sub>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u2014\u2014\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5f53\u524d\u6570\u636e\u7a97\u53e3<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5728\u5176\u5386\u53f2\u4fe1\u606f<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span><\/sub>a<\/span><\/span><\/sub>s<\/span><\/span><\/sub>t<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0cCC\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u538b\u7f29\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002\u5c06\u5176\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span><\/sub>a<\/span><\/span><\/sub>s<\/span><\/span><\/sub>t<\/span><\/span><\/sub>,<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span><\/sub>a<\/span><\/span><\/sub>s<\/span><\/span><\/sub>t<\/span><\/span><\/sub>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u2014\u2014<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5728<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span><\/sub>a<\/span><\/span><\/sub>s<\/span><\/span><\/sub>t<\/span><\/span><\/sub>,<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span><\/sub>a<\/span><\/span><\/sub>s<\/span><\/span><\/sub>t<\/span><\/span><\/sub>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5171\u540c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\uff0c<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u5176\u4e2d\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u516c\u5f0f<\/span><\/span>5<\/span><\/span><\/b>\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u5355\u72ec\u7528<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4fe1\u606f<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span><\/sub>a<\/span><\/span><\/sub>s<\/span><\/span><\/sub>t<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u9884\u6d4b\u5f53\u524d\u7a97\u53e3<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u65f6\uff0c\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u538b\u7f29\u590d\u6742\u6027\u589e\u91cf\uff1b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u516c\u5f0f<\/span><\/span>6<\/span><\/span><\/b>\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u540c\u65f6\u7528<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4fe1\u606f\u9884\u6d4b<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u65f6\uff0c\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u538b\u7f29\u590d\u6742\u6027\u589e\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u516c\u5f0f<\/span><\/span>7<\/span><\/span><\/b>\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4fe1\u606f\u5bf9\u964d\u4f4e<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5f53\u524d\u6570\u636e\u7a97\u53e3\u0394Y\u538b\u7f29\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u957f\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u7a97\u53e3<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4ee5\u6b65\u957f<\/span><\/span>\u03b4<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6ed1\u52a8\uff0c\u4ece<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5230<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5e73\u5747CCC\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u603b\u7ed3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u52a8\u6001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6307\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u6f14\u5316\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u548c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5b9a\u6027\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u538b\u7f29\u590d\u6742\u6027\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u91cf\u5316\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6761\u4ef6\u538b\u7f29\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u5dee\u503c\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u6761\u4ef6\u538b\u7f29\u590d\u6742\u6027\u901a\u8fc7ETC\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>
<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

4. \u57fa\u4e8e\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u6307\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u548c\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u628a\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u8c61\u5728\u63a5\u53d7\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u5e72\u9884\u65f6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u672a\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u5185\u66fc<\/span>\uff08Jery Neyman\uff09<\/span>\u57281924\u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587<\/span><\/span>[3]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u4e2d\u9996\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u5229\u7528\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c<\/span>\uff08Randomized Controlled Trial\uff0cRCT\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u91cd\u590d\u62bd\u6837\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u89e3\u51b3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u65e0\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u89c2\u5bdf\u548c\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u9c81\u5bbe\u57281970\u5e74\u4ee3\u5b8c\u5584\u4e86\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u5e76\u7cfb\u7edf\u5316\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u9c81\u5bbe\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Rubin Causal Model, RCM\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5c06\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u601d\u60f3\u6cdb\u5316\u5230\u975e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u6570\u636e\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u5404\u53d8\u91cf\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>4.1 \u4e2a\u4f53\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\uff0c\u4e3a\u7b80\u5355\u8d77\u89c1\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u6240\u6709\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001 0 \u548c 1\uff0c\u5982\u7528 <\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span> \u8868\u793a\u662f\u5426\u670d\u836f\uff0c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span> \u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\uff0c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span> \u8868\u793a\u670d\u836f\uff0c\u5219 <\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span> \u8868\u793a\u4e2a\u4f53\u670d\u836f\u65f6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span> \u8868\u793a\u4e2a\u4f53\u670d\u836f\u800c\u75ca\u6108\u3002 <\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span> \u8868\u793a\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\u65f6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span> \u8868\u793a\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\u800c\u75ca\u6108\u3002 \u5b9e\u9645\u4e2d\u53ea\u80fd\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e2a\u4f53\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08Individual Causal Effect\uff0cICE\uff09<\/span>\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e24\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

ICE<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>\u2212<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u65e0\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u4e24\u8005\uff0cICE\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u53ef\u76f4\u63a5\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u5229\u7528\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c<\/span>\uff08Randomized Controlled Trial\uff0cRCT\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u91cd\u590d\u62bd\u6837\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>4.2 \u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

\u82e5<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\u7684\u671f\u671b\u75ca\u6108\u7387\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u670d\u836f\u7684\u671f\u671b\u75ca\u6108\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0c\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08Average Causal Effect\uff0cACE\uff09<\/span>\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bb0\u4f5c <\/span><\/span>ACE<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u2192<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span> \u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>4.3 \u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

\u5982\u679c\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u65e2\u6709\u75c5\u4eba\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u670d\u836f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u75c5\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u7406\u6307\u6807 <\/span>(\u8840\u538b\u3001\u809d\u810f\u7b49) <\/span>\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u5c5e\u6027<\/span> (\u6027\u522b\u3001\u5e74\u9f84\u7b49)<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u79f0\u4e3a\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u51b3\u5b9a\u75c5\u4eba\u7684\u75ca\u6108\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u75c5\u4eba\u7684\u75ca\u6108\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u5b58\u5728\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u96c6\u5408<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>{<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span><\/sub>,<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>2<\/span><\/span><\/sub>,<\/span><\/span>\u22ef<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>k<\/span><\/span><\/sub>}<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4efb\u610f\u7684\u53d6\u503c<\/span><\/span>z<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>z<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span><\/sub>,<\/span><\/span>z<\/span><\/span>2<\/span><\/span><\/sub>,<\/span><\/span>\u22ef<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>z<\/span><\/span>k<\/span><\/span><\/sub>)<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>z<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/sub>\u2208<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\uff0c\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\u7684\u75ca\u6108\u7387<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>z<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c\u670d\u836f\u7684\u75ca\u6108\u7387<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>z<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u90fd\u4e0e\u670d\u836f\u4e0e\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u6bd4\u4f8b\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u5373\u670d\u836f\u4e0e\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\u7684\u75ca\u6108\u7387\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u670d\u836f\u5206\u5e03<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u6761\u4ef6<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e0b\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03<\/span><\/span>{<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>}<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5373\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

{<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>}<\/span><\/span>\u22a5<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u22a5<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u5219\u8be5\u516c\u5f0f\u79f0\u4e3a\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u518d\u5047\u8bbe\u670d\u836f\u548c\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ec4\u90fd\u4e0d\u4e3a\u7a7a\uff08\u5373<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>><\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>><\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u8be5\u5047\u8bbe\u79f0\u4e3a\u6b63\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u6ee1\u8db3\u6b63\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\u79f0\u4e3a\u5f3a\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u5728\u5f3a\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6761\u4ef6\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u2212<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u89c2\u5bdf\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u60a3\u8005\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u77e5\u9053\u5728\u670d\u836f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u75ca\u6108\u90a3\u4e48\u5e0c\u671b\u77e5\u9053\u82e5\u4ed6\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u75ca\u6108\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5373\u5df2\u77e5<\/span><\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u8ba1\u7b97<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u72b6\u6001<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64 <\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u72b6\u6001\u6240\u5f15\u8d77\u7684<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u4e86\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u65b9\u6cd5\u201d\u7684\u540d\u79f0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u73b0\u5728\u5047\u8bbe\u6709\u53d8\u91cf\u96c6\u5408<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u65e2\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff08\u670d\u836f\u4e0e\u5426\uff09\uff0c\u53c8\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff08\u75ca\u6108\u4e0e\u5426\uff09\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u56fa\u5b9a<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff08\u4ee5<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u5207\u65ad\u4e86<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u901a\u8fc7<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u53ea\u4e0e\u670d\u836f\u4e0e\u5426\u6709\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u800c\u4e0e\u670d\u836f\u4eba\u6570\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff08\u5373<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u79f0\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7406\u8bba\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u4e00\u7ec4\u6761\u4ef6<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e0b\uff0c\u867d\u7136<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u53d6\u503c<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u8eab\u4f53\u5065\u5eb7\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u514d\u75ab\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u5e74\u9f84\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u65e0\u5173\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u8ba4\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u670d\u836f\u4eba\u6570\u662f100\u4eba\u8fd8\u662f1000\u4eba\uff0c\u5176\u670d\u836f\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6108\u7387<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u671f\u671b\u75ca\u6108\u7387<\/span><\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span>\u90fd\u662f\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5219\u65ad\u5b9a\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u2212<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span>\u5728\u6570\u503c\u4e0a\u8d85\u8fc7\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7684\u9608\u503c<\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u770b\u4f5c\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u5177\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u4e3b\u8981\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u6216\u8ba1\u7b97\u90fd\u660e\u786e\u5730\u6216\u9690\u542b\u5730\u91c7\u7eb3\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u51c6\u5219\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u662f\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5224\u5b9a\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4e3b\u89c2\u6807\u51c6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>
<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

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<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

5. \u57fa\u4e8e\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ece20\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4ee5\u6731\u8fea\u4e9a\u00b7\u73c0\u5c14<\/span>\uff08Judea Pearl\uff09<\/span>\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/span>[9]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u53eb\u505a\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Structural Causal Model\uff0cSCM\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u65b9\u7a0b\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u3001Do\u6f14\u7b97<\/span>\uff08\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3a\u5e72\u9884\u64cd\u4f5c\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5206\u6790\u7b49\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5f00\u521b\u4e86\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u6761\u4ece\u89c2\u5bdf\u6570\u636e<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u8005\u89c2\u5bdf\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u7ed3\u5408\uff09<\/span>\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u548c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u8def\u7ebf\u3002\u73c0\u5c14\u672c\u4eba\u4e5f\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u7b49\u4ef7\u7684<\/span><\/span>[10]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u80af\u5b9a\u4e86\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u666e\u9002\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u4fe1\u4efb\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>5.1 \u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u5047\u8bbe<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d6\u503c0\u62161\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u53d1\u751f\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08ACE\uff09<\/span>\u4e3a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u5f3a\u5236\u5c06<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e3a1\uff0c\u56fa\u5b9a\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u52a8<\/span>\uff08\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u5176\u5728<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5f3a\u5236\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e3a 0 \u65f6\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u5dee\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u9700\u5bf9 <\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u7684\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u5e73\u5747\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u6bcf\u4e2a <\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e0b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6309 <\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u7684\u5206\u5e03 <\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>z<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u52a0\u6743\u6c42\u548c\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u64cd\u4f5c\u9488\u5bf9\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u91cf <\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u6d88\u9664 <\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8c03\u6574 <\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u7ed3\u679c\u53cd\u6620 <\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u5bf9 <\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7279\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u5224\u5b9a<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u9608\u503c<\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span>\u2265<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5f53<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>A<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span>E<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u2192<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span><<\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>5.2 \u5e72\u9884\u64cd\u4f5c<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u65e2\u6bd4\u8f83\u7b26\u5408\u5e38\u8bc6\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u53c8\u5177\u6709\u575a\u5b9e\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\uff0cDo\u6f14\u7b97\u662f\u8be5\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5177\u6709\u5951\u5408\u5e38\u8bc6\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3002 Do\u6f14\u7b97\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4e3b\u52a8\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\u751a\u81f3\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u5bf9\u5b83\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u73c0\u5c14\u5b9a\u4e49\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u800c\u521b\u5efa\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u501f\u52a9\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u5b9a\u4e49\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u51b3\u7b56\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5bf9\u4e8e\u73b0\u6709\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u4e3b\u52a8\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u5df2\u77e5\u5f53\u524d\u73af\u5883<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u62df\u91c7\u53d6\u51b3\u7b56<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u8868\u793a\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>do<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u8868\u793a\u5728\u51b3\u7b56\u524d\u7684\u73af\u5883<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b9e\u65bd\u51b3\u7b56<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u9884\u5224<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u5219\u8868\u793a\u5728\u51b3\u7b56<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e0e\u5b9e\u65bd\u540e\u7684\u73af\u5883<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5171\u5b58\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002 \u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6709\u7740\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e92\u76f8\u5370\u8bc1\u3001\u4e92\u76f8\u8f6c\u6362\uff0c\u7b80\u76f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u5b6a\u751f\u3002\u501f\u52a9\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u6570\u636e\u6765\u5206\u6790\u548c\u5224\u65ad\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u5f97\u539f\u6765\u4e00\u4e9b\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\u4e5f\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u4e25\u8c28\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>5.3 \u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5206\u6790<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5982\u679c\u5728\u53d1\u751f<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u53c8\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u82e5<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>\u2032<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4ecd\u7136\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/sub>=<\/span><\/span><\/sub>x<\/span><\/span><\/sub>\u2032<\/span><\/span><\/sub>|<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u53cd\u601d\u548c\u56de\u987e\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u80fd\u4e2d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5728\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f15\u5165\u4e86Do\u6f14\u7b97<\/span><\/span>do<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5f3a\u5236\u8bbe\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e8e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e2d\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u64cd\u4f5c<\/span><\/span>do<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5219\u7ed3\u679c\u662f<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>do<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u82e5\u6539\u4e3a\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u64cd\u4f5c<\/span><\/span>do<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>\u2032<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u505a\u4e86<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u66ff\u6362\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u6240\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5e94\u8be5\u662f<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>do<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>\u2032<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>\u2217<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>\u2217<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6700\u90bb\u8fd1\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5373\u5728<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>\u2217<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u4e0d\u53d7<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u90fd\u53d6\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u503c\u3002\u4ee5\u524d\u4e5f\u6709\u8fc7\u5404\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u542b\u4e49\u662f\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\u6216\u8005\u96be\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e25\u683c\u533a\u5206\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e0e\u5047\u8bbe\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5f02\u540c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u6709\u4e9b\u5b9a\u4e49\u5c06\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u653e\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u521d\u8877\u76f8\u8fdd\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u5b9a\u4e49\u7528\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u6570\u5b66\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u96be\u4ee5\u5177\u4f53\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u800c\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u5219\u8bed\u4e49\u660e\u786e\uff0c\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u53c8\u6613\u4e8e\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd0\u7b97\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u8be5\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e0e\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\u8f83\u4e3a\u543b\u5408\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u3002\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bba\u8ff0\u4e2d\u662f\u5927\u91cf\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ece\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u73c0\u5c14\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7ea6\u5b9a\uff0c\u5374\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5173\u4e8e\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6700\u4e3a\u6e05\u6670\u3001\u6db5\u76d6\u9762\u6700\u5e7f\u4ee5\u53ca\u6700\u4fbf\u4e8e\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u4e2d\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>5.4 \u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7b49\u4ef7\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u6731\u8fea\u4e9a\u00b7\u73c0\u5c14<\/span>\uff08Judea Pearl\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08SCM\uff09<\/span>\u4e0e\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7b49\u4ef7\u6027<\/span><\/span>[10]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ed6\u5e76\u672a\u4ee5\u201c\u4e25\u683c\u6570\u5b66\u7b49\u4ef7\u201d\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u8868\u8ff0\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u901a\u8fc7\u4ee5\u4e0b\u65b9\u5f0f\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u6846\u67b6\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\u7684\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

1. \u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u751f\u6210\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a \u5728SCM\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u503c\u7531\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 <\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>f<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002 \u901a\u8fc7\u5e72\u9884\uff08\u5982\u8bbe\u5b9a <\/span><\/span>d<\/span><\/span>o<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u5bfc\u51fa\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c <\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5373\uff1a <\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>f<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u5b9e\u4f8b\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

2. \u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0edo-\u7b97\u5b50\u7684\u5bf9\u5e94\uff1a \u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u95ee\u9898\uff08\u5982\u201c\u82e5 <\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u4e3a <\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5219 <\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u201d\uff09\u5728SCM\u4e2d\u901a\u8fc7 <\/span><\/span>d<\/span><\/span>o<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u64cd\u4f5c\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u5b8c\u5168\u7b49\u4ef7\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>5.5 \u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8868\u8fbe<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

Judea Pearl\u57282000\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8457\u4f5c<\/span><\/span>[10]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u4e2d\u901a\u8fc7\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u5f15\u5165\u5e72\u9884\u64cd\u4f5c\uff08Do\u6f14\u7b97\uff09\uff0c\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u91cf\u5316\u4e3a\u5e72\u9884\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e0b\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5e72\u9884\u64cd\u4f5c\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u6df7\u6742\u53d8\u91cf\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f7f\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u771f\u6b63\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u516c\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0394<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u2223<\/span><\/span>d<\/span><\/span>o<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>\u2212<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u2223<\/span><\/span>d<\/span><\/span>o<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>\u2032<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d\uff1a <\/span><\/span>d<\/span><\/span>o<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u5bf9\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8fdb\u884c\u4eba\u4e3a\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e3a\u67d0\u4e2a\u503c<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff1b <\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u7ed3\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6\uff08\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\uff09\uff1b <\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>\u2032<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4ee3\u8868<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u5e72\u9884\u72b6\u6001\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u670d\u836f\u4e0e\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u5982<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u670d\u836f\uff0c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u670d\u836f\uff09\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u53ef\u7b80\u5316\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span>E<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>\u2223<\/span><\/span>d<\/span><\/span>o<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>\u2212<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>\u2223<\/span><\/span>d<\/span><\/span>o<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>5.6 \u5176\u4ed6\u57fa\u4e8e\u6982\u7387\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u5728Judea Pearl\u63d0\u51fa\u57fa\u4e8eDo\u6f14\u7b97\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8868\u8fbe\u524d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u5176\u4ed6\u57fa\u4e8e\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u89e3\u51b3\u6df7\u6742\u53d8\u91cf\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>5.6.1 Patrick Suppes\u7684\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u56e0\u679c\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

Suppes\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u5347<\/span>\uff08Probabilistic Raising\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/span>[6]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u539f\u56e0\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6838\u5fc3\u5b9a\u4e49\u53ef\u4ee5\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\uff0c\u82e5\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u9700\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e24\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

1.\u65f6\u5e8f\u6027<\/span>\uff08Temporal Priority\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/b>\uff1a\u539f\u56e0\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5fc5\u987b\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e4b\u524d\uff1b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

2.\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u5347<\/span>\uff08Probability Raising\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/b>\uff1a<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5e94\u63d0\u5347<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5373<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u2223<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>><\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Suppes \u901a\u8fc7\u6982\u7387\u5dee\u5f02<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff08Probability Difference\uff09<\/span>\u91cf\u5316\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5219\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0394<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u2223<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>\u2212<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u82e5 <\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span>><\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5219<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6709\u6b63\u5411\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff1b\u82e5<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span><<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5219\u4e3a\u8d1f\u5411\u6548\u5e94\uff1b\u82e5<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5219\u65e0\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u5ea6\u91cf\u65e0\u6cd5\u76f4\u63a5\u63a7\u5236\u6df7\u6742\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08confounders\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>5.6.2 Ellery Eells\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u56e0\u679c\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

Eells\u57281991\u5e74\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6982\u7387\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u5347<\/span>\uff08Sustained Probability Raising\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/span>[7]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002\u6838\u5fc3\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\uff0c\u82e5\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6<\/span><\/span>K<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e0b\uff0c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u63d0\u5347<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5e76\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\uff1a \u5728\u63a7\u5236\u6240\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6<\/span>\uff08Background Conditions\uff09<\/span><\/span>K<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0394<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u2223<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>K<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>\u2212<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u2223<\/span><\/span>\u00ac<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>K<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>K<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6709\u5173\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6\u96c6\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u82e5 <\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span>><\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5219<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6709\u6b63\u5411\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff1b\u82e5<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span><<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5219\u4e3a\u8d1f\u5411\u6548\u5e94\uff1b\u82e5<\/span><\/span>\u0394<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5219\u65e0\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Eells \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5b9a\u4e49\u6bd4 Suppes \u66f4\u4e25\u683c\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5728\u6240\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5747\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4ec5\u6574\u4f53\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e2d\u5f80\u5f80\u96be\u4ee5\u7a77\u5c3d\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684<\/span><\/span>K<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u64cd\u4f5c\u56f0\u96be\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>5.6.3 Patricia Cheng\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f52\u56e0\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

Patricia Cheng\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f52\u56e0\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Causal Attribution Theory\uff09<\/span><\/span>[8]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u6982\u5ff5\u6709\u6df1\u523b\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u5176\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u6269\u5c55\u548c\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\u662f\uff1a \u4eba\u7c7b\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5171\u53d8\u6982\u7387\uff08<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>\u00ac<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff09\u6765\u63a8\u65ad\u6f5c\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u9700\u6392\u9664\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u3002\u5176\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u8be5\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6\u65f6\u5bf9<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u51c0\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5373<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bfc\u81f4<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u529b<\/span>\uff08Causal Power\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u516c\u5f0f\u4e2d\u7684\u5206\u6bcd\u9879 <\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>\u2212<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>\u00ac<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5c06\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4ece<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u4e2d\u5265\u79bb\uff0c\u5f97\u5230<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u56e0\u679c\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u6df7\u6742\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u4fa7\u91cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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6. \u57fa\u4e8e\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f<\/span>\uff08Effective Information\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0EI\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u5728\u628a\u56e0\u53d8\u91cfX\u5e72\u9884\u4e3a\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u56e0\u53d8\u91cfX\u4e0e\u679c\u53d8\u91cfY\u7684\u4e92\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u6700\u65e9\u7531Giulio Tononi\u7b49\u4eba\u57282003\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa<\/span><\/span>[11]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6574\u5408\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\u3002\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5404\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u4e4b\u95f4\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u8054\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4fbf\u5177\u5907\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u6574\u5408\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u4fbf\u662f\u7528\u6765\u5ea6\u91cf\u8fd9\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u8054\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\u3002\u5230\u4e862013\u5e74\uff0cGiulio Tononi\u7684\u5b66\u751fErik Hoel\u7b49\u4eba\u5c06\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u70bc\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u5ea6\u91cf\u9a6c\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/span>[12]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0cHoel\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86Judea Pearl\u7684do\u6f14\u7b97\u6765\u6539\u9020\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u4e92\u4fe1\u606f\u6307\u6807<\/span><\/span>[24]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97EI\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u4e0e\u4e92\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4e92\u4fe1\u606f\u5ea6\u91cf\u7684\u662f\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f15\u5165\u4e86do\u6f14\u7b97\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ea6\u91cf\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>6.1 \u5f62\u5f0f\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u8003\u8651\u4e24\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff1a<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u4ee3\u8868\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08Cause Variable\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u679c\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08Effect Variable\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5047\u5b9a\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u53d6\u503c\u533a\u95f4\u5206\u522b\u662f<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u548c<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u3002\u5219<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u5230<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606fEI\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u4ee3\u8868\u5bf9<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u5b9e\u65bd\u5e72\u9884\u64cd\u4f5c <\/span>(\u6216\u79f0do\u6f14\u7b97\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u670d\u4ece<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u4e0a\u7684\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03<\/span><\/span>U<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>)<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u4e5f\u5373\u662f\u6700\u5927\u71b5\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u5206\u522b\u4ee3\u8868\u5728\u7ecf\u8fc7<\/span><\/span>d<\/span><\/span>o<\/span><\/span>\u5e72\u9884\u540e\u7684<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5e72\u9884\u540e\u7684\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u4e0e\u5e72\u9884\u524d\u7684\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6700\u5927\u533a\u522b\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d\u540c\uff1a<\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span>\u670d\u4ece<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u4e0a\u7684\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u800c<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4efb\u610f\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc<\/span><\/span>#<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>)<\/span><\/span>\u4ee3\u8868\u96c6\u5408<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u57fa\u6570\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6709\u9650\u5143\u7d20\u96c6\u5408\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u96c6\u5408\u4e2d\u5143\u7d20\u7684\u4e2a\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6309\u7167Judea Pearl\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0cdo\u7b97\u5b50\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5207\u65ad\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u6307\u5411<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u7bad\u5934\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u6301\u5176\u5b83\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4ece<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u5230<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u662f\u6307\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u53d6\u503c<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>\u2208<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u5728<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u4e0a\u53d6\u4efb\u610f\u503c<\/span><\/span>y<\/span><\/span>\u2208<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

f<\/span><\/span>\u2261<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>r<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>y<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u5e72\u9884\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u59cb\u7ec8\u4fdd\u6301\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/span>f<\/span><\/span>\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u5f53\u6ca1\u6709\u5176\u5b83\u53d8\u91cf\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u4f1a\u8ddf\u7740\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5373\u88ab\u95f4\u63a5\u5e72\u9884\u6210\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u5219\u4ee3\u8868\uff1a\u5728\u4fdd\u6301\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/span>f<\/span><\/span>\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span>\u53d8\u91cf\u88ab<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u7684do\u5e72\u9884\u6240\u95f4\u63a5\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u7684Y\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u53d8\u5316\u4e3b\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4e0a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/span>f<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606fEI\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u88ab\u5e72\u9884\u540e\u7684\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u548c\u679c\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u5373\u53ef\u5ea6\u91cfX\u4e0eY\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\uff0cEI\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236f\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u5f53\u6784\u6210\u77e9\u9635<\/span><\/span>f<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u884c\u5411\u91cf\u90fd\u76f8\u7b49\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0cEI=0\uff1b\u5f53\u6784\u6210<\/span><\/span>f<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u884c\u5411\u91cf\u90fd\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u72ec\u70ed\u5411\u91cf<\/span>\uff08one-hot\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0cEI\u80fd\u53d6\u5230\u6700\u5927\u503c<\/span><\/span>log<\/span><\/span>2<\/span><\/span><\/sub>\u2061<\/span><\/span><\/sub>N<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>N<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>#<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\")<\/span><\/span><\/sub>\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f<\/span><\/span>f<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u884c\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>6.2 \u6709\u6548\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u6839\u636eErik Hoel\u7b49\u4eba\u5728\u6587\u7ae0<\/span><\/span>[12]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u4e2d\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0cEI\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u548c\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u5927\u5c0f\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6027\u8d28\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u9a6c\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u94fe\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u65b9\u4fbf\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0cHoel\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53d7\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6548\u5e94\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\uff0c\u5373\u6709\u6548\u6027<\/span>\uff08Effectiveness\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8be5\u53d8\u91cf\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u7528\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03\u5373\u6700\u5927\u71b5\u5206\u5e03\u4e0b\u7684\u71b5\u503c\uff0c\u5373<\/span><\/span>log<\/span><\/span>\u2061<\/span><\/span>N<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6765\u505a\u5206\u6bcd\u5bf9EI\u8fdb\u884c\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684<\/span><\/span>N<\/span><\/span>\u4e3a\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4<\/span><\/span>X<\/span><\/span>\u4e2d\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u540e\u7684EI\u4fbf\u7b49\u4e8e\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u6307\u6807\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u6709\u6548\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/b>\uff08effectiveness\uff0cEff\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>6.3 \u7ef4\u5ea6\u5e73\u5747\u7684EI<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u5f20\u6c5f\u56e2\u961f\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u5bf9\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\u60c5\u5f62\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span><\/span>[13]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u89e3\u51b3\u8fde\u7eed\u72b6\u6001\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0a\u7684EI\u6bd4\u8f83\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6307\u6807\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u7ef4\u5ea6\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f<\/span><\/span><\/b>\uff08Dimension Averaged Effective Information\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0dEI\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5176\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c<\/span><\/span>n<\/span><\/span>\u4e3a\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u79bb\u6563\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u7ef4\u5ea6\u5e73\u5747\u7684EI<\/span><\/span><\/b>\u548c<\/span><\/span>\u6709\u6548\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/b>\u6307\u6807<\/span>\uff08Eff\uff09<\/span>\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u7b49\u4ef7\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u4f46Eff\u4e2d\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u72b6\u6001\u6570\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800cJ\u5219\u6ca1\u6709\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8en\u7ef4\u8fed\u4ee3\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u9996\u5148\uff0c<\/span><\/span>y<\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u540c\u4e00\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe<\/span><\/span>y<\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u57df\u4e0d\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u5b9e\u6570\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8db3\u591f\u5927\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff1a<\/span><\/span>[<\/span><\/span>\u2212<\/span><\/span>L<\/span><\/span>\/<\/span><\/span>2<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>L<\/span><\/span>\/<\/span><\/span>2<\/span><\/span>]<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dL\u4e3a\u8be5\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u4e0a\u7684\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\u51fd\u6570\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>\/<\/span><\/span>L<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u5f53<\/span><\/span>L<\/span><\/span>\u2192<\/span><\/span>+<\/span><\/span>\u221e<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0cEI\u80fd\u591f\u6536\u655b\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u9650\u7684\u6570\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u7684EI\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u548c<\/span><\/span>x<\/span><\/span>\u5b9a\u4e49\u57df\u5927\u5c0f\u6709\u5173\u7684\u91cf\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5EI\u662f\u53c2\u6570L\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u7ef4\u5ea6\u5e73\u5747EI\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

7. \u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u57fa\u5143<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>7.1 \u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f52\u7eb3\u5404\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7528\u4e00\u5957\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\u63cf\u8ff0\u5b83\u4eec\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5148\u7ed9\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/span>[16]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4<\/span><\/span>\u03a9<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u96c6\u5408\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5355\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u8bb0\u4f5c<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5355\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u8bb0\u4f5c<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\uff0c\u4e00\u7ec4\u539f\u56e0\u8bb0\u4f5c<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span><\/span> \uff0c\u4e00\u7ec4\u7ed3\u679c\u8bb0\u4f5c<\/span><\/span>E<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5047\u5b9a<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5728<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5e76\u6ee1\u8db3<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span>\u2208<\/span><\/span>\u03a9<\/span><\/span>\u3001<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span>\u2208<\/span><\/span>\u03a9<\/span><\/span>\u3001<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span>\u2286<\/span><\/span>\u03a9<\/span><\/span>\u3001<\/span><\/span>E<\/span><\/span>\u2286<\/span><\/span>\u03a9<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8861\u91cf\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u628a\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u83b7\u5f97<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5199\u6210<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4ee3\u8868\u6982\u7387\uff0c<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4ee3\u8868<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u8865\u96c6\uff0c<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5728<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e2d\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u539f\u56e0\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u9664\u4e86<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u8868\u793a\u4e3a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

7.2 \u56e0\u679c\u57fa\u5143\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u8ba8\u8bba\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u7cfb\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u5145\u5206\u6027\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002\u5145\u5206\u6027\u662f\u6307\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5426\u603b\u662f\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u662f\u6307\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f97\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u9700\u8981\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u7406\u89e3\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5143\u7d20\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u57fa\u5143<\/span>\uff08Causal Primatives\uff09<\/span><\/span>[16]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002\u5728\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\uff0c\u5145\u5206\u6027\u548c\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u5206\u522b\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>7.2.1 \u5145\u5206\u6027\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

1.\u5145\u5206\u6027\uff1a\u8fd9\u91cc\u6307\u7684\u662f\u539f\u56e0<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u4ea7\u751f\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5145\u5206\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6bcf\u5f53\u539f\u56e0<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u603b\u662f\u968f\u4e4b\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u4ea7\u751f<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5145\u5206\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u8db3\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u5145\u5206\u6027\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

2.\u5145\u5206\u6027\u7684\u5e7f\u4e49\u5f62\u5f0f-\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u539f\u56e0\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5373<\/span><\/span>P<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5219\u8be5\u71b5\u9879\u4e3a\u96f6\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u539f\u56e0\u5177\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5219\u71b5\u6700\u5927\uff0c\u5373<\/span><\/span>log<\/span><\/span>2<\/span><\/span>\u2061<\/span><\/span>n<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>n<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e3a\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u7528<\/span><\/span>H<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u539f\u56e0\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u71b5\uff0c\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u539f\u56e0<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>log<\/span><\/span>2<\/span><\/span><\/sub>\u2061<\/span><\/span>n<\/span><\/span>\u2212<\/span><\/span>H<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span>|<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5b83\u505a\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7cfb\u6570<\/span><\/span>d<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span>t<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u8be5\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u4e0e\u5145\u5206\u6027\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5728 0<\/span>\uff08\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\uff09<\/span>\u548c 1<\/span>\uff08\u5b8c\u5168\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u8f6c\u6362\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7cfb\u6570<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u4ee5\u53ca\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ea7\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7cfb\u6570<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

7.2.2 \u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

1.\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\uff1a\u8fd9\u91cc\u6307\u539f\u56e0<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u4ea7\u751f\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u6709\u901a\u8fc7<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u624d\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u4ea7\u751f<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6ca1\u6709<\/span><\/span>c<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u7528\u8868\u793a\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

2.\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u7684\u5e7f\u4e49\u5f62\u5f0f-\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\uff1a\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u63a8\u5e7f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5373\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4e9b\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u7531\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5f15\u8d77\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e00\u7ec4\u539f\u56e0<\/span><\/span>C<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bfc\u81f4<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u7684\u71b5\u6765\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u7cfb\u6570<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u4ee5\u53ca\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ea7\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u7cfb\u6570<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

7.3 \u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u57fa\u5143\u8868\u793a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5143\u8bed\u8868\u73b0\u5f62\u5f0f<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

7.4 \u603b\u7ed3<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u4e0a\u8868\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u57fa\u5143<\/span>\uff08\u5145\u5206\u6027\u548c\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5e7f\u4e49\u5f62\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u90fd\u88ab\u660e\u786e\u5730\u7f6e\u4e8e\u67d0\u79cd\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5dee\u5f02\u3001\u6bd4\u7387\u6216\u6743\u8861\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002Erik Hoel\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cJudea Pearl \u5c31\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff1a \u201c\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6210\u5206\u548c\u5145\u5206\u6210\u5206\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d6\u5f97\u67d0\u79cd\u5e73\u8861”<\/span><\/span>[10]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002J. L. Mackie\u867d\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5728\u63d0\u51fa\u539f\u56e0\u5e94\u6ee1\u8db3\u7684 INUS \u6761\u4ef6<\/span>\uff08Insufficient but Necessary part of an Unnecessary but Sufficient condition\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0INUS\uff09<\/span>\u65f6\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e86\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u548c\u5145\u5206\u6027\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff0cMackie\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5e94\u8be5\u5305\u542b\u4e24\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\uff1a\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5b83\u5fc5\u987b\u662f\u67d0\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u672c\u8eab\u8db3\u4ee5\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0d\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bfc\u81f4\u540c\u6837\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e2d\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u90e8\u5206<\/span>\uff08\u5373INUS\u6761\u4ef6\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6574\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5355\u72ec\u6765\u770b\u5e76\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5f15\u8d77\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/span>[25]<\/span><\/span><\/sup>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u679c\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u548c\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u8bf4\u660e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u672c\u8eab\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u59cb\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u5145\u5206\u6027\u548c\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u89e3\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5e7f\u4e49\u5f62\u5f0f\u5206\u522b\u662f\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u4e0d\u518d\u9700\u8981\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fc5\u987b\u8fbe\u6210\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8bc6\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5c5e\u6027\u7ee7\u7eed\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u679c\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u6d77\u62a5\u9884\u89c8\"<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u672c\u8bcd\u6761\u7531\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u4f17\u5305\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u96be\u514d\u5b58\u5728\u7eb0\u6f0f\u548c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u5927\u5bb6\u7559\u8a00\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u4e00\u7ecf\u91c7\u7eb3\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u79ef\u5206\u5956\u52b1\u5662\uff01<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u52a0\u5165\u6211\u4eec<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u4eb2\u7231\u7684\u793e\u533a\u4f19\u4f34\u4e0e\u77e5\u8bc6\u63a2\u7d22\u8005\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u8bda\u631a\u9080\u8bf7\u70ed\u7231\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u4eab\u7684\u60a8\uff0c\u52a0\u5165<\/span><\/span>\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u6761\u7f16\u5199\u5fd7\u613f\u56e2\u961f<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff01\u65e0\u8bba\u60a8\u662f\u9886\u57df\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u4e3b\u9898\u5145\u6ee1\u70ed\u5ff1\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u8005\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u90fd\u6709\u60a8\u7684\u821e\u53f0\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u7f16\u5199\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u6761\uff0c\u60a8\u5c06\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u8bfb\u8005\u4f20\u9012\u6743\u5a01\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u83b7\u5f97<\/span><\/span>\u4e13\u5bb6\u6307\u5bfc<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u4e0e<\/span><\/span>\u4e2a\u4eba\u80fd\u529b<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u8dc3\u5347\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u6210\u957f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\ud83d\udcdd <\/span><\/span>\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u804c\u8d23<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u521b\u4f5c\u65b0\u8bcd\u6761\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u8986\u76d6\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7b49\u524d\u6cbf\u9886\u57df<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fed\u4ee3\u7ecf\u5178\u5185\u5bb9<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u66f4\u65b0\u73b0\u6709\u8bcd\u6761\uff0c\u5b88\u62a4\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u4e0e\u65f6\u6548\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8d28\u91cf\u5b88\u62a4\u8005<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u53c2\u4e0e\u5185\u5bb9\u6821\u5bf9\u5ba1\u6838\uff0c\u5171\u5efa\u7cbe\u54c1\u77e5\u8bc6\u5e93<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\ud83c\udf1f <\/span><\/span>\u6211\u4eec\u671f\u5f85\u60a8<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u96c6\u667a\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\uff08\u9700\u5b8c\u6210\u5171\u521b\u4efb\u52a1\u5e76\u83b7\u5f97\u9000\u8d39\u8d44\u683c\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u62e5\u6709\u6e05\u6670\u8868\u8fbe\u590d\u6742\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u5199\u4f5c\u80fd\u529b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u9886\u57df\u6709\u6df1\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\u6216\u5f3a\u70c8\u5174\u8da3<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5177\u5907\u4fe1\u606f\u68c0\u7d22\u4e0e\u6574\u5408\u7d20\u517b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6000\u63e3\u8d23\u4efb\u611f\u4e0e\u534f\u4f5c\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u613f\u4e3a\u77e5\u8bc6\u5171\u4eab\u8d4b\u80fd<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\ud83c\udf81 <\/span><\/span>\u60a8\u5c06\u6536\u83b7<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u767e\u79d1\u79ef\u5206\uff08\u652f\u6301\u5151\u6362\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u5468\u8fb9\uff1a\u6587\u5316\u886b\u3001\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u5361\u7b49\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u5f20\u6c5f\u6559\u6388\u4eb2\u81ea\u6307\u5bfc\u5199\u4f5c<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u79d1\u7814\u52a9\u7406\u664b\u5347\u901a\u9053\uff1a\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u5f02\u8005\u53ef\u52a0\u5165\u5f20\u6c5f\u6559\u6388\u79d1\u7814\u56e2\u961f<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u52a0\u5165\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u671f\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5e76\u5b8c\u6210\u5171\u521b\u4efb\u52a1\u5373\u53ef \u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u7528\u77e5\u8bc6\u8fde\u63a5\u4e16\u754c\uff01<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/span><\/p>\n

1. David Hume. An Enquiry concerning Human Understanding. 1748.<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n

2. Pearson, Karl (1896). “Mathematical Contributions to the Theory of Evolution. III. Regression, Heredity, and Panmixia”. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. 187: 253\u2013318.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

3. Neyman, Jerzy (1923). “O wyznaczeniu efekt\u00f3w do\u015bwiadcze\u0144 losowych” [[On Determining the Effects of Randomized Experiments]]. Ksi\u0105\u017cnica Atlas (in Polish). Ksi\u0105\u017cnica Atlas.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

4. Rubin, Donald B. (1972). “Estimating Causal Effects of Treatments in Experimental and Observational Studies”. ETS Research Bulletin Series. 1972 (2): i\u201331.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

5. Granger, C. W. J. (1969). “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”. Econometrica. 37: 424\u2013438.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

6. Suppes, Patrick (1970). A Probabilistic Theory of Causality. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

7. Eells, Ellery (1991). Probabilistic Causality. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

8. Cheng, Patricia W. (1997). “From covariation to causation: A causal power theory”. Psychological Review. 104 (2): 367\u2013405.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

9. Pearl, Judea (1995). “Causal Diagrams for Empirical Research”. Biometrika. 82 (4): 702\u2013710.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

10. Pearl, Judea (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0521895606.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

11. Tononi, G.; Sporns, O. (2003). “Measuring information integration”. BMC Neuroscience. 4 (31).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

12. Hoel, Erik P.; Albantakis, L.; Tononi, G. (2013). “Quantifying causal emergence shows that macro can beat micro”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110 (49): 19790\u201319795.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

13. Zhang, Jiang; Liu, Kaiwei (2022). “Neural Information Squeezer for Causal Emergence”. Entropy. 25 (1): 26.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

14. Mingzhe Yang; Zhipeng Wang; Kaiwei Liu; Yingqi Rong; Bing Yuan; Jiang Zhang (2024). “Finding emergence in data by maximizing effective information”. arXiv: 2308.09952.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

15. Kaiwei Liu; Bing Yuan; Jiang Zhang (2024). “An Exact Theory of Causal Emergence for Stochastic Iterative Systems”. arXiv: 2405.09207.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

16. Comolatti, Renzo; Hoel, Erik (2022). “Causal emergence is widespread across measures of causation”. arXiv preprint. arXiv:2202.01854.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

17. \u674e\u5ec9; \u5218\u793c; \u6768\u77eb\u4e91; \u5ed6\u519b; \u6881\u77e5\u97f3 (7 2023). \u56e0\u679c\u6f2b\u6b65. \u673a\u68b0\u5de5\u4e1a\u51fa\u7248\u793e.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

18. Pearl, Judea (2018). Measuring Causality: The Science of Cause and Effect. Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017\/9781108270218. ISBN 978-1108420220.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

19. Wiener, Norbert (1949). Extrapolation, Interpolation, and Smoothing of Stationary Time Series. The MIT Press. ISBN 9780262230025.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

20. Wiener, Norbert (1956). “The theory of prediction”. Modern Mathematics for Engineers. 1: 125\u2013139.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

21. Schreiber, Thomas (2000). “Measuring information transfer”. Physical Review Letters. 85 (2): 461.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

22. Kathpalia, Aditi; Nagaraj, Nithin (2019). “Data – based intervention approach for Complexity – Causality measure” (PDF). PeerJ Computer Science. 5: e196.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

23. Nagaraj, Nithin; Balasubramanian, Karthi; Dey, Sutirth (2013). “A new complexity measure for time series analysis and classification”. The European Physical Journal Special Topics. 222 (3\u20134): 847\u2013860.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

24. Judea Pearl; \u5218\u793c; \u6768\u77eb\u4e91; \u5ed6\u519b; \u674e\u5ec9 (4 2022). \u56e0\u679c\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u63a8\u7406\u548c\u63a8\u65ad. \u673a\u68b0\u5de5\u4e1a\u51fa\u7248\u793e.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

25. J. L. Mackie. Causes and Conditions. American Philosophical Quarterly, 2(4):245\u2013264, 1965. Publisher:University of Illinois Press.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u53ef<\/span>\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52a8<\/span><\/strong>\u67e5\u770b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u516d\u5b63<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u5728\u9713\u8679\u706f\u7684\u95ea\u70c1\u3001\u8681\u7fa4\u7684\u7cbe\u5bc6\u534f\u4f5c\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u8bde\u751f\u4e2d\uff0c\u9690\u85cf\u7740\u5fae\u89c2\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e4b\u95f4\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u8054\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u770b\u4f3c\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u8de8\u8d8a\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u53f9\u7684\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u8c61\uff1f\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u7b54\u6848\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7279\u5f81\u65e0\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u89c2\u5143\u7d20\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u53e0\u52a0\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6e90\u4e8e\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u52a8\u6001\u4ea4\u4e92\u4e2d\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u4ece\u5947\u5f02\u503c\u5206\u89e3\uff08SVD\uff09\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u53ef\u9006\u6027\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u62bd\u8c61\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u5206\u89e3\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u6784\u5efa\u8d77\u4e00\u5957\u8de8\u8d8a\u6570\u5b66\u3001\u7269\u7406\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u7801\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u201c\u6d8c\u73b0\u5bc6\u7801\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e3a\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u68b3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6700\u65b0\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388\u3001\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u5f20\u6c5f\u8001\u5e08\u9886\u8854\u53d1\u8d77\u300c\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7b2c\u516d\u5b63\u300d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5bf9\u672c\u8bdd\u9898\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u8bfb\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u79d1\u7814\u7075\u611f\u3002\u89c6\u9891\u56de\u653e\u5df2\u4e0a\u7ebf\u3002\u8bda\u631a\u9080\u8bf7\u9886\u57df\u5185\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u3001\u5bfb\u6c42\u8de8\u9886\u57df\u878d\u5408\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u52a0\u5165\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u63a2\u8ba8\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u56fe\u7247\"<\/span><\/a><\/section>\n
\n


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\u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u89c1\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7b2c\u516d\u5b63\u2014\u2014\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u62bd\u8c61\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u5206\u89e3<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/span><\/p>\n

\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

1.<\/span><\/strong>\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6846\u67b6NIS+\uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u6700\u5927\u5316\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u8bc6\u522b\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u201d\uff5c\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
2.<\/span><\/strong>\u5168\u7f51\u6700\u5168\u603b\u7ed3\uff01\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6838\u5fc3\u6307\u6807\u201c\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u201d\uff5c\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
3.<\/span><\/strong>\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6846\u67b6NIS+\uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u6700\u5927\u5316\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u8bc6\u522b\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u201d | NSR<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
4. <\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u6e38\u620f\u5316\u79d1\u7814\u2014\u2014\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u7a81\u7834\u5185\u5377\u3001\u5171\u7814\u6d8c\u73b0<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/strong>5. <\/span><\/strong>\u63a2\u7d22\u8005\u8ba1\u5212 | \u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e82025\u5185\u5bb9\u56e2\u961f\u62db\u52df\uff08\u5168\u804c&\u517c\u804c\uff09<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

6. \u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u73a9\u8f6c\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u5171\u521b\u6591\u56fe\uff01\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u7ebf\u4e0b\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u62db\u52df<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/span><\/a><\/section>\n


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\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c<\/span>\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5bfc\u8bed \u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff08Causal Effect\uff09\u662f\u6307\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cfX\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cfY\u4e5f\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5c31\u662f\u91cf\u5316X\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9Y\u6709\u591a\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002 \u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u6307\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u539f\u56e0\uff09\u4e0e\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u7ed3\u679c\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0e\u88ab\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5f3a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":61568,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61637"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=61637"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61637\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/61568"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=61637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=61637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=61637"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=61637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}