{"id":63484,"date":"2025-08-13T18:10:16","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T10:10:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=63484"},"modified":"2025-08-13T18:10:16","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T10:10:16","slug":"science%ef%bc%9a%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e7%9a%84%e5%88%b6%e5%ae%9a%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e8%b7%a8%e5%ad%a6%e7%a7%91%e7%9a%84%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e4%b8%8e%e8%a1%8c%e4%b8%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=63484","title":{"rendered":"Science\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u9700\u8981\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u5efa\u6a21"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u5362\u5361\u65af\u6279\u8bc4\uff08Lucas critique\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e3b\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u89c4\u5219\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u5185\u751f\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u5f53\u653f\u5e9c\u6539\u53d8\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\uff08\u5982\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u7ed9\u3001\u7a0e\u7387\u3001\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u73af\u5883\u8c03\u6574\u9884\u671f\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u539f\u6709\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7cfb\u6570\uff08\u5982\u6d88\u8d39\u5bf9\u6536\u5165\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u503e\u5411\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u7b49\uff09\u4e0d\u518d\u7a33\u5065\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08Network effects\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u2014\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u51b2\u51fb\u53ef\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08cascading effects\uff09<\/span>\u88ab\u653e\u5927\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u6e05\u7b97\u94f6\u884c<\/span>\uff08Bank of International Settlements\uff0cBIS\uff09<\/span>\u6700\u8fd1\u57fa\u4e8e\u5404\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u8054\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u8861\u91cf\u5168\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u91cd\u8981\u94f6\u884c<\/span>\uff08Global Systemically Important Banks\uff0cG-SIBs\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u4f20\u67d3<\/span>\uff08contagion\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u62d3\u6251<\/span>\uff08network topology\uff09<\/span>\u4ee5\u53ca\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u540c\u6837\u5173\u952e\uff1a\u5373\u4fbf\u5355\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u770b\u4f3c\u8d22\u52a1\u7a33\u5065\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5d29\u6e83[6]\u3002\u6355\u6349\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6548\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e8e\u91cf\u5316\u5bf9\u5355\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u538b\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u6574\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5df2\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6548\u5e94\u5728\u5e38\u89c4\u76d1\u7ba1\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u4ecd\u96be\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u5145\u5206\u8003\u8651\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7f51\u7edc\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0<\/span>\uff08information asymmetry\uff09<\/span>\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u5927\u6311\u6218\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u6240\u6301\u6709\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u4f4e\u4f30\u7cfb\u7edf\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5178\u578b\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u7f51\u7edc\u5f80\u5f80\u5448\u73b0<\/span><\/span>\u201c\u6838\u5fc3\u2014\u8fb9\u7f18\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u7ed3\u6784<\/span>\uff08core-periphery structure\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5c11\u6570\u5927\u578b\u6838\u5fc3\u94f6\u884c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e92\u8054\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e1a\u52a1\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u6a21\u578b\u4e0a\u53c8\u9ad8\u5ea6\u540c\u8d28\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6838\u5fc3\u94f6\u884c\u4e00\u65e6\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5176\u98ce\u9669\u4f1a\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u8fd9\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u53c8\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u96c6\u4f53\u9053\u5fb7\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08collective moral hazard\uff09<\/span>\u2014\u2014\u94f6\u884c\u77e5\u9053\u5728\u56f0\u5883\u4e2d\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u76d1\u7ba1\u90e8\u95e8\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u7f8a\u7fa4\u884c\u4e3a<\/span>\uff08herding behavior\uff09<\/span>\u5e76\u627f\u62c5\u66f4\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8981\u4f30\u8ba1\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u9700\u4f9d\u8d56\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7ec6\u7c92\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08granular\uff09<\/span>\u6570\u636e\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5546\u4e1a\u673a\u5bc6\u7b49\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u5f80\u6765\u5f80\u5f80\u96be\u4ee5\u516c\u5f00\u83b7\u53d6\u3002\u5df2\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4ece\u90e8\u5206\u4fe1\u606f\u91cd\u6784\u7f51\u7edc\u5e76\u4f30\u7b97\u7cfb\u7edf\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5de5\u5177[7]\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4ec5\u51ed\u516c\u5f00\u62ab\u9732\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u4fe1\u606f\u96be\u4ee5\u53ef\u9760\u8bc4\u4f30\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f46\u82e5\u5404\u94f6\u884c\u80fd\u5728\u4e0d\u6cc4\u9732\u5bf9\u65b9\u8eab\u4efd\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u516c\u5f00\u5176\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u7cbe\u5ea6\u5c06\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u9664\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u5957\u7efc\u5408\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u4e0e\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u63ed\u793a\u7f51\u7edc\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5355\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9<\/span>\uff08\u94f6\u884c\uff09<\/span>\u5931\u6548\u65f6\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u6ce2\u53ca\u540e\u679c\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u503a\u52a1\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u6307\u6570\u201d<\/span>\uff08DebtRank\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8861\u91cf\u91d1\u878d\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5404\u673a\u6784\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5[8]\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u201c\u8fc7\u4e8e\u6838\u5fc3\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5012\u201d<\/span>\uff08too-central-to-fail\uff09<\/span>\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u201c\u5927\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5012\u201d<\/span>\uff08too-big-to-fail\uff09<\/span>\u66f4\u5177\u7834\u574f\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e09\u3001\u4e3b\u4f53\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff08ABM\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


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\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Agent-Based Models\uff0cABMs\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u7c7b\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e3b\u4f53<\/span>\uff08agents\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u53ca\u5176\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u88ab\u660e\u786e\u5730\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\u51b3\u7b56\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c4\u5219\u5c06\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u6620\u5c04\u5230\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1 ABMs \u5728\u4ea4\u901a\u63a7\u5236\u3001\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u6216\u6218\u573a\u51b2\u7a81\u5206\u6790\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u66f4\u4e3a\u6210\u719f\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u2014\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u5df2\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u53ef\u559c\u6210\u679c\u3002Axtell [9]\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684 ABM\uff0c\u4ec5\u51ed\u5185\u90e8\u51b3\u7b56\u673a\u5236\u5c31\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u4e09\u5341\u591a\u79cd\u4f01\u4e1a\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u65e0\u9700\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u51fb\u3002ABMs \u8fd8\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u4e3a\u4f55\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u5448\u73b0\u96c6\u7fa4\u6027\u548c\u65f6\u53d8\u6027[10]\uff0c\u5e76\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u68c0\u9a8c\u5df4\u585e\u5c14\u94f6\u884c\u76d1\u7ba1\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6539\u9769\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\u52a8\u6001\u8c03\u6574\u98ce\u9669\u9650\u989d\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u2014\u5d29\u6e83\u5faa\u73af[11, 12]\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5c06\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u6001\u7684 ABM \u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5173\u4e8e\u8206\u8bba\u4f20\u64ad\u7684 ABM [13]\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u8206\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u4f20\u64ad\u5e76\u5f71\u54cd\u5b8f\u89c2\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ba1\u7406\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0e\u5f39\u6027\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u5b9e\u9a8c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4f53\u4e2a\u4f53\u51b3\u7b56\u89c4\u5219\u3001\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u6b64\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u884c\u4e3a<\/span>\uff08emergent macro behavior\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u4f9b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5b9e\u9a8c\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u4e2a\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u548c\u6574\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u504f\u79bb\u7406\u6027\u6709\u6548\u5747\u8861<\/span>\uff08rational efficient equilibrium\uff09<\/span>\u72b6\u6001[14]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08positive feedback systems\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u666e\u904d\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ef7\u683c\u6301\u7eed\u504f\u79bb\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u8d8b\u52bf\u8ddf\u968f<\/span>\uff08trend-following\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u7f8a\u7fa4\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08herding behavior\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u534f\u540c\u653e\u5927\u4e0b\uff0c\u50ac\u751f\u6295\u673a\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e0e\u5d29\u76d8[15]\u3002\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u5f0f\u5df2\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u5219\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u7ec6\u81f4\u5730\u63ed\u793a\u5176\u4f5c\u7528\u673a\u5236\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b8f\u89c2\u73b0\u8c61\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe 1. 2008\u5e74\u8377\u5170\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u7f51\u7edc\u5371\u673a\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u8be5\u56fe\u63cf\u7ed8\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u4f53\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u65f6\u4e92\u4e3a\u503a\u52a1\u4eba\u548c\u503a\u6743\u4eba\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u4f53\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u91cf\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u8bf4\u660e\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4e0e\u968f\u673a\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u57fa\u51c6\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u662f\u6709\u7528\u7684\u3002z-score\u8868\u793a\u5b9e\u9645\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u4f53\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u504f\u79bb\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u671f\u671b\u503c\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u6570\u3002\u8f83\u5c0f\u91cf\u7ea7\u7684z\u5206\u6570\uff08<3\uff09\u8868\u660e\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u8fd1\u4f3c\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u800c\u8f83\u5927\u91cf\u7ea7\u5219\u8868\u660e\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u968f\u673a\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u540c\u8d28\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5176\u94fe\u8def\u603b\u6570\u4e0e\u771f\u5b9e\u7f51\u7edc\u76f8\u540c\uff08\u4e0a\uff09\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u5f02\u8d28\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6bcf\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u6570\u4e0e\u771f\u5b9e\u7f51\u7edc\u76f8\u540c\uff08\u4e0b\uff09\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u6807\u51c6\u5206\u6790\u7684\u540c\u8d28\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u665a\u671f\u548c\u7a81\u7136\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u5316\uff082008\uff09\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\u3001\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u201c\u5371\u673a\u524d\u201d\u9636\u6bb5\uff082005-2007\u5e74\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u2014\u2014\u5047\u8bbe\u4e3b\u4f53\u6839\u636e\u8868\u73b0\u52a8\u6001\u5207\u6362\u81f3\u66f4\u4f18\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u89c4\u5219<\/span>\uff08heuristics\uff09<\/span>\u2014\u2014\u65e2\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2a\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u518d\u73b0\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8fd8\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u901a\u7528\u673a\u5236\u6765\u7ba1\u7406\u6b64\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u67d3<\/span>\uff08social contagion\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u82e5\u5c06\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u91d1\u878d\u76d1\u7ba1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e3a\u524a\u5f31\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u7ecf\u9002\u5f53\u6821\u51c6\u540e\uff0c\u4fbf\u80fd\u6210\u529f\u5730\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf[16]\u3002\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u5219\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u5e94\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

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\u56db\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u4eea\u8868\u76d8\uff1a\u5c55\u671b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f53\u524d\u6b63\u662f\u5b66\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u901a\u529b\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u826f\u673a\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u63a8\u52a8\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u5de5\u5177\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u76d1\u7ba1\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528[17]\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8f\u5927\u800c\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u613f\u666f\u662f\u2014\u2014\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u65f6\u6216\u8fd1\u5b9e\u65f6\u7684\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u2014\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u4eea\u8868\u76d8\u201d<\/span>\uff08policy dashboard\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u96c6\u6210\u8de8\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u9884\u8b66\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fdb\u884c\u6301\u7eed\u76d1\u6d4b\u4e0e\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u6216\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u8206\u60c5\u76d1\u63a7\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u4e0e\u5de8\u989d\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u635f\u5931\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u57fa\u7840\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6295\u5165\u5fae\u4e0d\u8db3\u9053\uff0c\u5374\u6709\u671b\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u5371\u673a\u7684\u9884\u9632\u4e0e\u5316\u89e3\u63d0\u4f9b\u5f3a\u5927\u52a9\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/ol>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n

    \u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \n

      M. Scheffer et al., Science 338, 344 (2012).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    2. \n

      T. Squartini et al., Sci. Rep. 3, 3357 (2013).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    3. \n

      R. M. May et al., Nature 451, 893 (2008).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    4. \n

      H. Heesterbeek et al., Science 347, aaa4339 (2015).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    5. \n

      R. E. Lucas Jr., Carnegie-Rochester Conf. Ser. Public Policy 1, 19 (1976).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    6. \n

      S. Battiston et al., J. Econ. Dynam. Control 36, 1121 (2012).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    7. \n

      G. Cimini et al., Sci. Rep. 5, 15758 (2015).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    8. \n

      S. Battiston et al., Sci. Rep. 2, 541 (2012).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    9. \n

      R. Axtell, \u201cEndogenous dynamics of multi-agent firms\u201d (Working paper version 1.5, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford 2014); www.css.gmu.edu\/~axtell\/Rob\/Research\/Pages\/Firms.html.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    10. \n

      B. LeBaron, in Handbook of Computational Economics, vol.2, Agent-Based Computational Economics, L.Tesfatsion, and K. L. Judd, Eds. (North-Holland,Amsterdam, 2006), pp. 1187\u20131233.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    11. \n

      S. Thurner et al., Quant. Finan. 12, 695 (2012).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    12. \n

      C. Aymanns, J. D. Farmer, J. Econ. Dyn. Control 50, 155 (2015).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    13. \n

      A. Flache, M. W. Macy, J. Conflict Resolut. 55, 970 (2011).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    14. \n

      T. Bao, C. Hommes, T. Makarewicz, \u201cBubble formation and (in)efficient markets in learning-to-forecast and \u2013optimize experiments\u201d (TI 2015-107\/II Working paper, Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, 2015); http:\/\/papers.tinbergen.nl\/15107.pdf<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    15. \n

      C. H. Hommes, Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2013).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    16. \n

      T. Bao, C. H. Hommes, \u201cWhen speculators meet constructors: Positive and negative feedback in experimental housing markets\u201d (CeNDEF Working paper 15-10, University of Amsterdam, Netherlands, 2015); http:\/\/bit.ly\/WP15-10.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    17. \n

      A. G. Haldane, \u201cOn microscopes and telescopes,\u201d Workshop on Socio-Economic Complexity, Lorentz Center, Leiden, 23 to 27 March 2015 (Bank of England, London, 2015); http:\/\/bit.ly\/1VIJlvX.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n


      <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      \n
      \n

      \u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u53ef<\/span>\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52a8<\/span><\/strong>\u67e5\u770b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/section>\n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      \u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

      \u5f53\u524d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u906d\u53d7\u591a\u91cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5982\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u52a0\u5267\u3001\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6469\u64e6\u53ca\u4fc4\u4e4c\u51b2\u7a81\u7b49\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8fbe\u5230\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u673a\u6784\u53ca\u5f02\u8d28\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u5173\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5448\u73b0\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u4e0e\u7f51\u7edc\u5316\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5e38\u5f15\u53d1\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u6b63\u5982\u201c\u77e5\u5df1\u77e5\u5f7c\uff0c\u767e\u6218\u4e0d\u6b86\u201d\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u7cfb\u7edf\u63a2\u7a76\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u8bc6\u522b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u751f\u6210\u6f14\u5316\u673a\u5236\u53ca\u98ce\u9669\u6cbb\u7406\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u8ba4\u77e5\u3001\u5efa\u6a21\u4e0e\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8054\u5408\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u674e\u7ea2\u521a\u6559\u6388\u3001\u7231\u5c14\u5170\u90fd\u67cf\u6797\u5723\u4e09\u4e00\u5b66\u9662Brain Lucey\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5730\u8d28\u5927\u5b66\uff08\u5317\u4eac\uff09\u9ec4\u4e66\u57f9\u526f\u6559\u6388\u3001\u9996\u90fd\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u738b\u6cfd\u8bb2\u5e08\u3001\u5317\u4eac\u6797\u4e1a\u5927\u5b66\u5e78\u5c0f\u4e91\u526f\u6559\u6388\u53ca\u5317\u4eac\u5316\u5de5\u5927\u5b66\u738b\u6b23\u96c5\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u8d77\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u201d\u4e3b\u9898\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\u3002\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u81ea2025\u5e748\u67084\u65e5\u8d77\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u4e0019:00-21:00\u4e3e\u884c\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u6301\u7eed10\u5468\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u626b\u7801\u52a0\u5165\uff0c\u5171\u5efa\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u201d\u793e\u533a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

      \"\u56fe\u7247\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

      \n
      \u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u89c1\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u6709\u6548\u5efa\u6a21\u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u505a\u597d\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0e\u51b3\u7b56\uff1f | \u91d1\u878d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u53d1\u5e03<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n

      \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n
      <\/strong><\/section>\n
      1. \u9a7e\u9a6d\u8d22\u52a1\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u4f01\u4e1a\u6307\u5357<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong>
      <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
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      <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
      3. \u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6307\u6570 | \u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
      <\/strong><\/section>\n
      4. <\/span>\u6d8c\u73b0\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5982\u4f55\u7528\u6765\u5206\u6790\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1f | \u65b0\u8bfe\u4e0a\u7ebf<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span>
      <\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
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      7.<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span> <\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span>\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u524d\u6cbf\u5341\u8bb2\uff1a\u7406\u89e3\u81ea\u7136\u3001\u751f\u547d\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a <\/span><\/span><\/section>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      \u5f15\u8a00 \u591a\u53d8\u4f20\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u65e2\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u3001\u4e5f\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u51e0\u8fd1\u5d29\u6e83\u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u957f\u6548\u51b2\u51fb\u30022008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u5c1d\u8bd5\u501f\u9274\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\uff08complexity theory\uff09\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u201d\uff08tipping points\uff09\u3001\u201c\u7f51\u7edc\u201d\uff08networks\uff09\u3001\u201c\u4f20\u67d3\u201d\uff08contagion…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":63475,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63484"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=63484"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63484\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/63475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=63484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=63484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=63484"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=63484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}