{"id":63263,"date":"2025-08-09T15:42:27","date_gmt":"2025-08-09T07:42:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=63263"},"modified":"2025-08-09T15:42:27","modified_gmt":"2025-08-09T07:42:27","slug":"%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e7%9a%84%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e6%80%a7%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e7%bb%bc%e8%bf%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=63263","title":{"rendered":"\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7efc\u8ff0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Matthew O. Jackson\u3001 Agathe Pernoud\u4e28\u4f5c\u8005<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aSystemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.annualreviews.org\/content\/journals\/10.1146\/annurev-economics-083120-111540<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u4ee5\u53ca\u5177\u6709\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u5982\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e00\u9879\u8270\u5de8\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u662f\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5728\u4fdd\u6301\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e92\u8054\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u76ca\u5904\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u5176\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6709\u5bb3\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u73cd\u59ae\u7279\u00b7\u8036\u4f26 (2013)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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1. \u5173\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u6027\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u53c2\u9605\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u8c03\u67e5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, 2011\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca Glasserman \u4e0e Young\uff082016\uff09\u548c Jackson\uff082019\uff09\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u8457\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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2. \u672c\u7efc\u8ff0\u5e76\u672a\u76f4\u63a5\u63a2\u8ba8\u91d1\u878d\u6ce1\u6cab\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u6b64\u5df2\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 Shiller\uff082015\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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3. \u5173\u4e8e\u66f4\u5e7f\u4e49\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7814\u7a76\u6587\u732e\u7efc\u8ff0\uff0c\u53ef\u53c2\u8003 Jackson\uff082008, 2019\uff09\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6587\u732e\u6700\u65e9\u7531 Summer\uff082013\uff09\u505a\u51fa\u7efc\u8ff0\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u5728\u672c\u7efc\u8ff0\u5404\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u5747\u6709\u5f15\u7528\u3002Jackson\uff082019\uff0c\u7b2c4\u7ae0\uff09\u8be6\u7ec6\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u5173\u952e\u7279\u5f81\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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2. \u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u7c7b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


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\u81ea\u6709\u6295\u8d44\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4fbf\u9891\u7e41\u53d1\u751f\uff1a\u4ece\u516c\u514333\u5e74\u63d0\u6bd4\u7565\u7687\u5e1d<\/span>\uff08Emperor Tiberius\uff09<\/span>\u65f6\u671f\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u5230\u62ff\u7834\u4ed1\u6218\u4e89\u671f\u95f4\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u591a\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u518d\u523019\u4e16\u7eaa\u6301\u7eed\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u6324\u5151\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u6050\u614c<\/span>\uff08Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u4e0e\u6f14\u5316\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u79cd\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u5176\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cc\u5c42\u5206\u7c7b\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7c7b\u522b\uff1a\uff08a\uff09\u901a\u8fc7\u76f4\u63a5\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u8fdd\u7ea6\u5bfc\u81f4\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e00\u5bb6\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u629b\u552e\u538b\u4f4e\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\uff09<\/span>\uff1b\uff08b\uff09\u7531\u4fe1\u5ff5\u53cd\u9988\u6548\u5e94\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u548c\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u6027\u9884\u671f\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u7c7b\u578b\u5185\u90e8\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7ec6\u5206\u5176\u5177\u4f53\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5728\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6b64\u5206\u7c7b\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u6765\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08financial network\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

2.1.  \u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\uff1f<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u673a\u6784\u4ee5\u591a\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u5f7c\u6b64\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u901a\u8fc7\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7ea6\u76f8\u4e92\u8fde\u63a5\uff1a\u5b83\u4eec\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e73\u6ed1\u5f02\u5e38\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u6ee1\u8db3\u5b58\u6b3e\u8981\u6c42\u800c\u76f8\u4e92\u501f\u8d37\uff1b\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\u4e2d\u534f\u4f5c\uff1b\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u6253\u5305\u4e0e\u518d\u9500\u552e\u5f62\u6210\u94fe\u5f0f\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u8fd9\u51e0\u7c7b\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5185\u5bb9<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cAllen & Gale 2000\uff1bEisenberg & Noe 2001\uff1bElliott \u7b49 2014\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u5171\u540c\u6027\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5176\u4ef7\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5448\u73b0\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u7f51\u7edc\u52a0\u4ee5\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e24\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u52a0\u6743\u8fde\u63a5\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027<\/span>\uff08Acharya & Yorulmazer, 2007; Allen et al., 2012; Diebold & Y\u0131lmaz, 2014; Cabrales et al., 2017\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u6709\u4e00\u6279\u6587\u732e\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5c06\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e0d\u540c\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u6574\u5408\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728 Heipertz et al.<\/span>\uff082019\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u573a\u5916\u4ea4\u6613\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u4ea4\u6613\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u901a\u8fc7\u5e02\u573a\u51fa\u6e05\u673a\u5236\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u53ef\u88ab\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd<\/span><\/span>\u7b80\u5316\u5f62\u5f0f<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff08reduced-form\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u6743\u76ca\u4ef7\u503c\u5173\u7cfb\u7f51\u7edc\uff1a\u8282\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u52a0\u6743\u8fb9\u8868\u793ai<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5bf9j<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u4ef7\u683c\u8c03\u6574\u6240\u8bf1\u53d1\u7684\u6b21\u751f\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u5f62\u5f0f\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u6240\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\u91d1\u878d\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8861\u91cf\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6574\u5408\u73b0\u6709\u6587\u732e\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u8be5\u6846\u67b6\u5141\u8bb8\u6211\u4eec\u533a\u5206\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u57fa\u672c\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u8bbe<\/span><\/span>N = {1, 2, …, n}<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u4e00\u7ec4\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u79f0\u4f5c\u94f6\u884c<\/span>\uff08banks\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u5e94\u5e7f\u4e49\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u884c\u4e3a\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u4ed6\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5355\u4f4d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u77e9\u9635<\/span><\/span>G = (g<\/span><\/span>ij<\/span><\/sub>)<\/span><\/span>ij<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>g<\/span><\/span>ij<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span>\u6355\u6349\u4e86\u94f6\u884ci<\/span><\/span>\u4e0e\u94f6\u884cj<\/span><\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fde\u63a5<\/span><\/span>g<\/span><\/span>ij<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span>\u53ef\u4ee5\u5305\u542b\u591a\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4ee3\u8868\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5951\u7ea6\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u591a\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u65e2\u6709\u503a\u52a1\u5173\u7cfb\u3001\u4e5f\u6709\u80a1\u6743\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u91d1\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u6216\u91d1\u878d\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u3002<\/span><\/span>4<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u6bcf\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5411\u91cf<\/span><\/span>V = (V<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/sub>)<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u8be5\u5411\u91cf\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u8d44\u4ea7\u3001\u8d1f\u503a\u3001\u6f5c\u5728\u8fdd\u7ea6\u53ca\u7834\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u7b49\u6240\u6709\u8d22\u52a1\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u67d0\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0a\uff0c\u94f6\u884ci<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e8e\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531n<\/span><\/span>\u4e2a\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\u6210\u3001\u542bn<\/span><\/span>\u4e2a\u672a\u77e5\u6570\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5f53\u51fd\u6570<\/span><\/span>F(\u00b7\uff5cG)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5728V<\/span><\/span>\u4e0a\u662f<\/span><\/span>\u5355\u8c03\u4e0d\u51cf\u4e14\u6709\u754c\u65f6<\/span><\/span>5<\/span><\/sup><\/span>\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u5854\u5c14\u65af\u57fa\u4e0d\u52a8\u70b9\u5b9a\u7406\uff08Tarski’s fixed point theorem\uff09\uff0c\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\u89e3<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u6709\u673a\u6784\u4ef7\u503c\u76f8\u4e92\u4e00\u81f4\u3001\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e0a\u5f0f\u7684\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u5747\u8861\u201d\u6307\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4f1a\u8ba1\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u89e3\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u610f\u4e49\u4e0b\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5747\u8861\u6216\u67d0\u79cd\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7a33\u6001\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5747\u8861\u89e3\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u6b62\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u6784\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u683c<\/span>\uff08complete lattice\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a<\/span><\/span>\u6700\u4f18\u5747\u8861\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u5dee\u5747\u8861<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u4ee3\u8868\u6240\u6709\u673a\u6784\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4e0e\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/span>6<\/span><\/sup><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u533a\u5206\u7531\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u95f4\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \n

    \u7b2c\u4e00\u7c7b\u662f\u4f20\u67d3\u5f0f\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5373\u5f53\u67d0\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u5e76\u7ee7\u7eed\u5411\u5176\u8fde\u63a5\u5bf9\u8c61\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u5176\u6548\u5e94\u901a\u8fc7<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    \u7b2c\u4e8c\u7c7b\u662f\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u4e0e\u4fe1\u5ff5\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5373\u5373\u4fbf\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u5e02\u573a\u4fe1\u5ff5\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u8df3\u8f6c\u81f3\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u5728\u4fdd\u6301\u5747\u8861\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u53d8\u5316\u5982\u4f55\u5f15\u53d1\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4f20\u5bfc\uff1b\u800c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7c7b\u98ce\u9669\u5219\u5173\u6ce8\u5728\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u7531\u4fe1\u5ff5\u53d8\u5316\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u5747\u8861\u5207\u6362\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u7c7b\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u7531\u5b9e\u9645\u51b2\u51fb\u89e6\u53d1\uff1b\u800c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7c7b\u5747\u8861\u8f6c\u6362\u6240\u53d7\u7684\u89e6\u53d1\u56e0\u7d20\u5219\u66f4\u4e3a\u6a21\u7cca<\/span><\/span>7<\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u3002\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u6362\u5f80\u5f80\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u5e02\u573a\u51bb\u7ed3\uff08market freeze\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5176\u6839\u6e90\u662f\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u4fe1\u7528\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7ae0\u8282\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u7075\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n

    <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n

    \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    4. \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8be5\u7f51\u7edc\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u591a\u91cd\u56fe\uff08multigraph\uff09\uff1b\u6216\u8005\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u591a\u5c42\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\uff08multiplexed network\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u5305\u542b\u591a\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u5c42\u7ea7\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 Bardoscia \u7b49\u4eba\uff082017\uff09\u5728\u5bf9\u82f1\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5c31\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u4ea4\u4e92\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    5. \u5373\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u6240\u6709i<\/span><\/span>\u90fd\u6709<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u6709<\/span><\/span>F(V’ | G) \u2265 F(V | G)<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u884c\u7684V<\/span><\/span>\u503c\u96c6\u5408\u5b58\u5728\u4e0a\u4e0b\u754c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    6. \u6700\u4f18\u4e0e\u6700\u52a3\u5747\u8861\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u6c42\u5f97\uff1a\u4ece\u6700\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u503c <\/span><\/span>V<\/span><\/span>max<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span>\uff08\u6216\u6700\u5c0f\u503c\u7528\u4e8e\u5bfb\u627e\u6700\u52a3\u5747\u8861\uff09\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u53cd\u590d\u8fed\u4ee3\u51fd\u6570F<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u91d1\u878d\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fed\u4ee3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6536\u655b\u901f\u5ea6\u5f88\u5feb\uff08\u53c2\u89c1 Eisenberg & Noe, 2001\uff1bJackson & Pernoud, 2020\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5e95\u5c42\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7740\u65b9\u7a0b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u66f4\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u6216\u4efb\u610f\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u65f6\uff0c\u627e\u5230\u5747\u8861\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6162\u5f97\u591a\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u53c2\u89c1 Etessami \u7b49\u4eba\uff0c2019\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    7. \u8fd9\u4e24\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u533a\u5206\u4ee4\u4eba\u8054\u60f3\u5230\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u5173\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u7ecf\u5178\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u89c6\u89d2\u4e0e\u6050\u614c\u89c6\u89d2\uff08Allen & Gale, 2007\uff09\u3002\u5728\u524d\u8005\u4e2d\uff0c\u5371\u673a\u6e90\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff1b\u800c\u5728\u540e\u8005\u4e2d\uff0c\u5371\u673a\u5219\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff08self-fulfilling prophecy\uff09\uff0c\u4ec5\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u89e6\u53d1\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


    <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    2.2 \u901a\u8fc7\u7f51\u7edc\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u5f0f\u4f20\u64ad<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

    \u672c\u8282\u5c06\u63a2\u8ba8\u901a\u8fc7<\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u624b\u98ce\u9669\uff08counterparty risk\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u548c<\/span><\/span>\u8d44\u4ea7\u655e\u53e3\u5171\u540c\u6027\uff08commonality in exposures\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u9020\u6210\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    2.2.1 \u8fde\u9501\u8fdd\u7ea6<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

    \u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5178\u578b\u5f62\u5f0f\u662f\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u56e0\u6295\u8d44\u6536\u76ca\u4e0d\u4f73\u65e0\u6cd5\u507f\u8fd8\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4f1a\u635f\u5bb3\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u540e\u8005\u4e5f\u53d1\u751f\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u968f\u7740\u66f4\u591a\u673a\u6784\u7834\u4ea7\uff0c\u5176\u5b83\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe 1:\u94f6\u884cj<\/span><\/span>\u6b20\u94f6\u884ci<\/span><\/span>\u4e00\u7b14\u91d1\u989d\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>g<\/span><\/span>ij<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u5982\u56fe1\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u4e24\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>g<\/span><\/span>ij<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u94f6\u884cj<\/span><\/span>\u6b20\u94f6\u884ci<\/span><\/span>\u4e00\u7b14\u503a\u52a1<\/span><\/span>D<\/span><\/span>ij<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u7bad\u5934\u8868\u793a\u4ef7\u503c\u5e94\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4<\/span><\/span>g<\/span><\/span>ij <\/span><\/sub>= D<\/span><\/span>ij<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5408\u7ea6\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u8d26\u9762\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0a\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u5373\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/section>\n

    \u5176\u4e2d\u03c0<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u662f\u94f6\u884ci<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u503c<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u4e0d\u6d89\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7<\/span><\/span>8<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\uff0c\u5982\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d37\u6b3e\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u800c<\/span><\/span>d<\/span><\/span>ij<\/span><\/sub>(V)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u662f\u94f6\u884cj<\/span><\/span>\u80fd\u591f\u652f\u4ed8\u7ed9i<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u91d1\u989d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u5728\u6709\u9650\u8d23\u4efb<\/span>\uff08limited liability\uff09<\/span>\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u507f\u8fd8\u91d1\u989d\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/section>\n

    \u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u8868\u793a\u94f6\u884cj<\/span><\/span>\u6240\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u603b\u8d44\u4ea7\uff1b\u5176\u652f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u4f1a\u6309\u503a\u6743\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5728\u5404\u503a\u6743\u4eba\u95f4\u5206\u914d\u3002\u8be5\u51fd\u6570\u53ef\u6839\u636e\u5b9e\u9645\u503a\u52a1\u4f18\u5148\u7ea7\u7ed3\u6784\u6269\u5c55\u4e3a\u5d4c\u5957\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u4e3a\u8bf4\u660e\u7f51\u7edc\u4f9d\u8d56\u5982\u4f55\u5f15\u53d1\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8bbe<\/span><\/span>D<\/span><\/span>ij<\/span><\/sub> = 1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u4e14\u03c0<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/sub> = 0.5<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u82e5\u94f6\u884cj<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ece \u03c0<\/span><\/span>j<\/span><\/sub> = 1.5<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\uff0c\u94f6\u884ci<\/span><\/span>\u548cj<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u4ef7\u503c\u5206\u522b\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>V<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/sub> = 1.5<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u548c<\/span><\/span>V<\/span><\/span>j<\/span><\/sub> = 0.5<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e0b\u964d\u540e\u53d8\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>V<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/sub> = 1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c<\/span><\/span>V<\/span><\/span>j<\/span><\/sub> = -0.5<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff08\u6839\u636e\u6709\u9650\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u5b9e\u4e3a 0\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u51b2\u51fb\u6e90\u4e8ej<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u94f6\u884ci<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u5982\u679ci<\/span><\/span>\u4e5f\u6709\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u5219\u5176\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u964d\u800c\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u9700\u8981\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u8003\u8651\u7834\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u65f6\uff0c\u6b64\u7c7b\u8fdd\u7ea6\u98ce\u9669\u7ea7\u8054\u4f20\u64ad\u4ec5\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ef7\u503c\u5728\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u672a\u589e\u52a0\u603b\u635f\u5931\u3002\u4f46\u4e00\u65e6\u8003\u8651\u7834\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5982 0.5 \u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u7834\u4ea7\u8d39\u7528\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5c06\u662f<\/span><\/span>V<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/sub> = 0.5<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>, <\/span><\/span>V<\/span><\/span>j<\/span><\/sub> = -1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u6bcf\u6b21\u65b0\u589e\u8fdd\u7ea6\u90fd\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u51c0\u635f\u5931<\/span>\uff08deadweight loss\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u8d44\u4ea7\u7f29\u6c34\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u670d\u52a1\u4e5f\u968f\u4e4b\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u8fde\u9501\u8fdd\u7ea6\u673a\u5236\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u62ec Rochet \u548c Tirole<\/span>\uff081996\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca Allen \u548c Gale<\/span>\uff082000\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u50a8\u6237\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cAllen \u548c Gale<\/span>\uff082000\uff09<\/span>\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u9762\u4e34\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u51b2\u51fb<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u975e\u9884\u671f\u63d0\u6b3e\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5bf9\u51b2\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4f1a\u4e8b\u5148\u76f8\u4e92\u4ea4\u6362\u90e8\u5206\u5b58\u6b3e\u3002\u5728\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u603b\u4f53\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u503a\u6743\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u4ea4\u53c9\u5b58\u6b3e\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u6700\u4f18\u914d\u7f6e\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8f6c\u79fb\u7ed9\u90a3\u4e9b\u77ed\u671f\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u540c\u884c\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ea4\u53c9\u6301\u6709\u7684\u503a\u6743\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u8fde\u63a5\u4e0d\u8db3\u6216\u906d\u9047\u96c6\u4f53\u51b2\u51fb\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0e\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u62bd\u53d6\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u540e\u4e00\u5bb6\u4e5f\u9762\u4e34\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u67af\u7aed\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f15\u53d1<\/span><\/span>\u8fde\u9501\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff08cascades of defaults\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    Eisenberg \u548c Noe<\/span>\uff082001\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u503a\u52a1\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u5747\u8861\u652f\u4ed8\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u8be5\u7b97\u6cd5\u8ddf\u8e2a\u8fdd\u7ea6\u94fe\u6761\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u4e0d\u518d\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u88ab\u8bf1\u53d1\u4e3a\u6b62\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6269\u5c55\u4e86\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u9664\u503a\u52a1\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u91d1\u878d\u5951\u7ea6\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u80a1\u6743<\/span>\uff08equity\uff09<\/span>\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08Elliott et al. 2014\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u94f6\u884c\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e5f\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u8054\u52a8\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/span>9<\/span><\/sup><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u4e3e\u4f8b\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u635f\u5bb3\u5176\u80a1\u4e1c\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4f20\u5bfc\u81f3\u66f4\u4e0a\u5c42\u7684\u80a1\u4e1c\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u591a\u5c42\u5d4c\u5957\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u732e\u5df2\u5c06\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u503a\u52a1\u4e0e\u80a1\u6743\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08\u5982 Jackson & Pernoud, 2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u201c\u7c7b\u80a1\u6743\u201d\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u503a\u52a1\u5408\u7ea6\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u673a\u5236\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u672a\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u4ed6\u884c\u9020\u6210\u95f4\u63a5\u635f\u5931\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u94f6\u884c 1 \u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u964d<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u4fbf\u672a\u7834\u4ea7\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u82e5\u94f6\u884c 2 \u6301\u6709\u94f6\u884c 1 \u7684\u80a1\u4efd\uff0c\u5176\u51c0\u503c\u4ea6\u4f1a\u53d7\u635f\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u8fc7\u4f4e\u800c\u89e6\u53d1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u94f6\u884c 2 \u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u5df2\u56e0\u6301\u6709\u94f6\u884c 1 \u7684\u80a1\u6743\u800c\u5904\u4e8e\u8106\u5f31\u72b6\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u8bf1\u53d1\u5176\u7834\u4ea7\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6ce2\u53ca\u5176\u503a\u6743\u4eba\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u80a1\u6743\u8d2c\u503c + \u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6 + \u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u91cd\u53e0\u7684\u4e09\u91cd\u673a\u5236\u5c06\u6784\u6210\u9ad8\u5ea6\u590d\u6742\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u80a1\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4ee5\u53ca\u5171\u540c\u8d44\u4ea7\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u53e0\u52a0\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5171\u540c\u5f15\u53d1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u8fd9\u79cd\u4f4e\u6548\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6027\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f71\u54cd\u81ea\u8eab\uff0c\u8fd8\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u5bf9\u624b\u65b9\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u548c\u503a\u52a1\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5916\u90e8\u5f71\u54cd\u5f80\u5f80\u65e0\u6cd5\u88ab\u5b8c\u5168\u5bf9\u51b2\u6216\u4fdd\u9669\u3002\u9700\u8981\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u673a\u6784\u95f4\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u8f6c\u79fb\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u65e6\u8fdd\u7ea6\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u7834\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u3001\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u67af\u7aed\u3001\u4fe1\u4efb\u5d29\u6e83\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4<\/span><\/span>\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\uff08real economic costs\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5e76\u663e\u8457\u653e\u5927\u521d\u59cb\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u7834\u574f\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
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    \n
    \n
    \n

    <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
    \n
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    \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    8. \u8fd9\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u6d89\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u3001\u5bf9\u975e\u91d1\u878d\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    9. \u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7c7b\u4f3c\u80a1\u6743\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u4ea4\u53c9\u6301\u80a1\u5173\u7cfb\uff08equity-like cross-holdings\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u57fa\u91d1\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u65e5\u76ca\u666e\u904d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4ea4\u53c9\u6301\u80a1\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u6e90\uff08Fricke & Wilke\uff0c2020\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


    <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    2.2.2 \u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3001\u7d27\u6025\u629b\u552e\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5171\u540c\u655e\u53e3<\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

    \u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u5f62\u5f0f\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e2d\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u3002\u5f53\u4e00\u95f4\u94f6\u884c\u9677\u5165\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u65f6\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u524d\u51fa\u552e\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u8c13\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u7d27\u6025\u629b<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u552e\uff08fire sales\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u8d44\u4ea7\u629b\u552e\u4f1a\u538b\u4f4e\u76f8\u5173\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u51cf\u5c11\u5176\u4ed6\u6301\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u4e5f\u53d1\u751f\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u629b\u552e\u884c\u4e3a\u5f15\u5165\u4e00\u573a<\/span><\/span>\u5411\u4e0b\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u7684\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\uff08downward spiral\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff08Kiyotaki & Moore 1997\uff1bCifuentes \u7b49\uff0c2005\uff1bGai & Kapadia\uff0c2010\uff1bCapponi & Larsson\uff0c2015\uff1bGreenwood \u7b49\uff0c2015\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5f53\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4<\/span><\/span>\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff08correlated portfolios\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u8f83\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5c24\u5176\u4e25\u91cd\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u6784\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4f7f\u591a\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u76f8\u4f3c\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\u7d27\u6025\u629b\u552e\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u7d27\u6025\u629b\u552e\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u591a\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u6027<\/span>\uff08market imperfections\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u4e0d\u5f15\u8d77\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5438\u6536\u5927\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6e05\u7b97\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728<\/span><\/span>\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\uff08asymmetric information\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8d44\u4ea7\u51fa\u552e\u884c\u4e3a\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5e95\u5c42\u8d44\u4ea7\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4ea7\u751f\u8d1f\u9762\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u653e\u5927\u521d\u59cb\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ee5\u5e02\u4ef7\u8ba1\u91cf\uff0c\u4e14\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u663e\u8457\u3001\u5927\u578b\u673a\u6784\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u673a\u5236\uff08price-based contagion\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5267\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4<\/span><\/span>\u4e09\u5c42\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff08three-level interaction\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \n

      \u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7531\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u9677\u5165\u8106\u5f31\u72b6\u6001\u6216\u6fd2\u4e34\u7834\u4ea7\uff1b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    2. \n

      \u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u5bb6\u88ab\u8feb\u51fa\u552e\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5176\u4ef7\u683c\u6548\u5e94\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\uff1b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    3. \n

      \u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6b64\u540e\u4e00\u5bb6\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e8e\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u524d\u8ff0\u4e24\u6b65\u9020\u6210\u7684\u8d22\u52a1\u56f0\u5883\u800c\u7834\u4ea7\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \u7efc\u5408\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u5f71\u54cd\u3001\u5171\u540c\u655e\u53e3\u3001\u6216\u4ef7\u683c\u51b2\u51fb\u672c\u8eab\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5f15\u53d1\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\u8054\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u89e6\u53d1\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cCifuentes \u7b49<\/span>\uff082005\uff09<\/span>\u548c Gai & Kapadia<\/span>\uff082010\uff09<\/span>\u901a\u8fc7\u4eff\u771f\u5206\u6790\u8868\u660e\uff1a\u5bf9\u624b\u98ce\u9669\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7d27\u6025\u629b\u552e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u5927\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u8054\u7cfb\uff1a\uff08a\uff09\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u4e49\u52a1<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u8d37\u6b3e\u3001\u503a\u52a1\uff09<\/span>\uff1b\uff08b\uff09\u4ef7\u683c\u6548\u5e94\u2014\u2014\u5f53\u94f6\u884c\u88ab\u8feb\u51cf\u6301\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u65f6\u89e6\u53d1\u7684\u95f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5176\u5bc6\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08density\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u4f20\u67d3\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/span>10<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u53ea\u662f\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002\u5df2\u6709\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u8d8a\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u6210\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u8d8a\u9ad8<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff08Elliott \u7b49\uff0c2018\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u91d1\u878d\u4e49\u52a1\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u6027\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u8d44\u4ea7\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      10. \u4e3a\u4e86\u7b80\u5316\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u90fd\u5047\u8bbe\uff1a\u5f53\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u88ab\u8feb\u7a81\u7136\u51fa\u552e\u8d44\u4ea7\u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u9020\u6210\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u5728\u6240\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0b\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u8fd9\u4e24\u7c7b\u7f51\u7edc\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u4f20\u67d3\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4ecd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      2.2.3. \u95f4\u63a5\u63a8\u65ad<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u5171\u540c\u6027\u4e3a\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u94fa\u5e73\u4e86\u9053\u8def\uff1a\u201c\u56e0\u76f8\u4f3c\u800c\u53d7\u7275\u8fde\u201d\u3002\u5f53\u4e00\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u4e0e\u5176\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u4ea7\u751f\u6000\u7591<\/span><\/span>11<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u3002\u4f7f\u6b64\u7c7b\u4f20\u67d3\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u8981\u7d20\uff1a<\/span><\/span>(a) <\/span><\/span><\/span>\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff1b<\/span><\/span>(b) <\/span><\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\/\u6216\u94f6\u884c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u4e3a\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u8003\u8651 <\/span><\/span>k = 1,\u2026 ,K<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u79cd\u539f\u59cb\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5176\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684<\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span>k<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5b8c\u5168\u7531\u5b83\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e2d\u7684\u6295\u8d44 <\/span><\/span>q<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/sub> = (q<\/span><\/span>ik<\/span><\/sub>)<\/span><\/span>k<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u6765\u523b\u753b\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u9694\u79bb\u63a8\u65ad\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5408\u540c\u5173\u7cfb\uff1a\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u4ef7\u503c\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u8d44\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c<\/span>\uff08\u65e0\u5411\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u6355\u6349\u7684\u662f\u8d44\u4ea7\u6301\u6709\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u5373<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e0d\u540c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4ef7\u503c\u6216\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u2014\u2014\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9 <\/span><\/span>q<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span> \u6216 <\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span>k<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span> \u6216\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u2014\u2014\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c\u4ecd\u7136\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u6ee1\u8db3<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \u518d\u6b21\u8003\u8651\u4e4b\u524d\u56fe1\u4e2d\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5e76\u5047\u8bbe\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u5916\u90e8\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5176\u6536\u76ca\u5206\u522b\u4e3a <\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span>A<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span> \u548c <\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span>B<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u94f6\u884c2\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u90fd\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u8d44\u4ea7A<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u94f6\u884c1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u914d\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6240\u77e5\u3002\u4e8b\u524d\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u989d\u5916\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5c31\u7b49\u4e8e\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u65e0\u6761\u4ef6\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u73b0\u5728\u5047\u8bbe\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u94f6\u884c1\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5c06\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5373\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u8d44\u4ea7\u6301\u6709\u4e0a\u7684\u91cd\u53e0\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e5f\u5e94\u66f4\u65b0\u5bf9\u94f6\u884c2\u7684\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u53d8\u4e3a  \uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \u4f5c\u4e3a\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u5df2\u77e5 <\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span>A<\/span><\/sub> = 0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u548c <\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span>B<\/span><\/sub> = 1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5219\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u6301\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u2014\u2014\u5373\u4ed6\u4eec\u77e5\u9053 <\/span><\/span>q<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/sub> = q<\/span><\/span>2<\/span><\/sub><\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5177\u4f53\u6570\u503c\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u770b\u5230 <\/span><\/span>V<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/sub> = 0.5<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u63a8\u65ad <\/span><\/span>V<\/span><\/span>2<\/span><\/sub> = 0.5<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u57fa\u4e8e\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\uff08inference-based contagion\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u5f53\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u94f6\u884c1\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u964d\u65f6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u5728\u7ec4\u5408\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u6536\u76ca\u4e0a\u7684\u5173\u8054\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u7684\u6765\u6e90\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u505a\u51fa\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u5728\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ec4\u5408\u4fe1\u606f\u638c\u63e1\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u505a\u7684\u63a8\u65ad\u4e8b\u540e\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6216\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\u56e0\u94f6\u884c\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u77e5\u7684\u590d\u6742\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u800c\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u4e25\u91cd\u3002Caballero & Simsek<\/span>\uff082013\uff09<\/span>\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u4ea4\u53c9\u98ce\u9669\u66b4\u9732\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5177\u6709\u98ce\u9669\u89c4\u907f\u503e\u5411\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u6bd4\u6709\u6548\u6c34\u5e73\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\u5730\u91c7\u53d6\u5ba1\u614e\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u8d1f\u9762\u51b2\u51fb\u6765\u4e34\u65f6\u4f1a\u76f8\u4e92\u64a4\u56de\u8d44\u91d1\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u548c\u4e92\u8054\u5173\u7cfb\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e00\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u53d8\u5f97\u8106\u5f31<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u673a\u6784\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f15\u53d1\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8fdd\u7ea6\u652f\u4ed8\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8981\u6b63\u786e\u8bc4\u4f30\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5168\u9762\u8003\u8651\u5404\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/sup>2<\/span><\/sup><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
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      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
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      \n

      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      11. \u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u53c2\u8003\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6587\u732e\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u80cc\u666f\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1aKing \u4e0e Wadhwani\uff081990\uff09\u3001Acharya \u4e0e Yorulmazer\uff082008\uff09\u3001Caballero \u4e0e Simsek\uff082013\uff09\u3001Alvarez \u4e0e Barlevy\uff082015\uff09\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca Stellian \u7b49\u4eba\uff082021\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cDiebold \u4e0e Y\u0131lmaz\uff082014\uff09\u5219\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>\u516c\u53f8\u4ef7\u503c\u5171\u52a8\u6027\uff08comovement of firms\u2019 values\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u80cc\u666f\u8bf4\u660e\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      12. \u5173\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u7edc\uff08interconnected networks\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u53c2\u8003\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6587\u732e\uff1aKivel\u00e4 \u7b49\u4eba\uff082014\uff09\u3001Burkholz \u7b49\u4eba\uff082016\uff09\u3001Garas\uff082016\uff09\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca Atkisson \u7b49\u4eba\uff082020\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      2.3. \u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u4e0e\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

      \u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u5b58\u5728\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u5730\u8dc3\u8fc1\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u5e76\u5e26\u6765\u5b9e\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u540e\u679c\u3002\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u53ef\u80fd\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\u6e90\u4e8e\u53cd\u6620\u771f\u5b9e\u57fa\u7840\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u63a8\u65ad\uff1b\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u592a\u9633\u9ed1\u5b50\u3001\u6ce1\u6cab\u6216\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u636e\u6b64\u8c03\u6574\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5916\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f15\u8d77\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cShell 1989\uff0cReinhart & Rogoff 2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b58\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u5219\u6700\u7ec8\u5b9e\u73b0\u54ea\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      2.3.1. \u6050\u614c\u4e0e<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6324\u5151<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

      \u94f6\u884c\u6324\u5151\u548c\u6050\u614c\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u5f62\u5f0f\u5c5e\u4e8e\u7531\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u884c\u4e3a\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u8303\u7574\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\u6e90\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u539f\u59cb\u804c\u80fd\uff0c\u5373\u5c06\u77ed\u671f\u5b58\u6b3e\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u957f\u671f\u975e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u94f6\u884c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u673a\u6784\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u7684\u50a8\u6237\u5728\u94f6\u884c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u4e4b\u524d\u63d0\u53d6\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u94f6\u884c\u5c06\u65e0\u6cd5\u507f\u8fd8\u6240\u6709\u50a8\u6237\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5e76\u53d1\u751f\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u7814\u7a76\u4ece\u51ef\u6069\u65af<\/span>\uff08Keynes\uff0c1936\uff09<\/span>\u5230\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u4e0e\u6234\u7ef4\u683c<\/span>\uff08Diamond & Dybvig\uff0c1983\uff09<\/span>\u5747\u6709\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u660e\u4ec5\u4ec5\u56e0\u4e3a\u9884\u671f\u94f6\u884c\u65e0\u529b\u507f\u503a\u5e76\u56e0\u6b64\u63d0\u53d6\u5b58\u6b3e\uff0c\u50a8\u6237\u5c31\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u94f6\u884c\u771f\u7684\u9677\u5165\u65e0\u529b\u507f\u503a\u7684\u72b6\u6001<\/span>\uff08\u66f4\u591a\u80cc\u666f\u4fe1\u606f\u53c2\u89c1 Reinhart & Rogoff 2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u9700\u8981\u94f6\u884c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u964d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u89e6\u53d1\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u800c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5173\u4e8e\u673a\u6784\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u94f6\u884c\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u62c5\u5fc3\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5bf9\u5176\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u51b5\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span>13<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u4f4e\u6548\u7387\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u5916\u90e8\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u50a8\u6237\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u50a8\u6237\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6295\u8d44\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4e92\u8865\u6027\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u2014\u2014\u6050\u60e7\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5177\u6709\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span>14<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u5373\u4f7f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u5bb6\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u4e5f\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5373\u4fbf\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/span><\/span>15<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      2.3.2. \u4fe1\u8d37\u51bb\u7ed3<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u6295\u8d44\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u4e0e\u64a4\u56de\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u50a8\u6237\u6216\u5916\u90e8\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8eab\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u94f6\u884c\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u94f6\u884c\u6000\u7591\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4f1a\u81ea\u6211\u5f3a\u5316\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u94f6\u884c\u62c5\u5fe7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6536\u7f29\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u8981\u6c42\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f01\u4e1a\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5f00\u59cb\u6000\u7591\u5f7c\u6b64\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u505c\u6b62\u76f8\u4e92\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u94f6\u884c\u66f4\u96be\u8c03\u6574\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u8fd9\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5267\u4fe1\u8d37\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u9762\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u51bb\u7ed3\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u51bb\u7ed3\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\uff1a<\/span><\/span>16<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6295\u8d44\u6076\u5316\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7684\u7ecf\u8425\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u6210\u4e3a\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e3a\u64a4\u8d44\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6b63\u5f53\u7406\u7531<\/span>\uff08Bebchuk & Goldstein 2011\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u53d8\u5316\u9a71\u52a8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u57282007\u5e74\u81f32009\u5e74\u95f4\u7684\u9694\u591c\u8d37\u6b3e\u5e02\u573a\u51bb\u7ed3\u4e2d\u5c31\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u53c2\u89c1 Brunnermeier 2009 \u548c Diamond & Rajan 2011 \u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8d37\u6b3e\u51e0\u4e4e\u67af\u7aed\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8bb8\u591a\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u635f\u5931\u4e86\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u6216\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5e02\u503c<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u9053\u743c\u65af\u6307\u6570\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u5e76\u672a\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5982\u6b64\u5267\u70c8\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5728\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d37\u6b3e\u5e02\u573a\u63d0\u4f9b\u5927\u91cf\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      13. \u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u53ef\u4ee5\u9012\u5f52\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5c42\u6b21\uff1a\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u77e5\u9053\u67d0\u94f6\u884c\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u77e5\u9053\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u5065\u5eb7\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4ed6\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u77e5\u9053\u201c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u201d\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u53cd\u590d\uff08Morris & Shin\uff0c2002\uff1bAllen \u7b49\uff0c2006\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      14. \u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u7cbe\u7ec6\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u5e76\u5f97\u51fa**\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u6324\u5151\uff08self-fulfilling runs\uff09**\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\uff08\u5982 Morris & Shin\uff0c1998\uff09\uff1b\u4f46\u5982 Roukny \u7b49\u4eba\uff082018\uff09\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u54ea\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\u5c06\u88ab\u5b9e\u73b0\u201d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e25\u91cd\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      15. \u975e\u5b58\u6b3e\u7c7b\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8bc1\u5238\u7ecf\u7eaa-\u4ea4\u6613\u5546\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u906d\u9047\u6765\u81ea\u62b5\u62bc\u54c1\u63d0\u4f9b\u65b9\u7684\u6324\u5151\uff08Infante & Vardoulakis\uff0c2018\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      16. \u6587\u732e\u666e\u904d\u5f3a\u8c03<\/span><\/span>\u4fe1\u8d37\u51bb\u7ed3\uff08credit freezes\uff09\u5177\u6709\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u548c\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u6076\u5316<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672c\u8282\u4e2d\u5c06\u5176\u5f52\u7c7b\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8fd9\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u540c\u6837\u53ef\u80fd<\/span><\/span>\u653e\u5927\u51b2\u51fb\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e5f\u4fc3\u6210\u7b2c\u4e00\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u906d\u9047\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u77ed\u7f3a\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8feb\u4ece\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u6536\u56de\u8d37\u6b3e\uff08\u6216\u62d2\u7edd\u5c55\u671f\uff09\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u652f\u4ed8\u538b\u529b\uff1b\u800c\u88ab\u62bd\u8d37\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u968f\u540e\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8feb\u4ece\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u62bd\u8d37\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u7c7b\u63a8\u3002\u6700\u521d\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u6269\u6563\u6210\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5371\u673a\uff08Gai \u7b49\uff0c2011\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      2.3.3. \u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u94fe\u3002\u56de\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u5408\u7ea6\u4f7f\u5f97\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u3002\u5bf9\u67d0\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u65e0\u6cd5\u507f\u8fd8\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u538b\u4f4e\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u53cd\u4f5c\u7528\u4e8e\u539f\u59cb\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6210\u4e3a\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u548c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u3002\u4e3e\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u4e0a\u6587\u7b2c2.2.1\u8282\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u503a\u6743\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fe2\u6240\u793a\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u4e3a\u8bf4\u660e\u95ee\u9898\u8d77\u89c1\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u5916\u90e8\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5f7c\u6b64\u6b20\u6b3e\u5747\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>D<\/span><\/span>12<\/span><\/sub> = D<\/span><\/span>21<\/span><\/sub> = 1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fdd\u7ea6\u94f6\u884c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u56de\u6536\u7387\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u94f6\u884c1\uff09<\/span>\u507f\u8fd8\u4e86\u5bf9\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u5219\u94f6\u884c2\u4fbf\u62e5\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u6765\u5168\u989d\u507f\u8fd8\u5176\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u94f6\u884c1\u786e\u5b9e\u80fd\u591f\u507f\u8fd8\u94f6\u884c2\uff1a\u8fd9\u79cd\u507f\u8fd8\u662f\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u4fdd\u6301\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u4e14<\/span><\/span>V<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/sub> = V<\/span><\/span>2<\/span><\/sub> = 0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5373\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u5747\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e14<\/span><\/span>V<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/sub> = V<\/span><\/span>2<\/span><\/sub> = -1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u94f6\u884c1\u9884\u8ba1\u5176\u5bf9\u94f6\u884c2\u7684\u503a\u6743\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\u507f\u8fd8\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u507f\u8fd8\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u662f\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u53ea\u9700\u4e92\u76f8\u62b5\u6d88\u503a\u52a1\u5373\u53ef\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u5f62\u5f0f\u5408\u7ea6\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b64\u7c7b\u503a\u52a1\u62b5\u6d88\u53ef\u80fd\u96be\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u548c\u6267\u884c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \u56fe 2:\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u73af\u5f62\u7f51\u7edc\uff08ring network\uff09\u3002\u7bad\u5934\u8868\u793a\u503a\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u8be5\u4f8b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7ea7\u8054\uff08default cascade\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u6324\u5151\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u7531\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u800c\u975e\u4ec5\u4ec5\u7531\u4fe1\u5ff5\u9a71\u52a8\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u73b0\u8c61\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5bf9\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u503a\u6743\u5b58\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\u503c<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982 Elliott et al., 2014\uff1bRoukny et al., 2018\uff1bJackson & Pernoud, 2020\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5f53\u7834\u4ea7\u4f34\u968f\u6210\u672c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ea7\u8054\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u8d44\u91d1\u8f6c\u79fb\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5f15\u53d1\u5b9e\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6210\u672c\uff1b\u8fd9\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u591a\u91cd\u6027\u8fd8\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u6548\u7387\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      2.3.4. \u7d27\u6025\u629b\u552e\u4e0e\u5408\u7ea6\u91cd\u65b0\u8c08\u5224<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u5f3a\u8c03\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5185\u5bb9\u7ed3\u675f\u672c\u8282\u8ba8\u8bba\uff1a\u8d44\u4ea7\u6301\u6709\u4e0a\u7684\u5171\u6027\u548c\u7d27\u6025\u629b\u552e\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u6076\u5316\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6709\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u6301\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5e76\u5047\u8bbe\u5f53\u67d0\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u5927\u91cf\u51fa\u552e\u8be5\u8d44\u4ea7\u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u4ef7\u503c\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e3a\u4f55\u51fa\u552e\u8be5\u8d44\u4ea7\u65f6\u4ea7\u751f\u8d1f\u9762\u63a8\u65ad\u6240\u81f4\u3002\u5728\u6b63\u5e38\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u4e0d\u88ab\u8feb\u51fa\u552e\u6240\u6301\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff1a\u6b64\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u4ef7\u503c\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4f46\u8fd8\u5b58\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5373\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u5927\u91cf\u629b\u552e\u5176\u6240\u6301\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u538b\u4f4e\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u964d\u4f4e\u94f6\u884c\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u6e05\u4ed3\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u51b2\u51fb\u8db3\u591f\u5927\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u6e05\u4ed3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5c31\u662f\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u3002Krishnamurthy<\/span>\uff082010\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5747\u8861\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6e05\u7b97\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u3002Caballero & Simsek<\/span>\uff082013\uff09<\/span>\u5219\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e2\u5305\u542b\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u4ea4\u53c9\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u201c\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u9aa8\u724c\u6548\u5e94\u201d\uff0c\u53c8\u5305\u542b\u7d27\u6025\u629b\u552e\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bc1\u660e\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u5747\u8861\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u4f20\u67d3\u88ab\u63a7\u5236\u4f4f\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u4fdd\u6301\u5408\u7406\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u94f6\u884c\u91c7\u53d6\u5ba1\u614e\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7d27\u6025\u629b\u552e\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u4f4e\u8ff7\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span>17<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u629b\u552e\u8d44\u4ea7\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u94f6\u884c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5728\u538b\u529b\u65f6\u671f\u6076\u5316\u52a0\u5267\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e49\u52a1\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e49\u52a1\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u4e14\u4e0d\u65ad\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u9884\u671f\u9762\u4e34\u4f4e\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u5e76\u56e0\u6b64\u63a5\u8fd1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u8fb9\u7f18\uff0c\u5219\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u5411\u5176\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fe1\u8d37\u65f6\u4f1a\u8981\u6c42\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u62b5\u62bc\u54c1\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6076\u5316\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5904\u5883\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5176\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span>18<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5f62\u5f0f\u90fd\u4f1a\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u901a\u5e38\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/span><\/span>19<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      17. Malherbe\uff082014\uff09\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86<\/span><\/span>\u9006\u5411\u9009\u62e9\uff08adverse selection\uff09\u5728\u8bf1\u53d1\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u5f0f\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u67af\u7aed\uff08self-fulfilling liquidity dry-ups\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      18.  Fostel \u4e0e Geanakoplos\uff082008, 2014\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6709\u5173<\/span><\/span>\u6760\u6746\u5468\u671f\uff08leverage cycle\uff09\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u8d37\u6b3e\u6240\u9700\u7684\u62b5\u62bc\u54c1\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff08collateral requirements\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5e76\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5747\u8861\u4e2d\u53cd\u4f5c\u7528\u4e8e\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      19. Siebenbrunner\uff082021\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u91cf\u5316\u4e0d\u540c\u673a\u5236\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u76f8\u5bf9\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      \n
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      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      \n
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      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \n
      <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n

      3. \u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n

      \u73b0\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u6587\u732e\u57fa\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u503a\u52a1\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u57fa\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u5408\u540c\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u8ba8\u8bba\u80a1\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u964d\u548c\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u7ea7\u8054\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ea7\u8054\u4f20\u64ad\u5982\u4f55\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u51b2\u51fb\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u8ba8\u8bba\u6e90\u4e8e\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5e76\u8be6\u7ec6\u9610\u8ff0\u54ea\u4e9b\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u5f0f\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6b64\u7c7b\u53cd\u9988\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      3.1.  \u7f51\u7edc\u5bc6\u5ea6\u4e2d\u7684\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

      \u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u62b5\u6d88\u6027\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u5bc6\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u3002Elliott\u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082014\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8be6\u7ec6\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5b83\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u591a\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5305\u62ecCifuentes\u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082005\uff09<\/span>\u3001Gai\u4e0eKapadia<\/span>\uff082010\uff09<\/span>\u3001Wagner<\/span>\uff082010\uff09<\/span>\u3001Elliott\u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082014\uff09<\/span>\u3001Gofman<\/span>\uff082017\uff09<\/span>\u4ee5\u53caJackson\u4e0ePernoud<\/span>\uff082019\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7279\u6027\u5c06\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u73b0\u8c61\u533a\u522b\u4e8e\u4f8b\u5982\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u6216\u89c2\u5ff5\u7684\u6269\u6563\uff0c\u5728\u540e\u8005\u4e2d\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e92\u52a8\u53ea\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/span><\/span>20<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5f53\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u6570\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u6765\u81ea\u66f4\u591a\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6216\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u94f6\u884c\u603b\u655e\u53e3\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u655e\u53e3\u5206\u6563\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u8eab\u4e0a\u4f1a\u4f7f\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u66b4\u9732\u7a0b\u5ea6\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u964d\u4f4e\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u529b\u91cf\uff0cElliott\u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082014\uff09<\/span>\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e92\u8054\u6027\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff1a <\/span><\/span>(a\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u6bcf\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u7f51\u7edc\u5bc6\u5ea6\uff1b <\/span><\/span>(b\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u94f6\u884c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e2d\u7531\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u673a\u6784\u7b7e\u8ba2\u7684\u5408\u540c\u6240\u6784\u6210\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6574\u5408\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u4f8b\u5b50\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u3002\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u76f8\u540c\u94f6\u884c\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5982\u56fe3a\u6240\u793a\u3002\u5728\u8d1f\u503a\u65b9\uff0c\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u670910\u5355\u4f4d\u6765\u81ea\u5b58\u6b3e\u7684\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u53e6\u670910\u5355\u4f4d\u6765\u81ea\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6240\u6709\u8005\u4ee5\u80a1\u672c\u5f62\u5f0f\u6301\u67092\u5355\u4f4d\u8d44\u672c\u3002\u5728\u8d44\u4ea7\u65b9\uff0c\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u62e5\u6709\u4ef7\u503c12\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u5e76\u5411\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u53d1\u653e\u4e86\u4ef7\u503c10\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \u56fe 3\uff1a (a) \u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u3002(b) \u67d0\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3\u4f4e\u4e8e 10\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3 8\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u9677\u5165\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bf9\u90e8\u5206\u652f\u4ed8\u4e49\u52a1\u53d1\u751f\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6574\u5408\u5ea6\u8861\u91cf\u4e3a10\u2014\u2014\u5373\u94f6\u884c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e2d\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u5728\u672c\u4f8b\u4e2d\u662f\u4ee5\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u4f53\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\u4e3a4\uff0c\u5373\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6574\u5408\u5ea6\u548c\u5bc6\u5ea6\u6c34\u5e73\u5bfc\u81f4\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u655e\u53e3\u4e3a2.5\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u4e5f\u5411\u56db\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u5404\u6b202.5\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b58\u5728\u5b8c\u5168\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u73b0\u5728\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5982\u56fe3b\u6240\u793a\u3002\u8fd9\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c65\u884c\u90e8\u5206\u652f\u4ed8\u4e49\u52a1\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8fdd\u7ea6\u89c6\u4e3a\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u7b14\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u5b8c\u5168\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u7834\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u9020\u6210\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u5f53\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u6269\u5c55\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u6765\u5904\u7406\u90e8\u5206\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8d77\u521d\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u6b20\u53e6\u5916\u56db\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u54042.5\u5355\u4f4d\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b83\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u6210\u81f3\u5c11\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u7b14\u652f\u4ed8\u3002\u8fd9\u7b14\u635f\u5931\u5fc5\u987b\u7531\u5411\u8be5\u7b2c\u4e00\u94f6\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u65b9\u51b2\u9500\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u635f\u5931\u4e86\u5176\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e2d\u76842.5\u5355\u4f4d\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u4e5f\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5176\u90e8\u5206\u652f\u4ed8\u4e49\u52a1\u4e0a\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u518d\u6b21\u5047\u8bbe\u5b58\u5728\u7834\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u65e0\u6cd5\u507f\u8fd8\u81f3\u5c11\u67d0\u4e00\u7b14\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u5982\u56fe4a\u6240\u793a\u3002\u8fd9\u4fbf\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \u56fe 4\uff1a (a) \u7b2c\u4e8c\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u56e0\u5bf9\u7b2c\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u4ef7\u503c\u635f\u5931\u800c\u53d8\u5f97\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u4e5f\u5bf9\u90e8\u5206\u652f\u4ed8\u4e49\u52a1\u53d1\u751f\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002(b) \u5c3d\u7ba1\u94f6\u884c\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u624b\u65b9\u7684\u655e\u53e3\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u5355\u4e00\u5bf9\u624b\u8fdd\u7ea6\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u81f4\u547d\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u655e\u53e3\u4e3a2.5\u5355\u4f4d\uff0c\u800c\u521d\u59cb\u80a1\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\u4ec5\u4e3a2\u5355\u4f4d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5373\u4f7f\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u5bb6\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6b64\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6574\u5408\u6c34\u5e73\u548c\u7f51\u7edc\u5bc6\u5ea6\u90fd\u5bf9\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5982\u679c\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6574\u5408\u5ea6\u8f83\u4f4e\u4f46\u4fdd\u6301\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5bc6\u5ea6\uff0c\u5219\u5176\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u7279\u5b9a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u655e\u53e3\u5c06\u4f4e\u4e8e2.5\u5355\u4f4d\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u655e\u53e3\u4f4e\u4e8e2\u5355\u4f4d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u62b9\u53bb\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u80a1\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u63d0\u9ad8\u6574\u5408\u5ea6\u2014\u2014\u5373\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u2014\u2014\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u4f20\u67d3\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u672c\u4f8b\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/span><\/span>21<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u4ecd\u5177\u670910\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5bc6\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u5176\u5bf9\u4efb\u4e00\u5355\u4e00\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc72\u5355\u4f4d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u5bc6\u5ea6\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4fee\u6539\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u8ba9\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u62e5\u670910\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5bf9\u624b\u5404\u6b201\u5355\u4f4d\uff0c\u5982\u56fe4b\u6240\u793a\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6574\u5408\u6c34\u5e73\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u4f46\u7f51\u7edc\u5bc6\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u518d\u53d1\u751f\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u90fd\u4e0d\u518d\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u9677\u5165\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u7684\u5883\u5730\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u8fd9\u91cc\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u770b\u5230\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027<\/span>\uff08non-monotonicity\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u5bc6\u96c6\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5448\u73b0\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u96f6\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4f20\u67d3\uff1b\u6216\u8005\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u5f7c\u6b64\u4e92\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u53ea\u4f1a\u62d6\u7d2f\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6269\u6563\u3002\u5f53\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u6709\u56db\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u65f6\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u201d\uff1a\u7f51\u7edc\u8db3\u591f\u5bc6\u96c6\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u95ee\u9898\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u4e5f\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u655e\u53e3\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u4e00\u6b21\u8fdd\u7ea6\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u4e00\u65e6\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u6570\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u523010\u4e2a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5355\u4e00\u8fdd\u7ea6\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u6765\u8bf4\u90fd\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u91cd\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6d88\u9664\u591a\u6837\u5316\u6536\u76ca\u5e76\u589e\u52a0\u5171\u540c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u6765\u7f13\u89e3\u751a\u81f3\u6d88\u9664\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\u4e2d\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8bf7\u91cd\u65b0\u8003\u8651\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4f8b\u5b50<\/span>\uff08\u89c1\u56fe4\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u5927\u91cf\u6301\u6709\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u62c5\u4fdd\u503a\u52a1\u51ed\u8bc1<\/span>\uff08CDO\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf2007\u5e74\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u503c\u8dcc\u81f310\u5355\u4f4d\u4ee5\u4e0b\u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5904\u4e8e\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6539\u53d8\u56fe4b\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u503c\u964d\u81f38\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u5176\u964d\u81f310\u5355\u4f4d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7b2c\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u9677\u5165\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u72b6\u6001\u2014\u2014\u5982\u56fe5\u6240\u793a\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u4e0a\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u7aef\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u8868\u73b0\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u8fd8\u56e0\u4e3a\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u591a\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u5176\u5e94\u6536\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u8d44\u4ea7\u7aef\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span>22<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \u56fe 5\uff1a\u5728\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u5173\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e00\u5bf9\u624b\u65b9\u7684\u655e\u53e3\u6c34\u5e73\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u5374\u4f1a\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u62b5\u6d88\u6587\u672c\u4e2d\u6240\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u591a\u6837\u5316\u4e0e\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u76ca\u5904\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5373\u4fbf\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u62e5\u6709\u591a\u8fbe 10 \u4e2a\u5408\u4f5c\u5bf9\u624b\uff0c\u5b83\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u4e0a\u7684\u591a\u6837\u5316\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u5e76\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u67d3\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u5730\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5171\u540c\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0a\u5347<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cWagner<\/span>\uff082010\uff09<\/span>\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u4e24\u79cd\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u5982\u679c\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u914d\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u5b8c\u5168\u5206\u6563\u5316\uff0c\u5219\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u79cd\u6743\u8861\uff1a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u591a\u6837\u5316\u2014\u2014\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u94f6\u884c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e4b\u95f4\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u2014\u2014\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u65e0\u6761\u4ef6\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u5b83\u4eec\u540c\u65f6\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/span>\uff08\u5047\u8bbe\u5b83\u4eec\u6700\u521d\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u94f6\u884c\u62e5\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e14\u672a\u5145\u5206\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u6301\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u6216\u8d37\u6b3e\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u65e2\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u53c8\u5177\u6709\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      20. \u8fd9\u4e5f\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u901a\u5e38\u6240\u8bf4\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u590d\u6742\u4f20\u67d3\uff08complex contagion\uff09\u7684\u8303\u7574\uff0c\u5373\u6307\u67d0\u79cd\u201c\u611f\u67d3\u201d\u9700\u7ecf\u8fc7\u591a\u6b21\u4ea4\u4e92<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u624d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u9700\u8981\u591a\u6b21\u542c\u5230\u67d0\u4e2a\u8c23\u8a00\u624d\u4f1a\u76f8\u4fe1\u5e76\u4f20\u64ad\u5b83\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u5927\u591a\u6570\u670b\u53cb\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u540e\u624d\u4f1a\u8ddf\u968f\uff08\u5173\u4e8e\u80cc\u666f\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e0e\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u89c1 Centola\uff0c2018\uff1bJackson\uff0c2019\uff1b\u5173\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u4f20\u67d3\u5982\u4f55\u968f\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u53c2\u89c1 Jackson & Storms\uff0c2017\uff09\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u5177\u6709\u590d\u6742\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u5bf9\u624b\u65b9\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e4b\u540e\u624d\u4f1a\u7834\u4ea7\uff1b\u4f46\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7f51\u7edc\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b<\/span><\/span>\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027\uff08non-monotonicities\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5373\u7834\u4ea7\u53d1\u751f\u4e0e\u4e92\u52a8\u6b21\u6570\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u6216\u9012\u589e\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      21. \u4e0d\u8fc7\u6b63\u5982 Elliott \u7b49\u4eba\uff082014\uff09\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6574\u5408\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5206\u6563\u67d0\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u901a\u8fc7\u7f51\u7edc\u8fde\u63a5\u201c\u95f4\u63a5\u201d\u6301\u6709\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u578b\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u655e\u53e3\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u964d\u4f4e\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u81ea\u8eab\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u4f20\u67d3\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      22. \u5173\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>\u76f8\u5173\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\uff08correlated portfolios\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u793a\u4f8b\u548c\u6a21\u62df\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u53c2\u8003 Elliott \u7b49\u4eba\uff082014\uff09\u5728\u7ebf\u9644\u5f55\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      3.2.  \u5065\u58ee\u5374\u8106\u5f31<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

      \u6b63\u5982 Haldane<\/span>\uff082009\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5e76\u7531 Gai & Kapadia<\/span>\uff082010\uff09<\/span>\u8be6\u7ec6\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u5065\u58ee\u5374\u8106\u5f31\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/strong>23<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\uff08\u5982\u501f\u8d37\u6216\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u63d0\u4f9b\uff09\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u62c5\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e2a\u522b\u673a\u6784\u5bf9\u4e2a\u522b\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\u6216\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51b2\u51fb\u4f1a\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u4e4b\u95f4\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u591a\u6837\u5316\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u964d\u4f4e\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e00\u673a\u6784\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u5177\u6709\u5065\u58ee\u6027\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u5373\u4f7f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u591a\u6837\u5316\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u5012\u95ed\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u4f1a\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u3001\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u4f20\u64ad\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u8868\u73b0\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u53ca\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5408\u540c\u7c7b\u578b<\/span>\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 Allen & Gale 2000, Gale & Kariv 2007, Gai & Kapadia 2010, Battistoni \u7b49 2012, Elliott \u7b49 2014, Acemoglu \u7b49 2015a\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      23. Callaway \u7b49\u4eba\uff082000\uff09\u8f83\u65e9\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u56fe\u4e0a\u7684\u6e17\u6d41\u73b0\u8c61\uff08percolation on graphs\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u6b64\u7c7b\u6743\u8861\u5173\u7cfb\uff08trade-off\uff09\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      \u8fd9\u4e0e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u201c\u5065\u58ee\u5374\u8106\u5f31\u201d\u7684\u7279\u6027\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f18\u4e8e\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u60c5\u51b5\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u7cdf\u3002\u5728\u524d\u9762\u5173\u4e8e\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u7279\u5b9a\u51b2\u51fb\u662f\u5426\u5f15\u53d1\u7ea7\u8054\u53cd\u5e94\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u6bd4\u8f83\u9759\u6001\u5206\u6790\u662f\u5728\u56fa\u5b9a\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002\u800c\u201c\u5065\u58ee\u5374\u8106\u5f31\u201d\u73b0\u8c61\u5219\u662f\u6bd4\u8f83\u540c\u4e00\u7f51\u7edc\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u51b2\u51fb\u65f6\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5dee\u5f02<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      Acemoglu \u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082015a\uff09<\/span>\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u65e0\u62c5\u4fdd\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u503a\u52a1\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5e76\u7814\u7a76\u94f6\u884c\u6536\u76ca\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u51b2\u51fb\u60c5\u5f62\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u603b\u8d85\u989d\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5438\u6536\u7684\u5c0f\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u5438\u6536\u7684\u5927\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u5728\u524d\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u660e\u786e\u7f13\u89e3\u4e86\u4f20\u67d3\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u6700\u80fd\u62b5\u5fa1\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08complete network\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u603b\u8d1f\u503a\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u5e03\u5728\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u8fd9\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u6700\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u62c5\u548c\u6700\u5c0f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u51b2\u51fb\u5927\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u603b\u8d85\u989d\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u53ea\u4f1a\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5176\u4f20\u64ad\u3002Allen & Gale<\/span>\uff082000\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u4e5f\u9884\u793a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u660e\u4f20\u67d3\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u5c06\u589e\u52a0\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u62c5\u800c\u4e0d\u4ea7\u751f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      Cabrales\u7b49<\/span>\uff082017\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u51b2\u51fb\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u6355\u6349\u4e86\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e8b\u524d\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u6709\u5bf9\u5916\u8d1f\u503a\uff0c\u5e76\u80fd\u591f\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e00\u4e2a\u98ce\u9669\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u53d7\u5230\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e14\u5404\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u540c\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u65e0\u6cd5\u507f\u8fd8\u5176\u5bf9\u5916\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u4f1a\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u56e0\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u4e9b\u6210\u672c\u3002\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea4\u6362\u5f7c\u6b64\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6743\u76ca\u6765\u5206\u6563\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u4ece\u94f6\u884ci<\/span><\/span>\u5230\u94f6\u884cj<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u8868\u793a\u94f6\u884ci<\/span><\/span>\u5bf9\u94f6\u884c<\/span><\/span>j<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u62e5\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u6743\u5229\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fde\u63a5\u5173\u7cfb\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u662f\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4efb\u4f55\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u503a\u52a1\u4e49\u52a1\u3002\u540c\u6837\u7684\u6743\u8861\u4e5f\u968f\u4e4b\u51fa\u73b0\uff1a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u62c5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u66f4\u591a\u98ce\u9669\u6765\u6e90\u4e4b\u4e0b\u3002\u5bfc\u81f4\u9884\u671f\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6570\u91cf\u6700\u5c11\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0cCabrales\u7b49<\/span>\uff082017\uff09<\/span>\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5927\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u5219\u7a7a\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u8fde\u63a5\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u6700\u4f18\u7684\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u51b2\u51fb\u5927\u591a\u8f83\u5c0f\uff0c\u5219\u5b8c\u5168\u5bf9\u79f0\u7f51\u7edc\u5177\u6709\u6700\u5f3a\u7684\u6297\u98ce\u9669\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u5206\u5e03\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e2d\u95f4\u5bc6\u5ea6\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u6700\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u51cf\u5c11\u4f20\u67d3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      Acemoglu\u7b49<\/span>\uff082015a\uff09<\/span>\u523b\u753b\u4e86\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u51b2\u51fb\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u6700\u5177\u6216\u6700\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6297\u91d1\u878d\u4f20\u67d3\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u5982\u679c\u51b2\u51fb\u8f83\u5c0f\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u7f51\u7edc\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u6700\u4f4e\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u73af\u5f62\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08\u5176\u4e2d\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u503a\u6743\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u4e0a\uff09<\/span>\u5219\u662f\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u53d1\u751f\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5206\u6790\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u89c4\u5219\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u62e5\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u503a\u6743\u548c\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u5e76\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u94f6\u884c\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u8fde\u63a5\u6027\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u67d0\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u6210\u4e3a\u51c0\u8d37\u6b3e\u4eba\u6216\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e0a\u7684\u53ef\u5904\u7406\u6027\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u53ea\u80fd\u5bf9\u5982\u6b64\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u8bbe\u5b9a\u8fdb\u884c\u5b8c\u6574\u523b\u753b\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5229\u7528\u5927\u578b\u968f\u673a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u6bcf\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u6d1e\u89c1\u548c\u5206\u6790\u4fbf\u5229\uff0c\u4f46\u4ec5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6709\u9650\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u4e00\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u901a\u5e38\u5305\u542b\u663e\u8457\u7684\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\u6838\u5fc3-\u8fb9\u7f18\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u2014\u2014\u800c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4f20\u67d3\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5927\u578b\u6838\u5fc3\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u5c0f\u51b2\u51fb\u5177\u6709\u62b5\u6297\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u906d\u9047\u5927\u51b2\u51fb\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u707e\u96be\u6027\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5f53\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51b2\u51fb\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u65f6\u66f4\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5982Elliott\u7b49<\/span>\uff082014\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u62df\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u6838\u5fc3-\u8fb9\u7f18\u7f51\u7edc\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u524a\u5f31\u7b2c3.1\u8282\u4e2d\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u4e00\u5bb6\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u6216\u6838\u5fc3\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u5176\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u5931\u8d25\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6838\u5fc3\u5185\u90e8\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u800c\u8513\u5ef6\u81f3\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f2008\u5e74\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u3002\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cGai\u7b49<\/span>\uff082011\uff09<\/span>\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u62df\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u503a\u6743\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4f20\u67d3\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff1bGlasserman\u4e0eYoung<\/span>\uff082015\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u7c7b\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f53\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u89c4\u6a21\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u4e14\u51b2\u51fb\u6e90\u81ea\u4e00\u5bb6\u4f4d\u4e8e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7684\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u65f6\uff0c\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\u6700\u5927\uff1bTetyratnikova<\/span>\uff082014\uff09<\/span>\u5219\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u76f8\u90bb\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5ea6\u6570<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u6570\u91cf\uff09<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u5982\u4f55\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u63d0\u5347\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u4ece\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u5c55\u5f00\u5206\u6790\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\uff1a\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u7ed3\u6784\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u4f20\u67d3\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u5177\u4f53\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u666e\u904d\u4e14\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u5c06\u4f20\u67d3\u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u6a21\u62df\u98ce\u9669\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5df2\u88ab\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u65e5\u76ca\u91c7\u7528<\/span>\uff08Aikman et al. 2009, Basel Comm. Bank. Superv. 2015\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      3.3.  \u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u6548\u5e94\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u51bb\u7ed3\uff1a\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

      \u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u4ea7\u751f\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6587\u732e\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5faa\u73af\u5728\u4ea7\u751f\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08\u53c2\u89c1 Roukny \u7b49\uff0c2018\uff1bD’Errico & Roukny\uff0c2019\uff1bJackson & Pernoud\uff0c2020\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u56fe2\u4e2d\u5df2\u6709\u9884\u793a\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u503a\u52a1\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u5faa\u73af\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u5e76\u672a\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u521b\u9020\u4ef7\u503c\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6e05\u9664\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5faa\u73af\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u94f6\u884c\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u964d\u4f4e<\/span><\/span>\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7ea7\u8054<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cRoukny \u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082018\uff09<\/span>\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u4e14\u4ec5\u5f53\u5b58\u5728\u7531\u5145\u5206\u4e92\u8054\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u65f6\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4ef7\u503c\u5b58\u5728\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5176\u5728\u5faa\u73af\u4e2d\u524d\u4e00\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u4f5c\u4e3a\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u8bf7\u8003\u8651\u56fe6\u6240\u793a\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u5728\u56fe6a\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u507f\u8fd8\u5176\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7531\u4e8e\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3a10\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u6240\u6b20\u503a\u52a1\u603b\u989d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u94f6\u884c\u80fd\u591f\u507f\u8fd8\u5176\u503a\u52a1\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u6210\u4e3a\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u9884\u8a00\uff1a\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6240\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u3001\u503a\u52a1\u5747\u672a\u507f\u8fd8\u7684\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6240\u6709\u503a\u52a1\u90fd\u88ab\u507f\u8fd8\u7684\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u56fe6b\u6240\u793a\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u603b\u503a\u52a1\u5df2\u76f8\u4e92\u62b5\u6d88\uff0c\u53ea\u4fdd\u7559\u51c0\u503a\u52a1\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u6e05\u9664\u6240\u6709\u5faa\u73af\u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u786e\u4fdd\u53ea\u6709\u6700\u4f18\u5747\u8861\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u6e05\u9664\u5faa\u73af\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e26\u6765\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u94f6\u884c\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6301\u60b2\u89c2\u4fe1\u5ff5\u2014\u2014\u6216\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u4ed6\u4eba\u6301\u6709\u60b2\u89c2\u4fe1\u5ff5\u65f6<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \u56fe 6\uff1a\u56fe a \u548c\u56fe b \u4e2d\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u51c0\u503a\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\uff08net debts\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u95ed\u73af\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u5305\u542b\u3002\u6240\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u503c\u5747\u4e3a 10\u3002\u82e5\u67d0\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u9677\u5165\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5219\u5176\u5c06\u4e0d\u507f\u8fd8\u4efb\u4f55\u503a\u52a1\u3002\u5728\u56fe b \u6240\u793a\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u5747\u4fdd\u6301\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u800c\u5728\u56fe a \u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u5219\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u5747\u8861\u89e3\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u6240\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u5747\u8fdd\u7ea6\u5e76\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u65e0\u4efb\u4f55\u94f6\u884c\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u6e05\u6670\u5c55\u793a\u94f6\u884c\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u62b5\u6d88\u503a\u52a1\u6765\u907f\u514d\u4e0d\u826f\u5747\u8861\u7684\u7b80\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5faa\u73af\u8981\u590d\u6742\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6d89\u53ca\u591a\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u671f\u9650\u6216\u5408\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u60f0\u6027\u5e76\u4f7f\u534f\u8c03\u5931\u8d25\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u65f6\u671f\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u5ef6\u8fdf\u507f\u8fd8\u503a\u52a1\u65f6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u4f55\u65f6\u5faa\u73af\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u95ee\u9898\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5176\u5b58\u5728\u65f6\u52a0\u4ee5\u514b\u670d\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      Jackson & Pernoud<\/span>\uff082020\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u51bb\u7ed3\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8be6\u7ec6\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e76\u523b\u753b\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u4ee5\u53ca\u7834\u4ea7\u65f6\u7684\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u5ef6\u8fdf\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/span>24<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4e9b\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u603b\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u8f83\u5c11\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u62e5\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7f13\u51b2\u6765\u963b\u6b62\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6b64\u7c7b\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u51bb\u7ed3\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u5f53\u67d0\u4e2a\u5faa\u73af\u4e2d\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u6765\u81ea\u5faa\u73af\u5916\u90e8\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u6765\u89e6\u53d1\u8be5\u5faa\u73af\u5185\u7684\u507f\u4ed8\u7ea7\u8054\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u3002Jackson & Pernoud<\/span>\uff082020\uff09<\/span>\u8fd8\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u66f4\u4e3a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u523b\u753b\u4e86\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u79cd\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u662f\u7531\u5305\u542b\u503a\u52a1\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u7c7b\u578b\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u5faa\u73af\u7ed3\u6784\u6240\u751f\u6210\u7684\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u6d89\u53ca\u5173\u952e\u503a\u52a1\u4e49\u52a1\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5faa\u73af\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u523b\u753b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5747\u8861\u591a\u91cd\u6027\u548c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u51bb\u7ed3\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u8fd8\u4e3a\u8bc6\u522b\u4f7f\u6574\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u6062\u590d\u5b8c\u5168\u6e05\u507f\u80fd\u529b\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u6551\u52a9\u89c4\u6a21\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u6587\u6240\u8ff0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u6e05\u7b97\u5faa\u73af\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u4e00\u79cd\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u538b\u7f29\u201d<\/span>\uff08portfolio compression\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5e94\u7528<\/span>\uff08D’Errico & Roukny 2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8be5\u6280\u672f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u51c0\u989d\u7ed3\u7b97\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u51cf\u5c11\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u7684\u603b\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u964d\u4f4e\u76d1\u7ba1\u8981\u6c42\u3002\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u901a\u8fc7\u4e2d\u592e\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u65b9<\/span>\uff08CCP\uff09<\/span>\u6e05\u7b97\u53cc\u8fb9\u573a\u5916<\/span>\uff08OTC\uff09<\/span>\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u597d\u5904\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e5f\u5e38\u5e38\u63d0\u51fa\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u5224\u65ad\u3002CCP\u5141\u8bb8\u5bf9\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u5408\u7ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u591a\u8fb9\u51c0\u989d\u7ed3\u7b97\uff0c\u8fd9\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u5e76\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span>25<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span> \u5982\u679c\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u5408\u7ea6\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u503a\u52a1\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u5219\u8fd9\u79cd\u591a\u8fb9\u51c0\u989d\u7ed3\u7b97\u5c31\u7b49\u4ef7\u4e8e\u6e05\u7b97\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u5982\u56fe6\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
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      \n
      \n
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      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
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      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      24. \u5728\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7834\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\uff08Eisenberg & Noe\uff0c2001\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      25. \u5173\u4e8e\u8be5\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u66f4\u8be6\u7ec6\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e0e\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u53c2\u8003 Duffie \u4e0e Zhu\uff082011\uff09\uff1b\u5173\u4e8e\u4e2d\u592e\u5bf9\u624b\u65b9\uff08CCP\uff09\u4fdd\u8bc1\u91d1\u4e0e\u62b5\u62bc\u54c1\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u53ef\u53c2\u89c1 Capponi \u4e0e Cheng\uff082018\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca Wang \u7b49\u4eba\uff082020\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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      <\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
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      <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n

      4. \u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n

      \u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u591a\u4e2a\u5185\u751f\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u2014\u2014\u5305\u62ec\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u53ca\u5176\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u662f\u7531\u6784\u6210\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u673a\u6784\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6240\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5373\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u5236\u662f\u5426\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u5e76\u9009\u62e9\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u4ee5\u6700\u5927\u5316\u6574\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u7531\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u5916\u90e8\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u9884\u671f\u4e2a\u4f53\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u798f\u5229\u76f8\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6587\u732e\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u5b58\u5728\u9519\u914d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u56de\u987e\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u53ca\u5176\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u6f5c\u529b\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\uff1b\u63a5\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u5176\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d44\u4ea7\u65f6\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u63a2\u8ba8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5747\u8861\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      4.1.  \u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

      \u6587\u732e\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u94f6\u884c\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u626d\u66f2\uff1a<\/span><\/span>\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u52a8\u673a\u627f\u62c5\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5730\u4f7f\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e0e\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u8d8b\u4e8e\u4e00\u81f4<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u65e0\u6548\u7387\u884c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u6240\u8d77\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      4.1.1.  \u98ce\u9669\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7684\u4f4e\u6548\u6295\u8d44<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u91d1\u878d\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e24\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u65b9\u5f0f\u5bfc\u81f4\u94f6\u884c\u627f\u62c5\u9ad8\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u6700\u4f18\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u5206\u522b\u5bf9\u5e94\u7b2c2\u8282\u4e2d\u6240\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u4e24\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f71\u54cd\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u8fd8\u4f1a\u95f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3001\u5176\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4f9d\u6b64\u7c7b\u63a8\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u5e76\u4e0d\u65b0\u9c9c\uff1a\u8bb8\u591a\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\u6295\u8d44\u9009\u62e9\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u53cd\u6620\u6240\u6709\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u8005\u7684\u5229\u76ca<\/span>\uff08Admati & Hellwig 2013\uff09<\/span>\uff0cJensen & Meckling<\/span>\uff081976\uff09<\/span>\u65e9\u671f\u5bf9\u6b64\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u80a1\u4e1c\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u5df2\u5728\u591a\u79cd\u7f51\u7edc\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\u88ab\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7<\/span>\uff08Brusco & Castiglionesi 2007, Hirshleifer & Teoh 2009, Galeotti & Ghiglino 2021, Jackson & Pernoud 2019, Shu 2019\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u5229\u76ca\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u4e0e\u673a\u6784\u76f4\u63a5\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u4f8b\u5982\uff0cJackson & Pernoud<\/span>\uff082019\uff09<\/span>\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u9009\u62e9\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c i<\/span><\/span> \u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u5177\u6709\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u7387 <\/span><\/span>1 + r<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u6216\u4e00\u79cd\u5177\u6709\u968f\u673a\u6536\u76ca<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/span>\"image.png\"<\/span><\/sub>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u901a\u8fc7\u503a\u52a1\u6216\u80a1\u6743\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7ea6\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u94f6\u884c\u4e0d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u7279\u5b9a\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u4fbf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u5360\u4f18\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u8fc7\u5ea6\u79ef\u7d2f\u3002\u76f4\u89c2\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u7ed3\u6784\u624d\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5f97\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u884c\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u7f51\u7edc\u53cd\u9988\u5230\u81ea\u8eab\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f15\u53d1<\/span><\/span>\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7ea7\u8054<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u53cd\u9988\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u6743\u8861\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5229\u5f0a\u65f6\u4f1a\u5ffd\u89c6\u5176\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5404\u79cd\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u6210\u4e3a\u6218\u7565\u4e92\u8865\u54c1\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u793e\u4f1a\u4f4e\u6548\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cAllouch & Jalloul<\/span>\uff082018\uff09<\/span>\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d1f\u503a\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5728\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u5c06\u90e8\u5206\u521d\u59cb\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u50a8\u5b58\u8d77\u6765\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u51c0\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7acb\u5373\u5151\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6536\u76ca<\/span>\uff08\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u653e\u5f03\u672a\u6765\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u56de\u62a5\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u534f\u8c03\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u201c\u8fdd\u7ea6\u201d\u6216\u201c\u4e0d\u8fdd\u7ea6\u201d\u4e4b\u95f4\u505a\u51fa\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u662f\u6218\u7565\u4e92\u8865\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u4fdd\u6301\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u7ef4\u6301\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u503a\u52a1\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0d\u826f\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5373\u94f6\u884c\u9884\u671f\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e5f\u4f1a\u63d0\u524d\u5151\u73b0\u5e76\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u9009\u62e9\u63d0\u524d\u5151\u73b0\u5e76\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u662f\u65e0\u6548\u7387\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u6240\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u503a\u6743\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u534f\u8c03\u4e00\u81f4\u5730\u4fdd\u6301\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5904\u5883\u90fd\u4f1a\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      4.1.2. \u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5185\u751f\u76f8\u5173\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u4fc3\u4f7f\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6295\u8d44\u8d8b\u4e8e\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u662f\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u4ece\u4f17\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u770b\u5230\u4ed6\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c\u67d0\u9879\u6295\u8d44\u53ef\u80fd\u6697\u793a\u8be5\u6295\u8d44\u524d\u666f\u826f\u597d<\/span>\uff08Banerjee 1992, Bikhchandani et al. 1992, Chincarini 2012\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u58f0\u8a89\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u800c\u8ddf\u968f\u4ed6\u4eba<\/span>\uff08Scharfstein & Stein 1990\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u63a8\u52a8\u6295\u8d44\u8d8b\u540c\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u9650\u5236\u6295\u8d44\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u89c4\u5b9a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c4\u5b9a\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8feb\u4f7f\u94f6\u884c\u6301\u6709\u7279\u5b9a\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u6216\u6700\u4f4e\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u6216\u8981\u6c42\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6ee1\u8db3\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u94f6\u884c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u529b\u91cf\u9a71\u4f7f\u5176\u91c7\u53d6\u4e0e\u5176\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u7b56\u7565<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cCohen-Cole \u7b49\u4eba 2015\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u7c7b\u76d1\u7ba1\u65e8\u5728\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5b83\u4eec\u4fc3\u4f7f\u94f6\u884c\u6301\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u51b2\u51fb<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u91cd\u5927\u4e3b\u6743\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff09<\/span>\u540c\u65f6\u6253\u51fb\u5927\u91cf\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u9664\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u5b58\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u5728\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u6551\u52a9\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u65f6\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5982\u679c\u540c\u65f6\u5012\u95ed\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u6570\u91cf\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u5219\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1<\/span><\/span>\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7ea7\u8054<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u76d1\u7ba1\u8005\u66f4\u6709\u52a8\u529b\u8fdb\u884c\u5e72\u9884\u3002Acharya & Yorulmazer<\/span>\uff082007\uff09<\/span>\u4e5f\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u201c\u5927\u800c\u4e0d\u5012\u201d\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u6fc0\u52b1\u94f6\u884c\u4f7f\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u8d8b\u4e8e\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e00\u8d77\u7834\u4ea7\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u88ab\u6551\u52a9\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u90fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u94f6\u884c\u4ece\u4f17\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u662f\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7b2c2\u8282\u4e2d\u5df2\u7ecf\u63cf\u8ff0\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u4fe1\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f1a\u5bf9\u540e\u8005\u7684\u4fe1\u7528\u72b6\u51b5\u505a\u51fa\u8d1f\u9762\u66f4\u65b0\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u63a8\u65ad\u4f7f\u5f97\u6301\u6709\u975e\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u6b63\u5982 Acharya & Yorulmazer<\/span>\uff082008\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6301\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6295\u8d44\u3002Elliott \u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082018\uff09<\/span>\u8be6\u7ec6\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u529b\u91cf\uff1a\u4ed6\u4eec\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5728\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea4\u6362\u5f7c\u6b64\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u6743\u76ca\u6765\u5bf9\u51b2\u5176\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d1f\u503a\uff0c\u4f46\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u6b20\u5916\u90e8\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e00\u5b9a\u503a\u52a1\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u80a1\u4e1c\u627f\u62c5\u7684\u662f\u6709\u9650\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6709\u52a8\u673a\u5c06\u635f\u5931\u4ece\u81ea\u8eab\u8f6c\u5ac1\u7ed9\u503a\u6743\u4eba\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\u8f6c\u79fb\u4fc3\u4f7f\u94f6\u884c\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6536\u76ca\u8d8b\u4e8e\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u906d\u53d7\u5de8\u5927\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u540c\u6837\u53d7\u5230\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5168\u90e8\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u635f\u5931\u5219\u7531\u503a\u6743\u4eba\u627f\u62c5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5141\u8bb8\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u503a\u52a1\u548c\u80a1\u6743\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0cJackson & Pernoud<\/span>\uff082019\uff09<\/span>\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u5982\u4f55\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u6761\u4ef6\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u66f4\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u5176\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7b7e\u8ba2\u7684\u5408\u540c\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u6700\u5927\u56de\u62a5\u65f6\u4fdd\u6301\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5b83\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5f53\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u507f\u4ed8\u65f6\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u507f\u4ed8\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u65e0\u529b\u507f\u4ed8\u65f6\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u65e0\u529b\u507f\u4ed8\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u5173\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u4ece\u94f6\u884c\u80a1\u4e1c\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u6700\u4f18\u5747\u8861<\/span>\uff08Pareto-dominant equilibrium\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u79c1\u4eba\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u76d1\u7763\u548c\u58f0\u8a89\u673a\u5236\u4e5f\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7f13\u89e3\u6fc0\u52b1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u826f\u6295\u8d44\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u6210\u672c<\/span>\uff08Godlewski et al. 2012, Godlewski & Sandidov 2018\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u9009\u62e9\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u52a8\u6001\u673a\u5236\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7f13\u89e3\u67d0\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u9053\u5fb7\u98ce\u9669\u95ee\u9898\u901a\u5e38\u65e0\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u58f0\u8a89\u673a\u5236\u548c\u76d1\u7763\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u9664\uff08\u4f8b\u5982 Diamond 1991, Rajan 1992, Holmstrom & Tirole 1997\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u8bfe\u9898<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      4.2.  \u7f51\u7edc\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

      \u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u6211\u4eec\u56de\u987e\u5173\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u65f6\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u6fc0\u52b1\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u5176\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4f4e\u6548\u7387\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u4f4e\u6548\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5f62\u6210\u662f\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u53cd\u590d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\uff0c\u6700\u65e9\u53ef\u8ffd\u6eaf\u81f3 Jackson & Wolinsky<\/span>\uff081996\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u82e5\u5e72\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6838\u5fc3-\u8fb9\u7f18\u7ed3\u6784<\/span>\uff08core-periphery structure\uff09<\/span>\u2014\u2014\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7ecf\u9a8c\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u2014\u2014\u5185\u751f\u5730\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u57fa\u4e8e\u6838\u5fc3\u94f6\u884c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u89d2\u8272\u3002Babus & Hu<\/span>\uff082017\uff09<\/span>\u8868\u660e\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u5f53\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5177\u6709\u4ea4\u6613\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u8fd8\u5177\u6709\u4fe1\u606f\u529f\u80fd\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u89c4\u6a21\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5747\u8861\u7f51\u7edc\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u661f\u578b\u7ed3\u6784<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u638c\u63e1\u6709\u5173\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6267\u884c\u6240\u6709\u5408\u540c\uff0c\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u4ee5\u67d0\u79cd\u8d39\u7528\u4e2d\u4ecb\u6240\u6709\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u661f\u578b\u7f51\u7edc\u4f7f\u6240\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\u96c6\u4e2d\u5316\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b83\u662f\u53d7\u7ea6\u675f\u6709\u6548\u7684<\/span>\uff08constrained efficient\uff09<\/span>\u3002Farboodi<\/span>\uff082017\uff09<\/span>\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5e76\u975e\u7531\u4fe1\u606f\u6469\u64e6\u9a71\u52a8\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u83b7\u53d6\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u540c\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u80fd\u591f\u83b7\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u5219\u4ece\u5916\u56f4\u6d41\u5411\u5b83\u4eec\u3002\u8be5\u5747\u8861\u7f51\u7edc\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u65e0\u6548\u7387\u7684\u2014\u2014\u6838\u5fc3\u94f6\u884c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8fde\u63a5\u800c\u5916\u56f4\u94f6\u884c\u8fde\u63a5\u4e0d\u8db3\u2014\u2014\u5e76\u4e14\u6838\u5fc3\u94f6\u884c\u652b\u53d6\u4e86\u4e2d\u4ecb\u79df\u91d1<\/span>\uff08intermediation rents\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6b63\u5982Wang<\/span>\uff082017\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3-\u8fb9\u7f18\u7ed3\u6784\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6e90\u4e8e\u5e93\u5b58\u89c4\u6a21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u5177\u6709\u968f\u673a\u4ea4\u6613\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u4ecb\u673a\u6784\u53ef\u4ee5\u51fa\u73b0\u4ee5\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e2d\u4ecb\u673a\u6784\u6301\u6709\u968f\u673a\u5e93\u5b58\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u6570\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2d\u4ecb\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u51cf\u5c11\u5e93\u5b58\u98ce\u9669\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4ecb\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u529b\u91cf\u5f62\u6210\u6743\u8861\u3002\u6b63\u5982Wang\u6240\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u65e0\u6548\u7387\u7684\u5747\u8861\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u9891\u7387\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u4ea4\u6613\u5546<\/span>\uff08\u6838\u5fc3\u94f6\u884c\uff09<\/span>\u6570\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc7\u5c11\u6216\u8fc7\u591a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u9664\u4e86\u6838\u5fc3-\u8fb9\u7f18\u7ed3\u6784\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u6570\u91cf\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u4f4e\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5f71\u54cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\u5e76\u672a\u88ab\u94f6\u884c\u5b8c\u5168\u5185\u5316\u3002Acemoglu\u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082015b\uff09<\/span>\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5f7c\u6b64\u4e4b\u95f4\u8d37\u6b3e\u8fc7\u591a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u501f\u6b3e\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5206\u6563\u5f97\u4e0d\u591f\u5145\u5206\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5747\u8861\u5229\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u627f\u62c5\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u540c\u4e1a\u8d1f\u503a\u7684\u591a\u5143\u5316\u4e0d\u8db3\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff1a\u53cc\u8fb9\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u901a\u8fc7\u5747\u8861\u5229\u7387\u88ab\u5185\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u5374\u672a\u88ab\u5185\u5316\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5747\u8861\u7f51\u7edc\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u65e0\u6548\u7387\u7684\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0cJackson & Pernoud<\/span>\uff082019\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9009\u62e9\u8fc7\u5c11\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u6765\u6301\u6709\u503a\u6743\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7834\u4ea7\u65f6\u4ed6\u4eba\u6240\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/span><\/span>26<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      26. \u6b63\u5982 Duffie \u4e0e Wang\uff082016\uff09\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5408\u7ea6\u7ed3\u6784\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8bae\u4ef7\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff08bargaining\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5747\u8861\u7f51\u7edc\u5728\u5916\u5305\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u4e0a\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u504f\u597d<\/span>\uff08homophily\uff09\uff08Elliott et al. 2018\uff09<\/span>\uff1a\u94f6\u884c\u66f4\u613f\u610f\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u62e5\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u5efa\u7acb\u4ea4\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u4e0e\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u76f8\u5173\u8054\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u9762\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u5728\u6709\u9650\u8d23\u4efb\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u597d\u5904\uff0c\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4e0e\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u5efa\u7acb\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5f53\u51b2\u51fb\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4f1a\u540c\u65f6\u8fdd\u7ea6\u5e76\u5c06\u635f\u5931\u8f6c\u5ac1\u7ed9\u503a\u52a1\u6301\u6709\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u6548\u7387\u4f4e\u4e0b\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u5f62\u6210\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u732e\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bba\u6587\u8fd8\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u4fc3\u4f7f\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u5f62\u6210\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u7279\u522b\u5730\uff0cBabus<\/span>\uff082016\uff09<\/span>\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u94f6\u884c\u80fd\u591f\u627f\u8bfa\u76f8\u4e92\u63d0\u4f9b\u9488\u5bf9\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u5171\u540c\u4fdd\u9669\uff0c\u5219\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u79cd\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5728\u8be5\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u4f20\u67d3\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002Erol & Vohra<\/span>\uff082018\uff09<\/span>\u5219\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u7531\u94f6\u884c\u7fa4\u4f53\u504f\u79bb\u884c\u4e3a\u6240\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cd\u65b0\u5b89\u6392\u5176\u8fde\u63a5\u5e76\u5207\u65ad\u4e0e\u5916\u90e8\u673a\u6784\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7acb\u5373\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u82e5\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fde\u901a\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u7ec4\u4ef6\u7684\u6240\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u5c06\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u5efa\u7acb\u8fde\u63a5\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u6b63\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u5e94\u4e0e\u6240\u6709\u5b83\u5df2\u6709\u8def\u5f84\u53ef\u8fbe\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u5efa\u7acb\u76f4\u63a5\u8fde\u63a5\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\u5b8c\u5168\u8fde\u63a5\u4e14\u4e92\u4e0d\u76f8\u8fde\u7684\u96c6\u7fa4\u3002\u7fa4\u4f53\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u786e\u4fdd\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e2a\u96c6\u7fa4\u4e2d\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u6570\u91cf\u5c06\u662f\u4f7f\u6574\u4f53\u4ef7\u503c\u6700\u5927\u5316\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b9e\u8bc1\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\uff0c\u4f46 Erol & Vohra<\/span>\uff082018\uff09<\/span>\u7ed3\u8bba\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4f55\u6838\u5fc3-\u8fb9\u7f18\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u6838\u5fc3\u201d\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u8fde\u63a5\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4fe1\u8d37\u51bb\u7ed3\uff0c\u5373\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u505c\u6b62\u76f8\u4e92\u501f\u8d37\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9020\u6210\u7f51\u7edc\u8fc7\u5ea6\u7a00\u758f\u3002Acemoglu \u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082020\uff09<\/span>\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4fe1\u8d37\u51bb\u7ed3\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5982\u4f55\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6f5c\u5728\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u4ee5\u53ca\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4ecb\u6469\u64e6\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5c06\u8d44\u672c\u4ece\u50a8\u6237\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/span><\/h1>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \n
      <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n

      5. \u76d1\u7ba1\u4e0e\u5e72\u9884<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n

      \u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u6211\u4eec\u8ba8\u8bba\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8be5\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u5173\u6ce8\u793e\u4f1a\u6574\u4f53\u798f\u5229\uff0c\u5e76\u7406\u89e3\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6240\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4f4e\u6548\u7387\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      5.1. \u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

      \u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u59a5\u5584\u5e94\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u9762\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3002<\/span><\/span>27<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f8b\u5b50\u8bf4\u660e\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e86\u89e3\u7f51\u7edc\u7ec6\u8282\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bc6\u522b\u9700\u8981\u91cd\u70b9\u76d1\u7ba1\u548c\/\u6216\u6551\u52a9\u7684\u5173\u952e\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5982\u6b64\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      27. \u6b63\u5982 Jackson\uff082019\uff09\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8be6\u7ec6\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8bc4\u4f30\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5c31\u5982\u540c\u201c\u9a7e\u9a76\u6ca1\u6709\u4eea\u8868\u7684\u55b7\u6c14\u673a\u201d\u2014\u2014\u5373\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u76d1\u6d4b\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u64cd\u63a7\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u67d0\u4e9b\u65e0\u9700\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff08\u4f8b\u5982 S-risk\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u66f4\u7cbe\u786e\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u5b8c\u6574\u7f51\u7edc\u5ea6\u91cf\u6307\u6807<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u8fd1\u4f3c\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5b9e\u9645\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5176\u6548\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5927\u6253\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6548\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      \u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u800c\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4ee5\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8f93\u5165\u6570\u636e\u662f\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u6301\u6709\u7684\u5404\u7c7b\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u8d1f\u503a\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u6839\u636e\u6240\u5728\u53f8\u6cd5\u8f96\u533a\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u6570\u636e\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6709\u5173\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u53cd\u6620\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5c40\u90e8\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u9057\u6f0f\u54ea\u4e9b\u94f6\u884c\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u6216\u88ab\u5377\u5165\u5176\u4e2d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u867d\u7136\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u4ecd\u503c\u5f97\u5f3a\u8c03\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u4e3a\u4e86\u4fbf\u4e8e\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u503a\u52a1\u5408\u540c\u8fde\u63a5\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u5c40\u90e8\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5ea6\u91cf\u53ea\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u8d1f\u503a\u7684\u9762\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u6d89\u53ca\u5176\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u79cd\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u4e0d\u5145\u5206\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e3e\u4e00\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u5176\u4e2d\u4e24\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u62e5\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u540e\u679c\u5374\u5927\u76f8\u5f84\u5ead\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u592e\u673a\u6784\u53ea\u80fd\u6551\u52a9\u8fd9\u4e24\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ec5\u51ed\u5c40\u90e8\u4fe1\u606f\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u505a\u51fa\u6700\u4f18\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u56fe7\u6240\u793a\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u94f6\u884c1\u548c\u94f6\u884c4\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6536\u76ca\u5747\u4e3a0\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u5904\u4e8e\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u8bbe\u94f6\u884c2\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6536\u76ca\u4ecb\u4e8e <\/span><\/span>3D \/ 4<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u548c D<\/span><\/span> \u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u94f6\u884c3\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u4f4e\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>D \/ 4<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u94f6\u884c5\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u9ad8\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>D \/ 2<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u518d\u5047\u8bbe\u8fdd\u7ea6\u94f6\u884c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u56de\u6536\u7387\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u94f6\u884c1\u548c\u94f6\u884c4\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u5904\u4e8e\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u524d\u8005\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4f20\u67d3\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u94f6\u884c2\u548c\u94f6\u884c3\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u7f13\u51b2\u80fd\u529b\u6765\u5438\u6536\u94f6\u884c4\u8fdd\u7ea6\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u4f46\u65e0\u6cd5\u627f\u53d7\u94f6\u884c1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6551\u52a9\u94f6\u884c1\u53ef\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u9677\u5165\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\uff0c\u800c\u6551\u52a9\u94f6\u884c4\u5219\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u4efb\u4f55\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u9762\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5931\u8d25\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/section>\n

      \u56fe 7\uff1a\u7bad\u5934\u8868\u793a\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u5f52\u8fd8\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u94f6\u884c 1 \u548c\u94f6\u884c 4\uff08\u4ee5\u6d0b\u7ea2\u8272\u6807\u793a\uff09\u62e5\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u7ed3\u6784\uff1a\u5b83\u4eec\u5404\u81ea\u62e5\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u503a\u6743\uff08\u6bcf\u4e2a\u91d1\u989d\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>D\/2<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e24\u9879\u503a\u52a1\u8d23\u4efb\uff08\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3a <\/span><\/span>D\/2<\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>3D\/4<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u662f\u51c0\u503a\u52a1\u4eba\uff08net debtors\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u8fd8\u7a81\u663e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u751a\u81f3\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bc6\u522b\u54ea\u4e9b\u94f6\u884c\u9762\u4e34\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u94f6\u884c2\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c1\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ec5\u67e5\u770b\u94f6\u884c3\u7684\u8d26\u7c3f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u77e5\u9053\u94f6\u884c3\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5b9e\u73b0\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u94f6\u884c1\u5373\u5c06\u7834\u4ea7\uff0c\u94f6\u884c3\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u7684\u5371\u9669\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u90a3\u4e9b\u65e0\u6cd5\u770b\u5230\u90e8\u5206\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5916\u56fd\u673a\u6784\u3001\u5f71\u5b50\u94f6\u884c\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u4ec5\u62e5\u6709\u5c40\u90e8\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6570\u636e\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u4f1a\u5904\u4e8e\u52a3\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u53d7\u52302008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u6559\u8bad\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6d89\u53ca\u975e\u7410\u788e\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u5f00\u59cb\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u638c\u63e1\u5176\u7ba1\u8f96\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u5927\u591a\u6570\u94f6\u884c\u6700\u5927\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\u6240\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u80fd\u591f\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u6b27\u6d32\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u90e8\u5206\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u8d1f\u503a\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u5411\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f4d\u4e8e\u6b27\u6d32\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u975e\u7410\u788e\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e5f\u5f00\u59cb\u51fa\u73b0<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u53c2\u89c1Covi et al. 2019\uff0cFarmer et al. 2020\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\u62e5\u6709\u82f1\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u53cc\u8fb9\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u6790\u4e0d\u540c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\u4e0b\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08\u53c2\u89c1Ferrara et al. 2017\uff0cBardoscia et al. 2018\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u9700\u66f4\u591a\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u4ee5\u5916\u5730\u533a\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u3001\u8d85\u51fa\u591a\u6570\u53f8\u6cd5\u7ba1\u8f96\u533a\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u5f71\u5b50\u94f6\u884c\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      5.2.  \u5e94\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

      \u5728\u638c\u63e1\u90e8\u5206\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u5e76\u7406\u89e3\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u601d\u8003\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u5185\u5bb9\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u90e8\u5206\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba8\u8bba\uff1a\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u907f\u514d\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u907f\u514d\u5728\u5b58\u5728\u591a\u91cd\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0d\u826f\u5747\u8861\u548c\u53cd\u9988\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u4ece\u540e\u8005\u5f00\u59cb\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      5.2.1.  \u6d88\u9664\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u6548\u5e94 <\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u51e0\u79cd\u76d1\u7ba1\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u6e90\u4e8e\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u548c\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u5371\u673a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u5371\u673a\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u67d0\u4e9b\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e3b\u4f53\u534f\u8c03\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u5b58\u6b3e\u4eba\u534f\u8c03\u5931\u8bef\u5e76\u540c\u65f6\u63d0\u53d6\u5b58\u6b3e\u65f6\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u94f6\u884c\u6324\u5151\uff0c\u800c\u5f53\u6240\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u9009\u62e9\u505c\u6b62\u653e\u8d37\u65f6\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4fe1\u8d37\u51bb\u7ed3\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u4f18\u4e14\u6240\u6709\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u90fd\u504f\u597d\u7684\u5747\u8861\u2014\u2014\u5373\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u5371\u673a\u7684\u5747\u8861\u3002\u6d88\u9664\u8fd9\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u76d1\u7ba1\u8005\u4e3a\u6240\u6709\u8d37\u6b3e\u63d0\u4f9b\u62c5\u4fdd\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5b58\u6b3e\u4fdd\u9669<\/span>\uff08Diamond & Dybvig 1983\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u627f\u8bfa\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6700\u540e\u8d37\u6b3e\u4eba\u5e76\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u6ce8\u5165\u8d44\u91d1<\/span>\uff08Bebchuk & Goldstein 2011\uff0cDiamond & Rajan 2011\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u6d88\u9664\u534f\u8c03\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u7531\u4e8e\u534f\u8c03\u5931\u8d25\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u5371\u673a\u4e0e\u7531\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u635f\u5931\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0d\u8017\u8d39\u4efb\u4f55\u8d44\u672c\u6210\u672c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u963b\u6b62\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u5371\u673a\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e24\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u952e\u533a\u522b\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u63d0\u4f9b\u5b58\u6b3e\u62c5\u4fdd\u6216\u8d37\u6b3e\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u53ef\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u94f6\u884c\u6324\u5151\u6216\u4fe1\u8d37\u51bb\u7ed3\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u94f6\u884c\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\uff0c\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u65e0\u9700\u8fdb\u884c\u5e72\u9884\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5373\u4f7f\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u6ca1\u6709\u4e8b\u5148\u5bf9\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u501f\u8d37\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fdd\u9669\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u6216\u51bb\u7ed3<\/span>\uff08\u89c1\u56fe2\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u6216\u51bb\u7ed3\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u9002\u5f53\u6ce8\u5165<\/span>\uff08\u81f3\u5c11\u90e8\u5206\u53ef\u56de\u6536\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u8d44\u672c\u6765\u7ec8\u6b62\u3002Jackson & Pernoud<\/span>\uff082020\uff09<\/span>\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u6e90\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u503a\u6743\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u8981\u963b\u6b62\u5b83\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u5165\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u4ee5\u6e05\u507f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5faa\u73af\u3002\u8d44\u672c\u6ce8\u5165\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u542f\u52a8\u652f\u4ed8\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u907f\u514d\u9677\u5165\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u5747\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6ce8\u5165\u5230\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u5faa\u73af\u4e2d\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u8d44\u672c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u5b8c\u5168\u6536\u56de\uff0c\u4f7f\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u6551\u52a9\u653f\u7b56\u51e0\u4e4e\u65e0\u6210\u672c\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u8003\u8651\u56fe6a\u4e2d\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4eba\u5411\u94f6\u884c1\u6216\u94f6\u884c3\u6ce8\u51655\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u5219\u4f1a\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u6240\u6709\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u5747\u8861\uff1a\u94f6\u884c1\u53ef\u4ee5\u652f\u4ed8\u7ed9\u94f6\u884c2<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u6765\u81ea\u94f6\u884c4\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u6d41\u5165\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u94f6\u884c2\u518d\u652f\u4ed8\u7ed9\u94f6\u884c3\uff0c\u4f9d\u6b64\u7c7b\u63a8\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u6240\u6709\u503a\u52a1\u507f\u8fd8\u5b8c\u6bd5\u540e\uff0c\u6ce8\u5165\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u53ef\u4ee5\u6536\u56de\u8fd9\u7b14\u8d44\u91d1\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5411\u94f6\u884c2\u6216\u94f6\u884c4\u6ce8\u51655\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u5219\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u540c\u6837\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff1a\u4e0d\u826f\u7684\u201c\u5168\u90e8\u8fdd\u7ea6\u201d\u5747\u8861\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u5730\uff0c\u6b63\u5982Jackson & Pernoud<\/span>\uff082020\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u5173\u952e\u94f6\u884c\u662f\u6700\u9002\u5408\u6ce8\u5165\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u786e\u4fdd\u53ea\u4fdd\u7559\u6700\u4f18\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u6240\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6760\u6746\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u54ea\u4e9b\u94f6\u884c\u540c\u65f6\u5904\u4e8e\u591a\u4e2a\u5faa\u73af\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5728\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002Jackson & Pernoud<\/span>\uff082020\uff09<\/span>\u523b\u753b\u4e86\u6062\u590d\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u8d44\u672c\u6ce8\u5165\u91cf\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u660e\u5f53\u6d89\u53ca\u4f17\u591a\u94f6\u884c\u65f6\uff0c\u627e\u5230\u6700\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6709\u6548\u7684\u6551\u52a9\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/span>\uff08NP\u96be\u95ee\u9898\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ed3\u6784\u826f\u597d\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6838\u5fc3-\u8fb9\u7f18\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u82e5\u6838\u5fc3\u5185\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\uff0c\u5219\u5bfb\u627e\u6700\u4f18\u6551\u52a9\u653f\u7b56\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u76f4\u63a5\u548c\u76f4\u89c2\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u907f\u514d\u534f\u8c03\u5931\u7075\u548c\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u5371\u673a\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u662f\u8ba9\u6240\u6709\u4ea4\u6613\u901a\u8fc7\u4e2d\u592e\u5bf9\u624b\u65b9<\/span>\uff08CCP\uff09<\/span>\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u96c6\u4e2d\u6e05\u7b97\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5141\u8bb8\u4e49\u52a1\u7684\u591a\u8fb9\u51c0\u989d\u7ed3\u7b97\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u503a\u6743\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u591a\u91cd\u5747\u8861\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002Csoka & Herings<\/span>\uff082018\uff09<\/span>\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u652f\u4ed8\u6e05\u7b97\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u96c6\u4e2d\u5316\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u597d\u5904\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u6e05\u7b97\u8fc7\u7a0b\u603b\u662f\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u94f6\u884c\u4ef7\u503c\u5e26\u6765\u6700\u4f73\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u800c\u5206\u6563\u6e05\u7b97\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5219\u4f1a\u6536\u655b\u5230\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u5747\u8861\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4ece\u957f\u8fdc\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u626d\u66f2\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u627f\u62c5\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u7b2c5.3\u8282\u4e2d\u8ba8\u8bba\u76d1\u7ba1\u4e0e\u6fc0\u52b1\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      5.2.2.  \u4e8b\u524d\u51c6\u5907\u91d1\u6216\u8d44\u672c\u8981\u6c42\u4e0e\u4e8b\u540e\u6551\u52a9<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u5982\u7b2c2.2\u8282\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u67d0\u5bb6\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u635f\u5931\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u56e0\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u800c\u88ab\u653e\u5927\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7834\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u662f\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5e72\u9884\u52a0\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u6216\u81f3\u5c11\u6700\u5c0f\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u4eba\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u8fdb\u884c\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u4e8b\u524d(ex-ante)\u5bf9\u94f6\u884c\u8fdb\u884c\u76d1\u7ba1\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u907f\u514d\u6548\u7387\u4f4e\u4e0b\u7684\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5404\u79cd\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\u63aa\u65bd\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u8bbe\u5b9a\u51c6\u5907\u91d1\u3001\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6216\u8d44\u672c\u5145\u8db3\u7387\u8981\u6c42\uff1b<\/span><\/span>28<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u9650\u5236\u4e0d\u540c\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7c7b\u578b\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e34\u65f6\u6027\u5730\u76d1\u63a7\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u6bd4\u7387\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u5219\u662f\u5141\u8bb8\u94f6\u884c\u8fdb\u884c\u4efb\u610f\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4f46\u5f53\u51fa\u73b0\u8fde\u9501\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u65f6\uff0c\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u4ecb\u5165\u5e76\u6ce8\u5165\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u6700\u5c0f\u5316\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002Jackson & Pernoud<\/span> (2019) <\/span>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u9700\u8981\u5e72\u9884\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6240\u6d89\u53ca\u94f6\u884c\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff08financial centrality\uff09\uff08\u8be6\u89c1\u4e0b\u6587\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span>29<\/span><\/sup> \u5982\u679c\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u8db3\u591f\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u5b83\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u662f\u9009\u62e9<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u4e8b\u524d<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u76d1\u7ba1\u8fd8\u662f<\/span><\/span>\u4e8b\u540e<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6551\u52a9\uff0c\u5c06\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\uff1a\u5373\uff0c\u5f3a\u5236\u94f6\u884c\u6301\u6709\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u6240\u635f\u5931\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u56de\u62a5\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u6551\u52a9\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/span><\/span>30,31<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      28. Mart\u00ednez \u7b49\u4eba\uff082020\uff09\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u8d44\u672c\u4e0e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u76d1\u7ba1\u8981\u6c42\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u5176\u6548\u679c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u53f8\u6cd5\u8f96\u533a\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u4ea4\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cKaramysheva \u4e0e Seregina\uff082020\uff09\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u8de8\u56fd\u98ce\u9669\u7f13\u89e3\u65b9\u9762\u5177\u6709<\/span><\/span>\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff08spillovers\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      29. \u5173\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6027\uff08centrality\uff09\u4e0e\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\uff08prudential regulation\uff09\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u53c2\u8003 Belhaj \u7b49\u4eba\uff082020\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      30. \u5173\u4e8e 2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u653f\u5e9c\u6551\u52a9\u6210\u672c\uff08bailout costs\uff09\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u53c2\u8003 Lucas\uff082019\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      31. \u6709\u5173\u94f6\u884c\u6551\u52a9\u8fd8\u9700\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4ed6\u91cd\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u6551\u52a9\u94f6\u884c\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u63d0\u4f9b\u8d44\u672c\u5e76\u671f\u671b\u672a\u6765\u6536\u56de\u3002\u82e5\u4ee5\u503a\u52a1\u5f62\u5f0f\u63d0\u4f9b\u6551\u52a9\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u8fdd\u7ea6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff1b\u800c\u5982\u679c\u4ee5\u80a1\u6743\u5f62\u5f0f\u63d0\u4f9b\u6551\u52a9\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5bf9\u56f0\u5883\u94f6\u884c\u65bd\u52a0\u989d\u5916\u7684\u507f\u4ed8\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      32. \u5728\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u6838\u5fc3\u2013\u8fb9\u7f18\u578b\u7f51\u7edc\uff09\uff0c\u5173\u6ce8\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u201c\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6027\u201d\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u663e\u8457\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5f71\u54cd\uff1b\u8fd9\u4e0e\u5728\u8f83\u4e3a\u89c4\u5219\uff08regular\uff09\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff08\u53c2\u89c1 Capponi \u4e0e Chen\uff0c2015\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      \u786e\u5b9a\u54ea\u4e9b\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u8d21\u732e\u6700\u5927\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u501f\u52a9<\/span><\/span>\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6027<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u51e0\u79cd\u8861\u91cf\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u67d0\u4e00\u94f6\u884c\u9762\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u66b4\u9732\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span>32<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u5355\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7d27\u6025\u629b\u552e<\/span>\uff08Duarte & Eisenbach 2018\uff1bEngle & Ruan 2019\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u94f6\u884c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e4b\u95f4\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7ed3\u6784<\/span>\uff08Billio et al. 2012\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u4f53\u73b0\u4f20\u67d3\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u5219\u57fa\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u5408\u540c\u7684\u5e95\u5c42\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5e76\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u98ce\u9669\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Amini et al. 2016\uff1bHauton & H\u00e9am 2016\uff1bJackson & Pernoud 2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cJackson & Pernoud <\/span>(2019) <\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u8861\u91cf\u94f6\u884c\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u57fa\u4e8e\u57fa\u7840\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4ece <\/span><\/span>p<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u53d8\u4e3a <\/span><\/span>p’<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u65f6\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7ed9\u5b9a\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u5408\u540c\u548c\u8d1f\u503a\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u8e2a\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d8\u5316\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u5e76\u5f71\u54cd\u6240\u6709\u673a\u6784\u7684\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u67d0\u4e00\u94f6\u884c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u53d8\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u5176\u7cfb\u7edf\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u6240\u6709\u5916\u90e8\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6700\u7ec8\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u603b\u53d8\u52a8\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u4ece\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0cDemange <\/span>(2016)<\/span> \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d1f\u503a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u5747\u8861\u503a\u52a1\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u5979\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u7684<\/span><\/span>\u5a01\u80c1\u6307\u6570 (threat index)<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5373\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u76f4\u63a5\u6301\u6709\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u589e\u52a0\u5bf9\u5176\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u603b\u503a\u52a1\u507f\u8fd8\u989d\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u5145\u8db3\u7684\u673a\u6784\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u80fd\u591f\u5168\u989d\u507f\u8fd8\u503a\u52a1\u3002\u800c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fdd\u7ea6\u673a\u6784\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u4e25\u683c\u4e3a\u6b63\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u507f\u8fd8\u66f4\u5927\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u507f\u8fd8\u66f4\u591a\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u7c7b\u63a8\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\u5728\u94f6\u884c\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u6269\u6563\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7531\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u7684\u201c\u5a01\u80c1\u6307\u6570\u201d\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6d4b\u5ea6\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fb9\u9645\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u201c\u8fb9\u9645\u201d\u6307\u7684\u662f\u53d8\u5316\u8db3\u591f\u5c0f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u4efb\u4f55\u8fdd\u7ea6\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4f46\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u652f\u4ed8\u6d41\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u516c\u5171\u6551\u52a9\u4f1a\u7ed9\u76d1\u7ba1\u8005\u5e26\u6765\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5f53\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6551\u52a9\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u503a\u878d\u8d44\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u538b\u4f4e\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u94f6\u884c\u6301\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6076\u5316\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6551\u52a9\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u5176\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u5f3a\u5316\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u5faa\u73af\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a<\/span><\/span>\u5384\u8fd0\u5faa\u73af\uff08doom loop\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u662f\u5927\u8870\u9000\u4e4b\u540e\u6b27\u6d32\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8bf1\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002Capponi et al.<\/span> (2020) <\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u8fd9\u79cd\u653e\u5927\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6b64\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u523b\u753b\u4e86\u6700\u4f18\u6551\u52a9\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bba\u6587\u90fd\u5173\u6ce8\u91d1\u878d\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u4f46\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u66f4\u5e94\u5173\u6ce8\u5176\u5bf9\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\uff1a\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6295\u5165-\u4ea7\u51fa\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5c0f\u51b2\u51fb\u88ab\u653e\u5927\uff0c\u5176\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u653e\u5927\u6536\u76ca\u51b2\u51fb\u5e76\u5f71\u54cd\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u7c7b\u4f3c<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982 Acemoglu \u7b49\uff0c2012\uff1bBarrot & Sauvagnat\uff0c2016\uff1bRamirez\uff0c2017\uff1bHerskovic\uff0c2018\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8981\u786e\u5b9a\u8d44\u672c\u6ce8\u5165\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u6df1\u5165\u4e86\u89e3\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0e\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c1a\u672a\u53d7\u5230\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      5.3.  \u76d1\u7ba1\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u53cd\u9988<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

      \u524d\u4e00\u8282\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u4f46\u5047\u8bbe\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u662f\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5185\u751f\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u76d1\u7ba1\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5b83\u4eec\u3002\u76d1\u7ba1\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e92\u52a8\u4ec5\u90e8\u5206\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5bf9\u76d1\u7ba1\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u4e00\u4e9b\u6bd4\u8f83\u9759\u6001\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u679c\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u542b\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      5.3.1. \u76d1\u7ba1\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u6fc0\u52b1<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u94f6\u884c\u9884\u671f\u5230\u653f\u5e9c\u4f1a\u5b9e\u65bd\u6551\u52a9\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u9053\u5fb7\u98ce\u9669\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u94f6\u884c\u4e0d\u518d\u627f\u62c5\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/span><\/span>33<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u8fd9\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8f83\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u63a7\u5236\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u80a1\u4e1c\u5728\u6551\u52a9\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u83b7\u5f97\u4ef7\u503c\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u503a\u52a1\u6301\u6709\u4eba\u5219\u4f1a\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u5e0c\u671b\u907f\u514d\u7834\u4ea7\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u6709\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0e\u80a1\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u786e\u5b9e\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff1b\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cDam & Koetter<\/span>\uff082012\uff09<\/span>\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6551\u52a9\u63aa\u65bd\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5fb7\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u627f\u62c5\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0cCalomiris & Jaremski<\/span>\uff082019\uff09<\/span>\u7814\u7a76\u4e8619\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f15\u5165\u5b58\u6b3e\u4fdd\u9669\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5b58\u6b3e\u4fdd\u9669\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u7eaa\u5f8b\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u94f6\u884c\u627f\u62c5\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u94f6\u884c\u7834\u4ea7\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u88ab\u626d\u66f2\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u3002\u516c\u5171\u6551\u52a9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f71\u54cd\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f71\u54cd\u5b83\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5747\u8861\u7ed3\u6784<\/span>\uff08Erol\uff0c2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u6551\u52a9\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u51fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e8c\u7ea7\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\uff09\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4f1a\u5185\u751f\u5730\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u5ea6\u805a\u7c7b\u4e14\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u7ed3\u6784<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u94f6\u884c\u9884\u671f\u5230\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u6551\u52a9\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5bf9\u4f20\u67d3\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u5ea6\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5f15\u5165\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u7f51\u7edc\u5371\u5bb3\u201d\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5747\u8861\u7f51\u7edc\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4f4e\u805a\u7c7b\u3001\u9ad8\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6551\u52a9\u653f\u7b56\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u53cd\u5411\u6548\u5e94\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u5176\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u5178\u578b\u9053\u5fb7\u98ce\u9669\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      33. \u6b63\u5982 Elliott \u7b49\u4eba\uff082014\uff09\u6240\u793a\uff08\u89c1\u8865\u5145\u9644\u5f55\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u79c1\u4eba\u6551\u52a9\u4e2d\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u5982\u679c\u77e5\u9053\u5728\u7834\u4ea7\u65f6\u4f1a\u88ab\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u6551\u52a9\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u52a8\u673a\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u627f\u62c5\u7684\u7834\u4ea7\u540e\u679c\u8f83\u5c11\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      \u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u5982\u4f55\u54cd\u5e94\u76d1\u7ba1\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u8fd8\u5f88\u5c11\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u663e\u8457\u4f8b\u5916\u662fAnderson\u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082019\u5e74\uff09<\/span>\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u8003\u5bdf\u4e861863-1864\u5e74\u300a\u56fd\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u6cd5\u300b<\/span>\uff08National Banking Acts\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u4f53\u7cfb\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6cd5\u6848\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u51c6\u5907\u91d1\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u5e76\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u51c6\u5907\u91d1\u5c42\u7ea7\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u94f6\u884c\u4f53\u7cfb\u66f4\u52a0\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5c11\u6570\u6838\u5fc3\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u94f6\u884c\u4f4d\u4e8e\u6307\u5b9a\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u57ce\u5e02\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u6784\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u591a\u6837\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u5bb6\u6838\u5fc3\u94f6\u884c\u5012\u95ed\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      5.3.2.  \u516c\u5171\u6551\u52a9\u3001\u79c1\u4eba\u81ea\u6551\u4e0e\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u9009\u62e9<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u9274\u4e8e\u516c\u5171\u6551\u52a9\u7684\u9ad8\u6602\u8d22\u52a1\u6210\u672c\u53ca\u5176\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u626d\u66f2\u6027\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u5173\u6ce8\u901a\u8fc7\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fdd\u7ea6\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u540e\u3002\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u201c\u81ea\u6551\u201d\u65b9\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08\u5373\uff1a\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u65f6\u5bf9\u5176\u8fdb\u884c\u63f4\u52a9\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u6fc0\u52b1\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6fc0\u52b1\u53c8\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9632\u6b62\u67d0\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u5927\u4e8e\u6551\u52a9\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5219\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u52a8\u673a\u53bb\u6551\u52a9\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6536\u76ca\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u591f\u963b\u6b62\u8fdd\u7ea6\u94fe\u7684\u6269\u6563\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u4f1a\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f20\u64ad\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u4e5f\u6fc0\u52b1\u4e86\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u6551\u52a9\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u52a0\u4e92\u8054\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u53ef\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5e76\u4fc3\u8fdb\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6295\u8d44<\/span>\uff08Leitner, 2005\uff09<\/span>\u3002Kanik<\/span>\uff082019\uff09<\/span>\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u7834\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u5982\u4f55\u8bf1\u5bfc\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u6551\u52a9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u8fdd\u7ea6\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/span><\/span>34<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u8054\u76df\u5171\u540c\u884c\u52a8\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u660e\u5177\u6709\u4e2d\u7b49\u4f9d\u8d56\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u975e\u805a\u96c6\u6027\u7f51\u7edc\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u6700\u4f18\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u6548\u679c\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f51\u7edc\u662f\u9ad8\u5ea6\u805a\u96c6\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u635f\u5931\u65e0\u6cd5\u88ab\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u5f3a\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u5b8c\u5168\u5185\u5316\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6551\u52a9\u6c34\u5e73\u6548\u7387\u4f4e\u4e0b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u53ef\u80fd\u975e\u5e38\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u90fd\u80fd\u4ece\u907f\u514d\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cBernard \u7b49\u4eba<\/span>\uff082017\uff09<\/span>\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u516c\u5171\u6551\u52a9\u4e0e\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u81ea\u6551\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u80fd\u591f\u53ef\u4fe1\u5730\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5e72\u9884\u65f6\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u6fc0\u52b1\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u81ea\u6551\u884c\u4e3a\uff1b\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53ea\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u5e72\u9884\u65f6\u4f20\u67d3\u6548\u5e94\u8db3\u591f\u6709\u9650\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8db3\u591f\u5927\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4e92\u8054\u6027\u4f1a\u4f7f\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u66f4\u6709\u52a8\u529b\u4ecb\u5165\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u6fc0\u52b1\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u8fdb\u884c\u81ea\u6551\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u80fd\u591f\u83b7\u5f97\u8db3\u591f\u9ad8\u7684\u7531\u81ea\u6551\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u4efd\u989d\u65f6\u624d\u4f1a\u53c2\u4e0e\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6536\u76ca\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/span>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u8d8a\u591a\u6837\u5316\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u94f6\u884c\u5c31\u8d8a\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u51fa\u624b\u76f8\u52a9\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
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      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
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      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      34. \u6b63\u5982 Rogers \u548c Veraart\uff082013\uff09\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u7834\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      5.3.3.  \u5f71\u5b50\u94f6\u884c\u4e0e\u52a8\u6001\u76ee\u6807<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u4e14\u68d8\u624b\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u5176\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u900f\u660e\u3002<\/span><\/span>35<\/span><\/sup><\/span><\/span>\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u6d89\u53ca\u591a\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ea4\u6613\u5404\u79cd\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u590d\u6742\u4e14\u591a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u590d\u6742\u6027\u662f\u5bf9\u76d1\u7ba1\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u901a\u8fc7\u5f15\u5165\u91d1\u878d\u521b\u65b0\u548c\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u6765\u89c4\u907f\u76d1\u7ba1\u9650\u5236<\/span>\uff08Silber, 1983\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span>36<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u6b64\u7c7b\u4ea4\u6613\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u573a\u5916\u5e02\u573a<\/span>\uff08OTC\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9664\u975e\u5f3a\u5236\u62ab\u9732\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u4ea4\u6613\u53cc\u65b9\u77e5\u6653\u3002\u5728\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5b8c\u6574\u7f51\u7edc\u6570\u636e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0cRam\u00edrez<\/span>\uff082019\uff09<\/span>\u63a2\u7d22\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u5373\u8bbe\u8ba1\u51fa\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u63d0\u5347\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u65f6\u4ecd\u662f\u6700\u4f18\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5373\u4f7f\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u62e5\u6709\u5176\u7ba1\u8f96\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u6240\u6709\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u4f1a\u8ba1\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u5728\u76d1\u7ba1\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5916\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff0c\u76d1\u63a7\u6574\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u96be\u5ea6\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u76d1\u7ba1\u8005\u66f4\u96be\u83b7\u5f97\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5168\u9762\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5f71\u5b50\u94f6\u884c\u4f53\u7cfb\u5177\u6709\u5185\u751f\u6027\uff0c\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u53d7\u76d1\u7ba1\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u9650\u5236\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u800c\u6269\u5f20\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c1933\u5e74\u300a\u683c\u62c9\u65af-\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5c14\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u4e2d\u7684Q\u6761\u4f8b<\/span>\uff08Regulation Q\uff09<\/span>\u7981\u6b62\u94f6\u884c\u5411\u652f\u7968\u8d26\u6237\u652f\u4ed8\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c4\u5b9a\u5c31\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u66ff\u4ee3\u6027\u7684\u4ed8\u606f\u6d3b\u671f\u5b58\u6b3e\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5982\u50a8\u84c4\u8d37\u6b3e\u534f\u4f1a\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u5b58\u6b3e\u8d26\u6237\u3002\u5f5320\u4e16\u7eaa50\u5e74\u4ee3\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7eb7\u7eb7\u5c06\u8d44\u91d1\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u5f71\u5b50\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Lucas 2013\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u53d7\u5230\u76d1\u7ba1\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u4e0d\u53d7\u76d1\u7ba1\u7684\u673a\u6784\u5f62\u5f0f\u53c8\u4f1a\u968f\u4e4b\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u53c2\u4e0e\u67d0\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u4ecb\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u673a\u6784\u79cd\u7c7b\u5df2\u7ecf\u975e\u5e38\u5e9e\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u4ece\u66f4\u5b8f\u89c2\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u76d1\u7ba1\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u8fdc\u672a\u660e\u786e\u3002\u76d1\u7ba1\u8005\u5e94\u5728\u4f55\u5904\u5212\u7ebf\uff0c\u5c06\u54ea\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u89c6\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5e76\u52a0\u4ee5\u76d1\u7ba1\uff0c\u800c\u54ea\u4e9b\u5219\u4e0d\u7eb3\u5165\u76d1\u7ba1\uff1f\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u50cf\u62e5\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u6350\u8d60\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u79c1\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5927\u578b\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u540c\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\u501f\u8d37\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u65e2\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0e\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e92\u52a8\u3002\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u94f6\u884c\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f20\u64ad\u51b2\u51fb\u5e76\u53c2\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u4f20\u67d3\uff1a\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u4ee5\u7c7b\u4f3c\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u76d1\u7ba1\uff1f<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      35. \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5173\u5fc3\u4fdd\u62a4\u5176\u4ea4\u6613\u5934\u5bf8\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u9690\u79c1\u3002Hastings \u7b49\u4eba\uff082020\uff09\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u76f8\u5173\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u4fdd\u62a4\u9690\u79c1\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u83b7\u53d6\u5173\u952e\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      36. Anderson \u7b49\u4eba\uff082020\uff09\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5f71\u5b50\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5982\u4f55\u4e0e\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u5267\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      5.4.  \u653f\u6cbb\u6311\u6218<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

      \u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u4e0a\u9762\u8ba8\u8bba\u6240\u8868\u660e\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u76d1\u7ba1\u7edd\u975e\u201c\u4e00\u5200\u5207\u201d\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6700\u4f18\u5e72\u9884\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u591a\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4f4d\u7f6e\u548c\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6027\u7b49\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u76d1\u7ba1\u8c03\u6574\u901f\u5ea6\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u4e14\u5e38\u5e38\u53d7\u5230\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5236\u7ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u67d0\u4e9b\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e9b\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u5173\u65b9\u53d7\u76ca\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u76d1\u7ba1\u5f80\u5f80\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u540e\u8fc5\u901f\u52a0\u5f3a<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u300a\u683c\u62c9\u65af-\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5c14\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u548c\u300a\u591a\u5fb7-\u5f17\u5170\u514b\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u9010\u6e10\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u3002<\/span><\/span>37<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span>\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u88c1\u91cf\u6743\u662f\u907f\u514d\u653f\u6cbb\u5468\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u88c1\u91cf\u6743\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u4f1a\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u88c1\u91cf\u6743\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u6a21\u7cca\u4e0d\u6e05\u7684\uff0c2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6743\u76f4\u63a5\u5e72\u9884\u5e76\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u3002\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u80fd\u591f\u5feb\u901f\u9002\u5e94\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      37. \u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u53c2\u9605 Aikman \u7b49\u4eba\uff082019\u5e74\uff09\u3001Duffie\uff082019\u5e74\uff09\u3001Jackson\uff082019\u5e74\uff09\u548c Tarullo\uff082019\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e86\u89e3\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u4ee5\u53ca\u5371\u673a\u524d\u540e\u76d1\u7ba1\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n


      <\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n


      <\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
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      162. \n

        Yellen J. 2013.<\/span><\/span>Interconnectedness and systemic risk: lessons from the financial crisis and policy implications: a speech at the <\/span><\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      163. \n

        American Economic Association\/American Finance Association Joint Luncheon, San Diego, California, January 4, 2013. <\/span><\/span><\/em>Speech 631, Board Gov. Fed. Reserve Syst., Washington, DC<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

        \n
        \n

        \u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u53ef<\/span>\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52a8<\/span><\/strong>\u67e5\u770b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


        <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
        \n
        \n
        \n
        \n

        \u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


        <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

        \u5f53\u524d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u906d\u53d7\u591a\u91cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5982\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u52a0\u5267\u3001\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6469\u64e6\u53ca\u4fc4\u4e4c\u51b2\u7a81\u7b49\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8fbe\u5230\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u673a\u6784\u53ca\u5f02\u8d28\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u5173\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5448\u73b0\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u4e0e\u7f51\u7edc\u5316\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5e38\u5f15\u53d1\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u6b63\u5982\u201c\u77e5\u5df1\u77e5\u5f7c\uff0c\u767e\u6218\u4e0d\u6b86\u201d\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u7cfb\u7edf\u63a2\u7a76\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u8bc6\u522b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u751f\u6210\u6f14\u5316\u673a\u5236\u53ca\u98ce\u9669\u6cbb\u7406\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u8ba4\u77e5\u3001\u5efa\u6a21\u4e0e\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8054\u5408\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u674e\u7ea2\u521a\u6559\u6388\u3001\u7231\u5c14\u5170\u90fd\u67cf\u6797\u5723\u4e09\u4e00\u5b66\u9662Brain Lucey\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5730\u8d28\u5927\u5b66\uff08\u5317\u4eac\uff09\u9ec4\u4e66\u57f9\u526f\u6559\u6388\u3001\u9996\u90fd\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u738b\u6cfd\u8bb2\u5e08\u3001\u5317\u4eac\u6797\u4e1a\u5927\u5b66\u5e78\u5c0f\u4e91\u526f\u6559\u6388\u53ca\u5317\u4eac\u5316\u5de5\u5927\u5b66\u738b\u6b23\u96c5\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u8d77\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u201d\u4e3b\u9898\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\u3002\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u81ea2025\u5e748\u67084\u65e5\u8d77\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u4e0019:00-21:00\u4e3e\u884c\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u6301\u7eed10\u5468\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u626b\u7801\u52a0\u5165\uff0c\u5171\u5efa\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u201d\u793e\u533a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

        \n
        \u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u89c1\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u6709\u6548\u5efa\u6a21\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u505a\u597d\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0e\u51b3\u7b56\uff1f | \u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u53d1\u5e03<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
        <\/strong><\/section>\n
        1. \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9047\u4e0a\u7269\u7406\u5b66\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u751f\u957f\u7684\u9897\u7c92\u6a21\u578b\u7b80\u4ecb<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong>
        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
        2. \u516c\u53f8\u89c4\u6a21\u53ca\u5176\u504f\u79bb\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u7834\u4ea7\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b0\u6307\u6807<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong>
        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
        3. \u4f7f\u7528\u65b0\u95fb\u6587\u7ae0\u548c\u8d22\u52a1\u6570\u636e\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u7834\u4ea7\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027 | \u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u8bba\u6587\u901f\u901230\u7bc7<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
        <\/strong><\/section>\n
        4. <\/span>\u6d8c\u73b0\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5982\u4f55\u7528\u6765\u5206\u6790\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1f | \u65b0\u8bfe\u4e0a\u7ebf<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span>
        <\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
        <\/strong>5. <\/span><\/strong>\u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\u7cbe\u54c1\u8bfe\u7a0b\u514d\u8d39\u5f00\u653e\uff0c\u89e3\u9501\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e AI \u65b0\u4e16\u754c<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

        6. \u9ad8\u8003\u5206\u6570\u53ea\u662f\u5f20\u5165\u573a\u5238\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u79d1\u7814\u5192\u9669\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u542f\u822a\uff01<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

        7.<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span> <\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span>\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u524d\u6cbf\u5341\u8bb2\uff1a\u7406\u89e3\u81ea\u7136\u3001\u751f\u547d\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


        <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        \u6458\u8981 \u6211\u4eec\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0e\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u6cd5\uff0c\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u5916\u90e8\u6027\uff08\u5982\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3001\u76f8\u5173\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u3001\u629b\u552e\uff09\u548c\u611f\u77e5\u53ca\u53cd\u9988\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u5982\u94f6\u884c\u6324\u5151\u3001\u4fe1\u8d37\u51bb\u7ed3\uff09\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u6700\u4f18\u76d1\u7ba1\u4e0e\u6551\u52a9\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6027\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u7279\u5f81…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":63232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63263"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=63263"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63263\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/63232"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=63263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=63263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=63263"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=63263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}