大家好：

我是来自法国巴黎大学(Pierre and Marie Curie)的粒子物理学家Bertrand Roehner。（点击阅读原文可以去到我的主页）

自从2008年以来，每年我都会到北师大系统科学学院访问几个月。我给大家写信是因为我们最近在做一个项目，我们将天文学和天体物理学中的方法用到了社会系统中。这里，天文或天体物理学的方法是指下面所提到的方法。

在宇宙中有很多不同的物体：恒星、行星、卫星、彗星、中子星、黑洞等等。毋庸置疑，我们没法将恒星和中子星放到一起研究，因为它们是不同的物体。

相反，如果我们利用一种比较的方法来研究恒星就是有意义的因为这将会让我们能够将不同颜色和尺寸的恒星进行更好的区分。大的黄色的恒星与小的蓝色的恒星会不一样。

同样的，人类经历了非常多的历史事件，我们需要将这些事件分门别类。在天文学中，这一任务耗费了人们数个世纪，因此对于社会事件来说，我们也需要花费至少数十年的时间。

在我们最近的一本中文书中，李睿琪博士和我共同合作开始这样一个归类、比较和分析的工作。我们的目的是找到这些跨越年度和国度的历史事件之间的规律性。这一工作可以追溯到1993年的时候，人们找到了一些规律，但是这仅仅是整个故事的开始，我们将持续这一故事。

第一次世界大战

为了让我们的研究更有趣，我们将这种方法用于研究中美关系。

现在这本书 USA-China: cooperation or confrontation? 
An illustration of how to conduct a scientific analysis of historical events 《科学看历史–如何科学地分析历史事件》 已经可以在网上免费获取：

中文版 (尚未完成):

http://www.lpthe.jussieu.fr/~roehner/prch.php

英文版 (基本完成):

http://www.lpthe.jussieu.fr/~roehner/compet.pdf

我非常愿意与你们进行进一步的讨论，你可以给我写email：roehner@lpthe.jussieu.fr

如果你认识对这个课题感兴趣的朋友，请帮忙把这个URL转发给TA。我们对任何形式的反馈都非常高兴。中文请回复给李博士（ricklee3380@gmail.com）。

事实上，我们写这本书的主要目的就是找到与我们志趣相投的人从而进一步完成这个工作（我们也为这个项目提供一定的资助）。李博士很高兴来回答任何和这个项目有关的问题。

感谢大家！

Good afternoon,

A researcher at the University of Paris (Pierre and Marie Curie), I have been educated as a particle physicist.

Every year since 2008 I have been visiting the Department of Systems Science of BNU for a few months. You may wonder for what reason I’m writing to you.

We have developed a project concerning social systems which uses the same scientific approach as astronomy and astrophysics.

By ”same scientific approach” I mean the following.

In the universe there are many different objects: stars, planets, satellites, comets,neutron stars, black holes and so on. Needless to say, it would make no sense to study stars and neutron stars together for these are fairly different objects.

On the contrary, it makes sense to study stars in a comparative way for this will lead to further distinctions between stars of different colors and sizes.The big yellow stars are not the same as small blue stars.

In the same way, there are many kinds of historicaland social events. Before they can be compared in any meaningful way, one needs to put together those which belong to the same category. In astronomy, this task took centuries, so one should expect that for social events it will also require many decades.

9.11事件

In a recent book written in Chinese, Dr. Ruiqi Li and myself have tried to start such a program of categorization, comparison and analysis. The goal is to find regularities which hold across time and across countries. Ever since this work started back in 1993 a number of regularities have emerged but this is only the beginning of the story. It needs to be continued.

In order to make such a study more interesting for our readers we have applied this methodology to the study of US-PRC relations.

The book is completely available on line at the following addresses.

Chinese version (not yet completely finished):

http://www.lpthe.jussieu.fr/~roehner/prch.php

English version (almost finished): http://www.lpthe.jussieu.fr/~roehner/compet.pdf

(if these webpages do not open, please let us know; for the first one must wait a few seconds for the download)

I would be happy to have further discussions at any moment at your best convenience. You can email me at: roehner@lpthe.jussieu.fr.

If you have friends who might be interested don’t hesitate to forward the URLs to them. Needless to say, we would be quite interested in any feedback. Feedback in Chinese should of course be sent to Dr. Li (rickylee3380@gmail.com).

Actually, with this book our main goal is to find a few persons who are sufficientlyconvinced by this approach to continue the work that we have started (some funding is available to start this project). Dr. Li would be happy to answer any question about this project.

With all my best wishes,

Bertrand Roehner

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