{"id":62092,"date":"2025-07-15T21:59:53","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T13:59:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=62092"},"modified":"2025-07-15T21:59:53","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T13:59:53","slug":"%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e6%9c%89%e6%95%88%e5%bb%ba%e6%a8%a1%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%ef%bc%8c%e5%81%9a%e5%a5%bd%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e7%ae%a1%e7%90%86%e4%b8%8e%e5%86%b3%e7%ad%96","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=62092","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u6709\u6548\u5efa\u6a21\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u505a\u597d\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0e\u51b3\u7b56\uff1f | \u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u53d1\u5e03"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u5f53\u524d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u906d\u53d7\u591a\u91cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5982\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u52a0\u5267\u3001\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6469\u64e6\u53ca\u4fc4\u4e4c\u51b2\u7a81\u7b49\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8fbe\u5230\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u673a\u6784\u53ca\u5f02\u8d28\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u5173\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5448\u73b0\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u4e0e\u7f51\u7edc\u5316\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5e38\u5f15\u53d1\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u662f\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u843d\u5730\u548c\u6df1\u5316\u300220\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u4ee5\u201c\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u201d\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u5f02\u8d28\u4e3b\u4f53\u4ea4\u4e92\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u7f51\u7edc\u8fdb\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u3002W. Brian Arthur \u7b49\u4eba\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u95f4\u7684\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u8fdb\u884c\u6709\u6548\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u9996\u6b21\u5c06\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7eb3\u5165\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u89c6\u57df\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8fdb\u516521\u4e16\u7eaa\u540e\uff0c\u725b\u6d25\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6Neil F. Johnson\u5728\u4e13\u8457\u300aFinancial Market Complexity\u300b\uff082003\uff09\u4e2d\u6b63\u5f0f\u5c06\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u5916\u6c47\u3001\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u7b49\u5e02\u573a\u6574\u4f53\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u6ce2\u52a8\u96c6\u805a\u3001\u80a5\u5c3e\u5206\u5e03\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9891\u73b0\u7b49\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6210\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u4ece\u201c\u80fd\u5426\u590d\u5236\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e8b\u5b9e\u201d\u53d1\u5c55\u5230\u201c\u523b\u753b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u201d\uff0c\u4ecePhilip Z. Maymin\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6781\u7b80\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7528128\u4f4d\u5143\u80de\u81ea\u52a8\u673a\u89c4\u5219\u590d\u73b0\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5c16\u5cf0\u4e0e\u6ce2\u52a8\u96c6\u805a\u7b49\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u5230Haldane & May\u5c06\u94f6\u884c\u540c\u4e1a\u62c6\u501f\u7f51\u7edc\u6bd4\u4f5c\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u7f51\u7edc\u8fde\u901a\u5ea6\u4e0e\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u5185\u5728\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u5b8f\u89c2\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\u7eb3\u5165\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765BIS\u3001IMF\u53ca\u591a\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3001\u76f8\u53d8\u9884\u8b66\u6307\u6807\u7b49\u7eb3\u5165\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u76d1\u6d4b\u4e0e\u6cbb\u7406\uff0c\u5bf9\u8de8\u5e02\u573a\u4f20\u67d3\u3001\u95ea\u7535\u5d29\u76d8\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u8def\u5f84\u8fdb\u884c\u60c5\u666f\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5df2\u4ece\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u63a2\u7d22\u6f14\u8fdb\u4e3a\u6db5\u76d6\u7406\u8bba\u5efa\u6a21\u3001\u6570\u636e\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u5b9e\u8df5\u7684\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u524d\u6cbf\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u6d1e\u89c1\u5728\u4e8e\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u4f17\u591a\u5f02\u8d28\u4e3b\u4f53\u5728\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u4ea4\u4e92\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u88ab\u7ebf\u6027\u3001\u5747\u8861\u5047\u8bbe\u5b8c\u5168\u548c\u51c6\u786e\u523b\u753b\u3002\u7406\u89e3\u5e76\u7ba1\u7406\u8fd9\u79cd\u6d8c\u73b0\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u57fa\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u6765\u8865\u5145\u73b0\u6709\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u589e\u8fdb\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u6539\u5584\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u5e76\u652f\u6301\u66f4\u4e3a\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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    \u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u8303\u5f0f\u548c\u6700\u65b0\u70ed\u70b9\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    \u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7ed9\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u54ea\u4e9b\u7a81\u7834\uff1f<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    \u5982\u4f55\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5f53\u524d\u591a\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\u53e0\u52a0\u3001\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\uff1f<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  4. \n

    \u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u548c\u5316\u89e3\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff1f<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  5. \n

    \u5982\u4f55\u66f4\u987a\u5229\u7684\u53d1\u8868\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u79d1\u7814\u8bba\u6587\uff1f<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n


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    1. \n

      \u68b3\u7406\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u53d1\u5c55\u8109\u7edc\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\uff1b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    2. \n

      \u638c\u63e1\u4e00\u5957\u7406\u89e3\u3001\u5206\u6790\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u6846\u67b6\uff1b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    3. \n

      \u638c\u63e1\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u7b49\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u4ea4\u53c9\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    4. \n

      \u9886\u7565\u9886\u57df\u524d\u6cbf\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e0e\u79d1\u7814\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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      \u674e\u7ea2\u521a<\/span>\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u6587\u7406\u5b66\u9662\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7cfb\uff08\u73e0\u6d77\u6821\u533a\uff09\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u7a0b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u6559\u80b2\u90e8\u65b0\u4e16\u7eaa\u4f18\u79c0\u4eba\u624d\u652f\u6301\u8ba1\u5212\u5165\u9009\u8005\u3002\u62e5\u6709\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u4ece\u4e8b\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3001\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u8ba1\u7b97\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4ee5\u53ca\u516c\u5171\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u6cbb\u7406\u7b49\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u79ef\u6781\u63a8\u52a8\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u7a0b\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u6cbb\u7406\u7684\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u878d\u5408\u3002\u6559\u5b66\u6db5\u76d6\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u5bfc\u8bba\u3001\u8fd0\u7b79\u5b66\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u5de5\u7a0b\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u7a0b\u53ca\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u672c\u79d1\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u8bfe\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      Brian Lucey<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u7231\u5c14\u5170\u90fd\u67cf\u6797\u5723\u4e09\u4e00\u5b66\u9662 (Trinity College Dublin) \u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u62c5\u4efbSSCI\u671f\u520aInternational Review of Economics and Finance\uff0cJournal of Economic Surveys\u4e3b\u7f16\uff0c\u66fe\u4efbSSCI\u671f\u520aInternational Review of Financial Analysis\uff0cFinance Research Letters\u4e3b\u7f16\uff0cINFINITI\u56fd\u9645\u4f1a\u8bae\u53d1\u8d77\u4eba\u53ca\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002Lucey\u6559\u6388\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u8d44\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u884c\u4e3a\u7b49\uff0c\u5728Journal of Banking and Finance\u3001Journal of Corporate Finance, British Accounting Review\u7b49\u56fd\u9645\u5b66\u672f\u6743\u5a01\u671f\u520a\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u4e86200\u591a\u7bc7\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u5b66\u672f\u8bba\u6587\u3002\u5728\u52a0\u5165\u90fd\u67cf\u6797\u5723\u4e09\u4e00\u5b66\u9662\u4e4b\u524d\uff0cLucey\u6559\u6388\u66fe\u62c5\u4efb\u7231\u5c14\u5170\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u7231\u5c14\u5170\u5065\u5eb7\u4e0e\u513f\u7ae5\u90e8\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u5386\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \u9ec4\u4e66\u57f9<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5730\u8d28\u5927\u5b66\uff08\u5317\u4eac\uff09\u526f\u6559\u6388\u3001\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u3002\u81ea2020\u5e74\u8d77\u62c5\u4efb4\u4e2a\u56fd\u9645\u671f\u520a\u526f\u4e3b\u7f16\u548c\u591a\u4e2a\u5ba2\u5ea7\u7f16\u8f91\uff0c\u4efbSSCI\u671f\u520aInternational Review of Financial Analysis\u526f\u4e3b\u7f16\u3001SSCI\u671f\u520aInternational Review of Economics & Finance\u526f\u4e3b\u7f16\u3001Scopus\u671f\u520aJournal of Climate Finance\u526f\u4e3b\u7f16\u3001ESCI\u671f\u520aFrontiers in Sustainable Cities\u526f\u4e3b\u7f16\uff1b\u5728SSCI\/SCI\/ESCI\u671f\u520aEntropy\u3001Frontiers in Physics\u3001Sustainable Futures\u3001International Review of Financial Analysis\u7b49\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7279\u520a\uff0c\u62c5\u4efb\u5ba2\u5ea7\u7f16\u8f91\u3002\u4e3b\u6301\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u9752\u5e74\u9879\u76ee\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u90e8\u4eba\u6587\u793e\u79d1\u57fa\u91d1\u9879\u76ee\u7b4910\u4f59\u9879\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9879\u76ee\u4e3b\u5e72\u53c2\u52a0\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u91cd\u5927\u9879\u76ee\u3001\u79d1\u6280\u90e8\u91cd\u70b9\u7814\u53d1\u8ba1\u5212\u3001\u5317\u4eac\u5e02\u793e\u79d1\u91cd\u70b9\u51b3\u7b56\u9879\u76ee\u3001\u5317\u4eac\u5e02\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u9752\u5e74\/\u9762\u4e0a\u9879\u76ee\u3001\u5317\u4eac\u5e02\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u5b66\u4f1a\u8bfe\u9898\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u90e8\u4f9b\u9700\u5bf9\u63a5\u5c31\u4e1a\u80b2\u4eba\u9879\u76ee\u7b4930\u4f59\u9879\u3002\u5728Economics Letters\u3001Journal of International Money and Finance\u3001International Review of Financial Analysis\u3001Energy Economics\u3001International Review of Economics & Finance\u3001Finance Research Letters\u3001Applied Energy\u3001Energy Policy\u3001Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews\u3001Energy\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ba1\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u8d44\u6e90\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u671f\u520a\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u658750\u4f59\u7bc7\u3002\u591a\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u83b7\u5f97\u515a\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u3001\u7701\u90e8\u7ea7\u9886\u5bfc\u6279\u793a\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u90e8\u59d4\u611f\u8c22\u4fe1\uff1b\u5728\u4e2d\u592e\u5e7f\u64ad\u7535\u53f0\u62c5\u4efb\u653f\u7b56\u89e3\u8bfb\u5609\u5bbe\uff0c\u670d\u52a1\u793e\u4f1a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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      \u738b\u6cfd<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u9996\u90fd\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u8bb2\u5e08\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u5de5\u7a0b\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u540e\uff0c\u7855\u58eb\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5e02\u603b\u4f53\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u89c2\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7279\u8058\u7814\u7a76\u5458\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u5e9c\u7ba1\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7279\u8058\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3002\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u3001\u9884\u8b66\u548c\u6062\u590d\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e3b\u6301\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u9752\u5e74\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5e02\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u89c4\u5212\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u535a\u58eb\u540e\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u9762\u4e0a\u9879\u76ee\u54041\u9879\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u56fd\u81ea\u7136\u91cd\u70b9\u9879\u76ee\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ea7\u4e0e\u7701\u90e8\u7ea7\u9879\u76ee\u5341\u4f59\u9879\u3002\u7d2f\u8ba1\u53d1\u8868\u79d1\u7814\u8bba\u658740\u4f59\u7bc7\uff08SCI\/SSCI\u8bba\u658735\u7bc7\uff09\uff0cGoogle\u5b66\u672f\u5f15\u7528800\u4f59\u6b21\uff0cH\u6307\u657016\uff0ci10\u6307\u657020\u3002\u62c5\u4efbSCI\u671f\u520aFrontiers in Physics\u5ba2\u5ea7\u7f16\u8f91\uff0c\u517c\u4efb\u5341\u4f59\u4e2a\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u671f\u520a\u533f\u540d\u5ba1\u7a3f\u4eba\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u591a\u6b21\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u91cd\u8981\u5b66\u672f\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u6c47\u62a5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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      \u5e78\u5c0f\u4e91<\/span>\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u6797\u4e1a\u5927\u5b66\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u96c6\u6210\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u7855\u58eb\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u5b8f\u89c2\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u7b49\u3002\u8fd1\u4e94\u5e74\u5728\u300aApplied Energy\u300b\u300aEnergy\u300b\u300aResearch in International Business and Finance\u300b\u7b49SCI\/SSCI\u6536\u5f55\u671f\u520a\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\u4e8c\u5341\u4f59\u7bc7\u3002\u62c5\u4efb\u300aFinancial Innovation\u300b\u300aEnergy Economics\u300b\u300aEcological Economics\u300b\u7b49\u56fd\u9645\u671f\u520a\u533f\u540d\u5ba1\u7a3f\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n

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      \u738b\u6b23\u96c5<\/span>\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5316\u5de5\u5927\u5b66\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u7855\u58eb\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4e3b\u8981\u6d89\u53ca\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u7b49\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u5728\u300aJournal of International Money and Finance\u300b\u3001\u300aEnergy Economics\u300b\u3001\u300aInternational Review of Financial Analysis\u300b\u3001\u300aJournal of Commodity Markets\u300b\u7b49\u671f\u520a\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u658720\u4f59\u7bc7\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4ee5\u7b2c\u4e00\/\u901a\u8baf\u4f5c\u8005\u8eab\u4efd\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u658718\u7bc7\uff1b\u4e3b\u6301\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u9752\u5e74\u9879\u76ee\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u535a\u58eb\u540e\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u9762\u4e0a\u9879\u76ee\u54041\u9879\uff1b\u62c5\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57dfSSCI\u671f\u520a\u300aInternational Review of Economics & Finance\u300b\u526f\u4e3b\u7f16\u3001\u4ea4\u53c9\u9886\u57dfSCI\u671f\u520a\u300aEntropy\u300b\u5ba2\u5ea7\u4e3b\u7f16\u3001\u4e2d\u6587\u6838\u5fc3\u671f\u520a\u300a\u897f\u90e8\u8bba\u575b\u300b\u3001ESCI\u671f\u520a\u300aResources, Environment and Sustainability\u300b\u9752\u5e74\u7f16\u59d4\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u5341\u4f59\u4e2a\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u671f\u520a\u5ba1\u7a3f\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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      \u8fd0\u884c\u6a21\u5f0f<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u4ece2025\u5e748\u67084\u65e5\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u4e00\u665a 19:00-21:00<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span>\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u9884\u8ba110\u5468\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u6309\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u6846\u67b6\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u8fdb\u884c\u7ebf\u4e0a\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e3b\u8bb2\u4eba\u7b49\u793e\u533a\u6210\u5458\u5f53\u9762\u4ea4\u6d41\uff0c\u4f1a\u540e\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u89c6\u9891\u56de\u653e\u6301\u7eed\u5b66\u4e60\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u62a5\u540d\u65b9\u5f0f<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a\u5fae\u4fe1\u626b\u7801\u586b\u5199\u62a5\u540d\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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      \u626b\u7801\u62a5\u540d\uff08\u53ef\u5f00\u53d1\u7968\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\uff1a\u586b\u5199\u4fe1\u606f\u540e\uff0c\u4ed8\u8d39\u62a5\u540d\u3002\u5982\u9700\u7528\u652f\u4ed8\u5b9d\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u8bf7\u5728PC\u7aef\u8fdb\u5165\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u9875\u9762\u62a5\u540d\u652f\u4ed8\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      https:\/\/pattern.swarma.org\/study_group\/66?from=wechat<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65\uff1a\u6dfb\u52a0\u8fd0\u8425\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\u5fae\u4fe1\uff0c\u62c9\u5165\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u793e\u533a\uff08\u5fae\u4fe1\u7fa4\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      PS\uff1a\u4e3a\u786e\u4fdd\u4e13\u4e1a\u6027\u548c\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u805a\u7126\uff0c\u672c\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u8c22\u7edd\u8131\u79bb\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u4e3b\u9898\u548c\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u7a7a\u6cdb\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u548c\u601d\u8fa8\u5f0f\u8ba8\u8bba\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u8ba8\u8bba\u5185\u5bb9\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u8981\u6c42\u3001\u7ecf\u63d0\u9192\u65e0\u6548\u8005\uff0c\u4f1a\u88ab\u79fb\u9664\u7fa4\u804a\u5e76\u5bf9\u672a\u53c2\u4e0e\u90e8\u5206\u9000\u8d39\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n


      <\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

      \u52a0\u5165\u793e\u533a\u540e\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5b8c\u6574\u6743\u9650\uff0c\u5305\u62ec<\/span><\/span>\u7ebf\u4e0a\u95ee\u7b54\u3001\u5f55\u64ad\u56de\u770b\u3001\u8d44\u6599\u5171\u4eab\u3001\u793e\u7fa4\u4ea4\u6d41\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u540c\u6b65\u3001\u5171\u521b\u4efb\u52a1\u83b7\u53d6\u79ef\u5206\u7b49<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u53c2\u4e0e\u5171\u521b\u4efb\u52a1\u83b7\u53d6\u79ef\u5206\uff0c\u5171\u5efa\u5b66\u672f\u793e\u533a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u91c7\u7528\u5171\u5b66\u5171\u7814\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u6210\u5458\u901a\u8fc7\u5185\u5bb9\u5171\u521b\u83b7\u79ef\u5206\uff08<\/span><\/span>\u5b57\u5e55\u4fee\u6539\u3001\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b14\u8bb0\u3001\u8bba\u6587\u901f\u9012\u3001\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u6587\u7ae0\u3001\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u3001\u8bba\u6587\u89e3\u8bfb\u7b49\u5171\u521b\u4efb\u52a1<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff09\uff0c\u79ef\u5206\u7b26\u5408\u6761\u4ef6\u5373\u53ef\u9000\u8d39\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      PS\uff1a\u5177\u4f53\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u52a0\u5165\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u540e\u67e5\u770b\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u5171\u521b\u4efb\u52a1\u5217\u8868\uff0c\u9886\u53d6\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4e0e\u8fd0\u8425\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\u6c9f\u901a\u8be6\u60c5\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u89e3\u91ca\u6743\u5f52\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u6240\u6709\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/span><\/h2>\n


      <\/span><\/h2>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \n
      <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n

      \u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u9605\u8bfb\u6750\u6599<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


      <\/span><\/h2>\n

      \u9605\u8bfb\u6750\u6599\u8f83\u957f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u9605\u8bfb\u4f53\u9a8c\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u60a8\u524d\u5f80\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u6c89\u6d78\u5f0f\u9605\u8bfb\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u6536\u85cf\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      https:\/\/pattern.swarma.org\/article\/367<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u9605\u8bfb\u6e05\u5355<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u6a21\u5757\u4e00\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u8868\u5f81\u7279\u5f81<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

      1\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

      \u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u5927\u8303\u7574\u5305\u62ec\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6269\u5c55\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u4f5c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8bfe\u9898\u3002\u9700\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u5404\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u589e\u8fdb\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5178\u578b\u7279\u5f81\uff1b\u63a2\u8ba8\u6d8c\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u8c61\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5fae\u89c2\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u673a\u5236\uff1b\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6e0a\u6e90\uff08\u5982\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3b\u8981\u8303\u5f0f\uff1b\u672a\u6765\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u548c\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. \n

        \u5e03\u83b1\u6069\u2022\u963f\u745f\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u6d59\u6c5f\u4eba\u6c11\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c2018.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      2. \n

        Hiroki Sayama, Introduction to the modeling and analysis of complex systems, Open SUNY Textbooks, Milne Library, 2015.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      3. \n

        Andrew W. Lo, Ruixun Zhang, The adaptive markets hypothesis: An evolutionary approach to understanding financial system dynamics\uff0cOxford University Press\uff0c2024.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      4. \n

        Robert L. Axtell\uff0cJ. Doyne Farmer\uff0cAgent-Based Modeling in Economics and Finance: Past, Present, and Future\uff0cJournal of Economic Literature, 2025, 63(1).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      5. \n

        Rama Cont. Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues. Quantitative Finance. 2001(1).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      6. \n

        David Colander, Hans F\u00f6llmer, Armin Haas, Michael Goldberg, Katarina Juselius, Alan Kirman, Thomas Lux, and Brigitte Sloth. The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics. Kiel Working Papers. 2009(6).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      7. \n

        Dirk Helbing, Alan Kirman. Rethinking economics using complexity theory. Real-World Economics Review. 2013(64).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      8. \n

        Battiston, Stefano, et al. “Complexity theory and financial regulation.” <\/span><\/span>Science<\/span><\/span><\/em> 351.6275 (2016): 818-819.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        2\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8868\u5f81\u4e0e\u6d4b\u5ea6<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n
        \u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u98ce\u9669\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6d4b\u5ea6<\/span><\/span><\/h5>\n

        \u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6e90\u5934\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u65e2\u5185\u751f\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u975e\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3001\u975e\u904d\u5386\u6027\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u5c42\u7ea7\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6e90\u4e8e\u653f\u7b56\u53d8\u52a8\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u51b2\u7a81\u7b49\u5916\u751f\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u501f\u52a9\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u95f4\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u5173\u8054\u3001\u8de8\u5e02\u573a\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u52a8\u53ca\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u5d4c\u5957\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u6269\u6563\uff0c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6469\u64e6\u7684 \u201c\u653e\u5927\u5668\u6548\u5e94\u201d\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u4ece\u4f17\u4f20\u5bfc\u7b49\u673a\u5236\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u5c40\u90e8\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6ce2\u52a8\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u8de8\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u4e14\u6781\u6613\u5347\u7ea7\u4e3a\u5a01\u80c1\u6574\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u968f\u7740\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u73af\u5883\u7b49\u5173\u8054\u65e5\u76ca\u7d27\u5bc6\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u5916\u90e8\u4ea4\u4e92\u6e20\u9053\u4e0d\u65ad\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6d4b\u5ea6\u65b9\u6cd5\u6301\u7eed\u6f14\u8fdb\uff0c\u4ece\u65e9\u671f\u5355\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u62d3\u5c55\u81f3\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a2a\u622a\u9762\u4fe1\u606f\u5dee\u5f02\u6027\u7684\u6d4b\u5ea6\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u5404\u7c7b\u5a92\u4f53\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\u5ea6\u91cf\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5927\u6570\u636e\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u6d4b\u5ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u9886\u57df\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9632\u8303\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u6301\u7eed\u6df1\u8015\u63a2\u7d22\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. \n

          Ludvigson, Sydney C., Sai Ma, and Serena Ng. “Uncertainty and business cycles: exogenous impulse or endogenous response?.” <\/span><\/span>American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics<\/span><\/span><\/em> 13.4 (2021): 369-410.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        2. \n

          \u9ec4\u5353, et al. “\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u2014\u2014\u57fa\u4e8e\u5927\u6570\u636e\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5.” <\/span><\/span>\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76<\/span><\/span><\/em> 461.11 (2018): 30-46.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        3. \n

          Baker, Scott R., Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis. “Measuring economic policy uncertainty.” <\/span><\/span>The quarterly journal of economics<\/span><\/span><\/em> 131.4 (2016): 1593-1636.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        4. \n

          Jurado, Kyle, Sydney C. Ludvigson, and Serena Ng. “Measuring uncertainty.” <\/span><\/span>American Economic Review<\/span><\/span><\/em> 105.3 (2015): 1177-1216.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        5. \n

          Bloom, Nicholas. “The impact of uncertainty shocks.” <\/span><\/span>econometrica<\/span><\/span><\/em> 77.3 (2009): 623-685.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          \u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u6d4b\u5ea6<\/span><\/span><\/h5>\n

          \u968f\u7740\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u65e5\u76ca\u590d\u6742\u4ee5\u53ca\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u5bfc\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u591a\u6837\u5316\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u6d4b\u5ea6\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ea6\u4e0d\u65ad\u6f14\u8fdb\u3002\u4ece\u6700\u521d\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u8d44\u4ea7\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u62d3\u5c55\u81f3\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u3001\u8de8\u5e02\u573a\u4e43\u81f3\u73af\u5883\u98ce\u9669\u7b49\u591a\u91cd\u7ef4\u5ea6\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ee5VaR\uff08Value at Risk\uff09\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5b9e\u52a1\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e2d\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5728\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u6b21\u53ef\u52a0\u6027\u53ca\u98ce\u9669\u5ea6\u91cf\u51fd\u6570\u51f8\u6027\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u5b58\u5728\u56fa\u6709\u5c40\u9650\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u4ee5\u9884\u671f\u635f\u5931\uff08Expected Shortfall, ES\uff09\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u7b26\u5408\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u516c\u7406\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u4ee5 CoVaR\u3001MES \u53ca SRISK \u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u6307\u6807\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u98ce\u9669\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ece\u9759\u6001\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fc8\u5411\u4e86\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u8bc6\u522b\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5171\u540c\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u80fd\u591f\u523b\u753b\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u538b\u529b\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u5411\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8d44\u672c\u7f3a\u53e3\u6f14\u5316\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u6d4b\u5ea6\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4e3a\u5b8f\u89c2\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cf\u5316\u652f\u6301\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u4e0d\u65ad\u878d\u5408\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u4ea4\u53c9\u5b66\u79d1\uff0c\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u57fa\u4e8e\u71b5\u7684\u5c0f\u6ce2VaR\u4f30\u8ba1\u3001EV-Copula-CoVaR\u6ea2\u51fa\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u51b2\u51fb\u7684CRISK\u6307\u6807\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6df1\u5316\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u5ea6\u91cf\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u5e94\u5bf9\u591a\u6e90\u98ce\u9669\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u4ecd\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u6301\u7eed\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

          \u4e3b\u9898\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

            \n
          1. \n

            \u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u6d4b\u5ea6\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u673a\u7406<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          2. \n

            \u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u6d4b\u5ea6\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6f14\u5316<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          3. \n

            \u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u878d\u5408\u4e0e\u65b0\u5174\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u6d4b\u5ea6\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u521b\u65b0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

            \uff081\uff09\u91cd\u8981\u7efc\u8ff0\u53ca\u4e66\u7c4d<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
            1. \n

              Abad P, Benito S, L\u00f3pez C. A comprehensive review of Value at Risk methodologies[J]. The Spanish Review of Financial Economics, 2014, 12(1): 15-32. \u6587\u7ae0\u7efc\u8ff0\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u4ef7\u503c\uff08VaR\uff09\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4ece\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u5230\u6539\u8fdb\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4f18\u7f3a\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            2. \n

              Ellis S, Sharma S, Brzeszczy\u0144ski J. Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges[J]. Journal of Financial Stability, 2022, 61: 100960. \u6587\u7ae0\u5bf94859\u7bc7\u6587\u732e\u6458\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7efc\u8ff0\uff0c\u5171\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e862000\u5e74\u540e\u63d0\u51fa\u768460\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u6d4b\u5ea6\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u7f3a\u9677\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            3. \n

              Pacelli V. Systemic Risk and Complex Networks in Modern Financial Systems[M]. Springer Nature, 2025. \u672c\u4e66\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u3001\u4f20\u64ad\u673a\u5236\u3001\u6d4b\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u548c\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u5982\u4f55\u52a0\u5267\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u67d3\u3002\u4e66\u4e2d\u7ed3\u5408\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u6570\u5b66\u548c\u6cd5\u5b66\u7b49\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u63a2\u8ba8\u5982\u4f55\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              \uff082\uff09\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u6d4b\u5ea6\u7ecf\u5178\u6587\u7ae0<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                \n
              1. \n

                Acerbi C, Nordio C, Sirtori C. Expected shortfall as a tool for financial risk management[J]. 2001. \u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u9884\u671f\u635f\u5931\uff08ES\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u4ef7\u503c\uff08VaR\uff09\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0cES\u7531\u4e8e\u6ee1\u8db3\u6b21\u53ef\u52a0\u6027\u7b49\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d\u66f4\u7b26\u5408\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5ea6\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              2. \n

                Adrian T, Brunnermeier M K. CoVaR[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011. \u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86CoVaR\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5728\u56f0\u5883\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u72b6\u6001\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u98ce\u9669\u4ef7\u503c\uff08VaR\uff09\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              3. \n

                Tobias A, Brunnermeier M K. CoVaR[J]. The American Economic Review, 2016, 106(7): 1705. CoVaR\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5ea6\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u25b3CoVaR\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5728\u56f0\u5883\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u98ce\u9669\u4ef7\u503c\uff08VaR\uff09\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u5355\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              4. \n

                Acharya V V, Pedersen L H, Philippon T, et al. Measuring systemic risk[J]. The Review of Financial Studies, 2017, 30(1): 2-47. \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u9884\u671f\u4e0d\u8db3\uff08SES\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51faSES\u4e0e\u673a\u6784\u6760\u6746\u53ca\u8fb9\u9645\u9884\u671f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff08MES\uff09\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              5. \n

                Brownlees C T, Engle R. Volatility, correlation and tails for systemic risk measurement[J]. Available at SSRN, 2012, 1611229. \u57fa\u4e8eES\u548cMES\uff08\u8fb9\u9645\u9884\u671f\u635f\u5931\uff09\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u8d44\u672c\u77ed\u7f3a\u548c\u8fb9\u9645\u9884\u671f\u635f\u5931\uff08MES\uff09\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u6d4b\u5ea6\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08SRISK\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u52a8\u6001\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8ba1\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\u65f6\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              6. \n

                Acharya V, Engle R, Richardson M. Capital shortfall: A new approach to ranking and regulating systemic risks[J]. American Economic Review, 2012, 102(3): 59-64. \u6539\u8fdbSRISK\u6d4b\u5ea6\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4f30\u8ba1\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5728\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u671f\u8d44\u672c\u7f3a\u53e3\uff08\u5373SRISK\uff09\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u7cfb\u7edf\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\uff08SIFIs\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              7. \n

                Brownlees C, Engle R F. SRISK: A conditional capital shortfall measure of systemic risk[J]. The Review of Financial Studies, 2017, 30(1): 48-79. \u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6539\u8fdb\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5ea6\u91cf\u6307\u6807SRISK\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u8861\u91cf\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5728\u4e25\u91cd\u5e02\u573a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7efc\u5408\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u673a\u6784\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u6760\u6746\u7387\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u6c34\u5e73<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                \uff083\uff09\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u6d4b\u5ea6\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u62d3\u5c55\u4e0e\u4ea4\u53c9\u5e94\u7528<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                  \n
                1. \n

                  He K, Wang L, Zou Y, et al. Value at risk estimation with entropy-based wavelet analysis in exchange markets[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2014, 408: 62-71. \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u71b5\u7684\u5c0f\u6ce2\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u6355\u6349\u591a\u7ef4\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u4fe1\u606f\u71b5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u5347VaR\u5728\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                2. \n

                  Billio, Monica, et al. An entropy-based early warning indicator for systemic risk. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 45 (2016): 42-59. \u6587\u7ae0\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u71b5\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u591a\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u548cGARCH\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e86\u71b5\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u9884\u8b66\u4e2d\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                3. \n

                  Zhao Y, Xu W. Measurement of risk spillover effect based on EV-Copula method[J]. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 2023, 10(1): 1-10. \u6587\u7ae0\u6784\u5efa\u4e86 EV-Copula-CoVaR \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u56fd\u78b3\u4ea4\u6613\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                4. \n

                  Jung H, Engle R F, Berner R. CRISK: measuring the climate risk exposure of the financial system[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2025, 171: 104076. \u672c\u6587\u63d0\u51fa CRISK \u8fd9\u4e00\u8861\u91cf\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u538b\u529b\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u9884\u671f\u8d44\u672c\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u501f\u9274SRISK\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5c06\u73af\u5883\u98ce\u9669\u5f15\u5165\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u6d4b\u5ea6\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e3a\u7eff\u8272\u91d1\u878d\u76d1\u7ba1\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cf\u5316\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n


                  <\/span><\/h3>\n

                  \u6a21\u5757\u4e8c\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0e\u6f14\u5316\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

                  1\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u89c6\u89d2 | \u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u7f51\u7edc\uff1a\u4f20\u67d3\u673a\u5236\u3001\u6f14\u5316\u89c4\u5f8b\u4e0e\u9632\u63a7\u7b56\u7565<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

                  \u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u67d3\u7cfb\u7edf\u7531\u5404\u56fd\u4e3b\u6743\u8282\u70b9\u901a\u8fc7\u8d38\u6613\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u7b49\u591a\u7ef4\u8fde\u63a5\u6784\u6210\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u5404\u56fd\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u5b58\u5728\u503a\u52a1\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\uff08\u7a33\u5b9a\u6001\uff09\u4e0e\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\uff08\u5931\u7a33\u6001\uff09\u4e24\u79cd\u5178\u578b\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u5730\u7f18\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\u7b49\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\u63a8\u52a8\u7f51\u7edc\u8d8a\u8fc7\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u89e6\u53d1\u4e3b\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u8de8\u56fd\u8de8\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u7126\u70b9\u5305\u62ec\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u6743\u4fe1\u7528\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e92\u6362(CDS)\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u8de8\u56fd\u8de8\u5e02\u573a\u4f20\u67d3\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u56fd\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u64ad\u4e2d\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u4e0e\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u5305\u62ec\u9ad8\u7ef4\u5411\u91cf\u81ea\u56de\u5f52(HD-VAR)\u3001\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u8fde\u901a\u6027\u5206\u6790\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5e73\u6ed1\u8f6c\u6362\u5411\u91cf\u81ea\u56de\u5f52(STVAR)\u7b49\u3002\u6838\u5fc3\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u56f4\u7ed5\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\u5c55\u5f00\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u64ad\u673a\u7406\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u7f51\u7edc\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u89c4\u5f8b\uff1b\u4e09\u662f\u5916\u90e8\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5904\u7f6e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0e\u5efa\u8bae\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u6743CDS\u7f51\u7edc\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u5730\u7406\u805a\u7c7b\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u67d3\u5448\u73b0\u663e\u8457\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u548c\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u671f\u95f4\u7f51\u7edc\u8fde\u901a\u6027\u6025\u5267\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u590d\u6742\u6027\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u6784\u5efa\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u76d1\u6d4b\u9884\u8b66\u4f53\u7cfb\u3001\u4f18\u5316\u56fd\u9645\u503a\u52a1\u6cbb\u7406\u673a\u5236\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                  \u4e3b\u9898\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                    \n
                  1. \n

                    \u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u64ad\u673a\u7406<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                  2. \n

                    \u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u7f51\u7edc\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u4e0e\u52a8\u6001\u6f14\u5316\u89c4\u5f8b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                  3. \n

                    \u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5904\u7f6e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0e\u5efa\u8bae<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                    \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                    \uff081\uff09\u91cd\u8981\u7efc\u8ff0<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                      \n
                    1. \n

                      Understanding country risk assessment: a historical review. <\/span><\/span>Xiaolei Sun, Qianqian Feng & Jianping Li<\/span><\/span><\/em>, Applied Economics (2021) \u7efc\u8ff0\u4e86\u56fd\u5bb6\u98ce\u9669\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u3001\u6982\u5ff5\u5185\u6db5\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u51fa\u56fd\u5bb6\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\uff1a\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u7840\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u57fa\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u591a\u6807\u51c6\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                    2. \n

                      Sun, Xiaolei, Yiran Shen, and Guowen Li. “Sovereign debt and sovereign risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis \u7efc\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e3b\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u7814\u7a76\u56db\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u9886\u57df\uff1a\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3001\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3001\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u95f4\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3b\u6743\u8bc4\u7ea7\u53ca\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6307\u51fa\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u5173\u6ce8\u4e0d\u540c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u4e3b\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u8054\u7b49\u91cd\u70b9\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                      \uff082\uff09\u4e3b\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u76f8\u5173\u8981\u7d20\u8bc6\u522b<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \n
                      1. \n

                        Klusak, Patrycja, et al. “Rising temperatures, falling ratings: The effect of climate change on sovereign creditworthiness.” Management Science 69.12 (2023): 7468-749. \u6784\u5efa\u9996\u4e2a\u6c14\u5019\u8c03\u6574\u4e3b\u6743\u4fe1\u7528\u8bc4\u7ea7\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u62df\u4e09\u79cd\u53d8\u6696\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b109\u56fd\u8bc4\u7ea7\u53d8\u5316.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      2. \n

                        Fulop, Andras, and Zalan Kocsis. “News indices on country fundamentals.” Journal of Banking & Finance 154 (2023): 106951 \u57fa\u4e8e\u6587\u672c\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u6784\u5efa\u4e03\u7c7b\u56fd\u5bb6\u57fa\u7840\u9762\u65b0\u95fb\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u6bd4\u4e3b\u6d41\u8bcd\u5178\u6cd5\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u6355\u6349\u5b8f\u89c2\u610f\u5916\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u5347\u548c\u4e3b\u6743\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u65b9\u5dee.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      3. \n

                        Deng, Minjie, and Chang Liu. “Sovereign risk and intangible investment.” Journal of International Economics 152 (2024): 104009. \u91cf\u5316\u4e3b\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u901a\u8fc7\u94f6\u884c\u6e20\u9053\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f01\u4e1a\u51cf\u5c11\u65e0\u5f62\u8d44\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u5e76\u8f6c\u5411\u6709\u5f62\u8d44\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u884c\u4e3a.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      4. \n

                        Augustin, Patrick, et al. “How sovereign is sovereign credit risk? Global prices, local quantities.” Journal of Monetary Economics 131 (2022): 92-111. \u5206\u6790\u4e3b\u6743\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4fdd\u9669\u5408\u540c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u4fdd\u9669\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u4ee5\u5171\u540c\u98ce\u9669\u4e3a\u4e3b\uff1b\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\u7279\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      5. \n

                        Della Corte, Pasquale, et al. “Exchange rates and sovereign risk.” Management Science 68.8 (2022): 5591-5617. \u63ed\u793a\u4e3b\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u9a71\u52a8\u6c47\u7387\u52a8\u6001\u53ca\u8d27\u5e01\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u7684\u6839\u672c\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u4e3b\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u5b9a\u4ef7\u56e0\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      6. \n

                        Bae, Joon Woo, and Redouane Elkamhi. “Global equity correlation in international markets.” Management Science 67.11 (2021): 7262-7289. \u5b9e\u8bc1\u63ed\u793a\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u7968\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5728\u4e3b\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e2d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4f5c\u7528<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      7. \n

                        Monfort, Alain, et al. “Affine modeling of credit risk, pricing of credit events, and contagion.” Management Science 67.6 (2021): 3674-3693. \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u79bb\u6563\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u4eff\u5c04\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u540c\u65f6\u5904\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u4fe1\u7528\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u5e76\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u4e3b\u6743\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      8. \n

                        \u5468\u8bda\u541b\u3001\u6d2a\u707f\u8f89\u3001\u6c6a\u6d69.\u201c\u6784\u5efa\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u91cd\u7ec4\u7684\u2018\u4e0a\u6d77\u6a21\u5f0f\u2019\u201d\u300a\u7ba1\u7406\u4e16\u754c\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c6\u671f\uff0c2021\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c87-98\u9875 \u5728\u6211\u56fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u503a\u6743\u4eba\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u4e25\u5cfb\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u56fd\u9645\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u91cd\u7ec4\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u6784\u5efa\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u89e3\u51b3\u673a\u5236\u7684\u201c\u4e0a\u6d77\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      9. \n

                        \u51af\u51ef\u3001\u738b\u948a\u3001\u674e\u8363\u6797. \u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u63f4\u52a9\u4e0e\u2018\u5168\u7403\u5357\u65b9\u2019\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u7406\u8bba\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8bc1\u636e\u201d\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c2\u671f\uff0c2025\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c3-43\u9875 \u57fa\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u8d1f\u503a\u884c\u4e3a\u7406\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u5916\u90e8\u63f4\u52a9\u5f71\u54cd\u53d7\u63f4\u56fd\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u6790\u4e2d\u56fd\u63f4\u52a9\u5bf9\u53d7\u63f4\u56fd\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0e\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      10. \n

                        \u9ec4\u6885\u6ce2\u3001\u5f20\u5b87\u5b81\u3001\u80e1\u6587\u701a. \u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u975e\u503a\u6743\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u53ca\u56fd\u9645\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u6cbb\u7406\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u6784\u5efa\u201d\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c2\u671f\uff0c2025\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c3-15\u9875 \u5206\u6790\u975e\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u503a\u52a1\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u91cd\u7ec4\u53ca\u51cf\u514d\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b9e\u8df5\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u6784\u5efa\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u6cbb\u7406\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      11. \n

                        \u674e\u96c5\u831c\u3001\u6768\u5b50\u6656\u3001\u6234\u5fd7\u9896. \u201c\u533a\u5236\u8f6c\u6362\u4e0b\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u4f20\u67d3\u7814\u7a76\u201d\u300a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5de5\u7a0b\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8df5\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c45\u5377\uff0c\u7b2c5\u671f\uff0c2025\u5e745\u6708\uff0c\u7b2c1528-1552\u9875 \u91c7\u7528\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5e73\u6ed1\u8f6c\u6362\u5411\u91cf\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u679016 \u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6 (\u5730\u533a) \u7684\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u67d3\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6355\u6349\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u65f6\u53d8\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                        \uff083\uff09\u4e3b\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u7f51\u7edc\u6784\u5efa<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                          \n
                        1. \n

                          Bostanci, Gorkem, and Kamil Yilmaz. “How connected is the global sovereign credit risk network?.” Journal of Banking & Finance 113 (2020): 105761. \u5c06Elastic Net\u4e0eDiebold-Yilmaz\u8fde\u901a\u6027\u6846\u67b6\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u6743\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u52a8\u6001\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                        2. \n

                          Le, Chau, David Dickinson, and Anh Le. “Sovereign risk spillovers: A network approach.” Journal of Financial Stability 60 (2022): 101006. \u8fd0\u7528\u9ad8\u7ef4VAR\u6784\u5efa\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u6743CDS\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u51fa\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7279\u5f81\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5bf9\u7f51\u7edc\u8fde\u63a5\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                        3. \n

                          Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew, Viet Hoang Nguyen, and Yongcheol Shin. “What is mine is yours: Sovereign risk transmission during the European debt crisis.” Journal of Financial Stability 65 (2023): 101103. \u7ed3\u5408\u6838\u5bc6\u5ea6\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u5316\u4e3b\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u53cc\u8fb9\u6ea2\u51fa\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u7279\u5f81.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                        4. \n

                          Ando, Tomohiro, Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo, and Yongcheol Shin. “Quantile connectedness: modeling tail behavior in the topology of financial networks.” Management Science 68.4 (2022): 2401-2431. \u63d0\u51fa\u7ed3\u5408\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u56de\u5f52\u4e0e\u56e0\u5b50\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5411\u91cf\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08QFVAR\uff09\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e3b\u6743\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u90e8\u95e8\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0b\u53cc\u5411\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u51fa\u7684\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u589e\u5f3a\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                          2\u3001\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c6\u89d2 | \u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7a81\u53d8<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

                          \u968f\u7740\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u6f14\u5316\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u53ca\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u9891\u7e41\u53d1\u751f\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7a81\u53d8\uff0c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7a81\u53d8\u5177\u6709\u7a81\u53d1\u6027\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u6027\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7279\u70b9\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u5e38\u56e0\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6982\u7387\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7a81\u53d8\u7684\u590d\u6742\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u673a\u5236\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e9f\u9700\u5f15\u5165\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u68c0\u6d4b\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7a81\u53d8\u70b9\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u751f\u6001\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u7b49\u81ea\u7136\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7a81\u53d8\u70b9\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e0a\u5df2\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u7279\u522b\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u4ecd\u9762\u4e34\u8bf8\u591a\u6311\u6218\u3002\u73b0\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u52a8\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u70b9\u68c0\u6d4b\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u4e9f\u9700\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u590d\u6742\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                          \u4e3b\u9898\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                            \n
                          1. \n

                            \u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7a81\u53d8\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u7efc\u8ff0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                          2. \n

                            \u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u7efc\u8ff0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                          3. \n

                            \u57fa\u4e8e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u68c0\u6d4b\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7a81\u53d8<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                            \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                              \n
                            1. \n

                              Hommes C H. Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems[J]. Quantitative Finance, 2001, 1(1): 149. \u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5e94\u89c6\u4e3a\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u8fdb\u5316\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4ee3\u7406\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                            2. \n

                              Hommes C H, Manzan S. Testing for nonlinear structure and chaos in economic time series[J]. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, 2006 (2006-030): 1. \u6587\u7ae0\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u6df7\u6c8c\u68c0\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8bc4\u8bba\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u566a\u58f0\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u6270\u52a8\u5bf9\u6df7\u6c8c\u68c0\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                            3. \n

                              Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock W A, et al. Early-warning signals for critical transitions[J]. Nature, 2009, 461(7260): 53-59. \u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5728\u4e34\u8fd1\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u65f6\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5982\u65b9\u5dee\u589e\u5927\u3001\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u53d8\u5316\u7b49\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u53f7\u9884\u6d4b\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u7b49\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                            4. \n

                              Scheffer M, Carpenter S R, Lenton T M, et al. Anticipating critical transitions[J]. science, 2012, 338(6105): 344-348. \u6587\u7ae0\u901a\u8fc7\u52a8\u6001\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u5173\u952e\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u7684\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u8bc6\u522b\u548c\u907f\u514d\u7cfb\u7edf\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                            5. \n

                              Farmer J D. Economics needs to treat the economy as a complex system[C]\/\/Paper for the INET conference \u2018rethinking economics and politics. 2012, 14. \u6587\u7ae0\u4e3b\u5f20\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5e94\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c6\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u52a0\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u6355\u6349\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u63a8\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                            6. \n

                              Hommes C. Behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems[M]. Cambridge University Press, 2013. \u672c\u4e66\u7cfb\u7edf\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u884c\u4e3a\u7406\u6027\u548c\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u9884\u671f\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u9884\u671f\u5f62\u6210\u673a\u5236\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u7ed3\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                            7. \n

                              Hommes C. Carl\u2019s nonlinear cobweb[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2018, 91: 7-20. \u6587\u7ae0\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u7f51\u72b6\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u9884\u671f\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u5b66\u4e60\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u7ed3\u5408\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u9002\u7528\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                            8. \n

                              Ma C, Tu Y. Group fused Lasso for large factor models with multiple structural breaks[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2023, 233(1): 132-154. \u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ec4\u878d\u5408Lasso\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u5927\u56e0\u5b50\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u591a\u4e2a\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u65ad\u88c2\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u548c\u9ad8\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u540c\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\u53d8\u91cf\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u65ad\u88c2\u70b9\u68c0\u6d4b\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                            9. \n

                              Ferey A, Lockwood B B, Taubinsky D. Sufficient statistics for nonlinear tax systems with general across-income heterogeneity[J]. American Economic Review, 2024, 114(10): 3206-3249. \u6587\u7ae0\u901a\u8fc7\u63a8\u5bfc\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7a0e\u5236\u7684\u5145\u8db3\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u6700\u4f18\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7a0e\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6821\u51c6\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                            10. \n

                              Dennis R. Using a hyperbolic cross to solve non-linear macroeconomic models[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2024, 163: 104860. \u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u53cc\u66f2\u4ea4\u53c9\u7684\u7a00\u758f\u7f51\u683c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u6c42\u89e3\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edfSmolyak\u65b9\u6cd5\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5728\u9ad8\u7ef4\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u6548\u7387\u548c\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                            11. \n

                              Axtell R L, Farmer J D. Agent-based modeling in economics and finance: Past, present, and future[J]. Journal of Economic Literature, 2025, 63(1): 197-287. \u6587\u7ae0\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ee3\u7406\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\uff08ABM\uff09\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86ABM\u5728\u653e\u5bbd\u4f20\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u5e76\u4e3a\u66f4\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u5efa\u6a21\u63d0\u4f9b\u7406\u8bba\u652f\u6301\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                              3\u3001\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c6\u89d2 | \u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u751f\u6001<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

                              J. Doyne Farmer \u7684\u201c\u5e02\u573a\u751f\u6001\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u662f\u5c06\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u591a\u6837\u5316\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u76f8\u4e92\u7ade\u4e89\u548c\u5171\u5b58\u6240\u6784\u6210\u7684\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u501f\u9274\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u7269\u79cd\u5171\u5b58\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08\u5982\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u3001\u6280\u672f\u5206\u6790\u8005\u3001\u5957\u5229\u8005\u7b49\uff09\u5982\u540c\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7269\u79cd\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3001\u9002\u5e94\u548c\u6f14\u5316\u3002Farmer \u5f3a\u8c03\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u975e\u603b\u662f\u8d8b\u4e8e\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\u3001\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7b49\u5b8f\u89c2\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u5fae\u89c2\u4e3b\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u96c6\u4f53\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u6311\u6218\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u201c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7406\u6027\u4eba\u201d\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u91c7\u7528\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u53cd\u9988\u3001\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u548c\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u5f62\u6210\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u751f\u6001\u7406\u8bba\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u6269\u6563\u3001\u7b56\u7565\u6f14\u5316\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u7a81\u53d1\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u76d1\u7ba1\u590d\u6742\u5e02\u573a\u7cfb\u7edf\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7406\u8bba\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                              \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                                \n
                              1. \n

                                Scholl, M. P., Calinescu, A., & Farmer, J. D. (2021). How market ecology explains market malfunction. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(26), Article e2015574118.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                              2. \n

                                Jackson, A., & Ladley, D. (2016). Market ecologies: The effect of information on the interaction and profitability of technical trading strategies. International Review of Financial Analysis, 47, 270-280.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                              3. \n

                                Lo, A. W. (2004). The adaptive markets hypothesis. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 30(5), 15-29.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                              4. \n

                                Farmer, J. D. (2002). Market force, ecology and evolution. Industrial and Corporate Change, 11(5), 895-953.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                              5. \n

                                Farmer, J. D., & Lo, A. W. (1999). Frontiers of finance: Evolution and efficient markets. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96(18), 9991-9992.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n


                                <\/span><\/h3>\n

                                \u6a21\u5757\u4e09\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u65b0\u8303\u5f0f<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

                                1\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c2\u4e0b\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u91d1\u878d<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

                                \u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u73b0\u4ee3\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u5bc6\u4e0d\u53ef\u5206\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u56e0\u6b64\u5e94\u8fd0\u800c\u751f\u3002\u5b8f\u89c2\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4ee5\u8d27\u5e01\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\u89c6\u89d2\u53bb\u7406\u89e3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8fd0\u884c\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u7ed9\u51fa\u5efa\u8bae\u3002\u5b83\u4ece\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u8fdb\u884c\u523b\u753b\uff0c\u4ee5\u5b58\u91cf\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u6d41\u91cf\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u5176\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u53ca\u5176\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u5230\u5b8f\u89c2\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u94fe\u6761\u3002\u4ee5\u6b64\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u5206\u6790\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u7b49\u91cd\u8981\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u751f\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                                \u94f6\u884c\u4f53\u7cfb\u8fd0\u884c\u4e0e\u94f6\u884c\u6324\u5151<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                                  \n
                                1. \n

                                  Diamond, D.W., Dybvig, P.H., 1983. Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity. Journal of political economy 91, 401\u2013419.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                2. \n

                                  Shleifer, A., Vishny, R.W., 2010. Unstable banking. Journal of financial economics 97, 306\u2013318.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                3. \n

                                  Werner, R.A., 2014. Can banks individually create money out of nothing?\u2014the theories and the empirical evidence. International Review of Financial Analysis 36, 1\u201319.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                4. \n

                                  Li, B., Wang, Y., 2020. Money creation within the macroeconomy: An integrated model of banking. International Review of Financial Analysis 71, 101547.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                5. \n

                                  Pozsar, Z., Adrian, T., Ashcraft, A., Boesky, H., 2010. Shadow banking. New York 458, 3\u20139.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                6. \n

                                  Brunnermeier, M.K., Sannikov, Y., 2016. The I theory of money. Technical Report. National Bureau of Economic Research.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                7. \n

                                  Baron, M., Verner, E., Xiong, W., 2021. Banking crises without panics. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 136, 51\u2013113.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                  \u503a\u52a1\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                                    \n
                                  1. \n

                                    Fisher, I., 1933. The debt-deflation theory of great depressions. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 337\u2013357.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                  2. \n

                                    Xing, X., Xiong, W., Guo, J., Wang, Y., 2021. The role of debt in aggregate demand. Finance Research Letters 39, 101653.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                  3. \n

                                    Mian, A., Straub, L., Suff, A., 2021. Indebted demand. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 136, 2243\u20132307.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                  4. \n

                                    Reinhart, C.M., Reinhart, V.R., Rogoff, K.S., 2012. Public debt overhangs: advanced-economy episodes since 1800. Journal of Economic Perspectives 26, 69\u201386.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                    \u7ecf\u5178\u8457\u4f5c<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                                      \n
                                    1. \n

                                      Fisher, I., 1932. Booms and Depressions, Adelphi Company New York.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                      Minsky, H.P., Kaufman, H., 2008. Stabilizing an unstable economy. volume 1. McGraw-Hill New York.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                          Romeil S. Sandhu, Tryphon T. Georgiou, and Allen R. Tannenbaum, <\/span><\/span><\/span>2016. Ricci curvature: An economic indicator for market fragility and systemic risk. Science Advances. 2, e1501495.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                          2\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8026\u5408<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

                                          \u5728\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u6cbb\u7406\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e92\u6784\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6c14\u5019-\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u5df2\u5f62\u6210\u5177\u6709\u590d\u6742\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u8026\u5408\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u63ed\u793a\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u7269\u7406\u51b2\u51fb\u901a\u8fc7\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4f20\u5bfc\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u91cd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u53ca\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u7a81\u53d8\u4e09\u7ef4\u6e20\u9053\u4ea7\u751f\u91d1\u878d\u4f20\u67d3\uff1b\u800c\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5b9a\u4ef7\u504f\u5dee\u3001\u671f\u9650\u9519\u914d\u53ca\u7f51\u7edc\u5173\u8054\u6027\u53c8\u53cd\u4f5c\u7528\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6f14\u8fdb\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u53cc\u5411\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\u50ac\u751f\u4e86\u201c\u6c14\u5019\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u201d\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u2014\u2014\u9700\u8981\u878d\u5408\u6c14\u5019\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4ee5\u7834\u89e3\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u4f20\u5bfc\u3001\u9608\u503c\u6548\u5e94\u53ca\u7ea7\u8054\u653e\u5927\u673a\u5236\u3002\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u79cd\u8026\u5408\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5bf9\u8861\u91cf\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\u53ca\u63a8\u52a8\u4f4e\u78b3\u8f6c\u578b\u5177\u6709\u5173\u952e\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                          \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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                                            Feng A, Li H, Wang Y. We are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Shocks through International Trade and Supply Chains[J]. Economic Journal, 2025, 135(669): 1433-1466.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                            \u9648\u56fd\u8fdb,\u5f90\u6653\u82b3,\u8d75\u5411\u7434.\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u51b2\u51fb\u5728\u751f\u4ea7-\u878d\u8d44\u7f51\u7edc\u5173\u8054\u4e2d\u7684\u4f20\u5bfc\u6548\u5e94\u7814\u7a76[J].\u7cfb\u7edf\u5de5\u7a0b\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8df5,2025,1-19.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                          9. \n

                                            \u6768\u5b50\u6656,\u9648\u96e8\u606c,\u6e29\u96ea\u83b2,\u7b49.\u6c14\u5019\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u5f71\u54cd\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u611f\u77e5\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u5bf9[J].\u4e2d\u56fd\u5de5\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e,2025,(04):5-22.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                            3\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u6cbb\u7406\u7b56\u7565<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

                                            \u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff08systemic risk\uff09\u662f\u6307\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u51fa\u73b0\u529f\u80fd\u5931\u6548\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5e7f\u4e49\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u7531\u4e2a\u4f53\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u901a\u8fc7\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5173\u8054\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u8513\u5ef6\u5e76\u653e\u5927\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u6784\u6210\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u5728\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u5b58\u5728\u5916\u90e8\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u906d\u53d7\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u51fa\u4e2a\u4f53\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u635f\u5931\u4e4b\u548c\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5371\u673a\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u67d3\uff08risk contagion\uff09\u548c\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\uff08multiple equilibria\uff09\u4e24\u79cd\u5f62\u6210\u673a\u5236\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u67d3\u673a\u5236\u662f\u6307\u67d0\u5bb6\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u629b\u552e\u6216\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u67af\u7aed\u901a\u8fc7\u91d1\u878d\u5173\u8054\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u4ed6\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u673a\u5236\u5219\u662f\u6307\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6216\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u4f53\u57fa\u4e8e\u60b2\u89c2\u9884\u671f\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f15\u53d1\u201c\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u9884\u8a00\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u521d\u59cb\u51b2\u51fb\u8f83\u5c0f\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u7cfb\u7edf\u9677\u5165\u5168\u9762\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5371\u673a\u6216\u4fe1\u7528\u51bb\u7ed3\u3002\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e24\u7c7b\u673a\u5236\u4e2d\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u5747\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8f7d\u4f53\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u901a\u8fc7\u540c\u4e1a\u62c6\u501f\u3001\u4ea4\u53c9\u6301\u80a1\u3001\u62b5\u62bc\u878d\u8d44\u7b49\u65b9\u5f0f\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u901a\u9053\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u4e2a\u4f53\u98ce\u9669\u5411\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u53d1\u751f\u6f14\u5316\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u4e0d\u900f\u660e\u6027\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5f97\u5728\u6050\u614c\u4e2d\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u89e6\u53d1\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece\u7f51\u7edc\u89c6\u89d2\u51fa\u53d1\u7814\u7a76\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5173\u8054\u7279\u5f81\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u67d3\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                            \u4e3b\u9898\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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                                              \u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                            2. \n

                                              \u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6551\u52a9\u7b56\u7565<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                              \u201c\u751f\u4ea7-\u94f6\u884c\u201d\u53cc\u5c42\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                              \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

                                              \u91cd\u8981\u7efc\u8ff0\u53ca\u4e66\u7c4d<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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                                                  Elliott M, Golub B, Jackson M O. Financial networks and contagion[J]. American Economic Review, 2014, 104(10): 3115-3153. \u5e26\u6709\u5931\u8d25\u6210\u672c\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7ea7\u8054\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u523b\u753b\u4e86\u4ea4\u53c9\u6301\u80a1\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u67d3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                                  Acemoglu D, Ozdaglar A, Siderius J, et al. Systemic credit freezes in financial lending networks[J]. Mathematics and Financial Economics, 2021, 15(1): 185-232. \u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5982\u4f55\u5bfc\u81f4\u201c\u4fe1\u7528\u51bb\u7ed3\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                                  Jackson M O, Pernoud A. Credit Freezes, Equilibrium Multiplicity, and Optimal Bailouts in Financial Networks[J]. The Review of Financial Studies, 2024, 37(7): 2017-2062. \u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u6700\u4f18\u6551\u52a9\u95ee\u9898\u662fNP\u96be\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5e76\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u4e0e\u6551\u52a9\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                                                7. \n

                                                  Klages-Mundt A, Minca A. Optimal intervention in economic networks using influence maximization methods[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2022, 300(3): 1136-1148. \u63d0\u51fa\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6551\u52a9\u7b56\u7565\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u9006\u5411\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7ea7\u8054\u8fc7\u7a0b\u201d\uff0c\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u6700\u5c0f\u5e72\u9884\u8def\u5f84\u4ee5\u963b\u65ad\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u5bfc\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

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                                                  1. \n

                                                    Wang H, Huang S. Risk contagion in production-bank bilayer networks[J]. Economics Letters, 2025, 248: 112211. \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u751f\u4ea7-\u94f6\u884c\u201d\u53cc\u5c42\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u5982\u4f55\u8f6c\u5316\u6210\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n


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                                                    \u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u662f\u9762\u5411\u5e7f\u5927\u79d1\u7814\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u7cfb\u5217\u8bba\u6587\u7814\u8bfb\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u5176\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5171\u540c\u6df1\u5165\u5b66\u4e60\u63a2\u8ba8\u67d0\u4e2a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u524d\u6cbf\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u79d1\u7814\u7075\u611f\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u79d1\u7814\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u79d1\u7814\u95e8\u69db\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                                    \u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u59cb\u4e8e 2008 \u5e74\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709 50 \u4f59\u4e2a\u4e3b\u9898\uff0c\u5185\u5bb9\u6db5\u76d6\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u8111\u4e0e\u610f\u8bc6\u3001\u751f\u547d\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u9ad8\u9636\u7f51\u7edc\u7b49\u3002\u51dd\u805a\u4e86\u4f17\u591a\u4f18\u79c0\u79d1\u7814\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u79d1\u7814\u5408\u4f5c\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5b75\u5316\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u79d1\u7814\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002\u5982\uff1a2013 \u5e74\u7684\u201c\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u201d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5b55\u80b2\u4e86\u5f69\u4e91\u5929\u6c14 APP\uff0c2015 \u5e74\u7684\u201c\u96c6\u4f53\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u6d41\u201d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4f17\u5305\u4e66\u7c4d\u300a\u8d70\u8fd12050\u300b\uff0c2020\u5e74\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5b55\u80b2\u4e86\u5168\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u793e\u533a\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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                                                    \u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6210\u7acb\u4e8e 2003 \u5e74\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ece\u4e8b\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u4eab\u53d7\u79d1\u5b66\u4e50\u8da3\u7684\u63a2\u7d22\u8005\u7684\u56e2\u4f53\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u56fd\u5185\u6700\u65e9\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u793e\u533a\u3002\u5b83\u5021\u5bfc\u4ee5\u5e73\u7b49\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u4ea4\u6d41\uff0c\u529b\u56fe\u642d\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684 \u201c \u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240 \u201d\u3002\u96c6\u667a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08\u6c11\u95f4\u975e\u8425\u5229\u4f01\u4e1a\uff09\u662f\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u7684\u8fd0\u8425\u4e3b\u4f53\uff0c\u5176\u4f7f\u547d\u4e3a\uff1a\u8425\u9020\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u63a2\u7d22\u5c0f\u751f\u5883\uff0c\u50ac\u5316\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u65b0\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                                    \u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6210\u7acb\u4e8e2016\u5e74\uff0c\u662f\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u5b55\u80b2\u7684\u521b\u4e1a\u56e2\u961f\u3002\u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u4f20\u64ad\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7b49\u524d\u6cbf\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u65b0\u5174\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u3001\u63a8\u52a8\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u63a2\u7d22\u4e0e\u751f\u6001\u6784\u5efa\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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                                                    \u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a <\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                                                    \u5bfc\u8bed \u5f53\u524d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u906d\u53d7\u591a\u91cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5982\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u52a0\u5267\u3001\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6469\u64e6\u53ca\u4fc4\u4e4c\u51b2\u7a81\u7b49\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8fbe\u5230\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u673a\u6784\u53ca\u5f02\u8d28\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u5173\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5448\u73b0\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u4e0e\u7f51\u7edc\u5316\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5e38\u5f15\u53d1\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002 \u6b63\u5982\u201c\u77e5\u5df1\u77e5\u5f7c\uff0c\u767e\u6218\u4e0d\u6b86\u201d\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u7cfb\u7edf\u63a2\u7a76\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u8bba…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":62072,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62092"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62092"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62092\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/62072"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62092"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=62092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}