社会互动的网络结构动力学模型 | 网络科学论文速递20篇-集智俱乐部

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核心速递



  • 社会互动的网络结构动力学模型;

  • 封锁对城市间流动性的异质性影响;

  • 有色噪声时间序列作为人工进化系统中环境变化的合适模型;

  • 利用流动性数据设计应对英格兰新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行的最佳封锁策略;

  • 基于空腔主方程的传染病模型动力学;

  • 网络元人口流行病的分布式链路删除策略及其在新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病控制中的应用;

  • 你能感染多少种? 简单(朴素)的方法估计繁殖数量;

  • 掩盖一般人口可能会减少新型冠状病毒肺炎的爆发;

  • 类似 COVID-19流行病的过度死亡率模型;

  • 有符号网络中用于社区检测的非回溯算子;

  • 异质性对超图传染模型的影响;

  • 重划选区与计算重划;

  • 欧洲国家新的新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病传播和实施模型的方法学;

  • 科际整合及技术影响;

  • 传染病传播的时空预测模型框架;

  • 新型冠状病毒肺炎流感大流行期间美国空气质量和人口流动的变化;

  • 巴西的 SARS-CoV-2不确定性三脚架: 对大量漏报的基于模型的预测的评估;

  • Axelrod 模型的一种新的解析公式;

  • 使用位置数据揭示新型冠状病毒肺炎流感大流行期间流动性减少的社会经济差距;

  • C19-tranet: SARS-CoV-2全球索引病例传播网络;




社会互动的网络结构动力学模型


原文标题:

Network structured kinetic models of social interactions

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15452
作者:
Martin Burger

Abstract:The aim of this paper is to study the derivation of appropriate meso- and macroscopic models for interactions as appearing in social processes. There are two main characteristics the models take into account, namely a network structure of interactions, which we treat by an appropriate mesoscopic description, and a different role of interacting agents. The latter differs from interactions treated in classical statistical mechanics in the sense that the agents do not have symmetric roles, but there is rather an active and a passive agent. We will demonstrate how a certain form of kinetic equations can be obtained to describe such interactions at a mesoscopic level and moreover obtain macroscopic models from monokinetics solutions of those. The derivation naturally leads to systems of nonlocal reaction-diffusion equations (or in a suitable limit local versions thereof), which can explain spatial phase separation phenomena found to emerge from the microscopic interactions. We will highlight the approach in three examples, namely the evolution and coarsening of dialects in human language, the construction of social norms, and the spread of an epidemic.
摘要:本文的目的是研究适当的社会过程中出现的相互作用的中观和宏观模型的推导。模型考虑了两个主要特征,即相互作用的网络结构,我们用适当的介观描述来处理,以及相互作用体的不同角色。后者不同于经典统计力学理论中的相互作用,在这个意义上,主体没有对称的角色,而是有一个主动的和被动的主体。我们将展示如何在介观水平上获得某种形式的动力学方程来描述这种相互作用,并且进一步从这些动力学解中获得宏观模型。这种推导很自然地导致了非局部反应扩散方程组(或者在一个合适的局部版本中) ,它可以解释从微观相互作用中发现的空间相分离现象。我们将通过三个例子强调这种方法,即人类语言中方言的演变和粗化,社会规范的建立,以及流行病的传播。



封锁对城市间流动性的异质性影响


原文标题:

Heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter-municipality mobility

地址

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15724

作者:

H. P. M. Melo,J. Henriques,R. Carvalho,T. Verma,J. P. da Cruz,N. A. M. Araujo


Abstract:Without a vaccine, the fight against the spreading of the coronavirus has focused on maintaining physical distance. To study the impact of such measures on inter-municipality traffic, we analyze a mobile dataset with the daily flow of people in Portugal in March and April 2020. We find that the reduction in inter-municipality traffic depends strongly on its initial outflow. In municipalities where the mobility is low, the outflow reduced by10−20% and this decrease was independent of the population size. Whereas, for municipalities of high mobility, the reduction was a monotonic increasing function of the population size and it even exceeded 60% for the largest municipalities. As a consequence of such heterogeneities, there were significant structural changes on the most probable paths for the spreading of the virus, which must be considered when modeling the impact of control measures.

摘要:在没有疫苗的情况下,对抗冠状病毒传播的战斗集中在保持物理距离上。为了研究这些措施对城市间交通的影响,我们分析了2020年3月和4月在葡萄牙的每日人流的移动数据集。我们发现,城市间交通的减少很大程度上取决于其最初的流出量。在流动性低的城市,流出量减少了10−20% 这种减少与种群数量无关。然而,对于流动性高的城市来说,这种减少是人口规模的单调增长函数,甚至超过了60% 最大的市政当局。由于这种不均匀性,病毒传播的最可能途径发生了重大的结构变化,在为控制措施的影响建模时必须考虑到这一点。



有色噪声时间序列作为人工

进化系统中环境变化的合适模型


原文标题:

Coloured noise time series as appropriate models for environmental variation in artificial evolutionary systems

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.16204
作者:
Matt Grove,James M. Borg,Fiona Polack

Abstract:Ecological, environmental and geophysical time series consistently exhibit the characteristics of coloured (1/f^b{eta}) noise. Here we briefly survey the literature on coloured noise, population persistence and related evolutionary dynamics, before introducing coloured noise as an appropriate model for environmental variation in artificial evolutionary systems. To illustrate and explore the effects of different noise colours, a simple evolutionary model that examines the trade-off between specialism and generalism in fluctuating environments is applied. The results of the model clearly demonstrate a need for greater generalism as environmental variability becomes `whiter', whilst specialisation is favoured as environmental variability becomes `redder'. Pink noise, sitting midway between white and red noise, is shown to be the point at which the pressures for generalism and specialism balance, providing some insight in to why `pinker' noise is increasingly being seen as an appropriate model of typical environmental variability. We go on to discuss how the results presented here feed in to a wider discussion on evolutionary responses to fluctuating environments. Ultimately we argue that Artificial Life as a field should embrace the use of coloured noise to produce models of environmental variability.
摘要:生态、环境和地球物理时间序列始终呈现有色噪声特征。在介绍有色噪声作为人工进化系统中环境变化的合适模型之前,我们简要地回顾了有色噪声、种群持续性和相关的进化动力学的文献。为了说明和探索不同的噪音颜色的影响,一个简单的进化模型,审查之间的权衡专业和一般在波动的环境中使用。该模型的结果清楚地表明,需要更大的一般性,因为环境变异变得“白色” ,而专业化是有利的,因为环境变异变得“红色”。粉红噪声,介于白噪声和红噪声之间,被证明是一般化和专业化的压力平衡点,提供了一些洞察力,为什么粉红噪声越来越被视为典型环境变化的适当模型。我们继续讨论这里展示的结果如何为更广泛的关于对波动环境的进化反应的讨论提供支持。最终,我们认为,人工生命作为一个领域,应该包括有色噪音的使用,以产生环境可变性的模型。


利用流动性数据设计应对

英格兰新型冠状病毒肺炎

大流行的最佳封锁策略


原文标题:

Using mobility data in the design of optimal lockdown strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in England

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.16059
作者:
Ritabrata Dutta,Susana Gomes,Dante Kalise,Lorenzo Pacchiardi

Abstract:A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread in England is presented. The model integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility. The dynamical model adjustment is performed via Approximate Bayesian Computation. Optimal lockdown and exit strategies are determined based on nonlinear model predictive control, constrained to public-health and socio-economic factors. Through an extensive computational validation of the methodology, it is shown that it is possible to compute robust exit strategies with realistic reduced mobility values to inform public policy making.
摘要:提出了一个新型冠状病毒肺炎在英格兰传播的数学模型。该模型集成了年龄结构的易感-暴露-感染-移除动态与真实的移动电话数据的人口流动。动态模型调整采用近似贝叶斯计算。最佳的封锁和退出策略是基于非线性模型预估计控制,受到公共卫生和社会经济因素的约束。通过对该方法的广泛计算验证,表明有可能计算出具有实际降低的流动性值的稳健退出策略,从而为公共决策提供依据。


基于空腔主方程的

传染病模型动力学


原文标题:

Dynamics of epidemic models from cavity master equations

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15881
作者:
Ernesto Ortega,David Machado,Alejandro Lage-Castellanos

Abstract:We apply the cavity master equation (CME) approach to epidemics models. We explore mostly the susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model, which can be readily treated with the CME as a two-state. We show that this approach is more accurate than individual based and pair based mean field methods, and a previously published dynamic message passing scheme. We explore average case predictions and extend the cavity master equation to SIR and SIRS models.
摘要:将空腔主方程(CME)方法应用于流行病模型。我们主要探讨易感-感染-易感(SIS)模型,它可以很容易地处理 CME 作为一个两态。实验结果表明,该方法比基于个体的和基于对的均值域方法以及先前发表的动态消息传递方案具有更高的精度。我们探讨了平均病例预测,并将腔主方程推广到 SIR 和 SIRS 模型。


网络元人口流行病的分布式

链路删除策略及其在新型

冠状病毒肺炎流行病控制中的应用


原文标题:

Distributed Link Removal Strategy for Networked Meta-Population Epidemics and its Application to the Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic

地址:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.16221
作者:
Fangzhou Liu,Yuhong Chen,Tong Liu,Zibo Zhou,Dong Xue,Martin Buss

Abstract:In this paper, we investigate the distributed link removal strategy for networked meta-population epidemics. In particular, a deterministic networked susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is considered to describe the epidemic evolving process. In order to curb the spread of epidemics, we present the spectrum-based optimization problem involving the Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue of the matrix constructed by the network topology and transition rates. A modified distributed link removal strategy is developed such that it can be applied to the SIR model with heterogeneous transition rates on weighted digraphs. The proposed approach is implemented to control the COVID-19 pandemic by using the reported infected and recovered data in each state of Germany. The numerical experiment shows that the infected percentage can be significantly reduced by using the distributed link removal strategy.
摘要:本文研究了网络化元群体流行病的分布式链路删除策略。特别地,我们考虑了一个确定性的网络化易感-感染-康复(SIR)模型来描述传染病的演化过程。为了抑制流行病的传播,我们提出了基于频谱的最佳化问题,包括由网络拓扑和转移率构造的矩阵的 Perron-Frobenius 特征值。提出了一种改进的分布式链路删除策略,该策略可应用于带权有向图上具有异构转移率的 SIR 模型。提议的方法是通过使用德国每个州报告的感染和恢复数据来实施控制新型冠状病毒肺炎流感大流行。数值实验表明,采用分布式链路删除策略可以显著降低感染率。


你能感染多少种?

简单(朴素)的方法估计繁殖数量


原文标题:

How many can you infect? Simple (and naive) methods of estimating the reproduction number

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15706
作者:
H. Susanto,V. R. Tjahjono,A. Hasan,M. F. Kasim,N. Nuraini,E. R. M. Putri,R. Kusdiantara,H. Kurniawan

Abstract:This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There are generally two types of such a number, i.e., basic and effective (or instantaneous). While basic reproduction number is the average expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible, effective reproduction number is the number of cases generated in the current state of a population. In this paper, we exploit the deterministic susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model to estimate them through three different numerical approximations. We apply the methods to the pandemic COVID-19 in Italy to provide insights into the spread of the disease in the country. We see that the effect of the national lockdown in slowing down the disease exponential growth appeared about two weeks after the implementation date. We also discuss available improvements to the simple (and naive) methods that have been made by researchers in the field. Authors of this paper are members of the SimcovID (Simulasi dan Pemodelan COVID-19 Indonesia) collaboration.
摘要:这是一份关于估计在流行病爆发期间可能被一个传染人感染的人数的教学论文,称为繁殖数。了解这个数字对于制定应对政策至关重要。这种数字通常有两种类型,即基本的和有效的(或瞬时的)。基本传染数是所有个体都易感的人群中一个病例直接产生的平均预期病例数,有效生殖数是在当前人群状态下产生的病例数。本文利用确定性易感染-感染-去除(SIR)模型,通过三种不同的数值逼近方法对其进行估计。我们将这些方法应用于意大利的大流行性流感新型冠状病毒肺炎,以深入了解该疾病在该国的传播情况。我们看到,国家防范指数增长在延缓疾病传播方面的效果在实施日期后大约两周出现。我们还讨论了对该领域研究人员提出的简单(和朴素)方法的可用改进。本文作者是印度尼西亚新型冠状病毒肺炎协会的成员。


掩盖一般人口可能会减少

新型冠状病毒肺炎的爆发


原文标题:

Masking the general population might attenuate COVID-19 outbreaks

地址:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15626
作者:
Bjorn Johansson

Abstract:The effect of masking the general population on a COVID-19 epidemic is estimated by computer simulation using two separate state-of-the-art web-based softwares, one of them calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions addressed are these: 1. Can mask use by the general population limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a country? 2. What types of masks exist, and how elaborate must a mask be to be effective against COVID-19? 3. Does the mask have to be applied early in an epidemic? 4. A brief general discussion of masks and some possible future research questions regarding masks and SARS-CoV-2. Results are as follows: (1) The results indicate that any type of mask, even simple home-made ones, may be effective. Masks use seems to have an effect in lowering new patients even the protective effect of each mask (here dubbed "one-mask protection") is low. Strict adherence to mask use does not appear to be critical. However, increasing the one-mask protection to > 50% was found to be advantageous. Masks seemed able to reduce overflow of capacity, e.g. of intensive care. As the default parameters of the software included another intervention, it seems possible to combine mask and other interventions. (2) Masks do seem to reduce the number of new cases even if introduced at a late stage in an epidemic. However, early implementation helps reduce the cumulative and total number of cases. (3) The simulations suggest that it might be possible to eliminate a COVID-19 outbreak by widespread mask use during a limited period. The results from these simulations are encouraging, but do not necessarily represent the real-life situation, so it is suggested that clinical trials of masks are now carried out while continuously monitoring effects and side-effects.
摘要:通过使用两个独立的最先进的基于网络的软件,其中一个软件是为 SARS-CoV-2病毒校准的,由计算机模拟卫生组织估计了掩盖一般人群对于一场非典型肺炎流行病的影响。这些问题是: 1。一般人群使用口罩能限制SARS-CoV-2在一个国家的传播吗?2。存在哪些类型的面具,一个面具需要多么精致才能有效地对抗新型冠状病毒肺炎?3。面具是否必须在流行病的早期使用?4。一个简短的一般性讨论的口罩和一些可能的未来研究问题有关口罩和 SARS-CoV-2。结果如下: (1)结果表明,任何类型的口罩,即使是简单的自制口罩,都可能是有效的。口罩的使用似乎有降低新病人数量的作用,即使每个口罩的保护作用(这里称为“单一口罩保护”)都很低。严格遵守面膜的使用似乎并不重要。然而,增加一个掩膜保护到大于50% 被发现是有利的。口罩似乎能够减少容量的溢出,例如重症监护。由于该软件的默认参数包括另一项干预措施,因此似乎可以将面具和其他干预措施结合起来。(2)即使在流行病的后期阶段引入口罩,口罩似乎确实可以减少新病例的数量。然而,早期实施有助于减少累积和总数的案件。(3)模拟结果显示,在有限的时间内广泛使用口罩,可能可以消除新型冠状病毒肺炎爆发。这些模拟的结果令人鼓舞,但不一定代表真实的情况,因此建议现在进行口罩的临床试验,同时不断监测影响和副作用。


类似 COVID-19流行病

的过度死亡率模型


原文标题:

Modelling Excess Mortality in Covid-19-like Epidemics

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15583
作者:
Zdzislaw Burda

Abstract:We discuss a stochastic model to assess cumulative excess deaths during Covid-19-like epidemics for various non-pharmaceutic interventions. The model simulates three interrelated stochastic processes: epidemic spreading, availability of respiratory ventilators and changes in death statistics. Epidemic may spread either locally or globally. The local mode simulates virus transmission through contacts in the vicinity of the place of residence while the global mode simulates virus transmission through social mixing in public places, sport arenas, airports, etc, where many people meet, who live in remote geographic locations. Epidemic is modelled as a discrete time stochastic process on random geometric networks. In the simulations we assume that the basic reproduction number isR0=2.5 and the infectious period lasts ca. ten days. We also assume that the virus leads to severe acute respiratory syndrome in about one percent of cases, which in turn almost surely lead to respiratory default and death, unless the patient receives an appropriate medical treatment supported by respiratory ventilation. For other parameters, like mortality rate or the number of respiratory ventilators per million of inhabitants, we take values typical for developed countries. We simulate populations of 105−106 people. We compare different strategies: do-nothing, social distancing, reduction of social mixing and lockdown, assuming that there is no vaccine and no efficient medicine. The results of the simulations show that strategies that slow down the spread of epidemic too much are inefficient in reducing the cumulative excess of deaths. A hybrid strategy in which lockdown is in place for some time and is then completely released is inefficient as well.
摘要:我们讨论了一个随机模型来评估各种非药物干预措施的类 ovid-19流行病累积超额死亡。该模型模拟了三个相互关联的随机过程: 流行病传播、呼吸机的有效性和死亡统计数据的变化。流行病可能在本地或全球传播。本地模式模拟病毒通过居住地附近的接触传播,而全球模式模拟病毒通过在公共场所、运动场所、机场等地的社会混合传播,在这些地方有许多人相遇,他们居住在偏远的地理位置。将传染病模型化为随机几何网络上的离散时间随机过程。在模拟中我们假设基本传染数R0=2.5 感染期持续大约。十天。我们还假设,在大约百分之一的病例中,病毒会导致严重急性唿吸综合症,这几乎肯定会导致呼吸系统缺陷和死亡,除非病人接受了呼吸通气支持的适当治疗。对于其他参数,如死亡率或每百万居民呼吸器的数量,我们采用发达国家的典型值。我们模拟了105−106 人。我们比较了不同的策略: 什么都不做,社会疏远,减少社会混合和封锁,假设没有疫苗和有效的药物。模拟结果表明,过度减缓流行病蔓延的策略在减少累积过多死亡方面效率不高。一个混合策略,其中锁定是在适当的地方一段时间,然后完全释放是低效的。


有符号网络中

用于社区检测的非回溯算子


原文标题:

Non-backtracking Operator for Community Detection in Signed Networks

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15471
作者:
Zhaoyue Zhong,Xiangrong Wang,Cunquan Qu,Guanghui Wang

Abstract:Community detection or clustering is crucial for understanding the structure of complex systems. In some networks, nodes are allowed to be linked by either 'positive' or 'negative' edges. Such networks are called signed networks. Discovering communities in signed networks is more challenging. Inspired by the structural balance theory, in this article, we innovatively propose a non-backtracking operator for signed networks. Besides, we theoretically derive a detectability threshold and prove the feasibility of the non-backtracking operator in community detection. Simulation results demonstrate that the non-backtracking matrix-based approach significantly outperforms the adjacency matrix-based algorithm, and shows great potential to detect communities with or without overlap.
摘要:社区检测或聚类对于理解复杂系统的结构至关重要。在一些网络中,节点可以通过“正”或“负”边连接。这种网络称为有符号网络。在签名网络中发现社区更具挑战性。受结构平衡理论的启发,本文创新性地提出了一种有符号网络的无回溯算子。此外,我们从理论上推导了一个可探测性阈值,并证明了非回溯算子在社区检测中的可行性。仿真结果表明,基于非回溯矩阵的方法明显优于基于邻接矩阵的方法,在检测有或没有重叠的社区方面显示了巨大的潜力。



异质性对超图传染模型的影响


原文标题:

The effect of heterogeneity on hypergraph contagion models

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15453
作者:
Nicholas Landry,Juan G. Restrepo

Abstract:The dynamics of network social contagion processes such as opinion formation and epidemic spreading is often mediated by interactions between multiple nodes. Previous results have shown that these higher-order interactions can profoundly modify the dynamics of contagion processes, resulting in bistability, hysteresis, and explosive transitions. In this paper, we present and analyze a degree-based mean-field description of the dynamics of the SIS model on hypergraphs, i.e., networks with higher-order interactions. We derive a hyperdegree-based mean-field equation to describe the contagion dynamics, and illustrate its applicability with the example of a hypergraph where contagion is mediated by both links (pairwise interactions) and triangles (three-way interactions). We consider two different mechanisms of higher-order contagion and healing, and the cases where links and triangles connect preferentially to the same nodes, or are chosen independently of each other. We find that, when links and triangles are chosen independently, heterogeneity in the link degree distribution can suppress explosive transitions. In addition, explosive transitions are more likely to occur when node and triangle connections are positively correlated when compared to the case when they are chosen independently of each other. We verify these results with microscopic simulations of the contagion process and with analytic predictions derived from the mean-field model. Our results show that the structure of higher-order interactions can have important effects on contagion processes on hypergraphs.
摘要:网络社会传染的动态过程,如舆论形成和流行病传播,往往是由多个节点之间的相互作用介导的。以往的研究结果表明,这些高阶相互作用能够深刻地改变传染过程的动力学,从而导致双稳态、滞后和爆炸跃迁。本文提出并分析了超图 SIS 模型的动力学性质的一种基于度的平均场描述,即具有高阶相互作用的网络。我们推导了一个基于超度的平均场方程来描述传染动力学,并以一个超图为例说明了它的适用性。我们考虑了两种不同的高阶传染和愈合机制,以及链接和三角形优先连接到同一个节点,或者彼此独立选择的情况。我们发现,当单独选择链接和三角形时,链接度分布的异质性可以抑制爆发性跃迁。此外,与单独选择节点和三角形连接相比,节点和三角形连接相互正相关时更容易发生爆炸性转变。我们用传染过程的微观模拟和由平均场模型导出的分析预测来验证这些结果。研究结果表明,高阶相互作用的结构对超图的传染过程具有重要影响。


重划选区与计算重划


原文标题:

Gerrymandering and computational redistricting

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/1711.04640
作者:
Olivia Guest,Frank J. Kanayet,Bradley C. Love

Abstract:Partisan gerrymandering poses a threat to democracy. Moreover, the complexity of the districting task may exceed human capacities. One potential solution is using computational models to automate the districting process by optimizing objective and open criteria, such as how spatially compact districts are. We formulated one such model that minimized pairwise distance between voters within a district. Using US Census Bureau data, we confirmed our prediction that the difference in compactness between the computed and actual districts would be greatest for states that are large and therefore difficult for humans to properly district given their limited capacities. The computed solutions highlighted differences in how humans and machines solve this task with machine solutions more fully optimized and displaying emergent properties not evident in human solutions. These results suggest a division of labour in which humans debate and formulate districting criteria whereas machines optimize the criteria to draw the district boundaries. We discuss how criteria can be expanded beyond notions of compactness to include other factors, such as respecting municipal boundaries, historic communities, relevant legislation, etc.
摘要:党派划分选区的做法对民主构成威胁。此外,区域划分任务的复杂性可能超出了人的能力。一个可能的解决方案是使用计算模型,通过优化客观和开放的标准,例如空间紧凑的区域,来自动化分区过程。我们建立了一个这样的模型,最小化了一个地区内选民之间的成对距离。使用美国人口普查局的数据,我们证实了我们的预测,即计算和实际地区之间的紧凑程度差异最大的是那些面积很大的州,因此,鉴于其有限的容量,人们很难适当地选择地区。计算机解决方案突出了人类和机器如何解决这个任务的差异,机器解决方案得到了更充分的优化,并显示了在人类解决方案中不明显的突发性。这些结果表明了一种劳动分工,在这种分工中,人们争论并制定选区划分标准,而机器优化标准以绘制地区边界。我们讨论如何将标准扩展到紧凑性概念之外,以包括其他因素,如尊重市政边界、历史社区、相关立法等。


欧洲国家新的新型冠状病毒肺炎

流行病传播和实施模型的方法学


原文标题:

Methodology for Modelling the new COVID-19 Pandemic Spread and Implementation to European Countries

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15385
作者:
S. Maltezos

Abstract:After the breakout of the disease caused by the new virus COVID-19, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other parameters became possible for the European countries and has been performed in this work. Based on a proposed parametrization model appropriate for implementation to an epidemic in a large population, we focused on the disease spread and we studied the obtained curves, as well as, we investigated probable correlations between the country's characteristics and the parameters of the parametrization. We have also developed a methodology for coupling our model to the SIR-based models determining the basic and the effective reproductive number referring to the parameter space. The obtained results and conclusions could be useful in the case of a recurrence of this repulsive disease in the future.
摘要:在新病毒新型冠状病毒肺炎引起的疾病爆发之后,世界上大多数国家已经进入了缓解阶段。在这一阶段,欧洲国家有可能对每日报告的病例和其他参数进行更准确的数据分析,并在这项工作中进行了分析。基于一个适用于大规模人群中流行病的参数化模型,我们重点研究了疾病的传播,并研究了所得到的曲线,以及国家特征和参数之间的可能相关性。我们还发展了一种方法,将我们的模型耦合到基于 sir 的模型中,确定参数空间的基本和有效再生数。所得到的结果和结论对于这种令人厌恶的疾病在未来的复发可能是有用的。



科际整合及技术影响


原文标题:

Interdisciplinary research and technological impact

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15383
作者:
Qing Ke

Abstract:Interdisciplinary research has been considered as a solution to today's complex societal challenges. While its relationship with scientific impact has been extensively studied, the technological impact of interdisciplinary research remains unexplored. Here, we examine how interdisciplinarity is associated with technological impact at the paper level. We measure the degree of interdisciplinarity of a paper using three popular indicators, namely variety, balance, and disparity, and track how it gets cited by patented technologies over time. Drawing on a large sample of biomedical papers published in 18 years, we find that papers that cites more fields (variety) and whose distributions over those cited fields are more even (balance) are more likely to receive patent citations, but both effects can be offset if papers draw upon more distant fields (disparity). Those associations are consistent across different citation-window lengths. Additional analysis that focuses on the subset of papers with at least one patent citation reveals that the intensity of their technological impact, as measured as the number of patent citations, increases with balance and disparity. Our work may have policy implications for interdisciplinary research and scientific and technology impact.
摘要:科际整合一直被认为是解决当今复杂的社会挑战的一种方法。虽然它与科学影响的关系已经被广泛研究,但是科际整合的技术影响仍然没有被探索。在这里,我们将从纸张层面探讨科际整合与技术影响之间的关系。我们使用3个流行的指标,即多样性、平衡性和差异性来衡量一篇论文的科际整合程度,并跟踪随着时间的推移它是如何被专利技术引用的。基于18年间发表的大量生物医学论文样本,我们发现引用更多领域(多样性)的论文以及其在这些被引用领域的分布更均匀(平衡)的论文更有可能获得专利引用,但是如果论文引用更远的领域(不平衡) ,这两种影响都可以被抵消。这些关联在不同的引用窗口长度上是一致的。关注至少有一个专利引用的论文子集的附加分析表明,它们的技术影响力的强度---- 以专利引用的数量衡量---- 随着平衡和差异的增加而增加。我们的工作可能会对科际整合和科学技术的影响产生政策影响。


传染病传播的时空预测模型框架


原文标题:

Spatio-temporal predictive modeling framework for infectious disease spread

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15336
作者:
Sashikumaar Ganesan,Deepak Subramani

Abstract:A novel predictive modeling framework for the spread of infectious diseases using high dimensional partial differential equations is developed and implemented. A scalar function representing the infected population is defined on a high-dimensional space and its evolution over all directions is described by a population balance equation (PBE). New infections are introduced among the susceptible population from non-quarantined infected population based on their interaction, adherence to distancing norms, hygiene levels and any other societal interventions. Moreover, recovery, death, immunity and all aforementioned parameters are modeled on the high-dimensional space. To epitomize the capabilities and features of the above framework, prognostic estimates of Covid-19 spread using a six-dimensional (time, 2D space, infection severity, duration of infection, and population age) PBE is presented. Further, scenario analysis for different policy interventions and population behavior is presented, throwing more insights into the spatio-temporal spread of infections across disease age, intensity and age of population. These insights could be used for science-informed policy planning.
摘要:提出并实现了一种基于高维偏微分方程的传染病扩散预测模型框架。在高维空间中定义了一个表示被感染种群的标量函数,并用种群平衡方程(PBE)描述其在各个方向上的演化过程。根据相互作用、遵守距离规范、卫生水平和任何其他社会干预措施,在易受感染人口与未隔离的受感染人口之间引入新的感染。此外,恢复,死亡,免疫和上述所有参数建模的高维空间。概括上述框架的能力和特点,使用一个六维(时间,二维空间,感染严重程度,感染持续时间和人口年龄) PBE 的预后估计新型冠状病毒肺炎传播。此外,情景分析的不同政策干预和人口行为提出,投入更多的时空传播感染的疾病年龄,强度和年龄的人口。这些见解可用于科学知情的政策规划。


新型冠状病毒肺炎流感大流行期间

美国空气质量和人口流动的变化


原文标题:

Changes in air quality and human mobility in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15279
作者:
Cristina L. Archer,Guido Cervone,Maryam Golbazi,Nicolas Al Fahel,Carolynne Hultquist

Abstract:The first goal of this study is to quantify the magnitude and spatial variability of air quality changes in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on two federally regulated pollutants, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Observed concentrations at all available ground monitoring sites (240 and 480 for NO2 and PM2.5, respectively) were compared between April 2020 and April of the prior five years, 2015-2019, as the baseline. Large statistically significant decreases in NO2 concentrations were found at more than 65% of the monitoring sites, with an average drop of 2 ppb when compared to the mean of the previous five years. The same patterns are confirmed by satellite-derived NO2 column totals from NASA OMI. PM2.5 concentrations from the ground monitoring sites, however, were more likely to be higher. The second goal of this study is to explain the different responses of the two pollutants during the COVID-19 pandemic. The hypothesis put forward is that the shelter-in-place measures affected peoples' driving patterns most dramatically, thus passenger vehicle NO2 emissions were reduced. Commercial vehicles and electricity demand for all purposes remained relatively unchanged, thus PM2.5 concentrations did not drop significantly. To establish a correlation between the observed NO2 changes and the extent to which people were sheltering in place, we use a mobility index, which was produced and made public by Descartes Labs. This mobility index aggregates cell phone usage at the county level to capture changes in human movement over time. We found a strong correlation between the observed decreases in NO2 concentrations and decreases in human mobility. By contrast, no discernible pattern was detected between mobility and PM2.5 concentrations changes, suggesting that decreases in personal-vehicle traffic alone may not be effective at reducing PM2.5 pollution.
摘要:这项研究的第一个目标是量化新型冠状病毒肺炎流感大流行期间美国空气质量变化的规模和空间变异性。我们重点研究了两种联邦政府规定的污染物: 二氧化氮(NO2)和细颗粒物(PM2.5)。将2020年4月至2015-2019年前五年的4月期间在所有可用地面监测点(NO2和 PM2.5分别为240和480)的观测浓度作为基准。在65% 以上的监测点发现 NO2浓度有显著的统计显著下降,与前五年的平均值相比,平均下降了2 ppb。美国宇航局近地观测卫星提供的 NO2列总数也证实了同样的模式。然而,来自地面监测点的 PM2.5浓度更可能更高。这项研究的第二个目标是解释在新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行期间这两种污染物的不同反应。提出的假设是,就地避难措施对人们的驾驶模式影响最大,从而减少了乘用车二氧化氮的排放。各种用途的商用车辆和电力需求保持相对不变,因此 PM2.5浓度没有显著下降。为了建立观察到的 NO2变化和人们在避难所的程度之间的相关性,我们使用了笛卡尔实验室制作并公布的流动性指数。这一流动性指数汇总了县一级的手机使用情况,以捕捉随着时间的推移人类活动的变化。我们发现观察到的 NO2浓度下降与人类活动能力下降之间有很强的相关性。相比之下,在流动性和 PM2.5浓度变化之间没有发现明显的模式,这表明仅仅减少私人车辆交通可能无法有效地减少 PM2.5污染。


巴西的 SARS-CoV-2

不确定性三脚架: 对大量

漏报的基于模型的预测的评估


原文标题:

The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) Uncertainty Tripod in Brazil: Assessments on model-based predictions with large under-reporting

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15268
作者:
Saulo B. Bastos,Marcelo M. Morato,Daniel O. Cajueiro anda Julio E Normey-Rico

Abstract:The COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2 virus) is the defying global health crisis of our time. The absence of mass testing and the relevant presence of asymptomatic individuals causes the available data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil to be largely under-reported regarding the number of infected individuals and deaths. We propose an adapted Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model which explicitly incorporates the under-reporting and the response of the population to public policies (such as confinement measures, widespread use of masks, etc) to cast short-term and long-term predictions. Large amounts of uncertainty could provide misleading models and predictions. In this paper, we discuss the role of uncertainty in these prediction, which is illustrated regarding three key aspects. First, assuming that the number of infected individuals is under-reported, we demonstrate an anticipation regarding the peak of infection. Furthermore, while a model with a single class of infected individuals yields forecasts with increased peaks, a model that considers both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals suggests a decrease of the peak of symptomatic. Second, considering that the actual amount of deaths is larger than what is being register, then demonstrate the increase of the mortality rates. Third, when consider generally under-reported data, we demonstrate how the transmission and recovery rate model parameters change qualitatively and quantitatively. We also investigate the effect of the "COVID-19 under-reporting tripod", i.e. the under-reporting in terms of infected individuals, of deaths and the true mortality rate. If two of these factors are known, the remainder can be inferred, as long as proportions are kept constant. The proposed approach allows one to determine the margins of uncertainty by assessments on the observed and true mortality rates.
摘要:新型冠状病毒肺炎病毒大流行(SARS-CoV-2病毒)是我们这个时代的全球健康危机。由于缺乏大规模检测以及无症状个体的相关存在,巴西新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行的现有数据在感染人数和死亡人数方面大多被低报。我们提出一个经过调整的易感染-感染-康复(SIR)模型,该模型明确纳入了漏报和人口对公共政策(例如限制措施、广泛使用口罩等)的反应,以进行短期和长期预测。大量的不确定性可能会提供误导性的模型和预测。在本文中,我们讨论了不确定性在这些预测中的作用,并从三个关键方面加以说明。首先,假设感染人数被低报,我们表现出对感染高峰期的预期。此外,虽然只有一类感染者的模型产生峰值增加的预测,但是同时考虑有症状和无症状感染者的模型表明症状峰值减少。其次,考虑到实际死亡人数大于登记的人数,然后证明死亡率的增加。第三,当考虑一般的漏报数据时,我们演示了传输和恢复率模型参数如何定性和定量地变化。我们还调查了“新型冠状病毒肺炎健康报告不足三脚架”的影响,即在感染个体、死亡和真实死亡率方面的报告不足。如果这些因素中有两个是已知的,只要比例保持不变,就可以推断出其余部分。拟议的办法使人们能够通过评估观察到的和真实的死亡率来确定不确定的程度。


Axelrod 模型的一种新的解析公式


原文标题:

A novel analytical formulation of the Axelrod model

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15241
作者:
Lucía Pedraza,Sebastián Pinto,Juan Pablo Pinasco,Pablo Balenzuela

Abstract:The Axelrod model of cultural dissemination has been widely studied in the field of statistical mechanics. The traditional version of this agent-based model is to assign a cultural vector ofF components to each agent, where each component can take one of Q cultural trait. In this work, we introduce a novel set of mean field master equations to describe the model for F=2 and F=3 in complete graphs where all indirect interactions are explicitly calculated. We find that the transition between different macroscopic states is driven by initial conditions (set by parameter Q) and the size of the system N, who measures the balance between linear and cubic terms in master equations. We also find that this analytical approach fully agrees with simulations where the system does not break up during the dynamics and a scaling relation related to missing links reestablishes the agreement when this happens.
摘要:文化传播的阿克塞尔罗德模式在统计力学领域得到了广泛的研究。这个个体为本模型的传统版本是指定一个文化载体F 每个组件可以从每个代理中Q 在这项工作中,我们引入一组平均场主方程来描述模型F=2 及F=3 (在完全图中,所有的间接相互作用都被明确计算出来。我们发现不同宏观状态之间的转变是由初始条件(参数设置)驱动的Q)及系统的规模N,他在主方程中测量了线性项和立方项之间的平衡。我们还发现,这种分析方法完全符合模拟的情况,即系统在动态过程中不会崩溃,与缺失环节有关的标度关系在发生这种情况时重新建立了一致性。



使用位置数据揭示

新型冠状病毒肺炎流感大流行

期间流动性减少的社会经济差距


文标题:

Uncovering socioeconomic gaps in mobility reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic using location data

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15195
作者:
Samuel P. Fraiberger,Pablo Astudillo,Lorenzo Candeago,Alex Chunet,Nicholas K. W. Jones,Maham Faisal Khan,Bruno Lepri,Nancy Lozano Gracia,Lorenzo Lucchini,Emanuele Massaro,Aleister Montfort

Abstract:Using smartphone location data from Colombia, Mexico, and Indonesia, we investigate how non-pharmaceutical policy interventions intended to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic impact human mobility. In all three countries, we find that following the implementation of mobility restriction measures, human movement decreased substantially. Importantly, we also uncover large and persistent differences in mobility reduction between wealth groups: on average, users in the top decile of wealth reduced their mobility up to twice as much as users in the bottom decile. For decision-makers seeking to efficiently allocate resources to response efforts, these findings highlight that smartphone location data can be leveraged to tailor policies to the needs of specific socioeconomic groups, especially the most vulnerable.
摘要:通过使用来自哥伦比亚、墨西哥和印度尼西亚的智能手机定位数据,我们调查了旨在减缓新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病蔓延的非药物政策干预措施对人类流动性的影响。在这三个国家中,我们发现随着流动限制措施的实施,人员流动显著减少。重要的是,我们还发现了不同财富群体之间在流动性减少方面的巨大而持久的差异: 平均而言,财富顶层10分位数的用户流动性减少的幅度是底层10分位数用户的两倍。对于寻求有效分配资源应对工作的决策者来说,这些调查结果突出表明,可以利用智能手机的位置数据来调整政策,以满足特定社会经济群体,特别是最弱势群体的需求。



C19-tranet: 

SARS-CoV-2全球索引病例传播网络


原文标题:

C19-TraNet: an empirical, global index-case transmission network of SARS-CoV-2

地址:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15162
作者:
Vikram Singh,Vikram Singh

Abstract:Originating in Wuhan, the novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has astonished health-care systems across globe due to its rapid and simultaneous spread to the neighboring and distantly located countries. To gain the systems level understanding of the role of global transmission routes in the COVID-19 spread, in this study, we have developed the first, empirical, global, index-case transmission network of SARS-CoV-2 termed as C19-TraNet. We manually curated the travel history of country wise index-cases using government press releases, their official social media handles and online news reports to construct this C19-TraNet that is a spatio-temporal, sparse, growing network comprising of 187 nodes and 199 edges and follows a power-law degree distribution. To model the growing C19-TraNet, a novel stochastic scale free (SSF) algorithm is proposed that accounts for stochastic addition of both nodes as well as edges at each time step. A peculiar connectivity pattern in C19-TraNet is observed, characterized by a fourth degree polynomial growth curve, that significantly diverges from the average random connectivity pattern obtained from an ensemble of its 1,000 SSF realizations. Partitioning the C19-TraNet, using edge betweenness, it is found that most of the large communities are comprised of a heterogeneous mixture of countries belonging to different world regions suggesting that there are no spatial constraints on the spread of disease. This work characterizes the superspreaders that have very quickly transported the virus, through multiple transmission routes, to long range geographical locations alongwith their local neighborhoods.
摘要:这种名为 SARS-CoV-2的新型冠状病毒起源于武汉,由于其迅速并同时传播到邻国和距离较远的国家,震惊了全球的医疗保健系统。为了在系统水平上理解全球传播路径在新型冠状病毒肺炎传播中的作用,在这项研究中,我们开发了第一个,经验的,全球的,指数情况下的 SARS-CoV-2传播网络称为 C19-TraNet。我们使用政府新闻稿、其官方社交媒体处理和在线新闻报道手工整理了各国索引案例的旅行历史,构建了这个 C19-TraNet 网络,该网络是一个时空、稀疏、不断增长的网络,由187个节点和199条边组成,遵循幂律度分布。为了对生长中的 C19-TraNet 进行建模,提出了一种新的随机无标度(SSF)算法,该算法考虑了节点和边在每个时间步的随机相加。在 C19-TraNet 中观察到一种特殊的连通性模式,拥有属性为一个四次多项式增长曲线,这种连通性模式与其1000个 SSF 实现的集合所得到的平均随机连通性模式存在显著差异。对 C19-TraNet 进行边界分割,发现大多数大型社区由属于不同世界区域的不同国家混合组成,这表明疾病的传播没有空间限制。这项工作描述了超级传播者的特征,他们通过多种传播途径,将病毒迅速传播到远距离的地理位置以及他们的邻近地区。


来源:集智斑图
编辑:王建萍


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