{"id":62632,"date":"2025-07-24T19:23:22","date_gmt":"2025-07-24T11:23:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=62632"},"modified":"2025-07-24T19:23:22","modified_gmt":"2025-07-24T11:23:22","slug":"%e5%bd%93%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e9%81%87%e4%b8%8a%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%ef%bc%9a%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e7%9a%84%e5%ae%8f%e8%a7%82%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e6%95%88%e5%ba%94%e7%a0%94","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=62632","title":{"rendered":"\u5f53\u590d\u6742\u9047\u4e0a\u91d1\u878d\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u5e94\u7814\u7a76"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n

\u5bfc\u8bed<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n

\u9707\u60ca\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff08economic complexity\uff09\u6982\u5ff5\u5148\u540e\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u8fc1\u548c\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\uff08inequality\uff09\u7b49\u9886\u57df\uff1b\u800c\u672c\u6587\u5219\u9996\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5c06\u5176\u5f15\u5165\u5230\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u805a\u7126\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff08financial complexity\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\uff08agent-based\uff09\u5b8f\u89c2\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u9010\u6b65\u5f15\u5165\u5546\u4e1a\u7968\u636e\uff08commercial papers\uff09\u3001\u56fd\u503a\uff08bonds\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u4f18\u5148\u7ea7\u7684\u62c5\u4fdd\u503a\u52a1\u51ed\u8bc1\uff08Collateralized Debt Obligations\uff0cCDOs A \u4e0e CDOs B\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u523b\u753b\u91d1\u878d\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u590d\u6742\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u7a0b\u867d\u80fd\u4ee4\u8bc1\u5238\u5316\u8d37\u6b3e\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u201c\u96be\u4ee5\u89e3\u8bfb\u201d\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u901a\u8fc7\u673a\u6784\u4e0e\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u591a\u5c42\u4ea4\u4e92\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd8\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u538b\u529b\u7684\u6269\u6563\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\uff1a<\/span> \u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff08Financial complexity\uff09\uff0c\u8bc1\u5238\u5316\uff08Securitization\uff09\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff08Agent-based model\uff09\uff0c\u5b58\u91cf-\u6d41\u91cf\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\uff08Stock-flow consistency\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a<\/span>
<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\"\u56fe\u7247\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u5f6d\u6668<\/span>\u4e28\u4f5c\u8005<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u738b\u6cfd<\/span>\u4e28\u5ba1\u6821<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n
\n

\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aWhen complexity meets finance: A contribution to the study of the macroeconomic effects of complex financial systems<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0048733320300706<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u53d1\u8868\u65f6\u95f4\uff1a2022\u5e7410\u6708<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u6765\u6e90\uff1aResearch Policy<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n


<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5230\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7cfb\u662f\u7531\u4f17\u591a\u5f02\u8d28\u4e3b\u4f53\u901a\u8fc7\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\u4e0d\u65ad\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u800c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5219\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u4ea7\u54c1\u548c\u6280\u672f\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\u5982\u4f55\u9a71\u52a8\u4e0d\u540c\u53d1\u5c55\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u6b64\u89c6\u89d2\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u5f53\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u7a0b<\/span>\uff08financial engineering\uff09<\/span>\u901a\u8fc7\u8bc1\u5238\u5316<\/span>\uff08securitization\uff09<\/span>\u5c06\u8d37\u6b3e\u201c\u6253\u5305\u201d\u5e76\u5206\u5c42\u53d1\u884c\u4e3a\u62c5\u4fdd\u503a\u52a1\u51ed\u8bc1 CDOs A<\/span>\uff08senior tranche\uff09<\/span>\u4e0e\u62c5\u4fdd\u503a\u52a1\u51ed\u8bc1 CDOs B<\/span>\uff08junior tranche\uff09<\/span>\u65f6\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u4ea7\u54c1\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u8574\u542b\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u7531\u6b64\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u4f20\u7edf\u94f6\u884c\u2014\u4f01\u4e1a\u2014\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u878d\u8d44\u94fe\u6761\uff0c\u800c\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6db5\u76d6\u5546\u4e1a\u7968\u636e\u3001\u56fd\u503a\u4ee5\u53ca\u591a\u5c42 CDO \u7684\u591a\u5143\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u672c\u6587\u65e8\u5728\u63ed\u793a\u8fd9\u4e00\u6f14\u8fdb\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u6ce2\u52a8\u548c\u6536\u5165\u8d22\u5bcc\u5206\u914d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u56de\u987e\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u521b\u65b0\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u4ea4\u6c47<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u65e9\u5728 1934 \u5e74\uff0cSchumpeter \u4fbf\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u5bb6\u4e3a\u521b\u65b0\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u65b0\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u5b9e\u73b0\uff1b\u800c\u540e Levine<\/span>\uff081997, 2005\uff09<\/span>\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u53d1\u5c55\u53ef\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u5b9e\u4e1a\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u589e\u957f\u5f15\u64ce\u3002\u5371\u673a\u540e\uff0c\u660e\u65af\u57fa<\/span>\uff08Minsky\uff09<\/span>\u8b66\u793a\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u521b\u65b0\u5f80\u5f80\u5e26\u6765\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u201c\u7e41\u8363\u2014\u5d29\u6e83\u201d\u5faa\u73af\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5173\u6ce8 CDOs \u7b49\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5982\u4f55\u52a0\u5267\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5e95\u5c42\u8d44\u4ea7\u591a\u5143\u4e14\u4e0d\u900f\u660e\uff0c\u4f7f\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u653e\u5927\u98ce\u63a7\u76f2\u533a\uff0c\u635f\u5931\u5219\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u7f51\u7edc\u8fc5\u901f\u6269\u6563\u3002\u5df2\u6709\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u8bc1\u4f2a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4fe1\u8d56 CDOs A \u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6027\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5219\u4ece\u5b8f\u89c2\u6a21\u578b\u5c42\u9762\u586b\u8865\u4e86\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6574\u4f53\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u6a21\u578b\u6784\u5efa\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5b58\u91cf-\u6d41\u91cf\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u6846\u67b6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u517c\u987e\u5fae\u89c2\u5f02\u8d28\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u8d26\u6237\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u91c7\u7528\u6df7\u5408\u4e3b\u4f53<\/span>\uff08agent-based, AB\uff09<\/span>\u4e0e\u5b58\u91cf-\u6d41\u91cf\u4e00\u81f4<\/span>\uff08stock-flow consistent, SFC\uff09<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n