今天给大家推荐的书《The Complex Alternative：Complexity Scientists on the COVID-19 Pandemic》出自圣塔菲出版社，两任圣塔菲研究所所长David Krakauer和Geoffrey West作为主编，以复杂性科学的视角回顾了新冠疫情中人们的应对措施及新冠疫情对我们的影响，深刻反思了人们对于简单性的依赖，为后疫情时代复杂世界观的构建指明了道路。
从世界范围到局部区域，新冠疫情以前所未有的方式考验着我们的机构和社会。新型冠状病毒的快速传播及死亡人数的上升使得科学家、公共卫生官员和医疗专业人员不得不去及时了解它。这可能是世界上已知的最复杂和最具挑战性的公共卫生危机之一。
现在，距离新冠疫情在全球范围内蔓延已经有将近两年的时间了，研究人员开始反思这场流行病带来的诸多教训。《复杂性的别样视角：新冠流行中的复杂科学家》，圣塔菲（SFI）出版社的一本新书，提供了来自60多名圣塔菲研究所社区成员的反思和建议。在这本设计优雅的书中，来自各个科学领域的研究人员对各种话题进行了权衡，从模拟传播到面对不确定性时的决策，再到野生动物如何应对突然空旷的城市。这本书包含了对新冠疫情广泛影响的各种不同观点。
这些文章是为一般读者而写的，它们强调了在面对像全球性疫情这样复杂现象时，抵制简单答案的重要性，而未将重点放在认识复杂现象固有的混乱本质。SFI 的大卫·克拉考尔（David Krakauer）和杰弗里·韦斯特（Geoffrey West）在书的序言中写道，在疫情期间出现的问题大多可以归咎于过于简单、一刀切的“解决方案”，比如可疑的补救措施或不严格的隔离。尽管拥抱简单通常会带来极大的舒适感，但“有时伴随着简单的往往是无知。更令人担忧的是，人们渴望权宜之计——把每一件事或每一种现象解释得好像只有一个原因，并把现实压缩成一个线性的连锁叙事，其过去可以理解，未来可以预测。”他们补充说，这本书“拒绝简单的解释和解决方案，而倾向于齐心协力，与疫情的整个母体及其所有混乱的部分达成妥协。”
在我们努力掌握这场疫情造成的全面破坏程度之际，《复杂的选择》为我们所学到的东西提供了丰富且细致入微的洞察力，并且对我们应对下一次疫情做出了重要贡献。
Book Title：The Complex Alternative
Book Subtitle：Complexity Scientists on the COVID-19 Pandemic
Publisher：The Santa Fe Institute Press
杰弗里·韦斯特（Geoffrey West ），现年81岁，世界顶级理论物理学家，城市科学的顶尖学者。全球复杂性科学研究中心、“没有围墙的”学术圣地——圣塔菲研究所前所长，入选《时代周刊》全球最具影响力100人。数十年致力于“规模”（Scale）的研究工作，其研究成果被应用在理解生命体、城市可持续发展、企业运营等众多领域，被业内奉为“跨学科诺贝奖”的不二人。
大卫·克拉考尔（David Krakauer），进化生物学家，圣塔菲研究所现任所长及William H. Miller教授，同时担任威斯康星大学探索研究所主任，复杂性和群体计算中心联合主任，以及威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校的遗传学教授，致力于研究在生物学和文化中信息处理机制的进化史 ，2012年被《连线》杂志列为“将改变世界”的50人之一。
本章节将圣塔菲研究所 Transmission 系列论文和许多原作者的新思考，以及来自Transmission 系列的复杂性播客的文本。
本章节包括研究员撰写的新冠疫情相关的文章和评论，以及对2020年春天在新冠疫情第一线工作的 SFI 社区成员的播客采访。
本章节提供了2020年秋季应用复杂性网络研讨会（ Applied Complexity Network Symposium）的摘录，与研讨会上发言者的文章配对，深入探讨了会议期间提出的问题。
Introduction: The Complex Alternative, David Krakauer & Geoffrey West
BATCH 1: RIGOROUS UNCERTAINTY: SCIENCE DURING COVID-19
T-000: Citizen-Based Medicine, David Krakauer
T-001: Complex Crises & the Inevitability of Ethically Loaded Decisions, David Kinney
T-002: Reducing Conflicting Advice on Allowable Group Size, John Harte
T-003: Modeling the Effect of Social-Distancing Measures in the COVID-19 Pandemic, Luu Hoang Duc & Jürgen Jost
T-004: Thinking Out of Equilibrium, Simon DeDeo
P-001: Complexity Podcast Transmission Series Ep. 1, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield
BATCH 2: COVID-19 & COMPLEX TIME IN BIOLOGY & ECONOMICS
T-005: The Need for Disease Models which Capture Key Complexities of Transmissions, Andrew Dobson
T-006:Using Social Media Data to Detect Signatures of Global Crises, Miguel Fuentes
T-007:How to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality while Easing Economic Decline, Danielle Allen, E. Glen Weyl & Rajiv Sethi
T-008:The Importance of Timing in Restrictive Confinement, Michael Hochberg
T-009:How the Analogies We Live By Shape Our Thoughts, Melanie Mitchell
P-002:Complexity Podcast Transmission Series Ep. 2, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield
BATCH 3: ON CORONAVIRUS, CRISIS & CREATIVE OPPORTUNITY
T-010:Investment Strategies in Times of Crisis, William H. (Bill) Miller III
T-011:A Complex-Systems Perspective of Viruses, Santiago F. Elena
T-012:How Every Crisis is an Opportunity, Manfred D. Laubichler
T-013:Opportunities for Science Communicators, Mirta Galesic & Henrik Olsson
T-014:On Not Letting a Crisis Go to Waste, Doug Erwin
P-003:Complexity Podcast Transmission Series Ep. 3, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield
BATCH 4: RETHINKING OUR ASSUMPTIONS DURING THE COVID-19 CRISIS
T-015:Federalism in the Time of Pandemic, Anthony Eagan
T-016:The Future of Education, Carrie Cowan
T-017:Privacy Concerns that Arise with the Pandemic, Stephanie Forrest
T-018:Quantitative Ways to Consider the Economic Impact of COVID-19, Sidney Redner
T-019:Statistical Tools for Making Pandemic Predictions, David Wolpert
P-004:Complexity Podcast Transmission Series Ep. 4, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield
BATCH 5: EMBRACING COMPLEXITY FOR SYSTEMIC INTERVENTIONS
T-020:COVID Spiraling Frailty Syndrome, John W. Krakauer & Michelle C. Carlson
T-021:What History Can Teach Us about Resilience, Stefani Crabtree
T-022:The Informational Pitfalls of Selective Testing, Van Savage
T-023:Making Good Decisions under Uncertainty, David Tuckett, Lenny Smith, Gerd Gigerenzer & Jürgen Jost
T-024:The Heavy Tail of Outbreaks, Cristopher Moore
P-005:Complexity Podcast Transmission Series Ep. 5, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield
BATCH 6: EXPONENTIALS, ECONOMICS & ECOLOGY
T-025:Understanding Cities to Respond to Pandemics, Christopher P. Kempes & Geoffrey West
T-026:Mechanism Design for the Market, Eric Maskin
T-027:Studying Wildlife in Empty Cities, Pamela Yeh & Ian MacGregor-Fors
T-028:Exponential Growth Processes, Sidney Redner
T-029:SARS-CoV-2 & Landauer’s Bound, David Wolpert
P-006:Complexity Podcast Transmission Series Ep. 6, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield
BATCH 7: BETTER SCIENTIFIC MODELING FOR ECOLOGICAL & SOCIAL JUSTICE
T-030:Out-Evolving COVID-19, David Krakauer & Dan Rockmore
T-031:Models that Protect the Vulnerable, Melanie Moses & Kathy Powers
T-032:The Noisy Equilibrium of Disease Containment & Economic Pain, Jon Machta
T-033:How Pandemics Rapidly Reshape the Evolutionary & Ecological Landscape, Brian Enquist
P-007:Complexity Podcast Transmission Series Ep. 7, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield
BATCH 8: THE PANDEMIC & ITS AFTERMATH
T-034:Can Schools Open and Stay Open? Michael Lachmann & Spencer Fox
T-035: Info-Metrics for Modeling & Inference with Complex & Uncertain Pandemic Information, Amos Golan
T-036:Building Trust in COVID-19 Vaccines, Ramanan Laxminarayan, Susan Fitzpatrick & Simon Levin
Part Two: Interviews & Essays
I-001:Halting the Spread of COVID-19, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne (Complexity Podcast Ep. 24)
I-002:Modeling Disease Transmission & Interventions, Samuel V. Scarpino (Complexity Podcast Ep. 25)
I-003:Improving COVID-19 Surveillance & Response, Caroline Buckee (Complexity Podcast Ep. 28)
E-001:The Damage We’re Not Attending To, David Krakauer & Geoffrey West
E-002:Uncertain Times, Jessica C. Flack & Melanie Mitchell
Part Three: The Complexity of Crisis
Introduction: Applied Complexity in the Turbulent Disequilibrium, William Tracy & Casey Cox
Presented at the Applied Complexity Network Symposium in fall 2020
S-001:From Tunnel Vision to Lateral Vision—in the Media & Elsewhere, Gillian Tett
S-002:Lost Attraction: How Civilizations Transform, Marten Scheffer
S-003:Lessons Learned & Next Steps: An Epidemiological View of the COVID Crisis & Its Complexities, Lauren Ancel Meyers
S-004:Institutional Transitions & Economic Outcomes, Suresh Naidu
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