{"id":880,"date":"2018-07-09T01:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-07-08T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/swarma.org\/%swarma-paper%\/"},"modified":"2018-12-05T17:58:09","modified_gmt":"2018-12-05T09:58:09","slug":"%e5%89%8d%e6%b2%bf%e8%a7%a3%e8%af%bb%ef%bc%9a%e4%ba%ba%e7%b1%bb%e6%b5%81%e5%8a%a8%e7%9a%84%e5%bb%ba%e6%a8%a1%e5%8f%8a%e5%85%b6%e5%ba%94%e7%94%a8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=880","title":{"rendered":"\u524d\u6cbf\u89e3\u8bfb\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u53ca\u5176\u5e94\u7528"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u4ece\u4eba\u53e3\u666e\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u800c\u6765\u7684\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u901a\u52e4\u6d41<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a\u8bba\u6587\u539f\u6587<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n


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\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u662f\u5426\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff1f\u5728Physics Reports\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u7efc\u8ff0\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u4e2a\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u3001\u7fa4\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5176\u5728\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u9610\u91ca\u548c\u5c55\u671b\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u5bf9\u8fd9\u7bc7\u7efc\u8ff0\u7684\u89e3\u8bfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u4f55\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5730\u7406\u5b9a\u4f4d\u6570\u636e\u6fc0\u589e\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5f00\u59cb\u80fd\u591f\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u7fa4\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5e76\u53d1\u5c55\u51fa\u6a21\u578b\u4ece\u800c\u6355\u6349\u548c\u590d\u5236\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u8f68\u8ff9\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ea4\u901a\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u7b49\u5e94\u7528\u9886\u57df\u5c24\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u7fa4\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e00\u3001\u4e2a\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u6a21\u578b\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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 \u4e00\u822c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u7531\u63a5\u8fde\u7684\u79bb\u6563\u968f\u673a\u6b65\u9aa4\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6a21\u578b\u6d89\u53ca\u5728\u79bb\u6563\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u4f4d\u79fb(spatial displacement)\u0394Xi\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5982\u679c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"=0\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"=0\u65f6\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48N\u6b65\u540e\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u662f\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.1\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n


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\u79bb\u6563\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6a21\u578b\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u548cL\u00e9vy\u98de\u884c\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u5206\u6790\u4e2a\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u503c\u662f\u5747\u65b9\u4f4d\u79fb\u5e73\u65b9\u6839 (square root of the mean squared displacement, RMSD) \u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u7f29\u653e\uff0c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u3002\u5b83\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u79fb\u52a8\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u3002MSD\u7684\u7f29\u653e\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u5bf9\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7684\u6269\u6563\u8fd0\u52a8(diffusive motion)\u7c7b\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u7c7b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1.1. \u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8 <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u7c92\u5b50\u53ef\u4ee5\u91c7\u53d6\u6b65\u957f<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ee5\u76f8\u7b49\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5411\u5de6\u6216\u5411\u53f3\u79fb\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u65f6\u95f4t\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7c92\u5b50\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86N = tk\u4e2a\u6b65\u6570\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684k\uff0c\u7c92\u5b50\u5728\u65f6\u523bt\u7684\u4f4d\u79fb\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.2\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

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\u5176\u4e2d<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u548c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u662f\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u4f4d\u79fb\u7684\u5747\u503c\u548c\u65b9\u5dee\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4e00\u9636\u77e9\u4e3a\u96f6\u4e14<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5MSD\u662ft\uff0c<\/span>RMSD\u603b\u662f\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4t\u7684\u5e73\u65b9\u6839\u7f29\u653e\uff0c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u666e\u901a\u6269\u6563\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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1.2 L\u00e9vy\u98de\u884c<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span>\uff08L\u00e9vy Flight)<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\u4e0e\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f7f\u7528\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\u6765\u63a8\u5bfcL\u00e9vy\u98de\u884c\u3002\u4e00\u4e2aL\u00e9vy\u98de\u884c\u7531\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5c0f\u4f4d\u79fb\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c\u5076\u5c14\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u4f4d\u79fb\u3002\u5b83\u88ab\u6b63\u5f0f\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u72ec\u7acb\u540c\u5206\u5e03\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u603b\u548c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5355\u4e2a\u8df3\u8f6c\u7684PDF\u7531\u4e8e\u957f\u5c3e\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5177\u6709\u53d1\u6563\u7684\u4e8c\u9636\u77e9\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.4\uff09:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c0<\u03b2<2\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5c06\u6b65\u957f\u4e3a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0ck\u6b65\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u4f4d\u79fb\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u5219\u5c06\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u6807\u7684<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u603b\u548c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5982\u516c\u5f0f\uff081.4\uff09\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.5\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u5373L\u00e9vy-Khintchine\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u8be5\u5b9a\u7406\u8868\u660e<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u7684PDF\u5728N\u2192\u221e\u65f6\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u03b1\u7a33\u5b9a\uff08L\u00e9vy\uff09\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5206\u5e03\u5728\u5b9e\u6570\u57df\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5c01\u95ed\u5f62\u5f0f\uff1b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u7279\u5f81\u51fd\u6570\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5085\u7acb\u53f6\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u5b8c\u6210(Fourier space)\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5c3e\u90e8\u4f1a\u663e\u793a\u4e0e\u516c\u5f0f\uff081.4\uff09\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5e42\u5f8b\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.5\uff09\u5c06\u53d8\u91cf\u4ece<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u66f4\u6539\u4e3a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u83b7\u5f97\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.6\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5747\u65b9\u4f4d\u79fb\u7b49\u4e8e\u4e8c\u9636\u77e9\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.7\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c<\/span>L\u00e9vy\u98de\u884c\u7684RMSD\u5448\u73b0\u8d85\u6269\u6563\u5c5e\u6027\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u3002<\/span><\/strong>
<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong>1.3 \u8fde\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u662f\u79bb\u6563\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\u4e2d\uff0c\u8df3\u8f6c\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u662f\u7531\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u8df3\u8dc3\u957f\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u8fde\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\uff08CTRW\uff09\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694dt\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8df3\u8dc3\u6b21\u6570\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u8df3\u8dc3\u4e4b\u95f4\u6d41\u901d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff08\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u0394T\uff09\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/h2>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u8df3\u8dc3\u957f\u5ea6\u7684PDF\u662ff(\u0394x)\u800c\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u662f\u03c6(\u0394t)<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u5219CTRW\u5305\u62ec\u6210\u5bf9\u7684\u968f\u673a\u548c\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u0394X\u548c\u0394T\u4ece\u8054\u5408PDF\u4e2d\u62bd\u53d6\uff0cP(\u0394x\uff0c\u0394t)=f(\u0394x)\u03c6(\u0394t)\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u0394t\u4e4b\u540e\u51fa\u73b0\u957f\u5ea6\u0394x\u8df3\u8dc3\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7N\u6b65\uff0c\u603b\u8ba1\u4f4d\u79fb<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u548c\u603b\u65f6\u95f4<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u7531\u4e0b\u5f0f\u7ed9\u51fa\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.8\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684PDF\uff0cP(x\uff0ct)\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5085\u7acb\u53f6\u2014\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u53d8\u6362\u5f97\u5230\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.9\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u548c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u5206\u522b\u662f\u03c6(\u0394t)\u548cf(\u0394x)\u7684\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u548c\u5085\u7acb\u53f6\u53d8\u6362\u3002\u91c7\u53d6\u9006\u53d8\u6362\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.10\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u03c6(\u0394t)\u548cf(\u0394x)\u7684\u6e10\u8fd1\u884c\u4e3a(asymptotic behavior)\u6765\u5206\u6790P(x\uff0ct)\u7684\u8868\u8fbe\u5f0f\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u56db\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u03c6(\u0394t)\u548cf(\u0394x)\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u80a5\u5c3e\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u666e\u901a\u6269\u6563\uff1a<\/span><\/strong>\u5982\u679c\u03c6(\u0394t)\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\u548cf(\u0394x)\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\u90fd\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7684\uff0c\u5373<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u548c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6839\u636e\u516c\u5f0f1.9\u548c1.10\uff0c\u6e10\u8fd1\u5730\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.11\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"
<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2dD\u662f\u6269\u6563\u5e38\u6570\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u5b9a\u4e49\u826f\u597d\u7684\u8df3\u8dc3\u957f\u5ea6\u548c\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\u7684CTRW\uff0c\u6e10\u8fd1\u4e0a\uff08\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\uff09\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

L\u00e9vy\u98de\u884c\uff1a<\/span><\/strong>\u5982\u679c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u03c6(\u0394t)\u5177\u6709\u6709\u9650\u65b9\u5dee\uff0c\u5219\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5c31\u662fL\u00e9vy\u98de\u884c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8be5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684PDF\u7531\u4e0b\u5f0f\u7ed9\u51fa\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.12\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u662f\u7f29\u653e\uff08\u9650\u5236\uff09\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c<\/span>\u5982\u679c\u8df3\u8dc3\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u670d\u4ece\u5e42\u5f8b\u4ee5\u53ca\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u88ab\u826f\u597d\u5730\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u5c06\u9075\u5faa\u8d85\u6269\u6563\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8eL\u00e9vy\u98de\u884c\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5206\u6570\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\uff1a<\/span><\/strong>\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5177\u6709\u6709\u9650\u65b9\u5dee\u7684\u8df3\u8dc3\u957f\u5ea6\u4e0e\u5e42\u5f8b\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0cPDF\u662f\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1.13\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

H\u662f\u975e\u9ad8\u65af\u7684\u9650\u5236\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u6548\u679c\u662f\u51cf\u6162\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u5bf9\u4e8e\u03b1<1\u662f\u4e9a\u6269\u6563\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u4e8e1<\u03b1<2\u662f\u8d85\u6269\u6563\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6a21\u7cca\u8fc7\u7a0b(ambivalent processes)\uff1a<\/span><\/strong>\u5f53f(\u0394x)\u548c\u03c6(\u0394t)\u90fd\u662f\u80a5\u5c3e\u5206\u5e03\u65f6\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u7b2c\u56db\u79cd\u53d8\u5f62\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6269\u6563\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u5b8c\u5168\u7531\u03b1\u548c\u03b2\u6307\u5b9a\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u03b2<2\u03b1\uff0cCTRW\u662f\u8d85\u6269\u6563\u7684\uff1b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u03b2>2\u03b1\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e9a\u6269\u6563\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u03b2=2\u03b1\uff0c\u5219\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6536\u655b\u4e8e\u666e\u901a\u7684\u6269\u6563\/\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u6709\u53d1\u6563\u7684\u77e9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u56fe1\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u793a\u610f\u56fe\u3002\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6a21\u7cca\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u3002\u5bf9\u5404\u79cd\u6570\u636e\u6e90\uff08\u536b\u661f\u5b9a\u4f4d\u7cfb\u7edfGPS\uff0c\u624b\u673a\u8bbe\u5907\u8bb0\u5f55CDR\u7b49\uff09\u7684\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8df3\u8dc3\u957f\u5ea6\u548c\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u90fd\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5e42\u5f8b\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u4ece\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u8303\u56f4\u5206\u522b\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a0.42\u2264\u03b1\u22640.8\u548c0.31\u2264\u03b2\u22640.75\u3002<\/span>
<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"
<\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u56fe1\uff1a\u6587\u4e2d\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\uff08\u6e10\u8fd1\uff09\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u793a\u610f\u56fe\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7b49\u5f85\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u8df3\u8dc3\u957f\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\u7684\u51fd\u65700 <\u03b1<1\u5e76\u4e140 <\u03b2<2\u3002L\u00e9vy\u98de\u884c\uff0c\u5206\u6570\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u4ee5\u53ca\u666e\u901a\u6269\u6563\u662f\u5e7f\u4e49\u6a21\u7cca\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u6781\u9650\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u30102\u3011<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n

1.4 \u5bf9\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6a21\u578b\u7684<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4fee\u8ba2\u548c\u53d1\u5c55<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

 <\/span>\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u5b58\u5728\u81ea\u7531\u610f\u5fd7\u4ee5\u53ca\u4efb\u610f\u6027\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d41\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6700\u7b80\u5316\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u4f7f\u7528\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u548c\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u8fd0\u52a8\u8f68\u8ff9\u8fdc\u975e\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c4\u5f8b\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2a\u4eba\u672a\u6765\u7684\u53bb\u5411\u5e76\u6784\u5efa\u903c\u771f\u7684\u751f\u6210\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2a\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\uff1a(1) \u7531\u4e8e\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9891\u7e41\u5730\u56de\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u6216\u8005\u67d0\u4e9b\u5730\u70b9\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u51fa\u504f\u597d\u56de\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>(preferential return)<\/strong>\u30103\u3011\uff1b(2) \u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u70b9\u5982\u679c\u5728\u524d\u671f\u5148\u88ab\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5730\u70b9\u7684\u9891\u7387\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u7d2f\u79ef\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd1\u56e0\u6548\u5e94\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>(recency)<\/strong>\u30104\u3011\u5c06\u5730\u70b9\u7684\u9891\u7387\u4ee5\u53ca\u65f6\u95f4\u5148\u540e\u5206\u522b\u8003\u8651\u5728\u5185\u3002(3)\u57fa\u4e8e\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>(social-based models)<\/strong>\u30105\u3011\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u5c06\u4e2a\u4f53\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u6210\u5458\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2a\u4f53\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u5386\u53f2\u7eb3\u5165\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u9ad8\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2a\u4f53\u672a\u6765\u6d41\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u901a\u8fc7\u4e2a\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u751f\u6210\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u3002<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h2>\n

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<\/section>\n
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<\/section>\n
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\u4e8c\u3001\u7fa4\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u4f30\u8ba1\u4efb\u610f\u4e24\u4e2a\u5730\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u6bcf\u5355\u4f4d\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u65c5\u5ba2\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u7fa4\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u518d\u73b0\u51fa\u53d1\u5730\u2014\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u77e9\u9635\uff08OD\u77e9\u9635\uff0cOrigin-Destination Matrices\uff09\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\u57ce\u5e02\u6bcf\u5929\u7684\u901a\u52e4\u6570\u636e\uff09\u3002OD\u77e9\u9635\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea4\u901a\u8c03\u67e5\u3001\u4ea4\u901a\u91cf\u6216\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u5730\u7406\u5b9a\u4f4d\u7b49\u4fe1\u606f\u4ea4\u6d41\u6280\u672f\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4f30\u7b97\u3002<\/span>
<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h1>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u7fa4\u4f53\u6d41\u52a8\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u4e3b\u8981\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u601d\u60f3\u6d41\u6d3e\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u7c7b\u662f\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\uff0c\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u5730\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u65c5\u884c\u6b21\u6570\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7269\u7406\u8ddd\u79bb\u7684\u9012\u51cf\u51fd\u6570\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7c7b\u662f\u5e72\u9884\u673a\u4f1a\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\uff0c\u5047\u5b9a\u5e72\u9884\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u5730\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u6f5c\u5728\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u5efa\u6a21\u63d0\u4f9b\u6570\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u6210\u529f\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u4f30\u7b97\u5176\u4ed6\u7a7a\u95f4\u6d41\u91cf\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8d27\u8fd0\u91cf\u548c\u57fa\u4e8e\u57ce\u5e02\u95f4\u7684\u901a\u8bdd\u8bb0\u5f55\u4f30\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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2.1 \u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

George K. Zipf\u4e8e1946\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ba1\u7b97\u6d41\u52a8\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u30106\u3011\uff0c\u8be5\u516c\u5f0f\u53d7\u725b\u987f\u5f15\u529b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span>\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0cZipf\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u8ddd\u79bb\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u8fc1\u79fb\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u533a\u57dfi\u548cj\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fc1\u79fb\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6Tij\ufeff\ufeff\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fd1\u4f3c\u4e3a\uff08\u516c\u5f0f2.1\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u5176\u4e2d<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u5206\u522b\u662f\u5404\u5730\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cf\uff0c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u662fi\u548cj\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h2>\n


<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u79bb\u5f00\u533a\u57dfi\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6b21\u6570\u4e0e\u5176\u4eba\u53e3\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u533a\u57dfj\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u4e0ePj\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5c31\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u6210\u672c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e0b\u5217\u516c\u5f0f\u6982\u62ec\uff08\u516c\u5f0f2.2\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2dK\u662f\u5e38\u6570\uff0c\u8d28\u91cf<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u548c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u4e0e\u79bb\u5f00i\u6216j\u5438\u5f15\u7684\u884c\u7a0b\u6570\u91cf\u76f8\u5173\uff0c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6469\u64e6\u7cfb\u6570\u201d\u662f\u8ddd\u79bb\u7684\u9012\u51cf\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u7248\u672c\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u91cf\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5730\u533a\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff08\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\uff09\uff1b\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5e38\u7528\u51fd\u6570\u5f62\u5f0f\u662f<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u6216<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u30107\u3011\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e0e\u539f\u59cb\u7248\u672c\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4eba\u5747GDP\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u8d28\u91cf\u30108\u30019\u3011\u8ddd\u79bb\u51fd\u6570<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u901a\u5e38\u7528\u5e42\u5f8b\u6216\u6307\u6570\u5f62\u5f0f\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\uff08\u516c\u5f0f2.3\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u5f62\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u884c\u7a0b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u5730\u70b9\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u7c92\u5ea6\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ea4\u901a\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6709\u6240\u6539\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4ea4\u901a\u89c4\u5212\u9886\u57df\u3001\u5730\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u5f97\u4ee5\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u662f\u6d41\u52a8\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7c97\u7565\u7b80\u5316\uff0c\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b83\u8fdc\u8fdc\u6ca1\u6709\u6355\u6349\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u4f30\u8ba1\u8bb8\u591a\u81ea\u7531\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5b83\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6216\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u975e\u5e38\u654f\u611f\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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2.2 \u6709\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u67d0\u79cd\u7ea6\u675f\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6e90\u81ea\u4f4d\u7f6ei\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e3a\u5df2\u77e5\u91cf<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4f7f\u7528\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u5230\u8fbe\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u7684\u4eba\u6570\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u5355\u7ea6\u675f\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u516c\u5f0f2.4\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5e38\u6570<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u51fa\u53d1\u70b9\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u53ca\u5b83\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5c06\u5230\u8fbe\u76ee\u7684\u5730j\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u603b\u6570<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u56fa\u5b9a\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u53cc\u91cd\u7ea6\u675f\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8eOD\u77e9\u9635\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u5bf9\uff0c\u5176\u6d41\u52a8\u6570\u91cf\u7531\u4e0b\u5217\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\uff08\u516c\u5f0f2.5\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5e38\u6570\uff08\u516c\u5f0f2.6\uff09\uff0c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u901a\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u8fed\u4ee3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u62df\u5408\u7a0b\u5e8f(Iterative Proportional Fitting Procedure)\u6765\u6821\u51c6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5355\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u53cc\u7ea6\u675f\u6216\u975e\u7ea6\u675f\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u53ef\u7528\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\u548c\u6240\u8ffd\u6c42\u7684\u5206\u6790\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u5982\u679c\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5730\u7406\u533a\u57df\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u91cf\u6765\u8fd1\u4f3c\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u6d41\u91cf\u548c\u8fd0\u8f93\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4eba\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u91c7\u7528\u975e\u7ea6\u675f\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6d41\u51fa\u6216\u6d41\u5165\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u4f30\u8ba1OD\u77e9\u9635Tij\u7684\u5143\u7d20\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4eba\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u4f7f\u7528\u7ea6\u675f\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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2.3 \u5e72\u9884\u673a\u4f1a\u6a21\u578b <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h2>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

Stouffer\u4e8e1940\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5e72\u9884\u673a\u4f1a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u301010\u3011\uff0c\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8ddd\u79bb\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8ddd\u79bb\u548c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6ca1\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u662f\u5e72\u9884\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u6216\u8005\u539f\u70b9\u548c\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u673a\u4f1a\u6570\u91cf\uff0c<\/strong>\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u5728\u8fbe\u6210\u6d41\u52a8\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u51fa\u53d1\u5730\u4e0e\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ece\u539f\u70b9\u4f4d\u7f6ei\u5230\u7b2cj\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6570\u91cf<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u6839\u636e\u884c\u7a0b\u6210\u672c\u6392\u540d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u8fbe\u4e3a\uff08\u516c\u5f0f2.7\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u662f\u6e90\u81ea\u4f4d\u7f6ei\u7684\u884c\u7a0b\u603b\u6570\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9879\u8868\u793a\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u6b21\u884c\u7a0b\u4f1a\u5728\u4f4d\u7f6ej\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5206\u6bcd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u6982\u7387\u603b\u548c\u4e3a1\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u5373\u6309\u884c\u7a0b\u6210\u672c\u6392\u540d\u7684\u4ece\u8d77\u59cb\u4f4d\u7f6ei\u5230\u7b2cj\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u673a\u4f1a\u6570\u91cf\uff08n\u662f\u6240\u8003\u8651\u533a\u57df\u4e2d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u603b\u6570\uff09\u3002\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u6216\u603b\u5230\u8fbe\u4eba\u6570\uff0c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u5047\u5b9a\u4e0e\u4f4d\u7f6ej\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u771f\u5b9e\u673a\u4f1a\u201d\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u53c2\u6570L\u7684\u503c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u63a5\u53d7\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u4f1a\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u7684\u6052\u5b9a\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5728\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8c03\u6574L\u7684\u503c\u83b7\u5f97\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u63a5\u8fd1\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u6d41\u52a8\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5f15\u529b\u548c\u5e72\u9884\u673a\u4f1a\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e8c\u5341\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e0b\u534a\u53f6\u88ab\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u591a\u6b21\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\u4e24\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u73b0\u76f8\u5f53<\/span><\/strong>\u301011\u300112\u300113\u3011\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u5e72\u9884\u673a\u4f1a\u6a21\u578b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u6b8a\u53d8\u4f53\uff0c<\/strong>\u6469\u64e6\u7cfb\u6570<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u88ab\u4e24\u4e2a\u5730\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u673a\u4f1a\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u6240\u53d6\u4ee3\uff0c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u301014\u300115\u3011\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u6df7\u5408\u5f15\u529b\u673a\u4f1a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u517c\u987e\u4e86\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u548c\u673a\u4f1a\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u301016\u300117\u3011\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/h2>\n

\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/strong><\/p>\n

2.4 \u8f90\u5c04\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8f90\u5c04\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u4e2a\u65c5\u884c\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u5305\u62ec\u4e24\u4e2a\u6b65\u9aa4\u301018\u3011\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f1a\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u673a\u4f1a\u5206\u914d\u4e00\u4e2a\u9002\u5e94\u5ea6\uff0c\u7531z\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u5206\u5e03p(z)\u4e2d\u9009\u62e9z\u7684\u503c\uff0c\u5b83\u4ee3\u8868\u65c5\u884c\u8005\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u8d28\u91cf\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u65c5\u884c\u8005\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0e\u51fa\u53d1\u5730\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u8fdb\u884c\u6392\u540d\uff0c\u5e76\u9009\u62e9\u9ad8\u4e8e\u65c5\u884c\u8005\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u5ea6\u9608\u503c\u7684\u6700\u9002\u5408\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u9002\u5e94\u5ea6\u9608\u503c\u662f\u4ece\u9002\u5e94\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03p(z)\u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u6570\u503c\uff08\u89c1\u56fe2\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece\u4f4d\u7f6ei\u5230\u4f4d\u7f6ej\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u65c5\u884c\u8005\u6570\u91cf\u91c7\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5f62\u5f0f\u8868\u8fbe<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff08\u516c\u5f0f2.8\uff09\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8d77\u6e90\u4e8e\u4f4d\u7f6ei\u5230\u8fbe\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u7684\u884c\u7a0b\u6570\u91cf<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u662f\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u7a0b\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8ei\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u4f4d\u7f6ej\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u91c7\u6837\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u539f\u70b9\u548c\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6570\u91cf<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u548c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\uff0c\u8fd8\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4ee5\u4f4d\u7f6ei\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4ee5rij\u4e3a\u534a\u5f84\u7684\u5706\u5708\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6570\u91cfsij\uff08\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u51fa\u53d1\u548c\u76ee\u7684\u5730\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u9700\u8981\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u7a0b\u4ece\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u533a\u57df\u51fa\u53d1\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7b49\u4e8e1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe2. \u8f90\u5c04\u6a21\u578b\u793a\u610f\u56fe\u3002(a)\u4e24\u5bf9\u53bf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u901a\u52e4\u6d41\u91cf\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u72b9\u4ed6\u5dde(UT)\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u963f\u62c9\u5df4\u9a6c\u5dde(AL)\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u539f\u70b9\uff08m\uff0c\u84dd\u8272\uff09\u548c\u76ee\u7684\u5730\uff08n\uff0c\u7eff\u8272\uff09\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6709\u7740\u76f8\u5f53\u7684\u8ddd\u79bbr\uff08\u89c1\u5de6\u4e0b\u8868\uff09\u3002\u53f3\u4e0a\u65b9\u5448\u73b0\u4e86\u5b9e\u9645\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5206\u522b\u7531\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u8f90\u5c04\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u4eba\u6570\u3002\u8f90\u5c04\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a(b) \u4e2a\u4eba\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4f4f\u5728\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5dde\u8428\u62c9\u6258\u52a0\u53bf\uff09\u7533\u8bf7\u6240\u6709\u53bf\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u6536\u96c6\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53bf\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u4e0e\u5e38\u4f4f\u4eba\u53e3\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53bf\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7531\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cfz\u6765\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8be5\u53d8\u91cf\u5177\u6709\u5206\u5e03p(z)\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53bf\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u4ee3\u8868\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53bf\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6700\u4f73\u5de5\u4f5c\u673a\u4f1a\u6bd4\u5bb6\u4e61\u53bf\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u5de5\u4f5c\u673a\u4f1a\u66f4\u597d\uff08\u66f4\u4f4e\uff09\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53bf\u90fd\u6807\u6709\u7eff\u8272\uff08\u7ea2\u8272\uff09\u3002(c)\u4e2a\u4eba\u63a5\u53d7\u6bd4\u4ed6\u5bb6\u4e61\u66f4\u597d\u798f\u5229\u7684\u5e76\u4e14\u8ddd\u79bb\u5bb6\u4e61\u6700\u63a5\u8fd1\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u301018\u3011\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u63cf\u8ff0\u5fc5\u987b\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5404\u79cd\u4ea4\u901a\u5de5\u5177\u548c\u8f6c\u6362\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u591a\u6a21\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u5c42\u6216\u591a\u91cd\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u53d1\u51fa\u7528\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u6790\u7684\u826f\u597d\u6846\u67b6<\/span><\/strong>\u301019\u300120\u3011\u3002\u6d41\u52a8\u548c\u4ea4\u901a\u8fd0\u8f93\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5c42\u6b21\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8fd0\u8f93\u6a21\u5f0f\uff08\u516c\u8def\uff0c\u5730\u94c1\uff0c\u822a\u7a7a\u516c\u53f8\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u5c42\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u6784\u6210\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5207\u6362\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n

\u4e09\u3001\u5e94\u7528\u4e3e\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

 <\/p>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u548c\u4ea4\u901a\u8fd0\u8f93\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u4e4b\u4e00\u5c31\u662f\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u8513\u5ef6\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u867d\u7136\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u95e8\u5b66\u79d1\u6709\u51e0\u767e\u5e74\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\uff0c\u4f46\u76f4\u5230\u6700\u8fd1\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u4e3a\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u6a21\u62df\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f20\u64ad\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f8b\u75c5\u4eba\u5f80\u5f80\u90fd\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u822a\u7a7a\u8fd0\u8f93\u7cfb\u7edf\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4e16\u754c\u673a\u573a\u7f51\u7edc\uff08WAN\uff09\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u9014\u5f84\u301021\u3011\uff08\u89c1\u56fe3\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h1>\n

<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe3\uff1a\u5728(a)\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ece\u9999\u6e2f\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u6700\u77ed\uff08\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\uff09\u7684\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u9014\u5f84\u3002\u5728(b)\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u62df\u5f97\u5230\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u9999\u6e2f\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6f14\u53d8\u3002<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u4ee3\u8868\u548c\u75be\u75c5\u8d77\u6e90\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u3002\u5728(c)\u4e2d\uff0c\u6a21\u62df\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5230\u8fbe\u65f6\u95f4\u548c<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5728(d)\u548c(e)\u4e2d\uff0c\u75282009\u5e74H1N1\u6d41\u611f\u548c2003\u5e74SARS\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u301021\u3011\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u7efc\u8ff0\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4ecb\u7ecd\u548c\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u9886\u57df\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u5efa\u6a21\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u9886\u57df\u90fd\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u5728\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u5c06\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u65b9\u5411\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6d89\u53ca\u4ece\u4f20\u7edf\u8f66\u8f86\u8f6c\u53d8\u6210\u4e3a\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u8f66\u8f86\u3002\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u6c7d\u8f66\u7684\u6269\u6563\u5c06\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u79c1\u4eba\u548c\u516c\u5171\u4ea4\u901a\u7684\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u73af\u5883\u4ea7\u751f\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8f6c\u53d8\u7a76\u7adf\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u751f\uff1f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u4e60\u60ef\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u53d8\u5316\uff1f\u5982\u4f55\u7ba1\u7406\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8f66\u8f86\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u53c8\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4ea4\u901a\u8def\u7ebf\u4ee5\u4f18\u5316\u71c3\u6599\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u51cf\u5c11\u4ea4\u901a\u62e5\u5835\u548c\u6c61\u67d3\uff1f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u91cd\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u6765\u81ea\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u884c\u4e3a\u66f4\u4e3a\u5168\u9762\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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[1]A. Einstein, \u00dcber die von der molekularkinetischen Theorie der W\u00e4rme geforderte Bewegung von in ruhenden Fl\u00fcssigkeiten suspendierten Teilchen (On the movement of small particles suspended in a stationary liquid demanded by the molecular-kinetic theory of heat), Annal. Phys. 17 (1905) 549\u2013560.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h1>\n

[2]D. Brockmann, L. Hufnagel, T. Geisel, The scaling laws of human travel, Nature 439 (7075) (2006) 462\u2013465\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

[3]C. Song, T. Koren, P. Wang, A.-L. Barab\u00e1si, Modelling the scaling properties of human mobility, Nat. Phys. 6 (10) (2010) 818\u2013823.<\/span><\/p>\n

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[5]M. De Domenico, A. Lima, M. Musolesi, Interdependence and predictability of human mobility and social interactions, Pervasive Mob. Comput. 9 (6) (2013) 798\u2013807.<\/span><\/p>\n

[6]G.K. Zipf, The P1 P2\/D hypothesis: On the intercity movement of persons, Amer. Sociol. Rev. 11 (6) (1946) 677\u2013686.<\/span><\/p>\n

[7]J. de Dios Ort\u00fazar, L. Willumsen, Modeling Transport, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, New York, 2011.<\/span><\/p>\n

[8]P. McCullagh, J.A. Nelder, Generalized Linear Models, in: Monograph on Statistics and Applied Probability, Vol. 37, Chapman and Hall, London, UK,1989.<\/span><\/p>\n

[9]X. Li, H. Tian, D. Lai, Z. Zhang, Validation of the gravity model in predicting the global spread of influenza, Int. J. Environ. Res. Publ. Health 8 (2011)3134\u20133143.<\/span><\/p>\n

[10]S.A. Stouffer, Intervening opportunities: A theory relating mobility and distance, Amer. Sociol. Rev. 5 (6) (1940) 845\u2013867.<\/span><\/p>\n

[11]D.K. Witheford, Comparison of Trip Distribution by Opportunity Model and Gravity Model, Pittsburgh Area Transportation Study, 1961.<\/span><\/p>\n

[12]C.E. Pyers, Evaluation of intervening opportunities trip distribution models, Highway Res. Record 114 (114) (1966) 71\u201388.<\/span><\/p>\n

[13]H.C. Lawson, J.A. Dearinger, A comparison of four work trip distribution models, Proc. Amer. Soc. Civil Eng. 93 (1967) 1\u201325.<\/span><\/p>\n

[14]F. Zhao, L.-F. Chow, M.-T. Li, A. Gan, S.D.L., Refinement of FSUTMS trip distribution methodology, in: Technical Memorandum 3, Florida InternationalUniversity, 2001.<\/span><\/p>\n

[15]R. Eash, Development of a doubly constrained intervening opportunities model for trip distribution, Chicago Area Transportation Study (84) (1984).<\/span><\/p>\n

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[17]M.B. Gon\u00e7alves, I. Ulyssea-Neto, The development of a new gravity-opportunity model for trip distribution, Environ. Plan. A 25 (1993) 817\u2013826.<\/span><\/p>\n

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[19]S. Boccaletti, G. Bianconi, R. Criado, C.I. Del Genio, J. G\u00f3mez-Gardenes, M. Romance, I. Sendina-Nadal, Z. Wang, M. Zanin, The structure and dynamics of multilayer networks, Phys. Rep. 544 (2014) 1\u2013122.<\/span><\/p>\n

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[21]D. Brockmann, D. Helbing, The hidden geometry of complex, network-driven contagion phenomena, Science 342 (2013) 1337\u20131342.<\/span><\/p>\n

[22]L.A. Rvachev, I.M. Longini, A mathematical model for the global spread of influenza, Math. Biosci. 75 (1) (1985) 3\u201322.<\/span><\/p>\n

[23]L. Sattenspiel, K. Dietz, A structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions, Math. Biosci. 128 (1995) 71\u201391.<\/span><\/p>\n

[24]V. Colizza, A. Vespignani, Invasion threshold in Heterogeneous Metapopulation Networks, Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 (2007) 148701.<\/span><\/p>\n

[25]D. Balcan, H. Hu, B. Goncalves, P. Bajardi, C. Poletto, J.J. Ramasco, D. Paolotti, N. Perra, M. Tizzoni, V. Colizza, et al., Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A (H1N1): A Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility, BMC Med. 7 (1) (2009) 1.<\/span><\/p>\n

[26]S. Meloni, N. Perra, A. Arenas, S. G\u00f3mez, Y. Moreno, A. Vespignani, Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseases, Sci. Rep. 1 (2011) 62.<\/span><\/p>\n

[27]A. Apolloni, C. Poletto, J.J. Ramasco, P. Jensen, V. Colizza, Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour, Theoret. Biol. Med. Modell. 11 (2014) 3.<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u674e\u6c9b\u6b23<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/s037015731830022x<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aHuman mobility: Models and applications<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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2018\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u590f\u4ee4\u8425\u540d\u5e08\u8bb2\u5ea7<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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Nature\u901a\u8baf\u8fd1\u4e09\u5e74\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u8bba\u6587\u7efc\u8ff0<\/strong><\/a>
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\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org
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\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/section>\n

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\u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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